在经济衰退中，英国失业率上升，工资增速下降
UK unemployment rises and wages growth falls in recession
译文简介
“情况会变得更糟。”——《卫报》报道。
正文翻译
UK unemployment rises and wages growth falls in recession
-Employers cut back on hiring new staff in three months to January as slowdown bites
在经济衰退中，英国失业率上升，工资增速下降
——受经济放缓影响，在截至1月份的三个月内，雇主削减了招聘新员工的数量
-Employers cut back on hiring new staff in three months to January as slowdown bites
在经济衰退中，英国失业率上升，工资增速下降
——受经济放缓影响，在截至1月份的三个月内，雇主削减了招聘新员工的数量
(The UK unemployment rate rose unexpectedly to 3.9% in January from 3.8% in December, the ONS said.)
（英国国家统计局称，英国失业率从去年12月的3.8%出人意料地上升至今年1月的3.9%。）
新闻：
Unemployment rose and wage growth slowed in the three months to January as the UK labour market showed signs of weakness, reflecting a broader slowdown in the economy.
在截至1月份的3个月里，失业率上升，工资增长放缓，原因是英国劳动力市场出现疲软迹象，反映出整体经济放缓。
在截至1月份的3个月里，失业率上升，工资增长放缓，原因是英国劳动力市场出现疲软迹象，反映出整体经济放缓。
The unemployment rate rose unexpectedly to 3.9 in January from 3.8% in December according to the Office for National Statistics, while annual average wages growth including bonuses fell to 5.6% from 5.8% in the previous month.
英国国家统计局的数据显示，1月份失业率出人意料地从去年12月的3.8%上升至3.9%，而包括奖金在内的年平均工资增长率从上个月的5.8%降至5.6%。
英国国家统计局的数据显示，1月份失业率出人意料地从去年12月的3.8%上升至3.9%，而包括奖金在内的年平均工资增长率从上个月的5.8%降至5.6%。
City economists had expected unemployment to reman flat and pay growth to slow to a more modest 5.7%. Pay without bonuses also ticked lower, to 6.1% from 6.2% over the same three-month period.
伦敦金融城的经济学家此前预计，失业率将保持不变，薪资增幅将放缓至更为温和的5.7%。不含奖金的薪酬比例也有所下降，从同期的6.2%降至6.1%。
伦敦金融城的经济学家此前预计，失业率将保持不变，薪资增幅将放缓至更为温和的5.7%。不含奖金的薪酬比例也有所下降，从同期的6.2%降至6.1%。
Employers cut back on hiring new staff, pushing the number of advertised vacancies down on the quarter by 43,000 to 908,000, indicating that the recession during the last six months of 2023 took a slightly bigger toll on the labour market than first estimated.
雇主削减了招聘新员工的数量，使该季度的招聘广告减少了4.3万个，至90.8万个，这表明，2023年最后6个月的衰退对劳动力市场的影响略大于最初的估计。
雇主削减了招聘新员工的数量，使该季度的招聘广告减少了4.3万个，至90.8万个，这表明，2023年最后6个月的衰退对劳动力市场的影响略大于最初的估计。
The Bank of England has waited to see signs that wage growth is slowing before making a move to reduce interest rates, and is expected to view the latest figures as another reason to begin that process this year.
英国央行一直在观望薪资增长放缓的迹象，然后才采取降息行动，预计最新数据将成为今年启动降息进程的另一个理由。
英国央行一直在观望薪资增长放缓的迹象，然后才采取降息行动，预计最新数据将成为今年启动降息进程的另一个理由。
However, more recent surveys have shown UK businesses regaining confidence in the economic outlook and preparing to raise prices as employees continue to receive pay rises above the rate of headline inflation, which is now 4% – still double the Bank of England’s 2% target.
然而，最近的调查显示，英国企业对经济前景重拾信心，并准备提高价格，因为员工的工资涨幅继续高于总体通胀率，目前的通胀率为4%，仍是英格兰银行2%目标的两倍。
然而，最近的调查显示，英国企业对经济前景重拾信心，并准备提高价格，因为员工的工资涨幅继续高于总体通胀率，目前的通胀率为4%，仍是英格兰银行2%目标的两倍。
A rise in the number of people leaving the labour market, mostly due to ill-health, will also likely mean that employers struggle to find staff and wages growth falls slowly over the coming months.
