距离核弹爆炸有多远才能活下来?
How far do you have to be from a nuclear bomb to survive?
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如何在核战中求生？
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How far do you have to be from a nuclear bomb to survive?
离核弹爆炸有多远才能活下来?
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Far too many variables to give you a fixed answer.
How big a nuclear explosion are we talking about?
A 22 kiloton “Nagasaki” sized atomic blast is not the same thing as a W-88 Thermonuclear warhead.
Also… safe from what exactly? the physical blast wave, the ionizing radiation pulse, the thermal pulse, fallout? Different effects are bigger than others given the size of the bomb Yield. The different effects do not scale the same so by way of example, is smaller detonations the thermal pulse is not as far reaching as the blast wave itself, but as you go bigger ad bigger, the blast wave tails off more rapidly with distance and does not scale up the same way as the thermal pulse. With the bigger nukes, you can be well outside the blast radius and still receive lethal thermal exposure and die of massive 3rd degree burns to your body if exposed to line of sight to the fireball.
For the blast itself it depends on what sort of shelter you are in. The blast gets progressively weaker the further you are and what may not be good shelter close in, would be adequate further out. far enough out and you can survive the blast wave in the open (provided you are not struck by debris thrown outwards from further in).
Don’t be downwind or in the immediate vicinity.
变量太多以至于无法给你一个固定的答案。
我们说的核爆炸有多大?
22千吨当量的“长崎”原子弹爆炸和W-88热核弹头不一样。
还有…安全是指什么?是物理冲击波，电离辐射，热辐射，还是放射性尘埃?考虑到炸弹当量的大小，当量大各方面影响都更大。不同当量的效果并不相同，举个例子，如果是较小的爆炸，热脉冲就不会那么远，随着距离的增加，冲击波会迅速消失。使用更大的核弹，即使你远在爆炸半径之外，仍然会受到致命的热辐射，如果暴露在火球的视线内，你的身体会被灼成三级烧伤。
至于爆炸本身，这取决于你在什么样的掩体中。你离得越远，爆炸的威力就越弱，距离近的地方可不是好的掩体，离得越远越好。如果离得足够远，你就可以在露天的冲击波中幸存下来(前提是你没有被从深处飞出来的碎片击中)。
不要在顺风处或近井地带。
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Being outside however, you would still be in danger from the thermal pulse (heat wave) radiating from the fireball, but so long as you were out of direct line of sight of the fireball itself, you would be fine.
I would say that as long as you had some sort of physical barrier between you and direct line-of-sight to the fireball, you would be safe from just about every typical nuclear weapon out there as long as you were at least 20–25 miles from ground zero (and not downwind from fallout)
The above is a 1 megaton example. Most nukes are not that big.
The two most common nukes in the US inventory are 475 and 500 kilotons
500 kiloton is 1/2 a megaton.
对于1兆吨级的地面爆炸，在10-12英里之外，只要你有合适的避难所，你应该是安全的(类似于躲避龙卷风)。在20英里之外，爆炸几乎不会击破窗户，不要站在窗户附近，否则你可能会被飞来的玻璃伤到。
然而，身处室外，你仍然会受到火球辐射出的热脉冲(热浪)的威胁，但只要你不在火球的可见范围内，你就没事了。我想说的是，只要你和火球之间有某种物理障碍，你在距离核爆中心至少20-25英里的地方(而不是放射性尘埃的下风处)，你就不会受到任何一种典型核武器的伤害。
上面是一个1兆吨当量的例子。大多数核武器都没有那么大。
美国库存中最常见的两种核武器分别是475千吨和500千吨，500千吨等于1/2兆吨。
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It isn’t easy. Some believe that if all the nuclear warheads were launched the earth might be uninhabitable anyway. This would be true if the new version of the Russian nuclear bombs are implemented, which scatter radioactive materials which would circulate everywhere. But there is a reasonable possibility that a nuclear winter would not happen and if you survived the initial war and you lived in a nation that was not destroyed you might survive.
这并不容易。一些人认为，如果所有的核弹头都被发射出去，地球可能无论如何都不适合居住了。如果俄罗斯的新版核弹被使用，这将会成真，因为它会将放射性物质播散得到处都是。
但有一种合理的可能性，即核冬天不会发生，如果你从最初的战争中幸存下来，而你生活在一个没有被摧毁的国家，你就可能会生存下来。
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As is true with most modern weapons systems, the answer is, it depends on a number of complex factors.
