历史：蒙古从何时开始，不再是明朝的威胁？

Harvey King, born in Taiwan, grew up in US, family rooted in mainland China for centuries.
Thanks for A2A.
The short answer is 1570 AD!
To elaborate this answer, I have to add some context for those who are not familiar with the background.
First of all, the Mongols at the time didn’t have a strong “national” identity. As soon as the Ming Dynasty had overthrown the Yuan (the Mongol Dynasty), certain Mongolian tribes surrendered to Ming. In fact, during the early days of Ming, the most effective cavalry unit was a Mongolian one.
 
谢邀。
简单来说，就是在公元1570年，蒙古才真正不再是明朝的威胁!
在详细回答之前，我必须为那些不熟悉历史背景的人做一点说明。
首先，古代的蒙古人没有强烈的“民族”认同观念。
当明朝推翻元朝(蒙古王朝)的统治后，一些蒙古部落就向明朝投降了。
事实上，在明朝早期，最有战斗力的骑兵部队就是蒙古骑兵。
 
Secondly, China during Ming’s reign had this isolationist tendency and as a whole a bias toward closing the market off for outsiders. Because China was one of the largest market at the time, neighboring states were eager to trade with China. As was the norm, neighboring states traded with Ming via Ming’s “tribute” system.. Those neighboring states tribute payments to Ming are essentially trade caravans. Depend upon the Ming Court’s whim, neighbor states were allowed anywhere from paying 4 tributes per year (i.e. one trade caravan per quarter) to as little as paying tribute (i.e. one trade caravan) once every two years.
 
其次，明朝时期的明朝有种孤立主义倾向，总体上倾向于对外封闭国内市场。
当时明朝是世界上最大的市场之一，周边国家都渴望与明朝进行贸易。按照惯例，邻国需要通过向明朝“进贡”，来与明朝进行贸易。
这些邻国与明朝的贸易规模与次数都不尽相同，需要根据明朝朝廷的心情来定。
有些邻国可以每年进贡（贸易）4次(即每季度派一个商队前往明朝)，有些则是每两年进贡（贸易）一次(即每两年派一个商队)
除此以外，每批进入明朝的商队规模都受到了严格控制，一般不能多于50人，马匹不能超过150匹)
 
(and yes, size of caravan is tightly controlled, e.g. 50 people or less, no more than 150 horses, as example)
Here is the strange part. As a whole, the Ming’s court wanted to make sure those who paid tribute to Ming gained financially. Thus, Ming’s court usually went out of its way to make sure there was a trade deficit toward those who were willing to call Ming the center of the universe. During the time which the Ming was poor, the Ming was forced to cut the number of tributes allowed from the foreign states simply because Ming couldn’t afford it!
Under such a rigid system which completely disregarded supply and demand, smuggling was rampant. Most importantly, while China was proud being “self sufficient,” nomadic tribes’ demand for consumer goods (clothes, pots and pans, porcelain vessels, medicines, etc) which hopelessly depended on China’s supply was not being met. Cross border raids under such circumstances looked pretty good as an alternative option.
 
但奇怪的是。明朝朝廷似乎想要确保那些向明朝进贡的人，在经济上得到多一些回报。
因此，明朝朝廷通常会不遗余力地对那些愿意称明朝为天朝上国的国家，给予贸易上的优厚馈赠。
而当明朝的财政逐渐捉襟见肘的时候，明朝就不得不削减外国进贡者的数量，因为明朝实在是负担不起了!

这种完全无视供求关系的僵化体制，导致明朝内部走私活动猖獗。
最重要的是，当明朝为“自给自足”而自豪时，游牧部落对生活消费品(衣服、锅碗瓢盆、瓷器、药品等)的需求却没有得到满足，他们在这些生活必需品上强烈依赖明朝的供应。
因此在明朝限制贸易的情况下，入境劫掠似乎是一个不错的选择。
 
This was essentially the fundamental economic problem between Ming China and nomadic tribes such as Mongols and later Manchus.
With this background information out of the way, I’ll modify your question a bit: When and Why Mongols stop being a threat to the Ming Dynasty of China?
When: 1570 AD!
To answer this question “why,” you need to thank this guy:
His name was Gao Gong. He was a Senior Grand Secretary (首輔) of Ming’s court.
 