离开劳动力市场的人数增加（主要是由于健康状况不佳），这也可能意味着雇主很难找到员工，未来几个月工资增长将缓慢下降。
离开劳动力市场的人数增加（主要是由于健康状况不佳），这也可能意味着雇主很难找到员工，未来几个月工资增长将缓慢下降。
Tony Wilson, the director of the Institute for Employment Studies, said: “In all, there are well over half a million more people out of work than before the pandemic began. This is being driven by more young people and older people outside the labour force, and in particular because of more people reporting long-term health conditions that stop them from working.
就业研究所所长托尼·威尔逊说：“总的来说，失业人数比疫情爆发前增加了50多万。这是由劳动力之外更多的年轻人和老年人推动的，特别是因为更多的人报告长期健康状况使他们无法工作。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
就业研究所所长托尼·威尔逊说：“总的来说，失业人数比疫情爆发前增加了50多万。这是由劳动力之外更多的年轻人和老年人推动的，特别是因为更多的人报告长期健康状况使他们无法工作。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
“In our view this is holding back the recovery as the economy is continuing to create jobs, with nearly a million unfilled vacancies reported today.”
“在我们看来，这阻碍了经济复苏，因为经济正在继续创造工作岗位，今天有近100万个职位空缺。”
“在我们看来，这阻碍了经济复苏，因为经济正在继续创造工作岗位，今天有近100万个职位空缺。”
The chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, said the figures showed his plans to increase incomes were working.
财政大臣杰里米·亨特表示，这些数据表明，他增加收入的计划正在发挥作用。
财政大臣杰里米·亨特表示，这些数据表明，他增加收入的计划正在发挥作用。
“Our plan is working. Even with inflation falling, real wages have risen for the seventh month in a row. And take home pay is set for another boost thanks to our cuts to national insurance which in total are putting more than £900 a year back into the average earner’s pocket,” he said.
他说：“我们的计划正在发挥作用。尽管通货膨胀在下降，但实际工资已经连续第七个月上涨。由于我们削减了国民保险，平均每年将有900多英镑的收入回到工薪阶层的口袋里。”
他说：“我们的计划正在发挥作用。尽管通货膨胀在下降，但实际工资已经连续第七个月上涨。由于我们削减了国民保险，平均每年将有900多英镑的收入回到工薪阶层的口袋里。”
Wilson said the rise in inactivity meant the government needed “a different approach to how we reach and engage with people who are out of work and may want to come back to work”.
威尔逊表示，失业人数的增加意味着政府需要“用一种不同的方法来接触和处理那些失业但可能想要重返工作岗位的人”。
威尔逊表示，失业人数的增加意味着政府需要“用一种不同的方法来接触和处理那些失业但可能想要重返工作岗位的人”。
He added: “In particular our employment services need to be more accessible, inclusive and supportive. Employers need to play their part too, and do more to keep people in work and to open up opportunities for those who may need more support.”
他补充说：“特别是我们的就业服务需要更加便利、包容和支持。雇主也需要发挥自己的作用，做更多的事情让人们继续工作，并为那些可能需要更多支持的人提供机会。”
他补充说：“特别是我们的就业服务需要更加便利、包容和支持。雇主也需要发挥自己的作用，做更多的事情让人们继续工作，并为那些可能需要更多支持的人提供机会。”
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Lot of people hated on Corbyn but I tell you what, the country wouldn't be the fuckin shit show it is now if he'd have won.
很多人讨厌科尔宾，但我告诉你，如果当初他胜选了，这个国家本不会像现在这样一团糟。
Nonsensical take. For starters, Corbyn blamed NATO for “provoking” Russia to invade Ukraine. His stance would have weakened Europe as a whole, leading to even worse economic outcomes, never to mention that it’s flat out dangerous. I don’t like the Tories, but the economy is down the drain everywhere in Europe right now because we’ve had growth stalling for two years due to covid, then the energy crisis because of the invasion of Ukraine.
