智库称，移民对经济的推动作用被高估了
Migrants’ boost to economy overestimated, claims think tank
译文简介
“这是非常痛苦的错误。”——《每日电讯》报道。
正文翻译
Migrants’ boost to economy overestimated, claims think tank
-Office for Budget Responsibility exaggerating tax contribution by £6 billion, says Centre for Migration Control
智库称，移民对经济的推动作用被高估了
——移民控制中心称，预算责任办公室夸大了税收贡献60亿英镑
-Office for Budget Responsibility exaggerating tax contribution by £6 billion, says Centre for Migration Control
智库称，移民对经济的推动作用被高估了
——移民控制中心称，预算责任办公室夸大了税收贡献60亿英镑
(Open-door project has delivered declining wages and living standards, according to Jacob Rees-Mogg.)
（雅各布·里斯-莫格表示，开放式项目带来了工资和生活水平的下降。）
新闻：
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has been accused of exaggerating the tax contribution of future migrants to the tune of £6 billion.
预算责任办公室被指责夸大了未来移民的税收贡献——高达60亿英镑。
预算责任办公室被指责夸大了未来移民的税收贡献——高达60亿英镑。
The Centre for Migration Control think tank claimed that the watchdog had “vastly overstated” the tax take by overestimating how much skilled migrants earn.
智库移民控制中心声称，监管机构高估了技术移民的收入，“大大夸大了”税收。
智库移民控制中心声称，监管机构高估了技术移民的收入，“大大夸大了”税收。
Set up by George Osborne in 2010, the OBR provides independent forecasts to accompany the Government’s major fiscal events.
预算责任办公室于2010年由乔治·奥斯本设立，为政府重大财政事件提供独立预测。
预算责任办公室于2010年由乔治·奥斯本设立，为政府重大财政事件提供独立预测。
It has assumed a central role in British politics because its projections influence how much the Treasury has at its disposal for extra spending or tax cuts.
它在英国政治中扮演着核心角色，因为它的预测影响着财政部在额外支出或减税方面的可支配资金。
它在英国政治中扮演着核心角色，因为它的预测影响着财政部在额外支出或减税方面的可支配资金。
Recently, a number of Conservative MPs have accused it of giving excess weight to the economic benefit of liberal immigration policies, with net migration hitting a record of 745,000 in 2022.
最近，一些保守党议员指责政府过度重视自由移民政策的经济利益，2022年，净移民人数达到创纪录的74.5万人。
最近，一些保守党议员指责政府过度重视自由移民政策的经济利益，2022年，净移民人数达到创纪录的74.5万人。
In its forecast produced for the Budget at the start of this month, the OBR said that it has assumed that “new migrants have the same employment, consumption, and residential patterns as residents, and as such pay similar levels of wider taxation”.
预算责任办公室在本月初为预算案做出的预测中表示，它假设“新移民与当地居民拥有相同的就业、消费和居住模式，因此支付相似水平的更广泛的税收”。
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预算责任办公室在本月初为预算案做出的预测中表示，它假设“新移民与当地居民拥有相同的就业、消费和居住模式，因此支付相似水平的更广泛的税收”。
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However, the CMC disputes this assumption. Using data from the Office for National Statistics, the think tank said that in 2023 the average occupation salary for a resident skilled worker was £37,614, whereas the average salary for a skilled migrant worker was £31,431.
然而，移民控制中心对这一假设提出了质疑。根据英国国家统计局的数据，该智库表示，到2023年，常驻技术工人的平均职业工资为37614英镑，而技术移民工人的平均工资为31431英镑。
然而，移民控制中心对这一假设提出了质疑。根据英国国家统计局的数据，该智库表示，到2023年，常驻技术工人的平均职业工资为37614英镑，而技术移民工人的平均工资为31431英镑。
It said this reflected the fact that a higher proportion of skilled worker migrants are in lower paid professions such as “care worker and home care worker” roles.
报告称，这反映出一个事实，即较高比例的技术工人移民从事“护工和家庭护工”等低薪职业。
报告称，这反映出一个事实，即较高比例的技术工人移民从事“护工和家庭护工”等低薪职业。
The CMC said that the difference between the average salaries of resident and skilled migrant workers meant that the OBR had overstated the average amount of income tax and national insurance paid by migrants by £1,855.