这一经济问题，基本上就是明朝与蒙古人，以及后来的满族部落爆发战争的根源。
有了这些历史背景信息，我认为你的问题应该这样问更好：蒙古人什么时候以及为什么不再对明朝明朝构成威胁？
第一个问题的答案是：公元1570年！正是这一年，蒙古人不再对明朝构成威胁
而要回答第二个问题“为什么”，你需要感谢下面这位老兄：
他的名字叫高拱。他是明朝宫廷的高级国务秘书(首輔)。

 

Gao Gong was an abled, uncorrupted Senior Grand Secretary with really bad temper and didn’t get along with just about everyone. But he was somewhat an unfairly obscure figure (relative to what he has accomplished) for two reasons: 1. he was in office for a very short time (just because the reign of the Emperor he served, Emperor Mu, was short… due to his vast interest in sex) AND that Gao Gong’s successor, Zhang JuZheng, was a giant in Ming’s history which overshadowed everyone around that time.
While Gao Gong was the Senior Grand Secretary, a strange family feud happened: Altan Khan’s grandson led his tribe surrendered to Ming at DaTong (see map below) because…. the girl who intended to marry Altan Khan’s grandson was pretty, very pretty… so pretty that Altan Khan decided to take her as his own concubine instead. Altan Khan’s grandson was so pissed that he decided to surrender to Ming because of it.
 
Altan Khan was alarmed. Ming and Mongols had been killing each other at genocidal scale for almost 200 years. Altan Khan obviously cared about his grandson enough, sent an army to DaTong and asking Ming to return his grandson.
 
高拱是一个有能的，廉洁的首辅，脾气很坏，几乎和每个人都处不来。
他在某种程度上是一个不太出名的历史人物(相对于他所取得的成就而言)，原因有两个:
1，他在位的时间很短(只是因为他所服务的皇帝——隆庆皇帝——在位的时间很短……这位皇帝因为放纵而被掏空了身体)，

2，高拱的继任者张居正是明朝历史上的一个巨人，他的风头盖过了同时代的所有人。
当高拱担任首辅时，蒙古土默特部落的家族发生了一场争斗:
蒙古鞑靼部落的首领是俺达汗，他一位孙子的妻子非常漂亮，漂亮到俺达汗决定娶孙媳妇为妾，俺达汗的孙子非常生气，因此他决定向明朝投降，并带领他的部落来到明朝军事重镇大同
 
At the time, one of Ming’s biggest concern was that Altan Khan, while being a ferocious fighting tribe, wasn’t all that civilized (twenty years earlier,Altan Khan was raiding the suburbs of Beijing unopposed… but it wasn’t a fatal threat for Chinese because Altan Khan doesn’t know how to lay a siege to a fortified city, as an example). But there was a Chinese traitor, Zhao Quan, who was teaching some of Chinese practices to bring organization and discipline to Altan Khan’s tribe. Ming was afraid that if these practices gain foothold in Altan Khan’s tribe, Altan Khan will no longer be just another nomadic tribe that raids borders once in a while, but a full blown nomadic nation similar to what Song was facing.
The general who is responsible for DaTong, Wang ChongGu, saw Altan Khan’s grandson as an “prisoner exchange” opportunity, thus immediately send his recommendation to Ming’s court, proposing to exchange Altan Khan’s grandson for Zhao Quan thus stop the Mongol’s organization/political reform completely.
 
当时明朝最担心的就是俺达汗所率领的凶猛的鞑靼部落(20年前，俺达汗突袭明朝北京，沿着北京郊区烧杀抢掠，没有遇到明朝军队的抵抗。）但俺达汗并不是致命的威胁，因为俺达汗不知道如何攻占一座防守森严的城市。但是有一位明朝叛徒，名叫赵全，他利用在明朝学到的政治经验，帮助俺达汗在鞑靼部落建立组织和纪律。
明朝担心，如果赵全的建议在鞑靼部落全面推行，鞑靼部落将不再只是另一个偶尔袭击边境的游牧部落，而是成为一个与辽朝，金朝类似的游牧帝国。
负责镇守大同的明朝将军将俺达汗的孙子视为一次“交换战俘”的机会，于是立即向明朝朝廷提出用俺达汗的孙子交换赵全的建议，从而彻底终止蒙古部落的政治改革。
 