荒谬的假设。首先，科尔宾指责北约“挑衅”俄罗斯，才使后者入侵乌克兰。他的立场将削弱整个欧洲，导致更糟糕的经济结果，更不用说这是非常危险的。我不喜欢保守党，但现在欧洲各地的经济都在走下坡路，因为我们已经因为新冠疫情而停滞了两年，然后又因为乌克兰战争而出现了能源危机。
I live in the UK. I have a professional job. I am married, thus we have two incomes.
My niece lives in Germany. She is a single mum to 2 kids and works full time as a carer in a nursing home.
She earns less then us, but has more disposable income. She pays less tax and gets more services. She doesn't need a car, public transport is safe, depednable and cheap. She doesn't have to pay extra for speech therapy for her kids, or dentists, or chemists like we do with our "free" system. Her youngest is in a class of 18 children, the older one 22. My son is in a class of 34 children.
The difference is that Germany hasn't had 15 years of rinsing public services.
SO you can make yourself feel better by saying that it's the same all over Europe....but it just sin't true.
Similar stories to my brother and his family who live in Switzerland, and my other brother in Austria.
我住在英国。我有一份专业的工作。我结婚了，所以我们有两份收入。
我侄女住在德国。她是两个孩子的单亲妈妈，在一家养老院做全职护工。
她挣得比我们少，但可支配收入更多。她付更少的税，得到更多的服务。她不需要汽车，公共交通安全、可靠、便宜。她不需要像我们的“免费”体系那样为孩子的语言治疗、牙医或药支付额外的费用。她最小的一个班有18个孩子，最大的22个。而我儿子在一个有34个孩子的班。
不同之处在于，德国没有经历15年的公共服务改革。
所以你可以安慰自己说整个欧洲都是一样的……但事实并非如此。
我哥哥和他的家人也有类似的故事，他们住在瑞士，我另一个哥哥住在奥地利。
Germany has acheived that by seriously underfunding their military. Relying on the UK and US to have to step up to defend them. They've also kicked the energy can down the road being over relient on Russian gas until relatively recently, and closing perfectly functional nuclear power plants that they now sorely need. They're opening coal plants which is shocking in 2024.
Now Russian armies are marching across Europe, the UK military in a shambolic state and the US not being the reliable ally it previously was, I wouldn't be surprised if your neices standard of living decreases over the next few years as Germany has to stop being a taker on the international stage and pour money into it's military and alternative sources of energy.
Like I get your point, Germany does some things better but they've acheived that with their own versions of fuckery which are just as dysfunctional as the tories.
德国已经通过让军事资金严重不足实现了这一目标。依靠英国和美国必须站出来保护他们。直到最近，他们还过度依赖俄罗斯的天然气，并关闭了他们现在迫切需要的功能完善的核电站。他们将在2024年开设燃煤电厂，这是令人震惊的。
现在俄罗斯军队正在向欧洲行军，英国军队处于混乱状态，美国不再像以前那样是可靠的盟友，如果你的生活水平在未来几年下降，我不会感到惊讶的，因为德国不得不停止在国际舞台上当索取者，而把钱投入到它的军事和替代能源上。
我明白你的意思，德国在某些方面做得更好，但他们是用自己的混蛋方式实现的，这种做法这和保守党一样功能失调。
Sorry but no.
Germany reignited 2 coal powered plants to get them through this winter. They did not build new ones.
Meanwhile Germany is on track to spend more on defense than the UK for the first time.
It’s not a contest, though. My point is only that the UK made its choices, and as a result we are much less able to weather turbulence.
Life for the average German is better than life for the average Brit.
不好意思，但不是这样的。
为了度过这个冬天，德国重新点燃了两座燃煤电厂。他们没有建造新的。
与此同时，德国的国防开支将首次超过英国。
不过，这不是比赛。我只是想说，英国做出了自己的选择，因此我们经受住动荡的能力大大降低。
普通德国人的生活比普通英国人的好。
Two things can be true at the same time. NATO arguably exists mostly too isolate and provoke Russia post WW2 because the US was so threatened by Com...ism. That doesn't mean Russia was correct to invade Ukraine and that Ukraine shouldn't defend itself or be supported in that endeavour.
