未来几十年美国如何避免生活水平下降？-网帖翻译-龙腾网

Elliott J. Schuchardt
It is unlikely that the United States will be able to avoid a significant decline in its standard of living, in the next ten years.

美国很可能在未来十年内无法避免生活水平的显著下降。

The United States must first close its annual trade deficit, of almost $1 trillion per year. This is equal to about $3,000 per year for every person living in the United States.

美国首先必须消除每年近1万亿美元的贸易逆差。这相当于每个居住在美国的人每年约3000美元。

After that, the United States must deal with the interest on $33 trillion of debt. This number is growing quickly, due to the recent increase in interest rates in the United States. A large percentage of federal revenues is now devoted to simply paying interest on the national debt. In fact, the United States now spends MORE on interest on the debt, than national defense.

之后，美国必须应对33万亿美元的债务利息。由于美国最近利率上升，这一数字正在迅速增长。目前，美国相当大比例的联邦收入仅用于支付国债利息。事实上，美国现在对国债利息的支出超过了国防支出。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

The only way to reverse these numbers is to DEVALUE the dollar. Duation will make imports to the United States more expensive. It will also subsidize American exports, by making them cheaper to persons living overseas. It is the classic - and generally only - solution for dealing with a trade deficit.

扭转这些数字的唯一方法是贬值美元。贬值将使进口到美国的商品变得更加昂贵。它还将通过降低海外居民购买美国出口商品的价格来补贴美国的出口商品。这是处理贸易逆差的经典方法，也是通常唯一的方法。

Duation will be necessary because the rest of the world will no longer accept U.S. dollars, in the near future. The United States will be forced to trade hard assets, to get goods in the future.

贬值将是必要的，因为在不久的将来，世界其他地区将不再接受美元。美国将被迫用实物资产来换取未来的商品。

Duation can be done gradually or in a sudden drop. I estimate that a 33% duation will be the MINIMUM amount to necessary deal with America’s overpriced currency.

贬值可以逐步进行，也可以突然下跌。我估计，贬值33%将是必需的最低金额，以应对美国过高的货币价值。

A 33% drop in the value of the dollar will increase the price of gasoline in the United States by 1.5 times, or to about $5 a gallon. A 50% percent drop in the value of the dollar will double prices of everything in the United States — roughly overnight. That will increase gasoline to about $7 per gallon in the United States. In Los Angeles, gasoline would increase from its current price of $5 per gallon to about $10 per gallon.

美元价值下跌33%将使美国汽油价格增加1.5倍，约为每加仑5美元。美元价值下跌50%将使美国所有商品价格翻倍，几乎是一夜之间。这将使美国汽油价格增加到每加仑约7美元。在洛杉矶，汽油价格将从目前的每加仑5美元增加到每加仑约10美元。

As you can see, Americans will have to tighten their belts simply to get by in the next decade. That is the best possible scenario.

正如你所看到的，美国人在未来十年里将不得不勒紧裤腰带才能勉强维持生计。这还可能是最好的情况。

The more likely scenario is a hard landing, involving violence and chaos in the United States.

更有可能的情况是美国出现硬着陆，导致暴力和混乱。

My fellow Americans — your government, media, military and economists have failed you. Think for yourselves. Time is running out.

我的美国同胞们——你们的政府、媒体、军队和经济学家已经辜负了你们。自己思考吧。时间不多了。

Aaron Bianco
I don’t like the other answers, as they often don’t actually answer the question, often more focused on pointing out why the decline is likely.

我不喜欢其他答案，因为它们大多相当于没有回答问题，而更多地集中在指出为什么下降是可能的。

So the answer on how to avoid (only some of which is obvious, like #1)….

因此，关于如何避免（其中只有一些是显而易见的，比如#1）……

Become more efficient/productive: get more outputs for the same inputs

提高效率/生产力：用同样的投入获得更多产出
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

Fix the food system: move away from ultra-processed and processed foods (i.e. where sugar has been added (to improve taste) and fiber removed to provide long shelf life (and reduced cost) which reduces taste that is then compensated with adding sugar. The cost of fresh/nutritious needs to go down (see #5). The food system is contributing to everything from diabetes to metabolic syndrome, reducing workers/citizens efficiency/productivity and their ability to contribute.

修复食品系统：摆脱超加工和加工食品（即添加了糖（以改善口味）并去除纤维以提供长期保质期（和降低成本），这降低了口味，然后通过添加糖来补偿。新鲜/有营养食品的成本需要降低（见#5）。食品系统正在导致从糖尿病到代谢综合征的一切问题，并降低了工人/公民的效率/生产力和他们的贡献能力。

Fix both the medical system AND the health system: When treatments are profitable and curing is not, the incentives are inverted and consequences are negative for other sectors of the economy. Food and health are related, and combining the health system and the food system is what is presently happening at the edges of innovation at present. (I find the Israeli health system of 3 competing companies to be better than the European model, as do many Europeans.)

