QA: 法国正在衰落吗？

Scott O'Connor, High School Senior
Upvoted by Roger Atkins, Masters Professional Ed History & Politics, Deakin University (2008)
France is indeed declining.

法国确实在衰落。

France’s economy is overregulated, as the country ranks 72nd in the index of economic freedom. This ranking is below pretty much every high-income and developed country. This fact isn’t politically related (at least in the sense of partisan leans). Left-leaning countries like Norway and right-leaning countries like the U.S. all have rankings in the top 30.

法国经济监管过度，在经济自由指数中排名72位。这一排名几乎低于所有高收入和发达国家。这一事实与政治无关（至少在党争的意义上）。挪威等左倾国家和美国等右倾国家都跻身前30名。

Labor unxs are still powerful in France, and much-needed labor reform has failed to arrive as it did in pretty much every other developed country. Along with that, people from other developed countries would find the time to start a business in France appallingly long. The permit process is inefficient and drawn out, and entrepreneurship in the country is suffering as a result.

工会在法国仍然力量强大，急需的劳工改革也没有像其他发达国家那样到来。除此之外，其他发达国家的人会发现在法国创业所需的时间长得惊人。许可证程序效率低下且耗时过长，该国的创业精神因此受到影响。

France has the highest amount of public spending as a percentage of GDP in all of Europe. Public spending is 62% of the country’s GDP, with Belgium being the only developed country to get close to that amount. The spending by the government is so much that private enterprise has been hurt. A “crowding out” effect has taken place, with public demand causing inflation that has diminished the opportunities of the private sector.

法国的公共支出占GDP的比例是全欧洲最高的。公共支出占该国GDP的62%，比利时是唯一接近这一数字的发达国家。政府的开支如此之大，以致于私营企业受到了损害。出现了“挤出”效应，公共需求导致通货膨胀，从而减少了私营企业的发展机会。

If you don’t trust the index of economic freedom to show France’s decline, we can employ the Human Development Index. Again, France ranks low, lower than countries like Spain, Slovenia, and the Czech Republic. France is still a developed country, but its place among them is towards the bottom of the heap.

如果你不相信经济自由指数所显示法国的衰落，我们可以使用人类发展指数。同样的，法国排名较低，低于西班牙、斯洛文尼亚和捷克共和国等国。法国仍然是一个发达国家，但它在这些国家中所处的位置是垫底的。

France has a reputation for being in the same economic standing as countries like the UK, Germany, and the U.S. It is safe to say that that is not the case anymore.

法国因与英国、德国和美国等国家具有相同的经济地位而享有盛誉。但现在可以肯定地说，情况已经不是这样了。

France can fix its economic problems. All the country needs to do is embrace the deregulation practices employed by other developed countries from the 1980s to the 2000s. It doesn’t need to become a tax haven. All it needs to do is follow models used by fellow European countries.

法国可以解决其经济问题。该国所需要做的就是接受其他发达国家从20世纪80年代到21世纪初所采取的放松管制的做法。它不需要成为避税天堂。它所需要做的就是效仿欧洲其他国家的模式。

France is in a tough spot, but it can work out from it. Until then, La Defense will show a false image of prosperity.
 
法国正处于一个艰难的境地，但它可以从中走出来。在此之前，拉德芳斯将展示虚假的繁荣之景。

Thierry Baudassé, lives in Lima, Peru
Originally Answered: Is France in decline?
 
Well, do you mean economically?

