QA：英国正在衰落吗？

Paul M Calvert, Author of Imperium Betrayal, Londoner, inquisitive soul
No. Living standards have never been higher nor our children better educated.
Our global soft power is second to none, and for a smallish nation our military is adequate and advanced.
The Commonwealth is a far better organisation than the UN and having friends in it is better than having an Empire.
Our legal system is a model for the world, as is our parliamentary system and civil service.
Scientific achievements are still up there with the best and London still remains the world city.
Socially, we are far less immobile and our tolerance for other cultures and beliefs is a model for the world to emulate.
It's by no means perfect, but for the ordinary, everyday Brit, life's far better now.
I wouldn't want to live anywhere else.

英国没有在衰落。虽然生活水平从来没有提高过，我们的孩子也没有受过更好的教育。
我们的全球软实力是首屈一指的，对于一个小国来说，我们的军队是充足和先进的。
英联邦是一个比联合国好得多的组织，在英联邦里广交朋友比拥有一个大英帝国要好得多。
我们的法律制度是世界的典范，我们的议会制度和公务员制度也是如此。
科学成就仍然是世界上最好的，伦敦仍然是世界都会。
在社会上，我们远没有那么固步自封，我们对其他文化和信仰的宽容是全世界效仿的榜样。
英国绝非十全十美之地，但对于普通的英国人来说，现在的生活要比以前好得多。
我从未想过搬到别的地方住。

Dave Waghorn, British citizen with an interest in [primarily local] history
Morally, yes.
Politically, yes.
Economically, no.
In influence over other nations, yes.
As a leader in sustainable energy technology, yes.
In sport, no.
As a soft touch for huge corporations and mega-rich moguls, no.
As a safe haven for the poor and needy, yes.
As a tourist attraction, probably not.
As a genuinely united kingdom, yes.
As a convenient, pliable plaything for rich right-wingers, no.
As a country that I'm proud to belong to, yes.
 
道德上，是的。
政治上，是的。
经济上，没有。
对其他国家的影响力，是的。
作为可持续能源技术的领导者，是的。
在体育上，没有。
作为大公司和超级富豪们的缓冲带，没有。
作为穷人的避风港，是的。
作为一个旅游景点，可能没有。
作为一个真正的联合王国，是的。
作为富有右翼的玩物，没有。
作为一个我感到自豪的国家，是的。

Thomas Dalton
Originally Answered: Is Britain in perpetual decline?
No. Foreign direct investment is good for an economy and demonstrates that people in other countries think Britain is going to do well in the future and want to be part of that.
Britain has obviously declined in global influence since the height of the Empire when it ruled a quarter of the world but it isn't still declining. As with the rest of the developed world, it is being caught up by emerging economies but I don't think it is accurate to characterise that as a decline (Britain is still growing, just not as fast).
 
英国没有在衰退。来自外国的直接投资对一个经济体是有好处的，这表明其他国家的人认为英国在未来会做得很好，并希望成为其中的一部分。
自大英帝国鼎盛时期统治世界四分之一地区以来，英国的全球影响力明显下降，但现在没有继续下降。与其他发达国家一样，它正被新兴经济体赶超，但我认为将其描述为衰退并不准确（英国仍在增长，只是速度没有那么快）。

Robert Cameron, I am British!
People, especially Brits, have been moaning about this for more than a century. There has certainly been a sharp decline in relative hard power, and of course UK share of world GDP has declined, as has that of most early-developed nations. We took a hit in 2008, but the absolute standard of living is generally increasing. I think there are all sorts of things wrong with our economy, but I doubt if they are much different from those affecting many other countries.
 
一个多世纪以来，人们，尤其是英国人，一直在为此抱怨。英国的相对硬实力显然在急剧下降，当然英国在世界GDP中的份额也下降了，大多数早期发达国家也是如此。我们在2008年遭受了打击，但我们的生活水平普遍在提高。我认为我们的经济存在各种各样的问题，但我怀疑这些问题是否与影响许多其他国家的类似问题有很大不同。

Avikant Aggrawal, London bridge is falling down
yes
Britain is experiencing the same decline as Rome in 100BC, with the collapse of civilization inevitable
Britons no longer have the genetic temperament to advance because of decades of peace and a high standard of living.
the huge success of the Victorian era will not be repeated because people in the UK have lost the biological drive for innovation.
Instead, Britain is existing in a period similar to the decades before the fall of the Roman Republic where social tensions were rife, the gap between the rich and poor was increasing and extremism was growing.
And when added to a growing distaste for military action, which has seen huge cuts the armed forces, by the end of the century the UK will no longer have the power, or will, to protect itself against a serious invading force
all civilisations move in cycles fuelled by environmental factors such as famine, religion and war which change the temperament of a nation
 
