伊朗战争令人不安的导弹消耗战

Four days into [war with Iran](https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump-03-03-26), at least one of the United States’ Gulf allies is already running low on crucial interceptor munitions used to defend against Iranian missile and drone attacks, two sources told CNN.
That mirrors concern across the region, including in Israel, about the stockpile of weapons needed to defend against Iranian attacks, especially as President Donald Trump has floated an extended timeline for the campaign.
Qatar has enough interceptors for a long period of time but is still in touch with the US military’s Central Command in case the Qataris need to ask for more interceptors, a Qatari source told CNN, declining to specify what that time period was.
 
两位消息人士向CNN透露，在[与伊朗的战争]进入第四天之际，美国至少有一个海湾盟国用于防御伊朗导弹和无人机袭击的关键拦截弹药库存已经告急。
这反映了包括以色列在内的整个地区，对防御伊朗袭击所需武器库存的普遍担忧，特别是在唐纳德·特朗普总统暗示将延长军事行动时间表的情况下。
一位卡塔尔消息人士告诉CNN，卡塔尔目前拥有足以支撑很长一段时间的拦截弹，但仍在与美军中央司令部保持联系，以防需要索要更多拦截弹。该消息人士拒绝透露具体的“很长一段时间”是指多久。
 
Before the war began, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine and other military leaders warned Trump that a protracted military campaign could impact US weapons stockpiles – particularly those that support Israel and Ukraine, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter.
The US has been “burning” through long-range precision-guided missiles over the last several days, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Now that the war is expanding, it’s a numbers game: How many interceptors will the US and its regional allies need to continuously shoot down Iranian missiles and how many, if any, of those weapons will need to be redirected from other stockpiles earmarked for US forces in the Pacific? US rivals like China will be watching closely.
 
据多位知情人士透露，在战争爆发前，参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军及其他军方高层就曾警告特朗普，旷日持久的军事行动可能会影响美国的武器库存——尤其是那些用于支持以色列和乌克兰的库存。
一位知情人士透露，过去几天里，美国一直在“疯狂消耗”远程精确制导导弹。
随着战争规模的扩大，这已经变成了一场关于数字的博弈：美国及其地区盟友到底需要多少拦截弹才能持续击落伊朗的导弹？如果需要的话，又有多少武器必须从原定拨给太平洋美军的库存中调拨过来？中国等美国的竞争对手正密切关注着这一切。
 
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that Iran is “producing, by some estimates, over 100 of these missiles a month. Compare that to the six or seven interceptors that can be built a month.”
“Wars can be fought ‘forever,’ and very successfully, using just these supplies,” Trump continued. He didn’t specify exactly which munitions he was referring to.
“We have severely degraded Iran’s air defenses and destroyed hundreds of Iran’s ballistic missiles, launchers and drones,” the head of US Central Command said.
 
国务卿马可·卢比奥表示，伊朗“据估计每月能生产100多枚此类导弹。相比之下，我们每个月只能造出六到七枚拦截弹。”
“仅靠这些库存，战争就可以‘永远’打下去，而且会打得非常成功，”特朗普继续说道。他并没有具体说明他指的是哪些弹药。
美国中央司令部司令表示：“我们已经严重削弱了伊朗的防空系统，摧毁了他们数百枚弹道导弹、发射装置和无人机。”
 
The immediate concern is the stock of defensive weapons held by Gulf allies, not the US. In the war’s early days, Gulf countries such as Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have in general tried to shoot down every missile or drone from Iran. The munitions crunch might force a change in tactics for Gulf countries, according to Becca Wasser, defense lead for Bloomberg Economics, who said that eventually they may have to become “more sextive” in what they target.
Even a relatively short war can significantly deplete the American missile supplies: The US blew through [about a quarter of its supply](https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/28/middleeast/us-thaad-missile-interceptor-shortage-intl-invs) of high-end Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, missile interceptors during[Israel’s 12-day war with Iran](https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/30/politics/iran-israel-military-success-path-diplomacy-analysis) last June, thwarting attacks at a rate that vastly outpaces production.
 
目前的当务之急是海湾盟国（而非美国）手中的防御性武器库存。在战争爆发的头几天，巴林、卡塔尔、阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯等海湾国家总体上在试图击落来自伊朗的每一枚导弹或每一架无人机。彭博经济研究公司的防务主管贝卡·瓦塞尔（Becca Wasser）表示，弹药紧缺可能会迫使海湾国家改变战术，他们最终可能不得不在拦截目标上变得“更具选择性”。
即使是一场相对较短的战争，也会大幅消耗美国的导弹库存：在去年6月[以色列与伊朗为期12天的战争]中，美国消耗了其高端的末端高空区域防御系统（即“萨德”）[大约四分之一的拦截弹库存]，其实际消耗速度远远超过了生产速度。
 
