By Josh Rogin
For most Americans, the U.S. government’s chaotic approach to Sudan became clear only last month when fighting erupted, causing thousands of U.S. citizens to scramble for safety. But for close Sudan-watchers, the disordered evacuation effort is only the latest incident in years of failed policy.

对大多数美国人来说,美国政府对苏丹的混乱态度直到上个月才变得清晰起来,当时爆发了冲突,导致数千名美国公民争先恐后地寻求安全。但对于密切关注苏丹问题的人来说,混乱的撤离行动只是多年来政策失败的最新事故。

Since April 15, when Sudan’s two most powerful generals started attacking each other, the country has descended into widespread violence, leading Sudanese and foreign nationals alike to flee the capital, Khartoum. On Monday, the United Nations warned that the humanitarian crisis in Sudan is on the verge of becoming a “full-blown catastrophe” and, if the fighting continues, 800,000 potential refugees could cause a regional crisis.

自4月15日苏丹两位最有权势的将军开始互相攻击以来,这个国家陷入了大范围的暴力冲突,导致苏丹人和外国人纷纷逃离首都喀土穆。星期一,联合国警告说,苏丹的人道主义危机正处于“全面灾难”的边缘,如果战斗继续下去,80万潜在的难民可能会引发一场地区危机。

The U.S. government seems to have been caught off-guard. On April 23, military helicopters evacuated the embassy in Khartoum, but the Biden administration said security conditions prevented the rescue of private American citizens, leaving many to seek help from other nations. While several other countries evacuated their people, Americans on the ground lamented their government’s lack of support as they made life-or-death decisions.

美国政府似乎对此措手不及。4月23日,军用直升机撤离了驻喀土穆大使馆,但拜登政府表示,由于安全状况不允许营救美国公民,许多人不得不向其他国家寻求帮助。当其他几个国家撤离他们的人民时,美国人在地面上哀叹政府在他们做出生死决定时缺乏支持。

After days of criticism, on April 29, the U.S. Defense Department deployed armed drones to protect a convoy of Americans making the harrowing trip from Khartoum to Port Sudan. Two more such convoys have since arrived in Port Sudan. In Washington, lawmakers in both parties had been calling on the administration to prepare for such a scenario.

经过几天的批评,4月29日,美国国防部部署了武装无人机,以保护从喀土穆前往苏丹港的美国车队。此后又有两个这样的车队抵达苏丹港。在华盛顿,两党议员一直在呼吁政府为这种情况做好预案。

“The violence and ongoing crisis in Sudan are no surprise to anyone paying attention,” James Risch (Idaho), the ranking Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told me. “Why the administration, which has been working on this issue from day one, did not see the troop build-up in Khartoum or other warning signs as sufficient reason to act speaks to the more significant failures of its policy.”

“苏丹的暴力和持续的危机对于任何关注此事的人来说都不会感到意外,”参议院外交关系委员会的共和党高级委员詹姆斯·里施(来自爱达荷州)告诉我。“为什么这届政府从一开始就在处理这个问题,却没有把喀土穆的军队集结或其他警告信号视为采取行动的充分理由,这反映出政策的更重大失败。”
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


As national security adviser Jake Sullivan pointed out, Sudan is not Afghanistan, where the United States had special obligations. Nevertheless, it’s hard not to notice that in both circumstances, the administration had no good plan to get Americans out, and then struggled to come up with one on the fly.

正如国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文所指出的,苏丹并不是美国在阿富汗拥有特殊责任的情况。然而,不难注意到,在这两种情况下,政府都没有好的计划来让美国人撤离,然后也很难在匆忙中想出一个。

The larger U.S. policy failure in Sudan dates back at least to 2019. That’s when soldiers loyal to Sudanese Army Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and those loyal to Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, the head of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), overthrew Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir following popular protests. The two forces are now fighting each other.

美国在苏丹更大的政策失败至少可以追溯到2019年。当时,忠于苏丹陆军将军阿卜杜勒·法塔赫·布尔汉的士兵和忠于民兵快速反应支援部队(RSF)负责人穆罕默德·哈姆丹·达加洛将军的士兵在民众抗议之后推翻了苏丹总统奥马尔·哈桑·巴希尔。这两股势力正在交战。

After Bashir was deposed, U.S. congressional leaders in both parties began calling for more diplomatic attention and resources to support Sudan’s transition to democracy. But the Trump and Biden administrations did little to either advance that reform or convince the two generals that there would be consequences if they broke their promises.

