美国是否正在输掉与伊朗的战争？

Chris Everett
克里斯·埃弗里特

Iran has lost basically it’s entire Navy, a substantial percentage (~75%) of their missile launch capability, likely whatever remained of their air force, and much of it’s senior political leadership.

伊朗基本上已经损失了其整个海军、相当大比例（约75%）的导弹发射能力，可能还包括其剩余的空军力量，以及其大部分高级政治领导层。

The US has lost six service members and three F-15 fighters.

美国已损失六名军人和三架F-15战斗机。

Around the region, maybe a total of 20 civilians have been killed by Iranian strikes as of this writing.

截至本文撰写时，伊朗的袭击可能已造成该地区大约20名平民死亡。

These deaths are of course tragic, but let’s remember that Iran’s proxies in Yemen and Saudi Arabia have been fighting a war that has apparently exceeded 377,000 dead from 2015.

这些死亡事件无疑是悲剧，但让我们记住，伊朗在也门和沙特阿拉伯的代理人一直在进行一场战争，据称自2015年以来已造成超过37.7万人死亡。

Or that the Syrian civil war, largely funded by Iran, led to the deaths of nearly 700,000.

或者，主要由伊朗资助的叙利亚内战导致了近70万人死亡。

Or the thousands dead due to constant Iranian supported insurgencies in Iraq.

或者由于伊朗持续支持的伊拉克叛乱活动而死亡的数千人。

Or the Iranian sponsored Gaza war and all the deaths that have happened there.

或者伊朗支持的加沙战争以及那里发生的所有死亡。

Or the tens of thousands dead the the Iranian regime killed only weeks ago.

或者就在数周前被伊朗政权杀害的数万死者。

Iran, the IRGC, and the mullahs have been at least partially responsible for an absolutely massive percentage of the suffering that the middle east has endured over nearly fifty years, due to their network of proxies, or generally just meddling with virtually anyone in an apparent effort to destabilize the region.

伊朗、伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队以及毛拉们，在近五十年来中东地区所承受的巨大苦难中，至少负有部分责任。这源于他们通过代理人网络，或普遍干涉几乎所有人的事务，显然旨在破坏该地区的稳定。

And near fifty years later, the “it’s the fault of the US because of the Shah” runs rather thin as an excuse for decades of violence, death, and suffering that the mullahs revel in.

近五十年过去了，将‘这都是因为美国支持过沙阿的错’作为借口，来为毛拉们所沉醉的数十年的暴力、死亡与苦难开脱，这种说辞已显得相当苍白无力。

Colin Riegels
科林·里格尔斯

Honestly, I am not even sure how we define winning or losing in this particular conflict.

说实话，我甚至不确定我们如何定义这场特定冲突中的胜败。

If this was some kind of video game, and we were comparing relative losses, then clearly Iran is getting destroyed - it has lost far more men, ships, aircraft and other materiel. The losses to the US so far are extremely light - borderline non-existent.

如果这是一场电子游戏，我们在比较相对损失，那么显然伊朗正在被摧毁——它损失了更多的人员、舰船、飞机和其他物资。而美国迄今为止的损失极为轻微，几乎可以说是不存在。

But life is not a video game, and all three sides have military obxtives.

但生活并非电子游戏，三方都怀有军事目标。

For Iran the obxtive is clear - survive. So far they are doing that, although I don’t think anyone would claim it is going well.

对伊朗而言，目标很明确——生存下去。迄今为止，他们确实还在坚持，尽管我认为没人会声称局势进展顺利。

For Israel the obxtive is also clear - degrade and destroy as much Iranian military capability whilst you have the US willing to spend taxpayers’ money doing so. The Israelis are clearly the big winners right now.

对以色列而言，目标同样明确——在美国愿意动用纳税人资金的情况下，尽可能削弱并摧毁伊朗的军事能力。目前以色列显然成为了最大赢家。

For the US - we still have no idea what the goal is. Various different goals have been articulated at different times. Is regime change? Is it stopping an Iranian bomb? Is it stabilising the Gulf? Nobody seems to know - least of all the Americans.

