印度是否正在走向中等收入陷阱？
Is India heading towards a middle income trap?
译文简介
我在这里的一篇帖子上看到一条评论，说印度有可能陷入“中等收入陷阱”
正文翻译
Is India heading towards a middle income trap?
印度是否正在走向中等收入陷阱？
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There seems to be indicators pointing both ways. On one hand, we have a rapidly ballooning consumer culture with a young population with discretionary income, and with EMIs for various products which helps people to buy stuff they desire. India is considered an emerging market by many corporations. We have a huge population which acts as both a consumer and a labor force. All good signs of a strong economy and potential to become a more developed or industrialized country.
On the other hand, many manufacturing industries which were anticipated to move to India after leaving China instead seem to be setting up in other South East Asian countries instead. There is still brain drain with top talent leaving for greener pastures, climate change is alleged to cause massive disruptions in the near future, and only a few tier-1 cities bearing the brunt of a population migrating into urban areas. From what I have read, having an innovative and diverse industrial economy is necessary to avoid the middle-income trap. We have great talent in this country but due to various factors like brain drain, no funding and low ease of doing business, innovation is not growing at an optimal pace.
I am no economist and this is simply what I have gleaned from what I have read. So, what do you guys think of this?
我在这里的一篇帖子上看到一条评论，说印度有可能陷入“中等收入陷阱”。遗憾的是，我找不到这篇文章或评论了，无法向他们询问更多相关信息。
似乎有一些指标指向两个方向。一方面，我们有迅速膨胀的消费文化，有可自由支配收入的年轻人口，有各种产品的 EMI，这有助于人们购买他们想要的东西。印度被许多公司视为新兴市场。印度人口众多，既是消费者又是劳动力。这些都是经济强劲的良好迹象，也是印度成为更发达或工业化国家的潜力所在。
另一方面，许多原本预计离开中国后会转移到印度的制造业，似乎都转而在其他东南亚国家落户。人才外流现象依然存在，顶尖人才纷纷前往更广阔的天地，气候变化据称将在不久的将来造成大规模破坏，只有少数一线城市能承受人口向城市地区迁移的影响。据我所知，要避免陷入中等收入陷阱，就必须拥有创新和多元化的工业经济。我们国家人才济济，但由于人才流失、缺乏资金和经商便利性低等各种因素，创新的发展速度并不理想。
我不是经济学家，这只是我从阅读中总结出来的。你们对此有何看法？
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Most of our people are poor or the poorest you will ever find ,visit some of our villages if you are in a metro or a city you have no idea how poor our people are. Please don’t read some stupid posts on social media or mainstream media .everyone is chest thumping in media it’s all fluff there..
我们大多数人都很穷，或者是你所见过的最穷的人，如果你身处大都市或城市，你根本不知道我们的人民有多穷。请不要在社交媒体或主流媒体上阅读一些愚蠢的帖子，每个人都在媒体上表现得信心爆棚，但都是些废话。
The algorithms in social media makes it impossible to. It's designed to curate content for you and results in echo chambers to show you the world as you want.
社交媒体的算法让我们无法做到这一点。它旨在为你策划内容，形成回声室，向你展示你想要的世界。
Could not agree more we should encourage our family and friends to use brains more than rely on algorithms I am shocked at how my friends and family falls for the stupidity that these algorithms produce .
再同意不过，我们应该鼓励我们的家人和朋友更多地使用大脑而不是依赖算法，我对我的朋友和家人如何陷入这些算法产生的愚蠢感到震惊。
Let us first reach middle income country status then we can worry about middle income trap lol. As of now we are still a low middle income country bunched with the likes of Pakistan, Bangladesh, Kenya etc.
让我们先达到中等收入国家的地位，然后再担心中等收入陷阱吧哈哈。到目前为止，我们仍然是一个中低收入国家，与巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、肯尼亚等国并列。
Came here to say exactly this. Some of our states are also on par with Sub Saharan and war ravaged African countries
点进来就是想说这个。我们的一些邦也与撒哈拉以南和饱受战争蹂躏的非洲国家不相上下
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
It's not a sin to be in poverty, but half of the population here has an ego complex that they're living in a "superpower". That for me, is personally much more egregious.
I met many people from Africa and ME during my stays overseas and all of them openly talked about the problems that existed in their countries. Desi unkills overseas with American and EU passport get so triggered even if you lay out a couple of basic facts about the situation back home.
