QA问答：美国怎么才能打赢对中国的经济战？他们能做到吗？

Cailei No.2
The United States cannot do it. 
China is a near-perfect superpower with virtually no weaknesses in terms of territory, population, resources, industry, technology, and institutions!
In the past, the United States, through the Washington Consensus and geopolitical maneuvers, surgically dissected its adversaries' weaknesses. 
They once induced the British Empire to dismantle its colonial resource chains, forcing the once-mighty "empire on which the sun never sets" to retreat into isolation;
They used the plaza Accord to trigger Japan's financial bubble, plunging Japan into three decades of economic stagnation;
They exploited the Soviet unx's fatal weakness of over-reliance on a single industry, ultimately crippling the massive Soviet unx.
But facing China, they have run into a brick wall. 

【回答】
美国做不到。
中国是一个近乎完美的超级大国，领土、人口、资源、工业、科技、制度几乎没有任何短板！
过去美国通过华盛顿共识和地缘政治操作，精准解剖对手的弱点。
他们曾诱导大英帝国拆解殖民资源链，让曾经不可一世的“日不落帝国”缩回孤岛；
他们用广场协议引爆日本金融泡沫，让日本陷入三十年经济停滞；
他们抓住苏联过度依赖单一产业的致命弱点，最终拖垮了庞大的苏联。
但面对中国，他们撞上了铁板。

As a recent sharp assessment by a Russian scholar: "The China that the United States faces is a superpower without any flaws." 
Of the 41 industrial categories summarized by the United Nations, China is the only country in the world that possesses all of them. 
From the most common screw to the recently commissioned Fujian, China's third electromagnetic catapult aircraft carrier, from the HarmonyOS ecosystem reaching over 1.19 billion units to the "leapfrog development" of domestically produced chips under global blockade, this iterative speed of "China producing anything blocked by the West" has turned economic blockade into a "catalyst" for Chinese innovation.
China is the only country in the world that has all the industries classified into 31 divisions, 207 groups, and 666 classes, and it has offered firm support for the country's industrial and economic development. 
In the past, the West believed that China's economic development relied on its demographic dividend. While the West was still hyping up China's population size, China had already completed its transformation from "manual labor" to "intellectual labor." 

正如近期俄罗斯学者一针见血的评价：“美国面对的中国，是一个毫无破绽的超级大国。”
联合国归纳的41个工业大类中，中国是全球唯一全部拥有的国家。
从最普通的螺丝钉，到近期下水的第三艘电磁弹射航母福建舰，从装机量突破11.9亿的鸿蒙生态到全球封锁下国产芯片的“换道超车”，这种“西方封锁什么，中国就突破什么”的迭代速度，已让经济封锁变成中国创新的“催化剂”。  
中国是全球唯一拥有全部工业门类（31个大类、207个中类、666个小类）的国家，为国家的工业经济发展提供了坚实支撑。
过去西方认为中国经济发展靠的是人口红利，当西方还在炒作中国人口规模时，中国早已完成从“体力劳动”到“脑力劳动”的转型。

Currently, China boasts the world's largest number of R&D personnel at 10.797 million, and the average years of education for its 16-59-year-old workforce has increased to 11.3 years. This is no longer a collection of cheap labor, but a scientific research Great Wall built from a dividend of millions of engineers.
China's GDP is not a financial bubble like that of the United States, but rather a reflection of genuine industrial productivity: the world's largest 5G base station cluster, the world's second largest computing power, and even in future fields such as low-altitude economy and AI, China has begun to surpass the United States and even lead the trend.
China has neither the distorted single-industry structure of the Soviet unx, nor the weak and powerless political dependence on the United States like Japan. China's systemic advantages cannot be replicated, much less dismantled by simple tariffs or sanctions.
China's contribution to global economic growth is projected to remain stable at around 30% in 2026. 
With the first deep financial integration since the expansion of the BRICS countries and the accelerated completion of the "Middle Corridor" trade route, the market share of non-dollar payment systems is expanding at an average annual rate of 15% in the "Global South" countries. 
Furthermore, China is expected to gain a key legal position in 6G standard setting and commercial satellite internet in 2026. This reshaping of power from the ground up signifies that the barriers established by the West through technological standards are crumbling across the board.