##See also:
*[U.S. and Allies Encounter Iran’s Arsenal of Drones · The Pentagon and Middle Eastern countries say that most of the drones have been intercepted. But some have slipped through and caused damage.](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/us/politics/us-iran-drones.html) (New York Times)
*[Trapped Between U.S. and Iran, Gulf Countries Face Nightmare Scenario · The energy-rich nations that sought to avert the American-Israeli war on Iran have been sucked into the spiraling conflict.](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/world/middleeast/iran-us-israel-war-persian-gulf.html) (New York Times)
* [Israel sends troops into southern Lebanon as Hezbollah says it is ready for ‘open war’](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-israel-hezbollah-airstrikes-beirut-rockets-troops-f3b27b80b54699f58deebf35c7b09fd2) (Associated Press)
 
## 另请参阅：
*[美国及其盟友遭遇伊朗的无人机军火库 · 五角大楼和中东国家表示大部分无人机已被拦截，但仍有部分漏网之鱼并造成了破坏。]（《纽约时报》）
*[夹在美伊之间，海湾国家面临噩梦般的场景 · 曾试图避免美以对伊开战的能源富国，如今已被卷入不断升级的冲突之中。]（《纽约时报》）
*[以色列派兵进入黎巴嫩南部，真主党称已准备好迎接“全面战争”]（美联社）
 
FederalSandwich1854
One thing I don't see enough people talking about is the loss of the AN/FPS-132 radar in Qatar, $1.1 billion system, one of only six in the world just gone. It was the most advanced radar in that combat zone
I could be wrong so someone can doublecheck me but they have an absurdly high number of Shahed drones, like \\\\~80k, and they make like 400 a day. Every day the straight is closed is a financial catastrophe for everyone (I guess except major oil producers). The more this goes on the more I get confused who tf thought this was a good idea???
 
我觉得很少有人在谈论卡塔尔损失的那部AN/FPS-132雷达，这套价值11亿美元的系统可是世界上仅有的六台之一，就这么没了。那可是该战区最先进的雷达。
我可能说得不对，大家可以指正：但伊朗拥有数量惊人的“见证者”无人机，大约有8万架左右，而且他们每天能生产大概400架。海峡被封锁的每一天对所有人来说都是一场金融灾难（我猜大型产油国除外）。这事拖得越久，我就越纳闷，到底是谁他妈觉得打这仗是个好主意？？？
 
plasmaMatus
Evangelicals thinking it was God's will thought it was a good idea.
 
那些认为这是上帝旨意的福音派教徒觉得这是个好主意。
 
jenny_905
Israel think causing this type of chaos is a good idea and were always going to do it eventually. They're nuts.
USA has made it pretty clear they joined in because they were told to.
 
以色列觉得制造这种混乱是个好主意，而且他们本来迟早都会这么干。他们简直疯了。
而美国已经表达得很清楚了，他们之所以参战是因为被要求这么做。
 
SsooooOriginal
Is there something you believe will have people start showing care?
We have a massive coverup happening over an international scandal that involves at minimum the horrific rape of children.
And these divided states and Israel decided starting a war would be a thing to do.
There are historical sites in these areas too that are threatened by this insanity. A radar can be rebuilt at least, but cultural heritage sites that still haven't been excavated and examined can not be.
This all sucks.
 
你觉得有什么事能让人们开始关心这一切吗？
我们正在掩盖一桩至少涉及可怕的强奸儿童丑闻的国际性大事件。
而这些分裂的州和以色列却决定，发动一场战争才是当下该做的事。
这些地区还有许多历史遗迹也受到了这种疯狂行为的威胁。雷达毁了至少还能重建，但那些尚未被发掘和研究的文化遗产一旦被毁，就再也回不来了。
这一切真是糟透了。
 
Yweain
It's a Qatari radar. Why they decided to put 1b radar just 200km from Iranian border and never bothered to spend additional hundred million on two C-RAM and a patriot is anyone's guess.
 
这是卡塔尔的雷达。至于他们为什么决定把价值10亿美元的雷达放在离伊朗边境只有200公里的地方，却懒得再多花一亿美元配两套C-RAM（反火箭炮、火炮和迫击炮系统）和一套“爱国者”系统，这就没人知道了。
 
Old_Wallaby_7461
Radar is sexy, light air defenses aren't
 
雷达看着很酷炫，轻型防空系统则不然。
 
MongolPerson
The most sexy thing is putting expensive equipment in the open where enemies can attack it, but also not defending it. That's super risque.
 
最酷炫的事情莫过于把昂贵的设备暴露在敌人可以直接攻击的空地上，而且还不加设防。这可真是太刺激了。
 
GloriousDawn
Nobody thought about it at all, especially the ones who started it.
 
根本就没人考虑过这个问题，尤其是那些挑起战争的人。
 
macak333
Not to sound wrong but i think they need to go boots on the ground with this
 
这么说可能不太对，但我认为他们必须得派地面部队去解决这个问题。
 
FederalSandwich1854
This is where it also confuses me. Boots on the ground would be required if they planned to do a regime change. But if you read the plans Israel had for Iran (and the middle east region in general), their goal is to essentially fracture the entire country and break the society of Iran and as many other ME nations.
If they wanted regime change though, that wouldn't explain why they're bombing all the politicians, even the reformists, and have also told the Shah guy to go away
 
这也是让我感到困惑的地方。如果他们打算更迭政权，确实需要派驻地面部队。但如果你看过以色列针对伊朗（以及整个中东地区）的计划，他们的核心目标其实是让整个国家分崩离析，摧毁伊朗以及尽可能多的中东国家的社会结构。
如果他们只是想要政权更迭，那就无法解释为什么他们要把所有的政客（甚至包括改革派）都炸死，而且还让那个巴列维国王靠边站。
 
haggerton
Regime change isn't GENOCIDE.
And you know what Israel wants.
 