对于美国而言，我们仍然不清楚其目标是什么。在不同的时期，人们表达了各种不同的目标。是政权更迭吗？是阻止伊朗拥有核武器吗？还是稳定海湾地区？似乎没有人知道——尤其是美国人自己。

So whilst it is hard to say that the Americans are “winning” in the sense of any realistic war goals, equally I’d struggle to say that they are “losing”. Even the Iranian “horizontal” strategy to try and cause maximum economic pain globally doesn’t seem to be playing out for them yet.

因此，虽然很难说美国人在任何现实的战争目标意义上正在“获胜”，但同样地，我也很难说他们正在“失败”。即使是伊朗试图在全球范围内造成最大经济痛苦的“横向”战略，目前似乎也尚未对他们产生预期效果。

Tim Cole
蒂姆·科尔

I see what you’re saying, but I don’t see how these actions will change the regime to anything the rest of the world would want to see. Decapitation just gives the next bunch waiting in the shadows a chance to seize power, and I don’t see any of them being any better than previous bunch. Sure, the US and Israel have neutered one ayatollah, but there are plenty more of them. Expecting the citizenry to do the job isn’t realistic, and but even if it did work, you can’t automatically expect them to install a US-friendly government. Democracy is not a default condition.

我明白你的意思，但我不认为这些行动会让这个政权变成世界上其他国家愿意看到的样子。斩首行动只是给了潜伏在暗处的下一批人夺取政权的机会，而我看不出他们中有谁会比之前那批人更好。当然，美国和以色列已经让一位阿亚图拉失去了影响力，但这样的人还有很多。指望民众来完成这项任务是不现实的，而且即使成功了，你也不能自动指望他们会建立一个亲美政府。民主并不是默认状态。

It’s not possible to force Iran to become pliable to American will solely by airpower. An invasion would drop the US into a quagmire that would dwarf the problems faced in Afghanistan — but without any allies to absorb some of the butcher’s bill. I really don’t see how this can turn into an American win. What it can turn into is a big win for oil companies. With crude oil prices going into the stratosphere, it becomes reasonable to extract and refine Venezuelan crude.

仅凭空中力量不可能迫使伊朗顺从美国的意志。一旦入侵，美国将陷入比阿富汗问题更为严重的泥潭，且没有任何盟友能分担部分伤亡代价。我实在看不出这如何能成为美国的胜利。这反倒可能成为石油公司的大胜。随着原油价格飙升至天价，开采和提炼委内瑞拉原油变得有利可图。

Luis M. González
路易斯·M·冈萨雷斯

There are many reasons to dislike Trump, especially if you're American, and I personally find him quite cringy. But at the end of his term, I'll judge the man by what he did while in charge and the results.

有很多理由不喜欢特朗普，尤其是如果你是美国人的话，我个人也觉得他相当令人尴尬。但在他任期结束时，我会根据他执政期间的作为和结果来评判这个人。

You should have seen the thousands of Venezuelans gathered in the very center of Buenos Aires to celebrate the capture of Maduro. It was beautiful. While the left cry foul and talk about “international law”, Venezuelans celebrate.

你应该看到成千上万的委内瑞拉人聚集在布宜诺斯艾利斯市中心庆祝马杜罗被捕的场景。那场面真是美极了。当左派还在哭诉不公、大谈“国际法”时，委内瑞拉人却在欢庆。

Cubans are waiting in line, praying that Trump doesn't get distracted by other issues.

古巴人正在排队等候，祈祷特朗普不会被其他问题分散注意力。

And a world without the fucking Ayathollas is definitely a better world, no doubt.

毫无疑问，一个没有那些该死的阿亚图拉的世界绝对是一个更好的世界。

Hats off to him and his sidekicks so far.

到目前为止，他和他的助手们干得漂亮。

And that doesn't mean that he's no longer an orange baboon with the vocabulary of a five year old and a past record as a businessman that doesn't paint him well. But I don't care.

但这并不意味着他就不再是一个有着五岁孩童词汇量、商业记录不佳的橙色狒狒了。不过我不在乎。

The guy’s acting. He's not joking.

这家伙是认真的。他不是在开玩笑。

Mark Allen Myers
马克·艾伦·迈尔斯

“But wait!” you say. “We’ve been cleaning the Iranians’ clocks! We killed their supreme leader, a whole bunch of other top guys, and have pummeled lots of other stuff for good measure! And so far we’ve only lost (checks notes) six guys! SIX GUYS! How can you possibly say we’re losing?”

