什么东西现在很正常，但是25年后就不会了？
What is normal now but won't be in 25 years?
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预测未来。
正文翻译
What is normal now but won't be in 25 years?
什么东西现在很正常，但是25年后就不会了？
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We’re slowly seeing paperwork die out in hospitals as nurses. I often think about down the line when employees will think it’s crazy I worked when they still used paper. Everything is online now.
我们护士发现医院里的纸质文件正在逐渐变少。我经常会想，等到什么时候医院的雇员们会觉得我们工作的时候还用纸质文件简直难以置信。现在什么东西都是线上的了。
I’ve had the opposite experience at pregnancy appointments. I’ll fill EVERYTHING out online and they still make me fill out 7 pages of the same info in person
我在妊娠预约的时候的体验则恰好相反。哪怕我在网上把一切东西都填好了，他们仍然要我当面再把同样的七页纸的信息再填一遍。
I was raised in the professional world by someone who believes in paper over everything so I still keep paper copies of important things, but most of what I do has to be online because I work for a school and our school and district is pushing to do almost everything online.
我在职业人员的家庭长大，我的父母相信纸质文件优于一切，因此我总是会为重要的东西留一份纸质的备份，但我所做的绝大部分事情都不得不放在线上，因为我在学校工作，而我们的学校和辖区正在推进一切线上办公。
有一天，在正式上学之后大概一个小时，教学楼的互联网断了。课上不下去，因为教学计划全在谷歌云盘上。考试考不下去，因为没法打开考试软件。午餐免费了，因为自助餐厅没法读取学生账户。互联网到那天半夜才回复运行，所以这一整天学校都疯了，孩子没有课，75%的员工没法上班。
一切都转为线上的好处就是获取更便捷，分享更方便。但转为线上的缺点就是只要出了一点小故障（或是有一个人做坏事），整套系统就都会停止运转。
Plus I believe research has shown that writing notes - on actual paper- increases retention and comprehension. We are constantly warned about the dangers of screen time but every time I turn around, kids have yet another required computer application they need to get work done.
此外我记得有研究证明，用手写笔记——在真正的纸上——能够改善你的记忆和理解。我们总是在被警告长时间使用屏幕的危害，但是每次我转过身看的时候，我家孩子们又有一样作业是需要相应的电脑软件才能完成的。
Also you don't have to adhere to any rules when writing notes on paper. Style is free, form is free, no need to follow any template or structure. You can doodle pictures on it on a whim, you can highlight text by circling it or underlining it without worries, you can add random notes to the margins.
此外当你在纸上写笔记的时候，你也不需要遵守任何的规则。风格是自由的，形式是自由的，你不需要遵守任何的模板或是结构。你可以想画个涂鸦就画一张，你可以画圈或者画下划线来给某个地方加重点而不用担心，你可以往页边上加入补充的东西。
我总是会在身边备着一本笔记和一支笔，就是因为尽管我肯定可以在电脑上更好地写下什么东西，或者解什么方程，或者画个东西让自己看得更明白，但我用不着想我该打开什么软件，怎么设置，选择哪个工具，哪个笔刷的型号和形状，什么都不用想。我只需要拿起笔记本，拿起笔，直接就开始写。
如果你想要到后面把结果弄清楚，弄好看的话，那电脑真的不错。但是如果你只是想试试解决一些问题，那么什么都比不上可靠的纸笔好用。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Possibly posting very personal details of your life on social media
或许就是把你生活中非常私人的细节发到社交媒体上吧。
Kind of weird. When I was in middle school (early 2000s) I remember being hammered in my head how dangerous sharing personal information was, and everyone was afraid of doing anything like that. Then social media got popular and everything went out the window.
