如果印度在1947年没有被分治，会发生什么（二）

Anonymous
What would have happened if India was not partitioned?
I dont want to be harsh on anyone or any faith. What I m telling is facts. Period. Zero opinion. I chose to post this anonymously because i dislike writing this. But a fact is a fact. This review is purely technical in nature.
This part of the world would have become the hell hole. There would be private armies consolidating into 2 factions . To attack and to defend. Law and order would be a joke. The entire government machinery would split vertically and align with either of these factions. By this time, the whole of the region would have become Muslim majority or substantially significant population. There isnt anything like good or bad, right or wrong. Everything is justified in one faith and there are limits to the human endurance. The population will not be distributed and mixed with all faiths. Ghettos would be formed sporadically besides polarization to the majority regions. The whole nation would be going through a civil war until either of them win and the other get slaughtered.
Sounds illogical? Now please find answers for the following questions yourself.

如果印度没有被分治，会发生什么？
我不想对任何人或任何信仰去苛责，我说的是事实，仅此而已。我选择匿名发布这篇文章是因为我不喜欢写这篇帖子。但事实就是事实，严格意义来说这篇评论纯本质性内容。
世界的这一部分会变成地狱，会有私人军队合并成两个派别：进攻派和防守派。法律和秩序将成为一个笑话。整个政府机构将垂直分裂，并与这两个派别中的任何一方结盟。到那时，整个地区将成为穆斯林人口占大多数或占相当大比例的区域。没有好与坏、对与错之分。在一个信仰里，一切都是正当的，人的忍耐是有限的。人口不会被分配，也不会被混杂着各种信仰。除了大多数地区的两极分化之外，还会偶尔形成贫民区。整个国家都将经历一场内战，直到他们中的任何一方获胜，另一方被屠杀。
听起来不合逻辑？现在请你自己找到以下问题的答案。

What was the demographics of present Pakistan before and after independence. Before partition, Pakistan had 24 percentage of people other than muslims. Likewise, Indian side of Punjab had 52 percentage of Muslim population before partition. Knowing that the two faiths cannot live peacefully, there was an exodus altering the demographics into 15 percent hindus in pakistan side and 2 percent muslims in indian side of punjab.
Everyone knows that the minorities population in pakistan is below 2 percent now. Did people of other faith evaporated from the land of Pakistan? Likewise is the history of Bangladesh or Kashmir or Iran or Egypt or anywhere islam has spread. 
Now lets get introduced to some technical words relevant to this subject.
1. Dar al-dawa (House of invitation - infiltration in groups seeking refuge for peaceful living)
2. Dar al-Amn (House of safety - seek religious right to practice islam)
3. Dar al-Ahd (House of Truce - state of unrest between the groups)
4. Dar al-Sulh (House of Treaty - negotiate the terms of existence)
5. Dar al-Hudna (House of Peace - till any truce arise or 10 years whichever is less unilaterally decided by the islamic side irrespective of the matter at hand or justice of the other side)
Now the process get interesting.
6. Dar al-Harab (House of War - openly start revolting against the establishment and war with the infidels / non believers i.e., non muslims
7. Dar al-Islam (House of Islam - where a islamic sharia is in force)
Now Pakistan is Dar al islam. 
The entire history of spread of islam is in these stages. People may argue its not told in the scxture but this is the truth you like it or not.
Its not that people of other faith are tolerant enough to co exist but its the total disregard by islam on other faiths make this work.
I dont care about upvotes, downvotes or anything. This is a fact. Please refute if at all with facts please. No quotes from those words of God. The proof of the pudding is in the eating. Please quote history with place and date.

