一战后，盟军肢解了奥匈帝国。保持帝国的完整是否更明智？
After WW1, the Allies dismembered the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Would it have been wiser to keep the Empire intact?
译文简介
许多人忘了，奥匈帝国并不是在1919年和1920年的圣日耳曼和特里亚侬条约之后消失的。
正文翻译
After WW1, the Allies dismembered the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Would it have been wiser to keep the Empire intact?
一战后，盟军肢解了奥匈帝国。保持帝国的完整是否更明智？
一战后，盟军肢解了奥匈帝国。保持帝国的完整是否更明智？
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Something which many forget is that the Austro-Hungarian empire didn’t disappear after the treaties of Saint-German and Trianon in 1919 and 1920. It had already disappeared in the autumn of 1918; the empire effectively collapsed and lost any form of effective authority in October and November of 1918.
As early as early October, unrest was already rising in the Hasburg empire, as the left half of the political sphere called for peace, supported by the minorities of Austria-Hungary; as the Austro-Hungarian military was in retreat on the Italian front. Pretty much every minority-majority area, but especially in Croatia and Bohemia, orders from Vienna started to be disregarded or disobeyed. On the 28th of October, four days after the decisive Italian victory of Vittorio Veneto, the Czech took control over Prague, and started to do the same for other cities of Czechia. On the 30th, the Slovaks decided to do the same. On the 28th, the South Slavs declared the state of State of Slovenes, Croats and Serbs, ruling over Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia, and then proceeded to seize the Austro-Hungarian fleet (with the agreement of emperor Karl the First, who wanted to avoid seeing those fall in the Entente’s hands). In december, the South Slavs state merged with Serbia, creating what would become Yugoslavia. Czechoslovakia was also established on the 29th.
许多人忘了，奥匈帝国并不是在1919年和1920年的圣日耳曼和特里亚侬条约之后消失的。它在1918年秋天就已经结束了；帝国在1918年10月和11月基本上就已经崩溃了，失去了任何形式的有效权力。
早在10月初，哈斯堡帝国的动荡就已经开始了，因为政治领域的左半边要求和平，并得到了奥匈帝国少数民族的支持；当奥匈帝国的军队在意大利前线撤退时。几乎每个少数民族占多数的地区，特别是在克罗地亚和波西米亚，对来自维也纳的命令开始忽视或不服从。10月28日，在意大利取得维托里奥-维内托的决定性胜利四天后，捷克人控制了布拉格，并开始对捷克的其他城市采取同样的行动。30日，斯洛伐克人决定采取同样的行动。28日，南斯拉夫人宣布成立斯洛文尼亚人、克罗地亚人和塞尔维亚人的国家，统治斯洛文尼亚、克罗地亚和波斯尼亚，然后着手夺取奥匈帝国的舰队（得到了卡尔一世皇帝的同意，他希望避免看到这些舰队落入协约国手中）。12月，南斯拉夫人国家与塞尔维亚合并，形成了后来的南斯拉夫。捷克斯洛伐克也在29日成立。
The SMS Viribus Unitis battleship of the State of Slovenes, Croats and Serbs navy, is sunk by a manned torpedo of the Italian navy. Unaware of the ship’s cession to the new South Slavs state, Italy wanted to eliminate the remains of the Austro-Hungarian fleet in order to avoid seeing a rivaling naval power rise in the Adriatic Sea.
On the 11th of November, emperor Karl the First announced he would no longer participate in Austrian politics; the same day, the Republic of German Austria was proclaimed. On the 16th, it was the turn of Hungary to proclaim a Republic and leave the Hasburg Empire, depriving them of their last territory. Hungary then experienced a com...st revolution, and attacked Czechoslovakia and Romania. It quickly failed, and was eventually invaded by the Romanian army, which occupied almost all of Hungary; while in Budapest and what we know as Hungary nowadays, the Romanians weren’t here to stray, they indeed prepared the annexation of Transylvania. The Second Polish Republic also strongly held Galicia; Italy had taken control of Istria and South Tyrol, and even occupied Yugoslav Dalmatia.
