低油价对特斯拉不利吗?

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Ron Rule, CEO @ As Seen On TV
No, low oil prices are actually GOOD for Tesla and for EV''s in general.
The reason most people aren''t buying EV''s has nothing to do with gas prices, it has to do with range.
Thus, for most people, an EV is their second or third vehicle in their collection. It may very well be the one they drive to the office every day, but it''s rarely their only car, because few people are willing to have their only vehicle limited by a maximum daily range.
Lower fuel costs frees up capital that can be allocated to a second vehicle. At one point, when I lived quite a bit further from the office than I do now, I was spending about $600 per month on fuel between my getting to work every day and my wife running around doing things with the kids. If that ongoing fuel cost were reduced, we could have easily made our second vehicle an EV, but with costs what they were - both fuel and the EV costs - it wouldn''t have made sense.

不，低油价实际上对特斯拉和电动汽车都有好处。
大多数人不买电动汽车的原因与汽油价格无关，而与行驶里程有关。
因此，对大多数人来说，电动汽车是他们收藏的第二辆或第三辆车。很可能是他们每天开车去上班的地方，但很少是他们唯一的车，因为很少有人愿意把他们唯一的车辆限制在每天的最大行驶里程范围内。
较低的燃料成本释放了可分配给第二辆车的资金。有一次，当我住得比离现在的办公室远一点的时候，从每天上班到妻子带着孩子四处奔波，我每个月都要花600美元买燃料。如果持续的燃料成本降低，我们可以在轻松地购买第二辆车时选择电动汽车，但如果成本与实际成本（燃料成本和电动汽车成本）持平，那就没有意义了。

I actually did the math. At 2007 fuel and EV prices, I would have to have driven that EV 327,000 miles to break even on fuel savings.
I still wanted an EV though, just because I''m an auto buff and technology geek, and it''s the perfect manifestation of both. And since I''m also on a perpetual quest to be Batman in real life, in 2011 I decided to build my own. Four years later, here is the end result:
Believe it or not, what you''re looking at was once a 1968 Volkswagen Beetle. Today, it''s powered by a series wound DC motor and 38 lithium phosphate batteries, has a range of around 90 miles, and does 0-60 in about 3 seconds. No doors, hydraulic top that opens and closes with a keyless entry button, and painted Satin Black.
Total cost was about $20,000 - more than I would ever have spent on fuel in a Beetle, that''s for sure.
Fuel costs aren''t why people go electric. Performance, Eco-friendliness, and being a part of an emerging technology is. For Tesla, they''re targeting an audience who would otherwise buy a Jaguar XJ or BMW 7 series. This isn''t a group that cares about the cost to fill the tank.
But for everyone else, low fuel prices get them closer to being able to afford to go electric.

我真的计算过了。以2007年的燃油和电动汽车价格计算，我必须开32.7万英里的电动汽车才能在节约的燃油方面与实现收支平衡。
但我仍然想要一辆电动汽车，仅仅因为我自身是一个汽车爱好和技术宅的完美追求者。其实我2011年在追求成为现实生活中的蝙蝠侠，于是我决定建立自己造一个蝙蝠侠。四年后出来的结果是：信不信由你，如今你看到的是一辆1968年产的大众甲壳虫。它由一个串联直流电动机和38节磷酸锂电池供电，续航里程约为90英里，在3秒钟内完成0-60英里。没有门，液压方式从顶部打开和关闭与无钥匙进入按钮，车身并被涂上缎黑色油漆。总成本约为20000美元——这是肯定的，比我在甲壳虫上花在燃料上的钱还多。
燃料成本不是人们用电的原因。性能、环保以及成为使用新兴技术等等这些才是用电的原因。对于特斯拉来说，他们瞄准的是那些原本会购买捷豹XJ或宝马7系的消费者。这不是一个关心燃油成本的群体。
但对其他有些人人来说，低油价使他们在燃油上的消耗就更接近能够负担得起的电力消耗了。



