什么东西最有可能导致人类的灭绝?
What is the most likely to cause humanity''s extinction?译文简介
我投性爱机器人一票。
正文翻译
What is the most likely to cause humanity's extinction?
什么东西最有可能导致人类的灭绝?
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Probably the dumbest fucking thing you can imagine
很可能是你能想象得到的最蠢的方式。
Like yogurt or giving cats opposable thumbs in love death and robots.
比如《爱,死亡与机器人》里的酸奶,或是给猫能弯曲的大拇指。
A pandemic caused by dirty telephone receivers after society eliminated all the telephone sanitizer jobs
在社会消灭了所有电话清洁工的工作之后因为电话听筒太脏引起的一场传染病(译注:梗出自银河系漫游指南)
Love how the top comments are a mix of real deep one word comments, funny troll comments, and then like 2 or 3 actual possibilities.
我很喜欢赞数最多的评论里既有非常深刻的一个词的回答,也有搞笑的钓鱼评论,还有两三个真实存在的可能。
I've always thought that humans will begin modifying DNA and making cyborg-like modifications to the human body until we reach the point that the concept of human will be so diluted that we will have to call ourselves another way, leading to the extinction of humanity as we know it.
我一直觉得人类会开始修改自己的DNA,然后整出生化人那样的身体改造,直到人类的这个概念被稀释到我们需要称自己为别的东西,最终导致人类这个物种的灭绝。
From the moment i understood the weakness of my flesh it disgusted me
在我意识到我的血肉之躯的弱小的那一刻,我就开始对自己感到恶心。
I think people really underestimate what it would take to actually completely exterminate our entire species. We already bounced back from a population collapse down to under 10,000 once, we could do so again. Nuclear war, ecological collapse, incurable disease; I highly doubt that any of them could kill everyone. Even if it's just a few isolated pockets in the outback or the jungle that survive, that's still not extinction.
我觉得人们真正低估的是彻底灭绝我们整个种族的难度。我们实际上是从一次人口崩溃到少于10000人的事件中反弹回来的,我们还可以再这样做一次。核战争,环境崩溃,无法治愈的疾病;我严重怀疑这些有没有能力杀死所有人。就算是有几个互相隔绝的小团体在荒野或丛林中幸存,也不算是灭绝。
说真的,我觉得想要彻底抹除我们的存在,需要一场天文级别的灾害(小行星/彗星撞击,伽马射线暴等),并且这种事件还得发生在我们在地球以外有足够多的人口之前。
编辑:稍微澄清一下,我并不是“不会有事”的意思。假如我们用核战争把自己炸回石器时代,或者把这颗星球的气候影响到农业无法实现,那么人类文明当然永远都不能恢复。但问题是彻底的,完全的物种灭绝,那我觉得还得再前进一大步。
What’s the event that brought us down to 10,000 if I may ask?
我想问一问是什么事件导致了我们的人口曾经减少到10000人的水平?
I believe it was a supervolcano eruption which initiated a mini ice age, correct me if I'm wrong
我记得是一次超级火山喷发,导致了一次迷你冰期,我说错了的话请更正我。
I’m pretty sure you’re right. A volcano in Indonesia about 70,000 years ago.
我很确定你说的没错。是印尼的一次火山喷发,发生在约七万年前。
Does that mean our genetic pool is fucked ?
这意味着我们的基因池没救了吗?
It may have been. I don't know about that. However today it isn't due to the large amount of mutations that occured in 70,000 years.
或许曾经是这样。我不好说。但今天不是了,因为在这七万年间我们经历了非常多的突变。
Yes and no.
是,也不是。
人类这个物种基因多样性的宽度和深度其实……没那么大。在非洲是最多样的,人类曾经在那里生活过几十万年。每当一个种群迁徙出去,这个种群中的基因多样性只有随机的一部分能够保留下来。新的种群的基因多样性会变小,并且从这个种群再次迁徙出去的种群,多样性还会变得更小(除非整个种群都一起迁徙)。
让我试着阐述一下。
假如拉丁字母表就代表某个物种的全部基因。
ABCDEDGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ.
Now a bottleneck event occurs. This can be a volcano, a really deadly germ, or space lasers targeting everyone blonde, doesn’t matter what kind of event as long as the population affected isn’t totally random. (Yes, a volcano isn’t random, it affects most the people settling on its slope for instance.) Suddenly the whole bottom row of the keyboard in our genetic diversity gets wiped out.
现在瓶颈事件发生了。可能是火山喷发,非常致命的细菌,或者来自太空的激光把所有金发的人都给biu了,别管是什么,只要受到这个事件影响的群体并不是完全随机的(没错,比如火山喷发的影响不是随机的,它影响的最主要的是居住在火山山脚的那些人)。于是突然间我们基因多样性的键盘的最下面那一排键就被抹掉了。
ADEFGHIJKLOPQESTUW.
