为什么印度年轻人那么多，经济却很差？
Why is India''s economy poor although it has so many youth?
译文简介
我认为首要原因是印度政府的“保留者优先于应得者”政策。
正文翻译
Why is India''s economy poor although it has so many youth?
为什么印度年轻人那么多，经济却很差？
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I think the number one reason is the Indian govt's "the reserved over the deserved" policy.
Let me explain.
The Indian govt enforces a number of schemes on the public based on the religion and the caste within the religion which each individual belongs to.
What's reserved for you depends on what religion and then what caste you belong to.
For this reason, obviously, people of certain religions/castes feel discriminated against.
These people leave India as soon as possible, because these people who are legally discriminated against are generally people who are more capable than the privileged ones.
So, the discriminated % of the population declines with time, while the privileged % increases.
When this happens, the pressure against the discriminated increases, forcing them to leave India even faster than before.
This is a cycle of disaster for India, that takes India's economy further and further downwards with time.
Even with entrepreneurship, Innovation, and no more diminishing returns, India's economy will still be bad without fixing this one major problem.
India's constitution claims the Indian govt to be a secular, but a secular govt doesn't take religion into account when it comes to governing a country.
The Indian govt should start acting like what it claims to be, and India will stop being so poor.
我认为首要原因是印度政府的“保留者优先于应得者”政策。
让我来解释一下。
印度政府根据每个人所属的宗教和宗教中的种姓对公众实施一系列计划。
为你保留什么取决于你属于什么宗教，然后是什么种姓。
因此，某些宗教/种姓的人显然会感到受到歧视。
这些人会尽快离开印度，因为这些在法律上受到歧视的人一般都是比特权阶层更有能力的人。
因此，随着时间的推移，受歧视人口的比例会下降，而特权人口的比例会上升。
当这种情况发生时，针对受歧视者的压力就会增加，迫使他们以比以前更快的速度离开印度。
这对印度来说是一个灾难循环，使印度的经济随着时间的推移越走越低。
即使有了创业精神、创新和不错的回报率，如果不解决这个主要问题，印度的经济仍然会很糟糕。
印度宪法宣称印度政府是世俗政府，但世俗政府在治理国家时不会考虑宗教因素。
印度政府应该开始像它宪法所宣称的那样行事，印度就不会再那么贫穷了。
PGDM from Institute for Technology and Management, Kharghar (Graduated 2009)
A big misconception.
I'll keep my answer short.
Number of tax payers in our country are very less and thats why the odficial figure shows that we are a poor economy.
But just consider the unorganized sector of our country, take your residential area as example. How many pan tapris and small kirana stores are there? And how many do you yourself perceive would be affluent?
These guys earn a lot of money, and all in cash. They don't pay their tax returns so this figure never makes it to the official stats, but honestly, these guys have lots of money.
I read somewhere that if we have a net worth of 1cr, we would be in top 1% of our country. Do you think thats true?
I agree, we have lot of poor people but the number is no where near to whats officially stated.
一个很大的误解。
我的回答会很简短。
我们国家的纳税人数量非常少，这就是为什么官方数据显示我们是一个贫穷的经济体。
但只要考虑一下我国的无组织部门，以你的住宅区为例。那里有多少家小摊贩和小型夫妻店？你自己认为有多少是富裕阶层？
这些人赚了很多钱，而且都是现金。他们不交税，所以这个数字从未出现在官方统计中，但老实说，这些人有很多钱。
我在某处读到过，如果我们的净资产达到一千万卢比，我们就能跻身全国前 1%。你认为这是真的吗？
我同意，我们有很多穷人，但这个数字与官方公布的数字相差甚远。
Lives in California (2000–present)
India's economy is often characterized as poor despite having a large youth population. To understand this phenomenon, it is essential to consider various factors that contribute to the country's economic situation.
1. Population and Demographics:
India has a significant youth population, with approximately 65% of its population below the age of 35. While having a young population can be advantageous for economic growth, it also presents challenges. The sheer size of the population puts pressure on resources, infrastructure, and employment opportunities. Providing education, healthcare, and employment opportunities for such a vast number of people is a complex task that requires substantial investment and planning.