Romanian artillery parade through Budapest, the Hungarian capital, 1919
斯洛文尼亚、克罗地亚和塞尔维亚民族国家海军的SMS Viribus Unitis战舰，被意大利海军的一枚鱼雷击沉。由于不知道该舰已经被割让给新的南斯拉夫人国家，意大利想消灭奥匈帝国舰队的残骸，以避免看到一个竞争对手的海军力量在亚得里亚海上崛起。
11月11日，皇帝卡尔一世宣布他将不再参与奥地利的政治；同一天，德意志奥地利共和国宣布成立。16日，轮到匈牙利宣布成立共和国并离开哈斯堡帝国，剥夺了他们最后的领土。匈牙利随后经历了一场共产主义革命，并进攻捷克斯洛伐克和罗马尼亚。它很快就失败了，最终被罗马尼亚军队入侵，几乎占领了整个匈牙利；而在布达佩斯和我们现在所知道的匈牙利，罗马尼亚人并不是来这里玩的，他们确实准备吞并特兰西瓦尼亚。波兰第二共和国也强占了加利西亚；意大利控制了伊斯特拉和南蒂罗尔，甚至还占领了南斯拉夫的达尔马提亚。
The Austro-Hungarian empire was already dead by October of 1918. No one would want to bring it back after all of its territories had been seized by other factions, nor keep supporting it so it don’t implode once again. To be honest, nothing could save the Austro-Hungarian empire by the point the Entente won the war - not even the Entente itself.
如果盟国想在《圣日耳曼条约》和《特里亚侬条约》中恢复奥匈帝国，他们就必须推翻奥地利共和国政权和匈牙利的新霍尔蒂政权，还要反对他们的一战盟友塞尔维亚/南斯拉夫、罗马尼亚、意大利、波兰和捷克斯洛伐克（一些捷克斯洛伐克和波兰的战俘为协约国作战，并为这两个国家建立流亡政府）。这完全没有意义。不仅重新建立的奥匈帝国需要大量的支持才不会倒下，而且整个过程对法国和英国这些被毁的协约国来说，在资金和人员方面付出的代价太大，因为他们已经在俄罗斯与苏联交战，而且在四年的破坏性冲突之后，他们的民众只想获得和平。虽然有些人可能会说，像苏台德地区或南斯洛伐克这样的一些领土应该还给奥地利和匈牙利，但即使这样也是不可能的，因为捷克斯洛伐克民族国家不可能同意放弃这些关键领土。
奥匈帝国在1918年10月就已经死亡。在它的所有领土都被其他派别夺取之后，没有人会想让它复生，也没有人会继续支持它，看着它再次内爆。说实话，在协约国赢得战争时，没有什么能拯救奥匈帝国--甚至协约国本身也不行。
But would the Dual Monarchy still have collapsed if Wilson didn't propose the Fourteen Points in early 1918?
但是，如果威尔逊没有在1918年初提出十四点建议，二元君主制还会崩溃吗？
Yes, it would. Nationalisms within the Austro-Hungarian empire existed for far longer than the Fourteen Points. By 1918, the Czechoslovak and Polish legions were already a thing.
Furthermore, I doubt much of the population of Austria-Hungary even heard about the Fourteen Points prior to the collapse of the Hasburgs. While the fourteen points had an influence on the peace that was concluded, their role in the dissolution of Austria-Hungary was most likely minimal.
是的，会的。奥匈帝国内部的民族主义存在的时间远比十四点原则长。到1918年，捷克斯洛伐克和波兰的军团已经是一个不可忽视的存在了。
此外，我怀疑在哈斯堡王朝垮台之前，奥匈帝国的许多人甚至有没有听说过十四点原则。虽然十四点原则对达成的和平有影响，但它们在奥匈帝国解体中的作用很可能是微乎其微的。
Also, Hungary was never happy being in the Empire. They felt like second class citizens and wanted their independence.
另外，匈牙利在帝国中从来都不开心。他们觉得自己是二等公民，希望自己独立。
There is quite the arguement that the Hungarian’s strive for independence hamstrung the Empire. Another interesting point is that Jan Smuts of all people advocated for the restoration of Austria Hungary.
有相当多的论点认为，匈牙利人争取独立的努力阻碍了帝国的发展。另一个有趣的观点是，扬-斯穆特主张恢复奥地利-匈牙利国家。
Nice answer, I am only confused about the location of “Yugoslav Galicia”, as Galicia is quite far both from Yugoslavia and even further from Italy.