在巴希尔被罢黜后,美国国会两党领导人开始呼吁更多的外交关注和资源,以支持苏丹向民主过渡。但特朗普和拜登政府几乎没有推进改革,也没有让两位将军相信,如果他们违背承诺,将会有恶果。

In October 2021, the generals stamped out the civilian leadership for good. But President Biden failed to impose sanctions on them for their power grab, human rights violations and increasing state corruption. As the infighting intensified, the United States ceded international diplomatic leadership to other countries and failed to properly support civil society groups opposed to military rule.

2021年10月,将军们彻底消灭了文职领导人。但拜登总统未能对他们的权力攫取、侵犯人权和日益严重的国家腐败实施制裁。随着内讧的加剧,美国将国际外交领导权让给了其他国家,也未能适当地支持反对军事统治的民间社会团体。

“Sudan is a prime example of what happens when the United States does not mean what it says and seeks short-term solutions to long-term problems,” Risch said.

苏丹是一个典型的例子,说明当美国不说到做到,寻求短时间解决长期问题时会发生什么,”里什说。

To be sure, in the past two weeks, Secretary of State Antony blxen has been active on Sudan, getting involved in the evacuation efforts and working to establish a meaningful cease-fire. But this stands in contrast to the lack of high-level attention paid to the country over the past two years.

可以肯定的是,在过去的两周里,国务卿安东尼·布林肯在苏丹问题上非常活跃,参与了撤侨和努力促成有意义的停火。但这与过去两年来高层对该国缺乏关注形成了鲜明对比。

John Godfrey, the American ambassador to Sudan, assumed office only last September. The State Department’s special envoy for the Horn of Africa, Ambassador Mike Hammer, is the third person to hold that job in two years. Officials say that bureaucratic turf struggles within the State Department’s Africa bureau have limited his authority on the Sudan problem.

美国驻苏丹大使约翰·戈弗雷去年9月才上任。美国国务院非洲之角特使迈克·哈默大使是两年内第三位担任该职位的人。有关官员说,国务院非洲局内部的官僚争斗限制了他在苏丹问题上的权力。

Many experts say that democratic transition in Sudan was a long shot and imposing sanctions on the generals would not have been effective. But they, too, say the administration has mishandled the policy. If the Biden team didn’t want to bet on actual reform, they argue, it should have at least played a larger role in shaping events.

许多专家表示,苏丹的民主过渡希望渺茫,对将军们实施制裁不会奏效。但他们也表示,政府在政策上处理不当。他们认为,如果拜登团队不想把赌注押在实际的改革上,他们至少应该在塑造事态方面发挥更大的作用。

“We kind of pretended there was a transition when there wasn’t one,” said J. Peter Pham, a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council and a former U.S. special envoy for the Sahel region. “We should have been engaging both parties with a plan to move things along rather than wagging fingers at them.”

“我们有点假装有一个过渡,但实际上没有,”大西洋理事会杰出研究员、前美国撒赫勒地区特使J. Peter Pham说。“我们应该与两个派别进行接触,制定推进事情的计划,而不是对他们指手画脚。”

Now, the United States has no diplomatic presence on the ground. To increase U.S. engagement in Sudan at this point would be difficult. But the United States should not simply stand aside and watch Africa’s third-largest country further descend into crisis.

现在,美国在苏丹没有外交存在。在这个时候增加美国在苏丹的参与将是困难的。但美国不应该简单地站在一旁看着非洲第三大国进一步陷入危机。
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Biden talks a big game about democracy, but his team has often taken a hands-off approach to countries struggling with democratic transitions. The president’s obxtive in the Middle East and North Africa has been described as “no more failed states.” In Sudan, that policy has failed.

拜登在民主方面大言不惭,但他的团队在许多国家的民主过渡问题上经常采取不干预的方法。在中东和北非,总统的目标被描述为“不再有失败的国家”。在苏丹,这一政策已经失败了。