话题讨论：乌克兰总司令扎卢日内与总统泽连斯基闹内讧，并向美国狮子大开口，要求提供1700万枚炮弹，3500-4000亿美元的资产和人员--part1
UA POV: Zaluhzny complained to Pentagon chief about the President’s Office and asked for 17 million shells - Pravda
译文简介
扎卢日内向五角大楼负责人抱怨本国总统办公室，并要求提供1700万枚炮弹
正文翻译
原标题：扎卢日内向五角大楼负责人抱怨本国总统办公室，并要求提供1700万枚炮弹——《真理报》
Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi asked Pentagon chief for 17 million rounds of ammunition
扎卢日内总司令要求五角大楼提供1700万发弹药。
扎卢日内总司令要求五角大楼提供1700万发弹药。
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was informed during a visit to Kyiv that Ukraine needed 17 million rounds of ammunition and that US$350-400 billion worth of assets and personnel would be required to liberate the country.
美国国防部长劳埃德·奥斯汀在访问基辅期间被告知，乌克兰需要1700万发弹药，而且解放这个国家需要价值3500-4000亿美元的资产和人员。
美国国防部长劳埃德·奥斯汀在访问基辅期间被告知，乌克兰需要1700万发弹药，而且解放这个国家需要价值3500-4000亿美元的资产和人员。
Source: War vs politics: what’s really going on between Zelenskyy and Zaluzhnyi?, an article by Ukrainska Pravda
来源：“战争与政治：泽连斯基和扎卢日内之间到底发生了什么?”乌克兰真理报的一篇文章
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
来源：“战争与政治：泽连斯基和扎卢日内之间到底发生了什么?”乌克兰真理报的一篇文章
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Quote: "According to Ukrainska Pravda, the General Staff’s calculations show that achieving the president’s obxtive of liberating the entire territory of Ukraine will require US$350-400 billion worth of assets and personnel."
引用:“根据《乌克兰真理报》，总参谋部的计算表明，要实现总统解放乌克兰全境的目标，将需要价值3500-4000亿美元的资产和人员。”
引用:“根据《乌克兰真理报》，总参谋部的计算表明，要实现总统解放乌克兰全境的目标，将需要价值3500-4000亿美元的资产和人员。”
Details: The General Staff shared some planning ideas with Austin during his visit to Kyiv in November.
细节：总参谋部在奥斯丁11月访问基辅期间与他分享了一些规划想法。
细节：总参谋部在奥斯丁11月访问基辅期间与他分享了一些规划想法。
Quote from a senior Defence Forces official: "Austin was told 17 million rounds of ammunition were needed. He was stunned, to put it mildly, because you wouldn’t be able to collect that many rounds in the whole world."
引用一位高级国防官员的话:“奥斯汀被告知需要1700万发弹药。说得委婉点，他惊呆了，因为全世界都不可能收集到那么多弹药。”
引用一位高级国防官员的话:“奥斯汀被告知需要1700万发弹药。说得委婉点，他惊呆了，因为全世界都不可能收集到那么多弹药。”
In addition, according to a source, Austin also said Zaluzhnyi had complained privately to American generals about interference from the President’s Office (this news was initially worded: "Austin also said Zaluzhnyi had complained to him about interference from the President’s Office"): "Austin told us privately that Zaluzhnyi was always complaining to his generals about the President’s Office and how it obstructed him. Well, obviously the president learned about those conversations too. And that isn’t conducive to trust."
此外，据消息来源说，奥斯汀还说扎卢日内曾私下向美国将军抱怨该国总统办公室的干涉(这个消息最初的表述是:“奥斯汀还说扎卢日内曾向他抱怨总统办公室的干涉”):“奥斯汀私下告诉我们，扎卢日内总是向他的将军抱怨总统办公室如何妨碍他。显然，总统也知道了这些谈话。而这不利于建立信任。”
此外，据消息来源说，奥斯汀还说扎卢日内曾私下向美国将军抱怨该国总统办公室的干涉(这个消息最初的表述是:“奥斯汀还说扎卢日内曾向他抱怨总统办公室的干涉”):“奥斯汀私下告诉我们，扎卢日内总是向他的将军抱怨总统办公室如何妨碍他。显然，总统也知道了这些谈话。而这不利于建立信任。”
However, the President’s Office is inclined to believe that Zaluzhnyi’s dismissal would facilitate his political career.
然而，总统办公室倾向于认为，解雇扎卢日内将有利于他的政治生涯。
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然而，总统办公室倾向于认为，解雇扎卢日内将有利于他的政治生涯。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Ukrainska Pravda sources from Zelenskyy’s inner circle say Bankova Street (the President’s Office) is well aware of this, so a significant part of the president’s team is strongly opposed to the current Commander-in-Chief stepping down.
