QA：为什么印更多的钱会导致经济下滑？

Jonathan Lloyd
Printing more money (which is actually done by crediting accounts, not by “printing money”) injects dollars into the private sector which generally will cause the economy to rise, not drop. It does matter, however, how that money is spent out into the economy.
Let’s say the federal government allowed for a big tax cut to the uber-wealthy (like Trump did) or it allowed for subsidies to the uber-wealthy. Would that greatly affect the entire private economy? No. That money would sit in a few bank accounts and while it would make a few people even more wealthy than they already are it would not change things enough for the average Joe and Jane to notice.
However, if the government targeted huge subsidies to certain Green New Deal industries that then created a few million jobs and allowed us to get off our oil addiction and that then allowed us to save the nation we could then say that our spending injection was pretty well spent.
So to sum up, spending stimuluses will on average raise the economy but it is important to target them wisely to offer the biggest bang for the buck. To those who simply say that money injections are inflationary, I would point them to the resources that may or may not be brought to bear within the economy. Money that does not bring resources to bear will be inflationary (unless it sits in accounts unused). This is akin to saying that building a lot of bridges to nowhere will inflate the currency. But money spent bringing a lot of unused bulldozers back into play, or employing people no longer working, or retrofitting buildings so that they now contribute to economic largess, then we are back in business and this will not be inflationary.
 
印更多的钱(实际上是通过赊账，而不是“印钱”)向私营经济注入美元，这通常会导致经济增长，而不是下降。然而，这些钱是如何花在经济上的，这确实很重要。
假设联邦政府允许对超级富豪大幅减税(就像特朗普做的那样)，或者允许对超级富豪提供补贴。这会对整个私营经济产生很大影响吗？不会。这些钱会存在几个银行账户里，虽然会让一些人变得比现在更富有，但普通人不会发生任何的改变。
然而，如果政府针对特定的绿色新政产业提供巨额补贴，然后创造数百万个工作岗位， 让我们摆脱了对石油的依赖，从而拯救了我们的国家，然后我们就可以说，我们的支出投入花得很值。
因此，总而言之，消费刺激计划平均而言将提高经济水平，但明智地制定消费刺激计划是很重要的，这样才能产生最大的效果。对于那些简单地说资金注入会导致通货膨胀的人，我要向他们指出，这些资金可能会，也可能不会在经济中发挥作用。那些不能带来资源的资金将会引起通货膨胀(除非它闲置在账户中)。这就好比说，建很多不通向任何地方的桥会导致货币膨胀。但是，如果把钱花在让大量闲置的推土机重新投入使用，或者雇佣不再工作的人，或者改造建筑，让他们为经济做出贡献，那么我们的经济商业就会恢复正常，也不会引发通货膨胀。
 
Gregory Norton
At first, injecting money into an economy causes the economy to boom. Those receiving the new money spend it, increasing economic activity as the money spreads out. But the injected money (these days in the form of inexpensive credit) lowers interest rates, changing the planning horizon of investors. If money to build a new factory costs 10% per year (10% interest) the factory must be finished and become profitable more quickly than if the money costs 2% per year.
But at 2% per year less money is saved than at 10% per year. Rather than saving for future purchases consumers want to buy things NOW. Saving is just not worthwhile.
But long-term projects do not produce consumer goods in the short term when consumers want to buy them.
Just to give some idea: Consumers want to buy boats, RVs, wines, and houses this year but producers will not be able to expand production of boats, RVs, wines, and houses until their investment projects are completed in several years. Eventually this time mismatch builds up as existing inventories (goods in warehouses, stores, and new subdivisions) are depleted because consumers buying rather than saving. This leads to a crash, and many investment projects are halted and the money spent wasted. Boom and Bust, the business cycle that has befuddled governments since the late 18th century when it became common for banks and governments to “print” (actually create) new money rather than depend on savings. Late in the crash (bust) creating new money once again creates new economic activity and the appearance of growth, so the cycle begins again.
In the 1880s the explanation imperfectly summarized above became understood but the creation of money had become so politically popular, profitable for banks, and useful to governments that few economists (and almost no policy makers) accepted the explanation. Presidents and Congressional leaders still believe in the efficacy of stimulus checks and quantitative easing (creation of money out of thin air) with the conviction that this time it will not lead to a crash.
 
