QA问答：你赞成将棉兰老岛与菲律宾分离吗？
https://www.quora.com/Are-you-in-favor-of-separating-Mindanao-from-the-Philippines
译文简介
首先，这是菲律宾的内政。作为中国人，我们只是一个旁观者，菲律宾内政与我们无关。
正文翻译
Are you in favor of separating Mindanao from the Philippines?
你赞成将棉兰老岛与菲律宾分离吗？
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First of all, this is the internal affairs of the Philippines. As a Chinese, we are just a bystander, and the internal affairs of the Philippines are none of our business.
The long-standing conflict of faith between Musli... and Christians in the Philippines is not recent, but long-standing.
In fact, the reason why the issue of Mindanao independence has become a hot topic in the news is mainly because of the huge conflict between Rodrigo Duterte and Bongbong Marcos over amending the constitution. Rodrigo Duterte said that if the constitution is not amended, Duterte will Support Mindanao independence.
首先，这是菲律宾的内政。作为中国人，我们只是一个旁观者，菲律宾内政与我们无关。
菲律宾穆斯林和基督徒之间，存在着长期的信仰冲突，这不是最近才发生的，而是长期存在的。
事实上，棉兰老岛独立问题之所以成为新闻热点，主要是因为罗德里戈·杜特尔特和邦邦·马科斯在修宪问题上发生了巨大冲突。罗德里戈·杜特尔特表示，如果不修改宪法，杜特尔特将支持棉兰老岛独立。
Trump wanted to take back the presidency that belonged to him, and launched an armed riot when Biden first took office. Now, Trump is resentful of many of Biden's actions. He is using the Texas border wall to win support from red-neck forces in the United States and supports the independence of Texas to challenge the White House authorities. As Texas is supported by the state's National Guard, Trump will launch a military attack against Biden at any time.
然而，我认为唐纳德·特朗普想在美国发动内战的可能性比罗德里戈·杜特尔特想在菲律宾发动内战的可能大得多。
特朗普想夺回属于他的总统职位，并在拜登刚上任时发动了武装骚乱。现在，特朗普对拜登的许多行为感到不满。他正在利用得克萨斯州的边境墙来赢得美国红脖子们的支持，并支持得克萨斯州独立以挑战白宫当局。由于得克萨斯州得到该州国民警卫队的支持，特朗普将随时可以对拜登发动军事攻击。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Duterte does not have a regular combat force. If Duterte can get any military support, it is the rebels on Mindanao who have been fighting guerrilla warfare for a long time. However, the strength of these troops is very different from that of the Philippine military. Duterte will not armed conflict with the Manila authorities for the time being.
杜特尔特与马科斯的冲突，是菲律宾的“菲律宾人民矛盾”阶段，只是修宪引起的冲突。
杜特尔特没有正规的作战部队。如果说杜特尔特能得到什么军事支持，那就是棉兰老岛上长期打游击战的叛军。然而，这些部队的实力与菲律宾军队的实力差距太大。杜特尔特暂时不会与马尼拉当局发生武装冲突。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Mindanao is Duterte's stronghold, and the independence movement here has a long history. The island has long had separatist activities, which itself has this foundation.
Late last year, a close ally of Duterte mentioned that if Bongbong Marcos still goes his own way on the South China Sea policy, he will push for an independence referendum in Mindanao to avoid being dragged down by the Marcos government.
Therefore, Duterte’s proposal of independence for Mindanao at this time was not a whim, but a decision made after careful consideration. He also appointed his ally Pantaleon Alvarez as the leader of the independence movement to lead Mindanao on the independent path to Singapore model.
Duterte said that his "independence plan" is not a rebellion or coup, and there will be no bloody incidents. It will follow the procedures set by the United Nations. The so-called compliance with the United Nations level should refer to confirming the will of local people by collecting signatures.
In other words, holding an independence referendum and letting the people decide whether to be independent.
当然，这只是“暂时的”，后续的发展还有待观察。
棉兰老岛是杜特尔特的大本营，这里的独立运动历史悠久。该岛长期以来一直有分离主义活动，这本身就有这个基础。
去年年底，杜特尔特的一位亲密盟友提到，如果邦邦·马科斯在南海政策上仍我行我素，他将推动棉兰老岛举行独立公投，以避免被马科斯政府拖垮。
因此，杜特尔特此时提出的棉兰老岛独立并非一时兴起，而是经过深思熟虑后做出的决定。他还任命盟友潘塔莱恩·阿尔瓦雷斯为独立运动领袖，带领棉兰老岛走上独立的新加坡模式。
杜特尔特说，他的“独立计划”不是叛乱或政变，也不会发生流血事件。它将遵循联合国制定的程序。所谓遵守联合国程序，应该是指通过收集签名来确认当地人民的意愿。
换言之，举行独立公投，让人民决定是否独立。
Muslim presence in Mindanao probably predates christian by several centuries, Mindanao had their own sultanate before the Spanish came, while the northern part of Philippines are basically no man's land until the Spanish came and forced Christianity on everyone there.