不错的回答，我只是对"南斯拉夫的加利西亚"的位置感到困惑，因为加利西亚离南斯拉夫很远，离意大利更远。
Oh, that was a mistake. I meant Dalmatia…
哦，那是我写错了。我想说的是说达尔马提亚...
Wasn’t Austria-Hungary already collapsing slowly since the Napoleonic Wars?
奥匈帝国不是从拿破仑战争开始就已经慢慢崩溃了吗？
Nice summary and quite complete. Being Romanian, I can't discuss anything with a Hungarian to this day because Hungarians think Trianon the definitive national tragedy which lost them transylvania…and other less important territories. The Magyars were easily the biggest losers of the Hapsburg collapse, imo.
很好的总结，相当完整。作为罗马尼亚人，我至今都不能和匈牙利人讨论任何问题，因为匈牙利人认为特里亚侬会议是决定性的民族悲剧，使他们失去了特兰西瓦尼亚......和其他不太重要的领土。在哈布斯堡王朝的崩溃中，马扎尔人是最大的失败者，我认为。
Well said. The Empire was DOA pretty much before the war started thanks to Franz Joseph’s unwillingness to consider reform. If Franz Ferdinand wasn’t assassinated, the Empire had a potential future as he was much more progressive in his political views. He knew things needed to change and even had some plans already in place for when he became Emperor. Of course, history went the other way.
说得好。由于弗朗茨-约瑟夫不愿意考虑改革，帝国在战争开始前就已经死了。如果弗朗茨-费迪南没有被暗杀，帝国还有潜在的未来，因为他的政治观点要进步得多。他知道事情需要改变，甚至已经为他成为皇帝后制定了一些计划。当然，历史走向了另一个方向。
Romania did not annex Transilvania. Transilvanian romanians proclaimed their desire to unite with Romania - and they were a majority there. Same thing in the northern Banat.
The occupation of Budapesta has little to do with the unx. As soon as a non-com...st hungarian government took the reigns, romanians retreated and the final borders were negotiated.
罗马尼亚并没有吞并特兰西瓦尼亚。特兰西瓦尼亚的罗马尼亚人宣称他们希望与罗马尼亚统一，而且他们在那里占多数。在巴纳特北部也是如此。
对布达佩斯塔的占领与重新统一没有什么关系。非共产党的匈牙利政府一掌权，罗马尼亚人就撤退了，最后的边界也谈成了。
Very interesting analysis, which actually Churchill missed to take note of. Instead he lamented in his memoirs, that it had been a mistake, to destroy the Austria-Hungarian empire, so that this became a prey of Germany during the prologue to WWII.
非常有趣的分析，实际上丘吉尔并没有注意到这一点。相反，他在回忆录中哀叹，摧毁奥匈帝国是一个错误，以至于在二战的序幕中，前奥匈帝国地区成为了德国的猎物。
>the Soviet unx in Russia
it was declared in Dec 1922
>在俄罗斯与苏联作战
后者于1922年12月宣布成立
Sure, it was, by the time the treaties were signed, not formally created; but the Soviets Republics were already a thing. I did it to simplify, as I don’t think it would have been pleasant to include the name of all Soviet Republics, and it would just have confused those who did not hear about the Russian civil war.
当然，在签署条约的时候，它还没有正式成立；但那时的苏维埃共和国已经是一个不可忽视的存在了。我这样做是为了简化，因为我认为把所有苏维埃共和国的名称都包括进去并不令人愉快，而且这只会让那些没有听说过俄罗斯内战的人感到困惑。
And something tells me, the entente wouldnt have decided to fight their former allies, Serbia, Czechoslovakia, Poland in the name of their former enemy, Austria-Hungary. “Soldiers, you remember those you fought and those who helped you. Well uh, now fight the ones who helped you and help those who fought you” Though for Czechs, there was actually a debate as some preferred autonomy status in the empire, though that ended when it was certain it would lose
直觉告诉我，协约国不会决定为了他们以前的敌人奥匈帝国，而与他们以前的盟友塞尔维亚、捷克斯洛伐克、波兰作战。“士兵们，你们记得那些你们战斗过的人和那些帮助过你们的人。”尽管对捷克人来说，实际上确实有过一场辩论，因为有些人更喜欢在帝国中的自治地位，但当帝国在战争中确定会输的时候，辩论就结束了。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Very good summary indeed, although national movements were certainly encouraged by the 14 points and the relevant promises made to them. Also, Czech separatist nationalism, the most decisive of all, was much newer than generally thought, came with a strength only with the growing misery from 1917 on in the Empire.