首先，向一个经济体注入资金会导致经济繁荣。那些得到钱的人把钱花掉，随着钱的扩散增加了经济活力。但注入的资金(目前是以廉价信贷的形式)降低了利率，改变了投资者的规划。如果建造新工厂的成本是每年10%(10%的利息)，那么如果成本是2％，工厂必须更快地建成并盈利。但是每年节省2%的钱比每年10%的少。消费者现在就想买东西，而不是为将来的购买储蓄。节约是不值得的。
但是，长期项目在短期内并不能生产出消费者想要购买的消费品。
举例来说，今年消费者想要购买游艇、房车、葡萄酒和房屋，但在几年的投资项目完成之前，生产商将无法扩大游艇、房车、葡萄酒和房屋的生产。最终，这种时间错配会随着现有库存(仓库、商店和新的细分市场中的商品)的消耗而加剧，因为消费者是为了购买而不是储蓄。这导致了经济崩溃，许多投资项目被叫停，资金被浪费。繁荣与萧条，这一商业周期自18世纪末以来一直困扰着各国政府，当时银行和政府普遍“印刷”(实际上是创造)新货币，而不是依赖储蓄。在危机后期，创造新的货币再次创造新的经济活动和增长的表象，所以循环又开始了。
在19世纪80年代，上述不完善的解释得到了理解，但货币创造在政治上非常受欢迎，对银行有利，对政府有用，以至于几乎没有经济学家(几乎没有政策制定者)接受这种解释。总统和国会领导人仍然相信刺激措施和量化宽松(凭空创造货币)的有效性，坚信这一次不会导致崩溃。
 
Paul Sutton
Back in the old days, pre-1933, when the US was still on the gold standard, the implications were that every dollar in circulation in the form of currency was backed by gold and you could demand gold from your local bank in lieu of currency. Obviously, a $50 bill (or $100, or $1,000, $5,000, or $10,000 bills) are much smaller and lighter than their equivalent in gold. Currency was usually used instead. The official price of gold was “fixed” though it had changed over time.
In theory, if all presented for gold at the same time could not be fulfilled if more currency existed than the necessary gold to back them; that would be inflationary (but would require a gold standard). In effect, the US went on a “silver standard” after 1933, and finally, off the international gold standard in 1971 when Nixon realized that French demands to be paid in gold for trade imbalances would, or could drain the treasury of the gold at hand.
There are a lot of ‘economic theories’ left over from the 1930s that make predictions like “printing money will cause inflation” because they rely on theories of how money actually worked under a gold standard. It doesn’t work that way when you don’t have a gold standard.
In point of fact, a robust economy is always “printing money.” Every time a manufacturer produces a product cost $xxx and then sells it for more they are, in effect, creating ‘new money’ that didn’t exist until then - but it’s all ledgers and account balances, and so on rather than actually printing currency.
Likewise when the Fed is buying treasuries on the open market the popular colloquialism is “printing money” whereas in point of fact the fed is simply exchanging one type of equity for another, “money” such as it exists in the Fed system for exchangeable Treasuries which can be sold right back into the same markets from which it was purchased (known as QT). They are not “really” “printing money” as many seem to think, and no, it won’t cause “hyperinflation” or that would have happened in 2009.
 
