如果俄罗斯入侵的不是乌克兰而是哈萨克斯坦，会发生什么？

Old_Wallaby_7461
Kazakhstan has a very weak military, especially relative to Ukraine. Russia would overrun the country in a week, annex the Russian-majority areas directly and install a puppet to rule the rest. Putin's internal approval would go up. Russian relations with China would get worse, the west would protest and maybe lay some sanctions but not too much. It almost certainly would be done if it could be done without angering the Chinese.

哈萨克斯坦的军事力量非常弱，尤其是相对于乌克兰。俄罗斯一周内就能占领这个国家，直接吞并俄罗斯族占多数的地区，并扶植一个傀儡来统治其余部分。普京的国内支持率会上升，俄罗斯与中国的关系会恶化，西方会抗议并可能施加一些制裁，但不会太多。只要不激怒中国，这件事几乎肯定会发生。

Slyraks-2nd-Choice
Why do the Chinese care? Asking because I’m unaware.

中国人为什么在意？问这个是因为我不太了解。

Old_Wallaby_7461
They don't like unrest on their borders, imperialism + annexation on their borders counts as unrest

他们不喜欢边境出现动荡，帝国主义+吞并事件发生在他们边境上就算是动荡。

Slyraks-2nd-Choice
Good lookin out. Not so much that they have any real investment in Kazakhstans success, more that they want their “buffer zone.”

多谢提醒，倒不是说他们真的对哈萨克斯坦能成功避免入侵有什么真正的投入，而是他们想要自己的“缓冲区”。

SAFODA16
They're also growing trade partners, with Kazakhstan exporting billions and billions of USD in minerals, oil, metal ores, and cereals to China. As per China, it exports mainly tech products and goods to Kazakhstan. It's a trade relationship that has grown a lot in recent years

他们也是不断增长的贸易伙伴，哈萨克斯坦向中国出口价值数十亿美元的矿产、石油、金属矿石和谷物。根据中国方面，它主要向哈萨克斯坦出口科技产品和商品。这是近年来增长很快的贸易关系。

ottawsimofol
Plus China wants these regions in its sphere of influence through Belt and Road. Not that they want to invade invade or rule over them, but if there is a choice between Russia and China, China wants those countries picking the option that benefits it. Example: I think China was annoyed with Russia growing closer to NK as a result of the Ukraine war, as it sees NK in its sphere of influence, not Russia. Russia also has a habit of stealing other countries land in Asia and China probably wouldn’t like that, because Russia has stolen Chinese lands in the past. When it comes to Ukraine, thats to them is far far away so they dgaf. China would rather have a bunch of small states on its borders than one big Russian state, because China deals with all countries bilaterally. If China is bigger than the country its dealing with, it has more say in the relationship.

另外，中国希望通过“一带一路”将这些地区纳入自己的势力范围。不是说他们想入侵或统治这些国家，而是如果要在俄罗斯和中国之间选，中国希望那些国家选择对自己有利的选项。比如：我认为中国对俄罗斯因乌克兰战争而与朝鲜走得更近感到恼火，因为中国视朝鲜为自己的势力范围，而不是俄罗斯的。

俄罗斯在亚洲有抢占别国土地的习惯，中国可能不喜欢这样，因为过去俄罗斯就抢过中国的土地。至于乌克兰，对他们来说太遥远了，所以他们根本不在乎。中国宁愿边境上有一堆小国，也不愿出现一个庞大的俄罗斯国家，因为中国与所有国家都是双边关系，如果中国比对方国家强大，在关系中就有更多话语权。

oneofus1234
Unless they are the ones doing it, à la Taiwan

除非是他们自己在做，比如台湾（地区）。

Pension-Helpful
Technically, China see Taiwan as a separatist province from a on-going civil war.

严格来说，中国视台湾（地区）为一场持续内战中分离出去的省份。

Slyraks-2nd-Choice
Doesn’t make them right

这并不代表他们是对的。

Legal-Temperature67
Only imperialism when Russia or China does it. Not when USA does a cSpecial Military Operation" in Venezuela to take control fo their oil. No sanction, no international condemmation, not even talking about weapons for them. All countries are equal, some more equal than others.

只有俄罗斯或中国做的时候才叫帝国主义。美国在委内瑞拉搞“特别军事行动”控制石油就不算。没有制裁，没有国际谴责，甚至没人谈论给他们武器。所有国家都是平等的，但有些国家更平等。

Slyraks-2nd-Choice
Putin: what do you mean they did it in 3 hours?!?! 

普京：你说他们3个小时就搞定了是什么意思？

MyCountryMogsYours
Ok putin

好吧普京

m1d9t
VERY NICE, KOMЯДDE!

非常好，同志！

lily-kaos
i mean, there was international condemnation for the kidnapping of maduro, it just didn't come from the west.

我的意思是，对绑架马杜罗确实有国际谴责，只是没来自西方。

Slyraks-2nd-Choice
Polish PM: “Couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy.” His direct quote the following day

波兰总理：“再合适不过的人选了。” 这是他第二天的直接引用。

Vindaloovians
All types of imperialism are bad - one doesn't justify the other.

所有形式的帝国主义都是坏的——一种不能为另一种辩护。

Legal-Temperature67
Where is the international reaction towards the USA then? If you hold all imperialism to the same standard then why aren't you treating it the same way? You are just a bunch of hypocrits and liars if you don't. The reality is that imperialism benefits the west when they do it. They will openly support or do it if it benefits them. That is the reality, you just don't get it.

那对美国的国际反应在哪里？如果你们对所有帝国主义都用同一标准，为什么不一视同仁？你们要是不这样就是一群伪君子和骗子。现实是帝国主义对西方有利时他们就支持或去实行，这就是现实，你们就是不明白。

paxwax2018
Venezuela was a failed state funding terrorism, 8 million left in a refugee crisis.

委内瑞拉是个失败国家，还资助恐怖主义，800万人陷入了难民危机。

Mackadamma
That's true, but it wasn't out of philanthropy or any empathy for Venezuelans that the US went looking for Maduro.

这是真的，但美国找马杜罗麻烦并不是出于慈善或对委内瑞拉人的同情。

paxwax2018
No, but sometimes these things overlap.

是，但有时候这些事会重叠。

Legal-Temperature67
So was Ukraine. Failed state propped up by EU and USA with internal conflict, killings, survivig off of loans and also millions of refugees. Venezuela just wasn't propped up the same way as Ukraine was by Russia or China. The irony here.

乌克兰也是。失败国家，被欧盟和美国撑着，有内部冲突和杀戮、靠贷款生存，还有数百万难民，委内瑞拉只是没有像乌克兰一样被俄罗斯或中国撑着。这就是讽刺。

paxwax2018
Oh, found the Ruzzian, tongue black with lies.

哦，发现了俄罗斯人，舌头都被谎言染黑了。

kanthefuckingasian
Except Maduro do deserved it, as much as I hate Trump and would love to see a European nation do an SMO against Trump too

尽管马杜罗罪有应得之，但我讨厌特朗普，也希望看到一个欧洲国家也对特朗普进行特别军事行动.

Low_Patience2519
Taiwan is not imperialism, but a natural territory dispute. A losing side of a war lost and go looking for refugee in an island, is natural the winning side asks for the other's territory (just as Taiwan reclaims mainland China).

台湾（地区）问题不是帝国主义，而是自然的领土争端。战败一方逃到岛上避难，胜利一方自然对对方领土提出要求（就像台湾（地区）声称要收复大陆一样）。

Slyraks-2nd-Choice
Technically you mean Formosans but details details

严格来说你指的是福尔摩沙人，不过注意细节，细节。

Fallacy_Spotted
Formosa is the westernized name for the island of Taiwan and Formosans lumps them together into the singular. The Indigenous peoples of Taiwan are on multiple islands and encompass at least 26 tribes of people. We are the same page but I wanted to be a bit more generalized. Also Americans don't know what Formosa is but native peoples and Taiwan are understood.