《乌克兰真理报》来自泽连斯基核心圈子的消息称，总统办公室非常清楚这一点，因此总统团队中有相当一部分人强烈反对现任总司令下台。
《乌克兰真理报》来自泽连斯基核心圈子的消息称，总统办公室非常清楚这一点，因此总统团队中有相当一部分人强烈反对现任总司令下台。
Background:
背景：
背景：
Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, said in an interview that the situation at the front has reached a stalemate, where neither side can advance because they are technologically equipped at the same level, and the war is moving to the stage of positional fighting.
乌克兰武装部队总司令瓦莱里·扎卢日内在接受采访时表示，前线的局势已经陷入僵局，双方都无法前进，因为他们的技术装备处于同一水平，战争正在进入阵地战阶段。
乌克兰武装部队总司令瓦莱里·扎卢日内在接受采访时表示，前线的局势已经陷入僵局，双方都无法前进，因为他们的技术装备处于同一水平，战争正在进入阵地战阶段。
President Zelenskyy has said he does not think the situation on the front in Ukraine is a stalemate and Ukraine will not negotiate with Russia.
泽连斯基总统表示，他认为乌克兰前线的局势不会陷入僵局，乌克兰不会与俄罗斯谈判。
泽连斯基总统表示，他认为乌克兰前线的局势不会陷入僵局，乌克兰不会与俄罗斯谈判。
Zelenskyy told British tabloid The Sun on 21 November that military personnel who are going to enter politics should not "deal with war".
泽连斯基在11月21日接受英国小报《太阳报》采访时表示，打算从政的军人不应该“处理战争”。
泽连斯基在11月21日接受英国小报《太阳报》采访时表示，打算从政的军人不应该“处理战争”。
On 29 November, The Economist wrote that parallel to the grim reality of trench warfare, the "political battlefield" in Kyiv is becoming more and more tense. President Zelenskyy sees a competitor in Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi and the political threat is harming Ukraine.
11月29日，《经济学人》写道，与堑壕战的残酷现实相对应，基辅的“政治战场”正变得越来越紧张。泽连斯基总统将总司令瓦莱里·扎卢日内视为竞争对手，这种政治威胁正在伤害乌克兰。
11月29日，《经济学人》写道，与堑壕战的残酷现实相对应，基辅的“政治战场”正变得越来越紧张。泽连斯基总统将总司令瓦莱里·扎卢日内视为竞争对手，这种政治威胁正在伤害乌克兰。
The Economist wrote that it had obtained access to an internal poll in Ukraine, and the results suggest that "Zelenskyy risks losing the presidential election if he ever comes face-to-face with his commander-in-chief."
《经济学人》写道，它获得了乌克兰的一项内部民意调查，结果表明，“如果泽连斯基与他的总司令对决，他可能会在总统选举中失败。”
《经济学人》写道，它获得了乌克兰的一项内部民意调查，结果表明，“如果泽连斯基与他的总司令对决，他可能会在总统选举中失败。”
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The Battle Between Zelensky and Zaluhzny is now in full swing
泽连斯基和扎卢日内之间的战斗正进行的如火如荼。
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此外，当他们做对了的时候，这一点也不会被提及，但是一些Telegram的消息来源应该得到掌声——他们准确地预测和说出了这场迷你冲突中的一切。
这给我留下了深刻的印象。下次我读到无处不在的“大新闻”时，如果是我们总统办公室的线人说的……，也许我就不会那么怀疑了。
Zelensky is going to soon launch a counteroffensive on zalunzhy soon. Sssshhhh
泽连斯基很快就要对扎卢日内发动反攻了。嘻嘻嘻。
It's already undergoing, and with more success than the great autumn one.
已经在进行了，而且比秋天的那次更成功。
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Lloyd Austin, Head of the Pentagon, was informed during his visit that Ukraine requires 17 million shells and that US$350-400 billion worth of force and resources will be essential to liberate the country.
五角大楼首脑劳埃德·奥斯汀在访问期间被告知，乌克兰需要1700万枚炮弹，解放这个国家需要价值3500 -4000亿美元的武力和资源。
祝你好运，你能得到这两个数字的10%就很幸运了。
Quote: "Austin was told about the need for 17 million shells. He, to put it mildly, was stunned, because you wouldn’t be able to collect so many shells all over the world.
引文:“奥斯汀被告知需要1700万枚炮弹。委婉地说，他惊呆了，因为全世界都不可能收集到这么多的弹药。
哦，这就是不久前访问乌克兰的那个劳埃德·奥斯汀，对吧? 我猜他们没告诉他这个小问题。
No that was Beetlejuice.
不，那个是Beetle juice（《阴间大法师》）。
$400 billion?! Congress is deadlocked trying to pass a $100 billion package, of which only a portion is for Ukraine.
