网友：越南会成为下一个中国吗？
Is Vietnam the next China economy?
译文简介
面对越南强劲的发展势头，网友提问，越南会不会成为下一个中国？
正文翻译
面对越南强劲的发展势头，网友提问，越南会不会成为下一个中国？
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Similarities:
· Communist, socialist states which have opened up to free markets ever since reforms
· Very similar political system (both have a Communist party)
· Large populations
· Rapid GDP growth
· Etc.
Differences:
· China’s population is around 15 times bigger than Vietnam’s
· Etc.
中国和越南有很多相似之处，但同时也有很大的不同，说越南经济是下一个中国有一定的道理，但我不这样认为
相似之处
都是南产主义和社会主义国家，在改革之后向自由市场开放
政治制度很相似
GDP增长迅速
不同之处
中国人口是越南的15倍
等等
I definitely think Vietnam can grow tremendously, but I doubt we will be able to have an economy as big as China’s, however I do believe Vietnam will become possibly a mini-China. In other words, whilst not being as big as China in economic terms, Vietnam could definitely be as successful and prosperous as China considering the size of Vietnam.
你或许已经注意到我只列举了一项差异之处，没错，我是有意的。为什么越南无法成为下一个中国的主要因素是因为越南没有中国那么大的人口潜力。虽然越南拥有很多的人口，但考虑到越南的土地规模，越南的劳动力无法像中国那样的增长。事实上，人们经常认为，中国之所以在经济上如此成功的主要原因，纯粹是因为它及其庞大的十几亿人口。我认为越南经济肯定可以获得巨大的发展，但我对越南经济规模能否与中国相匹敌表示怀疑，我认为越南会成为迷你版的中国。换句话说，尽管经济规模无法和中国相比，但考虑到越南的规模，肯定可以像中国一样繁荣成功。
HM~~ I’m not so sure if I should agree with you on the part of huge population. I actually think that the reason of China’s growth lies to their long-term investment on raising literacy rate starting from the 50s and 60s to the recent decades focus on R & D. Huge population is actually a tremendous burden to China government, or so that was what I was told during high school, be it on job creation, social security and stability, or education.
我对你关于中国的成功是依靠庞大人口的观点不太赞同。我认为中国经济发展的原因在于从50年代到60年代识字率的提高再到最近几十年对研发的投入。庞大的人口对于中国来说是一个很多的负担，表现在增加就业，提供社会保障和稳定，或提供教育
The population difference is beside the point. Saying Vietnam is the “next China” is like saying China is the “next South Korea”. Vietnam can definitely catch up with its northern neighbors on a per capita level and that is already very good.
人口差异是次要的。说越南是下一个中国就像是说中国是下一个韩国一样。越南在人均方面肯定可以追上北方邻国，如果能够做到这一点就很不错了
“the major reason to why China has been so economically successful”
India cried
“中国经济如此成功的主要原因”
印度要哭
We certainly can’t compare India with China.
India is far far behind China now.
Form India’s GDP growth rate, we don’t see it gets any closer to China. Yes, India has a lower growth.
我们不能拿中国和印度比
印度现在远远落后中国
从印度的GDP增长率来看，我们看不到印度接近中国的迹象。没错，印度的增长率比中国低
Yep, India told us that people without job cannot create money, just cost resource without any payback.
是的，印度告诉我们没有工作的人是无法创造财富的，只会浪费资源没有任何回报
Just as Karen says, huge population without education is useless. Take India for example. When the literacy is too low, the population becomes burden.
正如Karen所说，没有接受过教育的庞大人口是没有用处的。印度就是这样一个例子。当识字率很低的时候，人口就是负担。
I agree with you, however, Vietnam’s literacy rate is quite high, 98.5% roughly. Roughly 96.4% in China and so the difference isn’t at all significant in comparison.
我同意你的看法，但是越南的识字率相当高，有大约98.5%，中国是大约96.4%，所以两国的差距并不大
Vietnam as a member of many major free trade areas in the world, with large area, diverse population, cheap labor and in the center of the three big Asian countries (China, India, Indonesia), offers major advantages.
The economy of Vietnam is the 47th largest economy in the world measured by GDP (norminal) and 35th largest in the world measured by GDP(PPP). According to a forecast by PricewaterhouseCoopers, Vietnam may be the fastest-growing of the world''s economies, with a potential annual GDP growth rate of about 5.1%, which would make its economy the 19th largest in the world by 2050.