When the recommendation reached Gao Gong, he had another idea. He saw through the reason why Altan Khan raided Ming’s border constantly was mostly because Mongols were desperately need consumer products (instead of trying to restore Mongol Dynasty in Chinese heartland). Cast aside almost 200 years of ethnic hatre, he and a few other General Secretaries (mostly just Zhang JuZheng) proposed something even bolder: establish several regulated MARKETS so Altan Khan and Han Chinese can trade with each other, all year round. No more this rigid once-every-blue-moon caravan, but trade every day if they wanted to.
Gao Gong faced huge resistance within Ming’s court for such proposal (ethnic hatre against Mongols ran deep among Chinese population). It took some political 3D chess on Gao Gong’s part, allied with Zhang JuZheng and Wang ChongGu(the general responsible for DaTong) to get this through on the Chinese side. In this regard, Gao Gong was lucky that the Emperor LongQing was open minded enough for this (and other) open market ideas.
Ming’s court final proposal included establish this “free”(in relative term) markets (total of 11 markets along the Altan Khan border), along with exchanging Altan Khan’s grandson for the Chinese traitor Zhao Quan (along with other silly conditions, such as the usual admitting Ming’s superiority).
 
当信件送到高拱手中的时候，他有了另一个想法。他看穿了俺达汗不断袭击明朝边境的真正原因，他们不是试图恢复统治明朝的蒙古王朝，而是迫切需要生活消费品。
抛开近200年的民族仇恨，高拱和其他几位内阁大臣(其实只有张居正)提出了更大胆的建议：在边境建立几个受监管的贸易市场，这样俺达汗部落就可以和汉族全年进行贸易。
不再是以前僵化的封贡制度，只要双方愿意，每天都可以交易。

但高拱的提议却在明朝朝廷内部面临巨大的阻力(明朝人对蒙古人的民族仇恨根深蒂固)。
高拱，张居正和负责大同的守将结盟，通过一些政治手段，才平息了反对声浪，高拱很幸运，隆庆皇帝的思想足够开放，也支持这个开放市场的想法。
于是，明朝在边境总共开设了11个贸易市场，同时俺达汗的孙子交换明朝叛徒赵全(当然，还有其他条件，比如承认明朝的优越地位等等)。
 
Altan Khan took the deal!
From 1570 until Ming’s demise in 1644, Altan Khan’s tribe, which located immediately next to Chinese heartland, never became a military threat. Sure, there were trade disputes and much of
While Altan Khan didn’t represent ALL Mongols, and other Mongol tribes still posed a threat to Ming after that, due to sheer geography, other Mongol threats were much less serious than Altan Khan would have posed.
This is an example of how Chinese managed to do things right, they fundamentally altered the unfortunate pattern of history thus avoided history repeating itself. Both Chinese and (Altan Khan) Mongols got what they wanted without killing each other, while putting up with each other’s annoyances…
Not bad, considering that the whole thing was triggered by some old Mongolian fart eyeing his own grandson’s fiance!
Gao Gong for this alone deserves the Chinese people’s respect.
Unfortunately for the Chinese, this lesson was completely forgotten later in Ming’s court.
Had Ming’s court took this lesson and established permanent markets to trade with Manchus, I have the strong feeling that Ming Dynasty would have survived.
 
俺达汗接受了这个协议!
从1570年到明朝1644年灭亡，紧邻明朝中原地带的俺达汗部落再未成为明朝军事威胁。
虽然俺达汗率领的鞑靼部落并不代表所有蒙古部落，其他蒙古部落仍然对明朝构成威胁，但由于地理原因，其他蒙古部落的威胁远没有俺达汗率领的鞑靼部大。
这也是明朝人一个正确处理问题的经典案例，他们从根本上改变了不幸的历史模式，从而避免了历史重演。

明朝和蒙古人都得到了他们想要的，虽然时常有摩擦，但没有再互相残杀…
仅这一点就值得明朝人民尊敬铭记高拱。
不幸的是，明朝人后来完全忘记了这一历史事件。
如果后来的明朝朝廷能够吸取这一经验，与满族人建立永久性的市场进行贸易，我认为明朝会幸存下来。

