【“非洲之王” 传音要超小米赶三星】


Chinese cellphone maker Shenzhen Transsion Holdings Co. Ltd. (688036.SH) is renowned for its beginnings in Africa, where it dominates the market with its cheap but local-friendly models. Now, the company is starting to spread its wings beyond its traditional stronghold to other developing markets, posing a potential threat to Chinese rivals like xiaomi (1810.HK) and Oppo.

中国手机制造商深圳传音控股股份有限公司(688036.SH)以发源于非洲而闻名，凭借廉价但适合当地用户的机型主导着非洲市场。现在，公司开始从传统据点向其他发展中市场扩张，对小米集团(1810.HK)和Oppo等中国竞争对手构成了潜在威胁。

New data released this month indicate the expansion is yielding some early success. The company became the world’s fourth-largest smartphone vendor during last year’s fourth quarter for the first time after shipping 28.2 million smartphones – up 68.6% year-on-year, according to IDC. That far outpaced all of its other rivals in the top five, and was also well ahead of the overall market’s 8.5% growth.

本月发布的最新数据表明，扩张正在取得初步成功。国际数据公司显示，去年第四季度，该公司首次成为全球第四大智能手机供应商，出货量达到2,820万部，同比增长68.6%。增幅远远超过前五名的竞争对手，也遥遥领先于整个市场8.5%的增速。

That growth is even faster than the 33.3% revenue growth the company projected last month for 2023, indicating it may be cutting prices or going even further down market in its bid to quickly gain share in its newer markets. The company anticipates it will report its revenue for all of 2023 climbed to 62.1 billion yuan ($8.8 billion), while its profit more than doubled to 5.4 billion yuan. The company attributed the strong growth to “continuously exploring emerging markets and advancing product upgrades,” according to its revenue and profit forecast issued last month.

这个增幅甚至比该公司上个月预测2023年全年收入增长33.3%要快，全赖公司在降价及进一步向下游市场进军，从而快速获得新市场的份额。公司预计，2023年全年收入将攀升至621亿元，利润将增长一倍多，达到54亿元。上月发布收入和利润预测时，公司将强劲增长归因于“持续开拓新兴市场及推进产品升级”。

Founded in 2006, Transsion and its Tecno, Itel, and Infinix brands have become household names and a dominate force across an African market that was overlooked for years by most of its peers. It earned its success by catering to the needs of African mobile users with several savvy strategies. Notable among these was its specially designed cameras with beautification features optimized for darker skin tones.

传音控股成立于2006年，它和旗下的Tecno、Itel和Infinix已成为家喻户晓的品牌，是非洲市场的主导力量，该市场被它的同行忽视多年。传音通过推出多项聪明策略，满足非洲移动用户的需求，从而获得了成功。其中值得关注的是其专门设计的照相功能，具有对较深肤色进行优化的美化功能。

As the company looks to replicate its African success in other emerging markets, investors will be closely watching Transsion's progress in other regions such as South Asia, Latin America, and Southeast Asia.

随着公司寻求在其他新兴市场复制非洲的成功，投资者将密切关注传音在南亚、拉丁美洲和东南亚等其他地区的进展。

Its strong growth has translated to Transsion’s stock. Its shares have risen steadily since its listing in 2019, including a more than 60% increase over the past year – a rare feat in China’s slumping stock markets that have been some of the world’s worst performers over that time. Its latest closing price of 145 yuan on Thursday was down from the 250 yuan level reached in early 2021, but remains over four times higher than its listing price of 35.5 yuan.

它的强劲增长已经在股价上有所反映。自2019年上市以来，其股价稳步上涨，过去一年涨幅超过60%，实属罕见，因同期中国股市暴跌，是全球表现最差的市场之一。周四最新收盘价为145元，低于2021年初曾达到的250元，但仍比发行价35.5元高出三倍多。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


While the stock trades on China's domestic A-shares market, it is also accessible to international investors through a program lixing the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock exchanges. Even after its stock’s recent pullback, the shares still trade at a healthy price-to-earnings ratio of about 29, well ahead of xiaomi’s 20.

虽然该股在中国国内A股市场交易，但国际投资者也可通过沪港通交易该股。即使经历了近期的回调，该股的市盈率仍保持在约29倍的高位，远远领先于小米的20倍。

Out of Africa

走出非洲进军东南亚

Transsion is the "King of Africa," having become the continent’s largest smartphone seller since at least 2017. It controlled 48% of the market by shipping 8.6 million smartphones there in last year’s third quarter, well above second-place Samsung at 26%, according to Canalys.

