如果唐纳德·特朗普在2024年当选总统，他能担任8年总统吗?（一）

Alex Mann
Is Donald Trump going to run again in 2024, and will he win?
I thought he would try to run again- maybe. But when the heat got turned on over January 6th, over COVID, and over his many legal battles, he would back out or lose. I assumed his grip on the GOP had weakened and that he would remain an influential but powerless voice within the GOP for the remainder of his life.
Then I watched CNNs town hall, and it hit me- he’s not only going to win the primary, but he might also win the election.
For those unaware, there was a “CNN Town Hall” where a reporter interviewed Donald Trump. She asked hard-hitting questions about the January 6th Capitol riot, election denial, and his many legal battles. Now 99% of people would have folded under this kind of scrutiny. Entire political careers have been crushed by a funny yell or an affair that happened 12 years ago.
Trump was not only unaffected by the heat- he turned what should have been a grilling into a campaign ad. On every corner of social media, there are replays, soundbites, and cheering conservatives. He had the crowd cheering and laughing, and he walked away looking like the hero.
It all hit me- this is why Trump is the most significant political brand of the last few decades. Trump is back

唐纳德·特朗普会在2024年再次参选吗？他会赢吗？
我以为他会再次尝试的——也许吧。但是，当1月6日围绕疫情和他的许多法律纠纷升温时，他要么退出，要么失败。我认为他对共和党的控制已经减弱，在他的余生中，他将继续在共和党中保持一个有影响力但无能为力的声音。
然后我看了CNN的市政厅，我突然想到，他不仅会赢得初选，还可能赢得大选。
对于那些不知情的人来说，有一个“CNN市政厅”，一名记者在那里采访了唐纳德·特朗普。她就1月6日国会骚乱、否认选举以及他的许多法律斗争提出了尖锐的问题。现在99%的人都会在这种审查下折腰。整个政治生涯都被12年前发生的一次滑稽的喊叫或婚外情压垮了。
特朗普不仅没有受到众多纠纷的影响，他还把本应是一场盘问的事情变成了竞选广告。在社交媒体的每个角落，都有重播、插播和欢呼的保守派。他让观众欢呼大笑，然后他像个英雄一样离开了。
这一切让我大吃一惊——这就是为什么特朗普是过去几十年中最重要的政治品牌。特朗普回来了。

May I remind you
He is in the middle of a rape case
He got caught in possession of classified documents
He is in the middle of a fraud case
Entire political careers have ended because of 1 affair or one weird sound bite. In any other reality, a politician with this much baggage would be crushed. But Trump proved he is made of rubber and that nothing sticks.
Trump has not lost a step, and his voter base is happily getting right back in line.
Biden, on the other hand, is extremely unpopular even among Democrats. The economy is rough, inflation is causing real harm, the Ukraine War continues, and Biden mostly looks lost whenever you see him on TV.
Back in 2020, we were still in COVID, and things were weird. It was an odd election year, and finally, something had stuck to Trump- his COVID response. Even with that, Trump nearly won in 2020. Well, now Biden has been in office and not done well, and Trump is swinging out of the gates.

我可以提醒你吗？
他正在处理一起强奸案
他因持有机密文件而被捕
他正在陷入一起诈骗案中
整个政治生涯都因为一件事或一个奇怪的声音片段而结束了。在任何其他现实中，一个背负这么多包袱的政治家都会被压垮。但特朗普证明了他是由橡胶制成的，没有什么能粘牢他。
特朗普没有失误，他的选民基础正在愉快地重新回到正轨。
另一方面，即使在民主党人中，拜登也极不受欢迎。经济不景气，通货膨胀造成了真正的伤害，乌克兰战争仍在继续，每当你在电视上看到拜登时，他看起来大多很失落。
回到2020年，我们仍然处于新冠疫情之中，事情很奇怪。这是一个奇怪的选举年，最终，特朗普身上粘着什么东西——他对新冠疫情的反应。即便如此，特朗普也差点在2020年大选中获胜。

RL Jones
No. The 22nd Amendment to the US Constitution clearly states that US Presidents can only be elected twice to serve a total of two terms. Trump already did one term, four years.. If he was re-elected, it would only be for one term, an additional four years. There are no exceptions.
The 22nd Amendment says a US president can only be elected twice and trump won in 2016 and, in his mind, 2020 so trump should not attempt a third election.
Besides, he'll be 79 and he's hassled Biden for being a feeble old man and trump will be less physically fit old man on 6 January 2025. (Trump is 3 1/2 years younger than Biden.)

