QA:日本经济出了什么问题？
What went wrong with the Japanese economy?
译文简介
网友：直截了当的回答就是日本已经老了。我的意思是，每个季度都会有很多的因素影响经济的发展，这些因素会导致经济起起伏伏，但日本有一个难以克服的一个因素，那就是人口老龄化，这使得日本的经济很难增长...
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日本经济出了什么问题？
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Blunt and unvarnished answer? Here’s why: Japan is old!
I mean, there are a million factors that go into economic growth in any given quarter, and those will come along and rise and fall and whatever, but Japan has an overwhelming factor that makes economic growth very difficult, and that’s the aging population.
直截了当的回答就是日本已经老了。我的意思是，每个季度都会有很多的因素影响经济的发展，这些因素会导致经济起起伏伏，但日本有一个难以克服的一个因素，那就是人口老龄化，这使得日本的经济很难增长。
日本是世界上预期寿命最高的国家，人均寿命84岁，但日本也是世界上出生率最低的国家之一。他们是世界上第一批生育率低于更替率的国家之一（1959年首次达到这个点）。现在日本的生育率有所提高，几十年之前日本的生育率低至1.3。
因此，日本三分之一的人口都在60岁之上。成人纸尿裤的销量现在超过了婴儿纸尿裤，这是历史上任何一个国家都没有出现过的事情。这意味着适龄劳动人口在不断减少，同时还要必须照顾不断增加的退休人员。日本往往对增加移民补充劳动力的做法持反对态度。，因此在资源有限的情况下，发展经济的工人数量变得越来越少。
Not only that they are not allowing Immigration, but the work/life balance is terrible, meaning that they bluntly put have less time to procreate
日本不仅不允许移民，而且在平衡工作和生活方面做的也很不好，这意味着他们没有多少时间去生育子女。
Lower fertility rates are probably just part of living in a developed country. Before the industrial revolution, fertility rates were higher but so were death rates. Another thing worth noting is that back then, children were an asset, not a liability. They helped their parents work on the farms As for aristocrats, having kids was a way to pass on your legacy.
Following the industrial revolution, the benefits of having many children went down as people moved away from the farms and towards big cities. Not only can’t children really help you with your work but you have to cover their expenses.
或许低生育率就是发达国家生活的一部分。在工业革命之前，生育率很高，但死亡率同样也很高。另一件值得注意的事情就是，以前孩子是资产，而不是负债。他们可以帮助父母在农场工作，对于贵族来说，他们需要有一个孩子来继承自己的遗产。工业革命之后，随着人们从农场向大城市迁移，多生孩子的好处不断的下降。孩子门不仅帮不了你的工作，而且你还要在他们身上花钱。
The government of Japan should step in, To change their work culture to be more family friendly. That is the only way.
日本政府应该介入，要改变工作文化，使其变得对家庭生活更加的友好。这是唯一的解决办法。
Believe me, they’re trying—the problem is that the stuff they’ve tried isn’t really working.
They just have no clue what to do, either because they don’t really understand the problem, or simply aren’t willing to acknowledge and admit it.
相信我，他们正在尝试，问题是他们尝试的方法并没有真正起作用。他们对此毫无头绪，要么是因为他们不了解这个问题，要么就是不愿意承认问题的存在。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Immigration creates more complex problems . Many societies are able to assimilate immigrants better and both individual and society benefit from that like USA but I don't think Japanese society is capable of that and not their fault . Japanese people like to preserve their homogeneity and culture .
移民会让问题变得更加的复杂，许多社会可以更好的吸收移民，让个人和社会都能从中获益，比如美国，但我认为日本社会没有能力做到这一点，这不是他们的错，日本人民喜欢保持同质性的文化。
The nation of Japan, right now, this minute, is in a demographic crisis which is only going to get worse with time. Even if they could get fertility rates back up, there’s way too much demographic inertia to turn the situation around in less than a century.
日本这个国家现在正在处于人口危机之中，随着时间的推移，问题会变得越来越严重。即便他们可以让生育率回升，但人口惯性实在是太大了，很难在不到一个世纪的时间里扭转局面。
日本在吸收大量移民方面存在着很大的困难，我对此非常的清楚。我在日本生活过几年，我很清楚日本的单一文化是怎么样的。而且我觉得日本人看待事物的方式并没有什么问题。我欣赏并尊敬日本文化，我希望它可以得到保留。
Well, the sheer reality is that a lot of Japanese would rather die off rather than assimilate foreigners.
My dad finds it sad that a lot of his favorite places that he enjoyed are gone due to the older people passing away and their families not wanting to take over the family trade.
But he doesn't necessarily see immigration as the answer.
现实就是很多日本人宁愿死也不愿意和外国人同化。由于老年人不断的离世而他们的家人又不愿意接手家族生意，我父亲悲哀的发现，很多自己喜欢的地方都不见了。但他依然觉得外来移民未必就是解决问题的办法。
They did accept a considerable amount of Japanese-Brazilians. Some didn’t like the work culture there and went back. It’s hard to get a good job in Japan if you didn’t go to a prestigious Japanese University too, so even guys with good Brazilian diplomas had a hard time and had to work at jobs they were overqualified.
