10年内是中国还是美国会成为主导世界的大国，民调答案为中国，Reddit评论区认为人口问题成为障碍

u/arthuroMo
10y seems short for that to happen. And China has that demography problem coming up.

10年对于这种事情似乎太短了，而且中国即将面临人口问题。

No-Theory6270
Yeah but China doesn't have that many inmigrants to compensate

是的，但中国没有那么多移民来补偿人口.

Comfortable_Bike3247
Does China really need that many immigrants?

中国真的需要那么多移民吗？

GriffinNowak
How else will they get the diversity they need to be successful?

那他们如何获得成功所需的多样性？

u/boobookittyfuwk
The way countries work is only if there are more young working people than old people. China cant attract immigrants like the west can. Ai and robotics might help a bit but with more old people and less working people you have too much money going to support old people and not enough money going into infastructure, tech, long term investments etc.

国家运作的方式是只有当年轻工作人口多于老年人口时才行。中国不能像西方那样吸引移民。人工智能和机器人技术可能会有所帮助，但老年人口增多而工作人口减少时，你得花太多的钱用于支持老年人，而没有足够的钱投入到基础设施、技术、长期投资等等。

u/Adventurous-Elk-1457
It's not like a lot of Latinos are thrilled to move to the US right now, given the current circumstances. I imagine that the number of migrants to the US will quickly drop

鉴于目前的情况，很多拉丁美洲人并不热衷于搬到美国，我可以想象到美国的移民数量会迅速下降。

PassaTempo15
It will but the fertility rate in the US is still 50% higher than China's and even though immigration will fall the net migration rate is likely to remain above China's too

会的，但美国的生育率仍然比中国高50%，即使移民数量会下降，净移民率也可能保持在中国之上。

edeepee
Latin America is also underwater in fertility rate so it's not like those countries can afford to lose young people anymore.

拉丁美洲的生育率也在下降，所以这些国家再也承受不起失去年轻人的代价了。

B3ansb3ansb3ans
That's not true. Legal immigration from Latino countries is still very high with decade long waiting periods.
48% of Latinos voted for Trump in 2024.

那是不真实的，来自拉丁美洲国家的合法移民数量仍然很高，等待期长达十年。
48%的拉丁裔在2024年投票给了特朗普。

Wgh555
They will yes, but China would need 200 mill per year to offset their losses in declining population and there simply aren't enough willing immigrants in the world for that.

他们会的，是的，但中国每年需要2亿人来抵消人口下降的损失，而世界上根本没有足够多的愿意移民的人。

barlog123
Given the choice would you rather live in latin America or the US? If desired the US could accept millions of Latinos every year.

如果有选择的话，你宁愿住在拉丁美洲还是美国？如果愿意的话，美国每年可以接受数百万拉丁裔。

GingerPrince72
And neither will the US.

美国也不会的。

u/kingofwale
Imagine thinking that...
China doesn't have to try to kick people out

想象像这样考虑...
中国不必试图赶人出去

u/Wonderful-Sail-1126
Immigrants come with their own problems. Robots should contribute to more GDP growth in the future than your average immigrant.

移民会带来他们自己的问题。机器人应该比普通移民为未来的GDP增长做出更多贡献。

u/Ornery-Creme-2442
They still have a huge population, part of the work has gone to different countries. And they're working alot on automation and robotics and ai. They'll probably still suffer some. But I don't see it getting in the way completely.

中国仍然有庞大的人口，部分工作已经转移到不同的国家。他们在自动化、机器人技术和人工智能方面做了很多工作。他们可能仍会遭受一些影响，但我不认为这会完全妨碍他们前进。

u/The_1ndiegamer
Massive aging one tho, their population pyramid is hugely negative, doubt robotics or AI can replace that much.

不过他们老龄化严重，人口金字塔非常负面，怀疑机器人或人工智能能否替代那么多。

u/Alive-Big-838
In fairness, China still has a very large surplus of human capitol they could utilize for more technical positions. Though I do contend that human beings do age out so I'm not saying this is bulletproof.

公平地说，中国仍然有大量的人力资本剩余，可以用于更多的技术职位。不过我确实认为人类是会衰老的，所以我说这不是万无一失的。

u/Untethered_GoldenGod
Yeah and if their planners decide it necessary they can open the gates and probably get 100 million Indians/south asians in a year
Why are people acting like China can't do what Europe and the US did?