你是说经济上的衰落吗？

If so, just watch this video, it’s just projections about the future made by University of Denver (Pardee Center for International Futures |) but still, you will see that, if anything, France is raising (in fact, it’s because we have a good demography while the population of Germany is shrinking):

如果是这样的话，你可以看一段视频，它是关于丹佛大学未来发展的预测，但你可以看到，事实上，法国正在崛起（事实上，这是因为我们有一个良好的人口架构，而德国的人口正在减少）：


Ok China and India are going to be before us, and before USA, in the future, but it was also the case in the past, just because these 2 countries are huge:

ok，中国和印度将排在我们之前，甚至排在美国的前面，在未来如此，但在过去也是如此，因为这两个国家非常巨大：

as you can see, China and India were dominating the World economy until 1880–1890 in which they have been caught up by USA.
You can also see the GDP forecast made by OECD : Domestic product - GDP long-term forecast - OECD Data

正如你所看到的，中国和印度一直主宰着世界经济，直到1880-1890年才被美国赶上。
你也可以看到经合组织的GDP预测：国内生产总值-GDP长期预测-经合组织数据

They show that there will be a convergence in GDP between France and Germany in the next 40 years, Germany would remain above but the difference would narrow:

它们表明，在未来40年内，法国和德国的GDP将趋同，德国将保持在上述水平，但法国与之的差距将缩小：

What do you mean if it’s not economically? Culturally France is classified as n°2 in Softpower in 2018:
Soft Power 30
It was classified n°1 in 2017:
Soft Power 30
(ok well, we pass from 1st to 2nd, but it’s still good isn’t it?)

如果指的不是经济上的，你是什么意思呢？2018年，法国在文化输出上被列为软实力第二名：
30大软实力排名
2017年法国被列为第1梯队：
（好吧，我们从第一名掉到第二名，但还不错，不是吗？）

So, no, I don’t think France is declining!
PS: some comments reproached me that I don’t use the GDP per capita. The problem is first that in terms of ranking of GDP per capita, it’s even more difficult to have forecast because if you take a little country of less than 1 million inhabitants which has a sudden raise in its ressources (let’s say there is a discovery of a natural ressource, or suddenly there is a big inflow of financial ressources because it converts itself in a fiscal haven) the ranking can be very deeply modified very fast. To date, the richest countries and autonomous region in GDP per capita are Luxembourg, Switzerland, Macau, Norway, Iceland, Ireland, Qatar (List of countries by GDP (nominal) per capita - Wikipedia)… see what I mean?

所以，不，我不认为法国正在衰落！
PS：一些评论指责我没有使用人均GDP数据。问题是，首先，就人均GDP排名而言，它更难预测，因为如果你拿一个人口不到100万的小国来说，假如它的资源突然增加（比如说发现了一个自然资源，或者突然出现了大量的金融资源流入，因为它成为了一个避税天堂）那么他的排名可以马上发生巨变。到目前为止，人均GDP最富有的国家和地区是卢森堡、瑞士、澳门、挪威、冰岛、爱尔兰、卡塔尔…你明白我的意思吗？

I think that what interests us in this question of “Is France in Decline” is not if France is going to improve its GDP per capita (it will, as every other countries in the planet except few countries whose GDP will grow slowlier than their population but this is very exceptional case mostly in high fertility countries of Africa). It’s not if France will go up in the ranking of GDP per capita either. The question is if France will be more powerful, more influential at the international level. And this is better captured by the ranking in terms of GDP.

我认为，在这个“法国是否在衰退”的问题上，我们感兴趣的不是法国是否打算提高其人均GDP（它会，就像地球上所有其他国家一样，除了少数几个GDP增长速度慢于其人口增长的国家（阿三：。），但这是非常特殊的情况，主要是一些非洲的高生育率国家）。这也不是说法国的人均GDP排名是否会上升。问题是在于法国是否会更强大，在国际上的影响力是否会更大。而这一点在GDP排名中更能体现出来。

There is also the concept of 20–50 group: countries with more than 20,000 dollars of GDP per capita AND more than 50 millions inhabitants. Only 7 countries were member of this group in 2012, and France was one of them: USA, Japan, Germany, UK, France Italy and South Korea. Probably more countries have joined the group today. That’s also a way we could measure the most influential countries
 