However, the idea of“While some may argue some territories like the Sudetenland or Southern Slovakia should have been given back to Austria and Hungary, even that would be impossible, at it is unlikely the Czechoslovakian state would agree to give up those crucial territories” is factually wrong. The Allies could implement the Peace Treaties (or Dictates from another perspective) if they wanted. Examples: Southern Hungary, with towns such as Pécs was occupied for 14 month after the Treaty by Serbia, which coveted the territory. Romania also coveted some 8000 sqm, North-West of the present border, promised to her in the Bucharest Agreement of 1916. This area had a Romanian population of some 30 000 (against some 600 000 Hungarians), but finally both countries accepted the new borders and under Allied pressure complied.
非常好的总结，尽管民族运动肯定受到了14点原则和对他们的相关承诺的鼓励。另外，捷克的分离主义民族主义，这一支最具决定性的力量，存在的时间比一般人想象的要新得多，是随着1917年以来帝国的苦难越来越多，才有了发展。
然而，你说"虽然有些人可能会争辩说，像苏台德地区或南斯洛伐克这样的一些领土应该还给奥地利和匈牙利，但即使这样也是不可能的，因为捷克斯洛伐克国家不可能同意放弃这些关键的领土"，这种观点在事实上是错误的。如果盟国愿意的话，他们可以执行和约（或从另一个角度看，是命令）。比如说。匈牙利南部，包括佩奇等城镇，在条约签订后被觊觎该领土的塞尔维亚占领了14个月。罗马尼亚也觊觎目前边界西北部约8000平方米的土地，该地区在1916年的《布加勒斯特协议》中承诺给她。这一地区的罗马尼亚人口约为3万（而匈牙利人口约为60万），但两国最终都接受了新的边界，并在盟国的压力下遵守了协议。
Associate Students Editor at E-International Relations (2019–present)
Maybe, or maybe not.
The issue is that we have an unfair advantage over the Allies. The advantage of hindsight and history. We know how things turned out because we’re from the future. The Allies were in no position to do so.
Looking at it from their perspective, if I was a British, French or American leader in the 1920s, and we had just fought this massive global war against these European giants and decisively defeated them, and with the lack of advanced strategies of rehabilitation that exist today, I might be inclined to want to break my enemy up into smaller (and weaker) enemy fragments.
I don’t think the Allies even considered keeping Austro-Hungary intact, and instead flooding it with their own forces, the western liberal-democratic way of life, distancing them from the Germans and the Russians. An attempt was made towards this with Russia, after the Soviet unx collapsed in 1991. It didn’t work out in that case, it may or may not have worked in this case.
也许是，也许不是。
问题是，我们对当时的盟军有不公平的优势。后见之明和历史的优势。我们知道事情的结果，因为我们来自未来。当时协约国则没有这样的条件。
从他们的角度来看，如果我是20世纪20年代的英国、法国或美国领导人，我们刚刚与这些欧洲巨头进行了这场大规模的全球战争，并决定性地击败了他们，在当时缺乏先进的复兴战略的情况下，我可能会倾向于想把我的敌人分解成更小（更弱）的敌对的碎片。
我认为盟军甚至没有考虑过保持奥匈帝国的完整，进而用他们自己的力量、西方自由民主的生活方式来淹没它，使他们与德国人和俄国人保持距离。在1991年苏联解体后，西方曾对俄罗斯进行过这样的尝试。在那种情况下没有成功，在这种情况下可能成功也可能不会成功。
At the end of the day, there is no telling what course of action might have been pursued. If Hitler hadn’t double-crossed Stalin and kept his friendship, would we be living in a different world today? If the US hadn’t dropped an atomic bomb on Japan, would millions more have been killed in conventional bombings? Would we still have colonies today?
We can never tell.