福尔摩沙是台湾（地区）岛的西方名称，Formosans把他们统称为一个。台湾（地区）原住民分布在多个岛屿，至少有26个部落。我们观点一致，但我想要更泛化一点。而且美国人不知道福尔摩沙是什么，但原住民和台湾（地区）是能理解的。

Slyraks-2nd-Choice
My wife do be Taiwanese so that helps

我老婆是台湾（地区）人，所以这有帮助

69YaoiKing69
China has its own plans with Central Asia and it doesn't like unrest on its borders. Look up to the Chinese Silk Road 2025 Initiative.

中国对中亚有自己的计划，不喜欢边境动荡。去查查中国的丝绸之路2025倡议。

Fallacy_Spotted
Kazakhstan and Mongolia act as buffer states between Russia and China which guarantees a stand off distance in the event of heightened hostilities. Russia has next nothing on the far east border specifically to not cause tensions. China has the belt and road initiative; the belt of harbors and the road through Central Asia, Pakistan, and Iran. That infrastructure is in a theoretically neutral space of weak countries. Iran is an exception and they use it to there advantage to play both sides. Both sides are fine with that because Iran is a proxy for both against western influence in the Middle East. These areas are barren and filled with mountains just like Afghanistan. If the people don't want you there they will make sure the cost is higher than the meager benefit. A gaurilla war against Russia would be an excellent training ground for the Uyghers because they exist in both Kazakhstan and China. China doesn't want a strong freedom fighter problem in its far west. Lastly, China has trade with Kazakhstan for grains and minerals. Many of the mines are Chinese owned and prop up their electronics industry. This is replaceable but still costly.

哈萨克斯坦和蒙古作为俄罗斯和中国之间的缓冲国，确保在敌对升级时有对峙距离。俄罗斯远东边境几乎没什么兵力，就是为了不制造紧张。中国有“一带一路”倡议：港口带和穿过中亚、巴基斯坦、伊朗的道路，这些基础设施位于一个理论上中立的弱国。伊朗是个例外，他们利用这点玩两面手法，但中俄双方都接受，因为伊朗是双方对抗中东对西方影响的代理。这些地区像阿富汗一样荒凉多山。如果当地人不想接受你，他们会让你的成本远超微薄的收益。哈萨克对俄罗斯的游击战是极好的训练场，因为他们同时会存在于哈萨克斯坦和中国，中国不希望它的远西地区出现强大的自由战士问题。最后，中国与哈萨克斯坦有粮食和矿产贸易。很多矿是中国所有的，支撑他们的电子产业。这虽然可以替代，但代价仍很高。

alexrdk
There are many assets in Kazakhstan that belong to China and the United States.

哈萨克斯坦有很多资产属于中国和美国。

feckmesober
Think you underestimate the islamic part.. there would be a big backclash in all russian muslim regions as well as globally.. eventually Kazakstan could be a new afganistan appealing to islamists for their global jihad

我觉得你低估了伊斯兰因素……俄罗斯在所有穆斯林地区乃至全球都会有巨大反弹……最终哈萨克斯坦可能成为新的阿富汗，吸引伊斯兰主义者进行全球圣战。

Old_Wallaby_7461
I don't think Muslims would come running to defend the secular government of Kazakhstan. This is not Afghanistan or Saudi Arabia or the Emirate of the Caucasus - where is the motivation?

我不认为穆斯林会跑来保卫哈萨克斯坦的世俗政府。这不是阿富汗、沙特或高加索酋长国——动机在哪里？

feckmesober
Never underestimate what the brainwashed are willing for the Ummah… Azerbaijan, which collaborate with israel and is shia, was able to attract thousands of sunny jihadis to cleanse armenians in Karabac.

永远不要低估被洗脑的人为了乌玛愿意做什么……阿塞拜疆与以色列合作，还是什叶派，却能吸引成千上万的逊尼圣战者去卡拉巴赫清洗亚美尼亚人。

Uchqunbekuz
Nope, brainwashed people think they are liberating them from Nazi government.

不，被洗脑的人认为他们是在把他们从纳粹政府解放出来。

Blackwolf245
Would his approval really go up? Like, is this the level of the Russian society today? U annex a country and your people applaud you in 2026?

他的支持率真的会上升吗？现在的俄罗斯社会是这个水平吗？2026年吞并一个国家人民就给你鼓掌？

Ok-Calligrapher901
I fear this isn’t a Russian thing, and most countries with nationalist sentiment will see a successful conquest as a win. Especially a conquest of an area many think their home nation should already control anyway. Not agreeing with it, but it’s just how it is

我担心这不是俄罗斯独有的，大多数有民族主义情绪的国家都会把成功的征服视为胜利。尤其是一个很多人认为本国早就该控制的地区。我不同意发生这种事，但现实就是这样。

admiralackbarstepson
To help support this point there are ultranationalists in Russia who are upset and have been jailed for being so pro-war they criticism Putin for not doing enough annexation

为了支持这一点，俄罗斯有极端民族主义者因为过于支持战争、批评普京的领土吞并做得不够而被监禁，他们为此感到愤怒。

Snarknado3
100%

100%

GeneratedUsername5
It is not even today, it was like that in 2014 already, with Crimea annexation.

甚至不是现在，2014年吞并克里米亚时就这样了。

mate1mistico
In most countries that nationalize their population from kindergarten through university, any act that demonstrates the supremacy of one country over another using economic, political, or military means to affect a nation would mean that the current ruler would be well-received and applauded. Remember, there is nothing that sells better than saying that a country is so strong that it defeated an enemy nation without problems.

在大多数从幼儿园到大学都对国民进行民族主义教育的国家，任何通过经济、政治或军事手段展示一国优越性并影响他国的行为，都会让现任统治者受到欢迎和鼓掌。记住，没有什么比宣称国家强大到轻松击败敌国更受拥戴。

Dizzy_Emu_2684
Yeah, you just lie to the people about why it’s happening. Tell your people their government needs denazification, they’re hurting your ethic/religious group, they send drugs and violent crime into your country, make up some WMDs, or just say they aren’t pumping the amount of oil you think they should etc. People in every country eat that shit up when their government says it

对，你只要对人民撒谎说为什么这样做，告诉人民对方政府需要去纳粹化，他们在伤害你的民族/宗教团体，他们向你国家输出毒品和暴力犯罪，编造大规模杀伤性武器，或者说他们产油量不够等等。每个国家的人民听到政府这么说都会买账。

ivan0226
Country gets more land, citizens happy. It has been like this since forever

国家得到更多土地，公民高兴。从古至今一直如此。

ynudy
I don’t think so, the average Russian knows they have a lot of land already and they know it’s Putin an ego. Just can’t speak up unless u want kgb knocking u off

我不这么认为，普通俄罗斯人知道他们已经有足够多的土地，也知道这是普京的自我膨胀。只是不敢说出来，除非你想被克格勃找上门。

Rapid_1923
Yes

是的

SexWith_TedCruz
There is literally no reason they would invade Kazakhstan, the roots of today’s war go back to 2008 and 2014. People for some reason ignore the literal civil war in Ukraine from 2014-2022…acting like Russia sent in a covert spetsnaz force of 80,000 lMao

俄罗斯根本没有理由入侵哈萨克斯坦，今天战争的根源可以追溯到2008和2014。人们不知为何忽略了2014-2022乌克兰的真正内战……实际上当时俄罗斯可能派了8万名特种部队秘密进入，哈哈。

Old_Wallaby_7461
There is literally no reason they would invade Kazakhstan, Sure there is. The north of the country is majority Russian. People for some reason ignore the literal civil war in Ukraine from 2014-2022…acting like Russia sent in a covert spetsnaz force of 80,000 lMao We've known for a long time that the "civil war" would not have lasted- or probably even existed- without extensive Russian support. Everything from leadership (Girkin) to experienced troops to advanced military equipment was supplied by Moscow.