修复医疗系统和健康系统：当治疗有利可图而治愈无利可图时，激励机制被颠倒，对经济的其他部门造成了负面影响。食品和健康是相关的，目前正在尝试的好的创新是将健康系统和食品系统结合起来（我发现以色列的三家竞争公司的健康系统比欧洲模式更好，许多欧洲人也这样认为）。

Fix the schools system so that the “human capital” of the country goes up. (Unlikely to happen since the fixes disrupt established bureaucracies and entrenched interests.)

修复学校系统，使国家的“人力资本”提高。（这不太可能发生，因为这些修复会破坏已经建立的官僚体系和根深蒂固的利益）

Innovate: Innovation increases productivity while reducing costs.

创新：创新提高了生产力，同时降低了成本。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

Restructure certain industries: Some industries have matured to the point that the barriers to entry are enormous, where niches have been created such that rents (i.e. payments) can be extracted for things that don’t actually contribute. Alas, this implies new regulations to change the competitive landscape, and many of the regulations are based on ideological grounds which only make the situation worse. Sometimes these rent seekers can be unxs, other times they can be certain professional classes, but generally a “rent” is a fee that could be eliminated if the process was streamlined, but there exists an incentive to complicate processes to increase ones income whether it is a person or a corporation.

重组某些行业：一些行业已经发展到了进入壁垒巨大的程度，已经创造了巨大的利益割据，可以从实际上没有贡献的事物中提取租金（即支付）。遗憾的是，这意味着需要新的法规来改变竞争格局，而许多法规是基于意识形态的基础上制定的，这只会使情况变得更糟。有时这些寻租者可能是工会，有时可能是某些专业阶层，但通常“租金”是一种费用，如果流程得到简化，就可以被消除，但存在着一种激励，即使是个人或公司也会复杂化流程以增加收入。

CONCLUSION:
People are opposing certain things, like using ChatGPT and AI that would increase productivity while restructuring certain industries. For example, paying actors more upfront with no residuals; what artisan who makes a cup gets paid again every time that cup is used? Sure, the structure means less up front costs for the film maker, but the studios have built a large marketing mechanism that extracts “rents” (i.e. payments) such that films never “show a profit.” Restructuring industries like these will be necessary to have greater productivity and efficiency.

结论：
人们反对某些事情，比如使用ChatGPT和AI来提高生产力，同时重组某些行业。例如，提前支付演员而不给予后续分成报酬；制作杯子的工匠每次使用杯子都会再次得到报酬吗？当然，这种结构意味着电影制片人的前期成本较低，但制片厂已经建立了一个大型的营销机制，从中提取“租金”（即支付），以至于电影从来没有“盈利”。重组这些行业将是必要的，以获得更大的生产力和效率。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

David Andresen
By getting back to sound fiscal policies and once and for all denounce Reaganomics (trickle down). Start to control the DoD budget.

通过恢复健全的财政政策，并彻底谴责里根经济学（滴灌理论）。开始控制国防部预算。

Simplify the tax code, and maybe restore the tax systems from the 1950–80’s.

简化税法，可能的话恢复20世纪50-80年代的税收体系。

Bring manufacturing back to the US.

将制造业带回美国。

Bring R&D back for new technologies, (As Biden is doing)

为新技术重新引入研发（正如拜登所做的那样）

Introduce universal healthcare.

推行全民医保。

Stop catering to the billionaire class.

停止迎合亿万富翁阶级。

Get Big money out of politics.

让政治摆脱大资本的影响。

Jim Robert
Change the Republican party. They tend to stand in the way of any meaningful attempt to stop the widening wealth gap and help middle class and poor people. They mostly do this because of outdated ideology about “fairness” and a pioneer work ethic. They would rather “punch the poor” than help everyone including themselves. They see the federal government as an enemy to be strangled and kept small, rather than as a tool for promoting prosperity and the public good. They think their taxes are being “wasted” on “entitlements” not even understanding that every cent the government spends flows right back to businesses and into their paycheck.

改变共和党。他们倾向于阻碍任何有意义的尝试来阻止贫富差距的扩大，并帮助中产阶级和贫困人口。他们大多是因为过时的“公平”意识和先驱的职业道德而这样做。他们宁愿“打击穷人”也不愿意帮助每个人，包括他们自己。他们把联邦政府视为一个要被扼杀和保持在弱小等级的敌人，而不是一个促进繁荣和公共利益的工具。他们认为他们的税款被“浪费”在“福利”上，甚至不理解政府每花出去的一分钱都会直接流回到企业和他们的薪水中。

So if the Republican party could be a real balance to the Democratic party, rather than a roadblock to all progress, it would help working Americans greatly.

因此，如果共和党能成为民主党的真正平衡，而不是所有进步的绊脚石，它将极大地帮助美国工人。