我们不能肯定，在一个强大而稳定的奥匈帝国中，一个倾向于西方的傀儡政权会扼杀希特勒扩大德国影响力的愿望。也许会，也许不会。如果这个强大的帝国背叛了盟国，加入了轴心国，可能会使第二次战争的情况变得更糟。
到最后，也不知道可能采取什么行动方案。如果希特勒没有出卖斯大林，保持他的友谊，我们今天会生活在一个不同的世界吗？如果美国没有在日本投下原子弹，还会有数百万人在常规轰炸中被炸死吗？我们今天还会有殖民地吗？
我们永远无法判断。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Janitor at Death Star (Star Wars space station) (2016–present)
If WW1 didn't dismember Austria Hungary, then they would've imploded by themselves.
There were dozens of ethnic groups in Austria-Hungary, from the Germans to the Ukrainians, each wanted independence from their Austrian Overlords. Hungary succeeded (sort of) back in 1867 when the Austrian Empire went from a Habsburgs dominated Absolute Monarchy to a Duel Monarchy in the form of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.
After the defeat of the Central Powers during WW1, the former Austro-Hungarian Empire was ridden with war reparations, and it's lands was either dismantled into various states or conceded to neighboring kingdoms.
Had Austria-Hungary not fallen apart, then its debt and resentment of the monarchy would definitely have sprouted many independence movements, and with too little money to do anything about it, Austria-Hungary is guaranteed to have imploded on itself, most likely resulting in more states then what happened today.
如果一战没有肢解奥地利匈牙利，那么他们就会自己内爆。
奥匈帝国有几十个民族，从德国人到乌克兰人，每个人都想从他们的奥地利霸主手中独立出来。早在1867年，当奥地利帝国从哈布斯堡家族主导的绝对君主制变成奥匈二元君主帝国形式的君主制时，匈牙利就成功了（某种程度上）。
一战期间，中央集权国战败后，前奥匈帝国饱受战争赔款的困扰，它的土地要么被拆解成各种国家，要么被割让给邻近的王国。
如果奥匈帝国没有解体，那么它的债务和对君主制的怨恨肯定会引发许多独立运动，而且由于钱太少而无能为力，奥匈帝国肯定会自我内爆，很可能导致今天发生的更多国家。
I agree the war was the not the reason for the downfall of austro Hungary. It was had started before the war. Franz Joseph had ruled for to long. His appetite for reform had ended in 1867. The heir Franz Ferdinand understood this. He understood the Austro-Hungary could not go on in it current form. He understood that the empire was a multi national state. That all nationalities need to have say. He believed that it was very inefficient. Hungary needed to be cut down and not able to Lord over other nationalities. He was the only hope to continue a state that would continue the unity of central europe. He also understood that war would destroy the empire.
我同意战争不是奥匈帝国垮台的原因。它是在战前就开始的。弗朗茨-约瑟夫已经统治了很久。他对改革的渴望在1867年就已经结束了。继承人弗朗茨-费迪南明白这一点。他明白奥匈帝国不可能以目前的形式继续下去。他明白，帝国是一个多民族国家。所有民族都需要有发言权。他认为，这是很低效的。匈牙利需要被遏制，不能支配其他民族。他是延续中欧统一国家的唯一希望。他也明白，战争会毁掉这个帝国。
Genetic heritage unveil people's soul
Wiser to keep it intact? Heck no!
Austro-Hungarian empire was an unnatural conglomerate, called “Jail of the Peoples” by most minorities. Not one nation had a true majority (>50%) from the total population and everybody was discontent, including part of the Hungarian politicians. The only beneficiary was the house of Habsburg and some Hungarian speaking land lords (groffs) who exploited the locals.
As Balkan populations under Ottoman rule got more of a national feeling and conscience, they would want to form their own state and unite with areas with similar speaking people. Romania was already a well established kingdom and worked hard to unite with their long time awaited Transylvania (same as with Bassarabia stolen by Russia). The empire collapsed by itself in 1918, before the treaties were signed.
It was an empire hated from the inside and it was not meant to last in modern times. Maybe if a more federalist approach was taken early on and all nationalities were given fair representation and local autonomy, would’ve lasted. But only Magyars got the right to rule themselves and others and so the others were all against it. It was proven by the countries formed at the end of 1918 and after, countries that exist even today (some split, but still independent).