早在1933年之前，当美国还在实行金本位制时，其含义是流通中的每一美元都以货币的形式得到黄金的支撑，你可以向当地银行要求黄金来代替货币。显然，一张50美元的钞票(或100美元、1000美元、5000美元或10000美元的钞票)比等值的黄金要小得多，也要轻得多。通常用货币代替。黄金的官方价格是“固定的”，尽管它随时间而变化。
从理论上讲，如果现有的货币比支撑它们的必要的黄金还多，那么所有的货币在同一时间都无法兑现；这将导致通货膨胀(但需要金本位制)。实际上，美国在1933年之后实行了“银本位制”，最终在1971年放弃了国际金本位制。当时，尼克松意识到，法国要求以黄金作为贸易失衡的补偿，或将可能耗尽手头的黄金储备。
上世纪30年代遗留下来的许多“经济理论”做出了“印钞将导致通胀”的预测，因为它们依赖于金本位下货币实际运作的理论。当你没有金本位时，它就不会这样运作。
事实上，一个强劲的经济总是在“印钱”。每当一个制造商生产一件产品的成本是xxx美元，然后以更高的价格出售它，实际上，他们是在创造之前并不存在“新货币”——但这些都是账本和账户余额等等，而不是印刷货币。
同样地，当美联储在公开市场上购买国债时，通俗的说法是“印钞”，而事实上，美联储只是简单地将一种权益换成另一种权益，美联储体系中存在的可交换国债的“货币”，可以直接在购买国债的市场上出售(即QT)。他们并没有像许多人认为的那样“真的”“印钱”，而且不会导致“恶性通胀”，否则2009年就会发生这种情况。
 
Bill Terrell
Printing money amounts to an involuntary and unearned transfer of wealth. To understand why, imagine you have a printing press in your basement. And you could print up ones, fives, tens, twenties and hundreds without limit. You could acquire all the money you liked without having to provide useful goods and services for it.
You could go out and buy anything you wanted. You could go to the car dealer and buy up their inventory at whatever price they wanted. All the best goods and services could be yours.
But remember you acquired this new money without having to create any goods and services. So your gain is your neighbor’s loss. Your neighbor’s dollars are now worth less than they were before. Your neighbors will either have to pay more dollars for goods and services or go without.
This is inflation. And this is why it’s illegal for you to do it.
But the net loss to your neighbors isn’t limited to your gain … the economy loses as a whole. Because the reward for producing goods and services is diminished, people produce less or give up altogether. So printing money causes the economy to drop.
 
印钞等于财富的非自愿和非劳动转移。为了理解其中的原因，假设你的地下室里有一台印刷机。你可以打印1元，5元，10元，20元和100元，没有限制。你想要多少钱都可以，而不必提供有用的商品和服务。
你可以出去买任何你想买的东西。你可以去汽车经销商那里，以他们想要的任何价格买下他们的库存。所有最好的商品和服务都是你的。
但要记住，你获得这些新钱时，并不需要创造任何商品和服务。所以你的收获就是你邻居的损失。你邻居的美元现在比以前更不值钱了。你的邻居要么不得不为商品和服务支付更多的美元，要么就一无所有。这就是通货膨胀。这就是为什么你这么做是违法的原因。
但你邻居的净损失并不仅限于你的收益，而是整体经济的损失。
由于生产商品和服务的报酬减少了，人们生产得更少或干脆放弃了。所以印刷钞票会导致经济下滑。
 
Arthur Goldstein
It doesn’t. The increase in money comes AFTER the economy has dropped or is dropping noticeably. A good case in point are the stimulus and infrastructure packages that have been passed this past year.
The false economies of deferring maintenance and new construction of the infrastructure by “fiscally responsible” politicians have left much of the country in a shambles.
When the pandemic began shutting down the economy it was easy to see what was going to happen. And instead of letting the economy tank and fend for itself, “printing more money” as you put it, was poured into the economy to save it. This seems to have worked out quite well. Naturally, the “fiscally responsible” politicians began their hue and cry about how this free money was going to cause people making minimum wage or less to become fat and lazy.
The less likely that they are to be touched by a failing economy, the more likely they are to complain that life isn’t fair … for themselves.
 