还有一个20-50的概念：即人均GDP超过20000美元、人口超过5000万的国家。2012年只有7个国家是该组的成员，法国是其中之一：美国、日本、德国、英国、法国、意大利和韩国。今天可能有更多的国家加入这个队伍。这也是一种方式，让我们可以衡量哪些国家最具影响力（列强）

Michael Dean, lived in Armenia
Originally Answered: Is France in decline?
Of course it’s in decline, albeit not as much as Britain/England…. when people show no anger about regular mass killings aimed at them as a nation but express open hatred at their moderate duly-elected President you can be sure something is woefully wrong and their whole sense of values and priorities are skewed. French used to be famous for it’s original style and sophistication and creativity…. but nowadays young people just copy and follow like sheep whatever junk is thrown at them by moronic mainstream American “culture”. Gone are the days of Colouche, Gainsbourg, Barbara, Tati, Sartre, de Beauvoir, and Bardot….now we have the most well-known French comedians using translations of American stand-up sketches in the hope no one will notice they they have no original talent…we have pathetic wannabe rappeurs who make do with mimicking their American counterparts and inciting barbaric attitudes towards women with their “mâle dominant” posturing… we have an increasing disdain towards the complexities and subtleties of the French language in favour of the blunt pragmatism of English. Hence the pretentious tendency to write, speak, sing or even lecture in (approximate) English….. rather than promote the uniqueness of their own linguistic wealth. To be “proud” of being French is considered something shameful….. and when the French football team & national anthem are jeered and booed by three-quarters of the spectators in their own national stadium you begin to wonder where it will all end.

当然了，法国在衰落，尽管不如不列颠/英格兰衰落得那么厉害…。当人们对国内经常发生的暴乱和暴力袭击没有表现出愤怒，而是对他们温和的正式当选的总统表达公开的仇恨时（马克龙被扇耳光）  ，你可以肯定，这个国家走在了错误的道路上，他们的整个价值观和优先权都被扭曲了。法国人过去以其独特的风格、成熟和创造性而闻名…。但如今的年轻人只是照搬和追随那些被美国主流“文化”扔给他们的垃圾。勾路奇、甘斯布、芭芭拉、塔蒂、萨特、德·波伏娃的日子一去不复返了，还有芭铎……现在，我们最著名的法国喜剧演员全是美国脱口秀的翻版，希望没有人会注意到他们没有原创天赋……我们有一些可怜的说唱歌手，他们模仿美国同行，煽动对女性的野蛮态度，用他们的“女性主导地位”装腔作势……我们越来越鄙视法语的复杂性和微妙性，而支持英语的直率实用主义。因此，自命不凡地倾向于用（近似）英语写作、演讲、唱歌甚至演讲…。。而不是促进自身语言财富的独特性。为自己是法国人而“自豪”被认为是可耻的…。。当法国足球队和国歌在他们自己的国家体育场被四分之三的观众嘲笑和嘘声时，你就会开始想知道这一切将在何时结束。

Meanwhile the vermin continue to wreak havoc and destruction, sadistically killing on a regular basis…and all the average citizens do is shrug their shoulders in a collective gesture of fatalism & resignation…

与此同时，国内的害虫继续肆虐和破坏，经常进行残暴的杀戮……（委婉地指法国内的某教少数移民）而普通公民所做的只是耸耸肩，集体做出宿命论和顺从的姿态…

Wanton violence (violence gratuite) and vandalism is such a routine occurrence that moral outrage and public shame have disappeared from the landscape… The selfless courage and determination of the French Resistance against the other fascism is now relegated to history books and a few largely ignored TV documentaries. This cowardice is even more noticeable on the left than on the right of the political spectrum. Thanks to our guilt-ridden “tiers-mondistes” even such a pillar of socialist doctrine as anti-clericalism (an aversion to religion) has become equated with “racisme”!!! Karl Marx would now be boycotted from most universities and public speaking appearances for having the audacity to suggest that religion is the opium of the people.