英国在衰落。
英国正经历着与公元前100年罗马一样的衰落，文明的崩溃不可避免
由于几十年的和平和高水平的生活，英国人不再具有向前进的气质。
维多利亚时代的巨大成功不会重演，因为英国人已经失去了创新的动力。
相反，英国现在所处的时期与罗马共和国解体前的几十年相似，当时社会关系紧张，贫富差距扩大，极端主义加剧。
此外，随着对军事行动的日益厌恶，英国已经大幅削减了武装力量，到本世纪末，英国将不再有能力或意愿保护自己免受严重入侵
在饥荒、宗教和战争等环境因素的推动下，所有文明都在轮回，这些因素改变了一个国家的气质

Shanky Shah, I am studying in UK
IMO, Britain is no more the place which attracts innovators and researchers now a days. It used to be a place where people come to do innovation and all. Now a days its all a backlash against immigrants and the conservatism is on the rise.
The conservative party has got its second term and ultra rightist like UKIP and EDL is on the rise. I believe that Britain is losing its charm of being liberal and open society. The left liberal is losing its political grip.
All of this may still not change the people who are very much liberal. But as an outcome the county's policy is becoming more and more conservative. There are other countries for example scandanavian ones and Germany are rising as better performers than Britain.
So, in my opinion UK is not having its old charm anymore.
 
在我看来，英国已不再是当今吸引创新者和研究人员的地方。它曾经是人们进行创新和其他活动的首选地。但这一天已经过去了，这一切都是源自对移民的强烈反对，保守主义正在抬头。
保守党已经获得了第二个任期，像英国独立党和法国民主党这样的极右派正在崛起。我相信英国正在失去其自由开放社会的魅力。左翼自由派正在失去政治控制。
所有这些可能仍然不会改变那些自由派的人。但结果是，各郡的政策变得越来越保守。还有其他一些国家，例如斯堪的纳维亚国家和德国，它们的表现比英国好。
所以，在我看来，英国不再有它旧有的魅力了。

West Nick, lives in History of Great Britain
Yes, take the queen's life time as a bar of mesurement, the queen's dad was emperor of India, ruler of Canada, Australia, South Africa. Britain could pick up the phone to America, Russia, China they would pick up. Now everything is gone youth unemployment is huge, all the jobs are zero hours and 12 hours. The roads are pot holled, there's no industry left no coal mines, no steel. All big company's are foreign owned. Britain stopped an oil tanker in Gibraltar and nobody backed us up were not that important. If there was another war are army couldn't fight for long. We are trying to tell China what to do in Hong Kong they just laughed, 50 years ago they wouldn't have done that. Yes we're finished, you won were broken
 
是的，以女王的一生作为衡量标准，女王的父亲是印度的皇帝，加拿大、澳大利亚、南非的统治者。英国只要打电话到美国、俄罗斯、中国，他们马上就会接的。现在这一切都过去了，年轻人失业率很高，所有的工作很难做，要么失业要么要干12小时。道路被挖空，没有工业，没有煤矿，没有钢铁。所有的大公司都是外资企业。英国在直布罗陀拦截了一艘油轮，没有人支持我们，这并不重要。如果再有一场战争，我们的军队就打不了仗了。我们试图告诉中国在香港该怎么做，他们只是笑了笑，50年前他们不会这样做。是的，我们完蛋了，破产的胜利

Nicholi Valentin, former Software engineer (1989-2021)
I suspect that we will not know about any economic decline until well after this Brexit thingy has happened. After removing itself from the EU and finding itself competing with said EU the British economy might take a turn for the worse, however as others have pointed out money isn’t everything. Culturally Britain has always pulled above its weight. However you would have to say purely in terms of land area that since WWII geographically Britain has declined (Hong Kong to China, decolonization of Africa, India …etc) and also that this decline is likely to continue, particularly, if as some have predicted, Brexit contributes to the further breakup of the UK. Scotland, N. Ireland or Wales leaving the unx? Certainly not impossible. The Falklands to Argentina? Gibraltar to Spain? Little Britain keeps on getting littler.
Bank of America analysts see the UK Government’s fiscal deficit at 6 per cent of GDP in 2021 and the current account – the amount the country as a whole borrows from abroad – at 4 per cent. This would put the UK’s “dual deficit” – a combination of the two measures – higher than the G20 average and also wider than South Africa and Turkey’s. In their most recent report they said: “We believe [sterling] is in the process of evolving into a currency that resembles the underlying reality of the British economy: small and shrinking with a growing dual deficit problem similar to more liquid [emerging market] currencies” - hmm not much of a vote of confidence really.
The question of “is Britain declining” really should be “Will Britain decline further?”. With not much in the way of its own natural resources, none of its colonies left to plunder, its financial service sector likely to be gutted by brexit, and a polity that seems to be increasingly factious and fragmented, I am inclined to predict a rather gloomy future for the Old Dart. We will see.
 