俄罗斯根本没有理由入侵哈萨克斯坦，当然有。哈国北部多数是俄罗斯族。人们不知为何忽略了2014-2022乌克兰的真正内战……“实际上当时俄罗斯可能派了8万名特种部队秘密进入”，我们早就知道，没有俄罗斯的大力支持，“内战”根本撑不下去，甚至可能根本不会存在。从领导（吉尔金）到有经验的部队再到先进军事装备，都是莫斯科提供的。

SexWith_TedCruz
Here’s the thing, Russia could send all the arms they wanted to, but it never would have worked if there were not people from the Donbas willing to pick them up and fight them. And since February 2014 when Ukraines new government removed Russian as an official language, and then burned 50 people alive in odessa…who the hell wouldn’t fight? It actually took quite a bit for Putin to relent and send in aid, strelkov and gubarev made public please constantly in the early days. Strelkov wanted to withdraw to the border to try and force russias hand. If you’d like to actually learn why the conflict happened, and how ridiculous the “yeah they’ll invade cause there are Russians in the north” comment is, here is the world leading international theorist breaking it down bit by bit, with all the supporting evidence: https://www.youtube.com/live/qciVozNtCDM?si=zeXU9avLG5gRWc_m

事情是这样的，俄罗斯可以送他们想要的所有武器，但如果顿巴斯没有当地人愿意拿起武器战斗，也不会成功。从2014年2月乌克兰新政府取消俄语官方语言地位，然后在敖德萨烧死50人开始……到这地步了谁他妈不会去战斗？普京其实花了相当长时间才松口送援助，早期的斯特雷尔科夫和古巴列夫不断公开恳求。斯特雷尔科夫甚至想撤到边境逼俄罗斯出手，如果你想真正了解冲突为什么发生，以及“因为北部有俄罗斯人所以会入侵”这种说法有多荒谬，这里有世界顶尖国际关系理论家一点一点拆解，附带所有证据：【链接】

Old_Wallaby_7461
Here’s the thing, Russia could send all the arms they wanted to, but it never would have worked if there were not people from the Donbas willing to pick them up and fight them. Russia did not only send arms. There are lots of Russian soldiers with medals for service in Ukraine 2014-2022. They stopped being bashful about their participation after the invasion- no need to hide anymore. And since February 2014 when Ukraines new government removed Russian as an official language, and then burned 50 people alive in odessa…who the hell wouldn’t fight? Ukraine's new government did not remove Russian as an official language and nobody gave a damn about the thugs that got burned in the trade unx building. Girkin himself said that without him there would've been no war. It actually took quite a bit for Putin to relent and send in aid, strelkov and gubarev made public please constantly in the early days. Strelkov wanted to withdraw to the border to try and force russias hand. Nobody believes this anymore. Girkin himself was the 'aid.' It is true that Russia sent more aid after Girkin & co. were in danger of losing the war, but Russian assets were there from the start. Girkin himself was one. If you’d like to actually learn why the conflict happened, and how ridiculous the “yeah they’ll invade cause there are Russians in the north” comment is, Mearshimer is, of course, full of shit as per usual. Here is why the conflict happened: Putin's ideology (as much as it can be called an ideology) is centered around the revival of Russia as a superpower. He is not a communist, but he misses the days when Moscow spoke and people listened. It is his view that Russia can only be a superpower when all of the 'historical Russian lands' are unified and ruled from Moscow, and Moscow can dictate terms in Europe and central Asia as it did prior to 1990. To this end, at least the Russian-speaking half of Ukraine must be brought 'Heim ins Reich,' and the rest of Ukraine converted to a Belarusian-style puppet state. Ukrainian efforts to join the EU and/or NATO are a critical threat to this plan. The first stage was getting Yanukovych to simply abandon the EU. When he was thrown out over this during the Maidan, plan B was to prevent Ukraine from joining the EU and NATO by fomenting a massive crisis in the East- this is when Girkin & co. were deployed to start the Civil War. However, by 2020, the civil war was dying down and it seemed like Ukraine was moving west again. This was unacceptable, so an invasion was planned to produce the desired result by direct force of arms.

事情是这样的，俄罗斯可以送他们想要的所有武器，但如果顿巴斯没有当地人愿意拿起武器战斗，也不会成功。俄罗斯不只是送武器。很多俄罗斯士兵有2014-2022在乌克兰服役的勋章。入侵后他们不再遮掩参与了——没必要再藏了。

从2014年2月乌克兰新政府取消俄语官方语言地位，然后在敖德萨烧死50人开始……谁他妈不会去战斗？乌克兰新政府并没有取消俄语官方语言地位，也没人关心工会大楼里被烧死的那些暴徒。吉尔金自己说过，没有他就不会有战争。普京其实花了相当长时间才松口送援助，早期的斯特雷尔科夫和古巴列夫不断公开恳求。斯特雷尔科夫甚至想撤到边境逼俄罗斯出手。现在没人再信这个了。吉尔金本人就是“援助”。确实在吉尔金等人面临战败危险后俄罗斯送了更多援助，但俄罗斯力量从一开始就在那里。吉尔金本人就是其一。

如果你想真正了解冲突为什么发生，以及“因为北部有俄罗斯人所以会入侵”这种说法有多荒谬，米尔斯海默当然一如既往地满嘴胡说。这儿才是冲突发生的原因：普京的意识形态（如果能叫意识形态的话）核心是复兴俄罗斯为超级大国。他不是共产主义者，但他怀念莫斯科一发话大家就听的日子。在他看来，只有把所有“历史俄罗斯土地”统一并由莫斯科统治，俄罗斯才能成为超级大国，莫斯科才能像1990年前那样在欧洲和中亚发号施令。

为此，至少乌克兰俄语区必须“回家归帝国”，乌克兰其余部分则转为白俄罗斯式的傀儡国。乌克兰努力加入欧盟和/或北约是对这一计划的致命威胁。第一阶段是让亚努科维奇放弃欧盟。当他在迈丹被赶下台后，B计划是通过在东部制造巨大危机阻止乌克兰加入欧盟和北约——这就是部署吉尔金等人发动内战之时。然而到2020年，内战逐渐平息，乌克兰似乎又要倒向西方。这是不可接受的，于是计划通过直接武力入侵来达成目标。

SexWith_TedCruz
It’s wild how people can just straight up invent whole cloth what Putin is thinking in his mind. Ignore the endless evidence, ramble about “Putin ideology” and other nebulous vacuous ideas while not actually saying anything. Ukraine literally did remove Russian as an official language, it was finalized in 2019 under poroshenko. “Merasjeimer is full of shit per usual” Dispute a single piece of evidence he has with another piece of tangible evidence. You can’t. Yet another redditor who thinks they are smarter than John mearsheimer But really, watch the lecture (you won’t) and take a single event he lays out (you won’t) and provide evidence that it did not go down (you can’t)

人们居然能凭空编造普京脑子里在想什么，真是疯狂。忽略无穷无尽的证据，喋喋不休地谈论“普京意识形态”和其他模糊空洞的想法，却什么也没说。

乌克兰确实取消了俄语作为官方语言，是在2019年波罗申科任内敲定的。“米尔斯海默一如既往满嘴胡说”， 用另一条有形证据来反驳他的一条证据。你做不到。又一个自以为比约翰·米尔斯海默聪明的Reddit用户， 但说真的，去看他的讲座吧（你不会看的），然后挑他列出的一个事件（你不会挑的），并提供证据证明它没发生（你做不到）。

Old_Wallaby_7461
Ignore the endless evidence, ramble about “Putin ideology” and other nebulous vacuous ideas while not actually saying anything. Putin is very honest about what he thinks, he says so in plain language all the time Ukraine literally did remove Russian as an official language, it was finalized in 2019 under poroshenko. Hey bro you just said it happened in 2014. What happened?

无视无数的证据，漫无目的地谈论“普京意识形态”和其他模糊空洞的想法，而实际上什么也没说。普京对自己的想法非常诚实，他一直用通俗易懂的语言说话，乌克兰确实取消了俄语的官方语言地位，这是波罗申科在2019年完成的。嘿，兄弟，你刚刚说这事发生在2014年，怎么回事?

nocturne505
If the only name you can cite in international relations is Mearsheimer, you might want to broaden your reading. Plenty of others in the field—like Stephen Sestanovich and Michael McFaul—have challenged his position on this war. Watching a single video on the bus doesn’t qualify as understanding the issue. At the very least, try reading what the relevant academics and professionals actually say about the matter before coming back.

