红迪讨论：你认为中国历史上是否错过了某个本可以变得更好的机会？

@RichCommercial104
I think of the 1400s when the Ming Dynasty destroyed its own navy by setting all the ships on fire. It was the greatest navy the world had ever seen at the time. If we kept it, our global footprint would have rivalled that of Rome's and Britain's. Instead, we plummeted into isolation and decay, overtaken by tiny ass Japan. We are still playing catch up today. If I could go back and stop it, I would.

我想起明朝那会儿，一把火烧光自家无敌舰队就心塞。那可是当时全球最强海军啊！要是能留着，我们的影响力绝对能跟罗马或大英帝国掰掰手腕。结果呢？直接闭关锁国衰退了，后来连小日本都赶超了我们。到现在我们还在拼命追赶。要是能穿越回去阻止这事儿，我绝对冲在前面。

@Schuano
The problem was the basis of the fleet. It was state built and funded, with no way to be self sustaining. It relied on the imperial Treasury to create them.

问题出在舰队的根基上。这完全是由国家出资建造的，根本没有自我造血能力，全靠国库砸钱养着。

European colonial ventures were different. The people sailing out were not officers of the crown, rather essentially prospectors. They were specifically told that if they found the route to X or cool thing Y, they would get a huge cut of the profits.

欧洲的殖民模式就不一样了。出海的不是政府官员，更像是民间淘金客。上头明说了：谁要是找到通往X的航线或者发现Y这种好东西，就能分到大笔金钱。

This meant that there was always a steady stream of people wanting to make voyages and join the ships.

这就意味着总会有人抢着出海，根本不缺人手。

China also didn't lose the Navy after this.

再说了，明朝之后中国海军也没彻底凉透。

The Zheng clan in the early 1600's was the official Ming Chinese Navy and they were running all of the trade in the South China sea, making 8 times more than the Dutch east India company. One of the leaders, Zheng Zhilong, actually spoke Portuguese and Dutch and was busy building hybrid European Chinese ships in the 1630's. The Dutch actually destroyed these super modern ships in 1633 in a surprise attack.

17世纪初的郑氏家族就是明廷名义上的官方海军力量，掌控着整个南海贸易，赚得比荷兰东印度公司还多八倍。首领郑芝龙甚至会说葡萄牙语和荷兰语，在1630年代忙着搞中西合璧的新型战船。结果荷兰人在1633年搞突袭，把这些超前的战舰全给毁了。

Zheng Zhillong turned around and defeated the Dutch in a second battle afterwards and convinced the Dutch to leave the area for a decade.

郑芝龙转头就在第二次对决中干翻了荷兰人，逼得他们十年不敢再来这片海域。

Zheng Zhilong would have been the person to lead a Chinese naval revolution, but he was overtaken by land events. The fall of the Ming would cause the capture of the most of the most famous Ming admiral, and he would be killed in Qing custody.

本来郑芝龙完全能带领中国海军实现变革，可惜陆上局势突变。明朝灭亡导致这位著名的明军水师将领被俘，最终在清廷关押期间遇害。

@jcarlosn
I’m still very much a learner here. I study Chinese and Chinese history, but I’m also a foreigner, and I know my understanding is partial and imperfect.

作为中文和中国历史的学生，我始终是个外国初学者，深知自己的理解还比较片面，不够透彻。

That said, I really understand why that moment feels so frustrating. The Ming voyages were extraordinary, and it’s natural to imagine what might have been.

不过，我特别能理解那种惋惜感。郑和下西洋的壮举确实惊艳，让人忍不住畅想“如果当时……会怎样”。

One thing that helped me see it a bit differently is that Zheng He’s fleet wasn’t really a permanent global navy in the modern sense, but more a series of state-sponsored diplomatic expeditions. When priorities shifted, China didn’t so much burn an empire as refocus on what felt like the most urgent threats at the time, especially on land.

换个角度看，郑和的船队更像国家赞助的系列外交使团，而不是现代意义上的常驻全球海军。当战略重心转移时，明朝并非自毁帝国，而是集中应对当时更紧迫的陆地威胁。

And global dominance wasn’t an obvious or inevitable outcome back then. The kind of overseas empires Britain later built depended on economic and political systems that simply didn’t exist yet.