Can you still spell and read without these letters? Certainly. But some word will become difficult, some impossible.
你还能用这些字母继续拼写吗?当然可以。但一些单词会变得更困难,另一些则根本不可能拼写。
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接下来随着时间的推移,新的字母被加了进去,这些字母是从之前留下的字母里衍生出来的,比如ßæûłøïÿ什么的。这会替代之前的那些消失的字母,并且随着时间推移慢慢地恢复多样性,但这不意味着原本的那些字母没有消失。
有这么个名词,叫最小可生存种群,计算的是种群需要有多大才能避免危险的效应被遗传到几代以后。有很多要素需要考虑(r/K选择理论,随机性等等)。但简单来说,你需要几百人或几千人来达到这个目标。我记得能代表人类种族基因多样性的种群最小数量是20000名个体,但老鼠的话是100000到1000000的级别。我忘了是在哪里读到的了。
我想说的是,不。我们的基因池也没那么糟糕。只不过比我们这个跨度的K选择物种理应的深度要浅一些。
This is a top tier post.
这是个顶级的回帖。
你是学什么的?
I’m not the poster but this is my degree field! Anthropology! Specifically evolutionary anthropology. It’s the best.
我不是原帖主,但这是我学位的领域!人类学!准确地说是进化人类学。是最棒的!
Does that mean that many genetric traits that humans of the past had are missing today?
这意味着人类曾经拥有过的很多基因性状都消失了吗?
70,000 years ago predates pretty much all history so any skeletal remains wouldn't reveal things like currently unseen eye colors or digestive differences. I would like to assume we had like cartilage fins for faster swimming or like slit pupils or some crazy shit that got lost during the calamity, that would be awesome. Maybe if the afterlife is real we'll meet some ancient human souls
七万年前已经比基本所有历史都要久远了,所以残留的化石也没办法揭示比如我们没见过的瞳孔颜色,或者消化的不同之类的。我猜我们可能曾经拥有过让自己游得更快的软骨鱼鳍,或者分裂的瞳孔之类疯狂的东西,这些都因为灾难而消失了,那还挺酷的。或许假如真的有来生,我们就能遇见一些远古人类的灵魂了。
That's an interesting thought. What if stuff from folklore were just ancient memories of different tribes that didn't make it. Maybe one tribe had the trait for pointed ears, and another was stout and burly, and that's where elves and dwarves came from.
这是个很有趣的想法。要是那些神话传说里的东西都只是对其他没能幸存下来的部落的古老记忆就有意思了。或许有个部落的耳朵特别尖,另一个部落矮壮魁梧,精灵和矮人就是这么来的。
We have very low genetic diversity compared to other mammals because of this bottleneck. Basically, we are all a little inbred. Plagues hit us a little harder than they would - very low chances of an immune or highly resistant population
与其他的哺乳动物相比,我们的基因多样性特别小,这就是这个瓶颈事件导致的。简单地说,我们都有一点近亲繁殖。瘟疫对我们造成的影响也会更强一些——出现免疫或具有高度抵抗力的种群的概率非常低。
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My fav is gamma ray burst. If one happens close enough to hit us, we probably wouldn't even detect it. That means that at any moment, we can be flash fried into extinction with very likely no warning.
我最喜欢的是伽马射线暴。假如有一个发生得离我们足够近,那么我们甚至都来不及发现。这意味着在任何时刻,我们都可能突然被瞬间炸熟全部灭绝,没有任何警告。
每次人生中不好的事情把我压垮的时候,我都会想到这个。
编辑:显然我错了,伽马射线暴不会立刻把我们烤熟。它会把我们对太阳辐射的保护消灭掉,然后慢慢杀死我们所有人。但你们也不至于非得那么傲慢。人总是会犯错,并且也会从中学习。
有很多宇宙学尺度的终结一切生命的事件,它们都可能发生,并且我们什么都做不了,即便我们提前发现的话。有人可能觉得困惑这种事情为什么会让我舒心。我的回答是,这让我意识到事情并不总是像我们以为的那样重要。总有一天,这个星球都会变成一块没有生命的岩石。我们正在一天天地走向自己的末日,所以深呼吸一口,享受我们还能活着的这个事实吧。
I am not a physicist, but a gamma ray that would be completely fatal to earth should be (less than around) 8,000 light years away. The Milky Way is roughly 100,000 light years across and there are no obxts close enough to earth to likely do that. And if it did, we'd likely see the event happen, assuming the immediate gamma ray wasn't facing earth. There are about 40,000 star-like obxts within 10k light years of the sun.