现在巴基斯坦独立前后的人口结构是怎样的。在分治之前，巴基斯坦有24%的人口不是穆斯林。同样，印度旁遮普邦在分治前有52%的穆斯林人口。深知信仰穆斯林和不信仰穆斯林的人无法和平共处，人口外流使巴基斯坦一侧的印度教徒占15%，旁遮普邦印度一侧的穆斯林占2%。
每个人都知道现在巴基斯坦的少数民族人口不到2%。其他信仰的人从巴基斯坦土地上蒸发了吗？孟加拉国、克什米尔、伊朗、埃及或伊斯兰教传播的地方的历史也是如此。
现在让我们来介绍一下与这个主题相关的一些专用词汇。
1.Dar al-dawa（邀请之家-渗透到寻求和平生活庇护的团体中）
2.Dar al-Amn（安全之家-寻求信奉伊斯兰教的宗教权利）
3.Dar al-Ahd（休战之家-团体之间的不稳定状态）
4.达尔苏丹（条约之家-谈判存在的条件）
5.Dar al-Hudna（和平之家-直到休战来临或10年期都可以（前提是以时间较短的一方为准），由伊斯兰一方单方面决定，而不考虑事态或另一方的正义与否）
现在这个过程变得有趣起来。
6.Dar al-Harab（战争之家——公开开始反抗政府，并与异教徒/非信徒(即非穆斯林)开战）
7.Dar al-Islam（伊斯兰之家——伊斯兰教法在那里生效）
现在巴基斯坦是伊斯兰王国。
整个伊斯兰教传播的历史就是在这些阶段。人们可能会说这不是圣经里说的，但不管你喜不喜欢，这就是事实。
这并不是说其他信仰的人足够宽容，可以共存，而是伊斯兰教对其他信仰的存在完全无视才使这一点得以实现。
我不在乎点赞、点踩或其他什么。这是事实。请用事实来反驳。不要引用上帝的话，毕竟“布丁好不好，吃了才知道”。对了，请注明时间和地点。

Ravi K
Would the Indian subcontinent have been better off as one nation?
This might be a controversial answer, but here is what the alternative history would have been like:
Political issues:
The Indian National Congress would have been the strongest party post-British Raj because it played a central role in the independence movement. This party would have won most of the elections for a couple of decades.
There would have been an All India Muslim league, which would have been the second largest national party. It would have been very successful in areas like Bengal, Hyderabad, all the states of Pakistan, Kashmir, etc.
There is a good possibility that the BJP would have emerged at a later stage, but would have been a weaker party. It is because with the presence of the Muslim League, both INC and BJP would have been perceived as Hindu parties.
Imagine all the regional parties that would have come up. There would have been one each for Sinhalese, Gorkhas, Balochis, Pashtuns, Bhutanese, Bengalis, Tamils, Telugus, etc.
In addition, throw in a bunch of  LTTE, Maoists insurgents, Islamic fundamentalists, etc.
South Asian unx - a failed state?
All this means that the very notion of democracy wouldn't have made any sense at all. The idea of democracy is not to have a political party for every votebank and create a dysfunctional coalition. This hypothetical country would have got caught in the coalition politics and would have lost its way.
The main reason why Indian democracy works is because regional parties are limited only to a couple of states and every state (except Tamil Nadu) has a national party in the ruling or the opposition. I don't think this would have been the case if the SAU came into existence.

印度次大陆作为一个国家会更好吗？
这可能是一个有争议的答案，但这是另一种历史的样子:
政治问题：
印度国大党将是英国统治后最强大的政党，因为它在独立运动中发挥了核心作用。这个政党将赢得几十年来的大部分选举。
会有一个全印度穆斯林联盟，它会成为全国第二大政党——在孟加拉、海得拉巴、巴基斯坦所有邦、克什米尔等地区，将具备极大影响力。
印度人民党很有可能在后期出现，但会是一个较弱势的政党。这是因为有了穆斯林联盟的存在，印度民族党和印度人民党都会被视为印度教政党。
想象一下，所有的地区政党都会出现：僧伽罗人、廓尔喀人、俾路支斯坦人、普什图人、不丹人、孟加拉人、泰米尔人、泰卢固人等各有一个。
此外，还有泰米尔猛虎组织、毛派叛乱分子、伊斯兰原教旨主义者等一众党派。
南亚联盟——在失效状态？
所有这一切都意味着民主的概念根本就没有任何意义。民主的理念不是让每个“选票库”都有一个政党，并建立一个功能失调的联盟。这个假想的国家会陷入联合政治，迷失方向。
印度民主之所以有效，主要是因为地区政党仅限于几个邦，每个邦（泰米尔纳德邦除外）都有一个执政党或反对党。我认为如果南亚联盟（SAU）成立的话，情况就不会是这样了。