“等等！”你说，“我们一直在狠狠打击伊朗人！我们干掉了他们的最高领袖，还有一大堆其他高层人物，还顺便痛击了许多其他目标！而目前为止我们只损失了（查看记录）六个人！才六个人！你怎么能说我们输了呢？”

Because—and this is something so many people don’t understand and yet is so important—WARS AREN’T ABOUT KILL COUNTS. WARS ARE ABOUT POLITICS. Accomplishing a political goal is the entire point of the exercise. If you go in with an unrealistic political goal, you’re doomed to failure no matter how much better you are at blowing stuff up. And that’s precisely what Trump’s done. He’s actually stated point-blank that he wants to personally choose Iran’s next leader, and the fact that such an individual would be Trump’s choice is automatically going to make them radioactive to the Iranian people. Long-term, the locals always win these fights.

因为——这一点许多人未能理解却至关重要——战争并非关乎杀伤数量。战争关乎政治。实现政治目标才是整场行动的全部意义。若你带着不切实际的政治目标介入，无论你摧毁事物的能力多强，都注定失败。而这正是特朗普的所作所为。他竟直言不讳地表示要亲自选定伊朗的下一任领导人，且此人既由特朗普选定，就必然会被伊朗人民视为危险异类。长远来看，本土力量终将赢得这类斗争。

Jan Meyer
扬·迈尔

The US cannot lose this war because its mainland is not even within range of the conflict.

美国不会输掉这场战争，因为其本土甚至不在冲突的射程之内。

At the same time the US has to perform well or suffer severe damage to its reputation.

与此同时，美国必须表现出色，否则其声誉将遭受严重损害。

There is also the problem that Trump seems to just have triggered a worldwide energy crisis (one of the reasons why prior administrations decided not to mess around with the nation capable of embargoing a sizable chunk of the world oil production) which is going to get worse the longer the war goes on.

此外，还存在一个问题，即特朗普似乎已经引发了一场全球能源危机（这是前任政府决定不招惹那个有能力对全球相当一部分石油产量实施禁运的国家的原因之一），而且战争持续越久，情况将越糟糕。

This in turn is likely to damage Trump’s standing at home to the point of costing him his coalition.

这反过来可能会损害特朗普在国内的地位，甚至可能让他失去其联盟的支持。

We are in the strange situation where the Iranian Regime might, despite horrible casualties, survive this war and even come out stronger (if the theocracy hangs on, opposition will be extremely unpopular for a long time, given that they can be accused, with some truthfulness, of having brought fire and blood to Iran) while it might lead to seismic political shifts in America.

我们正处在一个奇怪的局面中：伊朗政权可能在这场战争中幸存下来，甚至变得更加强大（如果神权体制得以维持，反对派将在很长一段时间内极不受欢迎，因为他们可以被指责——某种程度上也是事实——给伊朗带来了战火与流血），而这场战争却可能在美国引发政治格局的地震性变化。

This is the case because, ironically, the US has so little at stake, making much smaller setbacks utterly unacceptable, while Iran is fighting for its survival both as a regime and as a country (balkanization seems to be preferred option at least of Israel) which means that barely any setback is severe enough to end resistance.

这是因为，讽刺的是，美国在此事上几乎毫无利害关系，导致即使是微小的挫折也变得完全无法接受；而伊朗则在为政权和国家的存亡而战（至少以色列似乎更倾向于选择肢解伊朗的方案），这意味着几乎没有哪种挫折足以严重到终结其抵抗。

Jon Mixon
乔恩·米克森

This isn’t a high school football game or a session of Call of Duty, querent.

这不是一场高中足球赛，也不是一局《使命召唤》，提问者。

No one ‘wins” or “loses” wars this quickly or decisively.

没有人能够如此迅速或决定性地‘赢得’或‘输掉’战争。

American and Israel military strikes seem to be destroying much of Iran’s offensive military capability. -However it still has plenty of defensive capability and 90 million people about a 1/3 of whom are under 25. If we go onshore, things might get really ugly, really quick.

