话题讨论：西方是否正走向银行危机？
Are we headed for a banking crisis? | Business Special
译文简介
话题讨论：西方是否正走向银行危机？
正文翻译
After what was probably the most tumultous week for US and European banks since the 2008 financial crisis, we ask whether there is substance behind the panic.
在美国和欧洲银行业经历了可能是自2008年金融危机以来最动荡的一周之后，我们不禁要问，这种恐慌背后是否存在实质内容?
在美国和欧洲银行业经历了可能是自2008年金融危机以来最动荡的一周之后，我们不禁要问，这种恐慌背后是否存在实质内容?
In this week’s DW Business Special, Gerald Cohen, Chief Economist at the Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise, looks into the reasons behind banking jitters in Europe and bank collapses in the United States.
在本周的德国之声商业特别节目中，凯南私营企业研究所首席经济学家杰拉德·科恩研究了欧洲银行业恐慌和美国银行倒闭背后的原因。
在本周的德国之声商业特别节目中，凯南私营企业研究所首席经济学家杰拉德·科恩研究了欧洲银行业恐慌和美国银行倒闭背后的原因。
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"To cause a crisis, start the inception of the idea..."
Some are catching on to the game being used against us.
“要想引发危机，就从构建危机的想法开始……”
有些人发现了这个游戏来对付我们。
It's not that the Saudi National Bank didn't want to buy more shares of credit Swiss... it's just that (according to Swiss laws and financial regulators) they were not allowed to buy more than their 10% as that is the maximum percentage that any foreign entity is allowed to own of any bank in Switzerland ☝
沙特国家银行并不是不想购买更多瑞士信贷的股票……只是(根据瑞士法律和金融监管机构)他们不允许购买超过10%的股份，因为这是任何外国实体在瑞士拥有任何银行的最大百分比。
Swiss Credit will collapse soon. save your money now!
瑞士信贷很快就会崩溃。现在就存钱!
@Bez Nazvania They won't be able to fail
他们不可能失败。
@Bez Nazvania I don't think so my friend as financial conditions and regulations are significantly different than they were in 2008
我不这么认为，我的朋友，因为金融状况和监管与2008年有很大不同。
Don't cloud the issue with facts.
不要用事实来掩盖问题。
Geralt looks like a happy puppy whenever he isn't speaking
杰洛特不说话的时候就像只快乐的小狗。
America is built on customer satisfaction and smile
美国建立在顾客满意和微笑之上。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
When you are born in a capitalist country, there are three things you need to work on: eye contact, handshake, and smile lmao
当你出生在资本主义国家，有三件事你需要努力：眼神交流，握手和微笑，哈哈哈。
As long as the central bank is increasing interest rate, it keeps on adding pressure on banks and other sectors. The weak lix will always bust, it's not necessarily a bad thing in long run. However, the goal is 2% inflation rate, and this will be going for few years if we can drag it down to there, meanwhile, damages will be done to avoid a real melt down.
只要央行继续提高利率，就会不断增加银行和其他行业的压力。薄弱环节总会破裂，从长远来看未必是坏事。然而，我们的目标是2%的通货膨胀率，如果我们能把它拖到这个水平，这种情况将持续几年，与此同时，将造成损害，从而避免真正的崩溃。
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It's nuts, the market is in the green even as banks are downgraded. Wall Street does not reflect the realities of main street
太疯狂了，即使银行评级被下调，市场还是一片欣欣向荣。华尔街并不反映普通民众的现实。
The market is forward looking, this was priced in yesterday
市场是向前看的，这一点昨天已经反映在股价中。
I agree
同意。
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@Bez Nazvania From what I understand they have already been bailed out by the Swiss Government. But, 'save your money now' still makes more sense than ever!
据我所知，他们已经得到了瑞士政府的救助。但是，“现在就存钱”比以往任何时候都更有意义!
And QE while raising rates at same time. The world of phoney money.
量化宽松的同时提高利率。假钱的世界。
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Never did. So true.
从来没有。所以是的。
It never has.
从来没有。
It's kinda weird - they're talking about recession and financial crisis, and both of them smiling as if they talk about flower exhibition or something - I like your positivity DW
有点奇怪——他们在谈论经济衰退和金融危机，两人却都笑得好像在谈论花展之类的东西——我喜欢你的积极态度，DW。
Maybe they shorted some banking stocks
也许他们做空了一些银行股。
true they must be in love
没错，他们一定是相爱了。
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They're shellshocked.
他们被吓呆了。
It's good for business if you're in the media, talking points == $$$.
如果你在媒体工作，对你的生意有好处，谈话要点 = 金钱。
nothing is safe these days.
现在什么都不安全。
Can't lose if you don't invest amirite
不投资就不会亏损，对吧？。
Antidepressants
抗抑郁药。
They are smiling cos they are lying through those teeth.
他们微笑是因为他们在撒谎。
We're headed for lots of crises! We've got to pay all of our debts eventually since we cannot avoid our greed or regulate ourselves -- Earth will regulate us.
我们正走向许多危机! 我们最终要偿还所有的债务，因为我们无法避免自己的贪婪，也无法约束自己——地球会约束我们。
For EU: your savings up to €100k are safe so no need to panic. If you're above that - think about low interest, long term investing or freezing your money with metals.
对于欧盟来说：你的储蓄不超过10万欧元就是安全的，所以没有必要恐慌。如果高于这个水平，可以考虑低利率、长期投资或投资（贵）金属。
High interest rate would be annoying and lending to depositors account ratio would< 1 towards vanishing.
高利率令人讨厌，贷款给储户的账户比率将< 1接近消失。
Ultimately high interest rate would increase inflation in business and real estate also simultaneous effects on other sectors.