我怀疑，在这次脱欧事件发生很久之前，我们对经济衰退没有任何概念。在脱离欧盟并发现自己在与欧盟竞争后，英国的经济可能会变得更糟，但正如其他人指出的那样，金钱不是一切。从文化上讲，英国总是有着超越自己体量的能力。然而，纯粹从土地面积的角度说，自第二次世界大战以来，英国在领土大小上已经衰落不堪（香港还给中国、非洲的去殖民化、印度……等等），而且这种衰落很可能会继续，特别是如果如一些人所预测的那样，英国脱欧会导致英国的进一步分裂。苏格兰、北爱尔兰或威尔士脱离联合王国？当然不是不可能。福克兰群岛还给阿根廷？直布罗陀还给西班牙？小英帝国越来越小了。

美国银行分析师预计，2021年英国政府的财政赤字为GDP的6%，往来账户（该国作为一个整体从国外借款）为4%。这将使英国的“双重赤字”——这两项措施的结合——高于G20平均水平，也高于南非和土耳其。在他们最近的报告中，他们说：“我们认为（英镑）正在演变成一种反映英国经济下降趋势的货币：规模小且不断萎缩，双重赤字问题日益严重，这些问题类似于流动性更高的【新兴市场】货币”——嗯，这可算不上在给我们加油鼓气。

“英国衰落”这种问题其实应该是“英国会进一步衰落吗？”。由于本国自然资源匮乏，没有一个殖民地可以掠夺，其金融服务业可能因英国脱欧而被摧毁，以及一个似乎越来越争议和支离破碎的政体，我倾向于预测我们的未来相当黯淡。我们拭目以待吧。

Dean Jukes
All depends on how you look at it, break it down area by area and you’d probably just say no.
If you’re talking global power then it’s a clear yes. The empire is long gone and as a military power it’s a token of what it was. Although having said that most western countries are a shell of what they were in 1990, the US included.
Economically perhaps just, but you’re still talking about the worlds fifth largest economy.
Culturally, socially and morally it still leads the way. There is literally nothing you can’t involve yourself in if you choose. Want to sample and integrated community as diverse as they come? Pick any market in London. Want to go back to the 1950’s and all it’s splendid nostalgia? There’s villages a plenty that will help you with that.
What’s interesting about Britain though is not where it is now but where it will be in ten years time. Although most say Brexit will be detrimental there is a growing chain of thought, particularly post pandemic, that it could be a genius / fluke move that allows Britain to become extremely agile at at time when most required.
The pandemic in particular has shown how the EU and Britain will approach future challenges. Take the vaccines for example. Britain went round the world, took the best ideas, backed them and set up production plants in Britain at breakneck speed, it paid a little more for its vaccines but it secured them early. The EU however made a bureaucratic mountain out of the task, delayed for months and haggled over price. The outcome? Britain is well on its way to exiting the pandemic months before the EU. This is will bring growth and more than pay for the initial outlay on vaccines.
Now this is just an example, it may or not be repeated. It would need great political leadership at a time when globally the standard of leadership, particularly in the west, is not the standard it was decades ago. But, it shows that if Britain invests well, legislates well and gets to work, it could well be very much on the rise.
I worked in London for a few years and there’s one thing the Brits do incredibly well, trade. Maybe some skills have been lost while in the EU but it’s in their blood. Foreign investment is a fantastic barometer of the worlds perception of a nation and the money still pours into Britain.
 
这一切都取决于你如何看待它，把它块一块地分解来看，你可能会说不，英国没有在衰退。
如果你说的是全球影响力，那么这显然是肯定的。大英帝国早已不复存在，作为一个曾经的军事大国，军事力量是它过去的象征。尽管说大多数西方国家比起1990年只剩一具空壳，但美国也是如此。
经济上也许没那么亮眼，但你仍然在谈论世界第五大经济体。

在文化、社会和道德上，它仍然在引领世界潮流。如果你愿意的话，没有什么是你不能参与的。想要对社区进行抽样和整合，使其多样化吗？去伦敦的任何一个市场看看。想回到20世纪50年代，美好的旧时光吗？去乡下看看吧。有很多方法可以帮你做到你想的。

关于英国问题有趣的不是它现在如何，而是十年后会如何。尽管大多数人认为英国脱欧将是有害的，但越来越多的人（特别是在疫情大流行后）认为，这可能是一个天才/侥幸之举，让英国在最需要的时候变得极其灵活。

这场大流行尤其表明了欧盟和英国将如何应对未来的挑战。以疫苗为例。英国博采全球，选择了最好的方案，并支持它们，并以极快的速度在英国建立了生产疫苗的工厂。它为疫苗支付了略高的费用，但很早就获得了疫苗。然而，欧盟在这项任务上制造了一座官僚主义大山，拖延了疫苗施放数月时间，并在价格上讨价还价。结果如何？在流感大流行前几个月，英国正朝着脱欧的方向前进。这将为英国带来经济增长，我们将得到超过疫苗支出的回报。

这只是一个例子，它可能会被重复，也可能不会重复。在全球各地，特别是在西方领导水平已不像几十年前那样高的时候，它需要伟大的政治家的领导。但是事实表明，如果英国好好投资，好好立法，好好工作，它的情况可能得到许多改善。

我在伦敦工作了几年，有一件事英国人做得非常好，那就是贸易。也许欧盟已经丧失了这些技能，但贸易，这停留在英国人的血液中。外国投资是世界对某一个国家的看法的一个极好的晴雨表，资金仍然源源不断地涌入英国。
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