报告称，人工智能“末日”可能会夺走英国近800万个工作岗位
AI ‘apocalypse’ could take away almost 8m jobs in UK, says report
译文简介
“我们需要一场新的阶级革命。这一次是非工人阶级。”——《卫报》报道。
正文翻译
AI ‘apocalypse’ could take away almost 8m jobs in UK, says report
-Women, younger workers and lower paid are at most risk from artificial intelligence, says IPPR thinktank
报告称，人工智能“末日”可能会夺走英国近800万个工作岗位
——智库公共政策研究所表示，女性、年轻员工和低薪员工受到人工智能的威胁最大
-Women, younger workers and lower paid are at most risk from artificial intelligence, says IPPR thinktank
报告称，人工智能“末日”可能会夺走英国近800万个工作岗位
——智库公共政策研究所表示，女性、年轻员工和低薪员工受到人工智能的威胁最大
(Customer support workers are among those at risk in the first wave of AI adoption. The second wave will have a much bigger impact.)
（在第一波人工智能应用浪潮中，客户支持人员是面临风险的人群之一。第二波浪潮将产生更大的影响。）
新闻：
Almost 8 million UK jobs could be lost to artificial intelligence in a “jobs apocalypse”, according to a report warning that women, younger workers and those on lower wages are at most risk from automation.
一份报告警告称，在一场“就业末日”中，英国可能会有近800万个工作岗位被人工智能取代，女性、年轻工人和工资较低的人受自动化影响的风险最大。
一份报告警告称，在一场“就业末日”中，英国可能会有近800万个工作岗位被人工智能取代，女性、年轻工人和工资较低的人受自动化影响的风险最大。
The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) said that entry level, part-time and administrative jobs were most exposed to being replaced by AI under a “worst-case scenario” for the rollout of new technologies in the next three to five years.
公共政策研究所表示，在未来3到5年新技术推出的“最坏情况”下，入门级、兼职和行政工作最容易被人工智能取代。
公共政策研究所表示，在未来3到5年新技术推出的“最坏情况”下，入门级、兼职和行政工作最容易被人工智能取代。
The thinktank warned that the UK was facing a “sliding doors” moment as growing numbers of companies adopt generative AI technologies – which can read and create text, data and software code – to automate everyday workplace tasks.
该智库警告称，随着越来越多的公司采用生成式人工智能技术（可以阅读和创建文本、数据和软件代码）将日常工作任务自动化，英国正面临“自动门”时刻。
该智库警告称，随着越来越多的公司采用生成式人工智能技术（可以阅读和创建文本、数据和软件代码）将日常工作任务自动化，英国正面临“自动门”时刻。
The report said this first wave of AI adoption was already putting jobs at risk as growing numbers of companies introduce the technology. However, a second wave could lead to the automation of more jobs amid rapid advances in AI.
该报告称，随着越来越多的公司引入人工智能技术，这第一波人工智能应用已经使就业面临风险。然而，随着人工智能的快速发展，第二波浪潮可能会导致更多工作岗位的自动化。
该报告称，随着越来越多的公司引入人工智能技术，这第一波人工智能应用已经使就业面临风险。然而，随着人工智能的快速发展，第二波浪潮可能会导致更多工作岗位的自动化。
Analysing 22,000 tasks in the economy covering every type of job, the IPPR said 11% of tasks currently done by workers were at risk. This could, though, increase to 59% of tasks in the second wave as technologies develop to handle increasingly complex processes.
公共政策研究所分析了经济中涵盖各种工作类型的22000项任务，称目前由工人完成的任务中有11%处于危险之中。然而，随着技术的发展，能够处理越来越复杂的过程，在第二波浪潮中，这一比例可能会增加到59%。
公共政策研究所分析了经济中涵盖各种工作类型的22000项任务，称目前由工人完成的任务中有11%处于危险之中。然而，随着技术的发展，能够处理越来越复杂的过程，在第二波浪潮中，这一比例可能会增加到59%。
It said routine cognitive tasks – including database management, scheduling and stocktaking – were already at risk, with potential to displace entry level and part-time jobs in secretarial work, administration and customer services.
