印度人口超越中国对全球经济而言意味着什么
What India’s Population Surpassing China’s Means for Global Economies | WSJ
译文简介
到这个月为止，中国已经连续在两个多世纪里都是世界上人口最多的国家。而印度人口或已超过中国这一里程碑事件则被一些人视作新的全球经济秩序来临的预兆。世界经济还能继续依赖中国庞大的工人阶级生产制造业吗？
正文翻译
每人一小段，翻译我也行！
每日新素材，等你来认领！ https://www.ltaaa.cn/translation
China has been the most populous country for more than two centuries – until this month. India''s population may have surpassed China’s, a milestone that some believe heralds a new global order. How much can the world economy continue to rely on China’s vast pool of factory workers for manufactured goods?
WSJ examines what this shift in population for India and China could mean for the future of each country, as well as the entire global economy.
0:00 India’s population is expected to double China’s by the start of the next century
1:03 Why is China’s population shrinking?
2:49 What China’s population decline means for the global economy
3:55 What India’s growing population will mean for its role in global affairs
到这个月为止，中国已经连续在两个多世纪里都是世界上人口最多的国家。而印度人口或已超过中国这一里程碑事件则被一些人视作新的全球经济秩序来临的预兆。世界经济还能继续依赖中国庞大的工人阶级生产制造业吗？
《华尔街日报》分析了印度和中国人口变化对每个国家的未来以及全球经济意味着什么？
0:00 到下个世纪初，印度人口将是中国的两倍。
1:03 为什么中国人口下滑？
2:49 中国人口减少对全球经济意味着什么？
3:55 印度人口增加将对其在全球事务中扮演的角色 带来什么影响。
每日新素材，等你来认领！ https://www.ltaaa.cn/translation
-------------译者：wangniannian--- 审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------
China has been the most populous country for more than two centuries – until this month. India''s population may have surpassed China’s, a milestone that some believe heralds a new global order. How much can the world economy continue to rely on China’s vast pool of factory workers for manufactured goods?
WSJ examines what this shift in population for India and China could mean for the future of each country, as well as the entire global economy.
0:00 India’s population is expected to double China’s by the start of the next century
1:03 Why is China’s population shrinking?
2:49 What China’s population decline means for the global economy
3:55 What India’s growing population will mean for its role in global affairs
到这个月为止，中国已经连续在两个多世纪里都是世界上人口最多的国家。而印度人口或已超过中国这一里程碑事件则被一些人视作新的全球经济秩序来临的预兆。世界经济还能继续依赖中国庞大的工人阶级生产制造业吗？
《华尔街日报》分析了印度和中国人口变化对每个国家的未来以及全球经济意味着什么？
0:00 到下个世纪初，印度人口将是中国的两倍。
1:03 为什么中国人口下滑？
2:49 中国人口减少对全球经济意味着什么？
3:55 印度人口增加将对其在全球事务中扮演的角色 带来什么影响。
评论翻译
很赞 ( 5 )
收藏
It kinda feels weird when you realise you wouldn''t be there till 2100 to experience all that...
当你意识到自己不会活到2100年时，就会感到有点奇怪，无法经历所有的事情......
Right now i believe India should focus on investing in infrastructure that will boost in connecting the states of India and its economies. The economy of China is extremely connected and even tho they might speak different languages (similar writing scxt but different pronounciation) they have been able to create a system that is extremely efficient. Once India can fix it''s infra problem they can allow the economy to grow even more as now India can supply itself and pay itself and grow it''s domestic market while producing goods that might entice the global market.
我认为印度现在应该专注于投资于基础设施建设，以推动连接印度各邦和各地区的经济。中国的经济联系非常紧密，即使他们可能说不同的语言（类似的写作形式但发音不同），但他们已经创建了一个非常高效的系统。一旦印度能够解决基础设施问题，他们可以让经济进一步增长，因为现在印度可以自给自足，同时扩大自己的国内市场，生产可能吸引全球市场的商品。
Not to mention that modern pakistan and bangladesh are parts of historical India. And both of these countries are also among the largest population countries in the world. At its peak this century, india, pakistan, and bangladesh could host 1/3 of the earth''s population. Thats incredible!