不可以。美国宪法第22条修正案明确规定，美国总统只能当选两次，总共连任两届。特朗普已经任过一届——四年了。如果他再次当选，任期只有一届，再延长四年而已，没有例外。
第22条修正案规定，美国总统只能当选两届，特朗普在2016年获胜，在他看来，在2020年，它是获胜了的，因此特朗普不应该尝试参与第三次选举。
此外，他将年满79岁，他曾因拜登是一个虚弱的老人而与之争吵，而到2025年1月6日，特朗普也就会变得不那么健康了。（特朗普比拜登年轻三岁半。）

Chris O'Leary
Will Donald Trump be the USA’s president again?
Between 2016 and 2020 I must have seen 1000 questions asking if Hillary was going to run again in 2020.
My answer was always the same. “There is not a bigger favor Democrats could do for Republicans than nominate Hillary again.
I fully expect to see this question even more often, because unlike Hillary who never talked about running again after her loss, Trump has hinted that he will.
But the answer is the same.
There is not a bigger favor Republicans could do for Democrats in 2024 than to nominate Donald Trump again.

唐纳德·特朗普会再次成为美国总统吗？
在2016年至2020年期间，我肯定是看了1000个问题，问希拉里是否会在2020年再次参选。
我的回答总是一样的：“民主党人对共和党人最大的帮助莫过于再次提名希拉里。
我完全可以预料到这个问题会更频繁地出现，因为不像希拉里在败选后再也没有谈论过竞选，特朗普已经暗示过他会参选。
但答案是一样的。
2024年，共和党人对民主党人的最大帮助莫过于再次提名唐纳德·特朗普。

Christine
Will Trump become president again in 2027?
NO.
Trump inflamed and orchestrated an insurrection, lied to the American people for four years, was impeached twice, and no longer has credibility. His legacy is stained forever.
Congress still needs to vote on the resolution to keep Trump from ever holding an honorable office again in the future.

特朗普会在2027年再次成为总统吗？
不会
特朗普煽动和策划了一场叛乱，对美国人民撒谎了四年，被弹劾了两次，不再有公信力，他的遗产被永久玷污了。
国会仍然需要对该决议进行投票，以阻止特朗普在未来再次担任光荣的职位。

William Murphy
If President Trump runs for President again in 2024 and wins, can he run again in 2028 for re-election?
No, he cannot.
So if Trump were to run again in 2024, and if he were to win, he would be limited to one term, and would be ineligible to run again in 2028. Grover Cleveland did win two non-consecutive terms in 1884 and 1892, but the term limit on the presidency did not exist then, and Cleveland legally could have run again in 1896.

如果特朗普总统在2024年再次竞选总统并获胜，他能在2028年再次竞选连任吗？
不，他不能。
如果特朗普在2024年再次参选，如果他获胜，他将被限制在一个任期内，并且没有资格在2028年再次参选。格罗弗·克利夫兰确实在1884年和1892年赢得了两次非连续任期，但当时没有总统任期限制，克利夫兰在法律上可以在1896年再次竞选的。

Sylvain Saurel
If Donald Trump lost the 2024 election, can he run again in 2028?
You have understood that Donald Trump's goal is to run in 2024.
If he were to lose again in 2024, Donald Trump would still have only served one term as President of the United States. He would therefore be entitled to run again in 2028 by law.
However, the path to 2024 already seems very narrow for Donald Trump.
If he were to lose again in 2024, it seems impossible that he would still be in the political landscape afterward to run in 2028. Perhaps he will try to pass the torch to one of his children.
For him, it will be over, because the support of his supporters will have disappeared, and he will be too old.