报告称，日常的认知任务——包括数据库管理、日程安排和盘点——已经处于危险之中，有可能取代初级和兼职的秘书、行政和客户服务工作。
报告称，日常的认知任务——包括数据库管理、日程安排和盘点——已经处于危险之中，有可能取代初级和兼职的秘书、行政和客户服务工作。
However, the second wave of AI adoption could impact non-routine tasks involving the creation of databases, copywriting and graphic design, which would affect increasingly higher earning jobs.
然而，人工智能的第二波应用浪潮可能会影响非常规任务，包括创建数据库、文案和平面设计，这将影响越来越高收入的工作。
然而，人工智能的第二波应用浪潮可能会影响非常规任务，包括创建数据库、文案和平面设计，这将影响越来越高收入的工作。
Women would be significantly more affected, as “they are more likely to work in the most exposed occupations, such as secretarial and administrative occupations”, the IPPR said.
公共政策研究所表示，女性受到的影响更大，因为“她们更有可能从事高风险职业，比如秘书和行政职业”。
公共政策研究所表示，女性受到的影响更大，因为“她们更有可能从事高风险职业，比如秘书和行政职业”。
In the worst-case scenario for the second wave of AI, 7.9m jobs could be displaced, the report said, with any gains for the economy from productivity improvements cancelled out with zero growth in GDP within three to five years.
报告称，在第二波人工智能浪潮的最坏情况下，790万个工作岗位可能会被取代，生产率提高给经济带来的任何收益都将被3至5年内GDP的零增长所抵消。
报告称，在第二波人工智能浪潮的最坏情况下，790万个工作岗位可能会被取代，生产率提高给经济带来的任何收益都将被3至5年内GDP的零增长所抵消。
In a best-case scenario for full augmentation of the workforce with generative AI, no jobs would be lost, while the size of the economy could be increased by 4%, or about £92bn a year.
在最好的情况下，通过生成式人工智能充分增加劳动力，不会有工作岗位流失，而经济规模可能增加4%，即每年增加约920亿英镑。
在最好的情况下，通过生成式人工智能充分增加劳动力，不会有工作岗位流失，而经济规模可能增加4%，即每年增加约920亿英镑。
Sounding the alarm over the impact on workers, the left-of-centre thinktank said government action could prevent a “jobs apocalypse”, and help to harness the power of AI to boost economic growth and raise living standards.
这家立场中间偏左的智库就人工智能对工人的影响敲响了警钟，称政府的行动可以防止“就业末日”，并有助于利用人工智能的力量促进经济增长和提高生活水平。
这家立场中间偏左的智库就人工智能对工人的影响敲响了警钟，称政府的行动可以防止“就业末日”，并有助于利用人工智能的力量促进经济增长和提高生活水平。
Carsten Jung, senior economist at IPPR, said: “Already existing generative AI could lead to big labour market disruption or it could hugely boost economic growth. Either way, it is set to be a gamechanger for millions of us.
公共政策研究所高级经济学家卡斯滕·荣格表示：“已经存在的可生成人工智能可能会导致劳动力市场出现重大混乱，也可能极大地推动经济增长。不管怎样，它都将改变我们数百万人的游戏规则。
公共政策研究所高级经济学家卡斯滕·荣格表示：“已经存在的可生成人工智能可能会导致劳动力市场出现重大混乱，也可能极大地推动经济增长。不管怎样，它都将改变我们数百万人的游戏规则。
“But technology isn’t destiny and a jobs apocalypse is not inevitable – government, employers and unxs have the opportunity to make crucial design decisions now that ensure we manage this new technology well. If they don’t act soon, it may be too late.”
“但技术不是命运，就业末日也不是不可避免的——政府、雇主和工会现在有机会做出关键的设计决策，确保我们能很好地管理这项新技术。但如果他们现在不尽快采取行动，可能就会悔之晚矣。”
“但技术不是命运，就业末日也不是不可避免的——政府、雇主和工会现在有机会做出关键的设计决策，确保我们能很好地管理这项新技术。但如果他们现在不尽快采取行动，可能就会悔之晚矣。”
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Its 12% of population
AI will hit hard service based economies
（800万）占人口的12%
人工智能将严重打击以服务业为基础的经济体
A large chunk of the population are financially dependant on people who are vulnerable to AI job loss. e.g. family of 4 with working husband, stay-at-home wife and 2 kids. What % of the workforce is the 8m?