更不用说现代的巴基斯坦和孟加拉国都是历史上印度的一部分。这两个国家也是世界上人口最多的国家之一。在本世纪的高峰时期，印度、巴基斯坦和孟加拉国可以容纳地球上三分之一的人口，这太不可思议了！
-------------译者：香蕉呐呐--- 审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------
I''m applying for software jobs and so many positions I see open are hiring people from within India. Would not surprise me if they become a tech superpower (which I guess some people view it as already there, but that''s debatable)
当我申请软件职位时，我注意到很多职位空缺都在寻找印度的员工。如果印度继续发展成为全球科技超级大国，这并不会让人意外，我认为已经有人觉得印度是超级科技强国了，但这是有待商榷的。
I feel weird when I see the 2070 graph people over 65 again and again.
The fact that I am included in that graph somehow makes me feel old and I am just 19.
每次看到那张 2070 年的人口统计图，特别是那些 65 岁以上的人，我总觉得很奇怪。事实上，我的年龄也在这个统计中，这让我觉得自己好像已经变老了，尽管我只有 19 岁。
In the 1960''s Club of Rome, Malthusians & other population scientists felt india will go into anarchy by year 2000 or even worse break up & cause wars & famines. Wait 20 more years & India is going to be a force of peace & prosperity of the world while using resources sensibly & environmentally responsible. We may be paying the price for other profligacies but still India will rise.
20 世纪 60 年代，罗马俱乐部、马尔萨斯学派和其他人口科学家认为，印度在 2000 年会陷入无政府的混乱状态，甚至是分裂，导致战争和饥荒。等待 20 年，印度将成为世界的和平与繁荣力量，同时合理地利用资源并负责任地保护环境。尽管我们可能因为其他的肆意挥霍而付出代价，但印度仍会崛起。
-------------译者：wangniannian--- 审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------
There is no way India will ever touch 1.7 billion. The fertility rate of India is now 1.9 in 2023 and is declining at the rate of 7-8% per annum. India''s population will peak around 1.6 billion between 2050-2055 and then decline to 900 million by 2100. At the same time, China''s population will not be 750 million but somewhere between 500-550 million.
印度不可能达到17亿人口。2023年，印度的生育率为1.9，并且每逐年下降7-8%。2050-2055年间，印度的人口将达到峰值，约为16亿，接着将在2100年之前下降至9亿。同时，中国的人口不会是7.5亿，而是在5-5.5亿之间。
Nothing against India but if take into account AI will replace many jobs in the next future and you have a enormous unskilled population this looks like more like burden than a advantage. Just look at Pakistan and Nigeria both surpassed Brazil population but that doesn''t mean anything if they don''t have proper infrastructure a good system of education and most people live in poverty.
没有针对印度的意思，但考虑到人工智能将在未来取代许多工作，而印度又拥有大量无技能人口，这看起来更像负担而非优势。以巴基斯坦和尼日利亚为参考，这两国人口都超过了巴西的人口，但他们没有完善的基础设施、良好的教育体系且大多数人都生活在贫困中，人口多对他们而言则毫无意义。
In India most of the graduates from colleges do not have sufficient skills. Majority colleges in India are just diploma producing mills. Also there is lack of quality paid jobs for many leading to a scramble for government jobs. Well off or the smart people take off to western countries for greener pastures. It''s not all doom and gloom but that there are many problems which need to be urgently addressed
在印度，大多数大学毕业生缺乏足够的技能。印度的大多数学院只是文凭制造工厂。此外高薪工作的短缺导致大量劳动力争先恐后地想要进入政府部门。富人和高技术人才则离开印度去西方国家谋求更美好的生活。对于印度社会来说，这算不上是多么灰色的景象，但确实有许多问题急需解决。
-------------译者：wangniannian--- 审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
The declining fertitlity rate is a common symptome of the industrializing process and access to contraception. The one child policy was not a deciding factor in this, but definitely made it worse.
