网友讨论：不断衰退的日本经济
Japan: The Fading Economy
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网友：日本和韩国未来面临的主要问题是缺乏熟练的劳动力。但有一个解决办法，那就是像美国那样促进教育移民
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网友讨论：不断衰退的日本经济
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I live in South Korea, and as much as we don't like to admit it, I think our economy is slowly following the steps of Japan. It's like nobody wants to spend anything and we all just try to buy up as much land in the capital or large cities as we can. I really hope we don't have our own lost decade.
我住在韩国，虽然不愿意承认，但我想我们的经济正慢慢步日本的后尘。似乎没有人愿意去消费，我们都是尽可能多的在首都或大城市买地。我真的不希望会像日本那样有失落的十年。
Well, currently korean birth's rate are the lowest right? And so many young generation can't afford to buy property in the metropolitan area
现在韩国出生率最低，对吧？很多年轻人买不起大城市的房子
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Major problems will be faced by japan ,south korea like countries in future will be scarcity of skilled workforce . But there too have one solution is promoting educated immigrants. Like what US did .
日本和韩国未来面临的主要问题是缺乏熟练的劳动力。但有一个解决办法，那就是像美国那样促进教育移民
@Avishkar Chothwe this will likely create more social problem as Japan and Korea are culturally closed and conservative.
这可能会造成更多的社会问题，因为日本和韩国在文化上是很封闭保守的
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@vault34overseer society need to change their minds for better economy as it is more important than other things. People never will accept this thing initially but slowly they get used to it. As in us also there was so much problem of racism but today it is not much intense as it used to be .
为了更好的经济发展，社会心态需要发生改变，因为这比其他事情都要重要。人们一开始不会接受这种事情，但慢慢的他们也就习惯了，在美国过去有很严重的种族主义问题，但现在已经比过去好很多了。
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My understanding is that South Korea like Japan has a two-tier workforce. At the first tier are workers employed by big multinationals such as Samsung (or Toyota, Mitsubishi, Sony, etc in Japan) or the central government. At the 2nd tier are temporary workers doing contract work, employees of SMEs or the self-employed running small businesses. The 2nd tier workers are barely treading water and young people that fall into the 2nd tier feel hopeless about their future prospects.
我认为韩国和日本一样，他们的劳动力是分层的。处于第一层的劳动力受雇于像三星（或日本的丰田，三菱，索尼等）这样的大型跨国企业或中央政府，处于第二层的是从事合同工作的临时工，中小企业的雇员或者是从事小买卖的个体户。处于第二层的劳动力几乎不会有什么发展前景，他们对于未来的前景感到绝望。
Hate to say this but S. Korea totally following Japan’s step. Long and longer work hours, agglomeration in the capital, declining birth rate, aging population, .. so many familiarities. Lived there for three years. I hope S. Korea quickly take a turn on its economy before it is too late.
虽然不想这样讲，但韩国完全就是在步日本的后尘，工作时间越来越长，首都聚集了大量的人口，出生率下滑，人口老龄化，这一切都是如此熟悉，在韩国生活了三年，在为时已晚之前，我希望韩国可以改变自己的经济状况
Same here in my country buy as much land in capital cities
我们国家也是这样，人们在首都买了很多的地
@vault34overseer sure japan used to be really xenophobic, but that has vastly changed in the last years, the people there are not as conservative as they used to be and they welcome foreigners nicely, especially in the big cities, but i guess in rural areas its still a little worse
日本过去的确很排外，但过去几年情况已经发生了很大的变化，人们不像过去那样保守了，他们欢迎外国人，尤其是在大城市，但我想农村地区依然有点糟糕。
I am South Korean and this is very true
Lowest birth rate, exorbitant house prices, endless competition, long work hours, high suicide rate
我是韩国人，你说的的确很对
出生率最低，房价过高，无休止的竞争，长时间的工作，高自杀率
Yesterday i watched some vids about what would happen if Korea unifies, they say Korea will have a better economy then Japan.
我昨天看了一些视频，讲的是朝韩统一后的国家前景，他们认为统一之后，韩国的经济会比日本好
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Indians also have the same mindset , as soon as we start earning we spend it on buying land or to buy multiple houses .
印度人也有这样的心态，一旦我们开始赚到了钱，我们就会用它来买地买房
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Friend, this is going to be the way many countries go in the next few years. Japan and South Korea just got there ahead of the others. The underlying conditions (overpriced real estate, ageing populations, low birth rates, high debt to GDP ratios) are present pretty much across the world.