两件事可以同时成立。可以说，北约在二战后的存在主要是为了孤立和挑衅俄罗斯，因为美国受到了共产主义的威胁。这并不意味着俄罗斯入侵乌克兰是正确的，乌克兰不应该自卫或在这一努力中得到支持。
Nations join NATO of their own accord through democracy and self determination. The reason why they may want to is because many of them have first hand experienced Russian aggression and historic imperialism. Russia’s invasion of Georgia, current threats towards Armenia, past conduct in Chechnya etc has nothing to do with NATO “provocation”, because Russia will use any excuse for its behaviour, including NATO simply existing.
各国通过民主和自决自愿加入北约。他们可能想要这样做的原因是因为他们中的许多人都亲身经历了俄罗斯的侵略和历史上的帝国主义。俄罗斯入侵格鲁吉亚、目前对亚美尼亚的威胁、过去在车臣的行为等都与北约的“挑衅”无关，因为俄罗斯会为自己的行为找任何借口，包括北约的存在。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
NATO does not exist to provoke Russia, it exists to defend against Russia. Russia just dislikes it because every country that joined NATO is one they can no longer easily bully and attack without consequence.
Saying that Russia's invasion of Ukraine was provoked because of NATO is denying the right to self determination of a whole bunch of countries, and it should be as socially unacceptable as saying the Nazis were provoked into attacking Poland. And any politician who suggests it deserves to be sidelined and excluded regardless of how good their domestic policy platform is.
北约的存在不是为了挑衅俄罗斯，而是为了防御俄罗斯。俄罗斯只是不喜欢它，因为每个加入北约的国家都是他们不能再轻易欺负和攻击而不承担后果的国家了。
说俄罗斯入侵乌克兰是因为北约的挑衅，这是在否认一大堆国家的自决权，这应该和说纳粹是被挑衅才攻击波兰一样，在社会上是不可接受的。任何提出这一建议的政客都应该被边缘化和排除在外，不管他们的国内政策纲领有多好。
'UK unemployment rises and wages growth falls in recession'. And the elephant in the room that no political party is talking about, is? Yes, you guessed it - Brexit.
Brexit, undeniably the most ludicrous, ill thought out, ideologically nuts thing that a nation could do. To actively cut off trade lixs and social mobility ties with the World's largest trade bloc.
In finality, there is no freedom, there is no other trade market, there is no freedom to choose whom to trade with, there is no free open market, there is now a distinct absence of social mobility. Then again, that was the whole obxtive and aim of segregation from Europe: to isolate and remove freedoms and rights from the British people. In fact, one can easily now state that Brexit is a crime against the people of the UK. Anyone that says different has fallen for the ideological nonsense, or lies, spoken by those that campaigned to leave the EU.
Leaving the EU was never in the nation's interest. Why can't the politicians on both sides of the house admit that fact?
“在衰退中，英国失业率上升，工资增速下降”。没有哪个政党谈论的房间里的大象，是吗？是的，你猜对了大象是什么——英国脱欧。
不可否认，英国脱欧是一个国家所能做的最荒唐、考虑不周、意识形态最疯狂的事情。积极切断与世界最大贸易集团的贸易联系和社会流动联系。
最后结果，没有自由，没有其他贸易市场，没有选择与谁进行贸易的自由，没有自由开放的市场，现在明显缺乏社会流动性。然而，这就是英国与欧洲隔离的全部目的和主旨：孤立并剥夺英国人民的自由和权利。事实上，人们现在可以很容易地说，脱欧是对英国人民的犯罪。任何持不同意见的人，都是听信了那些支持脱欧人士的意识形态胡说八道或谎言。
离开欧盟从来不符合英国的利益。为什么议会两边的政客都不能承认这个事实呢？
Unemployment was at a 50 year low, it could only have gone up. Hopefully successful businesses are able to hire more quickly now. It's been tough finding candidates for the last 18 months. This has been a real blocker on the economy growing.
A recession will probably end up helping the economy in the long run as it should unblock the inability to find new staff. It will be the least successful businesses that fail first, i.e. the ones not generating much profit or growth.
失业率处于50年来的最低水平，它本就只会上升。希望成功的企业现在能够更快地招聘。在过去的18个月里，很难找到合适的人选。这一直是经济增长的真正障碍。
从长远来看，经济衰退可能最终会对经济有所帮助，因为它应该能解决找不到新员工的问题。首先失败的将是那些最不成功的企业，即那些没有产生多少利润或增长的企业。
Just like the last recession helped the economy in the long run? The burden of recession is borne by the middle classes, we have an economic model that relies on the tax receipts and consumption of the middle classes. Gutting the middle classes isn't good for the economy, it's like chopping off your leg to lose weight.