他们确实接纳了相当多的日裔巴西人。有些人不喜欢日本的工作文化，然后又回到了巴西。如果你不是日本名校毕业的话，在日本是很难找到好的工作的，即便你在巴西获得了很好的文凭也很难，所以最后只能做一些大材小用的工作。
Historically, Japanese society has been indifferent to the needs of immigrants, at best. That needs to change if the country wants to survive.
长久以来，日本社会一直对移民的需求漠不关心。如果日本这个国家还想继续存在下去的话，那么就需要做出改变。
In fact immigration is key to the development of every country whether you like it or not
Japan can adopt the Canadian style of immigration
Inviting educated individuals into the country to complement their working population. Japan is a sucessful country and they will be willing.
不管你喜欢与否，移民对每个国家的发展都是至关重要的。日本可以采取加拿大的移民模式。邀请受过教育的人进入自己的国家，以补充劳动力。日本是一个成功国家，移民是愿意去那里的。
Lots of assumptions here… if they’ve never had mass migration who knows how they really would react to it. Japanese society is generally very polite and non confrontational, much more than in Anglo countries, so the reaction maybe would be more muted. Also since Japan has an advanced economy they could literally pick and choose what types of immigrants they wanted.
这里很多人都是在假设，既然日本从来没有接收过大规模的移民，那么谁又能真正知道他们对此会有何反应。日本社会一般都是非常重视礼节的，不会像盎撒国家那样充满对抗性，所以他们的反应或许会更加的温和。而且由于日本经济发达，实际上，他们可以自己挑选自己想要的移民类型。
sounds like you don’t know about East Asian culture in general, and Japanese culture in particular. East Asian culture, Chinese, Korean, Japanese, Vietnamese, we, I say here, we, all highly value harmony and homogeneity. We are suspicious of outsiders, because they don’t follow the rule in our lands. It’s the same everywhere to be resistant to outsiders, but it’s much, much bigger issue for East Asian countries who have long history of homogeneity and suffered alot from invasion of outsiders, even just the invasion from neighborhood countries.
看起来你并不了解东亚文化，尤其是不了解日本文化。东亚文化，如中国文化，韩国文化，日本文化和越南文化，都是高度重视和谐和同质性的。我们不相信外来者，因为他们不遵守我们土地上的规矩。其实每个地方都一样，都非常的抗拒外来者，但东亚国家在这个问题上尤其的严重，因为他们的同质化的历史非常的悠久，而且经常遭到外敌的入侵，甚至有的入侵就是来自于邻国。
是的，日本人很有礼貌，没有什么对抗性。你去他们家，他们会开门欢迎你，然后请你吃饭，你也可以长时间在他们家做客。但你永远只是客人而已。如果你和他们不一样的话，那就永远无法成为他们的家人。
Woah! So despite the decreasing population, it is still crowded.
虽然日本人口正在减少，但依然还是很拥挤
Japan has little to no natural resources so not allowing immigration is understandable. It is not an immigration country anyway like America or Australia is anyway.
日本是一个任何自然资源的国家，所以不允许移民是可以理解的。和美国澳大利亚不同，日本不是一个移民国家。
Yet, there are a few considerations to be made:
Those retirees will inevitably due (unless anti-aging treatments become effective), and this will then free some sorely needed space in an over-populated country; a similar case is South Korea. In addition, less people means more resources available.
但我们要考虑到以下几点
不管抗衰老治疗多么的有效，这些退休的人最终都会不可避免的死去，这可以为人口过多的国家释放出急需的空间，韩国的情况同样也是如此。而且人口减少意味着可用的资源增加了。
养老金制度是不可持续的，因为它需要每年数百万新的年轻人进入职场，这是相当不现实的。如今，在许多处于人口更替率以下的国家中，公共养老金体系已经难以为继。
外来移民同样造成负担：你认为你计划要求的成千上万的外来移民就都是受过高等教育会说日语的人吗？就算他们是，那么他们的家人和年纪较大的亲戚呢？
你的文章中同样也没有将自动化技术考虑在内，随着技术的发展，自动化技术预计可以取代40%到50%的工作，甚至更加复杂的，从程序员到律师甚至外科医生的工作都有可能被取代。
最后，你的设想是基于持续增长的想法，但考虑到地球资源的有限性，这显然是无法实现的。简短地说就是日本的人口和经济不可能继续增长下去。
Yes those retirees will eventually die, and more people will inevitably age. If reducing population is your goal, that’s fine, but it has to be managed slowly. A rapid decline in population is catastrophic because it requires highly skewed demographics.