贫穷并不是罪过，但这里一半的人口有一种自负心态，认为他们生活在“超级大国”中。对我个人而言，这实在令人震惊。
我在海外期间遇到了很多来自非洲和中东的人，他们都会公开谈论自己国家存在的问题。但是即使你列出了有关国内情况的一些基本事实，持美国和欧盟护照的在海外的印度裔也会暴跳如雷。
The cheap internet was a huge mistake.
廉价的互联网是一个巨大的错误。
Without cheap Internet us Indian people would've hid the problems even better. Just play a random YT street food video from India to get a sampling of the noise pollution, disorder, filth, lack of basic infra, etc. Somebody's taking notice.
如果没有廉价的互联网，我们印度人会把问题隐藏得更深。只要在 YT 上随便播放一段印度的街头美食视频，就能了解印度的噪音污染、混乱、肮脏、缺乏基本基础设施等问题。已经有人注意到了。
Lol, mass delusion. India ain't even a regional power. If nukes make a country super power, then Pakistan is a superpower too.
哈哈，群体幻觉。印度连地区大国都算不上。如果核武器能让一个国家成为超级大国，那么巴基斯坦也是超级大国了。
It wasn't like that before 2014
2014年之前可不是这样的
Puducherry
I don't know where you saw this. I admit our problems, many do. The people who boast are a minority.
我不知道你是在哪里看到的这些评论。我承认我们的问题，很多人都是如此。夸口的人毕竟是少数。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Perhaps it is because you live in Puducherry. People in South are more realistic, I guess. The mid and Northern part of the country do indeed boast all the time.
也许是因为你住在本地治里。我觉得南方人比较现实。我们中部和北部地区的人确实一直在夸夸其谈。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
India is technically "lower middle income" but World Bank standards, so in some ways its already reached Middle Income status. So India is definitely out of the "dysfunctional basket case" league of nations, lol. If India can get to $4,000 GDP per capita, it'll be "upper middle income". $12,000 GDP per capita is what is necessary to break into the lowest ranks of high income. India is currently $2,200.
I think it highly probably India will get to high middle income. Because of its size though, I'm suspicious that it'll cleanly make it into high income any time soon. Instead, what we'll likely see is pockets of India that are high income and high tech with other pockets being stuck in lower middle income status that are left behind. In fact, this has already happened in some ways. So for instance, Bangalore has a GDP per capita of $25,000, 10x higher than the national average. So I'd expect more of these high income pockets in the future while other parts of the nation remain stagnant.
从技术上讲，印度属于“中低收入国家”，但按照世界银行的标准，在某些方面它已经达到了中等收入国家的地位。所以印度肯定已经脱离了“功能失调国际联盟”，哈哈。如果印度的人均GDP能够达到4000美元，那就是“中上收入”了。人均GDP达到12000美元是跻身最低高收入行列的必要条件。印度目前为 2200 美元。
我认为印度很有可能进入高中等收入国家。但由于我们的规模，我不看好能干净利落地成为高收入国家。相反，我们可能会看到印度的一些地区成为高收入和高科技地区，而其他地区则陷入中低收入状态，被抛在后面。事实上，这在某些方面已经发生了。例如，班加罗尔的人均 GDP 为 25000 美元，比全国平均水平高出 10 倍。因此，我预计未来会有更多的高收入群体出现，而其他地区仍处于停滞状态。
I doubt bengalore is at 25,000$. Pockets of it may be.
And upper middle income level isn't really that bad. People in Indonesia, Thailand have an ok life, not too bad. If we can reach that level by 2030 I'll be content.
我对班加罗尔的人均有 25000 美元表示怀疑。可能只是这个数字的一小部分。
中上收入水平其实并没有那么糟糕。印度尼西亚、泰国人民的生活还不错，不算太糟糕。如果我们能在 2030 年达到这个水平，我就很满足了。
Middle income trap..bruh we are a low income country and parts of UP and Bihar are Sub-Saharan Africa
中等收入陷阱...噗，我们是一个低收入国家，北方邦和比哈尔邦的部分地区和撒哈拉以南非洲没什么两样
Our consumerism is nowhere there. We’re still a poor nation per capita.
什么消费主义，根本不存在。按人均计算，我们仍然是一个贫穷国家。
We are not even middle income yet and this bhaisaab is worried about middle income trap
我们还不是中等收入，这位老哥就开始担心中等收入陷阱了
Our country should be happy if it can indeed get into the middle income trap. We are one of the poorest countries in the world.
