《高堡奇人》的情景可能发生吗？

Jon Mixon
No, it was never possible..for variety of reasons.
These include:
Germany never had a decent navy - If you are going to invade the United States and you expect that effort to result in a win, you'll have to have a significant naval force both to transport troops to the US mainland, as well blockade the ports on all three sides (Atlantic, Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico) to prevent the US from obtaining supplies from overseas. The Kriegsmarine (Germany's WWII naval force) was never much of a threat after the sinking of the battleship Bismarck in 1941; and besides its U-boat fleet, it spent the war either being destroyed by the Allies or hiding in port.
Germany had no significant amounts of long-range air transport - Not only could Germany not bring forces over by sea, they would have had a hell of a time transporting them by air. The Luftwaffe never made air transport a serious strategic goal and , as such, it was unable to do more than provide minor amounts of logistical support throughout the war on the same continent as Germany. North America was farther away, and it required more air capabilities than Germany had at any point during the war.

不，由于各种原因，这是不可能的。
这些原因包括：
德国从未拥有过一支像样的海军——如果你打算入侵美国并期望这一努力取得胜利，你必须拥有一支重要的海军力量，既可以将部队运送到美国本土，也可以封锁三面（大西洋、太平洋和墨西哥湾）的港口，以防止美国从海外获得供应。自1941年俾斯麦号战列舰沉没后，德国的二战海军力量——Kriegsmarine（纳粹德国的海军部队）从未构成太大威胁；除了它的U艇舰队外，它在战争中要么被盟军摧毁，要么躲在港口里。
德国没有大量远程空中运输工具——德国不仅不能通过海路运送部队，他们通过空中运输也会有极大的困难。德国空军从未将空中运输作为一个严肃的战略目标，因此，它在整个战争中只能提供小量的后勤支持，而且是在与德国同一大陆的范围内。北美距离更远，需要比德国在战争任何时期拥有的更多的空中能力。

Germany never had enough men - Germany’s manpower problems were acute by 1943, and by the middle of 1944, it was raising and fielding armies of men older than 40 and children under 18. By the beginning of 1945, teen-aged boys were being conscxted. While the US experienced troop shortages in the later years of the war, it still fielded an army larger than Germany's. While it used this army around the world, had the German conflict outlasted Japan’s defeat, then several million troops and much of the US Navy could have been transferred to the European theater, thus sealing Germany’s fate.
Germany’s support here in the United States was always limited - Many people still held grudges from the first World War and most German-Americans viewed themselves to be Americans first and German descendants second, The novel proposed that a “fifth column” existed within the US that would have allowed a successful German invasion to occur. In reality however, invading the United States would have been an event so fraught with peril that unless Germany was able to recruit troops from its conquered territories, it would have lost the conflict before it ever began. It certainly couldn’t have depended upon traitors in the US to sway the conflict in their favor.

德国从来没有足够的人手——到1943年，德国的人力问题非常严重，到1944年中期，它已经开始招募和部署40岁以上的男性和18岁以下的儿童。到1945年初，十几岁的男孩被征召入伍。虽然美国在战争后期经历了部队短缺，但它的军队规模仍然大于德国。虽然它在世界各地使用这支军队，但如果德国的冲突持续到日本的失败之后，那么数百万军队和大部分美国海军可能会被转移到欧洲战区，从而决定德国的命运。
进入美国的话，德国获得的支持始终有限——许多人仍然对第一次世界大战怀恨在心，大多数德裔美国人认为自己首先是美国人，其次才是德国后裔，小说提出在美国国内存在一个“第五纵队”，将允许德国成功入侵。但实际上，入侵美国将是一个充满危险的事件，除非德国能够从其征服的领土招募部队，否则它将在冲突开始之前就已经输了它当然不可能依靠美国的叛徒来改变冲突，使之对他们有利。

Indeed, the vast territory of the United States means that any attempt to conquer America will face enormous challenges. If Germany had envisioned a war against the United States during World War II, conquering the East Coast alone could have taken up to ten years. Such a task is almost impossible in practice, as it not only requires overcoming huge geographical obstacles, but also facing the powerful military power and enormous industrial production capacity of the United States.
In addition, the geographical distance between the two oceans of the United States provides it with a natural defensive advantage. The Atlantic and Pacific have become insurmountable barriers, making it difficult for Germany's naval forces to play a role in these vast waters, especially in the face of US and other allied naval forces. Moreover, even if Germany can achieve some initial victories in a certain region, it will be very difficult to maintain these achievements and continue to advance, as the United States has the ability to mobilize resources and manpower from its vast territory to counterattack.
Therefore, the war between Germany and the United States will be a long and extremely costly conflict, and the chances of victory are very slim. This situation has never happened in history and is unlikely to happen, as the German leadership must be aware of the impracticality of this strategic goal. In fact, during World War II, Germany's military operations were mainly concentrated in Europe and North Africa, without launching direct military attacks on the mainland of the United States.

