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Aya Shawn
master in Computer Science, National University of SingaporeSep 8
This is an interesting business phenomenon.

这是一个有趣的商业现象。

1. China’s industrial transfer (active transfer)
After 30 years of rapid development, China's society has entered the level of a middle-to-high-income country.
In 2022, Chinese people will buy 25 million cars, and per capita GDP will reach US$12,000.
In this case, if you want a Chinese to turn a screw on the production line, or sew a shirt, their monthly salary requirements are often more than $1,000.
But, it's only $300 for a Vietnamese or a Bangladeshi to do the same thing. What do you think the Chinese company will do?
Yes, as early as a few years ago, Chinese enterprises have already begun to transfer abroad. The first thing to be transferred is clothing, toys, shoes and other industries with a high proportion of labor.

1.中国产业转移（主动转移）
经过30年的快速发展，中国社会已进入中高收入国家水平。
2022年，中国人购买了2500万辆汽车，人均GDP超过了1.2万美元。
在这种情况下，如果你想让一个中国人在生产线上拧螺丝，或者缝一件衬衫，他们的月薪要求往往是超过1,000 美元。
但是，越南人或孟加拉国人做同样的事情只需少于300美元。您认为中国企业应该怎么办？
是的，早在几年前，中国企业就已经开始向海外转移。最先转移的是服装、玩具、鞋业等劳动力比例较高的行业。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Just because an enterprise or factory has moved to Vietnam does not mean that it has no connection with China. For the production of clothes, toys, shoes, household appliances. They need upstream support. Equipment, computers, software, buttons, batteries, switches, wiring, paint, circuit boards, everything.
from where? Can only be imported from China.
Therefore, the transfer of industries is accompanied by a sharp increase in China's exports to target countries.

一家企业或工厂搬到越南并不意味着它与中国再也没有联系。为了生产衣服、玩具、鞋、小家电，他们需要上游支持。设备、计算机、软件、按钮、电池、开关、电线、油漆、电路板，一切关键的零部件。
从哪里来？只能从中国进口。
因此，产业转移伴随着中国对目标国出口的大幅增长。

2. Decoupling of the United States and the European unx (passive transfer)
Since Trump launched the trade war, the United States and the European unx have begun to "decouple" from China. They said "Hey! Let's not do business with China, don't buy Chinese stuff, okay?" In order to force importers and consumers, they imposed too high tariffs and created a sanction list with only one purpose, to prevent the sale of Chinese goods.
However, what will happen to people’s lives without Chinese products?

2、美国与欧盟对华脱钩（被动转移）
自特朗普发动贸易战以来，美国与欧盟开始玩和中国“脱钩”和“去风险”。他们说：“嘿！我们不要和中国做生意，不要买中国的东西，好吗？”为了迫使进口商和消费者服从，他们向中国商品征收过高的关税，并制定了制裁清单，目的只有一个，就是阻止中国商品的进口和销售。
然而，如果没有中国产品，这些国家的居民生活将会怎样？

So they need to find a replacement. Some countries with large populations and low wages are the best choices: Mexico, Vietnam for example. They signed trade deals, lowered tariffs for these countries, and hoped they would replace China. It's a pretty naive idea: New cheap suppliers replace old ones, with nothing to lose.

所以他们需要寻找替代者。一些人口多、工资低的国家是最好的选择：例如墨西哥、越南。他们签署了贸易协议，降低了这些国家的关税，并希望他们能够取代中国。这是一个相当天真的想法：新的廉价供应商取代旧供应商，他们在政治和经济上打击了中国，同时也没有什么可损失的。

However, businessmen in Vietnam and Mexico soon discovered that they simply could not make these items (or it was more expensive to make them than in China). The easier way is to import from China, label it with Mexican or Vietnamese labels, and sell it to Americans or Europeans.
Another strange line appeared: China exported semi-finished or finished products, and Vietnam and Mexico completed the final assembly and outer packaging.
Finally exported to America and Europe.

然而，越南和墨西哥的商人很快发现他们根本无法制造这些物品（或者制造它们比在中国更昂贵）。更简单的方法是从中国进口，简单装配，然后贴上墨西哥或越南标签，最后卖给美国人或欧洲人。
另一条奇怪的线路出现了：中国出口半成品或成品，越南和墨西哥完成最后的组装和外包装。
最后出口到美国和欧洲。

3. Everyone wins The Chinese found that their exports were not reduced.
From January to July 2023, China's total exports increased by 3.1%.
Vietnam and Mexico saw a massive increase in their exports and imports, and people made more money.
Politicians in the United States and the European unx are finding that trade decoupling from China is paying off. Imports from China fell.
All three parties are very happy.
In this interesting story, there is no loser.

3、大家都是赢家 中国人发现他们的出口并没有减少。
2023年1月至7月，中国出口总额增长3.1%。
越南和墨西哥的进出口大幅增长，人们赚了更多的钱。
美国和欧盟的政客发现与中国的贸易脱钩正在取得成效，来自中国的进口确实下降了一些。
三方都很高兴。
在这个有趣的故事中，似乎没有失败者。