朋友，未来几年许多国家也会这样的，日本和韩国只不过比它们先走一步而已，房价过高，人口老龄化，低出生率，债务占GDP比例过高等潜在问题在世界各地都是普遍存在的。
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@Small Bull India still has high birth rate and will replace China as Most populous country in the world.
印度的出生率依然很高，将取代中国成为世界上人口最多的国家
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@Nihil they like foreigners if they are white and from US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Europe.
日本喜欢的外国人是那些来自美国，加拿大，澳大利亚，新西兰和欧洲地区的白人
@Nihil yes Western countries is more accepting of immigrants than East Asia did except China because China doesn't have a fear that immigrants population will outmatched them or replace with 2nd or 3rd generation of immigrants while countries like US were always having new minority like by 2050 US will be majority Latinos or Hispanic.
是的，西方国家比除中国以外的东亚国家更能接受移民，因为中国并不担心，因为中国并不担心移民的数量会超过他们，也不担心第二代或第三代移民会取代自己，而像美国这样的国家一直不断有少数族裔涌入，大约到2050年的时候，美国拉丁裔或西班牙裔的人口将占据多数
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I hope some miracle would change Japan economic conditions
我希望日本经济会有奇迹发生
Japan's economy is rising just alot slower than usual if it weren't for covid 19 Japan would have had the best years in 2020. The debt was dropping by 3 percent every year since 2017. I think Japan would have been at 6.5 trillion USD in gdp.
日本的经济正在上升，只不过速度较慢而已，如果不是新冠疫情的话，2020年将会成为日本经济最好的一年，自2017年以来，日本债务每年减少3%，我认为日本将来GDP可以达到6.5万亿美元
Japan's government : Spend your money
People : no
日本政府：去花钱
人们：不
Japan's Government: Have Babies ,our nation is literally dieing from getting old.
Japanese people: No
日本政府:快生孩子吧，我们的国家正因老龄化而濒临灭亡
日本人:不
However, they still spend more than people in any other country
但是他们的消费能力依然比其他国家的人高
Why do people always think immigration is some magical solution to everything? Europe's suffered already and many countries' infrastructures were stretched to the limits under pressure with immigration. Health services were/are near breaking point in some countries. There is never going to be a peaceful transition of immigration into a country especially as homogenous as Japan. It takes generations for the adjustment period and you're basically sentencing the current ones to suffer the worst of it.
为什么人们总是认为移民可以解决所有的问题？欧洲国家已经受到了移民的影响，在移民压力下，许多国家的基础设施能力已经到达了极限，在某些国家医疗服务已经接近崩溃，外来移民要像融入一个国家，尤其是像日本这样一个同质性的国家，其过程绝对不会是和平的。这需要几代人的时间来适应，你基本上就是让现在的人承受最严重的后果。
@The Generic Japan is better pumping up their own numbers or adopting machines in the work place rather than foreign workers, less social problems that would eventually negatively leak into politics and economics.
日本最好增加自己本国人口，或者在工作场所增加机器人，而不是依赖外国工人，这样可以减少对政治和经济产生负面影响的社会问题
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You guys are too overreacting. Actually, when it comes to "per capita" growth rate, Japan was the third best country after US and UK among the G7 during the 2010s. Japan's performance hasn't been that poor lately. Countries like France or Italy have been much worse than Japan.
你们有点小题大做了，在人均增长率方面，过去十年日本是七国集团里面仅次于美国和英国的国家，日本最近的表现并没有那么差，法国或者意大利的情况比日本更糟
The reason why Japan entered it's stagnation is two words: Trade War
US went to trade War with Japan in the 80s and won, ending Japan's low fixed rate currency (which had made their exports attractive) and opened up their markets (like semiconductors industries which became less competitive with more US imports into)
Surprised the author didn't mention this. Agreement was finalized in 1988 and Japan lost a booming decade afterwards, becoming stagnated with their aging pop.
日本经济停滞的原因就三个字：贸易战
美国在上世纪80年代和日本打贸易战，并取得了胜利，终结了日本的低汇率（低汇率让日本的出口产品更受欢迎），打开了日本的市场（比如半导体行业，随着美国进口的增加，其竞争力开始下降）
奇怪的是作者没有提到这一点，协议签署于1988年，之后日本失去了蓬勃发展的十年，随着老龄化的到来，日本社会陷入了停滞状态。
Authors videos have a clear USA/Western bias, this trade war was the main reason but for some reason wasn't mentioned
作者的视频明显偏向于美国/西方，贸易战是日本停滞的主要原因，但出于某些原因没有被提到
There were other factors. A key one is Tokyo's shortsighted agreement to limit car sales to the United States. South Korea did a great job of filling that gap.