Also, the Muslim voters in India are very evenly spread out in all constituencies, along the length and the breadth of the country which rules out the possibility of a national party that caters to Muslims in specific (like the All India Muslim League). This helped the Indian Muslims join the mainstream politics through Indian national congress, etc. and lead to their active participation in the Indian democracy. Now, in the hypothetical SAU this would not have been possible and on the contrary it would have lead to a parallel religious identity.
You should also consider that most of India's neighbors are extremely unstable and permanently stuck in crises. Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Myanmar were all politically unstable since they became independent. There is no evidence to prove that, these crises would have been averted by the creation of the SAU.
Personal opinions:
I personally feel that a SAU excluding Pakistan would not have been very different from the India today. We would have still been able to build a strong, successful liberal, democracy- but that is my personal opinion. 
People should realize that creation of Pakistan was not a mistake. It was an idea whose time had come. The mistake in my opinion was the nuclearisation of Pakistan. This lead to an asymmetric shift in the balance of power and increased the war mongering in the Indian subcontinent.

此外，印度的穆斯林选民在全国范围内的所有选区分布非常均匀，这排除了成立一个专门迎合穆斯林的全国性政党（如全印度穆斯林联盟）的可能性。这有助于印度穆斯林通过印度国民大会等方式加入主流政治，并使他们在印度的民主下积极参与（议事）。现在，在假设的南亚联盟（SAU）中，这是不可能的，相反，它会导致相当的宗教身份。
你还应该考虑到，印度的大多数邻国都极不稳定，永远陷入危机。巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、尼泊尔、斯里兰卡、阿富汗和缅甸自独立以来政治都不稳定。这些危机本可以通过成立南亚联盟（SAU）来避免。
个人看法：
我个人认为，一个不包括巴基斯坦的南亚联盟（SAU）和今天的印度没有太大区别。我们仍然能够建立一个强大、成功的自由民主国家——但这是我个人的观点。
人们应该意识到，建立巴基斯坦并不是一个错误。这个想法的时机当时已经成熟。在我看来，错误在于巴基斯坦的核武化。这导致了力量平衡的不对称转移，并让印度次大陆的战争贩子变得增多起来。

Yashwant Kumar
What would happen if India and Pakistan were not partitioned in 1947?
India still would be the 7th largest country in the world.
India could have been the most populated country by 2011.
The state of Bengal would have been the more populous than Uttar Pradesh and also would have been the most populous state/province in the world.
India’s first bullet train would have been between Mumbai and Karachi, via Ahmedabad.
Muslims could have visited Jama Masjid, Hindus to Hinglaj Devi Temple and Sikhs to Gurdwara Janam Asthan.
The national cricket team would have been unbeatable. Imagine Wasim Akram, Sachin Tendulkar, Waqar Yunus, Shahid Afridi, Sourav Ganguly in the same team.
What if S.P.Bala Subramanyam and Rahat Fateh Ali Khan sang a song together. It would have been the chart buster for decades.
We need not allocate humongous budget for Defense. Education and Health would have been given the highest priority.
Country’s economy would have been better. Might be the second largest GDP in the world, second only to USA.

如果1947年印度和巴基斯坦没有分治，会发生什么？
印度仍然是世界第七大国家。
到2011年，印度可能成为人口最多的国家。
孟加拉将是人口最多的邦，也将是世界上人口最多的州/省级行政区域。
印度的第一列子弹头列车将在孟买和卡拉奇之间，途经艾哈迈达巴德。
穆斯林可以去参观贾玛清真寺，印度教徒可以参观巴基斯坦的Hinglaj女神神庙，锡克教徒可以参观印度的Gurdwara Janam Asthan（锡克教堂）。
国家板球队会是不可战胜的。想象一下，Wasim Akram、Sachin Tendulkar、Waqar Yunus、Shahid Afridi、Sourav Ganguly这些人将出现在同一支队伍中。
如果S.P.Bala Subramanyam和Rahat Fateh Ali Khan一起唱一首歌呢?这首歌可能会在几十年内占据排行榜榜首。
我们不需要为国防分配巨额预算。教育和卫生将被列为最优先事项。
这个国家的经济会更好。可能成为世界第二大GDP，仅次于美国。

The country would have been much more peaceful.
Osama-Bin-Laden would not have been found in Abottabad.
Mohammad Ali Jinnah would been awarded the Bharat Ratna.
Dibrugarh-Gwadar train would have the longest train in the country. Trains would have been named on Jinnah and Bhutto.
We would not have witnessed Indo-Pak wars of 1947, 1965, 1971 and Kargil War of 1999.
India may/may not have been a nuclear state. The threat from our North-Eastern neighbor would have decided it.
Lesser terror attacks in the country.
More religious harmony in the country. Less hatred between Hindu and Muslims.
Talibans would have been the largest threat to the country.