况且在当时的背景下，全球霸权并非显而易见或必然的结果。后来英国建立的那种海外帝国，依赖的是当时尚未形成的经济和政治体系。

To me it feels less like a single fatal mistake, and more like one historical path closing while others opened. But I agree it’s a fascinating turning point, and I still feel that same sense of “what if” when I read about it.

对我而言，这更像一条历史路径的闭合与其他路径的开启，而非某个致命错误。但我也觉得这个转折点确实迷人，每次读到这段历史，心里还是会冒出那句：“要是当初……该多好啊”。

@DarkUnable4375
If there was no change in the type of government, how is anything going to change? Asking one person, born into power, surrounded by eunuchs, and expect Ming will have a lasting stable government? Ming fell to the Ming farmers, not Qing.

如果连政体都变不了，那还能指望有什么改变？指望一个生来就掌权、身边围着一群太监的人，能让大明长治久安？明朝明明是亡在自家农民军手里的，关大清什么事。

@RichCommercial104
It fell to the peace-loving hippies who did not see that the world was changing and that global trade needed global muscle.

这锅得由那些爱好和平的嬉皮士来背，他们压根没看清世界在变天，全球贸易是需要硬实力撑腰的。

@Reveniant
Yes and no. It's like three kingdoms, the resolution (jin) is originally Wei but from Sima Clan instead of Cao (and by the time Wu fell, Cao fell into obscurity quite some time.)

是，也不是。这就像三国，最终结局晋国的本质是魏国，但掌权的是司马家而不是曹家。（而且等到东吴灭亡时，曹家早就没落很久了。）

Li ZiCheng went through the imperial palace first, but too weak to resist the Manchurian invasion, backed by Border Guard defectors. Hence he is reduced to a history footnote but fail to produce proper dynasty.

李自成虽然先打进了皇宫，但实力太菜扛不住满清入关，何况还有边军倒戈。所以他只能当个历史小注脚，没能真正建立朝代。

Also, it fell because of land collectivism (most of the lands are under the royal family, without their tax and contributions) and famine by small ice age. (This also triggers nomads to invade China because whatever strife they endure, nomads were far worse.)

另外，明朝垮台还因为土地都归了皇亲国戚（他们不交税不纳粮），加上小冰河期闹饥荒。（这还逼得游牧民族疯狂南下——毕竟中原地区再惨，还能比草原上更活不下去？）

@M4gic4lM3
I feel like the history of China is, over and over again: 1. Prosper; 2. Freak out that the rest of the world is there; 3. 锁国政策; 4. Collapse, revolution; 5. Repeat. Feels like we’re in the middle of 3 right now

感觉中国历史就是个无限循环：1、强盛；2、发现世界那么大开始焦虑；3、闭关锁国；4、崩溃，革命；5、东山再起。感觉如今这情形，是到了第三步中段了。

@xiatiandeyun01
China and the Soviet unx shouldn't have been at war back then.

中苏当年真不该干仗。

@Particular_Shirt4298
A unified China and USSR could have accomplished so much together

一个团结的中国和苏联本来能一起干成多少大事儿啊。

@420ohms
It's good they split. Growing up in the US we we're told the red Russians we're our number one exetential threat and must be defeated, anyone with them was guilty by association.

他们决裂是好事。在美国长大的我们都被告知，红色毛子是头号生存威胁必须干趴，跟毛子混的都是连带有罪。

We believed the collapse of the USSR meant Communism was defeated which let the CPC fly under the radar.

我们当时觉得苏联一垮，共产主义就完犊子了，这让***成功苟进了发育期。(***政党或名字 上下同)

I think we all believed the Chinese were brainwashed present farmers who would never match us so we weren't really worried about y'all being red. The intense anti-Chinese propaganda on US social media is a recent phenomenon that started around 2016 because our leaders finally started to realize this is no longer true. Thankfully, for the future of humanity, they realized it way too late.

我猜大伙儿都以为中国人是只会种地的洗脑农民，永远追不上我们，所以压根没把你们当红色威胁。美国社交媒体上这股疯狂黑中国的妖风是2016年左右才开始的，因为我们们领导层终于回过味儿来——现实早不是那回事了。谢天谢地，为了人类的未来，他们这顿悟来得够晚的。

@Pillowish
The craziest thing is that people still believe in anti-China propaganda until now despite what the US is doing and they still parrot the same old propaganda that occurred for a very long time now like a broken record

最离谱的是，都到现在了还有人信那些反华宣传，美国自己干的破事摆在那儿，这些人还跟复读机似的念叨那些陈年老谣。

@420ohms
If it makes you feel any better most regular people I know in real life are at most apathetic and mostly uneducated about what's going on in China lately.

