如果印度在1947年没有被分治，会发生什么（一）

Jitender Singh
What would happen if India and Pakistan were not partitioned in 1947?
This would have happened:
Huge tourism in Kashmir. Kashmir would have been top choice for Honeymoon.
No cross border terrorism. People would have truly enjoyed Kashmir.
National highway connectivity from Karachi - Ahmedabad, Jammu- Islamabad - Peshawar.
No Hindu/Muslim agenda would worked for politician.
We would have more strong Army.
People would not have died in 1947 while partition.
People who were relocated would have stayed at their home town.
Bangladesh would not have existed.
We would have a strong Cricket and Hockey team.

如果1947年印度和巴基斯坦没有分治，会发生什么？
这种情况会发生：
克什米尔旅游业蓬勃发展，克什米尔将是度蜜月的首选。
没有跨境恐怖主义，人们会真正享受在克什米尔的时光。
卡拉奇-艾哈迈达巴德、查谟-伊斯兰堡-白沙瓦之间修建连接在一起的国道。
任何印度教/穆斯林议程都不会对政治家起作用。
我们会有更强大的军队。
1947年分治时人们不会死。
被重新安置的人会留在他们的家乡。
孟加拉国就不会存在。
我们会有一支强大的板球队和曲棍球队。

Iran-India natural gas pipe line would have existed(proposed in 50s), benefitting both countries.
CPEC would not have existed.
No war would have fought in 1948, 1965, 1971, 1999.
Frequent flights would have been there between Karachi - Mumbai, Karachi -Delhi, Lahore - Delhi
Jammu and Kashmir might have an Independent country having friendly relation with India like Nepal.
Undivided Punjab would have 5 rivers.
Pilgrims from all over India would visit Nankana Sahib.
BJP would not asked people to go Pakistan. :D
Water of Indus River would have supplied to Rajasthan and Gujarat.

伊朗-印度天然气管道本应存在（50年代提出），对两国都有利。
将不会存在中巴经济走廊。
1948年、1965年、1971年和1999年都不会发生战争。
卡拉奇-孟买、卡拉奇-德里、拉合尔-德里之间会有频繁的航班
查谟和克什米尔可能会成为一个像尼泊尔一样与印度存在友好关系的独立国家。
未分割的旁遮普将有5条河流。
来自印度各地的朝圣者将参观嫩加纳胡沙布。
人民党不会要求人们去巴基斯坦
印度河的水将供应给拉贾斯坦邦和古吉拉特邦。

Murtaza Aliakbar
Would India have gone to civil war if it hadn't been partitioned in 1947?
We can only speculate what could have been.
Tell me this, was there a civil war when Left parties split up with Congress? Was there a civil war when Shiv Sena broke alliance with the ruling BJP? Is there a civil war when BJP and Congress disagree staunchly with each other? NO!
And given how partition has worked out for the subcontinent, would the civil war been less bloody? I think yes. But I think there'd not have been any civil war in the first place!
Partition of British India has caused more harm than good, and all this animosity, all this hate, all this violence is a legacy of three men-- Mountbatten, Nehru, and Jinnah. Creation of Pakistan was never a long term solution! It was short-sighted, and void of any vision! Muslims of Subcontinent paid a heavy price for this split-up, and continue to.
To know why a civil war was a distant possibility, let's rewind 80 years, and relive history a little bit--
The prime justification for Partition as cited by Congress (then largest party) was that a civil war was inevitable had the partition not happened. That's baseless. Mahatma Gandhi, Maulana Abul Kalam Azad, Badshah Khan could see that nothing like that would ever happen, and even if it did, it'd have not lasted long enough and wouldn't have def broken up the country.
Remember that Gandhi was still alive and so was Badshah Khan-- two men who had immense following, and were saviour-like to their followers. Jinnah himself said in an interview just after the formation of Pakistan in Karachi that he never thought "Pakistan" would be a reality in his life time.
The whole "civil war" thing came up when the protesters in Calcutta turned to violence on the Direct Action Day in 1946 (after Congress, led-by Nehru backed out of the Cabinet-plan). Muslim League in 1940 made it crystal clear that they didn't need a separate nation but a "federated" nation of India and Pakistan. Nehru was a socialist and wanted a "strong" central government (and seeing how that has turned out for India, I'd rather the Cabinet-mission had gone ahead with the plan, but we are talking about two highly egoistical people here-- Nehru and Jinnah), whilst Jinnah wanted a federated government with a weak centre. "Direct Action Day" was a result of lack of respect from Congress for their Muslim counterparts and the outcome scared them (as they saw Muslim league announce themselves as a strong opposition).