2. Income Inequality:
One of the key reasons for India's economic disparity is income inequality. Despite overall economic growth, wealth distribution remains highly skewed, with a significant portion of the population living in poverty. The concentration of wealth in the hands of a few exacerbates the gap between the rich and the poor, limiting opportunities for upward mobility and hindering overall economic progress.
3. Education and Skills Gap:
While India has made significant strides in improving access to education, there are still challenges in terms of quality and relevance. Many young Indians lack access to quality education and vocational training programs that equip them with the necessary skills for employment in a rapidly changing job market. This skills gap hampers productivity and limits job prospects for the youth.
4. Unemployment and Underemployment:
India faces high levels of unemployment and underemployment, particularly among its youth. Despite being educated, many young Indians struggle to find suitable employment opportunities due to various factors such as limited job creation, lack of industry-relevant skills, and inadequate infrastructure in rural areas where a significant portion of the population resides.
5. Infrastructure and Investment:
India's economic growth is also hindered by inadequate infrastructure, including transportation, power supply, and digital connectivity. Insufficient investment in infrastructure development limits productivity, hampers business growth, and restricts the overall potential of the economy.
6. Governance and Corruption:
Challenges related to governance and corruption also impact India's economic performance. Inefficient bureaucracy, red tape, and corruption can deter foreign direct investment, hinder business growth, and create an unfavorable environment for economic development.
7. Agricultural Dependence:
A significant portion of India's population is engaged in agriculture, which remains a low-productivity sector. Dependence on agriculture makes the economy vulnerable to factors such as climate change, fluctuating global commodity prices, and limited access to modern farming techniques. The lack of diversification into higher value-added industries further constrains economic growth.
8. Geopolitical Factors:
India's geopolitical position and regional dynamics also play a role in its economic performance. Factors such as border disputes, political instability in neighboring countries, and global trade dynamics can impact India's trade relationships, investment inflows, and overall economic stability.
In conclusion, India's economy faces various challenges despite having a large youth population. Income inequality, education and skills gaps, unemployment, inadequate infrastructure, governance issues, agricultural dependence, and geopolitical factors all contribute to the country's economic struggles. Addressing these challenges requires comprehensive policy interventions that focus on inclusive growth, skill development, infrastructure development, job creation, and reducing income disparities.
尽管印度拥有大量青年人口，但其经济却常常被描述为贫穷。要理解这一现象，就必须考虑造成该国经济状况的各种因素。
1. 人口和人口统计：
印度青年人口众多，约 65% 的人口年龄在 35 岁以下。虽然年轻人口对经济增长有利，但也带来了挑战。庞大的人口数量给资源、基础设施和就业机会带来了压力。为如此众多的人口提供教育、医疗和就业机会是一项复杂的任务，需要大量的投资和规划。
2. 收入不平等：
印度经济差距的主要原因之一是收入不平等。尽管总体经济有所增长，但财富分配仍然高度倾斜，相当一部分人口生活在贫困之中。财富集中在少数人手中加剧了贫富差距，限制了向上流动的机会，阻碍了整体经济进步。