移民控制中心表示，居民和技术移民工人的平均工资之间的差距意味着，预算责任办公室将移民缴纳的所得税和国民保险的平均金额夸大了1855英镑。
移民控制中心表示，居民和技术移民工人的平均工资之间的差距意味着，预算责任办公室将移民缴纳的所得税和国民保险的平均金额夸大了1855英镑。
Projecting forward their analysis over the OBR’s forecast to 2028-29, the CMC estimated that the watchdog had overstated salaries for migrants on skilled work visas by £20.5 billion and their tax contribution by £6 billion.
根据预算责任办公室对2028-2029年的预测，移民控制中心估计该机构高估了持技术工作签证的移民的工资205亿英镑，以及他们的税收贡献60亿英镑。
根据预算责任办公室对2028-2029年的预测，移民控制中心估计该机构高估了持技术工作签证的移民的工资205亿英镑，以及他们的税收贡献60亿英镑。
Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, the former business secretary, said: “The OBR is an unelected quango with far too much control over government policy.
前商务大臣雅各布·里斯-莫格爵士表示：“预算责任办公室是一个未经选举产生的半官方机构，对政府政策拥有太多控制权。
前商务大臣雅各布·里斯-莫格爵士表示：“预算责任办公室是一个未经选举产生的半官方机构，对政府政策拥有太多控制权。
“It believes that mass migration has been an untrammelled boon for the economy.
“它认为，大规模移民对经济来说是一个不受限制的福音。
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“它认为，大规模移民对经济来说是一个不受限制的福音。
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“Yet if you look at the recent decline in GDP per capita it shows that the open-door project has failed to deliver anything but declining wages and living standards.”
“然而，如果你看看最近人均GDP的下降，就会发现，这个门户开放的项目除了工资和生活水平下降外，没有带来任何好处。”
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“然而，如果你看看最近人均GDP的下降，就会发现，这个门户开放的项目除了工资和生活水平下降外，没有带来任何好处。”
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He added: “Now is the time that the pseudo forecasts of the OBR were treated with the circumspection they deserve, rather than treating them as Holy Writ.”
他补充说：“现在是时候以应有的谨慎态度对待预算责任办公室的虚假预测了，而不是把它们当作圣经。”
他补充说：“现在是时候以应有的谨慎态度对待预算责任办公室的虚假预测了，而不是把它们当作圣经。”
‘Myth that economy needs mass immigration’
Marco Longhi, the Tory MP for Dudley North, said: “The fact that the OBR continues to over-inflate the value of open borders, believing that they’re a huge benefit to the economy, is a sad indictment of its forecasting capabilities.
“‘经济需要大规模移民’的神话”
达德利·诺斯选区的保守党议员马尔科·隆吉表示：“预算责任办公室继续夸大开放边境的价值，认为这对经济有巨大好处，这是对其预测能力的可悲控诉。
Marco Longhi, the Tory MP for Dudley North, said: “The fact that the OBR continues to over-inflate the value of open borders, believing that they’re a huge benefit to the economy, is a sad indictment of its forecasting capabilities.
“‘经济需要大规模移民’的神话”
达德利·诺斯选区的保守党议员马尔科·隆吉表示：“预算责任办公室继续夸大开放边境的价值，认为这对经济有巨大好处，这是对其预测能力的可悲控诉。
“I hope that today’s findings go some way to dispelling the myth that the British economy cannot cope without net migration of hundreds of thousands each year.”
“我希望今天的调查结果能在某种程度上打破‘英国经济没有每年数十万净移民就无法维持’的神话。”
“我希望今天的调查结果能在某种程度上打破‘英国经济没有每年数十万净移民就无法维持’的神话。”
The OBR declined to comment on the CMC’s analysis.
预算责任办公室拒绝就移民控制中心的分析置评。
预算责任办公室拒绝就移民控制中心的分析置评。
Writing for The Telegraph last month, David Miles, an executive member of the OBR, said that getting more people back to work was a surer way of boosting GDP.