如果印度在1947年没有被分治，它会陷入内战吗？
我们只能就可能发生的事情进行推测：
告诉我，当左翼政党与国大党分裂时，是否发生了内战？湿婆神军党与执政的印度人民党决裂时是否发生了内战？当印度人民党和国大党意见相左时，是否会爆发内战？没有！
考虑到印度次大陆分治的结果，内战会不会少一些血腥?我想是会少一些血腥的。但我认为一开始就不会有内战了!
英属印度的分治造成了弊大于利，所有这些敌意，所有这些仇恨，这些暴力都是蒙巴顿，尼赫鲁和真纳这三个人的遗产。建立巴基斯坦从来都不是一个长期的解决方案!这是目光短浅，没有任何远见!次大陆的穆斯林为这次分裂付出了沉重的代价，而且还在继续。
要知道为什么内战是一个遥远的可能性，让我们回到80年前，重温一下历史
国大党（当时最大的政党）引用的分治的主要理由是，如果没有分治，内战是不可避免的。这是毫无根据的，圣雄甘地、毛拉纳·阿布·卡拉姆·阿扎德（Maulana Abul Kalam Azad）、巴德沙·汗都认为，这样的事情永远不会发生，即使发生了，也不会持续足够长的时间，也不会破坏这个国家。
请记住，甘地还活着，巴德沙·汗也活着——这两个人有着庞大的追随者，对他们的追随者来说，他们是救世主。真纳本人在巴基斯坦成立后不久在卡拉奇接受采访时说，他从未想过“巴基斯坦”会在他有生之年成为现实。
1946年的“直接行动日”(在尼赫鲁领导的国大党退出内阁计划之后)，加尔各答的抗议者转向暴力，整个“内战”的事情就出现了。1940年的穆斯林联盟明确表示，他们不需要一个单独的国家，而是要一个由印度和巴基斯坦组成的“联邦”国家。尼赫鲁是一个社会主义者，他想要一个“强大的”中央政府(看看印度的结果，我宁愿内阁代表团继续执行这个计划，但我们在这里谈论的是两个高度自私的人——尼赫鲁和真纳)，而真纳想要一个中央软弱的联邦政府。“直接行动日”是国大党对穆斯林同行缺乏尊重的结果，结果吓坏了他们（因为他们看到穆斯林联盟宣布自己是一个强大的反对派）。

There are many angles to what lead to creation of Pakistan, here are some political angles to it:
1. Muslim League leaders were feudal, and were against Congress' proposed land reforms.
2. The western powers that be were wary of such large chunk of Asia succumbing to the Soviet unx and Communism (remember that Nehru was a Socialist).
3. Congress wanted total-power (and boy does power corrupt)!
With Muslims figthing and getting their own country, one has to wonder why wasn't Congress fearful of the South Indians (they too were culturally different, and spoke different language) asking for a separate country? It's a bit unfortunate what happened.
Now, for reasons why there'd never be a civil war:
1. Jinnah, though galvanized Muslims in the subcontinent under one banner, a majority of them were against him and were aware of his political ambitions!
2.The Mullahs of United Provinces (Patna, Bihar, India, Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India, Delhi and such) were against creation of a Muslim State (although a majority did move to Pakistan after the partition).
3. Muslim League wasn't popular in Punjab (a province that is the largest (both area wise and population wise in the present day Pakistan). Muslim League couldn't even win an election there, let alone rule the state!
4. Muslim League wasn't popular in the present day Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan and FATA. The Muslims there were fully behind Badshah Khan and his non-violent ways (Its tragic that most terrorists and terrorist organizations have their roots in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan and FATA, Badshah Khan would be turning in his grave at the present state of affairs there). In fact, 49% of Muslims voted to be a part of India during a referendum.