说句让你宽心的话，我身边大多数普通人对中国近况其实最多就是无感，而且基本都不太了解。

@Unlikely_Target_3560
Well, the fact that the US is shit doesn't make whoever opposes them automatically good. There are very serious reasons to dislike and criticise the CCP. US shittiness doesn't diminish that.

美国烂归烂，不代表跟它对着干的就是好人。讨厌和批评***的理由多的是，而且都很正当，美国的拉胯可不会让这些理由打折扣。(***政党或名字 上下同)

@ComedianGlass804
Unless all the reasons to dislike and criticise the CCP are fabricated with 1.6 billion dollars taxpayer money.

除非所有不喜欢和批评中国***的理由，都是用16亿美元纳税人的钱编造出来的。

@Unfathomable_Asshole
Yes, but China being isolationist and the USSR being imperialistic, they were not exactly a match made in heaven. Russia would have wanted to govern China in Moscow if you joined the USSR.

话是这么说没错，但中国当时走的是闭关锁国的路子，苏联那边又满脑子帝国主义扩张，两方压根不是一路人。真要是并入苏联，毛子怕不是要把中国管成莫斯科的一个省。

@PlsNoNotThat
Also they shared zero geopolitical goals, and little to no sociological values.

而且他们在地缘政治目标上完全没共同语言，社会价值观也基本不对付。

Plus Russia really wanted that water and mineral rich northern border territory. Which is why they forced four boarder expansions into China.

再说了，俄罗斯当时可是眼红那片水资源丰富、矿产扎堆的北部边境地区。所以才会硬生生往中国方向扩张了四次边境线。

@MauschelMusic
That's not the issue at all. China respected Stalin's position at the head of the global communist movement. They turned on the USSR when Khrushchev denounced Stalin.

这根本不是问题所在。中国当时尊重斯大林在全球共产主义运动中的领导地位。后来赫鲁晓夫公开批判斯大林，中苏关系才转向对立。

@Mayor__Defacto
Head of the global communist movement is not the same as head of all policy. Imperial powers don’t have peers, only enemies and subjects - and China would have been treated as a Subject.

全球共运的老大又不是所有政策都得听他的。帝国主义国家眼里没有平起平坐的朋友，只有敌人和小弟——中国要是跟了苏联，妥妥被当成跟班。

Besides that, hitching themselves to that trainwreck would have been a disaster. Deng saved China.

再说了，跟那种翻车的破船绑一起纯属找死。多亏邓公把中国救了回来。

@MauschelMusic
Imperialism is extractive capitalism, where the metropol extracts resources from the periphery and turns them into finished products, which is sells back. This is not how the Society unx acted. The emphasis was on developing the satellite stares' industrial, agricultural, and military capacity so the member countries of the USSR could support each other.

帝国主义就是掠夺式资本主义，宗主国从外围地区榨取资源，加工成成品再卖回去。苏联可不是这么干的。人家重点发展卫星国的工农业和军事实力，让加盟共和国能互相扶持。

Nor were they aggressively expansionist like the West. At the end of WWII the USSR and the west divided up their spheres of influence. Stalin respected the agreement, refusing to support communist movements in countries like Greece which were designated as within the Western sphere, while the West aggressively infiltrated the Soviet sphere and worked to foment uprisings and coups

而且他们也不像西方那样搞侵略性扩张。二战结束那会儿苏联和西方划好了势力范围。斯大林可是守规矩的，像希腊这种划给西方阵营的国家，他就没支持当地的共产主义运动。反过来西方却拼命渗透苏联地盘，到处煽动叛乱搞政变。

I mean, there are a lot of things you can criticize the USSR for, but imperialism is not one of them.

要我说，苏联黑料确实不少，但扣帝国主义帽子真不合适。

China were big supporters of Stalin, who had helped them through a long and extremely difficult struggle. The sino-soviet split was explicitly in response to Khruschev's denunciation of Stalin which they viewed, not unreasonably, as a betrayal of the communist movement.