还有其他因素，其中一个关键因素是东京方面签署了一个短视的协议，限制了对美国的汽车销售，而韩国则填补了这个方面的空白
Yeah they want to be no.1 and now today they making a trade war against china but China is now the highest economy
是的，因为美国想成为第一名，现在他们又对中国发动了贸易战，但中国现在已经是世界上最大的经济体了
The same strategy is being implemented in US vs China trade war. The thing is, US has different enemy this time.
在中美贸易战中，美国也对中国使用了同样的战略，但问题是，美国现在的敌人是中国，不是日本
Can't blame Japans zombie economy on some accord in the 80's. High taxes, severe regulations and a resistance to change has left Japan in the dust.
不能将日本的僵尸经济归咎于80年代的某项协议，高税收，严厉的监管和对变革的抵制使得日本陷入了困境
Now the US is doing the same in China
现在美国又对中国使用了同样的招数
China and S korea took a lot of their markets.
中国和韩国夺走了日本的大量市场份额
Ohh I did not know this. No wonder they are having a TRADE WAR with China this time around.
我不知道美国之前和日本打过贸易战，难怪他们这次又要和中国打贸易战了
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@Enzo Gonzales the us would prefer to bankrupt the whole world and remain the dominant power rather than let countries grow
为了维护自己的主导地位，美国宁愿让世界破产也不愿意让其他国家获得发展
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Even though the total GDP of Japan has stagnated for 25 years, the overall GDP per capita has risen because Japan’s population is declining. Productivity per person did not stop increasing during this time.
即便日本的GDP总量25年来一直停滞不前，但人均GDP一直都在上升，因为日本的人口在减少，在此期间人均生产率一直在提高
It will stop increasing when the population gets too old.
当人口老龄化过于严重的时候，人均生产率就不会再提高了
Yes we know Japan has a serious suicide issue due to overworked workforce.
是的，我们知道由于工作时间过长，日本有严重的自杀问题
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Looking at Japan’s economic stagnation from an economist lens— I think one of the key catalysts for the stagnation was the Plaza Accord wherein a bloc of western economies led by the US forced the intervention of the Japanese Yen, leading to sharp appreciation against the US Dollar. For an export economy like Japan, especially at a critical point like that in 1985, this basically accelerated decline and made Japanese manufacturing and exports less attractive price-wise and led to the start of the bubble collapse.
从经济学家的镜头来观察日本的经济停滞，我认为导致经济停滞的一个关键因素在于《广场协议》，由美国领导的西方经济集团对日元进行干预，导致日元对美元的汇率急剧上升。对于一个像日本这样的出口国来说，尤其是日本当时还处于1985年这样的关键节点，这基本上让日本的衰退加速到来，使日本制造业和出口在价格方面失去了吸引力，导致泡沫开始破裂
Anime became popular in the 90s. Japan's economy stagnated in the 90s. Coincidence I think not.
动漫在上世纪90年代开始流行，而日本的经济也是在这个时候陷入停滞的，我认为这不是巧合。
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Anime became an export in the late 80's-early 90's. Anime was popular before that too.
在上世纪80年代末和90年代初，日本动漫开始出口，在此之前日本动漫也很受欢迎。
It's an interesting idea. I think Anime/Videogames certainly occupy lonely Men's time so it does hurt the birth rate. However the 90's economic crash in Japan happened for other reasons, and was responsible for creating the lost generation.
这个观点很有趣，我认为动漫和电子游戏确实占据了单身男人的时间，所以这的确对出生率造成了影响。但是日本90年代的经济崩溃是由于其他原因造成的，由此产生了迷惘的一代。
Japan animation industry rose long before 90s
日本动漫产业早在90年代之前就已经崛起了
Pretty much the same happened here in Italy (though our economy is far less efficient than Japan's). Declining population, no capability to reduce the debt are the factors leading to stagnation. Same is happening throughout EU. I suppose every developed country will experience the same
同样的情况也发生在意大利(尽管我们的经济效率远低于日本)。人口减少，无力减少债务是导致经济停滞的原因。同样的情况也发生在欧盟各国，我想每个发达国家都会经历这种事情
Probably not all developed countries will experience the same situation as Italy or Japan. Anglo nations like Canada, UK, the US, and Australia attract hundreds of thousands of migrants(the US attracts over a million) every year and are very productive. Those nations will probably continue to grow, albeit with short recessions sometimes. The same can be said for Ireland, Norway, or Switzerland. Debt might be a problem, but they can mitigate that with a growing population and sound fiscal policies.