如果你在国际关系中唯一能引用的名字是米尔斯海默，你可能需要拓宽阅读范围。该领域有很多其他人——如斯蒂芬·塞斯坦诺维奇和迈克尔·麦克福尔——挑战了他对这场战争的立场。在公交车上看一个视频并不足以理解这个问题。至少，在回来之前，试着阅读相关学者和专业人士对这个问题的实际看法。

James420May
" without angering the Chinese." Doubt. If Chinese still get what they want they will not care. This would only prove to them that Taiwan is up for grabs

“不激怒中国人。” 我对此说法持怀疑。如果中国人还能得到他们想要的，他们不会在意。这只会向他们证明台湾（地区）是可以抢的。

Old_Wallaby_7461
This has nothing to do with Taiwan for China. For them the Russian equivalent of Taiwan was Chechnya

对中国来说，这与台湾（地区）无关。对他们来说，俄罗斯版的台湾（地区）是车臣。

Trujillopatriot
Kazakhstan immediately falls and surrenders russian relations with China get worse irritating people virtue signal on social media less.

哈萨克斯坦立即陷落并投降，俄罗斯与中国关系恶化，烦人的人在社交媒体上做道德表演就会更少了。

ZainTheKiwi
Dont you think kazakhstan would be able to launch guerilla style warfare as was done in Afghanistan? Assuming its being funded by either a Chinese or American anti-russian block

你不觉得哈萨克斯坦能像阿富汗那样发动游击战吗？假设它由中国或美国的反俄集团资助。

Trujillopatriot
No chance too wealthy to flat not enough extremists russia ruled them for hundreds of years.

没机会，太富裕，太平坦，没有足够多的极端分子，俄罗斯统治了他们几百年。

ZainTheKiwi
True, i didnt consider the terrain factor. Since Kazakhstan was a former soviet republic do you think the people wouldnt be as hostile towards a Russian “intervention”?

没错，我没考虑地形因素。由于哈萨克斯坦是前苏联共和国，你认为人民不会对俄罗斯“干预”抱有敌意吗？

Murky_Assignment_909
I grew up in Kazakhstan. From my pov people there will not want to die for their government. At least it was like this 15 years ago.

我在哈萨克斯坦长大。从我的观点看，那里的人不会想为政府而死。至少15年前是这样。

Trujillopatriot
Yes far less hostile and less willing to fight as Kazakhstan is nearly a high income nation

是的，敌意小得多，不太愿意战斗，因为哈萨克斯坦几乎是个高收入国家。

PuffyPanda200
to [too] flat The area between Almaty and the Kapshagay Reservoir isn't that flat. Urban environments have been shown, in Ukraine and previously in Chechnya, to be an issue for Russia. The land next to China in Kazakhstan is hilly to mountainous. I could see a Kazak government set up in Almaty (the largest metro too) and controlling basically an area bordering China. Russian supply lines would be super long and probably need to use rails. That makes them pretty easy targets for partisans.

太平坦了？阿拉木图和卡普恰盖水库之间的地区没那么平坦。在乌克兰和之前的车臣，城市的地形环境已被证明对俄罗斯是个问题。哈萨克斯坦靠近中国的地区是丘陵到山地。我能想象哈萨克政府在阿拉木图（最大的都市）成立，并基本控制与中国接壤的地区。俄罗斯补给线会超级长，可能需要用铁路。这让他们成为游击队相当容易的目标。

Someone-Somewhere-01
The problem that the areas Russia would most likely want to annex would be already Russian majority any way

问题是俄罗斯最可能想吞并的地区反正已经是俄罗斯族占多数。

YSoMadTov
So instead of conventional warfare, we get Afghanistan 2.0: Electric Boogaloo.

所以我们得到的不会是常规战争，而是阿富汗2.0版：电动布加洛舞。

Heisan
People said the same of Ukraine, lol. I think the big question is how many years would Kazakhstan have to prepare.

人们对乌克兰也说过同样的话。 我觉得大问题是哈萨克斯坦需要多少年准备。

AccomplishedUsetoken
The difference is Europe wouldn't have the direct line to supply. It would fall in days. And maybe an insurgency but probably not. Poverty stricken places don't care who is in charge as long as their lives don't get worse.

区别是欧洲不会有直接补给线。它会在几天内陷落，也许有叛乱，但可能没有。贫穷的地方不在乎谁掌权，只要生活不变坏。

Astronaut-Business
Kazakhstan is cut off from Europe to be supplied, our military is probably ten times weaker than Ukrainian in 2022, and then theres the corruption. In US you would call the current administration corrupt, but Kazakhstan is ten times worse, its just running rampant. Thankfully our current president is making solid moves to put us on path to better future with his reforms and how he practically shunned our ex-president. To address some of the people that think it would turn into Guerilla Warfare, while we do value our independence, Kazakhstans terrain isnt really suited to do that

哈萨克斯坦被切断与欧洲的补给，我们的军队可能比2022年的乌克兰弱十倍，还有腐败。在美国你们会说现政府腐败，但哈萨克斯坦更糟十倍，它就在肆虐。谢天谢地，我们现总统正在通过改革和实际回避前总统来让我们走上更好的未来道路。对于那些认为会变成游击战的人，虽然我们重视独立，但哈萨克斯坦的地形不适合那样。

EA250
Ukraine had 8 years to prepare since the annexation of Crimea. Kazakhstan doesn't have that.

乌克兰自克里米亚被吞并后有8年时间作准备，哈萨克斯坦没有。

quantumfall9
Wasn’t there big anti-government protests a few years ago and the Kazakh president asked Russia to send their military into Kazakshan to crush the protests? Kazakstan is less strategic than Ukraine so I doubt there would be nearly the level of interest. Same as when Russia invaded Georgia, or when Armenia was attacked by Azerbaijan. There might be some strongly worded Twitter posts by government officials, but it’s not like there would be a massive military resupply/intervention.

几年前不是有大规模反政府抗议吗，哈萨克总统请俄罗斯派军队进哈萨克斯坦镇压抗议？哈萨克斯坦战略性不如乌克兰，所以我怀疑外部是否有兴趣，就像俄罗斯入侵格鲁吉亚，或亚美尼亚被阿塞拜疆攻击时一样。政府官员可能有些强硬的Twitter帖子，但不会有大规模军事补给/干预。

Rare_Oil_1700
Not much, Russia receives a harsh rebuke from China, and the United States says that Russia doesn't respect international borders at the UN. Otherwise, everything remains the same, although the Kazakhs are surely beginning to see a progressive economic decline. And Ukraine and Finland will possibly join NATO quickly.

不会很多，俄罗斯会收到中国的严厉斥责，美国在联合国说俄罗斯不尊重国际边界。否则，一切照旧，尽管哈萨克人肯定会看到经济的逐步衰退。而且乌克兰和芬兰可能很快加入北约。

James_Blond2
Depends if Russia "allowes" Ukraine to join, maybe wed have 2 invasions

取决于俄罗斯是否“允许”乌克兰加入，也许我们会有2次入侵.

Rare_Oil_1700
I assume that no Russian invasion occurs, neither small-to-medium scale (from 2014 onwards) nor large scale (from 2022 onwards). This means that Ukraine's decision to join NATO would be much faster, so fast (imagine an emergency NATO meeting) that the Russians might not be able to react by invading in time (it requires a minimum of planning). What Russia could do is the typical thing of green soldiers and spontaneous people's republics (but these would be crushed by Ukrainian and NATO troops) almost instantly.

我假设没有俄罗斯入侵，既不是中小规模（从2014年起）也不是大规模（从2022年起）。这意味着乌克兰加入北约的决定会快得多，快到（想象一个紧急北约会议）俄罗斯可能来不及通过入侵反应（需要最小规划）。俄罗斯能做的就是典型的绿色士兵和自立的人民共和国（但这些会被乌克兰和北约部队几乎立即粉碎）。

E-E-N
But what about Crimea?

但克里米亚呢？

Rare_Oil_1700
The Russians will possibly be kicked out of the Sevastopol base there under a diplomatic agreement (basically, if you don't leave, we'll take Transnistria).

俄罗斯人可能在一份外交协议下被踢出那里的塞瓦斯托波尔基地（基本上，如果你不走，我们就拿回德涅斯特河沿岸）。

Aleco198909
Transnistria vs Crimea? I'm not sure that's a very good comparison

德涅斯特河沿岸 vs 克里米亚？我不确定这是个好比较

Rare_Oil_1700
I didn't elaborate enough. If the Russians don't withdraw from Crimea, a NATO-backed intervention could be threatened in Transnistria, and also in Georgia (in the separatist regions). And the closure of the borders with Russia and Belarus (to all traffic) would include a de facto land blockade of Kaliningrad. not counting the sanctions (similar to the current ones). Although it could also happen that Russia keeps the de facto base in the style of Tartus.