传音被称为“非洲之王”，至少从2017年起，它就是非洲大陆最大的智能手机销售商。根据Canalys的数据，去年第三季度，公司在非洲的智能手机出货量为860万部，占据了48%的市场份额，远高于第二名三星的26%。

The company began exploring expansion beyond Africa in 2015, announcing plans to enter specific markets in South Asia, Latin America, and Southeast Asia. These three regions remain the focus of the company's international growth efforts, consistently listed in its earnings reports as priority areas for further market penetration and expansion.

公司于2015年开始探索非洲以外的扩张，宣布进入南亚、拉丁美洲和东南亚特定市场的计划。这三个地区现在仍然是传音控股国际增长努力的重点，在财报中一直被列为进一步的市场渗透和扩张的优先地区。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


The rationale for Transsion's choice of new markets beyond Africa is clear. Those regions share many traits with Africa in terms of their development, and offer a huge demographic opportunity with a combined population exceeding 4 billion and relatively low smartphone penetration rates. Many nations within those regions are also at an inflection point, as declining mobile fees and the shift from basic phones to smartphones drive increased usage and upgrades.

传音决定走出非洲的理由显而易见。上述地区在发展方面与非洲有许多共同之处，人口总数超过40亿，智能手机普及率相对较低，这是巨大的人口机遇。这些地区的许多国家也正处于一个拐点，移动费用的下降及从基础手机向智能手机的转变，推动了智能手机的普及和迭代。

Compared to more mature markets like China, Europe and North America where smartphone sales growth has slowed in recent years or even contracted, sales in these emerging regions continue to rise. For example, smartphone sales in Latin America grew 9% year-over-year in last year’s third quarter, while they were up 21% in the Middle East, and 7% in Southeast Asia, according to recent reports.

近年来，中国、欧洲和北美等成熟市场的智能手机销量增长放缓，甚至出现萎缩，相比之下，这些新兴地区的销量却持续上升。最近的报告显示，去年三季度，拉丁美洲的智能手机销量同比增长9%，中东增长21%，东南亚增长7%。

One region where Transsion has seen particular success is India, a market it first entered in 2015 and where many of its Chinese peers are also very active. While Transsion's brands made gradual gains at first, recent data indicates those gains have begun to accelerate.

印度是传音非常成功的一个地区，公司于2015年首次进入这个市场，很多中国手机企业在这里都非常活跃。虽然一开始传音旗下的品牌进展缓慢，但最近有数据显示，增长开始加速。

According to Counterpoint Research, the company’s Tecno, Itel, and Infinix brands in India collectively rose in market share from 6.3% in 2022 to 8.6% in 2023. This helped Transsion reduce the gap with Chinese rivals like xiaomi and Oppo in the world's second largest market.

根据Counterpoint Research的数据，公司旗下Tecno、Itel和Infinix品牌在印度的市场份额从2022年的6.3%上升至2023年的8.6%。这有助于传音缩小与小米、Oppo等中国竞争对手在这个全球第二大市场的差距。

While the company doesn’t break down its revenue by geography, a report from Chinese brokerage Soochow Securities estimated that regions outside of Africa accounted for 50.9% of Transsion's total revenue in 2022. The report also projected the proportion of non-Africa revenues will continue to grow over the coming years.

虽然传音未按地域对收入进行划分，但中国券商东吴证券的一份报告估计，2022年，非洲以外的地区在传音总收入当中占比50.9%。该报告还预测，非洲以外地区的收入比例将在未来几年持续增长。

Transsion's movement beyond Africa will also come with challenges. Chief among those is the stiffer competition it will face from its hometown Chinese rivals, including not only xiaomi and Oppo, but Vivo and OnePlus. Additionally, as with other Chinese companies expanding abroad, Transsion will face issues often seen in developing markets, such as inconsistent regulations and diverse consumer tastes.

传音在非洲以外市场的发展也将面临诸多挑战。其中较大的挑战是，它将面临来自中国本土竞争对手更激烈的竞争，不仅有小米、Oppo，还有Vivo和一加。此外，与其他在海外扩张的中国企业一样，传音也面临发展中市场常见的问题，比如法规的差异，以及消费者品味的不同。

Like many of its Chinese rivals, for example, Transsion is facing a significant legal and administrative challenge in India amid rising geopolitical tensions between Beijing and Delhi. According to corporate filings, Transsion's Indian subsidiary, Ismatu India Private, has been under investigation by revenue authorities regarding customs duties paid on its previous display-component imports. xiaomi and Vivo also are facing similar allegations of tax evasion by the Indian government.