3. 教育和技能差距：
虽然印度在改善受教育机会方面取得了长足进步，但在教育质量和相关性方面仍存在挑战。许多印度年轻人缺乏接受优质教育和职业培训的机会，无法在瞬息万变的就业市场上掌握必要的就业技能。这种技能差距阻碍了生产力，限制了年轻人的就业前景。
4. 失业和就业不足：
印度面临着高失业率和就业不足的问题，尤其是年轻人。尽管许多印度年轻人受过教育，但由于各种因素，如创造的就业机会有限、缺乏行业相关技能、农村地区基础设施不足等，他们很难找到合适的就业机会。
5. 基础设施和投资：
交通、电力供应和数字连接等基础设施不足也阻碍了印度的经济增长。基础设施建设投资不足限制了生产力，阻碍了企业发展，制约了经济的整体潜力。
6. 治理和腐败：
与治理和腐败相关的挑战也影响着印度的经济表现。效率低下的官僚主义、繁文缛节和腐败会阻碍外国直接投资，阻碍企业发展，并为经济发展创造不利环境。
7. 农业依赖：
印度很大一部分人口从事农业，而农业仍然是一个低生产力部门。对农业的依赖使经济容易受到气候变化、全球商品价格波动以及现代农业技术有限等因素的影响。缺乏向高附加值产业的多样化发展进一步制约了经济增长。
8. 地缘政治因素：
印度的地缘政治地位和地区动态也对其经济表现产生影响。边界争端、邻国政局不稳和全球贸易动态等因素都会影响印度的贸易关系、投资流入和整体经济稳定。
总之，尽管印度拥有大量青年人口，但其经济仍面临着各种挑战。收入不平等、教育和技能差距、失业、基础设施不足、治理问题、对农业的依赖以及地缘政治因素都是印度经济陷入困境的原因。要应对这些挑战，就必须采取全面的政策干预措施，重点关注包容性增长、技能发展、基础设施建设、创造就业和缩小收入差距。
At my grandparents time, one farm was enough to provide for raising 7 kids, their social needs and marriage. Accommodating 10s of kids at summer for few months was welcomed, never disliked. There was not plenty to go around but happy times was plenty, not a dull moment before going to bad. Today needs have multiplied but way to fulfill is in short supply, so you can see not much wealth. If western world is put thru this situation of too many against too less resources, we may see worst than what Asian are today.
在我的祖父母时代，一个农场就足以养育 7 个孩子，满足他们的社交需求和婚姻需要。在夏天的几个月里，容纳十几个孩子是一件很受欢迎的事，从来没有人不喜欢。虽然没有太多的事情可做，但快乐的时光总是充实的，玩到累极了也不会有沉闷的时刻。如今，需求成倍增长，但满足需求的方式却不多，所以你看不到多少财富。如果西方世界经历这种人多资源少的情况，我们可能会看到比今天亚洲更糟糕的情况。
Public Sector ConsultantJul
To understand this, we need to take a view as to how countries lift themselves out of poverty. This typically happens when countries ride a major industrial shift in business models / tech. For eg, many parts of South East Asia , China rode this boom in the wake of globalization when factories from US or Europe moved over there. Large segments of population in India made advantage of IT boom to get themselves out of poverty/ low income trap. But at this stage, only boom happening in industry is only an advanced tech boom based on AI, which can create a few high skilled jobs, but will largely displace lot of mid-skill jobs.
Another factor in India is the abysmally low rate of women employment. To understand how critical it is, if the woman in the family is employed, it would increase the disposable income of the household, consequently enabling lot of consumption and service centric employment in the local economy. One major factor in Taiwan lifting themselves into the developed world was the focus on industries centered on female employment as well as social infrastructure and policies promoting women to go out and work. This has huge potential to create a strong consumption based economy. This piece is missing in India, even in metros for low/medium income segment.
Also the social safety net in India is very week. People save and park their money in illiquid assets such as land and gold because they are worried about how they can insure themselves against inflation in healthcare, children’s education etc. This creates huge drain in economic potential and reduces money that could have been spent in consumption otherwise.
We are at a stage where we cannot expect manufacturing to lift us out of poverty. A strong focus on generating local consumption and developing industries associated with that will generate long term prosperity.