不会导致经济下滑，货币的增加发生在经济明显下降或正在下降之后。一个很好的例子就是过去一年通过的经济刺激和基础设施建设计划。
“负责财政”的政客们推迟了基础设施的维护和新建，从而造成了虚假的经济效益，使这个国家的大部分地区陷入一片混乱。
当大流行开始使经济停止运转时，很容易就能看到将要发生的事情。像你所说的“印更多的钱”，注入经济以拯救它，这似乎效果很好，而不是让经济自生自灭。
自然，那些“负责财政”的政客们开始抗议，抱怨这些免费的钱将如何导致那些挣最低工资或更低工资的人变得更加肥胖和懒惰。
他们受经济衰退影响的可能性越小，就越有可能抱怨生活对自己不公平。
 
Ryan Howe
Printing more money doesn’t cause the economy to drop. Also, the “economy” is a nebulous term - typically people mean the value of the currency but that’s not the same thing.
We’re constantly printing money BUT … we’re also constantly destroying money as well. It’s more about the money supply and rate at which you do that. In either case they generally wouldn’t cause the economy to drop rather runaway inflation or hyperinflation happen because the money is already dued and they continue printing as the money has lost value.
 
印更多的钞票并不会导致经济下滑。此外，“经济”是一个模糊的术语——通常人们指的是货币的价值，但这不是一回事。
我们不断地印钞票，但是，我们也在不断地破坏货币。更重要的是货币供给和利率。在这两种情况下，它们通常不会导致经济下滑，而是会发生失控的通胀或恶性通胀，因为货币已经贬值，他们继续印刷，货币持续的贬值。
 
Gary Tilley
People are the ones who decide the economy. Money does not. People in their capacity to make decisions about where, on what, and when money is either spent, saved, invested, or given away control the largest amounts of money.
What causes the economy to drop? Decisions made by people with the jobs in financial positions affects the outcome of the economy.
 
人才是决定经济的关键因素，而不是钱，人们能够决定在什么地方、什么时候花钱、存钱、投资，他们控制着最大数量的金钱。
是什么导致经济下滑？从事财务工作的人做出的决定会影响经济的结果。
 
Marlin Pierce
Growth in the money supply is a stimulus to the economy, but it creates inflation. In the extreme case hyperinflation makes the currency unusable.
Why is because as there is more money in circulation people have more money and buy more with it. Because of the circulation it doesn’t matter where you inject the money, the consumer spending increases.
This drives up manufacturing costs to meet the demand. But the demand is fake.
 
货币供应的增长对经济是一种刺激，但它会造成通货膨胀。在极端情况下，恶性通货膨胀使货币无法使用。
为什么呢？因为流通中的钱越多，人们就会有更多的钱，用它们买更多的东西。因为流通，无论你把钱投到哪里，消费者的支出都会增加。
这就提高了满足需求的制造成本。但这种需求是假的。
 
Andre Gagne
Money doesn’t have any value. You could maybe set it on fire to keep warm and that’s it. Things have actual value. If you created a thousand houses you’d make a serious difference in the world and housing prices would drop. If you printed 300 million dollars you’ve created a bunch of paper that has no value. The value of things that have actual value that already exist are worth less because you’ve created more money. That’s inflation.
 
钱没有任何价值。你可以把它点燃来保暖，仅此而已。事物都有实际价值。如果你建造了上千座房子，你会对世界产生重大影响，房价会下降。如果你印了3亿美元你就创造了一堆毫无价值的纸。已经存在的具有实际价值的东西的价值会因为你创造了更多的钱而贬值。这就是通货膨胀。
 
Pratikshya Sahu
Just imagine the scene. The Govt. printed lot of money and then distributed it among all. So everyone is a millionaire. A small business man now do not need to open his shop, because he already has millions. The baker won’t bake & the farmer won’t go to field, why would they if they already have lot of money. A daily wage labourer is also resting at home. No one needs to work. The case is one-sided now. All are buyers with high purchasing power. But there is no one at the seller end. No manufacture because of lack of man power & no production of food & other supplies. This condition is a state of inflation, where demand is much more than the supply, and all the stuffs are overpriced and unavailable. This is not a healthy economy.
 