我不是个物理学家,但我知道对地球来说绝对致命的伽马射线暴应当发生在(距离地球至多)8000光年的位置。银河系的宽度差不多是十万光年,地球周围不存在有可能发生这种事件的物体。并且就算发生了,我们也可能见证这个事件发生,假设伽马射线没有直接射向地球。在太阳周围一万光年的范围内,共有约四万个类似于恒星的物体。
As noted, there are no obxts close by (neutron stars etc., supernovae..) that could really cook us, and even then, we'd need to be in the path of the beam for it to be catastrophic. So the odds are good that even if there was a candidate obxt nearby, it wouldn't be pointing in our direction.
正如上文提到的,不存在足够近的能够真的把我们烤熟的物体(中子星或超新星之类的),并且就算有,我们也需要径直位于射线流的方向上,才能引发灾难。所以就算有候选星体在我们附近,它没有指着我们的方向的概率也很高。
然而即便从非常可观的距离,比如3000光年那么远的距离,我们还是有可能中招。但假如我记得没错的话,在这个距离内也没有星体能够发生伽马射线暴。
然而,伽马射线暴通过直接烤熟和辐射杀死生命的可能性并不高。更大的可能是,远达10000光年的一次伽马射线暴都可能严重损坏臭氧层。一开始,大气层会很大程度上让我们免受直接的辐射暴露。问题在于伽马射线会将大气层离子化,生成高海拔的二氧化氮,抹除臭氧层。
这会导致世界各地生态环境的崩溃,因为来自太阳的紫外线会摧毁植物和其他食物链底层的生物。地表生成的臭氧没有用。
Astronomical phenomenon like a rogue planet, or an asteroid.
天文现象,比如星际行星或是小行星。
I'm apparently fuzzy on the definition of a rogue planet. I believed they were simply planets that formed outside of or somehow escaped a star system. Simply a planet without a star. How might that bring about humanities extinction? Through a collision?
我对星际行星的定义一直都很疑惑。我相信它们是在恒星之外形成的,或者不知怎么回事脱离了星系的引力。一个没有恒星的星星。这样的行星会如何导致人类的灭绝呢?碰撞吗?
If one came close enough to distrupt our orbit around the sun and kick us out of the "goldilocks" zone, we could die by heat or cold.
假如有个行星靠得足够近,它就会干扰我们环绕太阳的轨道,并且把我们踢出宜居区,我们会热死或冻死。
A bad-tempered, bureaucratic alien species of space engineers deciding to construct a hyperspace bypass through our solar system.
一个坏脾气的,官僚主义的外星太空工程师种族决定造一条穿过我们太阳系的超空间航道。(译注:还是银河系漫游指南的梗)
I mean, the plans have been on display in Alpha Centauri for quite some time.
不是我说,施工计划早就在半人马阿尔法公告了好久了。
Climate change, pandemics, etc will probably just make a dent of a smaller or bigger size. For an extinction level event, there's fewer options:
气候变化,疫情等等只会让我们的人口数量或多或少的减少。如果是灭绝级别的事件的话,选项要少很多。
小行星撞击。
全球热核战争。
伽马射线暴。
……之类的东西。
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Thank you. We’ve recovered from times when we were only a few thousands, we survived an Ice Age, at this point it’s absurd to think that anything less than a planet-level cataclysm can kill all 7 billion humans with no way to repopulate.
谢谢你。我们曾经从只有几千人口的程度恢复过来,我们幸存过冰河时代,到这个程度的话
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One of the scariest stories to me was a lix here on Reddit, to a study claiming that we can never restore civilization in a case like that. By removing all the easily accessible fossil fuel, we will never be able to bring civilization back up to a level where we can start using renewable energy, where we can an have plentiful metal and concrete, where we can build large buildings and travel long distances. There’s just nothing else that is a good enough energy source
对我来说最吓人的一个故事是以前在reddit看过的一个链接,一项研究声称遇到这种情况的话我们永远都不可能再重建文明。只要移除所有能简单开采的化石燃料,我们就永远不可能再把文明提升到能够使用可再生能源的高度,能够拥有大量金属和混凝土的高度,能够建造高大的建筑、长距离旅行的高度。因为再也没有足够优秀的能源了。
How about solar flares? What if there comes a solar flare that fries all electronics? Suddenly, we'd have no transportation, no food because it relies on transportation, no running water, no pacemakers, etc.?
太阳耀斑呢?要是发生了一个把所有电子器件都烧坏了的太阳耀斑会发生什么?我们会突然之间失去运输,失去食物,因为食物依靠运输,失去自来水,失去起搏器等等?
We won't go extinct, it will just collapse society
我们不会灭绝,那只会让社会崩塌。
If tech suddenly went awry there would still be plenty of people able to live in local farms. It would destroy our civilization but people would survive. The only thing that would truly send humans extinct is the earth becoming entirely uninhabitable for us and the food we eat, like an asteroid boiling our oceans or something like that.