这个国家会更加和平。
奥萨马·本·拉登不会在阿博塔巴德(Abottabad)市被发现。
穆罕默德·阿里·真纳将被授予印度国宝勋章。
迪布鲁格尔-瓜达尔列车将是该国最长的列车。火车会以真纳和布托命名。
我们不会目睹1947年、1965年、1971年的印巴战争和1999年的卡吉尔战争。
印度可能是，也可能不是一个核国家。来自我们东北部邻国的威胁会决定这一点。
该国发生的恐怖袭击会较少。
这个国家的宗教更加和谐，印度教和穆斯林之间的仇恨减少了。
塔利班将是该国最大的威胁。

Abhishek Inamdar
What would happen if India and Pakistan were not partitioned in 1947?
We need to understand the situation of 1947.
People were highly communalised. 
Even if partition had not happened, there would still be atmosphere of communal distrust. It wouldn't have been rosey situation wherein all live in harmony. Remember, people were communalised and even Mahatma had to accept it.
The last and only alternative to partition was The Cabinet Mission plan. Under it, only three subjects- defence, communication and foreign affairs would have been with Central government and we'd have very strong ( practically independent) states. So, apart from Pakistan, there would have been other powerful regional governments and leaders. India would have suffered more.
Other important point is, had partition not happened, we'd have afganistan next door. We would have to deal with al-quida, Taliban and even isis to some extent. Imagine the possible havoc they would cause. Today India is comparatively well protected as Pakistan acts as a buffer.
Probably, Kashmir would not be a big issue. ( I think all the states having much more powers than Kashmir has today makes it unimportant). But imagine if some ambitious leader wants to form a centalised government. Much bigger problems than Kashmir could rise all over India.
On a lighter note, sure we'd have better cricket team, better tourism apportunities etc.

如果1947年印度和巴基斯坦没有分治，会发生什么？
我们需要了解1947年的情况。
人们高度社区化。
即使没有分治，仍然会有群体间不信任的气氛。这不会是一个所有人都和谐相处的美好局面。记住，人们被社群化了，甚至圣雄甘地也不得不接受它。
最后一个也是唯一的分割方案之外，还有一个叫做内阁代表团计划（Cabinet Mission plan）。根据该计划，只有国防、通信和外交事务这三个领域属于中央政府管辖，其他方面将由非常强大（实际上独立）的地方政府负责。因此，除了巴基斯坦外，印度还将有其他强大的地区政府和领导人存在。然而，印度可能会承受更多的困难。
另一个重要的观点是，如果没有分治，我们隔壁就会是阿富汗。我们将不得不在某种程度上与基地组织、塔利班甚至伊斯兰国打交道。想象一下他们可能造成的浩劫。如今，由于巴基斯坦充当了缓冲区，印度受到了相对较好的保护。
克什米尔也许不是什么大问题。（我认为拥有所有的邦的权利肯定比拥有克什米尔带来的权力更大，这使得它不重要)。但想象一下，如果某个雄心勃勃的领导人想要组建一个中央集权政府。比克什米尔更大的问题可能会在印度各地出现。
说得轻松一点，我们肯定会有更好的板球队，更好的旅游机会等等。

Bushra Khan
Why did a large number of Muslims decide to stay in India after partition in 1947?
First wife of my maternal grandfather left him because he wanted to stay in India and she wanted to move to Pakistan. I asked my grandfather why he took this decision, knowing that he’ll never see his wife again.
Me - Nana why didn't you leave India at the time of partition, when many muslims did?
Him - How could a person leave his own country? Where he has spent his childhood, made memories, where he has his house and his people.
Me - But your wife, you knew that you’ll never see her again if you stayed in India?
Him - I had decided that I would not leave India, whatever may happen. But she wanted to move to Pakistan, thats why she left and I didn't even stop her.
Me - But there were riots everywhere, weren't you afraid?
Him - I was born here, I wish to die here only. So there was nothing to be afraid of. It was better to die in my own country then moving to some foreign land in the name of religion.
My grandfather is a devoted Indian, his first wife failed to convince him to leave India, so she divorced him and moved to Pakistan. But he does not regret his decision at all, and he is proud that he had stayed in India.
So the answer to this question is because they loved India very much and didn't consider Pakistan as a place where they belonged.