预算责任办公室的执行成员大卫·迈尔斯上个月为《每日电讯报》撰文称，让更多的人重返工作岗位是提高GDP的可靠方法。
预算责任办公室的执行成员大卫·迈尔斯上个月为《每日电讯报》撰文称，让更多的人重返工作岗位是提高GDP的可靠方法。
“It is much less clear that persistently high levels of net immigration to boost the labour force can generate sustained fiscal improvements,” he said.
他表示：“持续高水平的净移民以增加劳动力，能否带来持续的财政改善，这一点远没有那么清楚。”
他表示：“持续高水平的净移民以增加劳动力，能否带来持续的财政改善，这一点远没有那么清楚。”
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So people will shit on this because of the source being biased, but looking at what they actually say it's perfectly reasonable.
OBR made the assumption that migrant workers earn the same as resident workers when it's demonstrably untrue, the data shows us that typically they earn c20% less as they take low paying jobs.
Changing the forecast to reflect this is what results in the £6bn overestimate.
所以人们会因为消息来源有偏见而对其嗤之以鼻，但看看他们实际上说的话，这是完全合理的。
预算责任办公室假设外来务工人员的收入与本地务工人员相同，但这显然是不真实情况，数据告诉我们，由于他们从事的是低收入工作，他们的收入通常比本地务工人员低20%。
改变预测以反映这一点，导致了60亿英镑的高估。
If only there was an easy way to make sure most legal immigrants were earning enough to contribute significantly? Like setting the minimum salary for a work visa at, say, £50k. That would drop the number of legal migrants, stop wages at the lower end being suppressed by the limitless supply of people from elsewhere willing to work for less, while still allowing us access to the top talent we need.
如果有一种简单的方法来确保大多数合法移民的收入足以做出重大贡献，那该有多好？比如将工作签证的最低工资定为5万英镑。这将减少合法移民的数量，使低端工人的工资不再受到其他地方愿意以更低工资工作的人的无限供应的压制，同时仍能让我们获得所需的顶尖人才。
Good luck filling up hospitality and agriculture if that’s your salary cap. Or nurses or elder care.
如果你的工资上限是酒店业和农业，或者护士或者老人看护，那么祝你好运。
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You can’t have crops picked by hand in the fields and pay people enough to live in a modern economy. Farmers want to continually import people so they will accept being paid less than what is necessary to live well in the country. Agriculture needs to be automated and crops that can’t be grown in a productive enough way to pay workers a decent wage should be grown elsewhere.
The same also applies to many hospitality and retail jobs. We are importing people to work in shops, hotels, cafes and restaurants in London who are not getting paid enough to live properly in London. We cannot fix that with more people. Jobs need to be automated and wages increased.
Migration is fine for nurses in the short term, beyond a few years, nurses should be trained in the UK, there is no excuse for not training enough people to fill the jobs. There are plenty of people who would like to be trained to do a job which is interesting and paid well above the median wage. We also need to get productivity and GDP per capita growing again so that we can significantly increase nursing salaries.
在现代经济中，你不可能在田间用手采摘庄稼的同时付给人们足够的工资来维持生活。农民想要不断引进人口，这样他们就会接受低于在这个国家生活所需的报酬。农业需要自动化，那些不能以足够高产的方式种植以支付工人体面工资的作物，应该改到其他地方去种植。
这同样适用于许多酒店和零售业的工作。我们正在引进一些人到伦敦的商店、酒店、咖啡馆和餐馆工作，他们的收入不足以在伦敦正常生活。我们不能用更多的人来解决这个问题。工作需要自动化，工资需要提高。
移民在短期内对护士来说是好的，几年之后，护士应该在英国接受培训，没有理由不培训足够的人来填补这些工作。有很多人愿意接受培训，从事一份有趣，而且薪水远高于工资中位数的工作。我们还需要让生产率和人均GDP再次增长，这样我们才能大幅提高护理人员的工资。
The UK doesn’t have as much access to the top talent as it used to because it’s a messed up country on a downward slope with an insane government and hatred for immigrants. Bringing a foreign spouse across is hard even if you’re British, let alone for foreign workers.
Meanwhile, workers are desperately needed in lower-paid areas like agriculture, healthcare and hospitality.