中国当年可是斯大林铁粉，毕竟他帮中国熬过了漫长又艰难的奋斗期。后来中苏闹翻，直接导火索就是赫鲁晓夫批判斯大林——在中国看来这简直就是对共产主义事业的背叛，这么想也没毛病。

@FeixinHan

不是因为觉得赫鲁晓夫背叛共产主义运动，而是因为认为由他领导是共产主义运动的灾难。毛泽东主席其实对斯大林非常警惕，但尊重他的领袖能力。这是种成熟智慧的政治态度。赫鲁晓夫让其他人无法信任其领导力。

@MauschelMusic
Alright, that's a fair distinction. But they believed his leadership would be a disaster because his first act was to denounce Stalin and his government.

好吧，这个区别确实说得通。但大伙儿觉得他当领导绝对要完犊子，因为他上任第一把火就是公开批判斯大林和他那届政府。

@FeixinHan

是的，赫鲁晓夫的秘密报告是个非常不负责的政治行为。暴露出的问题让毛泽东感到愤慨，他在中国国内发表讲话，甚至明确要求党内一定要警惕“我们中间的赫鲁晓夫”。秘密报告帮助威望不足的赫鲁晓夫树立了一定程度的威信，但引发的后果让整个阵营都难以接受，甚至他本人也无法承受。其实印象里毛泽东和赫鲁晓夫早期执政的关系不算很差，双方交恶各自都有责任，还有些阴差阳错的小事件把缓和的信号变成了加剧矛盾。事后来看的话，甚至有些戏剧性。

@12bEngie
This is so stupid. The USSR did not have imperial subjects of extraction. They forcibly industrialized all of their socialist republics at a massive loss to the republic. Even until the end, every east bloc and southern republic was a financial DRAIN on the USSR.

这也太扯了。苏联哪有什么被剥削的殖民地啊？他们是用牺牲各加盟共和国利益的方式，强行推进工业化。直到最后，每个东欧和南部的共和国都是苏联的财政拖油瓶。

What you’re saying is like saying Mississippi is a subject of american imperialism. Even though so much more is put into it than taken.

你这说法就好比说密西西比州是美国帝国主义的殖民地一样离谱。明明联邦给它投的钱远多于从它那儿拿的。

@stray009
The Russians left China no choice

毛子把中国逼得没办法了

@Ok-Awareness4778
What if the British never introduced opium to China? What if western powers never took advantage of China and the century of humiliation never happened? What would China be like today if it had continued to remain isolated for some time?

如果当年英国佬没往我们这儿倒腾鸦片会怎样？要是西方列强没趁机欺负中国，那段百年屈辱史压根没发生过呢？再假如中国继续闭关锁国一阵子，现在会是什么画风啊？

@BenderSenderStick
You’re assuming humiliation caused weakness. History suggests weakness invited humiliation. Also, if isolation guaranteed greatness, North Korea would be a paradise.

你把因果搞反了，不是受辱才变弱，而是先弱了才挨打。再说了，要是闭关锁国就能成赢家，朝鲜早就是人间天堂了。

@Reveniant
Isolation and trade protectionism invites fleet to knock on your border doors for capitalism and free trade, China learnt this well. Now it probably is others turn, as they are very kind in sharing values.

闭关锁国搞贸易保护，迟早会被人开着舰队来敲门“送”资本主义和自由贸易，这道理中国可太懂了。现在该轮到某些国家体验体验了，毕竟他们那么爱分享“价值观”。

@SlingsAndArrows7871
Opium was in China since the 6th century. It spread in the 19th century because the British flooded the markets, but also because there were domestic reasons that they could. I think the real question is how to make domestic structures stronger.

鸦片在中国其实6世纪就有了。19世纪泛滥起来，一方面是英国人往市场里猛灌，另一方面也是我们自己内部有漏洞可钻。我觉得真正该琢磨的是，怎么把自家篱笆扎得更牢。

The British did so because China wanted to be paid in silver for its exports, not other trade goods. Looking for something Chinese would accept the Portuguese, and then even more the British, found opium.

英国人这么干，是因为中国出口只收白银，不要别的货。葡萄牙人先开始找中国人肯收的东西，后来英国人更狠，直接盯上了鸦片。

Portuguese, and then even more so, British, traders, brought it in larger amounts, which they could do because there were changes in agricultural and trade at the time, but because also because they found many takers.