比如，与许多中国竞争对手一样，随着中印地缘政治紧张局势加剧，传音在印度也面临重大的法律和行政挑战。公司备案文件显示，传音控股的印度子公司Ismatu India Private正在接受税务机关对其之前的屏幕组件进口关税调查。小米和Vivo也面临印度政府提出的类似逃税指控。

At the end of day, Transsion's growth prospects will hinge on how well it can scale its international presence beyond Africa. As it does that, the company is also looking to expand its product portfolio, taking a page from rival xiaomi's playbook in venturing into new categories like its Syinix home appliances launched in India back in 2015. But such initiatives will be a hit-or-miss effort, with available information showing these ancillary categories have yet to meaningfully contribute to Transsion's overall revenues.

总而言之，传音的发展前景将取决于它在非洲以外的国际业务拓展情况。在此过程中，该公司还希望扩大产品组合，借鉴竞争对手小米的做法，进军新品类，如2015年在印度推出Syinix家电产品。但此类举措成败难料，目前的信息显示，这些辅助品类尚未对传音的整体收入做出有意义的贡献。
【是时候考虑人工智能税了】
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处



After years of wrangling, a global minimum corporate tax rate of 15 per cent is finally in effect. These groundbreaking new rules were driven by the desire to prevent big companies, often in the tech sector, from flocking to tax havens or jurisdiction shopping. There are a host of public policy solutions that the anticipated $220bn in annual collection can help address. But even though the ink on the treaty is barely dry, it is time to start talking about a new one: targeted at artificial intelligence companies.

经过多年的争论，15%的全球最低公司税率终于生效了。这些突破性的新规定是为了防止大公司（通常是科技行业的大公司）涌向避税港或选择对自己有利的司法管辖区。预计每年2200亿美元的税收可以帮助落实许多公共政策解决方案。但是，尽管这项协议的墨迹还没干，现在也是时候开始讨论一项新的协议了：针对人工智能公司征税。

Generative AI is already bringing a host of societal challenges. Global job losses are one key expected effect. While the political debate remains largely focused on safety and security harms, various studies foresee deep disruptions to labour because of the technology. It was Elon Musk who raised the future of work on the margins of last year’s AI safety summit. He casually mentioned, in a conversation with UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, that we must anticipate a society in which “no job is needed”. The reverberations of that are unimaginable.

生成式人工智能已经带来了许多社会挑战。全球失业是一个主要的预期影响。虽然政治辩论仍主要集中安全和保障方面的危害上，但各种研究预测，人工智能技术将对劳动力造成深刻颠覆。正是埃隆·马斯克在去年的人工智能安全峰会期间提出了关于工作的未来的问题。在与英国首相里希·苏纳克的一次谈话中，他不经意地提到，我们必须预见到一个“不需要工作”的社会。这种情形的影响是难以想象的。

And it is not just tech mavericks like Musk who predict major disruption. A study by Goldman Sachs projects almost $7tn of additional growth for the global economy over 10 years, while expecting that roughly two-thirds of US jobs will be at risk of being impacted by AI. McKinsey anticipates up to 30 per cent of worked hours in America will be affected by automation in the next six years. Twelve-million people will need “occupational transitions” in addition to those already facing obsolescence.

不仅仅是像马斯克这样的科技特立独行者预测了重大颠覆。高盛的一项研究预计，未来10年生成式人工智能将使全球经济额外增长近7万亿美元，同时预计美国约三分之二的就业岗位可能受到人工智能影响。麦肯锡预计，未来6年，美国多达30%的工作时间将被自动化。除了那些已经面临淘汰的人之外，还有1200万人需要“职业转型”。

While consultants are optimistic that AI will “enhance” jobs rather than replace them, research by ResumeBuilder found that more than a third of business leaders said AI had already replaced workers in 2023. There is no indication that the more sophisticated versions of generative AI would lead to a slowdown in impact on employment.

