你认为西方世界（包括俄罗斯，而不仅仅是北约集团）正在衰落吗？像中国和印度这样的东方大国会超越它吗？
Do you think that the Western World (including Russia, not just the NATO bloc) is on the decline? Will Eastern powers like China and India surpass it?
译文简介
西方大国正在停滞不前，然而像印度或中国这样的国家需要很长一段时间（几十年）才能在军事和生活水平上超过他们。
正文翻译
Do you think that the Western World (including Russia, not just the NATO bloc) is on the decline? Will Eastern powers like China and India surpass it?
你认为西方世界（包括俄罗斯，而不仅仅是北约集团）正在衰落吗？像中国和印度这样的东方大国会超越它吗？
评论翻译
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Sakhalin
Western powers are stagnating, however it will take a long time (decades) for countries like India or China to surpass them both millitary and in standards of living.
萨哈林
西方大国正在停滞不前，然而像印度或中国这样的国家需要很长一段时间（几十年）才能在军事和生活水平上超过他们。
OP
But it’s basically inevitable given enough time, right? Due to birth rates and demographics and what not
但只要有足够的时间，这基本上是不可避免的，对吗？由于出生率和人口趋势和其他之类的原因
Nothing is inevitable. Birth rate means nothing if a country cannot harness it properly. If governments cannot develop well enough a high birth rate is detrimental to the country.
For example India has high birth rate, natural resources, fairly rich and a very educated population that loves their country but it's educated work force leaves the country to work in Western countries because it's government cannot provide for them at home. In theory India should already have surpassed the West but in reality it cannot.
没有什么是不可避免的。如果一个国家不能很好地驾驭出生率，那么出生率就毫无意义。如果政府不能很好地发展，高出生率对国家是不利的。
例如，印度拥有高出生率、自然资源、相当富裕和受过良好教育的人口，他们热爱自己的国家，但它受过教育的劳动力却离开这个国家到西方国家工作，因为它的政府不能为他们在国内提供服务。从理论上讲，印度理应已经超过了西方国家，但实际上它却没有。
OP
That might be true now especially for countries like Pakistan, but India is still developing rather fast now, no? They’ve consistently had positive GDP growth higher than that of western nations. It’s only a matter of time before their brain drain slows down like it did with China’s, and by that time the Western World will be running lower on imported labour, even the so-called “country of immigrants“.
现在可能确实如此，尤其是对于像巴基斯坦这样的国家来说，但印度现在的发展速度还是相当快的，不是吗？他们的 GDP 正增长一直高于西方国家。他们的人才流失像中国那样放缓只是时间问题，到那时西方世界对进口劳动力的需求将减少，即使是所谓的“移民国家”。
Yes India is developing fast. Fast enough that it already should have overtaken the US but it has not. In reality it is being held back by extreme corruption in part due to its caste system. Its environmental health, opportunities and standard of living is extremely low. If it can fix its corruption problem and invest in its people then it would be a world power. But this will be extremely hard and is far from inevitable.
China brain drain has not slowed down. For example the number chinese immigrants (the US accepts the most educated or wealthy only) into the US in 1980 was roughly 600,000 while in 2021 it was roughly 2 million. It slowed due to covid but is on its way back up. China again suffers similar issues as India with corruption lowering the opportunities and standard of living of the people.
是的，印度正在快速发展。如果速度足够快，它应该已经超过了美国，但它没有。事实上，它正受到极端腐败的阻碍，部分原因在于其种姓制度。它的环境健康、机会和生活水平极低。如果它能解决腐败问题并投资于人民，那么它将成为世界强国。但这将非常困难，而且远非理所应当。
中国人才流失并未放缓。例如，1980 年进入美国的中国移民（美国只接受受教育程度最高或最富有的人）约为 ** 万人，而 2021 年约为**万人。它由于 covid 而减慢，但正在恢复。中国再次遭遇与印度类似的问题，FB降低了人民的机会和生活水平。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
For now I don't really see any challange to the US world order. Remember that many empires like the Romans or Chinese in the past had dominance for hundreds or thousands of years. The US dominance is still very young. Only since 1945.
