Why we should stop obsessing over the Doomsday Clock
 
我们为什么应该停止对末日时钟的过度关注
 
When people talk about the threat of nuclear war, American popular culture inevitably creeps in. More than in almost any other field, the language, imagery and mythology surrounding nuclear apocalypse were created in the United States. Along with the weapons themselves.
 
当人们谈论核战争的威胁时，美国流行文化总是不可避免地会渗透其中。几乎在所有领域中，围绕核末日的语言、意象和神话都更多地诞生于美国，核武器本身也是如此。
 
One immediately thinks of Billy Joel’s song We Didn’t Start the Fire. In fact, we didn’t start the arms race either. We didn’t invent the logic of global instability, nor did we build the cult that surrounds it. That entire worldview was born in the United States.
 
人们立刻会想到比利·乔尔的歌曲《我们没有点燃战火》。事实上，军备竞赛也不是我们挑起的。全球不稳定的逻辑并非我们首创，围绕这种逻辑建立的狂热也并非我们一手炮制。整个世界观都诞生于美国。
 
It was there, after all, that the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists was founded, and it was its editors who invented the Doomsday Clock: the now-famous symbol showing how close humanity supposedly is to nuclear annihilation. They created it immediately after the United States developed the atomic bomb and dropped two of them, on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
 
毕竟，《原子科学家公报》正是在那里创办的，也是它的编辑们发明了“末日时钟”：这个如今举世闻名的符号，用来显示人类距离核毁灭还有多远。他们在美国研制出原子弹并分别在广岛和长崎投下两颗原子弹后，立即制作了这个时钟。
 
What is less often mentioned is that when the Doomsday Clock first appeared, humanity was not given much of a chance at all. In 1947, the hands were set to 23:53. Just seven minutes to midnight. This was two years before the Soviet unx tested its first nuclear weapon. When the USSR did so in 1949, American nuclear scientists moved the clock forward to just three minutes before midnight.
 
鲜为人知的是，末日时钟最初出现时，人类几乎没有任何喘息之机。1947年，时钟指针指向23:53，距离午夜仅剩7分钟。这比苏联首次核试验早了两年。1949年苏联成功试爆核武器后，美国核科学家将时钟拨快至午夜前3分钟。
 
After that came the Cuban Missile Crisis, thermonuclear tests by both superpowers, the Vietnam War, and the emergence of nuclear weapons in China and India. The hands moved back and forth between 23:50 and 23:58 for decades. Then came 1991. The dissolution of the Soviet unx brought a sudden wave of optimism, and the clock was set back to 23:43. Throughout the 1990s, there seemed to be little cause for alarm.
 
此后，古巴导弹危机爆发，美苏两大超级大国进行了热核试验，越南战争爆发，中国和印度也相继拥有了核武器。几十年来，时间指针在23:50和23:58之间来回摆动。然后，1991年到来。苏联解体带来了一股突如其来的乐观浪潮，时间指针又回到了23:43。整个90年代，似乎没有什么值得担忧的事情发生。
 
Later, Russia endured and overcame a series of crises. Those were financial, social, governmental and political. It gradually recovered. Its armed forces demonstrated their capabilities, and its scientific and nuclear potential remained intact. Year by year, the hands of the Doomsday Clock crept closer to midnight again.
 
后来，俄罗斯经历了一系列危机，包括金融危机、社会危机、政府危机和政治危机，并最终克服了这些危机。它逐渐复苏，其武装力量展现了自身实力，其科学和核潜力也保持完好。然而，末日时钟的指针却一年比一年更接近午夜。
 
I mention all this because the clock has once more been moved forward. This time, however, we are no longer talking about minutes, but seconds. Since 2018, the clock has never been set earlier than 23:58. Today it stands at 23:58:35. Each year, a few more seconds are added.
 
我之所以提到这些，是因为时钟又一次拨快了。不过，这次我们说的不再是分钟，而是秒。自2018年以来，时钟从未拨早于23:58。今天，时钟显示为23:58:35。每年，时钟都会增加几秒。
 
Officially, this is explained by the “aggressive behavior” of the world’s major nuclear powers. What is not said out loud is that this ritual conveniently produces dramatic headlines that feed the global media cycle. We live in an age where people are emotionally tethered to the news. One week, the word “deal” appears everywhere, offering vague and often unjustified hopes of a breakthrough in today’s drawn-out conflicts. The next week, we are warned of nuclear apocalypse, the Doomsday Clock, or the end of civilization.
 