越南作为世界上许多主要自由贸易区的成员，拥有大面积、多样化的人口、廉价的劳动力，位于亚洲三大国家（中国、印度、印度尼西亚）的中心，具有重大优势。
按名义GDP算越南是世界第47大经济体，按购买力平价来算是世界第35大经济体。根据普华永道的预测，越南可能是世界上增长最快的经济体，潜在的年gdp增长率约为5.1%，这将使其经济在2050年成为世界上第19大经济体。
British Empire used to be the number one in the world .
Soviet unx used to be the 2nd largest economy in the word.
China had been helpless, tormented, abused, hammered down during their modern history.
Japan was a backward country before Meiji’s innovation.
Can Vietnam become the next China or USA? Can Vietnam become a superpower?
I dont know for sure. Who knows what will happen in the future.
100 years , 200 years ,…1000 years, 100 000 years. Age after age
Do you dare to assert that Vietnam can’t become a superpower in the remote future?
I think that 200 years ago not too many people would imagine that Japan can become an advanced country .
对今天拥有的东西心怀感激并不意味着我们要永远拥有它
大英帝国过去是世界最强大的国家
苏联曾是世界第二大经济体
中国在近代史上也曾茫然无助，饱受折磨凌虐和打击。
日本在明治维新之前是一个落后的国家
越南可以成为下一个中国或美国吗？越南可以成为超级大国吗？我不知道。谁又能知道未来会发生什么呢。
100年，200年，，，，1000年，100000年，世世代代
你敢说越南在遥远的未来肯定不会成为超级大国吗？
我想200年前没有多少人会认为日本可以成为一个先进国家把。
And no one knew few hundreds years ago that Vietnam would survive as an independent country. and expanding after being attacked by China (many times), Mongols, Japan, France and the US. No one knew that the Roman empire, the Hapsburg, the Mongols empire …are no more for a long time.
没有人知道几百年前越南可以作为一个独立国家存在下去，并且在经过中国，蒙古，日本，法国和美国的攻击还能实现扩张。没有人会想到罗马帝国，哈布斯堡，蒙古帝国那么早就退出了历史的长河
I''ve been to China a few times. When I bought some clothes it said “made in Vietnam’. Some global people said the working conditions and quality is better than China.
我去过中国几次，买过一些衣服，上面写着越南制造。一些国际人士说越南的工作环境和质量要比中国好
Vietnam is still about 10–20 yrs after China, pretty like China in 2000s now.
越南还落后中国10到20年，和中国2000年代差不多
Vietnam will become middle sized power in the Asia Pacific region rivaling Indonesia and Malaysia and even South Korea.
越南可以成为亚太地区的中等强国，可以和印尼，马来西亚，甚至韩国进行竞争
It’s cant be, 10 years for me is too fast. here’s my reasons
Vietnam spend 10 years war with Cambodia and much destroy Vietnam economic it-self.
Vietnam population is much smaller than China
Vietnam land are much smaller too. China landscape surround by big economics countries include Russia,India,Korea and Vietnam it-self.
不可能，10年太快了，原因如下
越南和柬埔寨打了10年的战争，越南的经济受到了很大的伤害
越南的人口规模比中国小得多
越南的土地比中国少。中国周边都是经济大国，像俄罗斯，印度，韩国，还有越南
No way if Vietnam keeps on with the current political structure (that has last for the past decades).
如果越南还是在现在的政治结构之下就不可能成为下一个中国
根据越南的政策，越南的经济发展依赖于中国，现在越南90%的制造业都是依赖中国原材料的供应才能进行生产。不幸的是，由于中国正面临资源短缺，中国将无法继续向越南提供原材料。同时，由于土地和水资源的减少（主要是农业和水产养殖），越南的资源正在逐渐减少。越南制造和出口的前景在可预见的未来会像人们所能想象的那样低迷。
Even if the trade-war between USA and China gets worsen and both USA and China will lose quite significantly, Vietnam will still depend on China''s supplying sources, and most likely with the Chinese Communist Party C’s dictates on the VCP, Vietnam will be one of the many small platforms for the Chinese to sell its products to the world.
Of course, if the current political structure in Vietnam is quickly changed, then Vietnam may have a chance to grow. But that is another issue.
越南在土地掠夺和腐败方面越来越肆无忌惮，其中一个迹象是国家债务的飙升。
即便中美贸易战变得更加激烈，中美两国都因此遭到了重大的损失，越南依然还是要依赖中国的供应链，并且中国很有可能会XX越南，越南将成为中国向世界销售产品的一个小平台
当然，如果越南能快速的改变政治结构，那么越南或许将有机会得到发展。但这又会产生另一个问题