工业化进步和避孕措施的可获得性会导致生育率下降。一胎政策并不是决定性因素，但肯定会加剧这个问题。
India''s government has a traditional policy of resisting and restricting foreign investment.
They see foreign investment as a threat.
I have read that this has decreased. I wonder how much, and if it is enough.
印度的传统政策是抵制和限制外国投资。他们认为外国投资是一种威胁。我了解到，这方面情况已经有所改善。但我想知道这种改善的幅度如何，是否足够。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
smaller higher skilled and educated population means a bright future. large unskilled and uneducated population means a miserable future
更少的人口数量、更多的高技术和高学历人才意味着光明的未来。大量的无技能人口和未受教育人口则意味着悲惨的未来。
I love the way how western Media show China financial capital Shanghaito represent Thier country and India oldest city of Banaras to represent my country Hahaha this is how they do propaganda against any developing country
我喜欢西方媒体用中国金融之都上海代表他们的国家形象，而用印度最古老的城市Banaras代表我的国家。哈哈，这就是他们针对任何发展中国家所进行的宣传方式。
-------------译者：wangniannian--- 审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------
A study by Yi Fuxian of University of Wisconsin showed that China was exaggerating its births for decades. His analysis showed that China''s population is about 1.26 billion.
It had fallen below India''s population about 10 years ago.
Since it was births that were exaggerated, that means that the demographic problem is even worse. It has fewer young people to drive its economy.
一则来自威斯康星大学的易复先教授的研究表明：中国几十年来一直夸大其生育率。他的分析显示：中国现在人口约为12.6亿，大约十年前，它就已经低于印度的人口。由于被夸大的是出生率，这意味着它的人口问题会更加严重，因为推动经济发展的年轻人会越来越少。
I am 19,an Indian....and I have seen many of my friends are not working to get a job rather to create jobs....including me?
我今年19岁，是一名印度人……我看到我的很多朋友都不是为了找工作而努力工作，而是要创造就业机会，包括我自己。
No difference as the poorer countries tend to have tremendous population growth.
Tremendous population growth equals low per capita income as the government lacked the resources to educate them.
Most countries don’t have sufficient resources to educate them or create a vibrant economy that provides jobs for them.
穷国之间差别不大，他们国家人口增长都很惊人。
可怕的人口增长意味着国民人均收入较低，因为政府缺乏资源来教育人民。
大多数国家没有足够的资源来教育居民或者创造一个能提供就业机会的充满活力的经济。
-------------译者：wangniannian--- 审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------
Just because India has a similar population to China, it is not inevitable that India will be as successful as China.
Except in population, the two countries do not have much in common, either in culture & history or physical geography.
China will be China and India will be India.
不要仅仅因为印度与中国的人口相似，就认为印度将像中国一样成功。
除了人口，这两个国家在文化和历史或地理上都没有太多共同点。
中国将继续是中国，印度将继续是印度。
The video points out that 70% of India’s population lives in rural areas, yet all TV networks rely on that one set of images from a super dense Indian city to represent India.
视频指出，印度70%的人口居住在农村地区，但所有电视媒体都用一个有着超级密集人口的城市作为国家形象来代表印度。
You can certainly do a better job at picking shots which are currently full of stereotypical things. There is a crazy diversity and every extreme in India but WSJ seems to be showing only one extreme.
在挑选那些充满刻板印象的镜头时，你肯定可以做的更好。 印度是具有超级丰富多样性的国家，且它的每一面都很极端，但《华尔街日报》似乎只展示了其中一个极端。
Over all, what that change in India?s population means for EEUU?; it mean there is another country that will surpass EEUU?s Economy by 2028; EEUU will be the third power in the world by that year.