是的，如果他们的规划者认为有必要，他们可以打开大门，可能在一年内获得1亿印度人/南亚人
为什么人们表现得好像中国不能做欧洲和美国所做的事情？

No-Theory6270
You sure there is that big demand?

你确定有那么大的需求吗？

Proiegomena
Dont worry then, the US is working hard on making that a problem as well

那就不用担心了，美国也在努力让这个成为一个问题。

u/Training_Guide5157
That's by design though. It could change very quickly with a policy change if the government feels it's necessary.
Getting a Chinese green card has become easier in recent years, but it's still relatively difficult.

这是设计好了的，如果政府认为有必要，通过政策变化可以很快改变。
近年来获得中国绿卡变得更容易了，但仍然相对困难。

pannous
they have robots to compensate

他们有机器人来作补偿.

Wgh555
Yes but Chinas is on another level to even Europe , their birthrate is 0.93 births per couple - you need at least 2.1 per couple to maintain your population.
Which means at this rate their population is going to half every generation, in fact more than half so by 2100 their population will be less than half the size and the remaining population will have a much higher percentage of retirees on average, compared to those contributing.
They may well be as strong as they're going to get right now or at least over the next ten years before they start to drop off, barring any real advances in AI and automation.

是的，但中国的情况比欧洲还要严重，他们的生育率是每对夫妇0.93个孩子——你需要至少每对夫妇2.1个孩子才能维持人口。
这意味着按照这个速度，他们的人口每一代就会减半，实际上还超过一半，所以到2100年他们的人口将不到原来的一半，剩余人口的退休人员平均比例将比贡献者高得多。
它们很可能会和现在一样强劲，或者至少还有十年才开始下降，除非人工智能和自动化有真正的进步。

u/883Max
They are not in great shape for the future. You are totally right, but just scratching the surface when it comes to reasons to avoid investing big on their future. Talk of their rise was very fitting eight years ago. At this point (at least right now), they have a very beautiful country for tourism, but they are not "it". Long-term, I would even give India an edge over China as long as India can clean up India.

他们的状况不太适合未来。你说得完全正确，但是，当谈到避免为未来投资的原因时，只是触及了表面。八年前谈论他们的崛起是很合适的。在这一点上（至少现在），他们是一个非常适合旅游的美丽国家，但他们不是"那个（主导）"。从长远来看，只要印度能够整顿印度，我甚至认为印度比中国更有优势。

goodsam2
China's working age population has already been falling for a decade. They had the 1 child policy and stuff so China was younger than the US not that long ago and they are growing older than the US quickly.
The pro-China idea is that sure there are less rural subsistence farmers and now there are more factory workers.
Also the UN projections when I've dug into it are too rosy with their TFR seeing a rebound when I don't think we've ever seen a TFR rebound sustained like they project. SE Asia has hit new lows in TFR every year it seems like.
Also my personal doomer read on China is they have been pumping a lot of money into the economy since 2008 or so and so they had a very low debt level to now they have a higher debt to GDP level than the US today. There has to be a breaking point of that。

中国的劳动年龄人口已经下降了十年。他们有独生子女政策等等，所以不久前中国比美国年轻，现在他们比美国老得更快。
亲华的观点是，农村自给自足的农民确实少了，现在工厂工人多了。
此外，当我深入研究时，发现联合国的预测也过于乐观，他们的总生育率（TFR)出现了一个反弹，而我认为, 我们从未见过像他们预测的那样持续的TFR反弹。东南亚的总生育率似乎每年也都创下新低。

另外，我个人对中国悲观的看法是，自从2008年左右以来他们一直在向经济注入大量资金，所以他们从很低的债务水平到达了比如今的美国还高的债务GDP占比，这肯定会有一个临界点。

u/Alarming-Mission-482
China has a significantly more severe one their fertility rate declined less than 1 in 2025 and they don't have any immigrant inflow to mitigate it

中国的情况要严重得多，他们的生育率在2025年下降到1以下，而且他们没有任何移民流入来缓解这种情况.

u/tennisdrums
Everyone does, however the timing is different. Most of the developed world saw their fertility rates decline over the past decade or so. China instituted its One Child Policy starting in 1979. The US has also seen its fertility rate declining slower than most developed countries due to immigrant communities.
If prognosticators are correct about the impact of the demographic crises in these countries, then we can expect China to feel the effects before most developed countries, and the US to feel the effects later than most of the others.