Just off the top of my head:
The kind of nuclear blast makes a huge difference. A dirty bomb will just scatter around radioactive dust in the immediate area. A modern hydrogen bomb can easily destroy an entire city with the initial blast alone; that’s to say nothing of the long term radiation danger. Problem at your local nuclear power plant? The immediate danger zone is almost certainly less than 10-20 miles from the plant.
就像大多数现代武器系统一样，答案是，这事取决于许多复杂的因素。
我能想到的是:
核爆炸的类型不同，其结果就大不相同。脏弹只会在附近地区散布放射性尘埃。而一枚现代氢弹仅在爆炸之初就能轻易摧毁整个城市;更不用说长期的辐射危险了。你当地的核电站有问题吗?几乎可以肯定，距离核电站不到10到20英里就是直接的危险区。
When in comes to the dangers of radioactive fallout time, location, and weather matter.
In general, it takes time for radiation to fall back to earth after a nuclear warhead is detonated; usually something between 12–24 hours.
In that case, assuming you survive the initial blast it’s key to head upwind of the larger area weather patterns and generally in the opposite direction of the jet stream (that usually means head West in the Northern Hemisphere, and head East in the Southern Hemisphere) before radioactive fallout starts coming down.
A major nuclear explosion from a military device will almost certainly result in retaliation, and then (potentially) further attacks and counter attacks by additional parties. At some point, this is expected to trigger a nuclear winter; killing plants, animals, and causing global temperatures to plummet to a new ice age. Between the multiple blasts and the immeasurable devastation of a nuclear winter event most people’s chances of survival are essentially zero.
如果我们谈论的是一枚“发射”的核弹头，那么引爆高度也有关系。一般来说，爆炸高度越低，爆炸区域就越“集中”，破坏性就越大，足以摧毁坚固的军事建筑。针对普通平民目标发射的核武器引爆得更高，因为民用建筑通常更容易被摧毁，因此将力量分散到更大的区域会导致更多的建筑被摧毁。当谈到放射性沉降物的危险时，时间、地点和天气都很重要。一般来说，核弹头引爆后，辐射要经过一段时间才会落到地面，通常在12-24小时之间。假设你在最初的爆炸中幸存下来，在这种情况下，辐射沉降物下来之前，关键是要迎风进入更广阔的区域，与急流相反的方向(这通常意味着北半球往西走，南半球往东走）。
军事装置的重大核爆炸几乎肯定会导致报复，然后(可能)由其他方进行进一步的攻击和反击。在某种程度上，这将引发核冬天。杀死植物和动物，导致全球气温骤降到一个新的冰河时代。在多次爆炸和核冬天不可估量的破坏之间，大多数人的生存机会基本上为零。
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Generally, with proper security clearances, you can get within inches of a nuclear weapon and be perfectly safe.
If the thing actually detonates, however, there is no reliable way to determine “safe".
Close enough, you won't have time to worry.
Far enough to survive the blast you will worry about if medical care survived and will reach you in time.
一般来说，有适当的安全许可，你离核武器只有几英寸的距离，也绝对安全。然而，如果这东西真的引爆了，没有可靠的方法来确定“安全”。
距离足够近的话，你没时间考虑安全的。而远到足以在爆炸中幸存下来，你会担心医疗护理是否幸存，是否能及时到达你的身边。
The range of explosive yields of nuclear weapons spans more than 5000:1. There are thermonuclear weapons with 50 megaton yields and tactical nukes of well under 10 kilotons. Hiroshima sized weapons are about 15 kilotons.
And then there's the question of whether the bomb was exploded at the surface or a air blast. Some bombs are meant to drill into the earth and explode below ground to destroy hardened bunkers and launchers rather than cities, buildings and people. That affects how it destroys its surroundings.
Whether or not you have an adequate shelter is also a factor.
Finally what do you mean survive? Survive the initial blast but be injured, survive the initial blast to succomb to radiation poisoning three days later, survive without incident for 30 years, or live to be 90 without your chances of getting cancer increasing by more than 10%?
Too many variables you did not specify.