穆斯林在棉兰老岛的存在，可能比基督教早了几个世纪，棉兰老岛在西班牙人到来之前就有了自己的苏丹国，而那时菲律宾北部基本上是无人区，直到西班牙人到来并将基督教强加给那里的每一个人。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Yes. This is a conflict with a long history.
是的。这是一场历史悠久的冲突。
I think china should arm the Muslim rebels in the south this is the way to break. The country appart, Philippines is the only country that , 100% in support of american presence in southeast asia as they're the only christian majority in the region，no one in the region see them as an ally nor close to them politically or strategically.
As far as I'm concerned china doesn't see them as potential ally from the beginning knowing their history with the American, this was the reason why even duterted failed to attract significant amount of Chinese investment.
我认为中国应该武装南方的穆斯林叛军——这是打破僵局的方法。
菲律宾是唯一一个100%支持美国在东南亚存在的国家，因为他们是该地区唯一的基督徒占多数的国家，该地区没有人将他们视为盟友，也没有人在政治或战略上与他们亲近。
就我看来，中国从一开始就不认为他们是潜在的盟友，因为他们了解自己与美国的历史，这就是为什么即使是杜特尔特也未能吸引到大量中国投资的原因。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
China has never interfered in the internal affairs of other countries.
But if Mindanao truly achieves independence and becomes an independent and sovereign country, the Chinese will definitely focus their investment on the friendly island of Mindanao and abandon other areas of the Philippines.
中国从不干涉别国内政。
但如果棉兰老岛真正实现独立，成为一个独立的主权国家，中国人肯定会把投资重点放在友好的棉兰老群岛上，放弃菲律宾的其他地区。
MARCOS Jr. must walk his own BS for supporting Taiwan separatists.
Let him face his own separatists in own country.
China should show strong support for Mindanao self determination rights.
小马科斯必须为支持台湾分裂分子而尝到自己废话的苦果。
让他在自己的国家面对自己的分离主义者。
中国应大力支持棉兰老岛的自决权。
There is only one China. It’s called Republic of China.
只有一个中国。它被称为“中华民国”。
FREE MINDANAO.️
解放棉兰老岛！
FREE VISAYAS as well.
也解放内格罗斯岛吧。
The Republic of Mindanao is the legitimate government of all Philippines and Marcos is the US puppet.
棉兰老岛共和国是整个菲律宾的合法政府，马科斯是美国的傀儡。
Chinese AND RUSSIAN should build joint naval base and install missiles on Cuban soil.
And do joint “freedom of navigation” exercise at the gulf of Mexico.
中国和俄罗斯应该在古巴领土上建立联合海军基地并安装导弹。
并在墨西哥湾进行联合“航行自由”演习。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Why separate Mindanao from the Philippines? There may be some radical Muslim terrorists in a part of the island who advocate separarion, but they do not represent the entire Muslim community. Anyway, the island is majority Christian.
Would the island become self governing? If so, any divisions based on religion would still exist.
Could it join Indonesia? I am not sure the majority Chrisitans in Mindanao would be supportive.
So no, I do not support separating Mindanao from the Philippines. My husband is from Surigao del Sur and we presently live on Luzon. He has aunts and cousins living in Bohol, Cebu and Luzon, in addition to his extended family in Mindanao. They would not wish to be separated.
为什么要把棉兰老岛和菲律宾分开？岛上的一部分地区可能有一些激进的穆斯林恐怖分子主张分裂，但他们并不代表整个穆斯林社区。不管怎么说，这个岛大部分都是基督徒。
让这个岛自治吗？如果是这样的话，任何基于宗教的分歧都将仍然存在。
让这个岛加入印尼吗？我不确定棉兰老岛的大多数基督教徒是否会支持。
所以，不，我不支持将棉兰老岛与菲律宾分离。我丈夫来自南苏里高，我们现在住在吕宋岛。除了棉兰老岛的大家庭外，他还有住在波荷岛、宿务岛和吕宋岛的姑姑和表兄弟。他们不希望分开。
It is not something about the Mindadao.
the point is, NO nation shall be presidented by a lapdog who obeys foreign spies for threats to freeze his secret foreign bank account, or to declassify his records on loli-island and "pizza shop".
Not for Philippines. Not for US.
这与棉兰老岛无关。
关键是，任何国家都不应该由一个听命于，一个会任由外国间谍威胁冻结其秘密外国银行账户、或解密其在萝莉岛和“披萨店”记录的走狗主持。
不适合菲律宾。也不适合美国。
Of course not! The person advocating for that must be arrested for treason. What a traitor. Am sure he will sell Mindanao to the highest bidder! He must face the consequences of his tokhang program. He said he was not afraid of the ICC. Why he is now quaking in his boots?
当然不！主张这样做的人必须以叛国罪被捕。这是个叛徒。我确信他会把棉兰老岛卖给出价最高的人！他必须面对其分离计划的后果。他说他并不害怕国际刑事法院。为什么他现在在靴子里发抖？
It will never happen. The old Duterte talking is just an emotional impulse, a dissatisfaction of the recent event (call for signature campaign of ambitious politicians that knows they will never win in popular election if they run for president or higher office) and maybe a self preservation.