If you want to attract top talents, you need to make the UK an attractive place to work and do business. It’s better than many others, but we’ve coasted for a decade now on our historical attractiveness, and many are realising it’s no good being in the UK if you can’t even get a doctor’s appointment and the roads are covered in litter, and are therefore going home or to more attractive countries.
英国不像过去那样有那么多机会获得顶尖人才了，因为它是一个混乱的国家，在一个疯狂的政府和对移民的仇恨下正在走下坡路。即使你是英国人，带外籍配偶来英国也很难，更不用说外籍员工了。
与此同时，农业、医疗保健和酒店业等低收入领域迫切需要工人。
如果你想吸引顶尖人才，你需要让英国成为一个有吸引力的工作和经商之地。它比其他许多国家都好，但我们的历史吸引力已经持续了十年，许多人正在意识到，如果你连医生预约都找不到，道路上到处都是垃圾，那么在英国生活就没有什么好处，因此他们要回家或去更有吸引力的国家。
Obviously it has been overestimated, it's like the bell curve meme.
Any idiot can see that in the last 20 years mass immigration has only led to disaster.
You get some people who are educated into being counter productive and thinking against the obvious.
Then you have people who have actually looked at the numbers and recognise, only a small fraction of the highest earning immigrants are a boost to the economy in a real way.
Often the idiotic Tory logic of line go up = good is completely based on the fact that more people = more services. Good if you're a landlord or business owner but bad for almost anyone else who will want to measure gains against economic output per individual in order to measure the average standard of living in a way that means something.
很明显，它被高估了，就像钟形曲线一样。
任何白痴都能看到，在过去的20年里，大规模移民只会导致灾难。
你让一些受过教育的人变得反生产力，反对显而易见的观点。
还有一些人真正看过这些数字，并认识到，在收入最高的移民中，只有一小部分真正推动了经济增长。
通常，愚蠢的保守党“线越高 = 越好”的逻辑完全是基于这样一个事实：更多的人 = 更多的服务。如果你是房东或企业主，这是好事，但对于几乎所有其他想用收益而不是个人经济产出来衡量结果（因为他们想以某种有意义的方式衡量平均生活水平）的人来说，这是坏事。
Exactly, in cold hard financial terms you have to earn WAY above the median salary to be a net contributor to the economy.
Nearly all tax is paid by the richest 20% due to a triple whammy of the tax free allowance, tiered tax and wealth inequality.
Almost ALL migrants fall below this line. But we could change this. We could dramatically lower migration and only allow those in on say, £70k plus salaries.
没错，从冷酷的财务角度来看，你的收入必须远远高于中位数，才能成为经济的净贡献者。
由于免税津贴、分层税收和财富不平等的三重打击，几乎所有的税收都由最富有的20%的人支付。
几乎所有的移民都在这条线以下。但我们可以改变这一点。我们可以大幅降低移民人数，只允许那些年薪在7万英镑以上的人入境。
This is so painfully not true.
People who come here to work are immediate contributors to the economy, especially when they have to fork out visa fees. Our country has not had to pay for the cost of raising those children to become adults, such as healthcare and education.
Conversely, an adult born in the UK has had a large portion of their life where they have been a dependent - taxes have paid for school education, healthcare, as well as personal earnings from their parents going towards this. It takes a while to become a net contributor. With a migrant worker, another country has paid those costs and yet our country gets the majority benefits of their productivity. It's the other country that loses out in that scenario, not ours.
You could just make a blanket salary cut off and deem everyone beneath that as not useful to our society, but then we wouldn't have healthcare in this country (or frankly, any services since everyone earning under £70k are the people who actually do the work, look at what happened during the lockdowns when low paid workers were suddenly deemed essential to society to function).