如果唐纳德·特朗普在2024年大选中失利，他能在2028年再次参选吗？
你已经明白唐纳德·特朗普的目标是参加2024年大选。
如果唐纳德·特朗普在2024年再次失利，他仍然只担任了一届美国总统。因此，根据法律规定，他有权在2028年再次参选。
然而，对于唐纳德·特朗普来说，2024年的道路似乎已经非常狭窄。
如果他在2024年再次失利，那么他似乎不可能在2028年仍处于政治舞台中。也许他会试着把火炬传给他的某个孩子。
对他来说，这一切都将结束，因为支持他的支持者会消失，而届时他也太老了。

Carl Belken
I’m a retired person who lives in Missouri.
I figured that Trump would lose in 2016.
One day I took my tiller to be repaired. We still have shops here that will fix your stuff while you wait and not charge us nearly as much as a shop in town will. The waiting area in this shop is a few battered chairs where we sit and watch the guys work. The type of place the pundits and the elites of both parties in Washington would not be caught dead in.
The men and women there that day were people who worked hard for a living. Mostly farmers, foresters, and people who did commercial lawn care. The group that day was talking about the EPA. A farmer said “I have done everything I could to comply with their demands.” “I have borrowed money.” “I get different answers from different inspectors.” “I have tried my best but they are going to fine me anyway.”
The mood of the listeners was like what you’d see at a funeral home. These people don’t have the money or the lawyers to fight the bureaucracy. They don’t have the money to make big campaign contributions. They were also angry. Quietly angry. Nothing like the caricatures the media portrays them to be.
When I left there that day I had a feeling that Trump would win.

我是一个退休人员，住在密苏里州。
我以为特朗普会在2016年输掉竞选的。
有一天，我带着我的舵柄去修理。我们这里仍然有商店可以在你等待的时候帮你修理东西，而且不像城里的商店一样收我们那么多钱。这家商店的等候区是几把破旧的椅子，我们坐在那里看着伙计们工作。华盛顿的权威人士和两党精英不会被困在这样的地方。
那天那里的男人和女人都是为了生计而辛勤工作的人。大多数是农民、林业工作者和从事商业草坪护理的人。那天，这个团体在谈论环保局。一位农民说：“我已经尽了一切努力来满足他们的要求。”
听众的心情就像你在殡仪馆看到的那样。这些人既没有钱也没有律师来对抗官僚主义。他们没有足够的钱为竞选捐款。他们也很生气、安静地生气，一点也不像媒体所描绘的那样。
当我那天离开那里时，我有一种感觉，特朗普会赢。

Jonathan Doe
Is Donald Trump really going to be the president of United States?
[EDIT: This answer was first written about one month prior to the 2016 election. My analysis was based upon polling data, and the conclusion I came to was similar to that made by many, including Nate Silver and the Princeton Election Consortium ran by Sam Wang, both individuals with a background in statistics and science. Some comments made to me in this answer following the election were very demeaning and disrespectful, but criticizing my certainty is unfair because I come from a scientific background and a lot of scientific analysis was showing Hillary Clinton winning. However, you can observe from previous answers I’d given several months before the election that I believed it was possible for Trump to win if Clinton failed to sext Bernie Sanders as her VP running mate. I am still convinced that if she had done this she would have won the election. By snubbing Bernie she turned off millions of potential supporters who were already upset about Bernie throwing his support behind her. But if she’d chosen him as her running mate she’d have won simply because in six states she lost by less than 90k votes.]
No.
That’s not an opinion, it’s a fact. How can I be so confident?

唐纳德·特朗普真的会成为美国总统吗？
编辑：这个答案最早是在2016年大选前一个月写的。我的分析是基于民意调查数据得出的，我得出的结论与许多人的结论相似，包括Nate Silver和Sam Wang管理的普林斯顿选举联盟，他们都有统计学和科学背景。在大选之后，在这个回答中对我的一些评论是非常贬低和不尊重的，但批评我的确定性是不公平的，因为我有科学背景，很多科学分析都显示希拉里·克林顿会赢。然而，你可以从我在大选前几个月给出的答案中观察到，我认为如果克林顿没有选择伯尼·桑德斯作为她的副总统竞选伙伴，特朗普有可能获胜。我仍然相信，如果她做到了这一点，她就会赢得选举。通过冷落伯尼，她失去了无数潜在的支持者，他们已经从支持伯尼转而对她感到不满。但如果她选择伯尼作为竞选搭档，她会赢，因为在六个州，她只输了不到9万票。
特朗普不会成为美国总统了
这不是意见，这是事实，我怎么能这么自信？