Not to mention the secondary effects from having more people unemployed. Someone who lost their high paying job to AI is no longer able to hire someone to clean the windows, cut the grass, getting car serviced so often, go to the pub etc.
No doubt that 8m job losses is completely catastrophic for UK economy
很大一部分人口在经济上依赖于那些容易因人工智能而失业的人。比如，四口之家：丈夫工作，妻子全职太太，外加两个孩子。800万人口占劳动力的百分比是多少？
更不用说更多人失业带来的连带影响了。那些因为人工智能而失去高薪工作的人，再也无法雇人来擦窗户、割草、经常为汽车服务、去酒吧等等了。
毫无疑问，800万人失业对英国经济来说完全是灾难性的
Yeah it's basically a game over scenario.
It's so funny to me to see serious and somewhat smart people discussing how their job is "safe" LM in a crumbling economy.
是的，这基本上是一个game over的场景。
看到一些严肃而聪明的人在经济崩溃的情况下讨论他们的工作是如何“安全”的，在我看来很搞笑。
It's not catastrophic. The production remains the same, if not higher. 8 million desperate starving people is a massive army. There is no way the billionaires win that
这不是灾难性的。产出保持不变，如果不是更高的话。800万饥饿的人是一支庞大的军队。亿万富翁们不可能打得过的
8 million soldier's sure, but 8 million office based administration, call centre and secretarial workers (the sectors mentioned in the article) ? I think they'll just slix away without much of a fuss to be honest.
Coal miners and factory workers (automotive especially) put up stiff political resistance to automation in the last century but they still failed.
800万士兵肯定打不过，但800万办公室管理人员、呼叫中心和秘书工作人员（文章中提到的行业）呢？老实说，我想他们会悄悄离开，不会有什么大惊小怪的。
煤矿工人和工厂工人（其是汽车工人）在上个世纪对自动化提出了强烈的政治抵制，但他们仍然失败了。
In coal mining, which coincidentally I do understand, there hasn't been much automation. A remote scoop is typically controlled by a human operator, for example. The technology has empowered the same number of workers to be many times more productive.
I can imagine how machine learning could automate most coal mining jobs today. I don't mean one day when some breakthrough is discovered. You could do a lot today, and I'm watching the early stages of that unfolding right now. The miners, geologists, and engineers are all suspiciously looking out of the corner of their eye at a machine doing the same job that they do.
When factories were being automated, the tech industry was blooming. People have always been chased into what are termed "higher levels" of work. Now the machines are coming for the higher level jobs first. Dexterous manual labour will actually be the last to go.
Anyways I can tell you that most of the mining industry workers are going to be displaced and it's unclear where that population would find alternate work.
I'll tell you where they will go. Before WW1 there were 200 million horses. The horse powered that era. Where are they now? They died.
People think that what is now will always be. Like that the S&P 500 will grow forever because it always has. They think the Luddites were wrong so we are wrong now. Even if the technology stopped progressing today, just implementing the discoveries of the past few years will annihilate every job market.
在煤矿开采行业，很巧的是，我确实了解，并没有太多的自动化。比如，远程铲斗通常由操作员控制。这项技术使同样数量的工人的生产率提高了许多倍。
我可以想象机器学习将如何使今天的大多数煤矿工作自动化。我不是指某一天某项突破性的发现。你今天就可以做很多事情，我现在正在观察它推广的早期阶段。矿工、地质学家和工程师都在怀疑地看着一台做着和他们一样工作的机器。
当工厂实现自动化时，科技行业正在蓬勃发展。人们总是被追逐进所谓的“更高层次”的工作。现在，机器第一次开始从事更高层次的工作了。灵巧的体力劳动将是最后被淘汰的。
不管怎样，我可以告诉你，大多数采矿业工人将被取代，目前还不清楚这些人将在哪里找到替代工作。
我会告诉你他们会去哪里。一战之前有两亿匹马。马是那个时代的动力。它们现在在哪里？它们死了。
人们认为现在是什么就会永远是什么。标准普尔500指数将永远上涨，因为它一直都是这样。他们认为卢德派错了，所以我们现在也错了。即使技术今天停止进步，仅仅推广过去几年的技术成就就会摧毁所有的就业市场。
I think there are more than 8m people in the UK who would prefer to do something other than their monotonous job. Automate everything, give us enough for our needs and sosciety will prosper like we couldn't have imagined.