Ganbat Namjilsangarav
Wow. That’s not what I read or heard, according to Mongolian language history sources. In 1570, Altan Khan of Tumed signed treaty with Ming dynasty. However, before this, 2 things has happened:
-Daichin Baatar, a young warrior and grandson of Altan Khan was captured by Ming Dynasty during one of border skirmishes.
-In Dec of 1570, Daichin Baatar was exchanged for 80 runaway deserters of Ming.
I think the above story is mixed up with another unfortunate segment of Mongolian history. It was Elbeg Niguulsegch Khaan, grandson of Great Khaan Togstomor who reined between 1393-1399 married with Ulzii Goo Baajii, wife of his younger brother Duurentomor taiji. He killed his younger brother to marry with his wife and this unethical behavior caused great civil war between Mongolian tribes. It is not Altan Khaan who married with his grandson’s wife. It is Elbeg Khaan who married with his sister-in-law.
Altan khan was devout Buddhist who gave title” Dalai Lama” to Supreme leader of Tibetan Buddhism in 1578. Altan Khaan was city builder (he started construction of Khokh Khot) and supporter of spread of Buddhism among warring Mongolian tribes and established peace.
I don’t think Mongolian tribes never stopped being threat to Chinese dynasties until Qing dynasty crushed Zuungar, powerful confederation of Western Mongolian tribes in 1755. Ming peace with Mongolian tribes were temporary and result of peaceful (Buddhist) policy of Altan Khan and also regular opening of border trade ports by Ming.
 
1570年，俺达汗与明朝签订条约，这一点我认同
但根据蒙古语写的历史资料，在此之前发生的两件事，与明朝的记载有出入。
蒙古语史料记载
俺达汗的孙子、年轻的战士Baatar Daichin把汉那吉，在一次边境小规模冲突中被明朝抓获。
1570年12月，俺达汗用80名逃跑的明朝逃兵交换了自己的孙子。
我认为明朝将其与另一段蒙古历史搞混了。

Elbeg Niguulsegch汗，伟大的脱古思帖木儿的孙子，在1393年至1399年间与他弟弟Duurentomor 台吉的妻子Ulzii Goo Baajii结婚。他杀了弟弟，和弟媳结婚，这种不道德的行为引发了蒙古部落之间的大规模内战。
是Elbeg Niguulsegch汗和他的弟媳结婚了。而不是什么俺达汗娶孙媳妇。
俺达汗是一位虔诚的佛教徒。俺达汗是城市建设者(他开始修建呼和浩特)，支持在互相混战的蒙古部落中传播佛教，并建立了和平的局面。
我认为蒙古部落从未停止对明朝王朝的威胁，直到1755年清朝粉碎了西部蒙古部落中最强大的准噶尔部落，这一威胁才真正消除。
明朝与蒙古部落的和平只是暂时的，其中既有俺达汗推行和平(佛教)政策的原因，也有明朝定期开放边境贸易的原因。
 
Harvey King
I actually take this kind of story rather seriously. I checked with multiple sources, albeit not official history before I wrote this up.
When I looked at your response, I actually found more assuring. Because the gist of a series of events are completely identical:
Altan Khan’s grandson, which you spelled as Baatar Daichin, is phonetically almost identical to the Chinese translation (把漢那吉). In some literature, I see it spelled as Baya Aci. He was somehow end up in Chinese hand.
A deal was reached between Ming and Altan Khan. The deal contains the return of Altan Khan’s grandson, in exchange for some Chinese on the Mongol side (deserters and traitors are almost the same thing, no? ).
Part of deal was open up market to trade.
What your response differ from mine are details: how Altan Khan’s grandson end up in Chinese hand. My sources says he surrendered himself to Chinese because his beautiful fiance end up sleeping with his grandfather, while you are saying that he was conducting raid and captured by Chinese forces.
 