It’s based on mathematics, known voter loyalties, and poll trends over the past year. As a result we already know which states are definitely going to stay ‘blue’, and which states are definitely going to stay ‘red’ this year. There are only a handful of "toss up" states for this 2016 election cycle; these include Nevada, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and a couple of others depending upon which analyst you read. Florida and/or Ohio are almost always considered “toss ups” no matter what is happening in the country each national election, but there will be differences on who else fits into that category each election cycle. There was some early discussion whether or not Georgia will be a “toss up” state this year, but in my analysis I do not believe that will be the case.
I went to the 2016 Presidential Election Interactive Map and as an experiment decided to give *ALL* of the “toss up” states to Trump, and even when doing that Hillary still wins the election. In other words, even if Trump wins Florida, Ohio, Nevada, and North Carolina, and every other accepted or debated “toss up” state, Hillary Clinton still wins the election because those states guaranteed to vote for the Democratic candidate this year add up to 273 Electoral votes. The media knows this already, so this would mean all of the hype is just for ratings because they know Hillary is going to win anyway. (she knows this too, which might be why she stays out of the spotlight allowing Trump to shoot himself in the foot which might also result in her picking up an additional state or two). Nate Silver has stated a similar opinion.
The interesting thing is that Hillary’s win of 273 EV’s is merely the “worst case scenario” because it’s a scenario where both Ohio and Florida are won by Trump, which I don't believe to be very likely. He will quite likely win Ohio, but Florida has so many retirees and immigrants that I cannot see Trump winning that state, and statistics bear that out.

它基于数学、已知的选民忠诚度和过去一年的民意调查趋势。因此，我们已经知道哪些州今年肯定会保持“蓝色”，哪些州今年一定会保持“红色”。在2016年的选举周期中，只有少数几个“悬而未决”的州；其中包括内华达州、佛罗里达州、俄亥俄州、北卡罗来纳州和其他几个州，具体取决于你阅读的分析师。佛罗里达州和/或俄亥俄州几乎总是被认为是“摇摆不定”的，无论该国在每次全国选举中发生了什么，但在每个选举周期中，谁属于这一类别，都会存在差异。早些时候曾讨论过佐治亚州今年是否会成为一个“摇摆不定”的州，但在我的分析中，我不认为会是这样。
我去看了2016年总统选举互动地图，作为一个实验，我决定把“所有”“摇摆不定”的州都给特朗普，即使这样，希拉里仍然赢得了选举。换言之，即使特朗普赢得了佛罗里达州、俄亥俄州、内华达州和北卡罗来纳州，以及其他所有被接受或辩论的“摇摆”州，希拉里·克林顿仍然赢得了选举，因为那些今年保证会投票给民主党候选人的州加起来有273张选票。媒体已经知道了这一点，所以这意味着所有的炒作都只是为了收视率，因为他们知道希拉里无论如何都会赢。(她也知道这一点，这可能就是为什么她远离聚光灯，让特朗普搬起石头砸自己的脚，这也可能导致她多拿下一两个州)。内特·席尔瓦也表达了类似的观点。
有趣的是，希拉里赢得273张选票只是“最坏的情况”，因为这是特朗普赢得俄亥俄州和佛罗里达州的情况，我认为这是不太可能的。他很可能会赢得俄亥俄州，但佛罗里达州有这么多退休人员和移民，我看不出特朗普会赢得该州的理由，统计数据证明了这一点。