或许不是所有发达国家都会经历日本或意大利这样的情况。像加拿大，英国，美国，和澳大利亚这样的盎撒国家每年可以吸引成千上万的移民（美国每年吸引了一百多万的移民），而且这些国家的生产力很高。虽然有时会陷入短暂的衰退，但这些国家或许会继续增长。爱尔兰，挪威或瑞士同样也是如此。债务或许是一个问题，但只要保持人口增长和财政政策的稳健，债务问题就可以得到缓解。
Surprised that you didn't mention about the Plaza Accord of 1985, and the whole process of trade war with the US. The economy of Japan was killed.
让人奇怪的是你没有提到1985年签署的《广场协议》和美日贸易战的全过程。日本经济被扼杀了
Yeah Japan’s economy was “killed” in 1985.
是的，日本经济在1985年被扼杀了
I kinda always figured that one of the main reasons was the Plaza Accords, cause after that, Japan’s economy took a nosedive. They were set to overtake the US but then the accord stopped it. Of course there are other factors as well but I guess one of the main reasons was the US of A didn’t want anyone to outmanoeuvre them economically.
我一直认为主要原因之一是《广场协议》，因为在那之后，日本的经济开始急转直下。本来他们是要超过美国的，但这个趋势被《广场协议》打断了。当然还有其他的因素，但我想其中一个主要原因是美国不希望任何国家在经济上超过他们
I don't know anything about economy but this taught me a lot in a little over 10 minutes. Great video!
我对经济一窍不通，但这个视频在短短十几分钟的时间里让我学到了很多东西。非常棒的视频
There four types of economies in the world: developed countries, developing countries, Japan and Argentina.
世界上一共有四种经济体：发达国家，发展中国家，日本和阿根廷。
You forget that GDP per capita is in Japan larger today than in 1990. This as the population is shrinking.
你忘了日本的人均GDP比1990年还要高，这是因为日本的人口在减少
Björn Lundahl does this account for inflation though
但是你把通货膨胀算进去了吗
well the GDP per capita is calculated by dividing the total GDP by the number of people. So if the population is schrinking, that would make the gdp per capita rise.
人均GDP是由总GDP除以人口数量计算出来的。如果人口减少，人均gdp就会上升。
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GDP Per Capita in Japan was the highest in 2012 which was 48,603.48 USD. In 2019, it is 41,021 USD.
2012年日本人均GDP达到最高，为48603美元，在2019年为41021美元
Japan’s gdp per capita was more than twice the USA’s gdp per capita in the 90s, now it’s much lower
在90年代，日本的人均GDP是美国的两倍，但现在日本的人均要远远低于美国
Jer W Japans GDP per capita has never been near USAs GDP per capita.
日本的人均GDP从来没有接近过美国
Björn Lundahl Japan’s gdp per capita in 1995: 43,000 USD, for America in 1995 it was 28,000 USD
1995年日本人均GDP为43000美元，而同年美国人均GDP是28000美元
By inflation standard 4.9 trillion in 1990 is more than 5.5 trillion in 2019
按照通货膨胀的标准来看，1990年的4.9万亿美元的价值要超过2019年的5.5万亿美元
Most of the GDP will be wasted on paying the national debt anyway.
无论如何大部分GDP都浪费在了清偿国债上了
Japan also benefitted in the post-war years from not having to invest much in its own defense because it was under the U.S.'s protective wing. And the Korean War proved to be an economic stimulus program for Japan as allies used the country as a supply depot.
二战结束后，日本处于美国的保护之下，所以不需要大力投资建设国防力量，这让日本获得了巨大的好处。在朝鲜战争时期，盟国将日本当作了后勤补给中心，这对日本的经济发展起到了刺激作用。
Imagine the US only having 22 trillion in debt,lol
想象一下美国只有22万亿美元的债务，哈哈
Here in the US we are scared of more automation but it sounds like Japan really needs more sophisticated automation.
在美国我们害怕更多的自动化，但似乎日本真的非常需要更加先进的自动化
If Japan were to increase its immigration rate so that its population started growing again, would these economic troubles abate?
如果日本增加移民比例让人口数量再次增加，这些经济问题会得到缓解吗？
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