我没阐述够。如果俄罗斯不撤出克里米亚，北约支持的干预可能会威胁到德涅斯特河沿岸，也包括格鲁吉亚分离地区，以及关闭与俄罗斯和白俄罗斯的边界（所有交通）会包括对加里宁格勒的事实陆上封锁，这还不包括制裁（类似当前的）。当然也有可能，俄罗斯保持塔尔图斯风格的事实基地。

ExerciseOnly8020
Very bad comparison Transnisitria is NOT!! Crimea...Russia will fight for that peninsula in any scenario....it's to valuable to just let go

很坏的比较， 德涅斯特河沿岸不是克里米亚!!……俄罗斯会在任何情景下为克里米亚半岛战斗……它太有价值, 不能就这样放手.

Rare_Oil_1700
In my fictional scenario, the Russians still control their naval base, while the rest of Crimea is under Ukrainian control, with NATO troops arriving immediately from Romania. Something similar to the current situation at the Tartus naval base would occur.

在我的虚构情景中，俄罗斯人仍控制他们的海军基地，而克里米亚其余部分在乌克兰控制下，北约部队立即从罗马尼亚抵达。类似于当前塔尔图斯海军基地的情况会发生。

Deep-Range-4564
It's up to the NATO countries to allow Ukraine in, with a 100% yes... and several (if not most of them) would not.

取决于北约国家允许乌克兰加入，需要100%同意……而且几个成员（如果不是大多数）不会同意。

The1Legosaurus
I don't think the Russian military would have that capability

我不觉得俄罗斯军队有那个能力.

StrategosRisk
Evacuate via Baikonur

通过拜科努尔疏散

ThatGuyFromBraindead
Fall of Saigon style photo but with Soyuz instead of a Chopper.

西贡陷落风格照片，但用联盟号代替直升机。

extremefurryslayer
Kazakhstan left the USSR AFTER Russia. Considering it’s flat terrain and Kazakhstan is far less prepared and harder to fund than Ukraine and less likely to worry the west, Kazakhstan would likely fall. This would be great news for america as it would be the sino soviet split 2 electric boogaloo, but it would also complicate cross Atlantic relations as if Russia counterbalances China but Europe doesn’t like Russia, it is unclear how America would act, especially under Trump.

哈萨克斯坦在俄罗斯之后离开了苏联，考虑到它的平坦地形，而且哈萨克斯坦远不如乌克兰准备充分，更难资助，也不太可能让西方关注，哈萨克斯坦很可能陷落。这对美国是好消息，因为这将是中苏分裂2.0版，但也会复杂化跨大西洋关系，如果俄罗斯制衡中国，但欧洲不喜欢俄罗斯，不清楚美国会怎么做，尤其在特朗普治下。

Icy_Hold_5291
There’s no easy route to supply them so you are totally right. It’s likely that sanctions on Russia are the only thing NATO countries do and those other countries on the periphery would try harder to get into NATO

没有容易的路线补给他们，所以你完全正确。很可能北约国家只对俄罗斯进行制裁，而那些外围国家会更努力加入北约。

_Cyanidic_
Kazakhstan is literally a military ally of Russia so this would be like american invading a fellow nato member... oh wait a second. Kazakhstan is a regional power of a non strategic region and is anti west. Its hard to imagine a scenario where anyone comes to Kazakhstans aid. The Kazakhstanian government most likely wouldnt even put up a fight because independence from Russia was never really something in history they fought for unlike the Ukrainians. The Russians would have to commit some very serious atrocities for any significant resistance to appear. I think the larger consequences are instead the decrease in trust many existing CSTO nations have with Russia. Those that wish to remain independent will struggle to align themselves with a nation who invades their allies. Although saying that this would never happen this way, if the Russians ever cared about annexing Kazakhstan it would be done through internal means. There would never be a war.

哈萨克斯坦字面上是俄罗斯的军事盟友，所以这就像美国入侵北约成员……哦等一下。哈萨克斯坦是非战略地区的区域大国，而且反西方。很难想象出有人援助哈萨克斯坦的情景。

哈萨克斯坦政府很可能不会抵抗，哈萨克斯坦政府很可能根本不会反抗，因为从俄罗斯独立出来在历史上从来就不是他们真正想要的，不像乌克兰人。俄罗斯人必须犯下非常严重的暴行才会出现重大抵抗。我觉得更大的后果是许多现有集体安全条约组织国家对俄罗斯的信任下降。那些希望保持独立的国家会难以与入侵盟友的国家结盟。虽然这么说，这绝不会这样发生，如果俄罗斯人曾经在意吞并哈萨克斯坦，会通过内部手段完成，不会有战争。

Rezuszaur23
Kazakhstan never was anti-west We are more like Swiss - neutral, just without all Swiss money

哈萨克斯坦从来不是反西方，我们更像瑞士——中立，只是没有瑞士有钱。

darudeboysandstorm
I always say it’s the Switzerland of Central Asia.

我总是说它是中亚的瑞士。

neyaaaaa
first time hearing Kazakhstan being perceived as anti-west. That's funny

第一次听到哈萨克斯坦被视为反西方的，挺搞笑的.

HappyHamstring
About neutral on western culture and value. Switzerland is very much pro-west as being part of it. I know next to nothing about Kazakshtan but I would have assumed it is conservative and leaning pro-russia/China than shares European liberal democracy values. Am I completely off?

关于西方文化和价值的中立国，瑞士作为其中一部分非常亲西方。我对哈萨克斯坦一无所知，但我会假设它是保守的，更倾向亲俄/亲中，而不是分享欧洲自由民主价值。我完全错了吗？

Available_Theory1217
Russia has history of invading their own allies so it would be not something new

俄罗斯有入侵自己盟友的历史，所以不是什么新鲜事.

FeelingAnalysis6663
Like who…?

比如谁……？

KulshanStudios
Well, Georgia, for one. The Treaty of Georgievsk. Georgia signed a protectorate agreement with imperial russia to protect them against the persians One year later, Persia invades. Russia does f*** all. Ignores it. Doesn't bother reacting to it til way too late, and Tbilisi was already leveled. Then, decades later, Russia annexes and absorbs them into the Russian empire. Then when the Russian Empire self-destructed, Georgia got about 4 years of freedom, before the Russians invaded and annexed them again With friends like Russia, who needs enemies?

嗯，格鲁吉亚就是一个，格奥尔吉耶夫斯克条约，格鲁吉亚与俄罗斯帝国签署保护协议来保护他们对抗波斯人， 一年后，波斯入侵。俄罗斯什么也没做，忽略了它，到太晚才有反应，而第比利斯已经被夷平。然后，几十年后，俄罗斯吞并并吸收他们进入俄罗斯帝国。然后俄罗斯帝国自毁，在俄罗斯再次入侵并吞并他们之前，格鲁吉亚得到了大约4年的自由，有像俄罗斯这样的朋友，谁还需要敌人？

Available_Theory1217
Hungary, Czechoslovakia.

匈牙利，捷克斯洛伐克。

creep04ek
never fought for independance from russia? thats interesting 

哈从来没有为从俄罗斯独立而战？那挺有趣的

LeoxStryker
Hello. It is I, President Borat Sagdiyev, number one leader in all of Kazakhstan. Today is very serious day. Very serious. More serious than time my goat win local beauty contest. As you know, our dear friends from Russia have arrived. They arrive with many soldiers, many vehicles, and very confident GPS directions. They say they are not invading. They are “enthusiastically relocating border.” This is very modern concept. At first, we say, “No, no, Kazakhstan is strong, independent nation!” We wave flag. We sing anthem. We throw fermented horse milk in direction of tanks. But then… we see how many tanks. So now, in spirit of cooperation, hospitality, and strong desire not to be flattened like pancake at village breakfast, I make announcement. President Putin, strong man with very intense face and impressive shirtless résumé… Kazakhstan officially surrender. We welcome you to annex us. Please enjoy our steppe. It is very spacious. You can park many tanks. Maybe, if possible, let me keep presidential parking space. It took many years to secure. To my people, do not be sad. Borders change. Leaders change. Currency changes. But spirit of Kazakhstan? Very resilient. Like old Lada - may not look powerful, but somehow still running. We will adapt. We will smile. We will learn Russian grammar properly this time. And to President Putin, I say: welcome. Please be gentle with infrastructure. We just renovated airport. Thank you. God bless Kazakhstan. God bless… expanded Kazakhstan. And may all paperwork be processed quickly and with minimal corruption.