如果我们的国家确实能够迈入中等收入陷阱，那我们应该感到高兴。我们是世界上最贫穷的国家之一。
Middle income trap? We have more poverty than Sub-Saharan Africa, less rank in HDI than places like Venezuela, El Salvador, Iraq, Iran, Tajikistan. With all these communal tensions, lack of investment in infrastructure, declining economy, I doubt that we'd ever even get out of the current situation we're in.
中等收入陷阱？我们的贫困程度高于撒哈拉以南非洲地区，人类发展指数排名低于委内瑞拉、萨尔瓦多、伊拉克、伊朗、塔吉克斯坦等地。由于所有这些社区紧张局势、基础设施投资不足、经济衰退，我甚至怀疑我们能否摆脱目前的困境。
An avg Indian will think that s/he is living as middle class watching all those YouTube videos and short form content but they all are not middle class. If your income is between 9lpa and 30lpa then you are middle class which is only 2-5% of population.
一个普通的印度人看了那些 YouTube 视频和短视频内容，会以为自己是中产阶级，但其实他们都不是中产阶级。如果你的收入在 9lpa 到 30lpa 之间，那么你就是中产阶级，而中产阶级只占人口的 2-5%。
（注：lpa是印度薪资的一种计算方式）
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Middle-income trap happens when your population grows old before making it to developed status. As long as you maintain a 1.9-2.1 fertility rate you will never fall into a middle-income trap, because you always have another shot at industrialization or another way of getting rich.
Malaysia is already a developed nation. Turkey is almost a developed country, and its fertility rate is 1.9.
Countries like Lebanon or Thailand are in the middle-income trap.
中等收入陷阱是指人口在进入发达国家行列之前就已经老去。只要保持 1.9-2.1 的生育率，你就永远不会陷入中等收入陷阱，因为你总是有机会实现工业化或以其他方式致富。
马来西亚已经是一个发达国家。土耳其几乎是一个发达国家，其生育率为 1.9。
像黎巴嫩或泰国这样的国家正处于中等收入陷阱之中。
Wow, you explained it very well.
So China is destined to be middle income country
哇，你解释得真好。
所以中国注定只能是中等收入国家喽？
China is already a middle income country and moving towards becoming a developed country. They are no longer the cheapest destination but they are still the cheapest when it comes to manufacturing plus skills.
中国已经是中等收入国家，正在向发达国家迈进。它不再是最便宜的投资目的地，但就制造和技能而言，它仍然是最便宜的。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
China is already a developed country
中国已经是发达国家了
Even if our GDP becomes 5x times we'd still be middle income by 2020 standards.
即使我们的 GDP 翻了 5 倍，按照 2020 年的标准，我们仍然是中等收入国家。
We're not anywhere near the middle income trap yet. Let's get there first.
我们还没有接近中等收入陷阱呢。我们先到了再说吧。
People need to understand why the middle income trap existed, and why it is weakening over time
The trap happens when a developing country exports to developed countries and the flow of trade goes that way
If that is the main trade relationship, the moment the country is too expensive it gets abandoned for a cheaper one, and growth stalls
However, the more global south-south trade there is, the less countries depend on wealthy nations, and the weaker the trap is
Since the modern world doesn't have the north-south hierarchy it once had, it's likely that the middle income trap is a thing of the past, or at least it's a much easier trap to get out of
China is about to officially become a developed country by 2025 or so, Malaysia became one in 2019
India should be able to replicate its sucess if it focus on improving innovation, energy production and increasing female productivity
大家需要先了解中等收入陷阱存在的原因，以及为什么它会随着时间的推移而减弱
当发展中国家向发达国家出口且贸易流向发达国家时，陷阱就会出现。
如果这是该国主要的贸易关系，那么一旦这个国家的成本过于昂贵，就会被发达国家放弃，转而寻求成本更低的国家，于是该国经济增长就会停滞不前。
然而，全球南南贸易越多，各国对富裕国家的依赖就越少，陷阱就越弱
由于现代世界没有了过去的南北等级制度，中等收入陷阱很可能已经成为过去，或者至少可以更容易摆脱这种陷阱了。
中国即将在 2025 年左右正式成为发达国家，马来西亚在 2019 年成为发达国家
如果印度专注于改进创新、能源生产和提高女性生产力，应该能够复制其成功经验。
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
India also has a large and growing domestic market. Export dependency is not a huge problem.