我想，英国有超过800万人希望做点别的事情，而不是单调重复的工作。自动化一切，给我们足够的需求，社会将以我们无法想象的方式繁荣。
For those with a mortgage, bills & children, can you please suggest what jobs these people can do if they suddenly find themselves unemployed after AI makes their jobs obsolete? We can’t all be tech gurus and STEM graduates.
I think people on this sub and similar tech-oriented subs are underestimating how devastating AI is going to be to average normal families who will likely find themselves homeless. What about somebody working in accounts payable, data entry or recruitment? Suddenly their job is gone but they have no skills or experience to get another. All these over optimistic people saying ‘the government will introduce UBI’ are naive in my eyes. The government does not have the average workers best interests at heart and will allow the situation get out of control before they act, by which time it will all be too late. Millions will be unable to pay their mortgage and will burn through whatever savings they have just surviving. It won’t be long before there are millions of rough sleepers, entire families even, who have lost everything.
对于那些有抵押贷款、账单和孩子的人，你能建议一下，如果这些人在人工智能取代他们的工作后突然发现自己失业了，他们可以做什么工作吗？我们不可能都是科技大师和理工科毕业生。
我认为这个贴子和类似的科技贴子上的人低估了人工智能对普通家庭的破坏性，他们可能会发现自己无家可归。从事应付帐款、数据录入或招聘工作的人会怎样？突然间，他们失去了工作，但他们没有技能或经验来获得另一份工作。在我看来，所有那些过于乐观的人说“政府将引入全民基本收入”都是天真的。政府并不把普通工人的最大利益放在心上，在他们采取行动之前，会让局势失去控制，到那时一切都太晚了。数百万人将无法支付抵押贷款，并将耗尽他们仅存的存款。用不了多久，就会有数百万露宿街头的人，甚至是整个家庭，他们失去了一切。
Won't happen. In countries like the UK voting is a thing. When unemployment is nearing 10% everbody will be affected, since they know people who are affected directly. The first politician who goes out and says "I'll tax AI labor and distribute its wealth" will win and implement some support system that helps. This will become more relevant each election cycle and will create better and better systems.
不会发生的。在像英国这样的国家，选票很重要。当失业率接近10%时，每个人都会受到影响，因为他们知道谁直接受到影响。第一个站出来说“我将对人工智能劳动征税并分配其财富”的政客将胜选，并实施一些有帮助的支持体系。这将在每个选举周期中变得更加重要，并将创造出越来越好的体系。
Calling it an apocalypse is a bit overdramatic... especially considering we are facing actual apocalypse scenarios right now (climate change and the threat of nuclear war).
说它是世界末日有点夸张了……特别是考虑到我们现在正面临着真实的世界末日情景（气候变化和核战争的威胁）。
Apocalyptic means total destruction of something. I agree it wont be the total destruction of UK society, but 25% unemployment rate in the current system would be an absolute disaster.
Also, I believe that Hitler rose to power during 30% unemployment in Germany. Those kinds of conditions can bring out the worst in society.
Apocalyptic的意思是某物的彻底毁灭。我赞同这不会完全摧毁英国社会，但是25%的失业率在目前的制度下将是一场绝对的灾难。
此外，我相信希特勒是在德国失业率达到30%的情况下上台的。这种情况会带来社会中最坏的情况。
I think labeling the destruction of the entire working class as apocalyptic makes sense. Globally that’s billions of people dying. Well before climate change would effect them. And nuclear war might actually have a chance at preventing ai apocalypse, considering it has the capability of frying almost all electronic devices.