西方世界受到美国的拖累，美国很可能永远不会缺少进口劳动力，因为它可以从南美吸收尽可能多的劳动力来稳定其低出生率。美国的体制是围绕其移民人口的快速整合而建立的。你必须融入美国社会及其价值观，这并不是一种你可以选的选择，而是社会都是围绕这个概念建立的。这样墨西哥工人或印度工人将在 10 年后认为自己是美国人。可以说美国很会“偷”别国的人。
就目前而言，我真的看不到对美国世界秩序的任何挑战。请记住，过去有许多帝国，如罗马人或中国人的帝国，统治了数百年或数千年。美国的主导地位还很年轻。仅自 1945 年以来。
Who sets the requirements for when India should have overtaken the US? In 1989 its GDP PPP was 0,155 that of the US, right now it's at about half. Especially if the US continues to suffer the consequences of the post-Covid slowdown, it is not unreasonable that India will overtake the US in the 2030s in absolute terms.
谁规定了印度何时理应超过美国的要求？1989年它的GDP购买力平价是美国的 0.155，现在大约是美国的一半。尤其是如果美国继续遭受新冠后经济放缓的影响，印度将在 2030 年代在绝对值上超过美国也不是不无可能。
"A very educated population".
Are you freaking kidding me?
You are have no idea about India if you think that. The vast majority is still living in poverty and higher education is extremely hard to access for non-wealthy people.
“受过良好教育的人口”。
你在开玩笑吗？
如果你这么想，你就对印度一无所知。绝大多数人仍然生活在贫困之中，非富裕人群极难获得高等教育。
Sakhalin
Maybe yeah, if all things go well and they don't get into some big war that will throw them behind.
萨哈林
“但如果有足够的时间，这基本上是不可避免的，对吧？”
也许是的，如果一切顺利并且他们没有卷入一场将他们抛在后面的大战。
OP
As a Westerner yourself how does that make you feel?
作为一个西方人，你自己有什么感受？
Sakhalin
Well I don't like the term Westerner for myself since it's mostly used to refer to US/EU. As a European (geographically, culturally speaking) I don't see it as a problem. Those countries can be used as valuable allies and trading partners in the future, considering the rising tensions with US and their allies. If they begin to pose a threat to Russia for wherever resson, we should adjust our response accordingly. In other words I don't feel threatened militarily or culturally, however their rise and foreign policy should be carefully observed and reacted to accordingly.
萨哈林
好吧，我自己不喜欢西方人这个词，因为它主要用来指代美国/欧盟。作为一个欧洲人（从地理上、文化上来说），我不认为这是一个问题。考虑到与美国及其盟友的紧张关系不断加剧，这些国家在未来可以作为宝贵的盟友和贸易伙伴。如果他们开始对俄罗斯构成威胁，我们应该相应地调整我们的反应。换句话说，我不觉得在军事上或文化上受到威胁，但是应该仔细观察他们的崛起和外交政策并做出相应的反应。
Climate change will make it very hard for them to ever surpass the wealth that western countries have accumulated. We’re ALL circling the drain together. Unless we have some miraculous scientific breakthroughs. Which is possible but unlikely.
气候变化将使他们很难超越西方国家积累的财富。我们都在面临同样的困境。除非我们有一些神奇的科学突破。这是可能的，但可能性不大。
Birth rates favor the United states due to high immigration
由于高移民率，出生率有利于美国
You are delusional if you think that.
Both India and China are on heavy decline when it comes to birthrates. Also quality of live in India and China is so much lower than most western countries and that will soon enough make a huge impact.
如果你这么想，你就是在妄想。
印度和中国的出生率都在大幅下降。印度和中国的生活质量也远低于大多数西方国家，这很快就会产生巨大影响。
Kaluga
is Russia a part of the Western world? Thank you, I haven't heard this for a loooong time
卡卢加
俄罗斯是西方世界的一部分吗？谢谢，好久没听过了
Part of the western world when they want you to fight China, ugro finnic eastern barbarians when they want to fight you. We brazilians also go from a beautiful and rich culture to stinky dirty latinos when not done as told)
当他们想要你与中国开战时，你就是西方世界的一部分；当他们想与你开战时，你就是丑陋的东方野蛮人。视情况，我们巴西人也会从一个美丽而丰富的文化大国变成臭气熏天的肮脏的拉丁美洲人（如果没有按照他们的要求去做的话）
Kaluga
Lol, bro. Can I hug you?