每个国家都有这个问题，但时间不同。在过去十年左右的时间里，大多数发达国家的生育率都在下降，中国从1979年开始实施独生子女政策。由于移民社区的影响，美国的生育率下降速度也比大多数发达国家慢。
如果预测者对这些国家的人口危机影响的预测是正确的，那么我们可以预期中国会在大多数发达国家之前感受到影响，而美国会比大多数其他国家更晚感受到影响。

u/rafganow
Chinas urban fertility is as low as .52 kids per women in some cities and remember there are 30 million more men than women.
Including rural it's almost below 1 child per woman. It's borderline apocalyptic.

中国一些城市的城镇生育率低至每位女性0.52个孩子，记住男性比女性多3000万。
包括农村地区，每位女性几乎不到1个孩子，这简直是末日边缘。

nwbrown
China's are much worse due to the 1 child policy and a lack of immigrants.

中国的情况很糟糕，因为独生子女政策和缺乏移民。

u/LazyBoyD
That's is right. On thing about the US is that we will continue to accept immigrants to ease any demographic challenges. Understand immigrants are down with the current administration but once that changes it will tick back upward.

对，在美国的事情上，我们将继续接受移民，以缓解任何人口挑战。理解移民在现任政府下有所减少，但一旦情况发生变化，它将回升。

u/Senior-Friend-6414
Immigration will continue to create further social friction and problems in america unless Americans are finally ready to solve the root problem, which are all of the conservative Americans
Without taking care of that problem, adding immigrants into America will exacerbate all of Americas social issues

除非美国人最后准备好解决根本问题，否则移民将继续在美国造成更多的社会摩擦和问题，而根本问题就是所有的保守派美国人。
如果不解决这个问题，增加移民进入美国将加剧美国所有的社会问题.

u/LazyBoyD
I'm calling BS. They are mostly employed in very conservative industries such as farms, meat plants, and resorts. As long as the need for labor remains they will keep coming. Mind you these are also all jobs that AI will certainly not replace and I'm confident that AI displaced American labor does not have the will to do these jobs.

我说为都是胡说。他们大多受雇于非常保守的行业，如农场、肉类工厂和度假村。只要对劳动力的需求仍然存在，他们就会继续涌入。请注意，这些也都是AI肯定不会取代的工作，我相信被AI取代的美国劳动力没有意愿做这些工作。

bot_lltcp
demography problem plus many of the wealthy still try to move their wealth and children out of China, and their economy is still mostly just manufacture-for-export.
imo we are seeing peak China right now.

人口问题加上许多富人仍然试图把他们的财富和孩子移出中国，他们的经济仍然主要是出口制造业。
在我看来，我们现在看到的是中国的巅峰时期.

Comfortable_Bike3247
That's a pretty shallow take. People have been calling "peak China" for decades and they've been wrong every time.
Demographic issues? Every major country has them, some worse. And China isn't just "manufacture-for-export" anymore companies like Huawei and BYD show how far they've moved into high-tech and global markets.
Wealthy people moving money abroad happens everywhere it's not some unique red flag.
Calling it "peak" sounds less like analysis and more like wishful thinking.

这是个相当肤浅的看法。人们几十年来一直在说"中国巅峰"，但他们每次都错了。
人口问题？每个主要国家都有，有些更严重。中国不再只是"出口制造业"，像华为和比亚迪这样的公司显示了他们在高科技和全球市场的进展。
富人把钱转移到国外在各地都发生，这不是什么独特的危险信号。
称之为"巅峰"听起来更像是一厢情愿而不是分析得来的。

Ok_Caregiver1004
30 years maybe. China right now occupies the same place the US did back in the 1900s when internal combustion engines powered by oil were finally maturing to be a reliable scalable alternative and replacement to the dominance of coal based steam engines of the previous century.
I'm no expert on the matter but the shipping and airline/transport industry will likely continue relying on oil or natural gas in the coming decades, while land transport will catch up with trains and become more and more electric based.