导致巴基斯坦成立的原因有很多角度，以下是一些政治角度:
1、穆斯林联盟领导人是封建的，反对国大党提出的土地改革。
2、西方大国十分警惕如此大的亚洲地区会屈服于苏联和共产主义（记住尼赫鲁是社会主义者）。
3、国大党想要完全的权力（天哪，权力会导致腐败）！
随着穆斯林战斗并建立了自己的国家，人们不禁要问，为什么国大党不害怕南印度人(他们也有不同的文化，说不同的语言)要求一个独立的国家？发生的事情有点不幸。
这就是为什么永远不会发生内战的原因:
1、真纳虽然在一面旗帜下激励了次大陆的穆斯林，但他们中的大多数人都反对他，并意识到他的政治野心!
2、联合省（巴特那、比哈尔邦、印度、勒克瑙、北方邦、印度和德里等）的毛拉人反对建立穆斯林国家（尽管大多数人在分治后搬到了巴基斯坦）。
3、穆斯林联盟在旁遮普省不受欢迎(旁遮普省是当今巴基斯坦面积和人口最大的省份)。穆斯林联盟连选举都赢不了，更别说统治这个邦了!
4、在今天的开伯尔-普什图省、巴基斯坦和联邦直辖部落地区，穆斯林联盟并不受欢迎。那里的穆斯林完全支持巴德沙汗和他的非暴力方式(可悲的是，大多数恐怖分子和恐怖组织的根源都在开伯尔-普什图省、巴基斯坦和联邦直辖部落地区，按照目前的情况，巴德沙汗会在坟墓里翻来覆去的)。事实上，在全民公决中，49%的穆斯林投票支持成为印度的一部分。

5. The Khan of Kalat wanted to accede to India and made no secret of his desire to do so. Kalat, BTW, was the capital of Balochistan (Pakistani Province).
6. The Muslims that did support the Pakistan movement were majority Bengali Bengalis.. and Bengal could have asked for a separate state (not on basis of religion, but on basis of ethnicity) and that would have been a valid claim from their side. And Bengal was/is notoriously difficult to rule. They'd have revolted, but they are small minority compared to Muslims that wanted a peaceful co-existence.
7. The Muslims of United Provinces were also strongly supportive of Pakistan, and could have caused trouble along with the Bengalis, but no one can convince me that they were more powerful than the Indian army at that time! And with leaders of stature of Gandhi, Badshah Khan and Azad still alive (and with the Mullahs still on the side of the Congress), a civil war would have been reduced to mere rioting!
8. Jinnah was ailing, and was on brink of death.. Besides Liaqat Ali Khan, Muslim League had no real leaders. No one (look up the history books) was fit enough or charismatic enough to lead Muslims into an election, let alone a war!
Parition was never a necessity, but a convenient/rapid way to get rid of the Muslim elite that Congress could afford for short-term political gain (and vice versa for the Muslim League)!
(If anything Partition of British-India should have mobilized various separatist movements in the country which would have led to the inevitable Balkansitation of the State, but it never happened)!

5、卡拉特汗想要加入印度，并且毫不掩饰他的愿望。顺便说一句，卡拉特是俾路支省(巴基斯坦省)的首府。
6、支持巴基斯坦运动的穆斯林大多是孟加拉的孟加拉人。孟加拉本可以要求一个独立的国家(不是基于宗教，而是基于种族)，这对他们来说是一个有效的要求。孟加拉是出了名的难以统治。他们可能会起来反抗，但与希望和平共处的穆斯林相比，他们只是少数。
7、联合省的穆斯林也强坚定的支持巴基斯坦，他们本可以和孟加拉人一起制造麻烦，但没有人能让我相信他们当时比印度军队更强大！如果甘地、巴德沙汗和阿扎德这样的领袖人物还活着(毛拉们还站在国大党一边)，一场内战就会变成纯粹的暴乱!
8、真纳病得很重，濒临死亡。除了利亚卡特·阿里·汗(Liaqat Ali Khan)，穆斯林联盟没有真正的领导人。没有人(看看历史书)足够健康或有足够的魅力来领导穆斯林参加选举，更不用说战争了!
分治从来不是必要的，而是一种方便/快速的摆脱穆斯林精英的方法，国大党可以负担得起短期政治利益(反之亦然)!！
(如果有的话，英属印度的分治应该在该国动员各种分离主义运动，这将不可避免地导致国家的巴尔干化，但这从未发生过)!