葡萄牙商人，特别是后来的英国商人，运鸦片越来越猛。他们能得手，既是因为当时农业和贸易格局变了，也是因为发现这玩意儿根本不愁卖。

But why did Chinese buyers want it? Why did opium addition spread so quickly in China, but not in other parts of the world at the same time?

但为什么中国人自己非要买呢？为什么鸦片瘾在中国传得比哪儿都快，同期其他地方就没这么严重？

- Social status. Opium was already associated with urban elites with leisure time. It started off as a prestige addiction, not something shameful.

- 面子工程。鸦片早就是城里有闲贵族的标配了。刚开始抽这个属于高端瘾，一点儿不丢人。

- A shortage of copper currency meant that peole were open to other means of exchange, accepted in many locations and easily re-sold. Opium fit that bill.

- 铜钱不够用，大家就想着找别的硬通货，最好到处都能用、转手也方便。鸦片正好符合条件。

- By the later 19th century, many local governments relied heavily on opium taxes to fund administration and war efforts. Officials tolerated it instead of combating it.

- 到19世纪后期，好多地方官府就指着鸦片税发工资打仗呢。官员们也就睁只眼闭只眼，根本不舍得真禁。

@Imaginary_Pace4341
Without the intervention of foreign civilizations, China is as corrupt as the Qing Dynasty. Everything in modern civilization is brought by the United States and Britain. I am Chinese, and I still think so.

没有外国文明的介入，中国就跟大清一样腐败。现代文明的一切都是英美带来的。我是中国人，但我还是这么觉得。

@Minimum_Ad7876

看你第一句话我就知道你是中国人，哪怕当年八国联军的子嗣们都说不出这么无耻的话来。

@milkcheesepotatoes
Cixi declaring war on literally everyone during the boxer rebellion.

慈禧在义和团时期，几乎跟全世界都宣战了。

@Low_M_H
Last hundred years there are many regrets. Unfortunately, there are no turning back and China have to move forward and do their best.

过去这一百年，遗憾确实不少。但世上没有后悔药，中国只能往前看，尽力做到最好。

@Unable_Insurance_391
Historical Dynasty era China obviously should have thought about colonization.

中国古代那些王朝啊，早该琢磨殖民扩张这事儿了。

@CauliflowerBig3133
Can't do that. Colonization is very privatized. They need competing governments that the Chinese don't have. Chinese unity is a blessing and a curse.

搞不来的。殖民那套现在都是私营化玩法了，需要多政府竞争机制，我们中国压根没这套。中国的统一啊，真是把双刃剑。

@ThroatEducational271
Retrospectively, a few.

回头想想，确实有。

Resolving the civil war better would have avoided the Taiwan situation for starters, then the west can’t on one hand accept a “One China,” policy on the other hand virtually treat it as a separate nation to incessantly piss off China.

首先，如果当年内战处理得更妥当，台湾（地区）问题就不会是现在这样。西方也不能一边嘴上承认“一个中国”，一边又暗戳戳把台湾（地区）当独立G家，没完没了地恶心中国。

During negotiations between China and the a British, the British wanted to install “national security laws,”before the handover. It was Mainland China that blocked it and instead put a law into Hong Kong’s mini-constitution to implement a National Security (article 23 of HK’s constitution).

中英谈判的时候，英国本来想在移交前给香港（特区）塞个“国安法”。结果是中国大陆拦住了，改成在香港（特区）基本法里加了一条（就是第23条），要求香港（特区）自己立法维护国家安全。

Unfortunately despite an attempt to install such a law, the HK government failed to do so. But it was in the constitution, which was agreed between the Mainland Chinese, the British government, reviewed by Hong Kong law makers and widely discussed in public in Hong Kong; and accepted.

可惜香港（特区）政府一直没搞定这个立法。但这可是白纸黑字写进基本法的，当初中英政府都同意，香港（特区）立法会也审议过，社会上也讨论得很充分，大家都认账的。

Also there should have been at least sketch to what happens after the 50 transitional period. Because nobody really knows what happens to Hong Kong on 1 July 2047 when the agreement expires. Is it the end of the SAR or does it continue? I guess this is a topic that will become very hot in the next few years.