要理解这一点，我们需要了解各国是如何摆脱贫困的。这种情况通常发生在国家的商业模式/技术发生重大产业转变的时候。例如，随着全球化的发展，美国或欧洲的工厂纷纷迁往中国，东南亚和中国的许多地区都赶上了这股热潮。印度的大部分人口利用信息技术的繁荣摆脱了贫困/低收入陷阱。但在现阶段，工业领域出现的唯一繁荣只是基于人工智能的先进技术繁荣，它可以创造一些高技能的工作岗位，但在很大程度上会取代大量中等技能的工作岗位。
印度的另一个因素是女性就业率低得可怜。要了解这一点有多重要，如果家庭中的妇女就业，就会增加家庭的可支配收入，从而在当地经济中创造大量以消费和服务为中心的就业机会。台湾跻身发达（地区）行列的一个重要因素，就是注重以妇女就业为中心的产业，以及促进妇女外出工作的社会基础设施和政策。这对于创造以消费为基础的强大经济具有巨大的潜力。印度缺少这一块，即使在大都市中的中低收入阶层也是如此。
此外，印度的社会安全网也非常薄弱。人们将钱存起来并投入土地和黄金等非流动资产中，因为他们需要担心自己怎么才能免受医疗保健、儿童教育等方面的通货膨胀的影响。这造成了经济潜力的巨大流失，减少了原本可以用于消费的资金。
我们已经到了不能指望制造业帮助我们摆脱贫困的阶段。把重点放在创造本地消费和发展与之相关的产业上，才能实现长期繁荣。
Former Engineer
Population: leads to more people less resources, less money for educating children, more competition and struggle to live, uneducated non tech labor, no growth of country due to poorly skilled due to lack of funds which diverted to satisfy large scale hunger, etc. Poor education lead to poor mannerism.
Religions: India has many religions. All religions still advocate olden rules make people not to think much and only follow, also leading to conflicts as people are dumb to understand core part of all religions which is essentially mostly same. Some part of religion are against each other leading to fights among ourselves, not just India but everywhere. Part of religions leading to upper and lower castes and conflicts.
Warring neighbors: Pakistan China, 2 big nations are warring with India for decades, leading to loss of lives, money and purchasing equipment, which could otherwise be spent on economy and wellbeing of people. They are scared of resurgent India they think could pose problem for them later.
Hawkey West: West Supported India through grants, investments, tech companies, which could otherwise long march for India to come up on its own, but at same time West want to dominate east by controlling, subjugating, siphoning east nations including India. This leading to rich/corrupt people migrating to west for better prospectus instead of improving India. West technologically dominated in many aspects, India struggle to catch up with it, never reaching developed nation status in spite of vast cultivatable land and resources.
人口：导致人多资源少，用于教育孩子的资金减少，竞争加剧，生活艰难，未受过教育的非技术劳工，由于资金短缺而转变为大规模饥饿的需求，导致技术水平低下，国家发展停滞不前，等等。不良教育导致不良行为。
宗教：印度有许多宗教。所有的宗教都仍然倡导古老的教规，使人们不加思考，一味追随，这也导致了冲突，因为人们不了解所有宗教的核心部分，而这些部分基本上是相同的。宗教的某些部分相互对立，导致了我们之间的争斗，不仅是印度，世界各地都是如此。部分宗教导致上下种姓和冲突。
邻国交战：巴基斯坦、中国这两个大国几十年来一直与印度交战，造成了生命、金钱和设备的损失，而这些本可以用于经济和人民福祉。他们害怕印度东山再起，认为这可能会给他们带来麻烦。
精明的西方：西方国家通过赠款、投资、科技公司等方式支持印度，否则印度可能要走很长的路才能自力更生，但与此同时，西方国家却想通过控制、征服、虹吸包括印度在内的东方国家来主宰东方。这导致富人/腐败分子为了更好的发展前景移民到西方，而不是改善印度。西方在许多方面都占据技术主导地位，印度虽然在奋力追赶，尽管拥有广袤的可耕地和资源，却从未达到发达国家的水平。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Astrologer 8828686329 (1995–present)
I am not expert economist, but I will tell my opinion. India is paying huge money from income to buying petrol, diesel,gas etc. When India get shifted to solar/wind/green hydrogen we can save lots of money,even if we sale green hydrogen to other countries then also we can earn money.
When we will achieve this we can become rich country and our youth will get lots of opportunities, education etc.
我不是经济学专家，但我想谈谈我的看法。印度在购买汽油、柴油、天然气等方面花费了巨额收入。当印度转向太阳能/风能/绿色氢能时，我们可以节省大量资金，即使我们向其他国家出售绿色氢能，我们也可以赚钱。
当我们实现这一目标时，我们将成为富裕的国家，我们的年轻人将获得大量的机会和教育等。
Member, IIT Network
While India was the fastest-growing of the five largest world economies in 2022, real spending power still lies largely in the hands of a lucky few. India’s gross domestic product per capita was just $2,257 in 2021 against China’s $12,556 according to the World Bank.