Milind Ravindranath
What would the Indian Subcontinent be like today had the partition been averted?
I'm new to answering complex questions in this field, but I'll try. Please help me edit it in case it's not accurate.
The geopolitics of Asia would be significantly different.
Hindustan (as I think it would have been called) would still be the world's 7th largest country. But with a population of 1.4 billion people, by around 2000 we would be the most populous nation.
The delta areas of both Ganga-Brahmaputra as well as Indus river systems would be available, making us the largest producer of rice and a number of crops, which we are in some crops already.
Who would our new neighbors have been? Instead of Pakistan, we would have had Afghanistan and Iran. What are their impacts?
Afghanistan has always been independent, with very little British occupation. Indeed a large part of Indian history is shaped by Afghan conquerors. Due to our greater tolerance and peace loving nature, we would have had greater success on its border issue than the current situation, not that we wouldn't have had any problems...
Afghanistan is strategically EXTREMELY important to us, both in reality and this scenario. This is both because it shares a border with the USSR, as well as the possibility of terrorist activity.

如果分治得以避免，今天的印度次大陆会是什么样子？
在回答这个领域的复杂问题方面我还是个新手，但我会试一试。如果不准确，请帮我编辑一下。
亚洲的地缘政治将大不相同。
印度斯坦（我认为它会被称为）仍然是世界第七大国家。但到2000年左右，我们就有14亿人口，并成为当时人口最多的国家。
恒河-雅鲁藏布江和印度河流域的三角洲地区都将可用，使我们成为最大的水稻和多种作物生产国，我们已经在种植一些作物。
我们的新邻居会是谁？会是阿富汗和伊朗，而不是巴基斯坦。它们的影响是什么？
阿富汗一直是独立的，几乎没有被英国占领。事实上，印度历史的很大一部分是由阿富汗征服者塑造的。由于我们更宽容和热爱和平的天性，我们在边境问题上会比目前的局势取得更大的成功，但这并不是说我们就不会有任何问题。
无论是在现实中还是在这种情况下，阿富汗对我们来说都具有极其重要的战略意义。这既是因为它与苏联接壤，也是因为恐怖活动的可能性。

Until 1973 there was a stable rule in Afghanistan, under the reign of Zahir Shah. As far as I know the coup that happened, as well as the one in 1978 didn't have any Pakistani or US involvement. The result of the communist party coming to power wasn't liked by the USA.
Due to the common border with the USSR, India and USSR would have pushed hard for a favourable trade route. To that end, R&AW would have carried out its signature secret moves, ushering more stability in the region. As I imagine, the coup of 1978 MAY NOT have taken place. The democratic regime would have stayed, because India would NOT have wanted USA to feel threatened by a communist regime so close to Iran ( = oil).
This would have also resulted in friendly ties with the -stans, especially Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, the immediate neighbours of Afghanistan.
Trade with the USSR would have begun over land, leading to some development in the region, both in NorthWestFrontierProvince, as well as the trade route through Afghan territory.
Pakistan had border issues with Afghans, because the line was drawn around a century before Pakistan was formed. India being a much more persuasive country, would have settled on some generous agreement with Afghans, resulting in even greater stability.
In short, the USSR invasion of Afghanistan would NOT have happened.
Being a direct neighbour of Iran, we would have had a LOT of trade, resulting in significant political influence. Trade of oil over land would have made us more prosperous. Iran also would have been better off having a sympathetic ally, and would have together with Hindustan and USSR, finally managed to bring peace to Afghanistan.