另外，那50年过渡期结束后到底会怎样，至少该有个大概框架吧。现在谁也不知道2047年7月1日协议到期后香港（特区）会变成什么样——特别行政区还存不存在？估计这个话题过几年要爆。

The real estate situation, while the Chinese central government and booming provincial governments spent years trying to cool the housing market, they failed and they failed to recognise the risky borrowing and selling practices by big developers.

房地产这摊子事也是。中央和各地政府折腾这么多年想给楼市降温，结果没压住，还没看穿那些大开发商高杠杆卖楼的骚操作。

The subsequent crackdown led to a sharp correction in the market which the Chinese are still experiencing. However, arguably they avoided a Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae fiasco, which would have been far worse.

后来一顿猛调控，市场直接崩了，到现在还没缓过劲。不过话说回来，总比搞成美国“两房”那种史诗级崩盘要强点。

Jumping on the renewables and clean energy bandwagon. China had the industrial capacity to capitalise on this industry much earlier than when they signed the Paris Treaty.

跟风搞清洁能源这块也是。中国其实在签《巴黎协定》之前，早就有工业实力可以全力冲刺这个赛道了。

While it’s great that the massive economies of scale in China brought solar panels and wind turbines to affordable and practical levels for the world, they really could have done it earlier.

虽然现在靠规模效应把光伏板和风机价格打下来造福全球是挺好，但明明可以更早动手的。

Easier visa and visa free entry. China’s strict visa rules effectively closed China from tourism. In recent years as visa rules have been relaxed, the growth of vloggers around the world has shown the real China rather than the western media’s carefully curated China. That would have helped debunk western propaganda and lies regarding China.

签证政策太严也是个问题。以前卡得死，直接把旅游大门关上了。最近几年放宽签证后，全球那么多博主跑来拍视频，让大家看到了真实的中国，而不是西方媒体精心剪辑的那个版本。这要是早点搞，早就能拆穿不少西方黑中国的谣言了。

That’s a few I can think of.

暂时就想到这些。

@WaysOfG
I think for HK it would entirely depend on how useful it remains as a port city. With the way China is structured there's always a need for some place where things are done differently to rest or China yet have some degree of access into China

我觉得香港（特区）的未来完全取决于它作为港口城市的价值还剩多少。中国的体制决定了总得有个地方能搞点不一样的，既能和内地保持一定联系，又能让内地喘口气。

@TheEmpireOfSun
You are right about west lying lot about China and it's good it opened to world to see it. But look at the top comment in this thread. Most upvoted shit is that Soviet unx and China should have been united to achieve more. Like what the fuck? That's exactly mindset that's presented in west.

你说得对，西方确实编了很多关于中国的瞎话，幸好现在中国对外开放让大家能亲眼看看真相。但你瞅瞅这帖子最火的评论是什么？被顶到第一的狗屁言论居然是苏联和中国当初该合并才能更牛掰。我真是服了，这特么不就是西方那套典型思维吗？

@Key-Needleworker-702
In WW2 hong kong and macao should have been taken back faster. Chinese civil war taiwan should have been taken back. tonnes of issues solved if that happened.

二战那会儿，香港（特区）和澳门就该早点收回来。国共内战的时候，台湾（地区）也该顺势拿下了。要是当初这么干了，现在一堆破事早解决了。

@kidfromtheast
If Taiwan is taken, there will be no semiconductor industry in Taiwan. The US will not let its industry move to an adversary. It is US policy to move some of its industries to allies while keeping those industries from its adversaries. For example, of how the US tried to gain ally, at that time, I think Indonesia got offered to build a semiconductor industry but Indonesia govt responded “not an industry that require lots of manpower; not a priority”. Then, the semiconductor industry is moved to Malaysia. The policy is named “CoCom”

台湾（地区）一旦被拿下，岛上的半导体产业就没了。美国不可能让自家产业落到对手手里。他们的政策就是把部分产业转移到盟友那儿，同时严防死守不让对手沾边。举个例子，当年美国为了拉拢印尼，想帮他们建半导体产业线，结果印尼政府回了一句“这行用不着多少人手，不是我们的重点”。得，半导体产业转头就去了马来西亚。这套操作就叫“CoCom”（巴黎统筹委员会）。

(CoCom was formed after the Korean War. Probably in response to that)

（CoCom是朝鲜战争后搞出来的，估计就是针对那事儿）

The current status quo is beneficial for both parties.