The above are statistical facts, but now I will state an opinion: I believe the “most likely” scenario is 302 EV for Hillary and 236 EV for Trump. That is the total when you give every single “toss up” state to Trump, except for Florida. She appears to be in a good position to also win Nevada which would make the final EV total 308 EV for Hillary and 230 EV for Trump, therefore that is Part B of my “Most Likely” scenario. In other words come 9am November 9th, 2016 I expect the final tally to be either Clinton 302/Trump 236 or Clinton 308/Trump 230. (Of those two I personally believe the latter to be the most likely of my “Most Likely” :) ). Please note that my “Best Case Scenario” map is what I consider to be unlikely but still possible because there are indications from several polls that Ohio and North Carolina are slowly but steadily moving toward Clinton [EDIT #1: As of Sat 01 Oct 2016, Nate Silver’s 538 blog now projects Clinton winning both North Carolina and Florida in all three of his statistical models, and winning Ohio in two out of his three statistical models]. If Clinton wins 341/197 then we can expect to hear from both her and the mainstream media terms like “landslide” , whether true or not. [EDIT #2: As of Weds 02 Nov 2016 all polling aggregators report that the gap between Trump and Clinton is narrowing, leaving her lead at about 3 to 5 points nationwide. However, there is no data or analysis that overturns my “Worst Case Scenario”. Clinton is coming out incredibly strong in early voting all over the country because she isn’t merely drawing in Democrats, she’s also pulling in many Republicans who are scared of Mr. Trump and concerned about what he is doing to their Party. Clinton will still win this election; all of the data and analysis confirms that. However, the question of the hour is ‘can she break through that minimum of 273 EVs?’ A weak win is still a win, but the lower her EV total the more we can expect some of the more vocal Trump supporters to question her legitimacy.] [EDIT #3: As of Mon 07 Nov 2016 I now think the “Most Likely Scenario” is going to be Clinton 323 to Trump 225. Her lead in Nevada and North Carolina has remained steady, and although some polls are suggesting a tie in Florida, she is leading significantly in early voting and some more historically reliable polls show Clinton up by 2 points in Florida. She is also taking one-third of the Republican vote in most all of the early voting results so far. The states that I’m keeping my eye on are Alaska and Arizona where a Clinton win is still possible. Alaska is tied. Bottom line though, the “Worst Case Scenario” I presented will be exceeded, thus solidifying my initial “No” answer that Mr. Trump would not win this election. Let’s see what happens tomorrow. No further edits will be made so that if I am wrong or right it will be recorded without alteration. Thanks for all the views and comments. MAKE SURE YOU VOTE TOMORROW!]

以上是统计事实，但现在我要陈述一个观点：我认为“最有可能”的情况是希拉里302 张选票，特朗普236 张选票。当你把每一个“摇摆不定”的州都交给特朗普时，这就是总数，除了佛罗里达州。她似乎也很有可能赢得内华达州，这将使希拉里的最终总票数达到308张，特朗普的总票数为230张，因此这是我“最有可能”的情景的B部分。换言之，2016年11月9日上午9点，我预计最终结果是希拉里302票VS特朗普236票或希拉里308票VS特朗普230票。(在这两者中，我个人认为后者是我“最有可能”的请注意，我的“最佳情况”地图是我认为不太可能但仍然有可能的，因为几项民意调查显示，俄亥俄州和北卡罗来纳州正在缓慢但稳步地向希拉里靠拢[编辑1:截至2016年10月1日星期六，Nate Silver的538博客现在预测希拉里在他的三个统计模型中都赢得了北卡罗来纳州和佛罗里达州，在他的三个统计模型中，有两个赢得了俄亥俄州]。如果希拉里以341/197获胜，那么我们可以期待听到她和主流媒体的说法，比如“压倒性优势”这样的词，无论是真是假。[编辑2：截至2016年11月2日星期三，所有投票聚合器报告称，特朗普和希拉里之间的差距正在缩小，使她在全国范围内领先约3至5个百分点。然而，没有任何数据或分析可以推翻我的“最坏情况”希拉里全国各地的提前投票中表现得非常强劲，因为她不仅吸引了民主党人，还吸引了许多害怕特朗普并担心他对他们政党所做的事情的共和党人。希拉里仍将赢得这次选举；所有的数据和分析都证实了这一点。然而，现在的问题是“她能突破273张选票的最低标准吗？”微弱的胜利仍然是胜利，但她的总票数越低，我们就越可以预期一些更直言不讳的特朗普支持者会质疑她的合法性。][编辑3：截至2016年11月7日星期一，我现在认为“最有可能的情况”将是希拉里323票VS特朗普225票。她在内华达州和北卡罗来纳州的领先优势一直保持稳定，尽管一些民调显示她在佛罗里达州的领先地位持平，但她在提前投票中大幅领先，一些历史上更可靠的民调显示希拉里在佛罗里达州领先2个百分点。在迄今为止的大部分提前投票结果中，她还获得了共和党三分之一的选票。我一直在关注的州是阿拉斯加州和亚利桑那州，在那里希拉里仍然有可能获胜。阿拉斯加打成平手。不过，最重要的是，我提出的“最坏情况”将被超过，从而巩固了我最初的“不”的回答，即特朗普不会赢得这次选举。让我们看看明天会发生什么。不会进行进一步的编辑，这样，如果我错了或对了，它将被记录下来，不会被更改。感谢所有的意见和评论。确保你明天投票！]