这是非常痛苦的错误。
来这里工作的人直接为经济做出了贡献，尤其是在他们必须支付签证费的情况下。我们的国家不必支付将这些孩子抚养成人的费用，比如医疗保健和教育。
相反，在英国出生的成年人一生中有很大一部分时间都是被赡养的——学校教育、医疗保健的税收，以及父母的个人收入都用于此。成为净贡献者需要一段时间。对于移民工人来说，另一个国家（祖籍国）支付了这些成本，而我们的国家却从他们的生产力中获得了大部分利益。在这种情况下，损失的是另一个国家，而不是我们。
你可以全面削减工资，认为低于这一水平的人对我们的社会没用，但这样一来，我们国家就不会有医疗保健（或者坦率地说，任何服务都不会有，因为每个收入低于7万英镑的人都是真正在工作的人，看看在封锁期间发生的事情，低收入工人突然被认为对社会运转至关重要）。
It bothers me that people talk about the entirely undefined economic benefits of migration as if that’s the only thing that matters.
Who exactly is it that supposedly benefits economically? Certainly not the lower skilled workers who used to be unxised and have bargaining power but now have to compete with people who are perfectly willing to be exploited and wouldn’t know who to turn to even if they weren’t. But who cares about them because they should’ve tried harder at school, right?
This is just a ploy by big business to import a cheap and non unxised work force that can be easily exploited to earn them more money, but that is dressed up as a moral issue so anyone who opposes it can just be labelled a bigot and ignored.
人们谈论移民带来的完全不明确的经济利益，好像这是唯一重要的事情，这让我很困扰。
到底是谁在经济上受益？当然不是那些低技能工人，他们过去加入了工会，有议价能力，但现在不得不与那些完全愿意被剥削的人竞争，即使他们不愿意，也不知道该找谁。但谁在乎他们呢？因为谁叫他们上学时不努力的，对吧？
这只是大企业的一种策略，目的是进口廉价的、没有工会的劳动力，这些劳动力可以很容易地被剥削，从而赚取更多的钱，但这被伪装成一个道德问题，因此任何反对它的人都可以被贴上偏执者的标签，被无视。
Problem is we haven't had growth for years. We just bring people in which in turn increases our gdp but its a false growth really. Purchase power wise we aren't even top 20.
I feel sorry for migrants in a way (legal ones). We've used them as a sticking plaster to shore up our failing economy for years. Yet rather than be angry at politicians for not creating genuine growth...rather than asking why a brit earns e.g. 20k doing the same job a German would earn 40k for...we blame the migrants.
问题是我们已经很多年没有增长了。我们只是引进了人口，这反过来又推高了我们的GDP，但这实际上是一种虚假的增长。按购买力算，我们甚至进不了前20名。
在某种程度上，我对移民（合法移民）感到遗憾。多年来，我们一直把他们当作支撑我们不断衰退的经济的膏药。然而，与其对政客们没有创造真正的增长感到愤怒……与其问为什么一个英国人做德国人能挣4万的工作却只能挣2万……我们选择指责移民。
It's very simple.
We are densely populated country, with low notional (fake) unemployment, but a high % of economically inactive people.
We are importing insane numbers of people that have no skills, and very little cultural affinity with the UK. These people will pay little tax, but use the NHS, claim benefits, claim a pension, increase demand for government provided translation services, increase need for policing etc.
The UK has also fallen to a position where even if we could attract highly skilled workers (we can't), there are very few jobs for them to do.
这很简单。
我们是人口稠密的国家，名义（假）失业率很低，但不从事经济活动的人口比例很高。
我们正在引入大量没有技能的人，他们与英国的文化亲和力非常低。这些人缴纳很少的税，但使用国家医疗体系，领取福利，领取养老金，增加对政府提供的翻译服务的需求，增加对警察的需求等等。
英国也陷入了这样的境地：即使我们能吸引高技能工人（我们不能），他们能做的工作也很少。
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Inmigration is a huge problem to society, too many immigrants who refuse to work and claim benefits. Also immigrants will work for cheaper wages/salaries. Its why theres been a stagnant for years in terms of wages. The way house prices have risen by %. The normal uk worker should be on about £30ph these days.
移民对社会来说是一个巨大的问题，太多的移民拒绝工作并要求福利。此外，移民将为更低的工资/薪水工作。这就是为什么多年来工资一直停滞不前。房价却上涨了X%。如今，普通英国工人的工资应该在每小时30英镑左右。
This is pretty obvious - 1.4m immigrants and a stagnant economy. Never mind the cultural impact
这是显而易见的——140万移民和停滞的经济。更别提文化影响了