我认为给整个工人阶级的毁灭贴上世界末日的标签是有道理的。全球范围内有数十亿人死亡。远在气候变化影响它们之前。考虑能有能力摧毁几乎所有的电子设备，核战争实际上可能有机会阻止人工智能的末日。
A.i. isn't murdering anyone...? What are you talking about?
人工智能并没有杀人……？你在说什么？
When did I say ai was murdering anyone? Ai is a tool that will replace billions of people’s jobs, leaving them unemployed and without money. Given the political and economic systems of the world right now, those unemployed people would starve and die (no amount of social welfare could cover all of them), hence it being an apocalyptic event.
我什么时候说过人工智能在杀人？人工智能是一种工具，它将取代数十亿人的工作，使他们失业，身无分文。鉴于当今世界的政治和经济制度，那些失业的人会饿死（再多的社会福利也无法覆盖所有人），因此这是一个世界末日的事件。
Don't just take 8m jobs. Take all of them. It's time we abandon the view we need jobs.
不要只夺走800万个工作岗位。全部拿走。是时候放弃我们需要工作的观点了。
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I hope I live to see the day that we move on from work as a concept.
我希望我能活着看到我们从工作中解放出来的那一天。
Work is not the problem. I'd argue without work a lot of people would have trouble finding meaning in their lives. The problem is the amount of work we have to do to make a living, and how little time we have left to just live our lives. I'd agree that mundane, soul sucking jobs should not be what we strive for though, but something where people can actually make a difference in some way, or find real fulfillment.
工作不是问题。我认为，如果没有工作，很多人就很难找到生命的意义。问题在于我们为了谋生必须做多少工作，而留给自己生活的时间又少得可怜。我赞同，我们不应该去追求那些平凡的、吸人灵魂的工作，而应该去追求那些人们可以在某种程度上有所作为，或者找到真正成就感的工作。
Well, if a large amount of people aren't really needed in the job market then we shouldn't force people who don't want to work a soul sucking job to work. Not eveyone derives meaning from their "normal" job, some people would rather work on stuff they are passionate about instead, think hobbies, side projects, volunteering, etc
好吧，如果就业市场真的不需要大量的人，那么我们就不应该强迫那些不想做吸人灵魂工作的人去工作。不是每个人都能从他们的“正常”工作中获得意义，有些人宁愿从事他们热爱的事情——想想你的爱好、业余项目、志愿服务等等
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Who said we should force people to work? Or that work is the only way people find meaning? Sometimes I swear people don't even read comments, you're literally just rephrasing what I said
谁说我们应该强迫人们工作？或者工作是人们找到意义的唯一途径？有时候我发誓人们根本不看评论，你只是在改写我说过的话
People who were replaced by machines found jobs in previous centuries. In the worst case, everyone will be given robots/AI by the governments for free. And then people will form unxs renting their robots to the highest bidder.
在过去的几个世纪里，被机器取代的人们找到了工作。在最坏的情况下，政府将免费给每个人提供机器人/人工智能。然后人们会组成帮会，把他们的机器人租给出价最高的人。
It’ll crest new ones just like automation has. We always make bigger or more advanced things with the tech otherwise it would be like having billions of dollars but not deploying it to use
它会像自动化一样掀起新的浪潮。我们总是用技术制造更大或更先进的东西，否则就像拥有数十亿美元但没有投入使用一样
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AI will get politicized in the next few years
Elections are won on small margins, and impacted workers will vote for candidates that speak to their anger and to their needs
The harsh reality is many people will become unemployable
These blocks of voters will decide elections for the foreseeable future
人工智能将在未来几年被政治化
选举以微弱优势获胜，受影响的工人将投票给能表达他们的愤怒和需求的候选人
残酷的现实是，许多人将失业
在可预见的未来，这些选民群体将决定选举结果
We need a new class revolution. This time it’s the non-working class.
我们需要一场新的阶级革命。这一次是非工人阶级。