没错，退休人员最终会离世，更多人将会不可避免的老去。如果你的目标是减少人口，那一点问题都没有，但必须要慢慢来。人口数量的急速下滑会造成灾难性后果，因为人口结构会被高度的扭曲。
你提出了问题但却没有提出解决方案。养老金只有在收支平衡的情况下才能持续下去。我同意他们必须在此基础上进行管理，但我们必须要有能够生产产品和服务的工人。如果没有了工人，那么也就没有了经济活动。
如果对此什么都不做的话，那么就要付出更多的代价。在人口统计学中，有一个叫人口红利的术语。出生率下滑的时候，需要抚养的人数就会减少，劳动人口的比例就会上升，经济就会向上发展。问题在于，这一代孩子变老以后，可取代退休人员的工人数量就会减少，而到时就必须支付人口红利的代价。日本多年来一直在享受这个红利，现在是时候承担后果了。你的选择是生更多的孩子（但至少要经过18年的养育和教育才能排上用场）或让更多的移民进入，让他们融入本地社会和经济，这样就可以降低时间和资金上的成本。日本鼓励生育的能力已经严重不足，所以唯一可行的只有第二条选项。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
According to the Hofstede cultural dimension, Japan culture is also somewhat like the Germans where the relationship is valued. Its also an obligation to work at least 60 hours a week leaving less time for leisure, and procreation. The immigration laws aren’t also attractive to foreign workers. Recently they passed a bill that encourages the Japanese women to apply for more social benefits and money if they can have more kids, but the plan seems to be less effective! Hungary is another country going through a thesame thing and probably the USA will be next.
根据霍夫斯塔德的文化维度理论，日本文化和重视关系的德国文化有点类似。日本每周工作时间不少于60个小时，留给休闲和生儿育女的时间较少。日本的移民法对于外国工人来说也没有什么吸引力。最近日本通过了一项法案，如果日本女性能生育更多孩子的话，就可以申请更多的社会福利和金钱奖励，但是这项计划似乎并不怎么有效。匈牙利会是另一个遇到这个问题的国家，而美国可能就是下一个。
There's numerous studies that show increasing work loads quickly begin to give diminishing returns and eventually actually reduce overall productivity. It's become Vogue in Japan to fall asleep at your desk as proof that you're a hard worker.
Economy's grow on productivity, innovation and creativity. Overworked people become less productive, innovative and creative. Japan's solution to its economic stagnation of dialling up the work hours to 11 is the exact opposite of a solution.
有大量的研究表明，工作量的快速增加会导致收益递减，最终会降低整体的生产力。在办公桌上睡着以证明自己工作努力已经成为了日本的一种时尚。经济发展取决于生产率，创新和创造能力。而工作量过大会降低人们的生产力，创新以及创造力。日本解决经济停滞的方法是将工作时间延长到11个小时，但这样做恰恰适得其反。
Other than healthcare, old people spend much less than young people. They are likely to already own their homes, own an old car and unlikely to change to a new car. These are the two costliest items that anyone would buy. The GDP drops when real estate and car sales stagnant. Their personal needs and entertainment cost far less than young people. As the population ages, spending reduces and the economy suffers.
除了医疗支出以外，老年人的消费能力要远远低于年轻人。老年人可能已经拥有了自己的房子，还有一辆旧车，不太可能再去换新车。房子和车子是任何人都会买的最贵的两样东西。当房地产和汽车销售停滞不前的时候，GDP就会下滑。老年人的个人需求和娱乐消费能力远没有年轻人那么高。随着人口老龄化，消费下滑，经济发展就会遇到困难。
IIRC the reason for this situation is because the Japanese are obsessed with work and avoid having a family/kids to make progress in their professional life.
出现这种情况的原因是日本人痴迷于工作，为了获得事业上的发展而避免成家立业。
Actually, there is a culture developing in Japan where younger men and women have little interest in each other. This contributes to the declining birth rate as well.
实际上，日本正在形成一种让男女双方对彼此都不感兴趣的文化。这进一步促进了出生率的下滑。
Will AI solve the problem？
人工智能可以解决这个问题吗？
The only realistic solution, at this point, is encouraging immigration of young people. Now, this would bring problems of its own, particularly in a country as monolithic as Japan, but there really aren't any other viable models. Japan, however, seems disinclined to promote this.
现在唯一现实的解决方案就是鼓励外来的年轻移民进入日本。但这又会带来新的问题，尤其是在日本这样一个单一民族国家，但除此以外，已经没有其他任何可行的方法了。但是日本似乎并不愿意推动移民计划。
Poor corporate culture
Being a “good employee” is not marked by productivity, rather by how many hours you work. Many employees keep “working” even when there is nothing left to do.
This translates to poor levels of productivity. Currently, Japan’s productivity is below the OCED average and a third less than the US.
Then there is a lack of discussion within companies. Manager decisions are rarely challenged.
This also has to do with the strict hierarchy in Japan. You're not supposed to challenge someone “higher” than you.
You need to have robust discussions to be an innovator.
糟糕的企业文化
在日本，评价是不是一个好员工看的不是他的生产力，而是工作时间。许多员工在无事可做的情况下仍继续“工作”。这使得日本的生产力水平很低。现在，日本的生产力水平处于经合组织平均线以下，不到美国的三分之一。
日本企业内部缺乏讨论。管理者的决策很少受到挑战，这与日本严格的等级制度有关。你不能挑战等级比你高的人。要进行创新，就需要进行活跃的讨论。