目前中国研发人员总量达1079.7万人，居世界首位，16—59岁劳动年龄人口平均受教育年限提升至11.3年。这早已不是廉价劳动力的集合，而是由千万工程师红利筑起的科研长城。  
中国的GDP不是美国那样的金融泡沫，而是实打实的工业生产力体现：全球规模最大的5G基站群、全球第二的算力，甚至在低空经济、人工智能等未来领域，中国已开始反超美国甚至引领风向。  
中国既没有苏联那种畸形的单一产业结构，也没有日本那样对美软弱无力的政治依附。中国的制度优势无法复制，更不是简单关税或制裁就能拆解的。  
预计2026年中国对全球经济增长贡献率将稳定在30%左右。  
随着金砖扩员后首次深度金融融合与“中间走廊”贸易通道加速成型，非美元支付体系在“全球南方”国家的市场份额正以年均15%的速度扩张。  
此外，中国有望在2026年取得6G标准制定与商业卫星互联网的关键法理地位。这种从地基到天基的权力重塑，意味着西方通过技术标准建立的壁垒正在全面崩塌。

Italian Eyes
I would have to opine through both countries Gross Domestic Products by stating that the United States has the higher GDP of almost $30 trillion over China’s GDP of $19 trillion……meaning the United States GDP is almost 60% higher than China’s GDP. 
One difference between the USA and China is that China focuses on engineering its economy at any scale, whereas the United States economy focuses on laws, environmental regulations, and federal and state guidelines, etc. Supposedly this is one reason that the USA has to compete with China especially since China is already “the factory to the planet”, I’d really do not think the USA could reach China’s potential in that category…..yet.

【回答】
我得从两国的国内生产总值来看，美国的GDP更高，接近30万亿美元，而中国的GDP是19万亿美元…这意味着美国的GDP比中国高出近60%。
美国和中国的一个不同点是，中国专注于从各个层面规划经济，而美国经济则更侧重于法律、环境法规以及联邦和州的指导方针等。据说这也是美国必须与中国竞争的原因之一，尤其是中国已经是“世界工厂”，我真的不认为美国能在那个领域达到中国的潜力…至少目前还不行。

xiaoming Guo Ph.D of McGill University. MBA of Queen's University.
No way. The US is doomed to lose the trade war. 
After World War II, the US promoted a free market for its own interest. Most importantly, the WTO. At the beginning of the 21st century, the US allowed China to join the WTO. That was vitally important for the US. Without China joining the WTO with its large labor force, the US was impossible to carry out the Iraq War and Afghan War. The US mobilises resources in the world market for its wars. 
With the free world market, the information revolution at the end of the 20th century triggered globalization. That was a prosperity for all. The US initiated globalization under the Washington Consensus. The globalization benefited the US, for sure, or the US would not have initiated it. The problem is that globalization also benefited China, which is what the US does not allow. The prosperity of globalization is what Carney praised at the WEF about the Pax Americana. 
The trade war against China is to degolobalization. It is a lose-lose game. By targeting China, an unintended consequence is the lowering of the productivity of the world, dragging the US and its allies into a social crisis of homelessness and inflation.
The trade war against China damages the US and its allies more than it hurts China. Enough is enough. Carney quits the trade war and rolls back the 100% tarrif on Chinese EVs. The trade war against China is doing nothing good for the allies. 
The game is who can endure the lose-lose game of the trade war. Because of the interruption of the supply chains, the US and its allies get inflation, and China get deflaction. Can society endure inflation or deflation? Your live long saving for retirement are worth more or less under inflation or deflation? You do the calculation.

【回答】麦吉尔大学博士，女王大学工商管理硕士
做不到。美国注定输掉这场贸易战。
二战后，美国为了自身利益推动自由市场，最重要的是世贸组织。21世纪初，美国允许中国加入世贸组织，这对美国至关重要。没有中国带着庞大劳动力加入世贸组织，美国不可能发动伊拉克战争和阿富汗战争。美国是在世界市场上调动资源来打仗的。
有了自由的世界市场，20世纪末的信息革命引发了全球化。那是所有人的繁荣。美国在华盛顿共识下推动了全球化。全球化当然让美国受益，否则美国不会推动它。问题是全球化也让中国受益，这是美国不允许的。全球化的繁荣正是卡尼在世界经济论坛上赞扬的“美国治下的和平”。
对华贸易战是为了去全球化。这是一场双输的游戏。针对中国的一个意外后果是降低了全球生产率，把美国及其盟友拖入无家可归和通货膨胀的社会危机。
对华贸易战对美国及其盟友的伤害比对中国的伤害更大。适可而止吧。卡尼应该退出贸易战，取消对中国电动汽车100%的关税。对华贸易战对盟友没有任何好处。
这场游戏比的是谁能忍受贸易战的双输局面。由于供应链中断，美国及其盟友面临通货膨胀，而中国面临通货紧缩。社会更能忍受通货膨胀还是通货紧缩？你的养老金长期储蓄在通货膨胀或通货紧缩下是更值钱还是更不值钱？你自己算算吧。