为什么1947年分治后，大量穆斯林决定留在印度？
我外祖父的第一任妻子离开了他，因为我外祖父想留在印度，而她想搬到巴基斯坦。我问祖父为什么做出这个决定，因为他知道自己再也见不到妻子了。
我：你为什么不在分治的时候离开印度，而许多穆斯林都离开了？
他：一个人怎么能离开自己的国家？他在那里度过了童年，留下了回忆，在那里他有他的房子和他的人民。
我：但是你的妻子走了呀，你知道如果你留在印度，你就再也见不到她了吗？
他：我已经决定，无论发生什么，我都不会离开印度。但她想搬到巴基斯坦，这就是她离开的原因，我甚至没有阻止她。
我：但是到处都是暴乱，你不怕吗？
他：我出生在这里，我只希望死在这里。所以没有什么可害怕的。与其以宗教的名义搬到异国他乡，不如死在自己的国家。
我的祖父是一个忠诚印度的印度人，他的第一任妻子没能说服他离开印度，所以她和他离婚，搬到了巴基斯坦。但他一点也不后悔自己的决定，他为自己留在印度感到骄傲。
所以这个问题的答案是因为他们非常爱印度，不会认为巴基斯坦是他们的归属地。

Vivek Dosla
What would have happened in Pakistan if all Muslims from India had gone to Pakistan after partition?
Muslims would be happy that they got a country of their own and Hindus will be happy for getting a country. Another points are
No communal violence in India, but we might have caste based or region based fights.
Most of the right winged political parties will have very less importance, now we have religion based parties then we would have caste based political parties.
The Kashmir issue would still be in the same position, the whole of Hindu dominated areas of Jammu and Kashmir will try to stay in India and as usual the most peaceful protestors will be doing same kind of protest and as usual play the victim card on both sides of the border.

如果所有来自印度的穆斯林在分治后都去了巴基斯坦，巴基斯坦会发生什么？
穆斯林会为他们拥有一个自己的国家而高兴，印度教徒也会为拥有一个国家而高兴。另外一点是
印度没有社群暴力，但我们可能会发生基于种姓或地区的争斗。
大多数右翼政党的重要性将大大降低，现在我们有了基于宗教的政党，那么我们就会有基于种姓的政党。
克什米尔问题仍将处于同样的地位，查谟和克什米尔的整个印度教占主导地位的地区将试图留在印度，像往常一样，最和平的抗议者将进行同样的抗议，并像往常一样在边境两侧打受害者牌。

Even more sectarian violence in Pakistan.
Comparatively less hostility between 2 countries.
Bangladesh would have a very big population.
India would still be secular, no triple talaq issue
Pakistan and Bangladesh would still be Islamic republic.
India would be still better in sports and economy.

巴基斯坦的宗派暴力更加严重。
两个国家之间的敌意相对较少。
孟加拉国的人口会非常多。
印度仍然是世俗的，没有说三次“talaq”( 意为“离婚”)即离婚的问题。
巴基斯坦和孟加拉国仍然是伊斯兰共和国。
印度在体育和经济方面会更好。

Dr. Balaji Viswanathan
What were the causes that led to the partition of India?
Mahatma Gandhi made two bad decisions in his life — Khilafat Movement and Quit India movement. The Quit India movement of 1942 was poorly timed and heavily criticised by smart politicians like Rajagopalachari. The ill-thought movement gave excuse for colonial administration to jail all Congress supporters, giving Jinnah & team a free reign in influencing the Muslims of Sindh and Punjab in thinking of Pakistan. Until then, the Muslims in these regions were still voting strongly for Congress.
Congress had not built a sufficient base in Bengal after 1920. They didn’t have very many Bengali leaders in the top cadre. That allowed Muslim league and other Muslim parties to dominate the region’s politics. This got Suhrawardy to become the premier of Bengal in 1946. 
Jinnah’s Tuberculosis was either not-well known or was not considered as a parameter when setting India’s independence date. Jinnah died in about a year from partition after suffering long from Tuberculosis. His disease was a well kept secret. If India’s independence date was delayed by Congress going soft on the British, it was possible that Jinnah might have died before the partition and the movement might of fizzled off as there was no real #2 in Pakistan politics.