The scope for discretionary spending is much more limited than in China or even Indonesia, according to HSBC.
India’s wage earners often have more mouths to feed, the bank says, given low female labor-force participation and large family sizes.
High unemployment remains an enormous challenge, largely because India’s private sector remains cautious about investing in the formal economy.
Mahesh Vyas, the chief executive of the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, says India needs to create an environment that encourages large-scale private-sector investment—something that has been absent for several years now, he says.
In contrast, China has been extraordinarily successful at funneling its enormous population into the global manufacturing labor force. Manufacturing was 27% of China’s economy in 2021 versus just 14% of India’s, according to the World Bank.
And while India’s recent policies to boost Indian manufacturing have met with some marked successes, much more is still needed—especially heavier infrastructure investment and labor-market reforms.
There you have it. All the advice you need to get ahead.
India has to leverage its enormous human resources to become a superpower—attracting enormous investment inflows in the process.
虽然印度是 2022 年世界五大经济体中增长最快的国家，但实际消费能力仍主要掌握在少数幸运儿手中。根据世界银行的数据，2021 年印度的人均国内生产总值仅为 2,257 美元，而中国为 12,556 美元。
汇丰银行认为，与中国甚至印尼相比，印度人可自由支配的支出范围要有限得多。
该行表示，由于女性劳动力参与率低和家庭人口众多，印度的工薪阶层往往需要养活更多的人。
高失业率仍然是一个巨大的挑战，这主要是因为印度的私营部门对投资正规经济仍持谨慎态度。
印度经济监测中心首席执行官马赫什-维亚斯说，印度需要创造一个鼓励私营部门大规模投资的环境--他说，这种环境已经缺失了好几年。
相比之下，中国在将其庞大的人口转化为全球制造业劳动力方面却异常成功。根据世界银行的数据，2021 年制造业占中国经济的 27%，而印度仅占 14%。
虽然印度近期促进印度制造业发展的政策取得了一些显著成效，但仍有许多工作要做，尤其是加大基础设施投资和劳动力市场改革力度。
就是这样。这就是你想要出人头地的所有建议。
印度必须利用其巨大的人力资源成为超级大国，并在此过程中吸引大量投资流入。
Lawyer
To start, Indian economy is not poor. India is the world fifth largest economy, bigger than even UK. So no India as a nation and government is not poor. With a per capita income of $2600 India is a lower middle income country. It is stated by 2040 India will be a high middle income country.
However India is an extremely unequal country.
There are several reasons why so many Indians are poor and people have given answers elaborately. It all ties down to corruption. The politicians in India are so corrupt they don’t care about these youth. They don’t care to give best education to these youths nor do they care to employ them. We have always had many youth ever since 1947. We were always a young nation which is why we developed so fast. But not as fast as China because China does reverse corruption. Corruption to do more than needed. It results inevitably development of the country and still money to people. India on other hand does red tape negative corruption. Corruption which stops even the development that is going to happen. Governments came and went yet corruption still is same as it was 20 years ago. Actually it’s even worse now. And with the added climate change we are seeing the fruits of the corruption resulting in floods, demolished encroached buildings of ministers. Nature took the palm right through the corruption. Yet still they will build it again at same place without caring it could flood again.
THAT is the problem of India and why despite having all resources, money and youth we are still poor. Resources are being looted by Amabanis and Birlas, money is being looted by politicians and rich, while youth and common man is being neglected like always.