就像上一次经济衰退从长远来看帮助了经济一样？经济衰退的负担由中产阶级承担，我们的经济模式依赖于中产阶级的税收收入和消费。消灭中产阶级对经济没有好处，就像砍掉你的腿来减肥一样。
This was the intended effect of the interest rate rises. Cut inflation by cutting wages, which is achieved by cutting demand and "cooling" the economy.
In this instance, the inflation was not being caused by wage rises or an overheating economy, and would have come down anyway once the supply shocks were past.
Some people will disagree with my second paragraph. But the first paragraph is not disputable - that's how the interest rate rises were supposed to work.
这是加息的预期效果。通过削减工资来降低通胀，这是通过削减需求和“冷却”经济来实现的。
在这种情况下，通胀不是由工资上涨或经济过热引起的，一旦供给冲击过去，通胀无论如何都会下降。
有些人会不赞同我的第二段。但第一段是无可争议的——这就是加息应当发挥作用的方式。
Ah, a week or so back I said new figures would show this and got downvoted.
It is going to get a lot worse.
I love how these figures are always "unexpectedly".
In 2021 many knew inflation wasn't transitory. Experts didn't.
In 2022 many knew it would peak massively. Experts didn't. In 2023 they then overcorrected and many knew it. Experts didn't.
And after this shitshow, unemployment rising is unexpected? LOL.
It is VERY expected to anyone with a brain.
啊，大约一个星期前，我说新的数据会显示这一点，但被踩了。
情况会变得更糟。
我喜欢看这些数字总是“出乎意料”。
2021年，许多人都知道通胀不是暂时的。专家不这么认为。
2022年，许多人都知道它将达到峰值。专家不这么认为。到了2023年，他们矫枉过正，许多人也意识到了这一点。专家没有。
在这场闹剧之后，失业率上升是意料之外的吗？呵呵。
这对任何一个有脑子的人来说都是非常意料之中的。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Unbelievable that a party can be in government for 15 years and leave the place in shambles as it is.
We need actual smart people in the government.
令人难以置信的是，一个政党可以执政15年，让这个地方变得一团糟。
我们的政府需要真正聪明的人。
They only care about the interests of their own party. This comes from Lord Cameron’s wife with whom we used to do business with. She owns her own clothing brand. We were her suppliers.
他们只关心自己政党的利益。这句话出自卡梅伦勋爵的妻子之口，我们曾经和她有过生意往来。她拥有自己的服装品牌。我们是她的供应商。
Why do so many Brits tolerate poor wage growth, go protest and strike like doctors and train drivers did. It's bizarre how the Brits have been such sheep. In the past they would strike and protest a lot !
为什么这么多英国人容忍低工资增长，像医生和火车司机一样去抗议和罢工啊。奇怪的是，英国人竟然如此懦弱。在过去，他们可是经常罢工和抗议的！
They are too busy with the culture war issues. It also does not help that the alternative does not give a shit about this, either; they are more engrossed with -guess what- the culture wars. The current Labour actually despises the working class (uneducated, white trash as we know), so they are not exactly keen on trying to organize anything. And you have to have a real bad situation for a grassroot organization to succeed. (And even if there were one, it would be shut down as some sort of collection of racists and Nazis, because it would come from -you guessed it- the -mostly- white working class. And both sides of the political spectrum would be happy to work on squashing it because it would threaten their grab on power.)
他们忙于文化战争的议题。替代政党选项也不关心这一点，也不会有所帮助；他们更专注于——你猜是什么——文化战争。当前的工党实际上鄙视工人阶级（我们所知道的没有受过教育的白人垃圾），所以他们并不热衷于组织任何事情。一个草根组织要想成功，必须有一个非常糟糕的环境。（即使出现一个，它也会被当成种族主义者和纳粹分子的集合而被取缔，因为它会来自——你猜对了——主要是白人工人阶级。政治光谱的双方都很乐意努力压制它，因为这将威胁到他们对权力的攫取。）