核武器的爆炸当量范围超过5000:1。有五千万吨当量的热核武器，也有远低于一万吨当量的战术核武器。广岛大小的核武器大约有一万五千吨当量。
还有一个问题是，炸弹是在地面爆炸还是在空中爆炸。有些炸弹的目的是钻入地下，在地下爆炸，摧毁坚固的掩体和发射装置，而不是城市、建筑物和人。这影响了它破坏环境的方式。你是否有一个适当的住所也是一个因素。最后，你说的生存是什么意思?在最初的爆炸中幸存却受伤，在最初的爆炸中幸存三天后死于辐射，还是在没有事故的情况下存活30年，或者活到90岁而患癌症的几率增加了10%以上?有太多变量没有指定。
The answer depends upon many variables, and whether you mean surviving the initial blast, or the exposure to radiation afterwards.
The initial explosion can vary in yield and intensity. Is it a ground strike or an airburst? Conventional or neutron bomb?
Ground zero is not survivable at the center blast radius. Temperatures here are hotter than the surface of the sun.
The initial explosion surges outwards creating a shockwave at hundreds of miles per hour. This shockwave carries debris that can strike and kill you. This initial blast also coincides with a strong electromagnetic pulse of Gamma radiation.
The blast reaches its apex as the vacuum created at ground zero pulls all of the debris back to the center and upwards (which can also strike you), forming the iconic mushroom cloud.
The debris pulled back into the cloud is irradiated. Depending upon speeds of winds aloft and the yield of the weapon, this irradiated debris can scatter downwind for many miles in the shape of a cone.
Earth, concrete, lead, and stone have low transmission factors. This means if you are protected from the initial explosion and your shelter has a low transmission factor, your odds are good that your shelter protected you from the gamma radiation pulse.
The irradiated debris from the fallout cloud is mostly an Alpha and Beta radiation hazzard. If you keep from prolonged dust exposure against your skin and clothing you can prevent ‘beta burns'. A bandana or facemask should keep the alpha radiation out of your lungs.
Hopefully you can find non-contaminated water.
As you can see, a lot of factors come into play, so my answer is - it depends.
答案取决于许多变量，你指的是在最初的爆炸中幸存，还是在之后的辐射中幸存。最初的爆炸在效用和强度上可能有所不同。是地面袭击还是空中爆炸?常规弹还是中子弹?爆炸半径内的原爆点，是没有生存的可能的。这里的温度比太阳表面还要高。最初的爆炸以每小时数百英里的速度向外涌动产生冲击波。这种冲击波携带的碎片可以击中你并杀死你。最初的爆炸同时也伴随着伽马辐射的强烈电磁脉冲。爆炸达到了顶点，因为在零点处产生的真空将所有的碎片拉回中心并向上(这也会击中你)，形成了标志性的蘑菇云。被拉回云团的碎片受到辐射。根据高空风速和武器威力的不同，这些被辐射的碎片可以在顺风方向以圆锥的形状散布数英里。土、混凝土、铅、石头的传导系数低。这意味着，如果你在最初的爆炸中受到保护，而你的掩体的传输系数很低，那么你的掩体保护你免受伽马射线脉冲伤害的几率就很大。放射性尘降云的辐射碎片主要是阿尔法和贝塔辐射危害。如果你的皮肤和衣服没有长时间接触灰尘，你就可以防止“贝塔烧伤”。戴上大手帕或口罩可以防止阿尔法辐射进入你的肺部。希望你能找到无污染的水。正如你所看到的，有很多因素在起作用，所以我的答案是——视情况而定。
It depends on whether it is a 10 kiloton bomb or a 1 megaton bomb. Weapon yield, geography, physical structures, and weather can have a dramatic effect.
without that kind of information a real answer cannot be given
这取决于它是1万吨炸弹还是1百万吨炸弹。武器当量、地理、物理结构和天气都能产生巨大的影响。没有这种信息，就无法给出一个真正的答案。
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At least 10 miles and up wind of the blast to avoid fallout. Also NEVER use conditioner in your hair as it binds to radioactive material.
至少在离爆炸地点10英里的上风处，以避免放射性尘埃。此外，千万不要在头发上使用护发素，因为它会与放射性物质结合。
Unable to answer without details such as;
type of nuclear blast ( fission or fission-fusion, enhanced radiation, etc)
The yield of the blast
Whether a surface, subsurface or air burst, and if an air burst, what altitude.
It also depends on your definition of survival
Give me those details and I will tell you.