美国和以色列的军事打击似乎正在摧毁伊朗大部分进攻性军事能力。-然而，伊朗仍拥有大量防御能力，以及9000万人口，其中约三分之一年龄在25岁以下。如果我们登陆作战，局势可能会迅速变得非常糟糕。

Iran’s nuclear program isn’t just its facilities - It has several thousand scientists and engineers all of who would need to be accounted for if the “goal” is to end the program - At best, excluding Iran purchasing finished technology from North Korea, in a decade or less Iran could be back on track for a nuclear device.

伊朗的核计划不仅仅涉及设施——它拥有数千名科学家和工程师，如果“目标”是终止该计划，所有这些人员都需要被妥善安置。最乐观的情况是，即使排除伊朗从朝鲜购买成品技术的可能性，在十年或更短时间内，伊朗仍可能重新走上研发核装置的道路。

Iran controls the Persian Gulf and especially the Straits of Hormuz. - We can camp two aircraft carriers in the region for a century and yet still be confronted geographical constants. If they want the war to revert to sinking vessels (or threatening to sink them) and making itself economically less viable, they can at any time.

伊朗控制着波斯湾，尤其是霍尔木兹海峡。我们可以在该地区部署两个航空母舰战斗群长达一个世纪，但仍然无法改变地理上的既定现实。如果他们想让战争退回到击沉船只（或威胁击沉船只）并使自身经济可行性降低的状态，他们随时都可以这样做。

Asymmetric warfare - Nobody seems to be discussing this, but Iran still has a number of assets throughout the world and 1970s-1990s acts of terror are still quite possible. If Iran really begins to “lose” I would suggest that people consider not flying for a while and stay away from mass gatherings for a while.

非对称战争——似乎没有人讨论这一点，但伊朗在世界各地仍拥有不少资产，1970年代至1990年代的恐怖行为仍很有可能发生。如果伊朗真的开始“失利”，我建议人们考虑暂时不要乘坐飞机，并暂时远离大型集会。

Cyber warfare - Iran has been building up its cyber capabilities for a few decades now and if they decide to unleash them on the West, especially the United States, then “winning” becomes a meaningless concept. Even the threat to do so could roil world financial markets which are already taking a hit from higher energy prices and concerns about terrorism.

网络战——伊朗几十年来一直在建设其网络能力，如果他们决定对西方，尤其是美国发动网络攻击，那么“胜利”这个概念将变得毫无意义。即便只是威胁这样做，也可能扰乱全球金融市场，这些市场已经因能源价格上涨和恐怖主义担忧而受到冲击。

If you believe that 'victory' consists of Iran no longer being able to fire missiles and launch aircraft, then 'victory' is likely a few weeks away,

如果你认为“胜利”意味着伊朗不再能够发射导弹和起飞飞机，那么“胜利”可能就在几周之内。

If you’re dealing in obxtive realities, then you’ll be concerned that Iran will show the United States (and Israel) why attacking it was a mistake that it will take DECADES to correct.

如果你谈论的是客观现实，那么你应该担心伊朗会向美国（以及以色列）证明，攻击它是个错误，这个错误需要几十年时间才能纠正。

Trumpers are Traitors

特朗普支持者是叛徒

Politically “not winning” is losing. You have lost a great deal of respect..your leader confuses respect with fear but most people don't do that. You have lost the support and respect of the Trump friends in the Gulf States. You have further alienated why were your friends. You have helped the Russians which you will regret. You have proven that your much vaunted system of democracy is disfunctional and does not represent the people.The two supposed representative bodies of Congress do not care about constituent interest. They only serve their own as collective bodies. You may regard that as a win but most outsiders don't do that.

政治上“不赢”就是输。你已经失去了大量的尊重……你们的领导人将尊重与恐惧混为一谈，但大多数人并不这样认为。你已经失去了海湾国家特朗普朋友们的支持与尊重。你还进一步疏远了曾经的朋友。你帮助了俄罗斯人，这将会让你后悔。你已经证明了你那备受吹捧的民主制度是失灵的，并不能代表人民。国会这两个所谓的代表机构并不关心选民的利益。它们只是作为集体机构服务于自身。你可能认为这是一种胜利，但大多数局外人并不这么看。

One achievement..you have broken several records in rapid destructive air attacks underlining the mess and brutality of warfare but I would forget about peace prizes.