政权更迭可不是种族灭绝。
而且你心里清楚以色列真正想要的是什么。
 
Hamiltonblewit
Trump and Bibi are incredibly vindictive when it comes to Iran (see all of their discussions about Iran from decades ago) so to them, the huge economic costs is completely worth it since it’s their only main threat in the region nowadays.
Trump is also trying to cement his war time legacy presidency before midterms wreck the Republicans and get rid of America’s main geopolitical adversaries outside of Russia and China.
 
在对待伊朗的问题上，特朗普和内塔尼亚胡的报复心重得可怕（参考他们几十年前关于伊朗的所有言论），所以对他们来说，付出巨大的经济代价完全是值得的，毕竟伊朗是他们如今在该地区唯一的主要威胁。
特朗普也是想在中期选举拖垮共和党之前，巩固自己作为战时总统的政治遗产，并除掉美国在俄罗斯和中国之外的主要地缘政治对手。
 
GloriousDawn
War time legacy ? I thought he was the Peace President ?
 
战时政治遗产？我一直以为他是“和平总统”呢？
 
FederalSandwich1854
"Peace through strength"
"Peace through war"
Some MAGA bs our normal brains would never understand
 
“以实力求和平”
“以战争求和平”
这都是些我们正常人的大脑永远无法理解的MAGA狗屁逻辑。
 
TheIrishBread
Some oil producers like it, the gulf states will be in crisis as if the stockpile they are building isn't destroyed by the end of this they are then stuck with it for a prolonged period of time so as not to crash the price of oil and take a net loss.
 
一些石油生产国倒是喜闻乐见，但海湾国家将陷入危机：如果他们正在积累的石油库存到战争结束时还没有被摧毁，他们将被迫在很长一段时间内积压着这些库存，以免油价崩盘并导致净亏损。
 
MarderFucher
Both the 400 and 80 thousand figure are wholly unrealistic coming from some random ass source.
Russia's huge, VERY visible and known Yelabuga complex currently makes 100-150 Gerans a day. How could Iran make 3-4x times as much?
Also, there are plenty of cheap options in Western arsenal, notably APKWS rockets that cost $22k a pop thus have comparable pricetag to Shaheds, and both the IAF and USF have been employing Apaches to gun down drones much like Ukraine does.
 
无论是每天400架还是总量8万架的数字，都完全是不切实际的，估计是哪个野鸡消息源瞎编的。
俄罗斯那个规模庞大、非常显眼且众所周知的叶拉布加工厂，目前每天也就生产100到150架“天竺葵”。伊朗怎么可能造出3到4倍的数量？
此外，西方武器库中也有很多廉价的应对选项，尤其是APKWS火箭弹，单发成本仅为2.2万美元，价格跟“见证者”无人机差不多。而且以色列空军和美军一直都在使用阿帕奇直升机来击落无人机，就像乌克兰那样。
 
Old_Wallaby_7461
>and they make like 400 a day.
They aren't making any now, the US bombed the factories on night one
 
>而且他们每天大概能生产400架。
他们现在已经停产了，美国在开战的第一晚就炸毁了那些工厂。
 
FederalSandwich1854
These aren't a few large centralised factories making these drones that you can easily identify through satellite imagery. The whole point of Iran's doctrine is specifically to prepare for this scenario. Their entire production of these drones is decentralized throughout the country, likely many many underground facilities, 100s of unidentifiable workshops. Remember all the shahed is just some fiberglass with a lawnmower engine, GPS, and a payload. Im.99% sure you could make one in your garage in a few days.
Do you think Iran just has a big factory that has the Persian equivalent of "RAYTHEON" written on top of it?
 
这些无人机可不是由少数几个大型集中化工厂生产的，你没法通过卫星图像轻易识别出来。伊朗军事学说的核心就是专门为应对这种情况做准备的。他们所有的无人机生产都分散在全国各地，很可能有许许多多的地下设施和数百个无法识别的小作坊。要知道，所有的“见证者”无人机只不过是玻璃纤维、割草机引擎、GPS和有效载荷的组合罢了。我99%确定，你自己在车库里花几天时间就能造出一架来。
你该不会以为伊朗就只有一个大工厂，而且屋顶上还用波斯语写着伊朗版“雷神公司”的招牌吧？
 
PurpleMclaren
Most advanced radar but got taken out by Iranian homemade missles? Are Iran's missles just that advanced??
 
最先进的雷达，结果被伊朗的自制导弹给干掉了？伊朗的导弹真有这么先进吗？？
 
cesaroncalves
No, but they are that many
 
并没有，但架不住他们数量多啊。
 
CorrodedLollypop
The radar is (IIRC) for tracking ballistic missiles, "shitty" suicide drones might be beneath it's detection criteria/ability
 
如果我没记错的话，那款雷达是用来追踪弹道导弹的，那些“破烂”自杀式无人机可能根本达不到它的探测标准，或者超出了它的探测能力范围下限。
 
PurpleMclaren
Seems like a billion dollar paper weight if it cant track a one-way drone the size of a pickup truck.
 