你好。是我，波拉特·萨格迪耶夫总统，全哈萨克斯坦第一领袖。今天是非常严肃的一天，非常严肃，比我山羊赢得当地选美比赛时还严肃。

正如你所知，我们亲爱的俄罗斯朋友来了。他们带着许多士兵、许多车辆和非常可信的GPS来了。他们说他们不是入侵，他们是“热情地重新定位边界”，这是非常现代的概念。

一开始，我们说，“不，不，哈萨克斯坦是强大、独立的国家！” 我们挥舞旗帜，我们高唱国歌。我们向坦克扔发酵马奶。但然后……我们看到更多坦克。所以现在，本着合作、好客和强烈不想像村里早餐的煎饼一样被压扁的精神，我宣布，普京总统，强壮的男人，有非常强硬的脸廓和令人印象深刻的赤膊……哈萨克斯坦正式投降。

我们欢迎你吞并我们，请享受我们的草原，它非常宽敞，你可以停很多坦克。也许，如果可能，让我保留总统停车位。它花了很多年才获得。对于我的人民，不要悲伤，边界变，领袖变，货币变，但哈萨克斯坦的精神？它非常有弹性。像老拉达——可能看起来不强大，但不知怎地还在跑，我们会适应，我们会微笑，我们这次会学正确的俄语语法。

而且面对普京总统，我说：欢迎你，请温柔对待基础设施，我们刚翻新了机场，谢谢。上帝保佑哈萨克斯坦，上帝保佑……广阔的哈萨克斯坦。希望所有的文书工作都能迅速处理，尽量减少腐败。

TastyPomelo2330
The only country in the world not run by little girls has fallen

世界上唯一不被小女孩统治的国家陷落了

sixtyninetacks
Sacha, is that you?

萨沙，是你吗？

Initial-Ad-2948
West wouldnt care as much like with georgia in 2008. Minimal response with some sanctions.

西方不会像2008年格鲁吉亚那样在意，以增加一些制裁作为最小限度的回应。

Joe_Exotics_Jacket
Georgia is 1/40 the size and had preexisting Russian breakaway states as a excuse, it’s kind of different.

格鲁吉亚是哈的1/40大小，并有预存的俄罗斯分离政权作为借口，有点不同。

PersimmonTall8157
West doesn’t care about Georgia. They barely know such a place exist

西方不在乎格鲁吉亚，他们几乎不知道还存在这样一个地方。

Zestyclose-Ad3151
I do, know the situation between them and Russia is pretty messy similar to Ukraine with some disputed territories that Russia wants. The west didn’t care probably for how far it was and they probably were thinking about other stuff like the Recession and the US election so maybe it was just the timing and geography that didn’t play i. Georgia favor. Although the war ended in 16 days. Ukraine war is still very much going after 3 years.

我知道，他们和俄罗斯的情况很乱，类似于乌克兰，有一些俄罗斯想得到的争议领土。西方不在乎可能是因为太远，他们可能在考虑其他事情，比如经济衰退和美国大选，所以可能只是时间和地理因素没有发挥作用。所以战争16天就结束了，而乌克兰战争3年后还在进行。

PersimmonTall8157
I’m convinced Georgia has been traded for Moldova behind the scenes. And Ukraine will be split in two. Armenia was betrayed and will seek closer ties to the west but probably stay somewhere in between both like Azerbaijan.

我相信格鲁吉亚在幕后被交换给了摩尔多瓦，而且乌克兰会被分成两半。亚美尼亚被背叛，会寻求与西方更密切联系，但可能像阿塞拜疆一样留在两者之间。

Zestyclose-Ad3151
Idk about Armenia, these poor guys are just in a bad spot between Azerbaijan and Turkey who despise it for some reason. And Georgia isn’t much of a friend either cause Armenia has built closer ties to Russia which Georgia hates cause they got territory they want back from Russia. Overall the caucasus is a very messy place like the balkans and the middle east , you can be forgiven for not fully understanding it or how to fix it, me included.

我不了解亚美尼亚，这些可怜的家伙正处于阿塞拜疆和土耳其之间的不利位置，后者出于某种原因鄙视它。而且与格鲁吉亚也不是朋友，因为亚美尼亚与俄罗斯建立了更密切的联系，格鲁吉亚讨厌它因为他们有想从俄罗斯要回的领土。总体上高加索是个很乱的地方，像巴尔干和中东，你可以被原谅不完全理解它，或怎么解决它，我也一样。

PersimmonTall8157
Caucasus will never be fixed as long as there are greater powers having their interest there. Also the Georgia-Armenia relation is very interesting since it made a total switch up politically, Armenia being pro-Russia but turning pro-west since the 2023 karabach war. Georgia turning from pro-west to a Russian puppet after the election (which was most likely rigged by Russia)

只要大国有兴趣在那里，高加索问题永远不会被解决。而且格鲁吉亚-亚美尼亚关系很有趣，因为政治上完全颠倒，亚美尼亚亲俄但自2023年卡拉巴赫战争以来转为亲西。格鲁吉亚在大选后（很可能被俄罗斯操纵）从亲西转变为俄罗斯的傀儡。

ZlpMan
Georgia and Armenia are stuck between big empires. And still they are the only Christian countries at that place they joined Russia to be protected from Turkey. But both of those leaned west. But Georgia went farther and started a war/military operation and that’s when Russia intervened.

格鲁吉亚和亚美尼亚卡在大帝国之间，而且他们仍是那个地方唯一的基督教国家，他们加入俄罗斯是为了免受土耳其侵害，但两者都倾向西方。格鲁吉亚走得更远，开始了战争/军事行动，结果导致俄罗斯的干预。

BonnieCooperBing
They would have happily surrendered. Come take us back with you. Soviet unx once again!!!

哈萨克会高高兴兴地投降，来吧，把我们带回去，苏联重生!!!

realShaoKhan
Technically they would take Russia back as Kazachstan was the last member state of the Soviet unx to leave.

严格来说，他们会把俄罗斯带回去，因为哈萨克斯坦是最后一个离开苏联的成员国。

GeneratedUsername5
Technically it is not a Soviet unx anymore.

严格来说，它不再是苏联了。

PersimmonTall8157
Why do you say that like current Russia is a good place to live in. Russia is not much better than Kazakhstan.

你为什么说得好像现在的俄罗斯是个生活好的地方，俄罗斯并不比哈萨克斯坦好多少。

Ok-Stay-4825
China would be the one providing weapons to Kazakhstan rebels.

中国会是向哈萨克斯坦叛军提供武器的那一方。

New-Aside-6805
They wouldve pissed off the Chinese a ton, enough to militarily intervene? Idk

他们会把中国人气得够呛，够到军事干预的程度吗？不知道。

Dangerous-Watch932
US will invade Iraq

美国会入侵伊拉克

amievenrelevant
Would definitely ruin relations with the rest of Central Asia and China, and Eastern Europe would probably be forced to quickly rearm because they know Russia wouldn’t just stop there. I don’t think it’d be too different other than if Kazakhstan would be easier or harder to conquer

这肯定会破坏与中亚其他国家和中国的关系，东欧可能会被迫迅速重新武装起来，因为他们知道俄罗斯不会止步于此。在哈萨克斯坦是更容易或更难征服方面，我不认为会有太大的不同.

Due_Gift3683
The war would've been over quick, and not much of the international community would have cared. China goes on an anti-Russian propaganda spree.

战争会很快结束，国际社会大多不会在意。中国会展开一波反俄宣传狂潮。

NowWeGetSerious
Unfortunately, no country would back Kazakhstan to the amount that they've supported Ukraine. Plus with Kazakhstan weak and small military, the war would be over within a week to a month max. But Putin is an idiot and decided to go against a country that America has had a 40 year deal with.