真的挺怪的。我还在上中学的时候（2000年代早期），脑子里记得最深的就是在网上分享私人信息是一件特别危险的事情，所有人都很害怕做这种事情。然后社交媒体忽然火了起来，一切就都管不住了。
Yeah I(old) remember the days of homepages, “be careful what information you post”. Fast forward to now … your wedding party? Post that damn thing online for 3 billion users! The more the better
没错我（老东西）也记得在主页时代，“要小心你发的信息”，但快进到今天……你的结婚典礼？把那玩意儿发到网上给三十亿用户看看！越多越好！
They told us in grade school (in the 90s) not to wear one of those sports jackets that have your first name embroidered on the sleeve, in case a stranger drove up, knew your name, pretended to know your parents, and then abducted you. Times they are a changing.
上小学的时候（90年代）他们跟我们说别穿那种袖子上缝着名字的运动衫，不然如果有陌生人开车过来，看见你的名字，假装认识你的爸妈，就能把你绑走。时代是真的在变化。
I swear to god. Using social media as it is used right now will probably be looked at like smoking tobacco is right now.
我向上帝发誓。对现在这么用社交媒体的看法，到时候很可能就会变得像我们现在看待吸烟一样。
Definitely. I’ve already seen posts from younger users saying “my parents posted my whole childhood online and I absolutely hate it”.
肯定的。我已经看见了一些年纪小的用户说“我爸妈把我的童年全发到网上了，我要恨死他们了。”
Yeah there are sooooo many families with multiple kinds of social media accounts on which the parent posts what the kids say, what their behavior is like, lots of photos, etc.
没错有太多家庭注册了很多社交媒体账号，父母在上面上传孩子们说了什么，孩子们的行为是什么，有很多的照片，等等。
Mom props phone in bathroom.
妈妈在洗手间里把手机架好。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
开始录制站在洗手池前面凳子上的两岁孩子。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
“好啦乔尼，我要把门关上了。你可以想说什么脏话就说什么脏话，而且妈妈不打你！说完了跟我说一声！”
这种风潮开始之后我就把抖音删了。现在的人到底怎么回事？
wtf? This is a real thing?
我草？真有这种事？
Someone I know has a literal Instagram of her 4 year old daughter, that she runs as if it's her daughter posting and it's the most cringe thing I've ever seen in my life
我认识个人给自己的4岁姑娘注册了个Instagram账号，她假装是自己的女儿在发，这是我这辈子看过的最让人脚趾扣地的事情。
It's not even just younger people. It's so annoying when my mom posts every little thing that I do and whenever we go do something she's taking pictures to put online and what not. I'm in my 30s I think I should get a say if my pictures are posted somewhere but I can't visit mom for dinner without her sneaking pictures to post online.
不只是年轻人。我妈妈也喜欢把我做的每一件小事都发到网上，只要我们去做什么事情，她就要拍点照片发到网上。我已经三十多岁了，我觉得如果我的照片要被发到各种地方，那我也应该对此有许可，现在我找我妈妈吃顿晚饭，她都要偷拍点东西发到网上。
Something will happen regarding AI that will suddenly alarm everyone. AI has already been hoovering up data all over the internet. How long until your face shows up on an image generated by ChatGPT or MidJourney? That'll be the day a lot of people switch to private or deactivate accounts.
AI将会发生一些事情让所有人开始警觉。AI已经在互联网上各处收集数据了。还有多久，你的脸就会出现在ChatGPT或者MidJourney生成的图片上？等到那一天，就会有很多人切换到私有账号或者干脆注销账号。
或者有些事情将会忽然改变公众的认知，让AI和社交媒体大数据的交融成为话题中心。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Eventually, AI will do your stalking for you. Your AR glasses will scan a girl in the bar and match her to an Instagram account, then go around the net and find all the information it can about her. Name, birthday, address, phone number, hobbies, her pet's name, her family's information, the picture she took of her breakfast two years ago, collecting complaints to get a basic medical history, even grabbing from public anonymized-but-not-really data sets to pull purchase history, browsing habits, and even creepier stuff that can be either found or derived by calculating many points of data. Gone will be the days of giving someone a fake number or getting them bounced if they're pushy. One look and they'll know where you live and when you're home alone. And if that's too much effort, you could just click a button and generate porn of her and you together, either to enjoy or to mass mail to her family for daring to reject you.
