印度在未来成为中国的强劲对手，并在技术和商业领域（如智能手机、计算机、清洁技术、机器人、机械等）对中国采用其对美国、欧洲、日本和韩国的方式，这种做法的前景如何呢？

2023-06-11 wangniannian 15866 19 8 收藏纠错&举报

译文简介

印度与其将发展目标瞄准中国，还不如放稳脚步，考虑自己国内的问题，比如清理圣洁的恒河！

正文翻译

What is the prospect of India becoming a fierce competitor to China in the future and did to China what China did to USA, Europe, Japan and S. Korea in the fields of technology and business (smartphone, computer, clean tech, robotic, machinery etc)?

印度在未来成为中国的强劲对手，并在技术和商业领域（如智能手机、计算机、清洁技术、机器人、机械等）对中国采用其对美国、欧洲、日本和韩国的方式，这种做法的前景如何呢？

原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

评论翻译

McDonald’s entered the Chinese and Indian markets in 1990 and 1996 respectively. Both are 1.4 billion people markets, but Mcdonald’s has 10x the number of restaurants in mainland China today, compared to India.

麦当劳是分别于1990年和1996年进入中国市场和印度市场的。中国和印度都拥有着十四亿人口的劳动力市场。但是，和印度相比，如今的麦当劳在中国大陆的餐厅数量是在印度餐厅数量的10倍之多。

The Germans sell more cars in China than in all of Europe combined, and still have 20 percent of the Chinese market, just like the Japanese. That’s 5 million vehicles a year, each. These juggernauts don’t do anywhere near the same business in India. Same 1.4 billion market, but Ford exited the Indian market recently.

德国人在中国销售的汽车总量比整个欧洲销量的总和还要多，而且德国汽车在中国市场的占有率才只有20%，就像在日本市场占有情况一样。即便如此每年也有500万辆汽车销量。但是，这些汽车行业的霸主在印度的业务量远远达不到这个水平。同样是14亿市场，福特汽车最近选择了退出印度市场。

India is more youthful, the median age being 28.7 vs. 38.4 for China. Yet the Indian workforce lags the China by 300+m, or two entire American workforces, the world’s third largest. India exports labor instead. It provides the world’s largest migrant labor pool that repatriate >3 percent of Indian GDP annually.

印度人口更加年轻化，劳动力年龄的中位数为28.7岁，而中国则是38.4岁。然而，印度有三亿多的劳动力质量落后于中国，这相当于两个美国的劳动力，世界第三大劳动力。但与之相反的是，印度是劳动力输出国。它也是世界上最大的移民劳动力提供国，这些每年被遣返的劳动力所创造的价值能占到印度GDP的3%以上。

This is the 40-year evolution of the Rupee (Orange) vs. the Yuan (Blue), measured against the USD. Post-financial crisis, the buying power diverged, despite India preceding China’s WTO accession. The Rupee has undergone unending duation for more than 7 decades, with no end in sight. India has a perennial capital account problem, despite growing into a 3 trillion dollar economy.

这是卢比（橙色）与人民币（蓝色）40年的演变，以美元为标准。尽管印度先于中国加入世贸组织，但是因为金融危机的影响，卢比购买力减弱。卢比进入了超过70年的无休止的贬值时期，而且看不到尽头。印度虽然已经发展成为一个3万亿美元的经济体，但是它长期存在着资金账户问题。

India has failed to attract the world because the foreigner finds it difficult to make money in India. Indian growth has been largely driven by currency duation, just like Vietnam and others enjoying a free ride courtesy of the first world’s “currency manipulation” accusations against the yuan, which is patently absurd.

印度未能吸引世界，是因为外国人发现在印度很难赚钱。印度经济的增长在很大程度上是由货币贬值推动的，就像越南和其他国家在第一世界国家里通过指责人民币 "操控货币 "从而享受免费的待遇一样，而这显然是荒谬的！

India will find it way more difficult competing with China on an equal footing. When the narrative of the “Indian threat” emerges due in part to the proliferation of Indian faces among the elites of Western public life, India will face far stiffer tests. And just like covid, holes will be exploited. Discrimination knows no bounds.

印度将发现自己要想与中国公平竞争非常困难。当 "印度威胁 "的说法出现时（部分原因是印度人的面孔在西方公共生活精英中的大量出现），印度将面临更严峻的考验。就像covid（新冠病毒）一样，漏洞将被利用。而歧视是无止境的！

For now, the prospect of India emerging as a “do china in” comeuppance is dim. What emerges from the cauldron of Chinese business is world class, such as tik tok, alibaba, huawei and CSCEC. We can’t say the same of Indian business.

目前，印度通过效仿中国经济手段来针对中国的这种做法可能很难奏效。从中国商业大锅里涌现出来的都是世界级的企业，比如抖音、阿里巴巴、华为和CSCEC。我们无法确定印度的商业也能做到这个程度。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

I will sit up and pay attention when the Rupee reverses 7 decades (that’s almost one human lifetime) of duation. Or business leaders recommending India as the “next China” and “streets lined with gold”, rather than the nodding of reluctant devotees of political rhetoric.

当卢比扭转了70年（这几乎是人的一生）的贬值时，我会坐起来关注。或者商业领袖将印度形容为 "下一个中国 "和 "街道上铺满黄金"，而不是政客们勉强点头认可时，我也会重视印度。

Otherwise, India will be mired in the middle income trap as China steps into high income.

否则，随着中国步入高收入，印度将陷入中等收入的陷阱。

“Cheap” is no longer the calling card it once was, because the Chinese bled it dry with speed, quality and execution. For example, masks weren’t sourced from India over the covid pandemic, and India was unable to deliver vaccines through 2021, despite technology transfer from the west.

"廉价 "不再是中国商品的名片，因为中国人用速度、质量和执行力把它榨干了。例如，在新冠期间，口罩并非是从印度采购的，即便是有西方的技术转让，印度也无法在2021年之前提供疫苗。

Good luck.

祝好运！

I'd say keep the feet planted, and think domestic, like cleaning up the holy river ganges, before shooting for the moon and aiming at China.

我想说的是，印度将发展目标投向月球和瞄准中国之前，应先把脚步放稳，考虑自己国内问题，比如清理圣洁的恒河。

You absolutely correct

你完全正确

印度中国对技术 商业领域 美国欧洲日本韩国

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