如果它连一架皮卡那么大的单程自杀式无人机都追踪不到，那它看起来就像是个价值十亿美元的昂贵镇纸。
 
CorrodedLollypop
No, it's a billion dollar paperweight if it can't perform the job it was intended for.
Ballistic missiles and low level drones have completely different characteristics.
 
不，只有当它无法完成其设计初衷的工作时，它才是价值十亿美元的镇纸。
弹道导弹和低空无人机有着完全不同的物理特征。
 
_Antitese
they do have some pretty advanced missiles, but they also have a lot of cheap missiles and drones, which can overwhelm stuff. There is also a lot of reports of defensive stuff not working properly, like the THAAD or the patriotic system.
 
他们确实拥有一些相当先进的导弹，但同时也有大量廉价的导弹和无人机，这些足以形成饱和攻击压垮防御。而且也有很多报道指出防御系统未能正常运作，比如萨德或爱国者系统。
 
PurpleMclaren
Not just reports, theres multiple videos every day of patriots failing, or hitting a missle, even twice, and the missle still continued on to its target.
America is not prepared for China or russia
 
不仅仅是报道，每天都有好几段视频显示爱国者系统拦截失败，或者击中了一枚导弹（甚至击中了两次），但那枚导弹依然继续飞向目标。
美国根本没有做好应对中国或俄罗斯的准备。
 
derFensterputzer
It really seems they simply counted on them being able to destroy Irans launch capabilities before their defense capabilities run out. But alright, with djt and netanjahu at the helm reason has left the chat a while ago...
 
看起来他们真的是纯粹指望能在自身的防御能力耗尽之前，摧毁伊朗的发射能力。不过也是，有唐纳德·特朗普和内塔尼亚胡掌舵，理智这种东西早就离家出走了……
 
MyCatIsLenin
I don't think that was even a calculation. They thought a decapitation attack would precipitate a collapse.
They are stupid.
 
我觉得他们甚至连算盘都没打过。他们以为一次斩首行动就能促成（伊朗的）崩溃。
他们蠢透了。
 
Hamiltonblewit
Iran’s missile launches has been significantly reduced so they’re going to be relying a lot more on their drone supply which the gulf states has a good amount of issues with surprisingly enough.
Seems like the strategy was to just bomb Iran enough to cause regime change or disintegration of state function, but with the reports about Kurdish forces being boosted by U.S/Isreali air support in a potential incursion, that sounds like an more effective strategy.
 
伊朗的导弹发射量已经大幅减少，因此他们将更加依赖无人机库存，令人惊讶的是，海湾国家在应对无人机方面存在相当大的问题。
看来战略就是对伊朗进行狂轰滥炸，直到引发政权更迭或国家职能瓦解；但从有关库尔德武装在美国和以色列的空中支援下可能发起入侵的报道来看，这听起来像是一个更有效的策略。
 
studio_bob
That's unclear. Iran's hasn't been launching anything from the east and those assets are apparently untouched. There are also sites where cave entrances were collapsed, temporarily blocking access to systems which nonetheless remain intact. It is a real possibility that a portion of the degradation at present is only temporary.
 
这还不好说。伊朗还没有从东部发射过任何武器，那里部署的资产显然完好无损。而且在一些导弹基地，虽然洞穴入口被炸塌，暂时阻断了与武器系统的连接，但系统本身依然完好无缺。目前火力的减弱很可能只是暂时的。
 
Hamiltonblewit
The U.S is more than aware of where the launchers go to replenish their stockpile. Since they’re likely fortified under natural terrain, they’ll go for the launchers after they leave those locations.
Additionally, there has been more than enough U.S/Isreali strike footages in the West and East regarding those launchers, and there is no reason for them not to use their launchers to send hundreds of missiles into the gulf states if their capabilities are untouched.
 
美国非常清楚这些发射车要去哪里补充弹药。由于它们很可能藏在自然地形下的防御工事里，美军会在这些发射车离开掩体后进行打击。
此外，关于东西部地区的发射车，美国和以色列已经公布了足够多的打击画面；如果伊朗的打击能力真的未受损，他们根本没理由不使用这些发射车向海湾国家发射成百上千枚导弹。
 
discographyA
There is more pain for the US in dragging this out. There is no popular support at home for this war. There is no international coalition. Everyone knows they are running out of $4m missiles at $30k drones isn’t going to last which is when the real pain will begin for Israel and US bases. The US has hung the gulf states out to dry defensively and Iran already getting solid hits.
The US, unsurprisingly, has no goals or strategy in this war. Even Starmer in PMQ’s today said the UK wouldn’t get involved without an actual viable plan. You have Rubio and Johnson admitting the obvious that the US went to war for Israel which will tear apart the MAGA coalition even further.
This is Trump’s “3 day operation” but the US doesn’t get to decide when a war they started ends, especially with Trump admitting Israel keeps killing all the people they wanted to take over the country.
 