实际上，我对这类历史故事相当认真。在我写这篇文章之前，我查阅了多个来源，而不仅仅局限于官方历史。
当我看到你的回答时，我真的觉得更安心了。因为一系列事件的主要脉络是完全相同的:
俺达汗的孙子把汉那吉,你拼写的是Baatar Daichin,汉语翻译为把汉那吉(把漢那吉)。
在一些文献中，我看到它的拼写是Baya Aci。

但无论什么原因，他最终落入了明朝人的手中。
明朝和俺达汗达成了一项协议。这笔交易包括用俺达汗的孙子换取蒙古扣押的一些明朝叛徒(逃兵和叛徒几乎是一回事，不是吗?)。
协议的一部分是开放市场进行交易。
你的回答与我的不同之处在于细节:俺达汗的孙子是如何落入明朝人之手的。
我的消息来源说，他向明朝人投降是因为他美丽的未婚妻被他的祖父睡了，而你说他正在指挥突袭，然后被明朝军队抓获。
 
As soon as I read your version my instinct is actually leaning toward my original response. Why?
1. Because this story about Altan Khan married a woman intended for his grandson is so outrageous that it is beyond most people’s imagination. While Chinese do frequently portrait Mongols in a bad light especially during that time, it is out of character on how Chinese usually bad mouth Mongols: Chinese usually portrait Mongols more cruel and violent than reality, we don’t typically invent story like this.
2. Grandson of Altan Khan is someone with high status. He would of been properly protected and I sincerely doubt he could be captured that easily. Altan Khan was someone who raided Beijing (i.e. Chinese CAPITAL city) and burned down all suburbs of Beijing outside the city wall just twenty years earlier. I sincerely doubt Altan Khan’s army was that incompetent
3. If anything, Altan Khan, a fearsome warrior later turned a lot more peaceful than Chinese anticipated, must be very revered in Mongol history. There are every incentive for Mongols to white wash Altan Khan’s act of… marrying a woman intended for his grandson.
(in prepare for response to your reply, I went to dig out official Ming history… it turned out that this woman Altan Khan end up married was Altan Khan’s own grand daughter according to Chinese sources… see, facts are more interesting than fiction!)
4. If anything, Chinese had a nasty habit of doing exactly opposite of what you’ve described: Chinese would slaughter nomadic tribes who surrounded themselves to Chinese and later claim it was result of enemy killed on the battle field. Why? Because Chinese rewards enemy killed on the battle field and bureaucrats get reviewed every six years and such enemy kill look good on the resume. Chinese has no reason to pretend those who were captured in the battle field as a person who surrendered themselves.
 
我读到你的历史版本，我的直觉却仍然倾向于我最初的判断。为什么？
1.因为俺达汗娶了一个原本打算许配给他孙子的女人，这个故事听起来如此的离谱，以至于超出了大多数人的想象。虽然那个时候明朝人经常把蒙古人描绘得比现实更残忍和暴力，但却不会故意编造家庭伦理问题来攻击蒙古人。
2.俺达汗的孙子是地位很高的人。他会得到适当的保护，我真心怀疑他是否会那么容易被抓获。俺达汗是20年前沿着北京城墙劫掠一圈的人。我真心怀疑俺达汗的军队是否有那么无能。

3.如果说有什么不同的话，那就是俺达汗，这位可怕的战士后来变得比明朝人预期的要和平得多，他在蒙古历史上一定非常受尊敬。蒙古人完全有理由粉饰俺达汗的…行为。娶了一个原本打算给他孙子的女人。
(为了回应你的回复，我专门去翻找了明朝官方史料…据明朝官方史料记载称，俺达汗最终娶了自己的孙女/孙媳妇（译者注：这位孙媳妇据史料说与俺达汗有血缘关系，可以算是孙女）。看，现实往往比小说更有趣！)。
4.如果说有什么不同的话，那就是明朝人有一个与你所描述的历史正好相反的恶习：那就是明朝人会屠杀那些在战场上投降的游牧士兵，然后声称这些是战场上被杀死的敌人。为什么？因为明朝人会根据杀敌数奖励士兵和军官，官僚们每六年审查一次战绩，简历上的杀敌数自然是越多越好。
 
It is obvious that your view of Altan Khan is drastically different than mine. Altan Khan in his life killed and captured hundreds of thousands of Chinese people… much of Altan Khan’s attack were unprovoked. So, he was not exactly some peaceful guy from a Chinese perspective.
The fact that Gao Gong, Zhang JuZheng, Wang ChongGu were willing to negotiate with this person who literally had Chinese blood on his hand made this entire episode more remarkable.
Having said that, even in Chinese official history, it stated that Altan Khan turned peaceful later in his life and managed to control his tribe not disturb the peace.
 
