Why is the UK economy suffering more than other countries?

为什么英国经济比其他国家遭受的损失更大？



新闻：

Up until now it has been difficult to pick out much difference between the UK's economic numbers and those across Europe and the world.

到目前为止，还很难看出英国的经济数据与欧洲乃至全世界的数据有多大不同。

The size of the common global economic shocks from the pandemic and from Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been the overwhelming driver of high inflation and slower growth for most European countries.

疫情和俄罗斯入侵乌克兰对全球经济造成的共同冲击之大，是导致大多数欧洲国家高通胀和增长放缓的主要原因。

But in recent days, the Bank of England governor, Andrew Bailey, has warned inflation is set to be higher for longer here in the UK, and growth in the economy weaker too.

但最近几天，英格兰银行行长安德鲁·贝利警告称，英国的通货膨胀率将在更长时间内保持较高水平，经济增长也将更加疲弱。

These gloomy forecasts echoed those made by the International Monetary Fund and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, which has 38 member countries.

这些悲观的预测与国际货币基金组织和拥有38个成员国的经济合作与发展组织的预测相呼应。

On Wednesday, Mr Bailey told a European Central Bank forum that "the UK economy is probably weakening rather earlier and somewhat more than others".

周三，贝利在欧洲央行的一个论坛上表示，“英国经济走弱的时间可能比其他国家更早，而且程度更严重。”

He said: "I think that's been somewhat evident now for a few months."

他说：“我认为这几个月来这一点已经很明显了。”

And on inflation he said that as things stand, he would expect more persistence in the headline rate because of the UK's energy price cap system. This suppressed inflation earlier in the year but raised it later on.

在通胀问题上，他表示，鉴于英国的能源价格上限制度，他预计整体通胀率将更加持久。这在今年早些时候抑制了通胀，但随后又提高了通胀。

Retailers too have said they have started to expect different outcomes for the UK versus the rest of the Europe. The boss of the owner of Boots, Stefano Pessina, said he suspected the UK "will have a big recession, probably bigger than other European countries".

零售商们也表示，他们已经开始预期英国与欧洲其他国家的结果会有所不同。Boots的老板斯特凡诺·佩西纳表示，他怀疑英国“将经历一次大衰退，可能比其他欧洲国家更严重”。

Last month Pepco, which owns Poundland, said in its results that in the UK customers were scaling back even on essential purchases. Whereas elsewhere in Europe, where wage rises were making up for price rises, this was not the case. Some measures of household consumer confidence are hitting record lows in the UK.

上个月，Poundland的母公司Pepco在其业绩报告中表示，英国消费者甚至在缩减必需品的购买。而在欧洲其他地方，工资上涨抵消了物价上涨，所以情况并非如此。英国的一些家庭消费者信心指标正创下历史新低。

What is driving this? On inflation Mr Bailey pointed to the structure of the price cap affecting the timing of the peaks. But that would affect more the timing of the peak rather than its height.

这背后的原因是什么？在通胀问题上，贝利指出，价格上限的结构会影响通胀达到峰值的时间。但这将更大程度上影响峰值的时间，而不是峰值的高度。

Sterling has fallen markedly against the dollar over the past year, adding to inflationary pressure for imported fuel and energy. Although the figures are volatile, the key measure of UK trade performance, the current account, reached its worst levels in record in the first quarter.

过去一年，英镑兑美元汇率大幅下跌，加大了进口燃料和能源的通胀压力。尽管这些数据波动较大，但衡量英国贸易表现的关键指标——经常账——今年第一季度达到了有记录以来的最糟糕水平。

As the Bank pointed out in its minutes for its June meeting when it raised interest rates, measures of core goods inflation (stripping out volatile measures such as energy and food) in the UK are higher than the US, and markedly higher than the eurozone.

正如英国央行在6月加息会议纪要中指出的那样，英国的核心商品通胀指标（剔除能源和食品等波动性指标）高于美国，而且明显高于欧元区。

Brexit factor at play

脱欧因素起作用

The obvious question posed to Mr Bailey was about a Brexit factor here. Economists predicted that Brexit would make the trade off between inflation and growth more difficult, both because of trade barriers and labour shortages.

贝利面临的一个明显问题是关于英国脱欧的一个因素。经济学家预测，由于贸易壁垒和劳动力短缺，英国脱欧将使通胀和增长之间的权衡变得更加困难。

If forecasts of UK underperformance turn out to be true, then this would be consistent with a Brexit factor at play, making inflation more stubborn than elsewhere, and perhaps requiring interest rates to be hiked higher.

如果有关英国经济表现不佳的预测是真的，那么这将与英国脱欧的一个因素相符，这将使通胀比其他地方更加顽固，或许还需要将利率调高。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


A smaller pool of workers should mean the UK labour market is now less flexible. The British Chambers of Commerce yesterday implored the government to review urgently its shortage occupation list, as hotels and restaurants turned away clients amid staff shortages.

劳动力数量减少应该意味着英国劳动力市场的灵活性下降。英国商会昨天恳请政府紧急审查其短缺职业名单——目前酒店和餐厅因员工短缺而拒绝接待客户。

Post-pandemic challenges

后疫情时期的挑战
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Another mechanism identified by policymakers is that within the UK firms see less competition from Europe, and are increasing margins and therefore prices. On the actual numbers so far, as the governor said, it is difficult to be definitive. The post-pandemic supply chain challenges are difficult to disentangle from post Brexit ones, he said.

政策制定者确定的另一个机制是，英国企业内部认为来自欧洲的竞争减少了，因此利润率和价格都在上升。正如这位行长所说，到目前为止，很难给出确切的数字。他说，大流行后的供应链挑战很难与英国脱欧后的挑战分开。

Also it is far from certain that these forecasts will come to pass. The German economy is very sensitive to any shortage of energy amid tensions with Russia. The Eurozone itself is under internal pressure again, with risks of a re-emergence of the dormant crisis of a decade ago.

此外，这些预测能否实现还远未确定。在与俄罗斯的紧张关系中，德国经济对任何能源短缺都非常敏感。欧元区自身也再次面临内部压力，十年前蛰伏的危机有卷土重来的风险。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


So far, a common energy shock, explains most of the inflation we have seen. The structure of the energy price cap may explain why we have spiked now, later than the rest of Europe. But if over the coming year these inflation numbers stay higher for longer here in the UK than the rest of advanced European and world economies, the shadow of post-Brexit policy changes only really affecting this country will loom large.

到目前为止，一种常见的能源冲击可以解释我们所看到的大多数通货膨胀。能源价格上限的结构或许可以解释为什么我们现在的价格飙升比欧洲其他国家更晚。但如果未来一年，英国的通胀数据比其他欧洲和世界发达经济体保持更高水平的时间更长，那么只会真正影响到这一个国家的脱欧后政策变化的阴影将加深扩大。