导致印度分治的原因是什么？
圣雄甘地一生中做了两个糟糕的决定——吉拉法特运动和“退出印度”运动。1942年的“退出印度”运动时机不对，受到了拉贾戈帕拉查里等聪明政客的严厉批评。这场考虑不周的运动为殖民政府监禁所有国大党支持者提供了借口，让真纳及其团队在影响信德省和旁遮普邦穆斯林对巴基斯坦的看法方面享有自由统治权。在此之前，这些地区的穆斯林仍然强烈支持国大党。
1920年后，国大党在孟加拉没有建立足够的基础。他们的高层干部中没有很多孟加拉领导人。这使得穆斯林联盟和其他穆斯林政党得以主导该地区的政治。这使得苏拉瓦底在1946年成为孟加拉总理。
真纳的结核病要么不为人所知，要么在确定印度独立日期时没有被视为一个参数。真纳在长期遭受肺结核的折磨后，真纳在分治一年后病亡。他的病是一个保守得很好的秘密，如果印度的独立日期因国大党对英国的软弱而推迟，那么真纳在分治前可能已经去世，而这场运动可能会因为巴基斯坦政治中没有真正的第二号人物而失败。

Baba Vickram Aditya Bedi
If India wasn't partitioned, would a civil war have broken out?
The study of this subject has substantially changed in the past decade, as documents which were previously classified in the India Office in London, England, have become available for study. The partition of India has been shown to have been a prolonged process initiated by the British Empire to thwart the Indian National Freedom Movement. Beginning in 1905, with the first overt attempt by Lord Curzon and the British Empire to halt the progress of the Indian National Congress from spreading it’s message by partitioning the Subah of Bengal into two parts under the pretext of creating an easier enviornment to govern. But, the Subah of Bengal had been governed as one unit since the time of the Mughal Empire. There had been no sudden change in the environment other than the fact that the Indian Congress had begun talking openly of Independence from the British Empire and questioning the increasing poverty in India. From the perceptive of Lord Curzon who was the Viceroy of India, the situation in India was one which had to be changed so that the Indian Freedom movement could be derailed. Much of the reasoning behind the partition of Bengal was to put emphasis on the fact that Hindu Financiers, Lawyers and other trained professionals were living better than the Eastern part of Bengal which was predominately Muslim. The fact that one of the largest famines in Indian Colonial History had just taken place did not warrant much time or action from Lord Curzon, his main concern was the division of the Indian Freedom Movement.

如果印度没有被分治，内战会爆发吗？
过去十年来，对这一问题的研究发生了重大变化，因为以前在英国伦敦印度办事处分类的文件已经可供研究。事实证明，印度的分治已被证明是大英帝国为挫败印度民族自由运动而发起的一个长期过程。从1905年开始，寇松勋爵和大英帝国首次公开试图阻止印度国大党传播其信息，以创造一个更容易管理的环境为借口，将孟加拉苏巴分成两个部分。但是，自莫卧儿帝国时期以来，孟加拉的苏巴就一直作为一个整体统治着。除了印度国大党开始公开谈论从大英帝国独立，并对印度日益严重的贫困提出质疑之外，环境并没有发生突然的变化。从印度总督寇松勋爵的角度来看，印度的局势必须改变，这样印度的自由运动才能脱轨。孟加拉分治背后的大部分原因是为了强调这样一个事实，即印度金融家、律师和其他受过训练的专业人士比孟加拉东部主要是穆斯林的地区生活得更好。印度殖民历史上最大的饥荒之一刚刚发生，这一事实不需要寇松勋爵花太多时间或采取行动，他主要关心的是印度自由运动带来的分裂。