不幸的是，没有国家会像支持乌克兰那样支持哈萨克斯坦。而且哈萨克斯坦军队弱小，战争最多一周到一个月就结束。但普京是个白痴，选择对抗一个美国有40年协议的国家。

RangerSome9549
They would be in a war with the rest of the Turkic world which obviously includes Turkey.

他们会与突厥世界的其它国家开战，显然包括土耳其。

jrc_80
China would have words

中国会有话说.

AssminBigStinky
Afghanistan

阿富汗

SuperSultan
China and America would be best buds for a long time after that. Also, Russia doesn’t need Kazakhstan lmfao. A lot of it is just empty land.

在那之后，中国和美国会成为长期好哥们。而且，俄罗斯根本不需要哈萨克斯坦，哈哈，那里很多地方只是空地。

Beanz1896
A Kazakh flag would be raised over the Kremlin in 2 weeks

两周内克里姆林宫上就会升起哈萨克斯坦国旗.

eamonjun
What are the resources in Kazakstan besides rocket launching? Isn’t Ukraine so happen to have very high fertile land‍♂️

除了火箭发射，哈萨克斯坦还有什么资源？乌克兰不是正好有非常肥沃的土地吗？

Human_Pangolin94
It's more the oil and gas under the donbas and off the shore of Crimea.

更多是顿巴斯地下和克里米亚近海的石油和天然气。

Intelligent-Panda23
eh, Kazakhstan has shit ton of oil, uranium, rare earth minerals to name a few

呃，哈萨克斯坦有大量石油、铀、稀土矿物等等。

Ancient-End3895
Recent history (Bosnia, Chechenia, Syria etc) shows that the quickest way to turn a relatively moderate Muslim country into a Jihadist hotbed is a little dose of war, so I don't think this would go so well for the Russians. The West wouldn't care at all about Kazakhstan but if the Russians did their typical mass killing of civilians you would see a lot of sympathy in the Muslim world and foreign fighters pouring in to do a Jihad.

最近的历史（波斯尼亚、车臣、叙利亚等）显示，把一个相对温和的穆斯林国家迅速变成圣战温床的最快方式就是来一点战争，所以我觉得这对俄罗斯人不会太顺利。西方根本不会在意哈萨克斯坦，但如果俄罗斯人像往常一样大规模杀害平民，你会看到穆斯林世界的大量同情，外来战士将涌入进行圣战。

Tormachi25
Russia already has troops inside kazakhstan so all it would have to do is just send them into major populated areas, have the larger russian army cross over the border, hold fake referendums in the northern kazakh regions for independence and than annexation into russia and your pretty much done, kazakhstan just doesn't have the army, logistics or international support ukraine did in 2022 China may attempt to send aid to kazakhstan but it would be half hearted because relations would be more important with russia although I could see China being on colder relations then in our timeline Worst thing to happen to russia would be the unrest, violence and protests going on in kazakhstan and the areas russia annexed, I could see russia having to deploy vast amounts of manpower in the region weakening its overall military strength abroad and in crimea and the donbass Western sanctions would be implemented just not as harsh irl, could see European countries being more flexible because they really seem to love cheap Russian gas Ba'athist syria might not collapse like it did irl with more russian support and equipment available but maybe the russians pulling back troops would cause syria to fall anyways Overall weaker influence for russia globally but stronger than irl

俄罗斯已经在哈萨克斯坦有部队，所以只需把他们派到主要人口区，大量俄军越过边境，在哈北部地区举行假独立公投，然后吞并，俄罗斯就基本搞定，哈萨克斯坦根本没有乌克兰在2022年时那样的军队、后勤或国际支持。

中国可能尝试援助哈萨克斯坦，但会半心半意，因为与俄罗斯的关系更重要，尽管在我们的时间表上，我可以看到中俄的关系会变得更冷，最坏的情况是哈萨克斯坦和被吞并地区出现动荡、暴力和抗议，俄罗斯得在那里部署大量人力，这会削弱它在国外、克里米亚和顿巴斯的整体军力。

西方制裁会实施，但没现实中那么严厉，能看到欧洲国家更灵活，因为他们真的很爱便宜的俄罗斯天然气。如果有更多俄罗斯的支持和装备，复兴党的叙利亚可能不会那么容易崩溃，但也许俄罗斯撤军会导致叙利亚无论如何都会垮台，总的来说，俄罗斯在全球的影响力较弱，但比小国强。

usafqn2025
Never happen because nobody overthrow the government of kazahkstan by the west and Kazahkstan is an ally of russia so both will never start war

永远不会发生，因为西方没人想推翻哈萨克斯坦政府，而且哈萨克斯坦是俄罗斯的盟友，所以两者永远不会开战。

-Ozman
Could never happen, Central Asia (+Azerbaijan) have neatly established themselves between China AND the West, Russia can’t afford to meddle in that region at all, as it would mean angering both camps at once

不可能发生，中亚（+阿塞拜疆）已经在中西方之间稳稳站稳脚跟，俄罗斯根本负担不起干涉那个地区，因为那意味着同时惹怒两个阵营。

Plus_Commercial5365
Kazakhstan would fall very quickly, and no one in the West would care because they aren’t white enough. I know that sounds flippant, but there’s a reason everyone knows about the war in Ukraine and no one remembers the one in Georgia. China, on the other hand, would not approve. So Russia would probably become enemies with China and allies with NATO.

那样的话哈萨克斯坦会很快陷落，西方没人会在意，因为他们不够白。我知道这听起来轻浮，但这就是为什么大家都知道乌克兰战争，没人记得格鲁吉亚战争。另一方面中国不会同意，所以俄罗斯可能会与中国为敌，与北约结盟。

Flyersfan3453
Kazakhstan would fall very quickly, and no one in the West would care because they aren’t white enough. I know that sounds flippant, but there’s a reason everyone knows about the war in Ukraine and no one remembers the one in Georgia. Georgians are literally white

“哈萨克斯坦会很快陷落，西方没人会在意，因为他们不够白。我知道这听起来轻浮，但这就是为什么大家都知道乌克兰战争，没人记得格鲁吉亚战争”，格鲁吉亚人就是白人啊。

Human_Pangolin94
Or as the Americans call it, Caucasian.

或者用美国人的话说，高加索人。

Plus_Commercial5365
Whiteness is a social construct, and a dumb one at that. Yeah, Georgians may look exactly like Europeans and have a similar culture, but a lot of Westerners still consider them to be non-white. The same goes for Latin Americans, who Americans consider non-white even some South American and Caribbean countries literally have a larger white minority than the United States.

白人是一种社会建构，而且是一种愚蠢的建构。是的，格鲁吉亚人可能看起来和欧洲人一模一样，也有相似的文化，但是很多西方人仍然认为格鲁吉亚人不是白人。拉丁美洲人也是如此，美国人认为他们不是白人，甚至一些南美和加勒比国家的白人少数民族比美国还多。

redditreader1972
It has less with whiteness and more with security and distance.

这和是不是白人关系不大，更多是安全和距离。

DontHitDaddy
Why? Ukraine has geographical meaning, and can be explained by realism school of thought.

为什么？乌克兰有地缘意义，可以用现实主义学派解释。

GeneratedUsername5
Everything can be explained with some effort.

任何事稍加努力都能解释。

DontHitDaddy
There are some real smart people that basically dedicated their entire lives to geopolitics and IR. You are not an expert, neither am I, but I’m going with them. Take mearsheimer for example. He said that Russia and Ukraine would fight, it’s based on nato expansion, realism theory, national security dilemma and so on. Kazakhstan doesn’t fall into anything. Now if Op said that they wanted to join nato, and nato invented a teleportation device that can teleport troops there in large quantities, then this discussion can have some context. Otherwise this is: Tomorrow the Soviet unx comes back, but they are all gay American Republican unicorns. What happens

有些真正聪明的人基本把一生献给了地缘政治和国际关系。你不是专家，我也不是，但我听他们的。以米尔斯海默为例。他说俄罗斯和乌克兰会打仗，是基于北约扩张、现实主义理论、国家安全困境等等。

哈萨克斯坦不属于任何这些，现在如果原帖说他们想加入北约，而且北约发明了能大量传送部队的传送装置，那讨论才有一定的背景。否则这就是：明天苏联回来了，但他们全是同性恋美国共和党独角兽，会发生什么。

Hellerick_V
Kazakhstan hardly has any predominately Russian territories. It does not suppress the Russian population and is not trying to eradicate the Russian language, and its Russian population generally is loyal to the government. Your scenario would require a Western-backed nazi coup first. Which nearly happened in January 2022, and Russia reacted to this, and this reaction was generally welcomed by the Kazakh population, as it quickly normalized the situation, thus preventing the 'Ukrainian' scenario.