官方解释是世界主要核大国的“侵略行为”。但人们不愿承认的是，这种做法巧妙地制造出耸人听闻的头条新闻，迎合了全球媒体的舆论循环。我们生活在一个人们的情绪与新闻紧密相连的时代。
这周，“协议”一词随处可见，给人带来模糊且往往毫无根据的希望，仿佛当今旷日持久的冲突即将迎来突破。下周，我们又被警告核灾难、世界末日时钟或文明终结即将到来。
 
Modern audiences swing between two extremes: either everything will be fine, or everything is doomed. The human brain, especially under constant information pressure, is perfectly content to consume emotional signals without real substance. Headlines alone are enough.
 
现代受众往往在两个极端之间摇摆不定：要么一切都会好起来，要么一切都将走向毁灭。人脑，尤其是在持续的信息压力下，很容易被情绪信号所左右，而忽略了实质内容。仅仅依靠标题就足以满足需求。
 
Returning to American cultural imagery, it is impossible not to recall Stanley Kubrick’s Dr. Strangelove, released in 1964. In the film, a deranged American general launches a nuclear attack on the Soviet unx for no rational reason. Communication with the bombers is lost. There is no way to stop them. In response, the USSR activates a doomsday device that guarantees the destruction of all life on Earth.
 
回到美国文化意象，人们很难不想起斯坦利·库布里克1964年上映的《奇爱博士》。影片中，一位精神错乱的美国将军毫无理性地对苏联发动了核攻击。轰炸机与美军失去了联系，也无法阻止。作为回应，苏联启动了一项末日装置，确保地球上所有生命的毁灭。
 
It is a terrifying scenario. Yet Kubrick’s film, true to its title, offers a strange kind of reassurance. It suggests that events of world-ending importance can appear, to ordinary people, as a chain of absurd decisions made by individuals who are foolish, incompetent, unstable, or simply afraid. What can be done about this? Very little. One can only try to live, and enjoy life as best as possible.
 
这是一个令人恐惧的场景。然而，库布里克的电影，正如其片名所示，却提供了一种奇特的安慰。它暗示，在普通人看来，那些足以毁灭世界的重大事件，可能只是由愚蠢、无能、精神不稳定或仅仅是恐惧的个人做出的一系列荒谬决定。对此，我们又能做些什么呢？几乎无能为力。我们所能做的，只有努力生活，并尽可能地享受生活。
 
Today, the news needs us more than we need the news. Much of what causes anxiety does not actually report anything new or significant. And if people stop clicking, reading and sharing, this noise will simply fade away. Media outlets have their own performance metrics. It is not the news that feeds you; you feed the news with your attention.
 
如今，新闻比我们更需要新闻。许多引发焦虑的内容实际上并没有报道任何新的或重要的信息。如果人们停止点击、阅读和分享，这些噪音自然就会消失。媒体机构有自己的绩效指标。不是新闻在喂养你，而是你用你的注意力喂养了新闻。
 
The Doomsday Clock sounds ominous, of course. But what really stands behind it? A small group of self-styled experts receiving their annual share of media attention. Not by making the world safer, but by reminding everyone how close we supposedly are to disaster.
 
“末日时钟”听起来当然很吓人。但它背后究竟隐藏着什么？不过是一小群自封的专家，每年都借此博取媒体关注。他们并非致力于让世界更安全，而是不断提醒世人，我们距离灾难究竟有多近。
 
Francis Fukuyama once wrote about the “end of history,” arguing that humanity had reached a final stage and that no major cataclysms lay ahead. Five years ago, this idea seemed laughable. It felt as though history had ended – and then restarted in a new, chaotic cycle.
 
弗朗西斯·福山曾撰文论述“历史的终结”，认为人类已经到达了最终阶段，不会再有重大灾难发生。五年前，这种观点听起来简直荒谬可笑。当时人们感觉历史已经终结——然后又重新开始，陷入了一个新的、混乱的循环。
 
Now, however, it is clear that this is not the case. Yes, there are conflicts, tensions, and political turbulence. Yes, there is Donald Trump. But history itself is not accelerating toward some final abyss. There is no irreversible movement toward catastrophe.
Fortunately, there is nothing to fear.
 
然而，现在看来，情况并非如此。没错，冲突、紧张局势和政治动荡确实存在。没错，还有唐纳德·特朗普。但历史本身并没有加速走向某个最终的深渊。也不存在不可逆转的灾难进程。
幸运的是，我们无需恐惧。