Nona Yobiz Former Financial Auditor (1996–2002)
The question is, does it want to? 
Or rather, will corporations let it? 
Corporations have no home country. They have no allegiance. They have no association. They have money. And they want to make more, that’s the reason for their existence. 
Corporations discovered that making money is easiest when producing in countries where this is cheap and selling the crap produced there in countries that have money. 
That used to be China and the USA. 
Notice how a TV costs about 500 bucks today? Guess what: It also did so 40 years ago. Only that 500 bucks back then was a considerable portion of your paycheck and that TV could, at best, boast that it comes in color. 
We used to buy cheap crap because we wanted to save a buck. And hey, why not? We could buy more crap if we saved on stuff! 
The problem is today that we don’t buy the cheap crap because we want to save a buck. We do it because we can’t afford anything else anymore. Wages have been stagnant for almost 25 years now. If you still have a wage, that is, and aren’t trying to make ends meet in a gig job. 
Can we still turn that around? I fear we cannot. Can we produce domestic goods again? Sure. We could manufacture TVs and consumer electronics here. But not for 500 bucks a piece but rather for about 5000. Can we protect our domestic industry from cheap foreign crap? Certainly. Just up the tariffs another notch or 100. But that doesn’t change that the domestic TV will cost 5000. 
And you cannot afford that, can you?

【回答】前财务审计员（1996年-2002年）
问题是，它想这么做吗？  
或者说，企业会允许吗？  
企业没有祖国。它们没有忠诚。它们没有归属。它们只有钱。而且它们想赚更多，这就是它们存在的理由。  
企业发现，在成本低的国家生产，然后把那里制造的廉价商品卖到有钱的国家，这样赚钱最容易。  
以前是中国和美国。  
注意到现在一台电视大概500美元吗？猜猜看：40年前也是这个价。只是那时候的500美元占工资的一大部分，而那台电视最多只能炫耀它是彩色的。  
我们过去买便宜货是因为想省钱。嘿，为什么不呢？如果东西便宜，我们就能买更多！  
问题是，现在我们买便宜货不是因为想省钱，而是因为我们买不起别的了。工资已经停滞了将近25年。前提是你还有工资可拿，而不是靠打零工勉强度日。
我们还能扭转局面吗？恐怕不能。我们还能再次生产本土商品吗？当然可以。我们可以在这里制造电视和消费电子产品。但不是每台500美元，而是大概5000美元。我们能保护国内产业不受外国廉价货冲击吗？当然可以。只要把关税再提高一点，或者一百点。但这改变不了国产电视会卖5000美元的事实。  
而你买不起，对吧？

Ludwig Nijholt Private Consultant (2022–present)
No, they can’t. The US are the kingpin in a globalized economy. They built it and they rely on it. 
Or, in other words, a trade war is a stupid idea: it’s simply not in the US interest to alienate a major economic player. In 2025 China had a record trade surplus. 
D. Trump is playing a very dangerous game, apparently not realizing that the military power of the US ultimately rests on a relationship of trust with its trade partners and allies. Betraying that trust may cost America more than the likes of Trump seem to realize. 
Economic partners like China and the EU have other options, the US do not. They are fully integrated into the world economy - and NATO us power relies on economic (and political) trust. Being untrustworthy will bear a heavy cost. 
In short, contrary to Trump’s belief that “the world profits from us”, that’s just one side of the picture. Trade is always a two-way street. Essentially, D. Trump simply has a very negative world view. That’s the opposite of the way the US - in every way - was built. In that sense Mr Trump is the most un-American of US presidents. 
He would have been better of sticking with real estate and conning people out of their money. As would indeed be the US and much of the world. He may e a smartman, but he’d definitely not a very intelligent man.

【回答】私人顾问（2022年 - 至今）
不，他们做不到的。美国是全球经济的核心，他们建立了这个体系，也依赖这个体系。  
换句话说，打贸易战是个愚蠢的主意：疏远一个主要经济伙伴根本不符合美国的利益。2025年，中国创下了贸易顺差纪录。
特朗普正在玩一场非常危险的游戏，他似乎没有意识到，美国的军事实力最终建立在与贸易伙伴和盟友的信任关系之上。背弃这种信任可能会让美国付出比特朗普这类人想象中更大的代价。
像中国和欧盟这样的经济伙伴还有其他选择，而美国没有。他们已完全融入世界经济，北约的力量也依赖于经济（和政治）信任。失去信誉将带来沉重的代价。
简而言之，与特朗普认为的“世界都在占我们便宜”相反，那只是事情的一面。贸易永远是双向的。本质上，特朗普只是持有一种非常消极的世界观。这与美国在各方面建立起来的方式完全相反。从这个意义上说，特朗普是最不“美国”的美国总统。  
他还不如继续搞房地产，骗骗别人的钱。对美国乃至世界大部分地区来说，那样反而更好。他也许是个精明人，但绝对算不上有智慧。