最终，AI会替你跟踪别人。你的AR眼镜将会扫描酒吧里的姑娘，然后把她和Instagram账号联系起来，然后去网上收集和她有关的一切信息。姓名，生日，住址，手机号，爱好，宠物的名字，家人的信息，两年前吃过的一顿早饭的照片，把吐槽的动态收集起来制作一份病史，甚至从公共的并没那么匿名的数据库里得到她的购买历史，浏览习惯，或许通过搜寻或者推测更多的数据点，还能得到更可怕的东西。有人追得太猛就给个假电话或者让他们滚蛋的日子已经一去不复返了，只要看你一眼，他们就会知道你住在哪，你什么时候一个人在家。并且如果觉得这也太麻烦，你可以按一个按钮，声称一份你和她的黄片，要么自己想用，要么群发给她的家庭成员，因为她竟敢拒绝你的追求。
我们美国人能够拥有如此年轻，合作，并且懂技术的国会，可以在这种事情毁灭无以计数的生活之前将其扼杀在摇篮中，这简直是件好事。如果没有他们，我们就什么都做不了，只能恐慌地看着这种预测不断接近现实，而我们的国会议员们戴着镶宝石的氧气面罩，大声问自己的助手什么是电子邮件，请告诉谷歌先生他们不想买。你能想象吗？
As someone whose come up from having to look number up in the phone book to MySpace and the original Facebook to the current status of social media, I think that social media will become even more ingrained in your life that you won’t even know you’re participating. Nowadays every app lets you check in or review or share or document your life somehow depending on how it pertains to that specific app. This is social media. You can get an email from google with every place you visited for that month. Every month there is an email saying “you visited 5 states, left the country 3 times, this was your favorite store since you went here the most”. And it’s not stuff you checked into just places you went with your phone. That’s right now. The future will be that times a 1000
作为一名经历了在黄页里找电话到MySpace再到最开始的Facebook再到今天的社交媒体时代的人，我觉得社交媒体将会进一步和你的生活整合在一起，以至于你都不知道自己在使用它。现在每个应用都会让你确认，或是审视，或是分享，或是记录你的生活，取决于不同的应用。这就是一种社交媒体。你可以从谷歌收到邮件，得知你上个月都去过哪些地方。每个月你都会收到一份邮件，告诉你“你去了五个州，出了三趟国，这是你最喜欢的一家店，因为你去的次数最多。”这还不是你自己确认过的东西，只是你戴着手机去过的地方。这还是现在。未来只会变成现在乘以一千。
并且每个特别的应用都会被整合进一站式的通用应用里面。所以到了未来，你的一切都会被自动分享给你身边的人，这将会被视为正常现象。
Ordering food and drink from a human in a drive thru
得来速餐厅里负责点单的人类
There was a drive thru I went to last year where the order was taken over the speaker by a bot. It actually did a better job than most people who take orders and asked me if I wanted to add bacon.
去年我去过一家得来速，订单是通过机器人用扬声器接收的。其实它比绝大多数人类做得还好，甚至还问我要不要加培根。
Single family homes in major cities owned by the middle class.
大城市里单身家庭的房子，被中产阶级占据。
I can see a potential future where a majority of people have to rent because corporations have bought up most housing.
我能预见一个潜在的未来，大多数人都只能租房生活，因为公司把绝大多数的住房都买了下来。
Fax machine in offices
办公室里的传真机
Ha, that's what they said 25 years ago.
哈，二十五年前他们就是这么说的。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
The sad: glaciers and snow during winter
难过的：冰川和冬天的雪花
好的：一次性塑料和一周五天工作制
悲观的：人类文明
乐观的：核威胁
Octogenarians in office.
办公室里的八旬老翁
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
I can confidently say that nobody born in the 1940's will be holding elective office in the year 2049.