尽管咨询师们乐观地认为，人工智能将“增强”而不是取代工作，但ResumeBuilder的研究发现，超过三分之一的商业领袖表示，2023年人工智能已经在取代工人。没有迹象表明，更先进版本的生成式人工智能会放缓对就业的影响。

Although scenarios differ, they all signal similar trends. Jobs will be displaced, and even if there may be an economic upside in the longer term, the transition will require significant public policy efforts. Governments need to zoom in on the specifics of their own national economies and anticipate the impact of AI, sector by sector.

尽管情景不同，但它们都预示着相似的趋势。工作岗位将会被取代，即使从长远来看可能会有经济上的好处，这种转变也需要大量的公共政策努力。政府需要关注本国经济的具体情况，并逐个行业地预测人工智能的影响。

On the corporate side, there are also unprecedented shifts taking place. Already, we see AI companies as a major component of the most highly valued corporations in the world. In the US, tech companies helped drive gross domestic product growth in 2023. At the same time, AI threatens to exacerbate the concentration of capital into the hands of even fewer companies.

在企业方面，也发生了前所未有的变化。我们已经看到，人工智能公司成了世界上估值最高的公司的主要组成部分。在美国，科技公司帮助推动了2023年的国内生产总值增长。与此同时，人工智能有可能加剧资本向更少公司的集中。

“Over the past four decades, automation has raised productivity and multiplied corporate profits, but it has not led to shared prosperity in industrial countries,” say Daron Acemoğlu and Simon Johnson in a paper for the IMF. In other words, the benefits of automation are not shared automatically. (More research is needed into the specific effects on jobs across the global south.)

达龙·阿西莫格鲁和西蒙·约翰逊在为国际货币基金组织撰写的一篇论文中表示：“在过去40年里，自动化提高了生产率，使企业利润成倍增长，但它并没有在工业国家带来共同富裕。”换句话说，自动化的好处不会自动共享。（这对全球南方就业的具体影响需要更多的研究。）

Without intervention, the next chapter of the technological revolution risks once again privatising profits while pushing the costs of mitigating its harms on to the public. Paying for welfare and reskilling laid-off workers are not just economic downsides: they signal the kinds of societal shifts that easily lead to political unrest. For generations, work has been the foundation not just of family income but also of people’s routine and sense of purpose. Try imagining what you would do without your job.

如果不进行干预，技术革命的下一章可能会再次将利润私有化，同时将减轻其危害的成本推给公众。支付福利和重新培训失业工人不仅仅是经济上的代价：它们还预示着那种容易导致政治动荡的社会转变。几代人以来，工作不仅是家庭收入的基础，也是人们日常生活和使命感的基础。试着想象一下没有工作你会做什么。

To rebalance the cost-benefit impacts of AI in favour of society — as well as to make sure the necessary response is affordable at all — taxing AI companies is the only logical step. I had not anticipated starting 2024 by agreeing with Bernie Sanders and Bill Gates, both of whom have proposed a tax on job-taking robots in the past, but here we are. An upxed version of their plan, taking in generative AI’s progress, is needed.

为了重新平衡人工智能的成本效益影响，使其有利于社会，并确保必要的应对措施是完全负担得起的，对人工智能公司征税是唯一合乎逻辑的措施。我不曾想到，2024年伊始，我会同意伯尼·桑德斯和比尔·盖茨的观点——他们两人都曾提议对代替工人从事工作的机器人征税。但现在我确实同意他们的看法。需要对他们的计划进行更新，将生成式人工智能的进展考虑在内。

A debate resulting in global political consensus may take years and should start now. Agreement must be reached around the percentage of revenue or profit to be taxable and the purpose of the tax — should it be focused on mitigating job losses specifically or on addressing the multiple societal impacts of AI more broadly? And given that China and the US are both leading AI developers and have not yet implemented the minimum corporate tax rate rules domestically, incentives and enforcements will have to be effective.

一场导致全球政治共识的辩论可能需要数年时间，现在就应该开始。必须就收入或利润的征税比例以及征税目的达成一致——是专注于减轻失业，还是更广泛地解决人工智能的多重社会影响？考虑到中国和美国都是领先的人工智能开发国，而且尚未在国内实施最低公司税率规定，激励措施和执行措施必须行之有效。

It took years to get a minimum global corporate tax base in place. Considering the impending costs to society, a conversation about a targeted tax for billion-dollar AI companies cannot wait.

达成全球最低公司税率花了数年时间。考虑到人工智能即将给社会带来的成本，讨论对价值数十亿美元的人工智能公司有针对性地征税刻不容缓。