想象一下这个场景。政府印了很多钱，然后分发给所有人。所以每个人都是百万富翁。一个小商人现在不需要开店了，因为他已经有几百万了。面包师不烤面包，农民不种地，如果他们已经有很多钱，为什么还要去做呢？日薪工人也在家休息。没有人需要工作。现在情况是一边倒的。都是购买力很强的买家。但是卖家那边没有人。没有生产，因为缺少人力，没有生产食物和其他物资。这种情况是一种通货膨胀的状态，在这种状态下，需求远远超过供应，所有的东西都定价过高，无法买到，这不是一个健康的经济。
 
Michael Thompson
I will try to give you my best answer. In order for money to have value it has to be earned. Whether by an hourly wage or the cost of a service provided, economies operate by dollars earned. If $ is printed and made available for everyone to use instead of earned, the earned dollars in the system are worth less bc you don’t have to produce anything by working to get them. Someone might say “what if only a few people print $ and not make it available for everyone?” To which, I say - that is counterfeit, and very illegal.
 
我会尽量给你最好的回答。为了让钱有价值，钱必须是挣来的。无论是按小时工资计算，还是按提供服务的成本计算，经济都是按挣得的美元计算的。如果美元是印刷出来的，可供每个人使用，而不是挣来的，那么在这个体制中挣来的美元就不值钱了，因为你不需要通过工作来生产任何东西。有人可能会说:“如果只有少数人打印美元，而不是让每个人都可以使用会怎么样？”我要说的是，这是伪造的，是非常非法的。
 
Robert Arvanitis
The economy produces a certain amount of goods and services, about $20 trillion a year.
When the government “prints” money and doubles the supply, that does not increase anything real. It merely labels the exact same goods and services as now being “$40 trillion.” Nothing added. A $1.50 loaf of bread simply costs $3,00 now.
People now anticipate even more cheapening of the currency. Behavior changes. Thrifty people are punished - the dollar they saved is now slashed to just 50¢. But those wastrels who over-borrowed are rewarded for their prodigal ways.
Worst of all, the politicians who over-spent so wildly are NOT punished. Instead, they are reelected to do even greater damage to the economy.
Inflation robs the good and rewards the bad. And that’s why printing money is so wrong.
 
这个经济体每年生产一定数量的商品和服务，大约20万亿美元。
当政府“印刷”钞票时，这并没有增加任何实际的东西。它只是把完全相同的商品和服务变成现在的“40万亿美元”。没有任何增值，一条1.5美元的面包现在要卖3美元。
人们现在持有的货币将进一步贬值。行为的变化，节俭的人受到了惩罚——他们省下的1美元现在被削减到只有50美分。但是那些过度借贷的败家子却因为他们挥霍的方式而得到了回报。
最糟糕的是，疯狂超支的政客们没有受到惩罚。相反，他们再次当选会对经济造成更大的损害。
通货膨胀掠夺了好人，奖励了坏人。这就是为什么印钞是错误的原因。
 
Royanne Boyer
Such a significant question that so many seem to be ignorant about. Printed money is nothing more than fake-made government money that is spendable that they print into the trillions.
It’s little different than the fake money made by thieves. So very many countries have tried and failed: Venezuela, Argentina, etc. PLease spend some time learning about the issue.
Printed money results in inflation that cannot be stopped or maintained. Soon people can have so much money that wheelbarrows of it can’t buy a loaf of bread.
It is phony wealth that leads to massive INFLATION!
 
