Quarterly trade data from OEC.world for cars (HS 8703) reveals how sharply the competitive landscape has shifted between China and Europe's five largest auto-exporting nations (Germany, France, Spain, the UK, and Italy) over the past three years.

来自 OEC.world 的汽车(HS 8703)季度贸易数据揭示了过去三年间,中国与欧洲五大汽车出口国(德国、法国、西班牙、英国和意大利)之间竞争格局发生了多么剧烈的变化。

China's car exports went from $77B in 2023 to $110B in 2025, a 43% increase. Over the same period, the EU5 combined fell from $290B to $257B, an 11% decline. Germany still leads in absolute quarterly exports, but barely. In Q4 2025, Germany shipped $36.6B in cars versus China's $35.6B. That gap was $26B just two years earlier.

中国的汽车出口从2023年的770亿美元增长到2025年的1100亿美元,增幅达到43%。同期,欧盟五国合计从2900亿美元下降到2570亿美元,下降了11%。德国在季度出口总量上仍然领先,但优势已非常微弱。到2025年第四季度,德国汽车出口为366亿美元,而中国为356亿美元。就在两年前,这一差距还高达260亿美元。

What's arguably more significant is the trade balance. Germany has long been the world's dominant car trade surplus country, but China overtook it in Q3 2025. By Q4 2025, China's quarterly surplus reached $30.3B compared to Germany's $18.6B. China's car imports have collapsed, falling from $10–13B per quarter in 2023 to around $5–6B by late 2025. That suggests domestic Chinese automakers, especially in EVs, are displacing foreign brands at home while simultaneously ramping up exports abroad.

或许更重要的是贸易顺差。德国长期以来一直是全球汽车贸易顺差最大的国家,但中国在2025年第三季度已实现反超。到2025年第四季度,中国季度顺差达到303亿美元,而德国为186亿美元。中国汽车进口大幅下滑,从2023年每季度100亿至130亿美元,降至2025年末约50亿至60亿美元。这表明中国本土汽车制造商,尤其是在电动车领域,正在在国内取代外国品牌,同时也在加速扩大海外出口。

The destination data is also worth noting. China's top markets are Russia ($23.7B), Belgium ($13.8B, likely a transshipment hub into Europe), the UAE, and the UK. The EU5 still rely heavily on intra-European trade (roughly a third of their combined exports go to other EU5 members) with the US as their largest external market at $64.4B.

目的地数据同样值得注意。中国的主要市场包括俄罗斯(237亿美元)、比利时(138亿美元,很可能是进入欧洲的中转枢纽)、阿联酋和英国。欧盟五国则仍然高度依赖欧洲内部贸易(约三分之一的出口流向其他欧盟五国成员),其最大的外部市场是美国,总额达644亿美元。

Every European exporter declined year-over-year in 2025. The UK was hit hardest at −17.3%, followed by Spain at −6.3%, Germany at −3.1%, and France at −0.5%. Italy's data is only available through Q2 2025 but was already trending down sharply in 2024 (−21%).

2025年,所有欧洲出口国的汽车出口均同比下降。其中英国跌幅最大,为−17.3%,其次是西班牙−6.3%、德国−3.1%、法国−0.5%。意大利的数据仅截至2025年第二季度,但在2024年已呈现出明显下滑趋势(−21%)。