一项成就...你在快速毁灭性空袭中打破多项纪录，突显了战争的混乱与残酷，但我认为和平奖就不必考虑了。

Trumpers are Traitors

特朗普支持者是叛徒

USA attacked with no warning.

美国在毫无预警的情况下发动了攻击。

USA is going against the conventions of war, Rules from the past on HOW war Should be done. Like NOT blowing up Civilians. Military vs Military ONLY.

美国正在违背战争惯例，即过去关于战争应如何进行的规则，例如不轰炸平民，只进行军事对军事的行动。

Those in Charge of the war for the USA, HAVE NO EXPERIENCE with war.

负责美国战争事务的人员，缺乏战争经验。

WE were NOT invited to this war. We jumped in for NO REASON.

我们并未被邀请参与这场战争。我们毫无理由地卷入了其中。

Israel, Started 2 wars. Then we Jumped in? WHY

以色列发动了两场战争。然后我们介入了？为什么？

Trump is doing something he should not. He is already considering taking over the Land that belongs to Palistein. To Use as a Hotel on the beach. This is a President doing personal Business ON PUBLIC TIME.

特朗普正在做他不应该做的事情。他已经在考虑接管属于巴勒斯坦的土地，打算在海滩上建造酒店。这是一位总统在公共时间处理个人业务。

What are the odds, we could settle most of this by Bombing Israel? They started it, and Pissed off All the Muslim nations around them. INCLUDING the Saudi Prince, Who TRUMP loves, because of an Airplane, He cant keep.

这是何等的可能性，我们能否通过轰炸以色列来解决大部分问题？他们挑起了事端，并惹恼了周围所有的穆斯林国家。包括沙特王子，特朗普因为一架他保不住的飞机而喜欢他。

1 Bomb is worth MORE then your house and maybe More then the Properties on 1 City Block. Start at $10,000 and go up fast.

一枚炸弹的价值超过你的房子，甚至可能超过一个街区的所有房产。起价10,000美元，并且价格会迅速攀升。

Missiles.? Bomb x100 in Cost.

导弹？成本中的炸弹 x100。

Ships, planes, Personel, Fighters? 1 plane to keep it in the air and Maintained, is over $100,000 per day.

舰船、飞机、人员、战斗机？仅一架飞机要保持其飞行状态并进行维护，每天的费用就超过10万美元。

PS, ask the middle EAST Saudi’s How much FUEL COSTS when you are Fighting against THEIR PEOPLE,.

PS，问一下中东沙特，当你们与本国人民作战时，燃料成本是多少。

You really like HIGH gas prices?

你真的很喜欢高涨的油价吗？

NOW since Trump is NOT following the conventions of War, is it FAIR for Those we are fighting to Fight back Equally? BE AWARE, we are talking about the 2nd largest religious base. Muslims are Around the world and many Races.

既然特朗普不遵循战争惯例，那么我们的对手以同等方式反击是否公平？请注意，我们谈论的是第二大宗教群体。穆斯林遍布全球，包含多个种族。

Do you think the Bombings(in the USA) from the 1990’s were FAIR? How about 9/11? DO YOU REALLY want to START that war again? That war Almost bankrupted the USA. WE are still paying off the Loans from other countries..

你认为美国20世纪90年代的爆炸事件是公平的吗？那9/11事件呢？你真的想再次发动那场战争吗？那场战争几乎让美国破产。我们仍在偿还其他国家的贷款。

Trumpers are Traitors

特朗普支持者是叛徒

The US has an unbroken track record of faliures in the Middle East since they deposed Irans democratically elected leader Mossadeq in 1953 and replaced him with a puppet.

美国在中东地区有着一长串失败记录，自1953年推翻伊朗民选领导人摩萨台并代之以傀儡政权以来，其失败轨迹从未中断。

Doesn’t matter that the US some times have been able to prop up a dictatorship for a number of years - sooner or later those always fall and the US is faced with the consequences of it's action.

尽管美国有时能够扶持一个独裁政权多年，但迟早这些政权总会垮台，而美国也将面临其行为所带来的后果。

Trump has even less of a clue and a plan then previous US administrations so he certainly won’t do any better.