这是一个很重要的问题，以至于很多人似乎都不知道。印出来的钱只不过是假的政府钱，他们印了数万亿美元。
这和小偷制造的假币没什么区别。所以很多国家都尝试过，但都失败了:委内瑞拉、阿根廷等。请花点时间了解一下这个问题。
印钞导致的通货膨胀无法停止或维持生存。不久，人们就会有很多钱，手推车都买不起一条面包了。
虚假的财富导致了大规模的通货膨胀！
 
Franz Steinbauer
Printing money is like a drug. At the beginning it have a push up effect. In the long run it acts like a brake. Printing money is basically extending debt and debt becomes counterproductive at some point, which could not be exactly determined. Strogoff/Reinhart have investigated this and found out, that a debt/GDP ratio of 90 % is a critical level. Today MMT theorists think that debt is irrelevant and money can be printed at will by governments. This is a very heterodox frxwork and I personally think that in the long run it will not work.
 
印钞票就像吸毒一样。在开始的时候，它有一个向上推的效果。从长远来看，它的作用就像刹车。印钞基本上是在延长债务，而债务在某些时候会产生反作用，这一点无法确定。Strogoff/Reinhart对此进行了调查，发现债务/GDP为90%的比率是一个临界水平。今天，MMT理论家认为债务无关紧要，政府可以随意印制钞票。这是一个非常异端的框架，我个人认为，从长远来看，它不会起作用。
 
Stephen Carleton
Because printing too muchoney causes inflation which reduces the buying power of every unit of currency in circulation. Savings in particular are dued but as the value of the currency drops prices will rise so that every participants in the supply chain can maintain a satisfactory profit level
Whole all this is happening wages suffer as well since the buying power of the income is also reduced. The overall effect of rising inflation is the general reduction in transactions everywhere.
 
因为印太多的钱会导致通货膨胀，这会降低流通中每一单位货币的购买力。特别是储蓄会贬值，但随着货币价值的下降，物品价格会上升，因此供应链中的每个参与者都能保持一个令人满意的利润水平
总的来说，这一切都发生了改变，工资也受到了影响，因为收入的购买力也降低了。通胀上升的总体影响是世界各地的交易普遍减少。
 
Michael Munson
“Why does printing more money cause the economy to drop?”
It doesn’t.
Printing fresh cash goes on all the time. What affects the economy, or not, is how and why that cash is distributed, and to whom.
 
“为什么印更多的钱会导致经济下滑?”
不会导致经济下滑
印钞一直在进行。影响经济的是，现金如何分配，为什么分配，以及分配给谁。
 
Rui Duarte
It doesn't.
Money is used to command production. If you have a (partially) idle plant or land, money can activate it. That will increase production, not “cause a drop”
Printing money is only a problem (1) IF the economy is already running at capacity or (2) if you are incapable of directing the new money to the unsused capacity
 
不会影响经济
货币是用来控制生产的。如果你有(部分)闲置的工厂或土地，钱可以激活它。这将增加产量，而不是“导致产量下降”
印钞只是一个问题(1)如果经济已经满负荷运转，或者(2)如果你没有能力将新钱投入到未使用的产能上
 
Kevin Hurst
It's an economic fact that as the money supply increases, more money is chasing a limited supply of goods and services. Prices begin to inflate. As prices increase less people choose to buy goods or services at an inflated price, which eventually causes less production. Less production eventually will cause layoffs , taking those laborers out of non-discretionary spending.
 
这是一个经济事实，随着货币供应的增加，更多的货币会争逐有限的商品和服务供应。随着价格上涨，越来越少的人选择以虚高的价格购买商品或服务，这最终会导致生产减少。减产最终将导致裁员，使这些劳动者失去非可自由支配的支出。
 
Bob MacKenzie
That depends on why the money is being printed. If the money is being printed to add more liquidity to the system to accommodate a rise in production and available goods and services then that will increase the standard of living.
If the money is being printed to maintain a sagging economy due to the lack of production and employment, then the economy will continue to sag until the demand for goods and services increases.
 
这取决于印钱的原因。如果印钱是为了增加体系的流动性，以适应生产和可用商品和服务的增长，那么这将提高生活水平。
如果印钱是为了维持因缺乏生产和就业而低迷的经济，那么经济将继续低迷，直到对商品和服务的需求增加。