现在这局面对两边其实都有好处。

Note: Even then, Japan seen as ally, get smashed around with Toshiba when Japan GDP per capita actually surpassed the US. So, at some point, the benefits must be returned to the US. This might happen to Taiwan as well with the CHIPS Act and so on

补充：就算是盟友也得悠着点。当年日本人均GDP都超美国了，东芝不还是被美国收拾得够呛。所以啊，好处迟早得还回去。台湾（地区）这边搞不好也会被《芯片法案》之类的安排上。

@jaumougaauco
I think there was an attempt on Taiwan that wasn't particularly successful. Also, I kind of remember reading that China was threatened with a nuclear strike if they tried to take Taiwan. So I don't think there was really much opportunity there.

我记得好像有过一次对台湾（地区）的尝试，但效果不怎么样。而且我隐约记得看过报道说，如果中国试图拿下台湾（地区），就会被威胁要挨核打击。所以我觉得那边其实没什么机会可乘。

@WaysOfG
it would only be possible if Taiwan exists in a vacuum, as long as American interests remain in the region there was no possibility of a takeover without inviting escalation

除非台湾（地区）是个与世隔绝的真空地带，否则只要美国利益还插足这片区域，任何接管行动都必然引发局势升级。

@notthattmack
So Hong Kong could have had the successful 20th century that Shenzen had?

所以香港（特区）本来也能像深圳那样在20世纪起飞？

@Schuano
Blame the British for Hong Kong.

香港（特区）这事儿得怪英国人。

The European colonies in China sat out the war for 4.5 years after 1937. The Japanese didn't attack them and they were getting irritated. Hong Kong especially was a huge source for weapons to the Chinese. Ships could sail there legally and then the Chinese would offload weapons and move them up the pearl river.

1937年后，欧洲在华租界在战争里苟了四年半。日本人没动他们，他们自己倒先急了。香港（特区）尤其是个对华军火大本营，船只合法进港后，中国人就把武器卸下来沿珠江往上运。

When the war started in 1937, China had 4 connections to the outside after Japan took the coast. Hanoi --> Kunming, Russia --> xinjiang, Rangoon--> Kunming, and Hong Kong --> Changsha.

1937年开战时，日本占了海岸线后中国只剩四条外联通道：河内到昆明、俄罗斯到新疆、仰光到昆明，还有香港（特区）到长沙。

The Japanese shut down Hanoi after the fall of France in 1940, the Russian route shut after the Germans invaded in 1941.

1940年法国沦陷后日本人掐断了河内线，1941年德国入侵又把俄罗斯线给断了。

In the latter half of 1941, Chiang could see what was likely to happen and offered the British Chinese troops to defend Burma and Hong Kong. .

1941年下半年，老蒋预判到要出事，主动提出派中国军队帮英国守缅甸和香港（特区）。

The British turned him down. Chiang then said that, if Hong Kong could hold out a month, the Chinese could get a 200,000 man army to it to defend it. He also moved troops to the Burma border.

英国人给拒了。老蒋又说只要香港（特区）能撑一个月，中国就能调20万大军过去协防。他还把部队调到了缅甸边境。

As it was, Hong Kong fell in only 16 days. The Chinese army that would have gone to assist is a big part of why China was able to win the Battle of Changsha in January of 1942. The Chinese troops for Burma aren't allowed to start walking into Burma until the end of January.

结果香港（特区）16天就沦陷了。原本要去支援的部队，后来成了1942年1月长沙会战能打赢的主力。而派去缅甸的中国军队，拖到一月底才被允许开拔。

But you can imagine a different timeline where Britain is more receptive to Chinese help and Hong Kong stays unoccupied.

但可以想象另一种可能：要是英国当时接受了中国援助，香港（特区）或许就不会沦陷了。

@Fickle_Life_2102
Hong Kong remaining part of the British empire was honestly massively beneficial to China - hell they didn’t even want it back that much for the next 30 odd years, it was the British gov that brought up the topic of the lease expiring. Hong Kong post war was a mess from the Japanese occupation, keeping it British run allowed investment into it and for it to be used as an entreport for China which massively helped them and the surrounding area.