我可以很自信地说，等到2049年，上世纪40年代出生的人将不再担任竞选职位。
Young adults having the ability to read and write. Gen Z is functional, but Gen A seems to be severely behind in their academics and they don't care.
青年读写的能力。九零后还行，但零零后的学业看起来已经远远落后了，并且他们并不在乎。
As an older gen Z, I'm really thankful that my early grade school education was before you had a device that could answer all of your questions. Mental math and memorization was a big part of my education. I even had to learn cursive, even if it was completely ignored after elementary school. I got "the old doctrine" with tech still being a big part of my education. It seems like the students even a few grades after me had their education completely revamped to be entirely tech focused. In my district, they even stopped doing multiplication tables, because you'll always have a calculator in a post smartphone world
作为一名90后，我非常庆幸自己上小学的时候还没有那种能回答你所有问题的设备。心算和记忆是我教育的重要部分。我甚至得学手写体，尽管小学毕业之后就没在用过。尽管科技仍然是我教育的重要部分，但我接受的还是“老一套”教育。好像我之后的几年，学生们的教育就完全围绕科技重新构建了。在我所在的辖区，他们甚至不再背乘法表了，因为在后智能手机时代，你手头永远有计算器。
The education gap that occurred during the pandemic is serious and bad. Teachers across disciplines see it; kids are legitimately 2 years (or more) behind previous milestones.
疫情期间造成的教育断层严重又糟糕。各个学科的教师都看得出来：孩子们距离他们应有的学习能力差了整整两年（可能还要更多）。
在我看来，假装问题不存在比放慢角度承认问题还要糟糕。很多人想要当这种事情不想关，因为那些成绩本来就好的学生并没受到严重的打击。
假装无事发生继续下去，不仅对于这些孩子，对于社会本身也是一种不负责任。
Parents need to step the fuck up. Like you gotta teach shit at home if your kids not responding well to school. Can't just let them flunk their way into adulthood it's depressing.
家长们应该他妈赶紧站出来。要是你家孩子在学校反馈不好，你就得在家里教点东西。不能让他们就这么摆到成年，这太令人压抑了。
I have multiple friends who left education as a career because parents demand that teachers be solely responsible for their child's success, and the teachers get all the blame when the kids fail. These parents don't get involved with their child's education, don't help them succeed, and instead just demand that the teacher does it all.
我有好几个朋友都离开了教学行业，因为家长们总是要求教师承担孩子成功的一切责任，而孩子失败的话教师也要承担所有骂声。这些家长根本不会介入孩子的教育，不会帮他们成功，只会要求教师把所有事情都承担起来。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
That's so odd to me. When I was a kid both of my parents regularly helped me with homework, would help me study for tests, would proofread my papers. And some of this was pre-Wikipedia. The idea of not having parents invested in my education is totally foreign to me.
这在我看来太奇怪了。我还小的时候，我父母都会定期辅导我的作业，会帮我复习备考，会审阅我的论文。这还是在有维基百科之前的时候。我的教育没有父母介入，这对我来说简直太奇怪了。
Owning things. Everything is slowly turning to digital or subscxtion models
拥有东西。现在一切都在慢慢变成数字或是订阅模式。
Ugh. Like Microsoft office, subscxtion makes sense for them but I’m not getting much for it. How much can you upxe a simple word processor?
哎。比如微软Office，订阅确实说得通，但我是想不太明白。一个文字处理器你能升级出多少花样来？
I hope it will be single use plastic
我希望是一次性塑料
yes, but find a better alternative for paper straws
没错，但先给纸吸管找个更好的替代品吧。
My favorite is the paper straws wrapped in plastic on some juice boxes... Genius!
我最喜欢的就是某些盒装饮料上，用塑料包起来的纸吸管……真他妈天才！
We bought glass straws for the house. Epic. No, we don’t have small children.
我们家里买了玻璃吸管。牛逼。我家没有小孩子。
I think it is more likely that we discover a biodegredable plastic than an alternative to plastic.
我觉得比起发现塑料的替代品，更有可能的是我们会发现一种可生物降解的塑料。