确实，美国广阔的国土意味着任何试图征服美国的行动都会面临巨大的挑战。如果德国在二战期间设想对美国发动战争，那么仅仅征服美国东海岸就可能需要花费长达十年的时间。这样的任务在实际中几乎是不可能的，因为它不仅需要克服巨大的地理障碍，还需要面对美国强大的军事力量和其庞大的工业生产能力。
此外，美国的两洋相隔的地理位置为其提供了天然的防御优势。大西洋和太平洋成为了难以逾越的屏障，德国的海军力量在这些广阔水域中难以发挥作用，尤其是在面对美国海军和其他盟国海军力量的情况下。而且，即使德国能够在某个地区取得一些初步胜利，要保持这些成果并继续推进将会非常困难，因为美国有能力从其庞大的国土内部调动资源和人力进行反击。
因此，德国对美国的战争将会是一场漫长且代价极其高昂的冲突，而且胜算非常渺茫。这种情况在历史上从未发生过，也不太可能发生，因为德国领导层必须意识到这种战略目标的不切实际性。实际上，二战期间德国的军事行动主要集中在欧洲和北非，而没有对美国本土发起过直接的军事攻击。

Peter Hawkins
No, the economics were against the Axis. They could not afford to fight a long war. They needed to knock their opponents out relatively quickly. This was explicit with the Japanese strategy; knock the US fleet out so the US sues for peace and Japan is allowed access to the resources she needed (this failed because only a portion of the fleet was at Pearl Harbour, and those ships that were sunk could be replaced). In Europe, Hitler needed either a decisive victory that destroyed the British Army and forced Britain to sue for peace, leaving Germany to rule Western Europe, or for Britain to be starved out in the Battle of the Atlantic. Neither of those strategies came to pass. The British expeditionary force escaped at Dunkirk and the RAF won the Battle of Britain so that Britain could not be invaded. The uboat war was not adequately prioritized by Hitler, who preferred to waste resources on vanity projects like battleships.
Once America entered the war, the economics were even more stacked against the Axis.
The man in the high castle (TV show, not read the book) has a backstory in which the Germans get nuclear weapons and a means to deliver it. If that were the case, and they could manufacture them quick enough, then maybe it is possible that the Allies be defeated.

不，经济形势对轴心国不利，他们打不起一场持久战。他们需要相对迅速地击倒对手。日本的策略非常明显；击垮美国舰队，这样美国就会寻求和平，日本就能获得其所需的资源（这失败了，因为只有一部分舰队在珍珠港，而且那些被击沉的船只可以被替换）。在欧洲，希特勒需要一个决定性的胜利来摧毁英国军队，迫使英国寻求和平，留下德国统治西欧，或者通过大西洋战役让英国饿死。这两种策略都没有实现。英国远征军在敦刻尔克逃跑了，英国皇家空军赢得了不列颠之战，使英国无法被入侵。希特勒并没有充分重视潜艇战争，他更喜欢把资源浪费在像战舰这样的面子工程上。
一旦美国参战，经济形势对轴心国来说更是不利。
《高堡奇人》（看的电视剧，没有看过小说）的背景故事中，德国获得了核武器和一种投放手段。如果是这样的话，他们可以足够快地制造它们，那么盟军可能会被击败。

Jo Hamm
From what I’ve read… Great answers, everyone…However, there are a few simple things that I’d like to point out.
Germany’s first obxtive was to take over Europe, not the United States - and only Eastern Europe, not the Soviet unx. The US tried to stay nuetral until Japan bombed Pearl Harbor… which to this day really doesn’t make sense to provoke a neutral country over 20 times your size that has a mongoloid military that’s just itching for a reason to jump into the war… anyway, I’ll get to Japan later - even if Germany developed the first nuclear bomb, they wouldn’t have dropped it on the United States. They had enough to worry about in Europe, and most likely would have dropped the bomb on France first, then threatened the rest of Europe to surrender, then told the U.S. to get the hell out of Europe or they’re next.