4000亿美元? ! 国会在试图通过一项1000亿美元的一揽子计划时都陷入僵局，而且其中只有一部分是给乌克兰的。
$400 billion? Why do they need $200 billion? $100 billion is a lot of money and we don't have the budget for it. Here is $10b, split it with Israel.
“4000亿美元? ”
“他们为什么需要2000亿美元? ”
“1000亿美元是一大笔钱，我们没有足够的预算。”
“这是100亿美元，跟以色列分一分。”
To me as a complete armchair general even the quoted 400 billion $ figure feels like it's severely lowballing how much resources UA would need to retake all occupied territory, especially that which was lost in 2014. I could maybe buy it if Russia was still fighting as unseriously as they were pre-Sept 2022, but with them constantly growing and improving their military (not to mention constantly fortifying the land they hold and the potential for further mobilization if things start getting out of hand) it's very hard to believe that 400 bil $ (comparing it to the 120 or so billion provided so far) would be enough at this point.
对我一个键盘侠而言，即使是所说4000亿美元那个数字，也严重低估了乌克兰重新占领所有被占领领土所需的资源，尤其是2014年失去的领土。如果俄罗斯仍然像2022年9月之前那样不认真地战斗，我可能会同意，但是随着他们不断发展，并改善他们的军事力量(更不用说不断加强他们所占据的土地，以及如果事情开始失控时进一步动员的潜力)，目前很难相信4000亿美元(与目前提供的1200亿美元相比)就足够了。
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Really depends on the time frx. But it doesn't take that much to tip the scale. We can see how areas of the front hold for a long time, but some increase in local pressure causes an advance. Basically trippling the military aid in a short time frx would result in a complete unbalance. In addition, reaching a strength superiority somewhere often results in taking fewer losses, so any superiority not only gives more strength in that sector, but also preserves more strength to use in other sectors.
这个数字真的取决于哪段时间。但并不需要那么多就能扭转局面。我们可以看到交锋地区长时间维持不变，但是局部压力的增加导致了前进。在短时间内将军事援助基本上增加两倍，将导致完全的不平衡。此外，在某个地区达到实力优势往往会导致损失减少，所以任何优势不仅在该地区赋予了更多的实力，而且还保留了更多的实力，可以用于其他地区。
Many months are involved between passing a aid bill and all of pledged things reaching the front even years. EU still can't fulfill their ammo pledge and the year is about to end
从通过一项援助法案到所有承诺的东西到达前线，中间需要几个月甚至几年的时间。欧盟仍然不能履行他们的弹药承诺，而今年就要结束了。
The EU ammo pledge is from spring 2023 till spring 2024, but yeah, they'll likely still miss the target.
欧盟的弹药承诺从2023年春季到2024年春季，但是，是的，他们可能仍然无法实现这个目标。
trippling the military aid in a short time frx would result in a complete unbalance.
"在短时间内将军事援助增加两倍将导致完全不平衡。"
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如果我们谈论的是更多相同类型的援助，我真的不清楚。如果以目前的技术支持防御，那么收益递减效应可能很大。可能最终给防御一方造成一个全是靶子的环境，并遭受巨大损失。
Yup. It's surprising that people don't understand that any military help, even in the tens of billions of modern weapons, could lead to Russia's collapse. That's probably why it's being throttled. Russia's complete loss isn't really a goal for the west.
是的。令人惊讶的是，人们不明白，任何军事援助，即使是数百亿的现代武器，都可能导致俄罗斯的崩溃。这可能就是西方限制援助的原因。俄罗斯的彻底失败并不是西方的真正目标。
modern weapons could lead to Russia's collapse
“现代武器可能导致俄罗斯的崩溃”
看起来这是西方最新形式的犟嘴。“如果西方向乌克兰提供大量现代武器，他们就能战胜这个亚洲的俄罗斯部落!”
美国人还能拿出什么? 艾布拉姆斯? 你肯定是在开玩笑，看看豹豹吧。F16战斗机? 你肯定又在开玩笑。F35? 这可能会很有趣，但在整个计划中仍然无足轻重。1000万枚炮弹可能会有所不同，但西方没有，而且短期内也不会有。
This. "The West is just holding back" is the new cope. The reality is the West, even more so when you don't exclude the US can't compete with Russia. North Korea and Iran by themselves could unironically kick the Eu's butt to kingdom come
这一点。“西方只是收着手”是一种新的犟嘴。现实是，如果不算美国，西方就无法与俄罗斯竞争。毫无讽刺意味的是，朝鲜和伊朗自己就能把欧盟踢得屁滚尿流。
It's so damn silly to read
这些话太蠢了。
（评论被管理员删除）
It wouldn't, but you are correct about it was never a welcomed prospects Russia might collapse.
不会的，但你是对的，俄罗斯可能崩溃的前景从来都不受欢迎。