卡卢加
哈哈哈，兄弟。我可以抱你么？
Конечно! In brazil you don't need to ask we have no concept of personal space)))
当然！在巴西你不需要问，我们没有个人空间的概念）））
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Primorsky Krai
Oh, man! So familiar!
普里莫尔斯基边疆区
“当他们想要你与中国开战时......”
天啊！好熟悉！
OP
I’m actually surprised to meet a pro-Russian brazilian here lol. From what I’m aware majority of Brazilians are still very much pro-U.S. or at least ”both sides are shit” type of view.
我真的很惊讶在这里遇到一个亲俄罗斯的巴西人哈哈。据我所知，大多数巴西人仍然非常亲美。或者至少是“双方都是狗屎”的观点。
Very much 50/50. The vast majority of brazilians approved Lula's instance of not sending ammo to Ukraine, for example. Most people are in the "both sides are shit" regarding this particular topic.
Regarding NATO and the political west, again is very divided. A lot of brazilians seek BRICS as the best option for our development, the US has a huge negative conotation for staging and backing our military dictatorship in 1964 - 1985. A lot of people are anti NATO specifically, and we have in mind it that whenever you guys up there need water, whoever is our president will become an evil dictator, we will become dirty stinky latinos and receive some freedom.
But I hope you fuckers bring Napalm, because this jungle is a bit bigger than Vietnam)
两者差不多是50/50。举个例子，绝大多数巴西人赞成卢拉不向乌克兰运送弹药。对于这个特定话题，大多数人都处于“双方都是狗屎”的状态。
关于对北约和政治西方的看法，同样也是非常分裂的。许多巴西人寻求金砖国家作为我们发展的最佳选择，美国在 1964 年至 1985 年实施和支持我们的军事独裁统治产生了巨大的负面情绪。很多人特别反对北约，我们认为，只要你们需要水，那无论我们的总统是谁，他都会成为你们口中邪恶的独裁者，我们就都会是肮脏的臭气熏天的拉丁美洲人，并需要获得一些自由。
但我希望你们这些混蛋带上凝固汽油弹，因为这个丛林比越南大一点）
OP
Do many people deny that Russia is part of the Western World? I know there are some extreme nationalists, but I think the majority would agree that you guys are a part of Western Civilisation. Just not a part of the “western“ political bloc
有很多人否认俄罗斯是西方世界的一部分吗？我知道有一些极端的民族主义者这么想，但我认为大多数人会同意你们是西方文明的一部分。只是不属于“西方”政治集团
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Moscow City
The difficulty in understanding the Russian is that we do not take cognizance of the fact that he is not a European but an Asiatic and therefore thinks deviously. We can no more understand a Russian than a Chinaman or a Japanese and, from what I have seen of them, I have no particular desire to understand them except to ascertain how much lead or iron it takes to kill them. In addition to his other amiable characteristics, the Russian has no regard for human life and is an all out son of bitch, a barbarian and a chronic drunk.
That's from one of America's national heroes, George Patton.
Another example would be to see the reaction of r/Europe when pictures of Lakhta center are posted, especially if it has a caption along the lines of "the tallest building in Europe". Quite a few "but that's not in Europe, Russia is an Asian country" and other statements intended to disassociate Russia.
Napoleon's "Asiatic hordes" also comes to mind, and if you look for the earliest expressions of such sentiment you will find that the Polish king Sigismund I spent quite a bit of effort trying to convince European rulers that the Muscovites aren't even Christians, but barbarians colluding with the Mongols, the Tatars, and the Turks to bring down the Christian world.
Doesn't help that a couple centuries prior to that the Livonian branch of the German Teutonic order waged a crusade against Russia, which was already quite firmly Orthodox Christian at the time.