{EDIT #4: 22 Dec 2016 - Okay, okay, yes, I was wrong. Thank you to everyone who made a special effort to point it out to me, but especially for the few ‘classy’ individuals who enjoyed rubbing my face in it. The fact is that every major pollster including the experts Nate Silver and Sam Wang got it ‘wrong’. There remains a debate as to whether or not the election was manipulated and voting results tampered with (be it from Russia or unscrupulous conservatives in America). The unbiased reality is that when you add up the number who voted for Hillary with those who didn’t vote at all, Trump actually has the support of only about 34% of Americans - the other 66% are scared scatless right now as is evident across all social media, across the press, across the country. Another reality is he is going to be our next President. I am not happy, in fact I’m disgusted and terrified that a demagogue with no respect fort he Constitution and Bill of Rights has gotten into the White House. The economic, social, and political comparisons between Germany 1933, Hitler’s style of campaigning and the way he spoke and what he claimed, is eerily like Trump.. The sextions he’s made for his Cabinet speaks volumes: racists, corporate CEOs, bankers, people who want to dismantle necessary agencies. It’s clear his focus will be to further benefit the rich, destroy social programs, and help himself. Now lets make another prediction just for the hell of it: I predict Trump will be impeached within two years. With all of the intense fear floating across the country the prediction of impeachment is the least frightening thing I can hope for when compared to the many frightening things that over 60% of Americans and people across the globe are fearing will actually occur under his administration. God help us all. God save our Republic.]

{编辑4：2016年12月22日，好吧，是的，我错了。感谢所有特别努力向我指出这一点的人，尤其是那些喜欢用它打我脸的“优雅”的人。事实上，包括专家Nate Silver和Sam Wang在内的每一位主要民意调查专家都认为这是“错误的”。关于选举是否被操纵和投票结果是否被篡改（无论是来自俄罗斯还是美国肆无忌惮的保守派），仍存在争议。客观的现实是，当你把投票给希拉里的人和根本没有投票的人加起来时，特朗普实际上只得到了大约34%的美国人的支持——其他66%的人现在都非常害怕，这在所有社交媒体、媒体和全国各地都很明显。另一个现实是，他将成为我们的下一任总统。我很不高兴，事实上，我对一个不尊重宪法和权利法案的煽动者进入白宫感到厌恶和恐惧。将1933年德国的经济、社会和政治、希特勒的竞选风格、他的讲话方式和他的主张进行比较，都与特朗普惊人地相似。他的内阁人选足以说明问题:种族主义者、企业首席执行官、银行家，以及那些想要解散必要机构的人。很明显，他的重点将是进一步造福富人，摧毁社会项目，并帮助自己。现在让我们再做一个预测:我预测特朗普将在两年内被弹劾。在整个国家弥漫着强烈的恐惧之际，与超过60%的美国人和全球人民担心在他的政府下会发生的许多可怕的事情相比，弹劾的预测是我所希望的最不可怕的事情。愿上帝帮助我们所有人。上帝保佑我们的共和国。]