没有细节无法回答，如;
1，核爆炸的类型(裂变或裂变-聚变、增强辐射等)
2，爆炸当量
3，是地表、地下还是空中爆炸，如果是空中爆炸，高度是多少。
4，这也取决于你对生存的定义
告诉我细节，我就告诉你答案。
The variables include: if it is an air blast or ground zero detonation; the kiloton or megaton yield of the detonation; weather conditions; geological barriers; concrete-steel structures versus wood frxd buildings; exposed above ground versus seeking shelter below ground; overlay of earth and/or other shelter characteristics providing a shield to radiation, overpressure and blast wave of detonation.
Generally, most nuclear weapons in today’s arsenals of the nuclear powers are in the low megaton or high kiloton range. Strategic changes in the use of nuclear weapons has over time gone from ground zero detonations of a high megaton yielding device, to multiple air blasts of lower yielding megaton to higher yielding kiloton devices. This change limits radioactive particles being carried into the atmosphere but expands the blast zone and the resulting blast wave created. It also generally dilutes the overpressure across a wider radius, but still generally sufficient to flatten standard constructed structures and seriously damage more robust concrete-steel structures.
In what is considered to be an “average” detonation, the radius from an air blast suffering the most damage, including to human life, will be between 2–3 miles; less if sheltering in various types of structures especially below ground. Ground zero blasts affect a smaller radius from the detonation center, down to >1 mile.
Within the calculus there is a range of variables which will determine the immediate survivability of a person, however, exposure to high levels of radiation can result in death over the course of weeks, and cancer rates proportionally increase with exposure as well.
变量包括:是否是空中爆炸或爆震;爆炸当量为千吨级还是兆吨级;天气条件;地质屏障;钢筋混凝土结构还是木结构建筑;暴露在地上还是在地下寻求庇护;有无地面或其他遮蔽特性的覆盖物，以提供对辐射、超压和爆震波的屏蔽。一般来说，当今核大国武库中的大多数核武器都在低百万吨或高千吨范围内。随着时间的推移，核武器使用的战略变化已经从高百万吨当量装置的地爆，到低百万吨当量装置的空中爆炸，再到高千吨当量。这一变化限制了放射性粒子进入大气，但扩大了爆炸区域和由此产生的冲击波。它通常也会在更大的半径范围内稀释超压，但通常仍足以夷平标准结构，并严重破坏更坚固的混凝土-钢结构。在所谓的“平均”爆炸中，空气爆炸造成的损害(包括对人类生命的损害)最大的半径将在2-3英里之间;在各种类型的结构中，特别是在地下，遮蔽较少。地原爆点影响半径较小，只有从爆炸中心到1英里。在计算中，一系列变量会决定一个人的即时生存，然而，暴露在高水平辐射下可在数周内导致死亡，癌症发病率也随着暴露而成比例地增加。
This includes effects from the blast, such as radiation
I'm not a physicist, and certainly not a nuclear one. Also while a lot of information is available about these types of weapon systems some is still classified.
The answer to your question would depend on many factors such as the yield of the device, the specific method of delivery, the elevation at the point of detonation, geography and terrain considerations, weather, and no doubt many others, such as the materials your home is built from, or the source of your drinking water.
The yield of the device is relevant because it tells you something about the size of the blast, and the amount of radioactivity.
The method of delivery and elevation of detonation can effect the blast radius, and cratering, as well as the fallout.
The makeup of the terrain and geography can play a roll in the blast and subsequent fallout.
The weather can have a huge effect on the dispersion of fallout after the blast. For one thing, if the wind blows the fallout away from you then you will be able to be much closer to the blast site .
I have also read that the most dangerous radioactivity of the fallout decays by 90% after 49 hours, and another 90% after two weeks.
I just simply am not knowledgeable enough on the subject to answer your question, but I hope my answer has some relevant information to further considerations.
