UK households face biggest fall in living standards since 1950s, say experts
-Russian invasion of Ukraine could further hike global energy prices and cut real incomes by 3.1%, economists fear

专家称,英国家庭面临着自上世纪50年代以来最大的生活水平下降
——经济学家担心,俄罗斯打击乌克兰可能会进一步推高全球能源价格,并使实际收入减少3.1%
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处



(Rising energy bills are likely to further push up inflation, economist predict.)

(经济学家预测,不断上涨的能源账单可能会进一步推高通胀。)
新闻:

UK households could suffer the biggest annual decline in their living standards since the 1950s as the Russian invasion of Ukraine pushes up global energy prices, experts have warned.

专家警告称,由于俄罗斯“入侵”乌克兰推高了全球能源价格,英国家庭生活水平可能遭遇自上世纪50年代以来最大的年度下降。

With inflation already at the highest rate for 30 years, analysts said a sustained rise for wholesale oil and gas markets would further add to the squeeze on families from soaring utility bills.

由于通胀率已经处于30年来的最高水平,分析师表示,石油和天然气批发市场的持续上涨,将进一步加剧公用事业费用飙升给家庭带来的压力。

Analysts at Bank of America said that under such a scenario household real income could plunge by 3.1% in 2022 compared with a year earlier, in the biggest annual drop since at least 1956, the year of the Suez crisis.

美国银行的分析师表示,在这种情况下,2022年家庭实际收入可能较上年同期下降3.1%,这是至少自1956年(也就是苏伊士运河危机爆发的那一年)以来的最大年度降幅。

In what would mark a worse squeeze than during the oil shock of the 1970s, it comes after wholesale European gas prices rocketed on Thursday after Russian tanks rolled over the border in a full-scale invasion.

这将是一次比上世纪70年代石油危机期间更严重的紧缩。此前,在俄罗斯坦克全面开进乌克兰后,欧洲天然气批发价格在周四飙升。

Although gas prices fell back on Friday on a calmer day for financial markets, analysts warned they remained higher than the start of the week and could surge higher again should tensions between Moscow and the west escalate further.

尽管上周五天然气价格回落,对金融市场来说,这是一个较为平静的日子,但分析师警告称,价格仍高于本周初,如果莫斯科与西方之间的紧张局势进一步升级,价格可能再次飙升。

European stock markets closed higher on Friday with the FTSE 100 up 260 points, or 3.6%, while commodity prices reversed some of Thursday’s leaps. The oil price fell back from almost $106 per barrel to about $98, while wholesale gas prices dropped from 350p per therm to about 250p.

欧洲股市周五收高,富时100指数上涨260点,涨幅3.6%,而大宗商品价格则逆转了周四的部分涨幅。油价从每桶近106美元回落至约98美元,而天然气批发价格从每千卡350便士降至约250便士。

However, this week’s increases have fed through to petrol and diesel prices at filling stations across Britain. The RAC said prices rose to new record highs for the fourth time this week, with unleaded at almost 150p per litre and the price of diesel above 153p for the first time ever.

然而,本周的涨价已经影响到英国各地加油站的汽油和柴油价格。英国皇家汽车俱乐部表示,本周汽油价格第四次创下历史新高,无铅汽油价格接近每升150便士,柴油价格首次超过153便士。
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


It comes with inflation already at the highest level since 1992, having reached 5.5% last month as the world economy grapples with the fallout from Covid-19. Even before the Russian invasion, the Bank of England forecast inflation would reach more than 7% in April when Ofgem, the UK energy regulator, increases its household price cap by 54% to reflect a winter surge in gas prices.

与此同时,由于全球经济正在应对新冠肺炎的影响,通胀率已经达到了1992年以来的最高水平,上个月达到了5.5%。甚至在俄罗斯发动进攻之前,英格兰银行就预测通胀率将在4月份达到7%以上,当时英国能源监管机构天然气与电力市场办公室将其家庭价格上限提高了54%,以反映冬季天然气价格的飙升。

However, analysts warned the conflict in Ukraine could drive up the inflation rate further still, possibly to more than 8% this year and remaining above the Bank’s 2% target rate for longer than previously thought.

不过,分析人士警告称,乌克兰的冲突可能会进一步推高通胀率,今年的通胀率可能会超过8%,并在高于英国央行2%目标的时间上保持更久。

Should gas, electricity and oil prices persist at levels reached on Thursday, Bank of America said inflation could be about 1.9 percentage points higher than previously thought by the end of the year, sticking close to 6%.

美国银行表示,如果天然气、电力和石油价格继续维持在周四达到的水平,那么到今年年底,通胀率可能会比此前预计的高1.9个百分点,接近6%。

With growth of workers’ pay, benefits and other sources of income failing to keep pace, real household income could fall by 3.1% this year, “comfortably the largest calendar year fall since at least 1956”, according to the US bank.

由于工人工资、福利和其他收入来源的增长未能跟上步伐,今年实际家庭收入可能下降3.1%,据美国银行称,“这是至少自1956年以来最大的日历年降幅”。

Robert Wood, UK economist at Bank of America, said: “There is a lot of volatility. Energy prices have subsequently dropped very sharply today, so the numbers wouldn’t look as negative for real incomes. It’s a risk scenario based on where energy prices got to on Thursday. We’re substantially below that now but there is always a risk they could go up again.

美国银行英国经济学家罗伯特·伍德表示:“市场波动很大。能源价格随后在今天急剧下跌,因此这些数字对实际收入来说不会看起来是负面的。这是一个基于周四能源价格的风险情景。我们现在明显低于这个水平,但总有再次上涨的风险。

“If inflation is higher there is a bigger fall for real incomes. We’re looking at this year a very large reduction in households spending power compared with previous years. How the economy navigates through that is quite uncertain.”

“如果通胀更高,那么实际收入的下降幅度更大。我们看到今年的家庭消费能力与前几年相比大幅下降。经济要怎么渡过这一难关还相当不确定。”

The hit to living standards is expected to affect poorer households most, as lower-income families spend proportionally more on essentials such as energy and food than richer households.

生活水平受到的打击预计对较贫困家庭的影响最大,因为较低收入家庭在能源和食品等必需品上的支出比例高于较富裕家庭。

Weaker consumer spending power is also likely to act as a drag on economic growth, slowing the UK economy and raising questions over the Bank of England’s plans to raise interest rates and the government response to the cost of living crisis.

消费者消费能力减弱也可能拖累经济增长,拖累英国经济,并对英国央行的加息计划和应对生活成本危机的政府措施提出质疑。

“In time the conflict will also broaden and deepen the living standards squeeze here at home,” said Torsten Bell, the chief executive of the Resolution Foundation thinktank. “The chances of low- and middle-income households getting some respite from the growing squeeze on living standards later this year are receding rapidly.”

智库“决议基金会”的首席执行官托尔斯滕·贝尔说:“随着时间的推移,这场冲突还会扩大和加深国内的生活水平挤压。今年晚些时候,中低收入家庭在生活水平日益下降的情况下获得喘息的机会正在迅速减少。”