拖延这场战争只会给美国带来更多痛苦。这场战争在国内毫无民意支持。也没有组建什么国际联盟。大家都知道，用价值400万美元的导弹去打价值3万美元的无人机是撑不了多久的，一旦拦截弹耗尽，以色列和美国基地真正的苦日子就要来了。美国实质上是在防守端把海湾国家晾在一边任人宰割，而伊朗已经取得了扎实的打击成果。
 
不出所料，美国在这场战争中毫无目标和战略可言。就连斯塔默在今天的首相答问环节中也表示，如果没有切实可行的计划，英国不会介入。你还能看到卢比奥和约翰逊公开承认一个显而易见的事实——美国是为了以色列才发动这场战争的，这将进一步撕裂MAGA联盟。
 
这是特朗普口中的“三天特别行动”，但什么时候结束可轮不到挑起战争的美国来决定，尤其是特朗普还承认，以色列一直在杀死那些他们本指望能接管该国政权的人。
 
Hamiltonblewit
The last paragraph doesn’t make sense since we’ve seen reports all month that the build up is equal to the buildup for Iraq in 2003, does that need further explanation?
The U.S/Isreal has been relying much more on helicopters and aircraft fire to shoot down drone threats, with Isreal’s iron dome itself being a much more effective system for these threats since Isreal basically have no issues with drones compared to the other state actors.
And let’s not act like as if people aren’t lying about Iran’s capability by outright denying the U.S has air superiority over Iran and were adamant their launchers weren’t taken out, losing their ability to fire dozens-hundreds of missiles as they did on Day 1 is a huge blow. They’re still very much in the fight, but let’s try to be factual about it since I’ve seen a lot of AI footage and reused clips on Twitter in pro-Iranian circles.
 
最后一段话根本说不通，因为我们整个月都在看报道说，这次的兵力集结规模等同于2003年伊拉克战争的集结规模，这还需要进一步解释吗？
美国和以色列一直更加依赖直升机和战机火力来击落无人机威胁，而且对于这些威胁来说，以色列的“铁穹”系统本身效率就高得多，与其他国家相比，以色列基本上不太受无人机的困扰。
 
而且大家别装作人们没有在掩盖伊朗能力受损的事实——有人完全否认美国对伊朗拥有制空权，并一口咬定他们的发射装置没有被摧毁。像开战第一天那样失去发射成百上千枚导弹的能力，对他们来说绝对是巨大打击。他们确实仍在坚持战斗，但我们最好还是实事求是一点，因为我在推特上的亲伊朗圈子里，已经看到了大量AI合成的视频和重复使用的旧片段。
 
plasmaMatus
I think Iran is keeping the good stuff and launching cheap drones so that when anti-air missiles are depleted they can use precise missiles on important targets.
And the longer the war lasts, its negative effect will be felt by everyone (the Strait of Hormuz being closed will be a huge problem), putting pressure on Israel and the US.
 
我认为伊朗把好东西都藏了起来，现在只发射廉价的无人机，这样等防空导弹耗尽时，他们就可以用高精度导弹打击重要目标了。
而且战争持续的时间越长，所有人就越能感受到其负面影响（霍尔木兹海峡被封锁将是一个巨大的问题），从而给以色列和美国施加压力。
 
bouguerean
Their strikes have already been strategic about disrupting the gulf businesses which very quickly scares the US. Public pressure is one thing, but business interests friendly to Trump are already nervous and it’s barely a week in.
This entire thing has been like starting a war on the back foot. I don’t agree with it but the lack of foresight alone is embarrassing.
 
他们的打击已经带上了扰乱海湾地区商业的战略意图，这很快就让美国感到了恐慌。公众压力是一回事，但与特朗普交好的商业利益集团已经开始紧张了，而这还不到一个星期呢。
整件事就像是在完全处于被动挨打的情况下发动了一场战争。我不赞同这种做法，单单是这种缺乏远见的表现就足够令人尴尬了。
 
itcheyness
Who would've thought that an administration run by podcasters and right-wing influencers would turn out to be utterly incompetent?
 
谁能想到，一个由播客博主和右翼网红管理的政府，最终会被证明是彻头彻尾的无能呢？
 
Hamiltonblewit
Correct and wrong since while they’re trying to use their cheaper stockpile first, they have more than enough less advanced missiles to only launch a handful in the past few days. They have thousands of these things but can only afford to launch a couple hundred, giving their enemies more respite.
There is practically dozens of fighter jet POVs and drone footage showing U.S/Isreali forces tracking Iranian launchers and destroying them so unless that can be argued against it’s factual to state Iranian missile launchers are just being destroyed at a high rate due to Western air superiority.
 
说得对也不对。因为虽然他们试图先消耗廉价库存，但他们拥有足够多的低端导弹，绝不仅限于过去几天发射的那一小撮。他们有几千枚这种导弹，但只打得出几百枚，这反而让他们的敌人获得了更多的喘息机会。
已经有几十个战斗机第一视角和无人机画面证实了美国/以色列军队正在追踪并摧毁伊朗的发射车。所以，除非你能拿出反证，否则“在西方绝对的制空权下，伊朗的导弹发射装置正在被高速摧毁”这就是个不争的事实。
 
MyCatIsLenin
Particularly dozens? There are missile cities all over Iran. They are buried hundreds is meters below ground.
There is no credible evidence of Iran slowing down at all. Iran is massive, they can hide all over the place.
Those videos you've seen, how do you know they are not just decoys? The Houthis used them to get effect.
The US could not meaningfully destroy Houthis capabilities and the tactics and deception the Houthis used are going to be the same as Iran..
 