这包括爆炸的影响，如辐射。
我不是物理学家，当然也不是核物理学家。此外，虽然有很多关于这类武器系统的信息，但有些仍然是机密的。你问题的答案将取决于许多因素,如炸弹的当量,具体的实施方法,爆炸的高度,地理和地形,天气,毫无疑问还有其他的因素,比如家里的材料是由什么做的,或你的饮用水的来源。炸弹当量很有关系，因为它能告诉你爆炸的规模和放射量。发射方式和起爆高度会影响爆炸半径、成坑和沉降物。地形和地理的构成会对爆炸和随后的放射性沉降物产生影响。在爆炸后，天气会对沉降物的扩散产生巨大的影响。首先，如果风把放射性沉降物吹离你，那么你就能离爆炸地点近点。我还读到过，放射性沉降物中最危险的放射性物质在49小时后衰减90%，两周后再衰减剩下的90%。我没有足够的知识来回答你的问题，但我希望我的回答有一些相关的信息，以供进一步考虑。
Wow! It's an explosion, so you have the blast radius. There is also heat, and radiation. The yield of the weapon determines the safe distance for all three. If you hope for survival you must find a protected location, one heat resistant, sound against blast overpressure, and impervious to radiation. In short, either dig a very deep hole or don't be exposed in the first place.
哇!这是一次爆炸，所以有爆炸半径。还有热和辐射。武器的当量决定了三种因素的安全距离。有标准的生存曲线可用。如果你希望生存下去，你必须找到一个受保护的地方，一个耐热，抗爆炸超压，不受辐射影响的地方。简而言之，要么挖一个很深的洞，要么一开始就不要暴露出来。
As mentioned by Mark Werner the size of the bomb, and the kind of bomb, as well as where you are when the bomb went off. Including how far from the bomb's ground zero. All these aspects would be critical to an accurate answer. Another aspect not mentioned here would be what type of detonation of the bomb would occur.
There are three types:
Air burst: the bomb explodes high in the air, so the fire ball does not touch the ground. Heat energy and ionizing radiation would be the most intense. Less fallout radiation.
Ground burst: the bomb explodes lower, but still in the atmosphere. The fireball does touch the ground. More heat, more ionizing radiation, more shock wave energy, more fallout radiation. Less radius of damage. Still anti-personnel, but greater facilities damage as well.
Subterranean burst: bomb hits the ground than detonates. Smaller radius of damage, but damage is more severe in that radius. Heat and ionizing radiation does not extend as far either, but there is a crater. Therefore shock wave travels through the ground similar to an earthquake. Fallout radiation is drawn up greater over a large area, for a longer period of time, and goes downwind further. Of course less anti-personnel, but death is 100% at ground zero and to the extent of the crater.
An instance where the bomb was small, and an air burst was the bomb over Hiroshima.
正如马克·沃纳所提到的，取决于炸弹的大小，炸弹的种类，以及炸弹爆炸时你在哪里。包括离爆炸地点有多远。所有这些方面都是准确答案的关键。这里没有提到的另一个方面是炸弹的引爆方式。
有三种类型
空中爆炸：炸弹在高空爆炸，所以火球不会接触到地面。热能和电离辐射是最强烈的。尘埃辐射较小。杀伤人员。
地面爆炸：炸弹在低处爆炸，但仍在大气层中。火球确实触地了。更多的热量，更多的电离辐射，更多的冲击波能量，更多的尘埃辐射。更小的伤害半径。仍然杀伤人员,但更大的设施也遭到了破坏。
地下爆炸:炸弹击中地面后引爆。伤害半径较小，但在此范围内伤害更严重。热和电离辐射也没有那么远，但会有一个弹坑。因此，震波穿过地面的方式与地震类似。沉降物会在更大的范围内吸收更大的辐射，持续时间更长，而且会向下风移动得更远。有一个例子是在广岛上空爆炸的小型原子弹。
Based on the two dropped on Japan, at least eight miles, or six or seven if you are behind a thick stone wall. Hiroshima was destroyed in a ten mile radius around the bomb dropped on it, but there were survivors, though not many, within that radius. However, hydrogen bombs are far more powerful than atomic bombs, so you would either need a really, really thick stone wall or well over fourteen miles distance. Fourteen MILES!!! My goodness!
根据两颗落在日本的原子弹来看，至少要有8英里，如果你躲在一堵厚厚的石墙后面，大概是6或7英里。广岛在10英里的范围内被摧毁,炸弹在它上方掉了下来,但在这个半径范围内,仍有幸存者,尽管没有多少。然而，氢弹比原子弹威力大得多，所以你要么需要一堵非常非常厚的石墙，要么需要14英里以上的距离。14英里! !我的天哪!
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As with many things, it depends.
It depends upon the size (yield) of the weapon. Just like a conventional bomb or explosion, the larger the yield, the more distance required.