很明显，你对俺达汗的看法与我截然不同。俺达汗一生杀害和俘虏了数十万明朝人…俺达汗的大部分攻击都是无缘无故的。因此，从明朝人的角度来看，俺达汗并不完全是一个和平的人。
高拱，张居正，以及镇守大同的将军愿意与这位手上沾满明朝人鲜血的人谈判，所以才会更加引人注目。
话虽如此，但明朝官方的历史记载也指出，俺达汗在晚年变得和平起来，并设法控制了他的部落，维持了和平
 
Ganbat Namjilsangarav
Altan Khan was not saint. He attacked West Mongolian tribes-Oirats and also Tumed Mongols in Khokh nuur area. He was a warrior. Internecine wars between various Mongolian tribes were constant at that time and he tried to strengthen centralized statehood of Mongolia by attacking various Mongol tribes. He laid down introduction of Tibetan Buddhism in Mongolia as a way to pacify Mongols and reduce wars and battles. He attacked shamanism (Tengrism) old beliefs of Mongolian tribes and banned worship of Ongod Tengri at the pain of death. He thought Tengrism is not bringing any unity of Mongolians and encouraged wars. He was disgusted at shamanic practice of offering animal sacrifices to Tengri. He thought at least some Mongolians should settle down and build city and grow vegetables and wheat. He was not some old man full of lust for his granddaughter. Mongolian custom bans marriage within relatives for 9 generations. It is very different than some cultures which allow “Cousin marriage”. This custom is strictly followed in Mongolia until today, unless one unknowingly marries his own relative or cousin’s cousin, it is absolutely prohibited. How can someone who is a figure of authority and direct descendant of Chinggis Khaan marry or even have an affair with his granddaughter or someone who is intended to marry with his grandson? It will cause instant uprising against him by those already eager to fight him and his family. Altan Khan’s life is very well documented not only in Mongolian language sources, but also in Tibetan language sources and none of these sources mention about this. I’m not saying that Altan Khan was a saint, he was a warrior fitting his time. His attacks against other tribes were bloody and brutal. However, him going against all sacred customs of his people by marrying with his granddaughter can’t be true. Incest is not allowed in Mongolia for 9 generations.
He can’t last long if he did that. He not only lived a long and prosperous life, his grand-grandson was 4th Dalai Lama.
 
俺达汗不是圣人。
他袭击了西部蒙古部落卫拉特/瓦剌，还袭击了霍赫湖地区的土默特蒙古人。
但他是个勇士。当时各蒙古族部落之间自相残杀的战争不断，他试图通过打压各蒙古族部落来巩固中央集权。他将藏传佛教引入蒙古，以此来安抚蒙古人，减少战争和战斗。

他攻击蒙古族部落古老的信仰萨满教(腾格里教)（长生天），并禁止崇拜腾格里（长生天）。他认为萨满教不会为蒙古人带来任何团结，只会引发战争。他对萨满教向腾格里（长生天）供奉动物祭品的做法感到厌恶。他认为至少应该有一些蒙古人定居下来，建造城市，种植蔬菜和小麦。他不是一个对孙女充满欲望的老人。

蒙古族习俗9代内禁止亲属结婚。这与一些允许“表亲结婚”的文化有很大的不同。这一习俗在蒙古国一直沿用至今，除非双方都不清楚彼此有血缘关系，否则是绝对禁止的。
俺达汗怎么能与自己直系后裔的女人有染，甚至结婚呢？这将导致那些反对他的部落立即起兵反对他。

俺达汗的生平不仅在蒙古语史料中有很好的记录，而且在藏文史料中也有很好的记录，但这些史料中都没有提到这一点。
我不是想把俺达汗塑造成一个圣人，他只是一个属于他所在时代的战士。他对其他部落的攻击是血腥和野蛮的。然而，他与孙女结婚会违背蒙古族的神圣习俗，这不可能是真的。蒙古9代内禁止亲属结婚。
如果他那样做，他也活不了多久。但他不仅长命百岁。