也许还要30年吧。中国现在占据着美国在1900年代的地位，当时以石油为动力的内燃机终于成熟起来，成为上个世纪占主导地位的以煤为动力的蒸汽机的可靠的可扩展的替代品。
我对这个问题不是专家，但航运和航空/运输业在接下来的几十年里可能将继续依赖石油或天然气，而陆路运输将赶上火车并变得越来越电动化。

u/Marmar79
The demography problem is less of a problem when ai takes over

当人工智能接管时，人口问题就不是什么大问题了.

u/ShamBez_HasReturned
The Chinese demographic crisis is more of a long-term / at least 2040s problem than a "within this decade" problem.

中国的人口危机是一个更长期的问题，至少要到2040年代，而不是一个"在这十年之内"的问题。

u/EntertainerDowntown3
100% agree how do people think China will be the dominant world power in 10 years. That's so short it's not even funny and I'd be extremely surprised if that happens and I think it's close to 0% chance China overtakes the US. Right now US is so far ahead in basically every single industry and the ones they are lagging can catch up pretty quick if the government policy/private sector changes their stance alittle bit. US usually leads and invents most of the stuff and China just steals it or copies it... a very different thing as one takes a lot more effort and is way harder to do

完全同意，人们怎么认为中国会在10年内成为主导世界的强国。这个时间太短了，甚至不值得让人一笑，如果这发生了，我会非常惊讶，我认为中国超越美国的可能性接近于0%。现在美国基本上在每个行业中都遥遥领先，那些他们落后的行业，如果政府政策/私营部门稍微改变一下立场就能很快赶上。美国通常是引领和发明大部分东西的，而中国只是TQ或复制它...这是完全不同的事情，因为前者需要付出更多的努力并且更难做到。

Caeldeth
Total population IS an issue when the bottom needs to support the top
When you have 5x more retired people than working people, you have a crisis.

当底层需要支撑顶层时，总人口确实是个问题
当你的退休人口比工作人口多5倍时，你就有危机了。

u/beatlemaniac007
Population size doens't matter, it's the number of old vs young that matters, ie. an inverted pyramid is the worst case scenario. Total number of people is irrelevant

人口规模不重要，重要的是老年人与年轻人的数量，即倒金字塔是最坏的情况，总人数无关紧要.

u/ow191
I hate to say this. Between the Big *eplacement (I don't dare to use the original words) in Europe and the aging population in China, which one is worse in terms of stability?

我讨厌说这个，在欧洲的大替代（我不敢用原话）和中国的人口老龄化之间，哪一个在稳定性方面更糟糕？
【大替代，欧洲右派流传的本地人口正被大规模替换的观点，留言中此词故意输错，应为Big replacement。译注】

u/arthuroMo
One exists and the other is a fantasy.

一个存在，另一个是幻想。

Designer-Muffin-5653
Look at Chinas development since 2016, then since 2006 ect. They can absolutely pull it off

看看中国自2016年以来的发展，然后是自2006年以来的发展等等，他们绝对能做到。

Kakariko_crackhouse
u/GayGeekInLeather
I mean what developed country doesn't have that problem?

我的意思是哪个发达国家没有这个问题？

u/beatlemaniac007
USA. They are still the most in demand country for immigration, they have always managed to use immigration to offset birth rate issues.

美国，他们仍然是最受欢迎的移民国家，他们一直设法利用移民来抵消出生率问题。

Junkley
USA and a few countries in Europe have alleviated this issue with large amounts of immigration.
Countries that are more insular like China, Japan and Korea are going to get this problem much worse than a place like the US

美国和欧洲一些国家通过大量移民缓解了这个问题。
像中国、日本和韩国这样更加封闭的国家将比美国等地遇到更严重的问题.

DontHitDaddy
Coming up? It's already here. The 1:2:4 is killing China

即将到来？已经在这里了，1:2:4正在杀死中国.

Horzzo
It's a poll, and if we can all agree on one thing, it's that polls are usually bullshit when it comes to reality.

这是一个民意调查，如果有一件事我们都同意的话，那就是，民意调查在现实面前通常是废话。

u/Asheejeekar
Droid army.

机器人大军。

Disastrous_Wafer_913
Will use robot to replace human production, keeping unemployment low.