莫斯科市
“理解俄国人的困难之处在于，我们没有认识到，他不是欧洲人，而是亚洲人，因此思维方式很狡猾。我们不能像理解中国人或日本人那样理解俄罗斯人，而且根据我对他们的观察，除了确定需要多少铅或铁才能杀死他们之外，我没有特别的意愿想去理解他们。除了某些还算可取的特点外，俄罗斯人罔顾人命，是个不折不扣的狗娘养的野蛮人和长期酗酒的酒鬼。”
以上言论来自美国的民族英雄之一乔治·巴顿
另一个例子是看看在 r/Europe 板块发布拉赫塔中心的照片时那里的人的反应，特别是如果它的标题是“欧洲最高的建筑”。很快就会出现不少“但那不是欧洲，俄罗斯是亚洲国家”等意在与俄罗斯划清界限的言论。
拿破仑评论俄罗斯是“亚洲部落”也出现在脑海中，如果你寻找这种情绪的最早表达，你会发现波兰国王西吉斯蒙德一世花了相当多的精力，试图说服欧洲统治者，莫斯科人甚至不是基督徒，而是与蒙古人、鞑靼人和土耳其人勾结的野蛮人，要打倒基督教世界。
在此之前几个世纪，德国条顿骑士团的利沃尼亚分支发动了一场针对俄罗斯的十字军东征，而当时俄罗斯已经是相当坚定的东正教徒了。
OP
Those guys are from a long time ago bro, the vast majority of “westerners“ do not think this way about Russians, they see Russians as a European people. In the U.S. Irish were once also not deemed as white or as lesser whites, that’s not relevant to how Irish are seen today.
这些都是老黄历了兄弟，绝大多数“西方人”不这样看待俄罗斯人，他们认为俄罗斯人是欧洲人。在美国，爱尔兰人曾经也不被视为白人或低等白人，这与今天人们对爱尔兰人的看法无关。
Did you read past first line?
你读过了第一行了吗？
OP
In my personal experience most people consider Russia to be part of Western Civilization. Of course to verify your or mine claim you would have to do a census in Europe to see what people think as a whole, but you can’t take the opinion on that sub as representative of European’s opinions since it’s a bit of nationalist echo chamber where extremist opinions scream loudest. Compare yourself to the Chinese, the Indians, the Iranians, or the Nigerians and you will find that the people you call Westerners are very very similar to you
以我个人的经验，大多数人认为俄罗斯是西方文明的一部分。当然，要验证你或我的说法，你必须在欧洲做一次人口普查，看看人们的整体想法，但你不能把那个板块的意见代表整个欧洲的意见，因为它有点像是民族主义的回音室是极端主义意见叫声最大的地方。将自己与中国人、印度人、伊朗人或尼日利亚人进行比较，你会发现你所说的西方人与你们非常相似
No. I will not let you isolate me from Chinese, the Indians, the Iranians, the Nigerians or any other human with your ficticious construct of Western "civilization".
But you can enjoy company westerners such as Aleksandrs Kiršteins(https://twitter.com/akirstei/status/1595538039845036048) or Florence Gaub(https://twitter.com/FlorenceGaub/status/1514152917556727813)
我不会让你用你虚构的西方“文明”这个结构将我们与中国人、印度人、伊朗人、尼日利亚人或任何其他人隔离来。
但你可以享受你们西方人的陪伴，如亚历山大-基尔斯坦斯（译注：拉脱维亚议员）
或佛罗伦萨-高布（译注：法德研究人员）
feelgood_alex
Primorsky Krai
As Russian I agree with this statement. But for last 15-20 western world some how rejected us. It’s like cool guys don’t want to talk with loser. I think Russia was a sort of loser-country after Soviet unx collapsed. But nowadays Russia is very strong but west world still doesn’t think that we are equal partners. This is how I see the reason of modern separation between Russia and West. So modern Russia is culturally is part of west but not in political alliance with any of it’s country
普里莫尔斯基边疆区
“但我认为大多数人会同意你们是西方文明的一部分。只是不属于西方政治集团”
作为俄罗斯人，我同意这种说法。但在过去的 15-20 年间，西方世界不知为何拒绝了我们。就像帅哥不想和失败者说话一样。我认为俄罗斯在苏联解体后是一个失败的国家。但现在俄罗斯很强大，但西方世界仍然不认为我们是平等的伙伴。这就是我如何看待现代俄罗斯与西方分离的原因。因此，现代俄罗斯在文化上是西方的一部分，但与任何国家都没有政治上的联盟关系。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Rostov
Every nation gets a golden age sooner or later. Every nation learns to speak of it in the past tense eventually.