哈萨克斯坦几乎没有以俄罗斯族为主的领土，它没有压制俄罗斯族人口，也没有试图消灭俄语，其俄罗斯族人口一般忠于政府。你的情景需要先有西方支持的纳粹政变。这在2022年1月几乎发生，俄罗斯对此作出反应，而这个反应一般被哈萨克人欢迎，因为它迅速使局势正常化，从而防止了“乌克兰式”的情况发生。

Confident-Cable3238
It would fail miserably. Kazakhstan is a giant country, as big as entire Western Europe. But unlike Western Europe it has extremely harsh climate and awful infrastructure. There will be no quick and easy war. It will be long painful and without any clear end. This war will destroy around 300 billion dollars of Western and Chinese investments, pissing off every single Russian neighbour. So yes there would be harsh sanctions, but this time from China as well.

俄会惨败，哈萨克斯坦是个巨大的国家，和整个西欧一样大。但不像西欧，它有极端恶劣的气候和糟糕的基础设施。不会有快速轻松的战争，它会漫长而痛苦，没有明确的结局。这场战争会摧毁约3000亿美元的西方和中国投资，惹怒每一个俄罗斯的邻国。所以是的，会有严厉制裁，但这次也会来自中国。

Human_Pangolin94
There will be no quick and easy war. It will be long painful and without any clear end. Do you think Ukraine is quick and easy?

“不会有快速轻松的战争，它会漫长而痛苦，没有明确的结局”，你觉得乌克兰是快速轻松的吗？

flx_1993
i think it is the next step, if they win in ukraine

我觉得如果他们在乌克兰赢了，这就是下一步。

RichIndependence8930
Nah, Azerbaijan and Georgia. Maybe Estonia.

不，应该会是阿塞拜疆和格鲁吉亚，也许是爱沙尼亚。

flx_1993
Haha no. I see u have no clue Azerbaijan is well protected by turkey. They are rich and have no russian population Georgia has no russian population. Is poor. And heavy influenced st the moment Estonia is the least likely of the three baltics states to invade. I mean first they will not invade the EU. They are not able break ukraine... so no change to win against the EU and Nato. There primary goal would be to reconnect their Land. If it is wis about population their goal would latvia. They 1/3 russians Kasachstan is weak. Big have a big russian population and would be the easiest target of the countries they do not controll at the moment

哈哈，不，我看你一无所知。阿塞拜疆受土耳其保护很好，他们富裕，没有俄罗斯人口。格鲁吉亚也没有俄罗斯人口，也很贫穷。而且目前受重大影响的爱沙尼亚是三个波罗的海国家中最不可能被入侵的。先不说他们不会入侵欧盟，他们连乌克兰都打不破……所以没机会战胜欧盟和北约。

他们的主要目标是重新连接起他们的领土地，如果是关于人口，他们的目标会是拉脱维亚，他们1/3是俄罗斯人。哈萨克斯坦虚弱，国土大，有大量俄罗斯人口，会是他们目前未控制的国家中最容易的目标。

TelevisionUnusual372
China would send a firehose of 3D printed weapons to the Kazakhs, as their border with Russia is close to critical Russian rail infrastructure. Damaging that would allow China to make a play for Russia’s far eastern resources.

中国会向哈萨克人送去海量的3D打印武器，因为他们与俄罗斯的边界靠近俄罗斯关键铁路基础设施，破坏这些会让中国有机会争夺俄罗斯远东资源。

GerEm_1408
Total russain collapse in 2 hours. 2-Hour War

俄罗斯会在2小时内完全崩溃。2小时战争。

Specific_Traffic_785
For Russia, everything may go smoothly at first, but then it will become a nightmare like Afghanistan.

对俄罗斯来说，一开始一切可能顺利，但之后会变成像阿富汗一样的噩梦。

Human_Pangolin94
Afghanistan wasn't a nightmare. The Soviets lost less troops in ten years there than the Russians did in three months invading Ukraine.

阿富汗不是噩梦，苏联在那十年损失的部队比俄罗斯入侵乌克兰三个月损失的还少。

Der_AlexF
Europe would care a lot less

欧洲不会那么在意的

Human_Pangolin94
China would care a lot more.

中国会在意得多。

Capable_Blood_2627
Nobody'd give a fuck. Maybe China.

没人会在乎，也许中国会。

RichIndependence8930
I am near certain that if Putin could go back in time, he would have just decided to fully occupy the Caucuses (with the help of Iran). Low risk, high reward.

我几乎确定如果普京能回到过去，他会决定完全占领高加索（在伊朗帮助下）。这是低风险高回报的。

BigJabrony
The world would have access to a lot less potassium

世界上可以获得的钾会少得多。

lord-polonius
Then the Chinese would have had to help

那中国人就得帮忙了.

Effective-Ad5050
What land would they take? European Kazakhstan?

他们会占领哪些土地？哈萨克斯坦的欧洲部分？

notknot9
They'd get back all that desert they irradiated

他们会拿回所有被他们辐射过的沙漠

ChironxiI
They don't need to do that because they are already cooperative

他们不需要那样做，因为他们已经在合作了.

thefirebrigades
why? nato isnt going there

为什么？北约不会去那里.

Big_P4U
I do believe Russia; If they were gonna try to reconquer anyone - they should've started in the Steppes and also officially absorb Belarus. They would've likely triumphed within a month, month and a half. From there they could've consolidated, and drawn from the large manpower pool to build a larger army and THEN likely overwhelm Ukraine.

我确实相信俄罗斯；如果他们要重新征服谁——他们应该从草原开始，也正式吞并白俄罗斯。他们很可能在一个月到一个半月内获胜。从那里他们能得到巩固，从大量人力池中抽调人员建立更大规模的军队，然后很可能压倒乌克兰。

SpadeGaming0
West would ignore it mostly and we would avoid the catastrophies of the Ukrainian war. Oil would still still though. Kazakhstan is a major oil producer and exporter. And major pipelines pass through it.

西方大多会忽略，我们会避免乌克兰战争的灾难。不过石油还是会涨，哈萨克斯坦是主要石油生产和出口国，主要管道穿过那里。

NoAuthor1645
we'll see in a couple of years

几年后我们就知道了

NoPipe1536
This scenario assumes that there is aggressive military block in Asia opposing Russia. Under aggressive I mean not believing into buffer states, taking under control Kazakhstan, Mongolia and other Asian states surrounding Russia. Then SMO in Kazakhstan makes sense.

这个情景是假设亚洲有激进军事集团反对俄罗斯，激进的意思是不相信缓冲国，控制住哈萨克斯坦、蒙古和其他包围俄罗斯的亚洲国家。那在哈萨克斯坦搞特别军事行动才有意义。

okieS_dnarG
More space flights by Russia, more restricted space flights by EU and US

俄罗斯会有更多太空飞行，欧盟和美国太空飞行会更受限。

Qnopsik
Why would Russia invade a pro-russian government ?

俄罗斯为什么要入侵一个亲俄政府？

redd1ter23
Why would Russia invade its own colony?

俄罗斯为什么要入侵自己的殖民地？

abellapa
The War would Really be Over in 3 days Couple months at most

战争真的会在3天内结束 最多几个月

noggre
They actually did, check the conclusion of the 2022 Kazakh unrest, the anti-government protests in Kazakhstan that were short after the series of 2018-2020 protests. Suppressed by the force with the help of three russian brigades.

他们其实做了，查查2022年哈萨克动荡的结局，哈萨克斯坦的那次反政府抗议发生在2018-2020系列抗议后不久，三个俄罗斯旅帮助进行了武力镇压。

Doctorwhatorion
Probably nobody would really care except China

可能没人真的会在乎，除了中国。