才几十个也值得拿出来说？伊朗各地遍布所谓的“导弹城”。它们都深埋在地下数百米处。
根本没有任何可靠证据表明伊朗的攻势在放缓。伊朗国土面积广阔，他们可以到处隐藏。
你看到的那些视频，你凭什么断定摧毁的不是诱饵？胡塞武装就曾利用诱饵取得了很好的战术效果。
美国甚至都无法有效摧毁胡塞武装的军事实力，而胡塞武装所使用的战术和欺骗手段，绝对和伊朗如出一辙。
 
Hamiltonblewit
Missile launchers and missiles are completely different things.
And what did you mean there’s no evidence Iran is slowing down? There’s been hardly any large waves for days and the amount of confirmed hits or video in general have shown little to reflect consistent Iranian responses on Telegram and even Twitter. Have you been watching those AI videos or reused footages because there has been way less alarms or waves recorded
 
导弹发射车和导弹完全是两码事。
你说“没有证据表明伊朗在放缓”是什么意思？好几天都没有大规模袭击了，而且总体来看，被确认的命中记录或视频都很少，根本无法印证Telegram甚至推特上宣称的伊朗在持续反击的说法。你该不是在看那些AI生成的视频或者重复利用的老旧素材吧，因为实际记录到的防空警报或袭击波次明显少了很多。
 
Old_Wallaby_7461
>There is no credible evidence of Iran slowing down at all.
The number of missile launch warnings in Israel is public data and it is currently 1/5 of the number on day one
 
> 根本没有任何可靠证据表明伊朗的攻势在放缓。
以色列的导弹发射警报数量是公开数据，目前的数据只有开战第一天的五分之一。
 
BendicantMias
The Kurds are not going to take Tehran for you, especially after you've already betrayed them before, and you seriously misunderstand them if that's the plan
The Kurds aren't one monolithic group, even in Iran, despite how often western media portrays them that way. They don't even share the same faith or language - there are Sunni Kurdish populations and also Shia ones, and even in Iran there are numerous Kurdish dialects that are often unintelligible to each other. As a whole the Kurds also cover half a dozen countries in the region, so everyone is incentivized to oppose them forming their own nation, as such a thing would take a bite out of all their countries. Turkey especially has been very active in putting down any Kurdish nationalism. Many Iranian Kurdish groups don't even seek their own nation, just some greater autonomy from Tehran.
Your 'plan' in both wars seems to have just been to create a spectacle by killing a bunch of people and hope the Iranian people would do the rest by toppling the regime and accepting your puppet Shah. For some wierd reason, it seems the Iranians weren't interested in obliging their attackers...
 
库尔德人是不可能替你们打下德黑兰的，尤其是你们以前早就背叛过他们一次了；如果你们真的是这么打算的，那你们对他们绝对存在严重的误解。
库尔德人并不是铁板一块，即便在伊朗境内也是如此，尽管西方媒体经常把他们塑造成一个团结的整体。他们甚至连信仰和语言都不统一——有逊尼派库尔德人，也有什叶派库尔德人；即使在伊朗，也有许多互不相通的库尔德方言。
 
整体而言，库尔德人分布在该地区的六个国家中，因此每个国家都有强烈的动机去阻止他们建立自己的民族国家，因为这将会从这些国家的领土上咬下一大块肉。特别是土耳其，在镇压任何形式的库尔德民族主义方面一直都非常积极。许多伊朗境内的库尔德武装甚至不追求建立独立的国家，只是希望从德黑兰那里获得更大的自治权罢了。
 
在这两场战争中，你们的“计划”似乎都只是想通过杀害一群人来制造些大新闻，然后指望伊朗人民会自己站出来推翻政权并接纳你们的傀儡国王来完成剩下的工作。出于某种不可思议的原因，伊朗人似乎对配合袭击者们的想法毫无兴趣……
 
test_test_1_2_3
Sounds like the USA has underestimated how much the Iranian regime set things up to allow for attacks to continue without a central command.
Removing those capabilities will now come at the expense of more neighbouring countries getting hit to identify and eliminate where Iran is attacking from and they certainly put a lot of effort into stockpiling drones and missiles.
Realistically their ability to launch missiles will cease long before their ability to launch drones will.
 
听起来美国低估了伊朗政权在部署上的心机——他们早已做好了准备，确保即使失去中央指挥也能继续发动袭击。
现在想要消除这些能力，代价将是让更多邻国遭到打击，以便识别和清除伊朗的攻击阵地；毫无疑问，他们在储备无人机和导弹方面投入了大量心血。
从现实角度来看，他们发射导弹的能力，会比发射无人机的能力枯竭得早得多。
 
Hamiltonblewit
Yeah, their main threats will be drones from now on but I heavily doubt the U.S underestimated them since the force buildup is truly massive and meant for a rather long conflict.
But if the strategy is to just bomb the shit out of Iran until it becomes like Libya or Syria, the might as well be possible if they keep it up as brutish as they might be.
 