It depends upon one’s protection. Standing in the open will require far more distance; sitting in an underground bunker will require far less distance. Because blast waves travel line-of-site and earth is a good radiation absorber, even lying down in a ditch, foxhole, or other depression in the ground can enable one to survive both the blast and the radiation much closer to the detonation.
Then, of course, it also can depend upon many other factors. Is the detonation an airburst or ground burst? The latter will create fallout, which means wind direction, wind speed, and other weather features will come into play. With fallout, one may require much more distance from the blast downwind than upwind. If it is raining, less distance may be required, even downwind, to survive fallout.
In sum, however, a little bit of training, thought, preparation, and protection can enable folks to survive far closer to a nuclear blast than one might imagine.
与许多事情一样,这要视情况而定。
这取决于武器的大小(当量)。就像常规炸弹或爆炸一样，当量越大，所需的距离就越大。
还取决于保护体是什么。站在开阔的地方需要更远的距离;在地下掩体里需要的距离则要短得多。
由于冲击波沿爆炸地点是直线传播，而地球是一个很好的辐射吸收器，即使躺在沟渠、散兵坑或地面上的其他凹陷处，也能使人在爆炸和辐射中存活下来。
当然，这还取决于许多其他因素。这个爆炸是空中爆炸还是地面爆炸?后者将产生沉降物，这意味着风向、风速和其他天气特征将发挥作用。如果下雨，需要的距离可能会更短，即使是在顺风方向，也能躲过坠尘。总之，只要稍加训练、思考、准备和保护，人们就能在离核爆炸更近的地方生存下来。
To put into reference I will use San Francisco. If the bomb were to hit dead center, all of those in the city would perish. Those across the Bay Bridge, near Oakland would be safe, but would probably have burns, scrapes, and many would also die due to buildings collapsing. So about 10–20 miles out side of the zone you should be fine. Due be wary that fallout can spread hundreds of miles.
我将用旧金山作为参考。如果炸弹击中市中心，城里所有的人都会死。那些穿过奥克兰附近海湾大桥的人是安全的，但可能会被烧伤，擦伤，许多人也会因为建筑物倒塌而死亡。所以离这个区域大约10到20英里你应该没事。但要小心，放射性沉降物可能会蔓延数百英里。
the spread of radioactive fallout Depends on an incredible number of different things.
1 the yield, which you have helpfully set at 1 megaton
2 the altitude of detonation
3 and a variety of environmental conditions especially wind patterns.
if the weapon is detonated in the air high enough that the fire ball doesn’t touch the ground, then fallout will be limited.
The more of the fireball that touches the ground, the more Radioactive material gets thrown up into the air for the wind to scatter. The exact distance possible for the fallout to be carried is hard to say, but I’d imagine with a ground detonation and strong wind currents you could detect some radioactive material from insane distances. As for distances where dangerous levels of fallout occur, that depends on weather patterns and altitude of detonation. Remember, the greater the area the fallout is scattered across, the lower the radioactivity in that area.
hopefully someone will come by and give some actual numbers, but I’d imagine they’d have to set some more parameters in order to do so
as for how long the fallout is dangerous, after 2 weeks it should be plenty safe to leave shelter and evacuate. I wouldn’t want to stick around outside though
remember that Hiroshima and Nagasaki were rebuilt fairly quickly, so the fallout wasn’t a long lasting issue.
放射性沉降物的扩散取决于许多不同因素。
1，当量，你设定的100万吨
2，爆炸高度
3，以及各种环境条件，尤其是风的类型。
如果武器在足够高的空中引爆，火球不会接触到地面，那么落尘将是有限的。火球越靠近地面，就有越多的放射性物质被抛到空中，让风驱散。放射性尘降物可能影响的确切距离还很难说，但我可以想象，通过地面爆炸和强劲的风流，你从非常远的距离都可以探测到一些放射性物质。至于危险放射性尘降物波及的距离，这取决于天气模式和爆炸的高度。记住，放射性尘降物散落的区域越大，该区域的放射性就越低。希望有人能过来给出一些实际的数字，但我想他们必须设置更多的参数才能做到这一点。至于放射性沉降物有多危险，两周后应该足够安全，可以离开避难所和撤离，我可不想在外面逗留，但要记得广岛和长崎重建得很快，所以放射性尘埃不是一个长期持续的问题。