首先，印度经济并不差。印度是世界第五大经济体，甚至比英国还大。因此，印度作为一个国家和政府并不贫穷。印度的人均收入为 2600 美元，属于中低收入国家。据说到 2040 年，印度将成为中等偏上收入国家。
然而，印度是一个极不平等的国家。
造成如此多印度人贫穷的原因有很多，人们已经给出了详尽的答案。这一切都与腐败有关。印度的政客们非常腐败，他们根本不关心这些年轻人。他们不关心为这些年轻人提供最好的教育，也不关心如何雇用他们。自 1947 年以来，我们一直拥有许多青年。我们一直是一个年轻的国家，这就是为什么我们发展得如此之快。但没有中国快，因为中国有反向的腐败。腐败是为了做更多的事。其结果必然是国家的发展和人民的财富。而印度则是繁文缛节的消极腐败。腐败甚至阻碍了将要发生的发展。政府换了又换，但腐败依然如故。事实上，现在的情况更糟。随着气候变化的加剧，我们看到了腐败的成果，即导致洪水泛滥，部长们的建筑被冲毁。大自然的手掌直接穿过了腐败。然而，他们仍然会在同一个地方再次修建，而丝毫不顾及可能再次发生的洪水。
这就是印度的问题所在，也是为什么尽管拥有所有资源、金钱和年轻人，我们仍然贫穷的原因。资源被阿巴尼们和比尔拉们掠夺，金钱被政客和富人掠夺，而年轻人和普通人却一如既往地被忽略。
Data Scientist (2018–present)
Indians were actually poor till independence, and has developed a colonised mindset. We now have more resources, but remained stuck in it till our generation. Things are now changing for kids, but they will take decades to grow up and change the scenario
If we consider our generation, we were taught to keep growing our knowledge within the radius of curriculum. The ultimate goal was to get the best possible means of income. As a result, those who lagged behind in this rat race got frustrated, and start working unethically - with the only goal of chasing money by lying, stealing, manipulating, scamming etc. Servants, maids, labour etc in developed countries rarely cut corners or steal on their job; but in India, everyone is lazy and unreliable. How do we expect an economy to become very rich, when entry level workers, who form the foundation of the economy, have this type of mindset ?
This also explains why software based businesses succeeded in India when manufacturing sector failed - they do not require workers in their core function.
印度人在独立前其实一直很穷，并形成了殖民地思维。我们现在有了更多的资源，但直到我们这一代人还停留在这种状态。现在，孩子们的情况正在发生变化，但他们需要几十年的时间才能成长起来，改变现状。
如果考虑到我们这一代人，我们被教育要在课程范围内不断增长知识。我们的终极目标是获得尽可能好的收入。结果，那些在这场低效竞争中落后的人感到沮丧，开始干些不道德的事情--唯一的目的就是通过撒谎、偷窃、操纵、诈骗等手段追逐金钱。发达国家的仆人、女佣、劳工等在工作中很少偷工减料或偷窃；但在印度，每个人都懒惰而不可靠。如果构成经济基础的初级工人都抱有这种心态，我们怎么能指望一个经济体变得非常富裕呢？
这也解释了为什么以软件为基础的企业在印度取得了成功，而制造业却失败了--因为它们的核心职能不需要工人。
India was captured by the East India Company with just Thirty Six permanent employees. A country’s strength is it's organisation. Then England was better organized under the merchant capitalists while India was reeling under a bunch of military dictatorship and regular looting of Maratha Peshwas. So, it was an easy pick for the European.
Coming to present day, our economy is not welfare oriented like the socialist countries nor an efficient capitalist system like America Or Germany. What we have here is crony capitalism. It is the few big business who make profit by making the government to pass laws to suit them. This form combines the worst aspects of capitalism and socialism.
Our education system is a joke and labour practice is horrible. So the economy stagnates.
东印度公司占领印度时只有 36 名长期雇员。一个国家的力量在于它的组织。当时，英国在商人资本家的领导下组织得更好，而印度则在一群军事独裁者和马拉塔-佩什瓦人的定期掠夺下摇摇欲坠。因此，欧洲人很容易就征服了印度。
时至今日，我们的经济既不像社会主义国家那样以福利为导向，也不像美国或德国那样是高效的资本主义体系。我们这里的是裙带资本主义。少数大企业通过让政府通过适合它们的法律来牟利。这种形式结合了资本主义和社会主义最糟糕的方面。
我们的教育制度是个笑话，劳动实践也很糟糕。因此，经济停滞不前。