Kåre Lohse, with a wrong-side-of-the-road Tesla Model S
When you buy a car, whether electric or fossil fuel driven, it will likely last you (or subsequent owners) 10 years or more. Especially the Tesla Model S (and X) as it''s made mainly of aluminum, and has few parts to maintain. I reckon most Tesla Model S and X will last well over 20 years. But even if you buy a brand new dino juice cruiser, you have committed to THAT fuel for so many years. Of course you can sell it on, but if fuel price goes up, second hand prices of ICE cars will drop.
What will gas (or diesel or LPG) cost in 2035?
Looking at what the pump price is yesterday, today or tomorrow, is just a temporary indication of a very variable - and significant - part of the total cost of ownership - if you own a fossil fuel driven car.

当你买了一辆汽车，无论是电动的还是燃油驱动的，它可能会让你(或者转让后的车主)使用10年或更长时间。特别是特斯拉S型(和X型)，因为它主要是由铝制成的，几乎没有零部件需要维护。我估计大多数特斯拉Model S和Model X的寿命会超过20年。但是，即使你买了一辆全新的巡洋舰，你也已经使用这种燃料很多年了。当然你可以继续卖给别人，但是如果油价上涨，二手冰车的价格就会下降。
2035年天然气(或柴油或液化石油气)的价格将会是多少?
看看昨天、今天或明天的汽油价格是多少，这是一个暂时价格。如果你拥有一辆以石油燃料为动力的汽车，你的总拥有成本中有很大一部分是可变的，而且非常重要。

Simon Crump, Model S 100D, referral code http://ts.la/simon52315
Not really.
Firstly, as others have observed, Tesla is in the luxury car market and so the fuel cost saving is less significant than for other EV manufacturers. If you buy a $100k car, saving an extra $5 each time you recharge instead of filling up is neither here nor there. The car has other unique selling points.
But there''s something equally important, which is that the US is not the only market for EVs and elsewhere the falling price of oil on the commodity markets affects the consumer price of fuel somewhat less. Gasoline/petrol is heavily taxed in Europe and there are twice as many people there than in the US.
In the UK petrol currently costs £1 per litre and 78p of that is tax. That is equivalent to around $6 per US gallon, and at the top of the market British drivers were paying more than $8 per US gallon. Either way, buying petrol is many times more expensive than recharging an EV. Even with the current low oil prices, my cost per mile in a petrol car in the UK is about $0.25 versus less than $0.05 per mile for an EV (and that''s if I pay for all my own electricity).
So even if Americans can''t make a strong case for buying Teslas in the current market, the Europeans can. The best selling car in Norway is the Tesla Model S:

不是真的。
首先，正如其他人所观察到的，特斯拉是在豪华车市场，因此节省燃料成本的重要性低于其他电动汽车制造商。如果你买了一辆10万美元的车，每次充值时多存5美元而不是充值，这是不存在的。这辆车还有其他独特的卖点。
但同样重要的是，美国并不是电动汽车的唯一市场，而其他国家大宗商品市场油价下跌对燃料消费价格的影响稍小。在欧洲，汽油税很高，那里的人口是美国的两倍。在英国，汽油目前每升售价1英镑，其中78便士是税。这相当于每加仑6美元左右，在市场的顶端，英国司机每加仑要支付8美元以上。不管怎样，买汽油比给电动车充电贵很多倍。即使在目前油价较低的情况下，我在英国开一辆汽油车的每英里成本约为0.25美元，而电动汽车的每英里成本不到0.05美元（如果我自己支付所有的电费的话）。
因此，即使美国人不能在目前的市场上为购买特斯拉提供有力的理由，欧洲人也可以。挪威最畅销的汽车是特斯拉S型。



Ian McCullough, IRL: Technology & Education / Quora: Politics + Other Stuff
No one is buying a Tesla as an economic consideration to save money on gasoline. Some people might buy a Tesla since they''re zero-emissions. Like all luxury cars, part of the reason that people buy them is to make a statement.

没有人买特斯拉是为了省钱买汽油。有些人可能会买特斯拉，因为它们是零排放的。和所有豪华车一样，人们购买豪华车的部分原因是为了传递某种理念。