肆无忌惮的暴力（无后果的暴力）和故意破坏行为是如此的司空见惯，以至于道德上的愤怒和公众的羞耻已经从这片土地上消失了……法国反抗法西斯主义的无私勇气和决心现在被归入历史书，只会在一些基本上被忽视的电视纪录片里被播放。这种怯懦在左翼分子身上反映得比在右翼上更为明显。多亏了我们罪恶缠身的“世界末日”论，甚至像反教士主义（对宗教的厌恶）这样的社会主义理论支柱也被等同于“种族主义”！！！卡尔·马克思大胆地提出宗教是人民的鸦片这一名言，因此他现在会受到大多数大学和公开演讲场合的抵制。

Guillaume Lamontagne, lived in France
Originally Answered: Is France a hopeless country with its dying economy?
 
Most certainly not.

确切地说，法国没有在衰落。

These questions are a bit of a bore in their lack of diversity, so I'll paste my answer to another question:
While not being as powerful as the USA or China, France is still a fairly powerful country.

这些问题缺乏多样性，有点令人厌烦，因此我将把我的答案粘贴到另一个问题上：
虽然没有美国或中国强大，但法国仍然是一个相当强大的国家。

First, a few measurable things:
-6th economic power (recently overtaken by the U.K.)
-6th military power (according to 2014 France Military Strength), it is also the 4th largest weapons exporter
-More than 66.000.000 people, with a steady 2.0 fertility rate
-One of the best healthcare systems in the world
-Ze bomb
-Excellent productivity List of countries by GDP (PPP) per hour worked
More difficult to measure, there are other points to add to France's power:
-World-reknown culture, food, history, and geography, attracting more than 80.000.000 tourists per year
-Global diplomatic presence, whith an impressive embassy network, permanent membership and veto at the UNSC, and some good ''UN street cred''
-About 274 million people speak French, and this number is rising. French is spoken at the UN, the Olympics...
Of course, France will lose standing on the international scene, as every 'old power' is bound to, but don't listen to the catastrophists: we're still punching well above our weight.

首先，有一些可以被衡量的东西：
- 第六的GDP经济力量（最近被英国取代）
- 第六大军事强国（根据2014年法国军事实力排名），也是第四大武器出口国
- 超过6600万人口，生育率稳定在2.0
- 世界上最好的医疗系统之一
- 核武器
- 国家卓越生产率列表上名列前茅，按每工作小时GDP（PPP）所列出
而其他还有一些难以衡量的东西，法国还有其他几点：
- 世界闻名的文化、食物、历史和地理，每年吸引超过8000万名游客
- 全球外交存在，拥有令人印象深刻的国际外交网络，在联合国安理会拥有常任理事国和一票否决权，以及一些良好的“联合国信誉”
- 大约2.74亿人讲法语，这个数字还在上升。在联合国、奥运会上都讲法语。。。
当然，法国将失去在国际舞台上的地位，因为每一个“旧大国”都注定会这样，但不要听灾难论者的话：我们的真实实力仍然远远超过我们的体量。

John Cordey
Interesting answer…France has roughly the same population as the UK, yet 9 times the land mass.This affords them a larger agricultural foothold, which they excel at.However if the UK workforce were to start taking 2 hour lunch breaks and work less than 32 hours and strike as often as the Frenchman, I think they too would decline.Old powers can also reform and switch tactics in the world markets, just looking at the global stage right now and it appears very unpredictable…I feel some other countries are heading downwards much quicker than France….these may indeed be end times.
 
有趣的回答……法国的人口与英国大致相同，但国土面积是英国的9倍。这为他们提供了更大的农业生产力，这是他们擅长的。然而，如果英国劳动者开始享受2小时的午休时间，每周工作不到32小时，罢工频率与法国人一样高，我认为它们也会很快衰落。旧大国也可以在世界市场上改革和改变政策，你只要看看现在的全球舞台，就会发现它看起来非常不可预测……我觉得其他一些国家的衰落速度要比法国快得多……可能这就是我们的宿命了吧。