是的，从现在开始他们的主要威胁将是无人机。但我非常怀疑美国是否真的低估了他们，因为这次的兵力集结规模确实极其庞大，摆明了是要打一场相当长的消耗战。
不过，如果战略只是把伊朗炸个底朝天，直到它变成利比亚或叙利亚那样，如果他们继续保持这种野蛮的轰炸力度，这倒也不是不可能。
 
BendicantMias
The force is literally not 'truly massive', and not even close to what's meant for a 'rather long conflict' - https://youtu.be/wv11TLDlIA0?si=az9UIZvEpOxBwbh3
 
这支部队根本算不上“极其庞大”，甚至连“应对相当长的冲突”的边儿都沾不上 - https://youtu.be/wv11TLDlIA0?si=az9UIZvEpOxBwbh3
 
Waldoh
>Kurdish forces being boosted by U.S/Isreali air support in a potential incursion, that sounds like an more effective strategy.
Kurdistan will happen this time we promise! LMao
 
> 有关库尔德武装在美国和以色列的空中支援下可能发起入侵的报道来看，这听起来像是一个更有效的策略。
这次库尔德斯坦一定能建国，我们保证！笑死。
 
asmodraxus
Allegedly Iran is launching their crap stock of drones and missiles to burn through Americas good interceptors, then they will start on their good stuff.
Also remember they are in it for the long term, not the short term unlike America.
 
据说伊朗正在发射他们库存的垃圾无人机和导弹，目的是为了耗尽美国精良的拦截弹，然后他们才会动用真正的压箱底好货。
另外别忘了，和追求速战速决的美国不同，他们打从一开始就是做好了打持久战的准备。
 
Old_Wallaby_7461
The issue here is that lately they just aren't launching anything. Numbers are way down since day one
 
核心问题在于他们最近根本没怎么发射任何东西了。自开战第一天起，数字就在断崖式下跌。
 
wezl0
The numbers are way down, but they are getting hits while shooting 2-3 missiles, instead of needing hundreds before anything got through, like in the 12 Day War. This points to different missile tech being used. We've already seen missiles that use a cluster warhead that basically enshrouds the payload in a bunch of other smaller projectiles. Thats a big problem because they can really stretch their stockpile that way. They will probably "take days off" missiles usage just to harass the Gulf with drones to make this all last longer than institutions can stand
 
数量的确大幅下降，但他们现在只需发射两三枚导弹就能命中目标，而不像十二日战争那样，需要发射成百上千枚才能有一枚突防。这表明他们使用了不同的导弹技术。我们已经看到了配备集束弹头的导弹，它们基本上将主载荷包裹在一大堆小型子弹药中。这可是个大麻烦，因为这种战术能极大地延长他们库存的使用寿命。他们很可能会“休假几天”不用导弹，纯粹用无人机去骚扰海湾地区，好让这整场冲突拖延得比任何机构所能承受的极限还要长。
 
SirStupidity
> Allegedly Iran is launching their crap stock of drones and missiles to burn through Americas good interceptors, then they will start on their good stuff.
Allegedly by who? Iran state media? Which weapons exactly are they saving buddy?
The interception rates have been outstanding in all of the Gulf states. Drones are an issue because they are hard to detect when flying from such a short distance, which is why were seeing hits. But once Iran has to start launching from further away CENTCOM will have more time to detect and shoot down. And no, they aren't shooting down 10k$ drones with 3m$ interceptors, there are APKWS systems that are genuinely cheaper than drones, and if not cheaper definitely in the ball park of 20~k$.
People here are either extremely uninformed or just attempting to build another reality. If they read the article they would know this. The munition stocks worry is in a war against China, not against Iran.
 
> 据说伊朗正在发射他们库存的垃圾无人机和导弹，目的是为了耗尽美国精良的拦截弹，然后他们才会动用真正的压箱底好货。
谁说的？伊朗官方媒体吗？伙计，他们到底留了什么武器没用？
所有海湾国家的拦截率都非常惊人。无人机之所以成为问题，是因为它们从那么近的距离起飞时很难被探测到，这才是我们会看到目标被击中的原因。但是，一旦伊朗被迫从更远的地方发射，美军中央司令部就有更多的时间来发现并击落它们。
 
还有，不，他们并没有用价值300万美元的拦截弹去打价值1万美元的无人机；有APKWS这种确实比无人机更便宜的系统，就算不比无人机便宜，它的价格也绝对是在两万美元上下的区间。
这里的人要么是极其无知，要么就是试图给自己编造一个平行宇宙。如果他们认真读了这篇文章，就会明白这一点的。军火库存吃紧，真正让人担忧的对手是中国，而不是伊朗。
 
Hapchazzard
IMO Shaheds are going to be the main long-term problem for the US here, not missiles - particularly since their "launch systems" are so rudimentary and easy to replace (unlike missiles). If Iran can just keep up harassing Gulf infrastructure and maritime commerce while no concrete progress is made to actually cause the state to collapse or have its regime changed, the questions of "what's the exact endgame here?" are going to become louder and louder, especially once the pool of "flashier" undestroyed targets like nuclear and prominent IRGC sites are exhausted.
 