它永远不会发生。杜特尔特的旧言论只是一种情绪冲动，是对最近事件的不满（呼吁雄心勃勃的政客进行签名运动，他们知道如果想竞选总统或更高职位，他们永远不会在普选中获胜），也许也是一种自我保护。
NO! Warlords in mindanao & throughout the country are restless & restive.
The Phil government/ marcos administration has opened the doors ro changes in the1987 constitution justifying the need to amend economic provisions that will provide the enabling environment to attract foreign investments.
This is an offshoot of the extensive foreign travels by then new Pres & his large entourage to attract investors to the country & the foreign commitments to materialize.
不！棉兰老岛和全国各地的军阀都焦躁难安。
菲律宾政府/马科斯政府为1987年宪法的修改打开了大门，证明有必要修改经济条款，为吸引外国投资提供有利的环境。
这是时任新总统及其庞大随行人员为吸引投资者到该国进行广泛海外旅行的一个分支，也是实现外国承诺的一个途径。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Aspirations of 1% elites oligarchs (political family dynasties, economic & military dynasties etc) that monopolize & control 80% of the country’s power & resources to entrench themselves in legitimate perpetual power thru: 1) a federal system of govt, 2) removing the limitations to tenure in elected public offices etc
CUrrently, are 2 major political family dynasties ( united under their so- called unity alliance) — known for their respective notoriety.
incumbent marcos that hold sway over vote- rich- luzon/ north & half of central Phil (thru cousins — the Romualdez clan)
former pres duterte & current vice- pres ( daughter) representing another vote rich mindanao/ south & half of central Phil (duterte paternal ancestry is from cebu — bisaya- speaking with other central phil islands also bisaya).
Currently, the families are positioning themselves/ allies/ regions for next presidential election ( 2028). -
但也有一些险恶的议程：
1%的精英寡头（政治家族王朝、经济和军事王朝等）垄断和控制国家80%的权力和资源，通过以下方式巩固自己的合法永久权力：
1）联邦政府制度
2）取消对民选公职任期的限制等
目前，有两个主要的政治家族王朝（在他们所谓的统一联盟下联合）——以各自的恶名而闻名。
1、对选票丰富的吕宋有影响力的现任：马科斯，他们控制北部和中部菲律宾的一半（通过表亲联合——罗穆尔德斯家族）
2、前总统杜特尔特和现任副总统（的女儿）代表另一个选票丰富的棉兰老岛，他们控制南部和中部菲尔岛的一半。杜特尔特的祖先来自宿务，哪里属于米沙鄢语支，中部菲尔岛其他岛屿也说米沙鄢语。
目前，这些家庭正在为下一届总统选举（2028年）定位自己/盟友/地区。
And surprise! Unexpected entry of the ICC investigating the thousands of extrajudicial killings under duterte’ war on drugs strongly opposed by then duterte administration clan/ allies & following.
Should the ICC investigation turn out against duterte, this would keep him & his dynasty occupied, opening the path for the Romualdez family ( of the marcos dynasty) in upcoming 2028 president election
但野心、贪婪和权力是不可预测的。
还有惊喜！国际刑事法院意外介入，调查杜特尔特禁毒战争期间数千起法外处决事件，这遭到杜特尔特政府部族/盟友及追随者的强烈反对。
如果国际刑事法院的调查结果是针对杜特尔特的，这将使他和他的王朝将继续被占领，为即将到来的2028年总统选举中的罗穆尔德斯家族（马科斯王朝）开辟道路。
The manila- centric government/ imperial manila — republican presidental form of government indeed is the aggravation to the underdevelopment of the rest of the 16 regions of the country vis- a vis the national capital region/metro manila.
Should mindanao secede from the country, it will remain as poor despite it endowed with natural resources, as the same political tyrants ( like the other regions) will become the supreme rulers.
预计到会产生不利影响，前总统杜特尔特现在呼吁保护南部/棉兰老岛等菲律宾群岛，以先发制人。
以马尼拉为中心的政府/帝国，马尼拉共和国总统制政府，确实加剧了该国16个地区中其他地区相对于国家首都地区/大都会马尼拉的不发达。
如果棉兰老岛脱离这个国家，尽管它拥有自然资源，但它将仍然贫穷，因为同样的政治暴君（像其他地区一样）将成为最高统治者。
In such eventuality, a Phil ( minus mindana) ruled by the Marcos politicsl dynasty & an independent new state mindabao ruled by the Duterte political dynasty.
Which outcome? It depends where the Phil military goes consistent with western influence.
杜特尔特呼吁的棉兰老岛分裂只会使杜特尔特政治王朝和已经掌权的盟友受益。
在这种情况下，一个由马科斯政治王朝统治的菲律宾（减去棉兰老岛）& 一个由杜特尔特政治王朝代统治的独立的新国家棉兰老岛。
哪种结果？这取决于菲律宾军队与西方势力的一致性。