保持它的完整更明智？绝壁不是!
奥匈帝国是一个不自然的联合体，被大多数少数民族称为"人民的监狱"。没有一个民族在总人口中拥有真正的多数（>50%），每个人都感到不满，包括匈牙利的部分政治家。唯一的受益者是哈布斯堡家族和一些说匈牙利语的地主，他们剥削着当地人。
随着奥斯曼帝国统治下的巴尔干人民有了更多的民族感情和意识，他们希望形成自己的国家，并与有类似语言的地区联合起来。罗马尼亚已经是一个成熟的王国，并努力与他们期待已久的特兰西瓦尼亚联合起来（与被俄国偷走的比萨拉比亚一样）。1918年，在条约签署之前，该帝国就已经自行崩溃了。
这是一个从内部怨恨丛生的帝国，它不打算在现代持续下去。如果在早期就采取更多的联邦主义做法，让所有民族都有公平的代表权和地方自治权，也许会持续下去。但是，只有马扎尔人得到了统治自己和其他人的权利，所以其他人都反对这一现状。1918年底和之后形成的国家证明了这一点，这些国家甚至存在于今天（有些已经分裂，但仍然独立）。
Well, it's actually more complicated than that.
Not only would it have been unwise, it would have been impossible. The dual monarchy was already an inherently unstable construct that was creaking at the seams before the war, and the outcome of the war was to leave the subject nations effectively ungovernable. By November 1918 only one remaining European great power was a monarchy, and its royal house had effectively nothing in common with the Hapsburgs anyway; the tenor of international politics was towards democracy, self-determination and popular rule, and the last thing that anyone in Britain, France, Italy or the USA wanted was to leave a vacuum of authority in which an undesirable outbreak of Com...ism might happen; better to establish (or reinforce, where they already existed) smaller nation states as republics or constitutional monarchies in a western image. Denying the Serbs any fruits of victory when the allies had ostensibly at least gone to war in their defence would have been politically indefensible.
嗯，实际上比这更复杂。
这不仅是不明智的，而且是不可能的。二元君主制在战前就已经是一个本质上不稳定的结构，在缝隙中摇摇欲坠，而战争的结果是使主体国家实际上无法行使治理权。到1918年11月，只剩下一个欧洲大国是君主制，而且它的王室实际上与哈布斯堡王朝毫无联系。国际政治的主旋律是民主、自决和民众统治，英国、法国、意大利或美国的任何人最不希望的就是留下一个权力真空，在那里可能会爆发不受欢迎的共产主义；最好是建立（或加强，如果它们已经存在）小型民族国家，或者符合西方想象的共和国或君主立宪国家。在盟国至少表面上说是为保护他们而参战的情况下，剥夺塞尔维亚人的任何胜利成果在政治上是站不住脚的。
The Allies did not dismember the Austro-Hungarian Empire. The Allies did not order Hungary to declare independence, but Hungarians declared it during the Aster Revolution. The Allies also did not sign the Martin Declaration, etc.
Generally speaking, the powers prefer less dramatic changes, as similar revolutions create too many new partners whose behavior is often unpredictable. This is why, for example, the Czech National Movement had problems getting support in 1914-1917. The Allies significatly changed their minds only in the last phase of the war.
In any case, it was not the Allies who dismembered Austria-Hungary, but the national councils of individual nations. The Empire then collapsed by the domino effect. Therefore, there is no point in speculating if “Would it have been wiser to keep the Empire intact”, because the Empire collapsed by the end of October 1918.
盟国并没有肢解奥匈帝国。盟国没有命令匈牙利宣布独立，是匈牙利人在阿斯特革命期间宣布独立。盟国也没有签署《马丁宣言》，等等。
一般来说，列强更喜欢不那么剧烈的变化，因为类似的革命创造了太多的新伙伴，其行为往往是不可预测的。这就是为什么，例如，捷克民族运动在1914-1917年期间在获得支持上遇到了很多阻碍。盟国只是在战争的最后阶段才明显地改变了主意。
无论如何，肢解奥匈帝国的不是盟国，而是各个民族的国民议会。然后，帝国在多米诺骨牌效应下崩溃了。因此，猜测"保持帝国完整是否更明智"是没有意义的，因为帝国在1918年10月底就已经崩溃了。
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