罗斯托夫
每个国家迟早都会迎来黄金时代。每个国家最终都会学会用过去时来谈论自身的那个时代。
Will surpass? By PPP metrics BRICS GDP is already bigger than G7. For economics it's over, the world is already multipolar. But our true barrier now is political: can we really unite, be more than an acronym?.
会不会超越？按购买力平价衡量，金砖国家的 GDP 已经超过七国集团。对于经济学来说，比赛结束了，世界已经是多极的。但我们现在真正的障碍是政治上的：我们真的可以团结起来，而不仅仅是一个首字母缩略词吗？
Moscow City
In BRICS, Russia and Brazil are part of the Western world. South Africa is ambiguous (Afrikaners are part of it, the Africans are not).
莫斯科市
在金砖国家，俄罗斯和巴西属于西方世界。南非是模棱两可的（南非白人是其中的一部分，非洲人不是）。
US GDP is higher than China, Japan GDP is higher than India, France GDP is higher than Russia, German GDP is higher than Brazil.
Yet you claim, BRICS GDP is higher than the G7, how does that math work? where did you get your numbers?
List of countries, ranked by GDP:
https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/gdp-by-country/
美国GDP比中国高，日本GDP比印度高，法国GDP比俄罗斯高，德国GDP比巴西高。
然而你却声称，金砖国家的GDP高于七国集团，这是怎么算的？你的数字是怎么来的？
国家名单，按GDP排名：
WorstBrazilian
Yeah you are right. It was by PPP metrics. Corrected.
Remember that not doing PPP is absurd, considering the US relies on an expensive dollar to survive while China does everything it can to keep their currency low in the international market. By PPP metrics (and also by the productive sector) China's GDP can swallow the US and Germany at the same time.
是的，你是对的。这是按购买力平价指标计算的。我已经纠正了。
请记住，不算购买力平价是荒谬的，考虑到美国依靠昂贵的美元生存，而中国则尽其所能保持其货币在国际市场上的低价。按购买力平价指标（以及生产部门），中国的GDP可以同时吞掉美国和德国。
Idk if they will surpass, but they definitely have a chance rn
不知道他们是否会超越，但他们肯定有机会
The majority of people everywhere live pay check to pay check, or has seen their income stagnate while cost of living expenses steadily rising. For the many, the quality of life is decreasing every year.
世界各地的大多数人都靠寅吃卯粮过日子，或者发现他们的收入停滞不前，而生活费用却在稳步上升。对于许多人来说，生活质量每年都在下降。
OP
I think in most third world countries the quality of life is improving. At least in China I have heard it is like this and people now having much more buying power than before.
我认为大多数第三世界国家的生活质量正在提高。至少在中国我听说是这样的，人们现在的购买力比以前强多了。
Saint Petersburg
Depends on the definition of decline. Demographically, culturally, scuentifically, economically, in terms of productive population or intellectual population... There are so many factors.
圣彼得堡
取决于衰退的定义。人口、文化、科学、经济、生产人口或受教育人口……有太多因素。
My opinion is read only
Russia is not a part of western world. Western world strictly means NATO/EU, and Russia is not part of them.
The western world is in decline, but it is a slow process that can take decades.
Emergence of strong eastern block seems likely, but, once again, it can take decades. It is possible that we'll align or ally with it.
Also, this is an opinion.
俄罗斯不是西方世界的一部分。西方世界严格来说是指北约/欧盟，而俄罗斯并不是它们的一部分。
西方世界正在衰退，但这是一个缓慢的过程，可能需要几十年。
强大的东方集团的出现似乎是有可能的，但是，同样，它可能需要几十年。我们有可能与之结盟或结成同盟。
另外，这只是一种观点。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
OP
Russia is part of the orthodox christian branch of western civilisation like Ukraine and Greece
俄罗斯是西方文明正统基督教分支的一部分，如乌克兰和希腊
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
My opinion is read only
By the same logic we could say that UK belongs to middle east because there are muslims in it.