印度还拥有庞大且不断增长的国内市场。出口依赖并不是一个大问题。
What is your idea of a middle income trap. Let's say we get stuck in a Middle Income Trap and end with a economy like Turkey or Malaysia. What's so bad?? I mean of course they are not super powers. Still people lead a good life there by most metrics. That should be good enough for our people
你对中等收入陷阱的理解是什么？比方说，我们确实陷入中等收入陷阱，最后成为了土耳其或马来西亚那样的经济体。有什么不好？我的意思是，他们当然不是超级大国。但从大多数指标来看，那里的人们仍然过着不错的生活。这对我们的人民来说已经足够好了
原创翻译：龙腾网 https://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
What discretionary income? That’s probably the .01% of people who have that. The majority of the population is still struggling and living below poverty line. This whole purchasing power thing is only limited to larger cities and only where people really earn good money, which again is barely .1% of the population. We are not a strong economy by any means. We export services because the vast consumer base is in the US, EU or the UK.
The real aIndia lies behind the metro cities.
什么可自由支配的收入？那可能是 0.01% 的人拥有的东西。大多数人仍在挣扎，生活在贫困线以下。整个购买力问题只限于大城市，而且只有那些真正能赚大钱的城市，而这也只占总人口的 0.1%。无论如何，我们都不是一个强大的经济体。我们出口服务，因为广大的消费群体在美国、欧盟或英国。
真正的印度隐藏在大都市的背后。
Indians are now addicted to consumerism thank god I can see through this bs
At the same phase indians are not saving for future how our parents did .
In future u will see a lot of bankrupt well educated people on the streets begging
Regarding brain dead u can see a huge migration they are forced to leave the country for better life while our govt is pleasing some minorites
印度人现在沉迷于消费主义？谢天谢地，我没那么好蒙。
同时，印度人不像我们的父辈那样为未来储蓄。
将来你会看到很多受过良好教育的人破产，在街头乞讨。
还有各种脑残，你可以看到大量的移民，他们为了更好的生活被迫离开这个国家，而我们的政府却在取悦一些少数人。
Non Residential Indian
Title ans post screams of middle income trap but doesn’t mention the range of income lol
标题和帖子高喊着中等收入陷阱，但没有提到收入范围哈哈
Middle income? Have you seen per capita numbers?
中等收入？你没看过人均吗？
For decades we are having a pattern of development with minimal job generation. Currently we are growing at 8-9% and have the highest unemployment rate in half a decade. This basically tells us that it is mostly the rich getting richer with very limited economic mobility for most people
几十年来，我们的发展模式创造的就业机会极少。目前，我们的经济增长率为 8%-9%，而失业率却是近十年来最高的。这基本上告诉我们，大多数人的经济流动性非常有限，主要是富人越来越富。
Certainly yes!
Indian economy will end up between 5-7 trillion at max. We never had proper industrialization nor will will see in foreseeable future.
With inadequate industrialization and waning TFR, we'll end upxes like Brazil/SA/Malaysia.
绝对会！
印度经济最终最多将达到 5 至 7 万亿美元。我们从未实现过适当的工业化，在可预见的未来也不会实现。
由于工业化不足和总生育率下降，我们将以巴西/南非/马来西亚等状态结束。
Don't think so.
Problem is that changes take some decades, so it will take 30 years or so. The biggest benefit for India is a quite strong local market with room to grow, the biggest challenge I see is internal conflict; especially when growth creates imbalance between rich industrial hotspots and poor regions.
But India will continue to grow, and you'll continue to see proper industrialization. There are already some very good run companies on a high standard- it will spread further.
我不这么认为。
问题是，变革需要几十年的时间，因此需要 30 年左右。对印度来说，最大的好处是拥有相当强大的本地市场和增长空间，我认为最大的挑战是内部冲突；尤其是当增长造成富裕的工业热点地区和贫困地区之间的不平衡时。
但印度将继续增长，你将继续看到适当的工业化。印度已经有了一些高标准的优秀企业--这将会进一步扩散。
Lol!
You are blinded by fancy reports coming from west about Indian economy.
You're not aware of ground reality, nor understand how nations are built. I'd recommend read history of manufacturing and how Japan or PRC did it.
With this trajectory, we will stagnate by 2030 or even before.
哈哈！
你被西方关于印度经济的花哨报道蒙蔽了双眼。
你不了解实际情况，也不了解国家是如何建立的。我建议你读一读制造业的历史，看看日本或中国是这么做的。
按照这种发展轨迹，到 2030 年甚至更早，我们的经济就会停滞不前。
Indian growth story will end before India attains Dollar 8000 per capita income level
印度的增长故事将在印度达到人均8000美元收入水平之前结束