特朗普比以往的美国政府更缺乏头绪和计划，因此他肯定也不会做得更好。

No matter how much bombs he drops now or if he manages to prop up some puppet to his liking it won’t last and the US will eventually pay the price for what it does today.

无论他现在投下多少炸弹，或者是否成功扶植起合他心意的傀儡政权，这一切都不会长久，美国终将为其今日所为付出代价。

Just as in the previous 70 odd years.

正如过去七十多年来的情况一样。

Trumpers are Traitors

特朗普的支持者是叛国者

We aren't accomplishing our Social and Political Agenda. But militarily we are winning at tremendous economic cost to the entire planet.

我们未能实现我们的社会和政治议程。但在军事上，我们正在以整个星球巨大的经济代价取得胜利。

But hey, when you don't properly plan. And you allow yourself to be Israel's proxy to land grab. You over look a lot of details. Maybe a 25% Tariff on Iran will make it all better… sarcasm.

但是，当你没有妥善规划，并且让自己成为以色列侵占土地的代理人时，你会忽略很多细节。也许对伊朗征收25%的关税就能解决所有问题……（讽刺）

To the British KEEP THE DRAGON at Home. You only have 6 type 45's the new type 83 isn't ready. And the old type 43's are too damn old.

致英国人：把龙留在家里。你们只有6艘45型驱逐舰，新型83型还没准备好，而旧的43型实在太老了。

On another note, Putin will enjoy the extra REVENUE to keep his Special Military Operation in Ukraine afloat.

另一方面，普京将获得额外的收入来维持其在乌克兰的特别军事行动。

That's what Allies are ACTUALLY FOR. Help you when needed. America under Trump only wants to gain for ITS OWN AGENDA. Starmer, America doesn't need your help. Why cost share a conflict with no ECONOMIC gain to your people.

这就是盟友真正存在的意义——在你需要时伸出援手。特朗普领导下的美国只顾谋求自身议程的利益。斯塔默，美国不需要你的帮助。为何要共同承担一场对你的人民毫无经济收益的冲突成本？

To the Sunni Muslim World, time to invest in Lebanon not to fight the Jews. But to REBUILD it giving those people a reason to kick Hezbollah out. Either that or everyone send a Brigade and tell Israel GET THE FUCK OUT AND TAKE HEZBOLLAH with you.

致逊尼派穆斯林世界，现在是投资黎巴嫩的时候了，不是为了与犹太人作战，而是为了重建它，给那些人民一个理由将真主党赶出去。要么这样做，要么每个国家都派遣一个旅，并告诉以色列：赶紧滚蛋，带上真主党一起走。

No more land grabbing, and if you don't feel comfortable living around us. Go back to EUROPE it isnt the 1940's there anymore.

不再侵占土地，如果你觉得和我们生活在一起不舒服，那就回欧洲去吧，那里早已不是1940年代的样子了。

To Iran, go study how Turkey makes it work. And APPLY it.

对于伊朗，去研究土耳其是如何使其运作的。然后应用它。

To America, had we given the Kurds 10% of the support we give Israel. Peace in the Middle East would of been accomplished 30 years ago.

如果美国给予库尔德人我们给予以色列的10%的支持，中东的和平早在30年前就已经实现了。

Bobby McKellar
博比·麦凯勒

Well, first of all it’s not really a “war”, just the same as the strike on Venezuela was not a war.

嗯，首先这并不真的是一场“战争”，就像对委内瑞拉的打击也不算是战争一样。

Next, we’re barely a week into the targeted strikes. Iran’s navy and air force is combat ineffective and basically destroyed. Iran has already stopped firing drones and missiles randomly at other Gulf States, saying “we’re sorry, we won’t do that anymore unless you attack us.” Basically admitting that they overplayed their hand and turned any possible support from other Muslim majority states/nations into anger. They’re trying at the highest levels of government to “put Humpty Dumpty back together again”, but it’s a feeble attempt to retain power and maintain relevance.