根据我所读到的，大家的回答都很好……然而，我想指出一些简单的事情。
德国的第一个目标是接管欧洲，而不是美国——而且只接管东欧，不接管苏联。美国曾试图保持中立，直到日本轰炸珍珠港…激怒一个面积是你20多倍、象蒙古人的军队的中立国，真的是没有意义的……不管怎样，我稍后会讲到日本——即使德国开发了第一颗核弹，他们也不会把它扔在美国。他们对欧洲的担忧已经够多了，很可能会先在法国投下炸弹，然后威胁欧洲其他国家投降，然后告诉美国滚出欧洲，否则他们就是下一个。
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Regardless… logistically, Germany could not have taken over much, despite Hitler’s ambitions… as in the first answer, they simply did not have enough soldiers… even at the beginning of the war. And towards the end of the war, Hitler lowered the draft age to 16, and was desperate for any soldier; and that being the case, even if they had the bomb, they’d only be able to destroy and threaten other countries… without the means of occupying and assimilating them into German control. For a perspective on size and population - Germany is smaller than the state of Montana. The population is 3–4 times smaller than the United States - Throw that on top of the need for European occupation of supposed conquered countries, and Germany spreads its military so thin that their presence is simply laughable. Not only presence, but where do you think they are going to get their supplies from? Guns, ammo, etc… you think Americans are going to just simply oblige the Germans and hand it over?! Once again, referring to answer 1, Germany had no means of delivering supplies via ship nor plane… at least not in the amount that is needed to control a country that is almost 30 times their size.

不管怎样，从后勤上讲，德国不可能接管太多，尽管希特勒野心勃勃，正如第一个答案，他们甚至在战争开始时就没有足够的士兵。战争快结束时，希特勒将征兵年龄降至16岁，他迫切需要任何士兵;在这种情况下，即使他们有炸弹，他们也只能摧毁和威胁其他国家，而不能占领和同化他们。从面积和人口的角度来看，德国比蒙大拿州还小。人口比美国少3-4倍——再加上欧洲占领所谓的被征服国家的需要，德国的军事分布如此之薄，以至于他们的存在简直是可笑的。不仅是存在，而且你认为他们将从哪里获得补给？从哪里得到枪支、弹药等等……你认为美国人会对德国人施恩，交出武器吗?再次提到第一个答案，德国没有办法通过船只或飞机运送物资，至少没有必要控制一个几乎是他们30倍大的国家。

Which brings me to my next point… why is everyone simply folding cause the Germans “won the war”? German ground soldiers trying to land on US soil would be met with such fierce resistance that they wouldn’t make it much further than the shore, let alone slipping into high office positions and running the country along with it’s military. It would only be a matter of time before Germany was invaded by the rest of the world, their nuclear facilities hijacked, putting an end to their dominance. The advantage of the US was that they were not looking for conquer - the bomb was a means to an end. Besides, the US is on the other hemisphere of the globe… if the US really wanted to take over the world, they could have easily had it done before 1960 by bombing and threatening... but checks and balances are good! The biggest problem Germany faced in their wake of war was that they were surrounded by other countries on every border... the US was not. Germany wanting to take over the world... was simply F*%KED from the beginning.

这引出了我的下一个观点：为什么大家都会简单地屈服——就因为德国“赢得了战争”？德国地面士兵试图在美国领土上着陆，会遭到非常猛烈的抵抗，以至于他们连海岸都走不了多远，更不用说悄悄进入高层所在的地方然后实现军事管理。德国迟早会被世界其他国家入侵，他们的核设施被劫持，结束他们的统治地位。美国的优势在于，他们并不寻求征服——原子弹只是达到目的的一种手段。此外，美国在地球的另一个半球，如果美国真的想接管世界，他们可以在1960年之前通过轰炸和威胁轻易地做到这一点……但制衡是好的！德国在战后面临的最大问题是他们在每一条边界上都被其他国家包围。美国则不会，德国想要征服世界……从一开始就注定失败。
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Ioan M??iu
Hardly possible - but cannot be totally ruled out.
Several factors need to occurs, none in particular really impossible, but the chain in itself being highly implausible:
- Keeping alliance/non-aggresion with Soviet unx until a big blow could be delivered in West. Both for military reasons but also for economic ones ( getting lot of raw materials and so on ). In TV is suggested that Stalin was killed by own generals/party members so maybe this possibility was somehow acknowledged.
-Japan being more oriented towards British Empire targets and not to US ... at least few years. Hardly possible but not totally implausible especially if next condition would be fulfilled too...