直到1973年，在查希尔·沙阿(Zahir Shah)的统治下，阿富汗一直保持着稳定的统治。据我所知，发生的政变以及1978年的政变，巴基斯坦或美国完全没有参与，共产党执政不受美国的欢迎。
由于与苏联的共同边界，印度和苏联将努力推动有利的贸易路线。为此，印度研究分析处（R＆AW）将采取其标志性的秘密行动，为该地区带来更多的稳定。正如我想象的那样，1978年的政变可能不会发生。民主政权会留下来，因为印度不希望美国对一个与伊朗（代表了石油）关系如此密切的共产主义政权感到威胁。
这也将导致与斯坦国家的友好关系，特别是与阿富汗的近邻乌兹别克斯坦和塔吉克斯坦的友好关系。
与苏联的贸易将在陆地上开始，从而导致该地区的一些发展，包括西北边境省，以及通过阿富汗领土的贸易路线。
巴基斯坦与阿富汗人之间存在边界问题，因为这条线是在巴基斯坦成立前一个世纪左右划定的。印度是一个更有说服力的国家，本可以与阿富汗人达成一些慷慨的协议，从而实现更大的稳定。
简而言之，苏联入侵阿富汗是不会发生的。
作为伊朗的直接邻国，我们本可以进行大量贸易，从而产生重大的政治影响。在陆地上进行石油贸易会使我们更加繁荣。伊朗如果有一个富有同情心的盟友也会更好，它会与印度斯坦和苏联一起，最终成功地为阿富汗带来和平。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

In short, 9/11 and subsequent Afghanistan invasion would NOT have happened.
The US-oriented Shah of Iran, which the US had to install in order to keep oil safe, might NOT have had to do that, because of the presence of India which would pressure it in milder ways, yet enough to keep the US happy.
Nevertheless the Iran-Iraq war was inevitable and would have happened anyway. India would have sided with Iran in some way, creating problems with world powers. However, no one would have been able to ignore Hindustan, and at worst, we would have no change in relations.
As you can all see, there''s a pattern. India is completely unique in its geopolitical relations.
As the world''s largest muslim country, YET being secular, means that all muslim countries, including Saudi Arabia, would have no choice but to take Hindustan seriously. Enormous "soft power"
India had great ties with USSR and Russia all through, and that would have been much stronger in this scenario.
Yet, because it''s a market driven economy, and not in bed with the Communists, it would have endeared the USA.
Of course, this means China would be a greater threat, due to rising power of Hindustan, at least geopolitically. Economically, they would be still ages ahead of us.
After the breakup of the USSR, friendly relations with the -stans and Russia would make land trade viable. All regions except East Asia would be more peaceful. Iraq was destined to land in soup though, from what I can understand.

简言之，9/11和随后的入侵阿富汗事件不会发生。
美国为了确保石油安全，美国不得不扶植伊朗国王让其唯美国马首是瞻，因为印度的存在会以温和的方式向其施压，但也足以让美国满意。
尽管如此，两伊战争是不可避免的，而且无论如何都会发生。印度会在某种程度上站在伊朗一边，给世界大国制造问题。然而，没有人能够忽视印度斯坦，在最坏的情况下，我们的关系不会发生变化。
正如你们所看到的，这是有规律的。印度在地缘政治关系上完全是独一无二的。
作为世界上最大的穆斯林国家，然而它是世俗的，这意味着包括沙特阿拉伯在内的所有穆斯林国家除了认真对待印度斯坦之外别无选择——印度具备的巨大的“软实力”
印度一直与苏联和俄罗斯保持着良好的关系，在这种情况下，这种关系会更加牢固。
然而，因为它是一个市场驱动的经济体，而不会与GCD搅在一起去，所以它会受到美国的垂爱。
当然，这意味着中国将是一个更大的WX，因为印度斯坦的力量正在上升，至少在地缘政治上是这样。在经济上，中国仍将领先我们很多年。
苏联解体后，与斯坦国家和俄罗斯的友好关系将使陆地贸易变得可行。除东亚以外的所有地区都将更加和平。但在我看来，伊拉克注定会陷入困境。