To be part of the western civilization we'd have to be catholic for the entirety of our history and NATO would need to spend last 70 years building communism, like USSR did it. Or Europe would need to be orthodoxal.
The very existence of NATO block indicates that we're seen as different. Same goes for division of church branches.
Ukraine is slavic, Greece has its own unique cultural roots. West means europe and USA.
Basically what you're doing is shoehorning different cultures together and ignoring what makes them different. Which is not a right thing to do.
按照同样的逻辑，我们可以说英国属于中东，因为那里有穆斯林。
要俄罗斯成为西方文明的一部分，我们必须在整个历史上都是天主教徒，或者北约需要在过去70年里像苏联那样建立共产主义。或者整个欧洲需要成为东正教。
北约集团的存在本身就表明我们被视为与众不同。东西方教会分支的划分也是如此。
乌克兰是斯拉夫的，希腊有自己独特的文化根基。西方只意味着欧洲和美国。
基本上你所做的是把不同的文化塞到一起，而忽略了它们的不同之处。这并不是一件正确的事情。
Greece
Ukraine, Greece, Russia are not really western
Greece is understood as the "origin" of western civilisation but this is just due to the enlightenment and people trying to find a philosophical lix between Greece and the west of Europe.
Greece, in history, culture, geographically, is not Western, no matter how much anyone, Greek or not, will try to say it is.
The western world is the Anglo-French world and its philosophical and political offspring.
希腊
乌克兰、希腊、俄罗斯并不是真正的西方
希腊被理解为西方文明的“起源”，但这只是由于启蒙运动和人们试图在希腊和欧洲西部之间找到一种哲学联系。
希腊在历史、文化、地理上都不是西方，不管任何人、是不是希腊人，试图说它是，它都不是。
西方世界是英法世界和它的哲学和政治后代。
It always works like that. The only question is how soon. Ironically, Biden's desperate attempt to postpone it by sanctioning Russia eventually has accelerated this process because now BRICS and their allies KNOW they must be immune to sanctions to be free, and that means independent financial systems, diversified trade, domestic production etc.
China will simply eventually succeed US as the superpower, like US succeeded Britain, and Britain succeeded Netherlands. There was actually a book by a NY professor (forgot the name) about long cycles and reserve currency, he also speaks about how education is a major driving factor in this change.
世界总是如此运作。唯一的问题是多快。讽刺的是，拜登绝望地试图通过制裁俄罗斯来推迟这一进程，最终加速了这一进程，因为现在金砖国家及其盟友知道他们必须不受制裁的影响才能自由，这意味着独立的金融体系、多元化的贸易、国内生产等。
中国最终将接替美国成为超级大国，就像美国接替英国、英国接替荷兰一样。纽约一位教授（忘了名字）实际上有一本关于长周期和储备货币的书，他还谈到了教育如何成为这种变化的主要驱动因素。
Moscow City
China will surpass it, India will not. "BRICS" is a non-entity, I don't know why people refer to it in the comments.
Russia will suffer because of this change, but it has always been somewhat of a separatist region when it comes to Europe, like a more extreme Britain. It's very obviously declining. With the current war, it really shot itself in the foot because it was benefitting a lot from the international arrangement and the remaining assets of the USSR.
I'm not sure if the Russian government will have the wisdom to align with the rest of Europe. In the past, the influential ex-KGB class was too butthurt about the decline of USSR. The future leadership will probably understand this mistake, but now China will hold too much sway over Russia so it wouldn't be able to act independently.
莫斯科市
中国会超过它，印度不会。“金砖国家”不是一个实体，我不知道为什么人们在评论中提到它。
俄罗斯会因为这个变化而受到影响，但它和欧洲的关系一直有点像一个分离主义地区，就像一个更极端的英国。它非常明显地在衰落。现在的这场战争，它真的是搬起石头砸自己的脚，因为在这之前它从国际分工和苏联的剩余资产中获益良多。
我不确定俄罗斯政府是否会有智慧与欧洲其他国家结盟。在过去，有影响力的前克格勃阶层对苏联的衰落过于耿耿于怀。未来的领导层可能会明白这个错误，但现在中国对俄罗斯的影响力太大了，所以它将无法独立行事。