几乎不可能——但不能完全排除。
需要发生几个因素，没有特别不可能的，但这一连串的情况本身就非常不可信：
与苏联保持联盟或不侵犯状态，直到能在西方发起重大打击。这既是出于军事原因，也是出于经济原因（比如获取大量原材料等）。电视剧中暗示斯大林是被自己的将军或党员杀害的，所以也许这种可能性在某种程度上得到了承认
日本更倾向于选大英帝国作为目标，而不会选择美国作为目标……至少几年。几乎不可能，但也不是完全不可能，尤其是如果下一个条件也能满足的话……

Kevin Mccune
I wanted to ask someone if they were going to make a third season of that series. Never read the book , do enjoy good science fiction.If alternate timelines and dimensions are possible , I suppose it could be possible , after I figured out what was going on I really enjoyed it. The thing is upon reflection , there were a lot of things hanging ( Such as how Smith became a Nazi and so forth ).

我想问问别人他们会不会拍第三季。我从未读过这本书，但我确实喜欢好的科幻作品。如果交替的时间线和维度是可能的，我想这是可能的，在我弄清楚发生了什么之后，我真的很喜欢它。问题是，在反思之后，有很多问题悬而未决（比如史密斯是如何成为纳粹的等等）。
回到地球的部分，除非纳粹发展了原子弹，否则他们赢得战争的可能性很小。似乎没有提到意大利人，我可以想象纳粹和日本人之间的摩擦，当然还有随之而来的全球种族灭绝。

Daniel Dejsus Pertz
No.
The premise of the tv show and books is totally impossible if Germany had won the WW2 the most like scenario is that instead of the Soviet unx becoming a global power the German would become the Great superpower in Eurasia
A huge number of atrocities would take place in eastern Europe with racism policies, a series of crime against humanity would unfold for the following decade in Europe. the UK elites and British Crown would fleed to Canada and rule their overseas territories over there but losing them anyway as happened in our timeline.
But in the end, the most likely scenario that would unfold is a cold war between the US and Nazi Germany, with Japan taking the role that China took in our timeline scenario, the US would defeat Japan but the Nazi would hold Japon from be taken by the US and keep the Japanese as Alie of the Riech, some form of Korea scenario maybe.

不会。
电视剧和书籍的前提是完全不可能的，如果德国赢得了二战，最有可能的情况是苏联不会成为全球大国，而德国会成为欧亚大陆上的超级大国。
在种族主义政策下，大量的暴行将在东欧发生，在接下来的十年里，一系列危害人类的罪行将在欧洲展开。英国精英和英国王室将逃到加拿大，统治他们在那里的海外领土，但无论如何都会失去他们，就像我们的时间线所发生的那样。
但最终，最有可能出现的情况是美国和纳粹德国之间的冷战，日本扮演了中国在我们的时间线场景中扮演的角色，美国将打败日本，但纳粹将阻止日本被美国占领，让日本成为亚洲的盟友，可能是某种形式的朝鲜场景。
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In that scenario, Germany would win Europe and have some type of European fascist unx, the U.S by the coming decades would take the effort to make fascist ideology the enemy number ONE, would take the task to stop supporting the nationalist/fascist regimen in the bananas republics and the rest of Latin America, basically almost the same thing that happened in our timeline with the Soviet unx but just fully sponsoring democracy, because in our timeline the U.S. supported authoritarian regimens that were just against Com...ism and socialism despite if they were real democracies like in Chile where it was a pure fascist bloodthirsty regimen that was pro-private enterprise system but whole authoritarian anti-democratic like their main enemy the com...st countries the only difference was the economy system.

在那种情景下，德国会赢得欧洲，并建立某种类型的欧洲法西斯联盟，美国在接下来的几十年里会努力使法西斯意识形态成为头号敌人，会承担起阻止支持民族主义/法西斯政权的任务，在香蕉共和国和拉丁美洲的其他国家也是如此，基本上和我们在苏联时期发生的事情是一样的，只是完全支持民主，因为在我们的时间线中，美国支持那些仅仅反对共产主义和社会主义的威权政权，尽管它们是真正的民主国家，比如在智利，那里是一个纯粹的法西斯嗜血政权，支持私营企业制度，但整体上是威权的、反民主的，就像他们的主要敌人共产主义国家一样，唯一的区别是经济系统。