Prashant
Does Pakistan regret their partition from India?
Most of the answers here from Pakistan claim that they won a country for themselves and are patting themselves on the back for it.
If only they knew their potential! Historically muslims were ruling large parts of India. From being unchallenged rulers of Indian subcontinent in the year 1700 to running scared to the two corners of the the subcontinent(literally one corner in east and another in west) in 1947, muslim community has gone so far down that they don't even recognise their potential anymore. The Hindus should thank two particular muslim gentlemen — aurangazeb and jinnah for this Hindu emancipation.
Let us look at achievement of jinnah. If he had not demanded Pakistan the combined population of India would have been about 1.8B of which about 0.6B (including Bangladesh) would have been muslim. If things had gone normally this combined nation would have become a democracy with a muslim vote bank of 33 percent. This community would have been the king makers just like good old days-this time by the weight of numbers. Most Pakistanis have not lived in a multi religious society will not be able to immediately recognise this but many studies have shown that muslim votes in India are generally not fragmented like the other communities and can be a force multiplier. In mixed neighborhood any body they support would automatically win. Atleast 35–40 percent of the seats in parliament would automatically be taken by muslim league + allies all the time. Forget Modi, india as a whole would look much more Islamic. Any right wing Hindu politics would be restricted to certain fringe areas.

巴基斯坦后悔与印度分治吗？
巴基斯坦的大多数回答都声称，他们为自己赢得了一个国家，并为此而自鸣得意。
要是他们知道自己的潜力就好了！历史上，穆斯林统治着印度的大部分地区。从1700年成为印度次大陆无可匹敌的统治者，到1947年因害怕而跑到次大陆的两个角落（实际上是东部的一个角落和西部的另一个角落），穆斯林社区已经堕落到他们甚至不再意识到自己的潜力。印度教徒应该感谢两位特别的穆斯林先生——奥朗则布和真纳，他们为印度的解放做出了贡献。
让我们看看真纳的成就。如果他没有要求巴基斯坦的话，印度的总人口将约为18亿，其中约6亿（包括孟加拉国）将是穆斯林。如果一切正常，这个合并后的国家将成为一个拥有33%穆斯林选票的民主国家。这一次，凭借数量的优势，这个社群将像过去一样成为国王的制造者。大多数没有生活在多宗教社会的巴基斯坦人无法立即认识到这一点，但许多研究表明，印度的穆斯林选票通常不像其他社区那样分散，其实是可以成为力量倍增器的。在混合社群，他们支持的任何团体都会自动获胜。至少35 - 40%的议会席位会自动被穆斯林联盟和盟友占据。忘了莫迪吧，整个印度看起来会更加伊斯兰。任何右翼印度教政治都将被限制在某些边缘地区。

Instead jinnah ensured that subcontinent muslim strength is divided into two and now three (although nobody could have foreseen Bangladesh back then)equal parts. More importantly thanks to Jinnah making it a Hindu Muslim issue, the entire non muslim population of subcontinent has aggregated into one political entity called India. This is the first time in the last 1500 years that Marathas, Rajputs, jats, Sikhs, Bengalis, South Indian are a single political entity and considers islamic Pakistan as enemy. And to top it all, educated, enlightened muslims have run away to pakistan or Bangladesh leaving behind a large mass of leaderless vulnerable uneducated muslim population who are clueless. Perfect for the rise of Hindu right wing.
At times I wonder if jinnah really thought through his demand. I feel he would not have been happy with the state of the affairs that his decisions and actions have effected. Not that he would not have wanted partition even in hindsight but even he would have agreed that he should have gone about it differently.

相反，真纳确保了次大陆的穆斯林力量被分成两部分，现在是三部分（尽管当时没有人能预见到孟加拉国）。更重要的是，由于真纳将其作为印度教-穆斯林问题，整个次大陆的所有非穆斯林人口聚集成一个政治实体，叫做印度。这是1500年来马拉地人、拉杰普特人、贾特人、锡克教徒、孟加拉人、南印度人第一次成为一个政治实体，并将伊斯兰巴基斯坦视为敌人。最重要的是，受过教育、开明的穆斯林逃到了巴基斯坦或孟加拉国，留下了大量没有领导、脆弱、没有受过教育、一无所知的穆斯林人口，非常适合印度教右翼的崛起。
有时我想知道真纳是否真的考虑过他的要求。我觉得他不会对他的决定和行动所造成的事态感到满意。即使事后看来，并不是说他不希望分治，但即使是他也会赞同这个的——他原本应该采取不同的做法。