在我看来，“见证者”无人机才是美国在这场冲突中面临的长期难题，而不是导弹——特别是因为无人机的“发射系统”非常简陋且极易更换（这与导弹不同）。如果伊朗能不断骚扰海湾地区的基础设施和海上贸易，而美国却迟迟无法取得让伊朗国家崩溃或政权更迭的实质性进展，那么关于“这仗到底准备怎么收场？”的质疑声就会越来越大，尤其是当核设施和重要的伊斯兰革命卫队基地等比较有“爆点”的目标都被炸得一干二净之后。
 
MongolPerson
Yes, the IRGC can wage a long cheap war.
The US/Israeli plan here is to disrupt Iranian command networks, damage the ability of the IRGC to coordinate/respond to insurgencies and rebellion. There are enough Iranians who oppose the IRGC, even within the IRGC structure(this is proven by existing Intel networks that are leaking the locations of IRGC hardliners/leaders, like Khomenei).
Later when the Kurds, Balochs, & Azeris rebel the IRGC will be hampered in their ability to respond. Iranian military Generals/Admirals will be convinced(bribed & threatened by US/Israel) that the IRGC will not be able to protect them, that it is in their best interest to seize power in their military districts, and to oppose the weakened IRGC.
The cost of this could be months of damage to international oil markets. If the IRGC cannot be properly dismantled shipping could be damaged for years.
 
是的，革命卫队完全能打一场漫长而廉价的战争。
美国和以色列的计划是破坏伊朗的指挥网络，削弱伊斯兰革命卫队协调及应对叛乱和暴动的能力。其实有很多伊朗人反对伊斯兰革命卫队，甚至在革命卫队内部也有人反对（现有的情报网络能够泄露像哈梅内伊这样强硬派领导人的位置就是明证）。
 
以后一旦库尔德人、俾路支人和阿塞拜疆人起义，伊斯兰革命卫队的镇压能力将大打折扣。伊朗的陆军将军和海军将领将会被说服（通过美国和以色列的贿赂和威胁），让他们相信伊斯兰革命卫队保护不了他们，并且在各自的军区夺取权力、对抗被削弱的革命卫队才是符合他们最大利益的选择。
 
这样做的代价可能会是国际石油市场遭受持续数月的动荡。如果不能彻底瓦解伊斯兰革命卫队，全球航运业可能会遭受长达数年的打击。
 
studio_bob
Zelensky's attempts to insert himself into this conflict have seemed... desperate.
 
泽连斯基试图强行把自己硬塞进这场冲突的做法显得……太急了。
 
TurelSun
Why is that surprising? The Iran conflict could well pull resources that would have been spent in defense of Ukraine. It would be a legitimate concern for him.
 
这有什么好奇怪的？伊朗的冲突很可能会抽走原本用于保卫乌克兰的资源。他的担忧完全是合情合理的。
 
whatproblems
it’s also pulling iranian resources from supporting russia
 
这同时也抽走了伊朗援助俄罗斯的资源啊。
 
questionnmark
There is a major problem with the math in having to launch a couple of six figure costing interceptors in order to intercept a five figure costing shaheed drone, the math ain't mathing. It's incredibly short-sighted in hindsight for the U.S. to completely shut out Ukraine a year ago, when they are the best country in the world with both the tools and experience to deal with these threats.
 
为了拦截一架成本仅为五位数的“见证者”无人机，必须发射几枚成本高达六位数的拦截弹，这笔经济账存在着极大的问题，这账根本算不平。现在回想起来，美国一年前完全把乌克兰排除在外显得极其短视，毕竟乌克兰是世界上同时拥有应对这些威胁的工具和丰富经验的最佳国家。
 
TheIrishBread
The problem is not the cost of the interceptor or the interceptee but the cost of repairing damage and replacing knowhow for what gets hit.
 
核心问题不在于拦截弹或被拦截目标的成本，而在于修复被击中目标造成的破坏，以及填补技术人才损失的巨大代价。
 
MarderFucher
The math is assuming they are actually wasting PAC-3s on Shaheds, which may happen as last-resort but its unlikely to be the general case.
 
这个成本账的前提是他们真的把PAC-3（爱国者-3拦截弹）浪费在“见证者”无人机上，这或许会在逼不得已的时候发生，但不太可能成为常态。
 
studio_bob
What is Ukraine going to do here? They use Western tech to shoot down Russian missiles and drones sometimes. Okay, but the limiting factor here is ammunition, not know how. The US and Israel are also fighting Iran, not Russia.
 
乌克兰来这里能帮上什么忙？他们有时是使用西方技术击落了俄罗斯的导弹和无人机。好，但目前的限制因素是弹药不足，而不是缺乏相关经验。更何况，美国和以色列要对付的是伊朗，又不是俄罗斯。
 
haggerton
Most US vassals are cucks by choice. They aren't stupid. They just like being cucks.
 
大多数美国的附庸国都是自愿当绿帽奴的。他们并不蠢。他们就是喜欢这种被虐感。