将使用机器人替代人力生产，保持低失业率。

Odd_Photograph_7591
China is already ahead of the US in 66 of 74 critical fields
The US National Security Strategy 2025: A Recalibration https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-us-national-security-strategy-2025-a-recalibration#:~:text=According%20to%20the%202025%20Australian,90%20percent%20of%20such%20technologies.

中国在74个关键领域中已经有66个领先于美国
美国国家安全战略2025：【链接略，译注】

u/DrawingDramatic1641
I think they have prepared a out it more than other narions

我认为他们比其他国家准备得更充分。

Snoo30446
I've yet to hear anyone give a reasonable explanation for how any nation is expected to deal with 400,000,000 retirees by 2050 other than magical robots.

我还没有听到任何人给出合理的解释，除了神奇的机器人之外，国家预期要如何处理到2050年的4亿退休人口问题。

gravitysort
Good take. China's GDP as a percentage of the US's actually has kind of plateaued for a few years now. With the ensuing crazy population decline, the future is really hard to tell..

讲得不错，中国的GDP占美国的比例实际上这几年已经趋于平稳。随着随之而来的疯狂人口下降，未来真的很难预测。

u/OkDifficulty7436
The 2040s and 2050s are going to be extremely brutal on China

2040年代和2050年代对中国来说将极其残酷.

u/Senior-Friend-6414
Chinas economy was 15% the size of the U.S. economy in 2000, and then 40% the size in 2010, and then 70% the size in 2020
Americans are about to get sucker punched really hard in the coming decades if they keep putting their head in the sand

中国的经济在2000年是美国经济规模的15%，然后在2010年达到40%，在2020年达到70%.
如果美国人继续把头埋在沙子里，他们将在未来几十年受到沉重打击.

invariantspeed
China's GDP already exceeded the US's, years ago, when purchasing power parity adjusted.

按购买力平价调整后，中国的GDP多年前就已经超过了美国.

u/Bartekmms
Tbh its not that unrealistic, ofc not total domination but advantage in technology etc f.e 3 years ago i wouldnt touch Chinese car with stick, nowdays in places where i travel (mostly Germany and Poland) i see more and more Chinese brands dealers everymonth and they have realy good opinions meanwhile opinions of american cars going down. Same for Chinese phones, for 300$-400$ you could have prety decent one. Things that remain in US dominance would be software for sure

说实话，这并不是那么不现实，当然不是完全主导，而是在技术等方面有优势。比如说3年前我碰都不会碰中国车，现在在我旅行的地方（主要是德国和波兰）我每个月都看到越来越多的中国品牌经销商，而且他们的口碑很好，而美国车的口碑在下降。中国手机也是如此，用300-400美元你能买到相当不错的手机。美国继续保持主导地位的东西肯定是软件。

u/aspects1
ok but i cant remember the last time american cars were good. They are only popular in the US i dont think any large US auto manufacturer besides maybe tesla has a notable footprint globally. As for phones, while some Chinese phones have seen rises, the dominant 2 (outside of China) are still Samsung and Apple.

好吧，但我想不起上次美国有好车什么是时候了。它们只在美国流行，我认为除了特斯拉之外，没有大型美国汽车制造商在全球有显著的影响力。至于手机，虽然一些中国手机有所上升，但主导的两个品牌（在中国以外）仍然是三星和苹果。

Mama_Swag
Ironically I saw a lot of fords in China

讽刺的是，我在中国看到了很多福特车

pinksks
Globally, Samsung and Apple together make ~40% of smartphone sales, with the rest overwhelmingly being owned by Chinese brands, not to mention that they've already overtaken the big 2 in a ton of countries with explosive population growth

在全球范围内，三星和苹果合计占智能手机销量的约40%，其余绝大部分由中国品牌拥有，更不用说它们已经在许多人口快速增长的国家超过了这两个巨头。

UCanDoNEthing4_30sec
China loves the some Buicks though! Also a lot of ford fiestas and focuses outside the US, due to their size and efficiency. I've seen quite a few Jeeps outside the US too.

不过中国喜欢别克车！在美国以外也有很多福特嘉年华和福克斯，因为它们的大小和效率。我在美国以外也看到了不少吉普车。

Maya-K
Pretty sure I read a while back that China is the main reason Buick still exists, which sounds about right really. And yup, Fords are absolutely everywhere in Europe! Though probably not for too much longer now they've stopped selling small cars.
Chrysler has also had a major presence in South America, Australia, and South Africa since the 1950s. And Dodge commercial vehicles used to be pretty common in Britain until the 1990s.