说真的，香港（特区）留在英国管治下对中国其实巨有利——好家伙，之后三十多年他们都没太想收回，还是英国政府主动提租约到期的。战后香港（特区）被日本占领搞得一团糟，让英国继续管着能吸引投资，还能当中国的贸易中转站，这对中国和周边地区帮助可太大了。

Take that all away in the 40s and Hong Kong becomes a slightly more developed part of a still very closed off China right up until the 80s

要是40年代就全收回来，香港（特区）顶多变成封闭中国里稍微发达点的地区，这种状态可能一直持续到80年代。

@jumbocards
The Venetians invented modern glass mirror was arguably the moment renaissance happened. China missed the opportunity at that time due to instability 13-14th century.

威尼斯人率先发展并垄断了早期现代玻璃镜制造技术，可以说是文艺复兴的起点。中国那时候（13-14世纪）乱成一锅粥，完美错过了这个机会。

I won’t go into the details why glass and modern mirrors was so crucial to advances in everything.

具体为什么玻璃和现代镜子对各项进步这么关键，我就不展开细说了。

@MauschelMusic
Venezuela. The USSR would have sent troops and support along with equipment. China's reluctance to actually militarily support their allies against Western aggression is going to become a big problem for Chinese soft power as the US increasingly turns to naked violence to shore up its crumbling empire.

委内瑞拉这事儿，要是苏联还在，早就派兵送装备全力支援了。现在美国为了撑住自己快散架的老帝国，越来越不要脸直接动粗，可中国却连对盟友的军事支援都扭扭捏捏——这么搞下去，中国人的文化软实力迟早要出大问题。

@Fickle_Life_2102
There is no scenario in which China could’ve influenced the result. Sending troops would prompt an immediate American response before they could get there, sending weapons would be pointless, partially because they take time to train, partially because the gulf in capability is just so vast, but mostly because the VP pretty much seems to have sold Maduro out (lol).

中国根本不可能左右局势。派兵的话，美国立马就会在他们赶到前出手；送武器也没什么用，一方面培训需要时间，另一方面双方实力差距实在太大，但最主要的是副总统好像已经把马杜罗给卖了（笑死）。

Also ya say “western aggression” It’s uhhh, really just American. The rest of the west isn’t involved at all.

还有你说“西方侵略”嘛……呃，其实基本就美国在搞事。其他西方国家压根没掺和进来。

@redodge
Preserving historic Beijing. It's a small issue in the scheme of things, but it strikes me as a sad waste.

守护北京老城区。说起来这事不大，但真让人觉得挺可惜的，白瞎了。

In 1950, architects Liang Sicheng and Chen Zhanxiang proposed to the new PRC government that the historic core of Beijing be preserved as a cultural zone. At the time, the city was one of the largest "premodern" cities left in the world. They argued that new industrial and administrative areas should be build outside the city walls, to the west.

1950年，建筑大师梁思成和陈占祥曾向新中国政府提议，把北京老城区完整保留下来建成文化区。那时候，北京可是全球数一数二保存完好的“前现代”古城。他们主张把新的工业区和行政区建到城墙外面，西边那块儿。

Instead, the leadership pushed forward with demolishing and redeveloping the old city, tearing down the city walls and much else besides. The historic core was further hit by the Cultural Revolution and the construction frenzy of recent decades. But the basis of carelessness towards inheritance, in a way, laid down at the start.

结果呢，当时领导层还是推倒了老城搞重建，不仅拆了城墙，连带着毁了不少老东西。后来老城区又经历了文革的冲击，再加上这几十年的大拆大建。不过说实话，这种对历史传承不上心的底子，某种程度上从开头就埋下了。

Of course, this process was repeated in cities across the country. But given the size and cultural value of Beijing specifically, it stands out as such an important loss.

当然啦，全国各地的城市基本都走了这个老路。但北京毕竟地位特殊，规模又大、文化价值又高，这么一折腾，损失可就太扎心了。

@Illustrious-Advice16
When Sun Yat-sen let Yuan Shikai become president and the way they dealt with the macartney embassy. The 2 biggest mistake China made.

孙中山让袁世凯当总统，还有清朝处理马戛尔尼使团那事儿，堪称中国近代两大败笔。

@Knight-of-Riverwood
If the nationalist won the civil war, China would have become a developed country and world superpower in 1980. Imagine Taiwan’s average GDP times Chinese population.

要是当年国民党赢了内战，中国八十年代就能成发达国家兼世界霸主了。想想台湾（地区）的人均GDP乘以中国的人口，那画面太美不敢看。