总的来说，印度人口变化对美国意味着什么？它意味着到2028年，还会有另一个国家超过美国经济；到那时，美国将成为世界第三大强国。
-------------译者：wangniannian--- 审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------
India +ves:
- Institution of Marriage is still the best among all c0untries & it helps consistent childbirth rate
- It’s geography ensures consistent rainfall & it helps to feed it’s own population
- It’s still agrarian economy, so the very basic need FOOD is mostly self-sustained
- Cost of Living is comparatively low & a family can live somewhat good with 250$/month
印度的优点： 婚姻制度在所有国家中仍然是最好的，有助于保持出生率的持续。
印度的地理位置确保了持续的降雨，并有助于满足自身人口的粮食需求。
它仍然是一个以农业为主的经济体系，因此最基本的需求——食物，大多数情况下能自给自足的。
生活成本相对较低，一家人每月只需250美元左右就可以过得比较好。
If the economic rise and development is guaranteed by the rise of population, then the most densely populated state of Bihar in India would have been more fairly developed instead of being one of the most impoverished states in India.
如果经济崛起和发展是由人口增长引起的，那么印度人口最密集的比哈尔邦经济就应该是有与之相应的发展，而不是成为印度最贫困的邦之一。
I''m from India. I don''t know anybody who has more than 3 Kids. Normal is 1 - 2. Abnormal is 3. Its the common these days, Gone are days of people having more than 3 Kids, It might have been true in the older generation, Not today.
我来自印度。我不认识任何有3个以上孩子的人。通常情况是1到2个孩子，少数家庭会有3个孩子。现在情况已经普遍性的改善了，过去可能会有人拥有3个以上的孩子，但现在不再是这样了。
-------------译者：wangniannian--- 审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------
Please ensure that you use the correct map of India and respect our international borders. If someone comes up with the argument that it belongs to the one occupying, we will respond accordingly in the near future.
请确保您正确的使用印度地图并尊重我们的国际边界。如果有人提出它属于占领者这样子的论点，那么，我们将在不久的将来做出相应回应。
So India should invest heavily in infrastructure so that companies would relocate manufacturing there creating a lot of jobs. I guess in the next few decades "made in India" will be a thing.
因此，印度应该大力投资基础设施，以便一些公司能够转移制造业到印度，创造大量就业机会。我想，在未来几十年，“印度制造”将成为一种现象。
It will be interesting to see what a 2050 world will look like.. China, India and the US will be the 3 largest economies.. China will most likely be at odds with US and India.. Yuan and Rupee trade will increase significantly, meanwhile dollar trade will decrease percentage wise.. The demographics of each nation will be vastly different from the other..
我们来看看2050年的世界，它将是很有趣的...中国、印度和美国将是三个最大的经济体...中国同美印很可能会产生许多分歧...人民币和卢比贸易将显著增加，同时美元贸易比例将有所下降...每个国家的人口结构都将大不相同.
-------------译者：wangniannian--- 审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------
Trivia note: The U.S. game show The Amazing Race has been on for 34 Seasons, they have traveled to India for 12 of them (1, 4, 6, 7, 10, 12, 13, 14, 18, 20, 27, & 32), & they have traveled to China for 9 of them (1, 6, 10, 14, 16, 18, 21, 24, & 28).
趣闻：美国电视节目《极速前进》已经播出了34个季度，其中有12个季度将旅行目的地选在了印度（1、4、6、7、10、12、13、14、18、20、27、32），9个季度在中国（1、6、10、14、16、18、21、24、28）
We have many new tech and abundant food by 2030 so no problem for both nations
到2030年我们将会有许多新技术以及丰富的粮食，所以两个国家都不会有问题。
India has quality population. They are young and ready. A peaceful population with enough to eat and survive, educated enough to drive the world and progressing well, and the population will taper by year 2100 to 800 million from current 1400 million. Nothing to worry about INDIA. A democracy and not thrusting outward and believing in assimilation than confrontation, secular and multilingual and multi ethnic etc.
印度拥有高素质的人口。他们年轻有为，充满活力。这是一群有足够的食物和生存条件且受过良好教育的爱好和平的人类，他们会推动世界进步。到2100年，该国的人口将从当前的14亿减少到8亿。因此，印度没有什么可担心的。这是一个民主国家，不会向外扩张，更相信融合而非对抗，具有宗教中立性、多种语言和多元族群等特点。