我很确定我之前读到过中国是别克仍然存在的主要原因，这听起来确实是对的。是的，福特在欧洲到处都是！不过现在他们停止销售小型车后可能不会持续太久了。
克莱斯勒自1950年代以来在南美洲、澳大利亚和南非也占有重要地位，道奇商用车在英国直到1990年代都很常见。

Upset_Following9017
Ford in Europe is a unique situation as in they have had R&D and manufacturing in Germany ever since 1925, with unique models for the European market.
GM used to have a similar thing with Opel but sold it to Stellantis years ago.

福特在欧洲是一个独特的情况，因为他们自1925年以来就在德国设有研发和制造基地，为欧洲市场提供独特车型。
通用汽车曾经与欧宝有类似的情况，但几年前把它卖给了斯特兰蒂斯。

Maya-K
Even more specifically, Ford had three separate European branches which each designed and manufactured their own models: Germany, Britain, and France. As well as similar setups in Australia and Brazil.

更具体地说，福特有三个独立的欧洲分支机构，每个都设计和制造自己的车型：德国、英国和法国，在澳大利亚和巴西也有类似设置。

u/Ingr1d
Phone is more or less due to Western countries sanctioning Huawei though. You should use countries which didn't sanction Huawei as a reference.

手机或多或少是由于西方国家制裁华为。你应该使用没有制裁华为的国家作为参考。

HouseOfCosbyz
I mean its pretty bad when you are 30 years ahead of ***'s own estimate of when they could reach parity with the USA. Most of these polls can typically just be reduced to the % of people who think "Orange bad".

我的意思是，这很不好，你比中国***自己预估的达到与美国平起平坐的时间都提前了30年时。这种民意调查通常可以简化为认为"橙色不好"的人的百分比。
【译注：橙色代指特朗普】

u/Downtown-Brush6940
When was the Chinese estimate made? Before or after Trump took office for his second term? Because he is really expediting this process.

中国的预估是什么时候做出的？在特朗普第二任期上台之前还是之后？因为他真的在加速这个过程。

abu_hajarr
What's funny about that is my Chinese National friend was talking about EV cars when I was there saying they were terrible until Tesla transferred technology there a few years ago to increase production. So now they're leveraging Tesla technology to build a bunch of government supported competing brands.
I also listened to a podcast interviewing a guy who wrote a book about Apple and China. Basically Apple transferred technology first to Taiwan, and then to China to increase production. Basically the Chinese phone factories will do an iPhone campaign for 6 months and then they'll modify it for their own brands and make those afterwards. Apple has made 22 trillion or something in investments into China for this manufacturing technology and training.
It's US companies handing over the means of production to China

有趣的是，我的中国朋友谈到，直到几年前特斯拉转移技术到那里增加产量之前，中国的电动汽车都很糟糕，所以现在他们正利用特斯拉的技术来建设一堆政府支持的竞争品牌。
我还听了一个播客采访一个写了关于苹果和中国的书的人。基本上，苹果先把技术转移到台湾（地区），然后再到中国来增加产量。基本上中国的手机工厂会做6个月的iPhone宣传活动，然后他们会将它改造为自己的品牌，然后继续生产。苹果已经在中国投资了22万亿美元左右，用于制造技术和培训。

美国公司就是这样把生产方法交给中国的.

u/WhichNegotiation3670
That's a classic joke. In China, we call it 'tech that's only open-sourced in Simplified Chinese.' You get what I mean.

这是个经典的笑话。在中国，我们称之为"仅有简中开源版的技术"，你懂我的意思。

abu_hajarr
Yes I got the joke when I discovered new EV brands everyday. I'm curious to see where it's going... will most of them collapse? Is it sustainable? It looked like the government decided EV cars was the new economic stimulation instead of construction like it has been the past several decades

是的，当我每天都发现新电动汽车品牌时我明白了这个笑话。我好奇地想看看它的发展方向...它们大多数会倒闭吗？这可持续吗？看起来政府决定发展电动汽车是新的经济刺激，以替代过去几十年的建筑业.