就算科技突然不能用了,仍然会有很多人可以在当地的农场生活。这会毁灭我们的文明,但人们还能活下来。真正能让人类灭绝的是地球完全不适合我们居住,也不适合我们吃的食物生长,比如小行星蒸发掉我们的海洋之类的。
The danger of solar flares to society is greatly over exaggerated. Nowadays, most power grids are protected from EMPs and even electronics. GPS might become wonky and aircraft might get affected but is on the ground no.
太阳耀斑对社会的危害被严重夸大了。现在基本所有电网都能防电磁冲击,甚至一些电子器件也可以。GPS可能不准,飞机可能受到影响,但地面上不会有事的。
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Polar ice cap melts, releases bacteria from 5 million years ago and it’s pissed.
极地冰盖融化,释放出五百万年前的细菌,细菌很生气。
5-million-year old bacteria vs modern antibiotics. Place your bets
五百万年历史的细菌VS当代抗生素。买定离手!
I mean… obviously modern antibiotics. New bacteria have had decades to evolve to resist the effects, and they’re still crushed 99% of the time. 5 million year old bacteria would have no reason to evolve any resistance.
我觉得……显然是当代的抗生素吧。现在的新细菌已经用几十年的时间来进化出抵抗这些效应的能力,即便如此99%的情况下它们仍然会被杀死。五百万年前的细菌根本没有存活下来的理由。
这会像是罗马军团攻击现代军事哨站一样。他们会在几英里开外就被无人机杀死,被灭得一干二净,幸存者会说是天神朱庇特从天上把他们劈死了。
This should be a writing prompt, but instead, send a modern military unit into the past and see how they would handle themselves against the Roman legion.
这应该搞成一个写作脑洞,但可以改成一个现代军事单位被送到了过去,看看他们如何对抗罗马军团。
Plague Inc. connoisseur: my bets are on Madagascar and Iceland making it.
瘟疫公司玩家:我赌马达加斯加和冰岛能活下来。
Time. Nothing lasts forever.
时间。没有什么是永久的。
Humanity
人性
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This reminds me of the time last year May 2020. When due to lockdown, a lot of pollution went away, and then everyone on the internet declared: "We, humans are the real virus"
这让我想起去年,2020年五月的时候,因为封城很多污染都消失了,于是网上的所有人都开始说,“我们,人类才是真正的病毒。”
To be more specific, our combined stupidity.
更细致一点地说,我们加起来的愚蠢。
the problem with intelligence is it averages out
智慧的问题在于它会被平均掉。
愚蠢的问题在于它会累加到一块儿。
Hubris
傲慢。
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Hubris, ignorance, and apathy. We will die by these things
傲慢,无知和冷漠。我们会死于这些的。
Sex Robots! Hear me out:
性爱机器人!听我书:
科技在飞速进步。所以这些制造性爱机器人的聪明伶俐的阿宅们会设计出完美的爱人。不止是普通的漂亮女人,而是满分10分的完美女人。它可以连接到科技公司的算法里,统计出每个人看片儿的习惯。人类一旦开始使用这些性爱机器人,就不会再生孩子了。
并且不止直男可以用,女人和LGBT群体也可以用。互联网会跟踪每个人的偏好和反应,微调制造完美爱人的技艺。性爱机器人比起离婚便宜多了,不会让你花费一年又一年的时间。
但这些性爱机器人会安装那种学习让自己的主人更开心,变成完美爱人的算法。没有争执,没有吵架,没有离婚,他们的存在就是为了让你开心!
最终世界上幸存的最后两个人类将会是一个无家可归的老头和一个无家可归的老太太,他们到处寻找能维修自己性爱机器人的零部件,人类就这样归于尘土了……
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There is, however, a major flaw in that statement, while you considered the inevitable transcendence of the ai, you completely ignored the progress in other areas, including repopulation techniques and artificial, machine assisted birth. And even excluding THAT, do you really think there wouldn’t be a single person wanting to be a parent?
然而,你的论证有一个非常大的缺陷。你虽然考虑到了AI科技必然来临的技术飞跃,但你却完全忽略了其他领域的发展,例如人口繁殖技术,人工、机械辅助的生育。就算不考虑这个,难道你真的觉得世界上不会有任何一个人不想当父母吗?
Over consumption of resources in general.
总地来说,过度消费资源。
I don’t think this would lead to extinction. I think there would be a massive blow to our population but civilizations existed well before technology. As long as there is animals, plants, and water, I think humanity will continue.
我不觉得这会导致灭绝。我觉得可能会给我们的人口总量带来沉重的打击,但人类文明早在科技之前就存在了。只要还有动物,植物和水,我觉得人类就能继续存在下去。