接下来，我们距离实施定点打击仅过去一周。伊朗的海军和空军已丧失作战能力，基本被摧毁。伊朗已停止向其他海湾国家随意发射无人机和导弹，并表示'我们很抱歉，除非你们攻击我们，否则我们不会再这样做。'这基本上承认了他们过度使用武力，并将其他穆斯林占多数的国家可能给予的支持转变为愤怒。他们正在政府最高层面努力'将碎掉的鸡蛋重新拼凑起来'，但这不过是维持权力和保持影响力的软弱尝试。

This will not stop until the despotic government is out of power and the Iranian people themselves are able to regain control of their government and their own destinies. So, no, the U.S., Israel and the allied forces involved are in no way losing this at all. It’s just barely begun.

除非专制政府下台，伊朗人民自己能够重新掌控他们的政府和自己的命运，否则这不会停止。所以，不，美国、以色列以及参与其中的盟军绝不会输掉这场斗争。这仅仅是个开始。

In less than a week, the United States and Israel dropped more than 6000 bombs and struck thousands of Iranian targets, eliminated the initial Iranian political and military leadership, damaged nuclear facilities, practically destroyed Iran’s air force and navy, suppressed about 80% of Iran’s air defense systems and gained control of Iranian airspace, destroyed around 300 Iranian missile launchers, and reduced the scale of Iranian ballistic missile launches from 504 missiles in 24 hours to 25 missiles in 24 hours. Can this be called the Americans losing? I doubt it. Rather, they are winning even faster than initially expected.

在不到一周的时间里，美国和以色列投下了超过6000枚炸弹，打击了数千个伊朗目标，消灭了伊朗最初的政治和军事领导层，破坏了核设施，几乎摧毁了伊朗的空军和海军，压制了约80%的伊朗防空系统并控制了伊朗领空，摧毁了大约300个伊朗导弹发射器，并将伊朗弹道导弹的发射规模从24小时内的504枚导弹减少到24小时内的25枚导弹。这能被称为美国人输了吗？我对此表示怀疑。相反，他们赢得的甚至比最初预期的还要快。

Trumpers are Traitors

特朗普的支持者是叛徒

The war in Iran is not going well for the United States, but thinking of it as a possible U.S. win or loss is a misdirection. The real conflict was with Israel in the struggle for control of our policies in the Middle East. We have already lost that battle, probably because Netanyahu used Compromat that he got from Epstein, strategically timed for when Trump’s many policy failures had started a tailspin of political vulnerability.

伊朗战争对美国而言进展不顺，但将其视为美国可能赢或输是一种误导。真正的冲突是与以色列争夺对我们中东政策的控制权。我们已经输掉了那场战斗，很可能是因为内塔尼亚胡利用了从爱泼斯坦那里获得的黑材料，其战略时机选择在特朗普多项政策失败已开始引发政治脆弱性螺旋式下降之时。

Trump surrendered to Israel. They took over our military, and are now using it for their purposes. Iran is being weakened militarily, which is Israel's stated security goal. (Of course, the underlying obxtive is keeping Netanyahu in office and out of jail.) In any case, American involvement in this war in Iran, which neither Democrats nor Republicans wanted, is best understood as the consequence of our prior loss to Israel behind the scenes.

特朗普向以色列屈服了。他们接管了我们的军队，并正在将其用于他们的目的。伊朗的军事实力正在被削弱，这是以色列公开宣称的安全目标。（当然，其深层目的是让内塔尼亚胡保住职位，免于入狱。）无论如何，美国卷入这场与伊朗的战争——这是民主党人和共和党人都不希望看到的——最好被理解为我们在幕后先输给以色列的后果。

Expect further deaths, economic losses, and weakening U.S. influence to follow, at least until Democrats defeat Republicans in the midterms, rip the lid off the Epstein cover-up, and impeach, convict, and remove the president. Or Trump's deteriorating physical and mental conditions could lead to his death or removal by the 25th Amendment. That could work too…unless Israel also has Compromat on Vance (or the people who pull his strings).

预计接下来将出现更多死亡、经济损失以及美国影响力减弱的情况，这种情况至少会持续到民主党在中期选举中击败共和党，揭开爱泼斯坦丑闻的盖子，并对总统进行弹劾、定罪和罢免。或者，特朗普日益恶化的身心状况可能导致其死亡或被根据宪法第25修正案罢免。这也可能奏效……除非以色列也掌握了万斯（或操控他的人）的把柄。