最终，高利率会增加商业和房地产的通货膨胀，同时也会对其他部门产生影响。
high interest rate would decrease inflation, OMG that are basic economics
高利率会降低通货膨胀，天哪，这是基本的经济学。
We already in a banking crises it's just not excepted at the moment denial is the only tool we have against the dept problem.Wealth is only real when in your back pocket and that will come true as every day that passes now.
我们已经陷入了银行业危机，目前也不例外，否认是我们对付债务问题的唯一工具。财富只有在你的口袋里时才是真实的，随着时间的流逝，这一点日益真实。
It's a fun ride, said the bank executive giving himself a bonus as it all bursts. Bond market is fudgey
这是一段有趣的旅程，据说那个银行的高管在全面爆发时给自己发了奖金。债券市场一团糟。
I thought It would take a long time. Because The ECB has made a clear statement and calculation of inflation . And the ECB has a goal of inflation's target under 3%
我以为会花很长时间。因为欧洲央行已经明确表态和计算通胀。欧洲央行的目标是将通胀控制在3%以下。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
If a risky asset is not valuable, why buy it? Who bears responsibility for the ultimate fail? And, is the transaction insurable?
如果风险资产不值钱，为什么要买? 谁来为最终的失败负责? 还有，交易是否可保?
Perhaps the limited banking turbulence is a indication that interest rates have reached a good level now. A kind of organic economic message.
也许有限的银行业动荡表明利率已经达到了一个良好的水平。这是一种有机的经济信息。
在经历了两次全球危机之后，对流动性更强的资产(至少比债券更强)的需求可能很快就会增加，因为经济行为体为有利可图的投资、在合适的时候重新激发需求和市场动力准备了各种选择。
在相当不确定的时期，资金可能被吸引到具有实物价值的地方，而不会损失太多流动性或自由度。
预期的劳动力短缺将导致工资上涨，但根据分配情况，这可能是一个非常有益的发展，即使它会对价格水平和/或利润率产生短期影响。
在地缘政治、战略储备积累和贸易政策的影响下，能源和粮食产量的增加可能使价格下降幅度超过预期，并导致这些基本商品进入前所未有的价格稳定时期。
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JUST HAVE FAITH, OUR SYSTEM FUNCTIONS, IT WORKS ON TRUST, HAVE TRUST IN EACH OTHER
要有信念，我们的系统运作，是建立在信任之上的，彼此信任。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Most likely scenario = “slow rolling crisis” (Larry Fink) + several “air pockets” (Larry Summers) i.e. this is going to slowly get worse and at certain points get significantly worse.
最有可能的情况=“缓慢滚动的危机”(拉里·芬克)+几个“气穴”(拉里·萨默斯)，也就是说，情况会慢慢变得更糟，在某些时候会变得更糟。
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It is short term... gradually transforming to long term
这是短期的……逐渐转变为长期。
Seems like the presenter and guest speaker are happy with all the smile
看起来主持人和演讲嘉宾都很开心。
It beats them panicking and blaming minorities.
总比恐慌和指责少数族裔要好。
Expectations influence outcome
预期影响结果，
After the Fed tightened the financial market so drastically and by so much, it would be very surprising if only 2 banks break.
在美联储如此大幅度地收紧金融市场之后，如果只有两家银行破产，那就非常令人惊讶了。
American smile from ear to ear . No problem, no war.
美国人笑得合不拢嘴。没有问题，没有战争。
Some of us are snickering.
我们中的一些人在窃笑。
There is no war in Ba Sing Se
永固城没有战争。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Svb played bad. It broke. Others are not in that camp. But Europe worries me. Most of their banks are struggling. And it can be a chain lix effect.
硅谷银行运行的很差，所以破产了。其他银行则不是这样。但欧洲让我担心。他们的大多数银行都在苦苦挣扎。可能产生连锁效应。
Only in America. I know for sure that in my country every banking product is re-insured in the case of default - the default isn't on the bank, but the entity that insured the loan, so the bank itself is only the marketer in the whole scenario.
只有美国。我很确定地知道，在我的国家，每一个银行产品在违约的情况下都有重新保险——违约不是在银行身上，而是在为贷款投保的实体身上，所以银行本身只是整个场景中的营销者。
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US bank accounts are insured by the FDIC up to $250,000. In practice, all deposits are paid out, including those above this amount.
美国的银行账户由联邦存款保险公司提供最高25万美元的保险。实际上，所有的存款都得到支付，包括超过这个数额的存款。
Remember when the fed kept raising interest rates to break the middle class, and guess what the first things to break was the banks. And now the fed gonna lower interest rates because the banks are hurting
还记得美联储为了击垮中产阶级而不断提高利率吗，你猜怎么着，最先击垮的是银行。因为银行受到了伤害，现在美联储要降低利率。
"Banks are hurting" - do you mean that the CEO cannot get a new sportscar or another holiday house next month, or the month after?
“银行受到了伤害”——你的意思是（银行的）首席执行官下个月或下下个月不能得到一辆新的跑车或又一处度假别墅吗?
Bailout if it avoids financial ruin but fiscal responsibility is important as well
如果能避免财政破产，就施以援助，但财政责任也很重要。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
But after a financial ruin their will be survivors, and you can start with a clean slate and no bailout from the taxpayers.
但在金融崩溃后，他们将成为幸存者，你只能从头开始，得不到纳税人的救助。
Nervousness leads us closer and closer to a crisis, but what does DW News do? Use concerning, click-bait titles, of course! What is simultaneously distressing and hilarious is that the media seems to have no idea whatsoever how badly they are lending towards a breakdown - just from the way they choose to cover things. How this garbage got recommended to me is beyond me but now it just won't stop pitching me these stories.
紧张让我们离危机越来越近，但是DW新闻会怎么做? 当然，要使用引人关注的标题! 令人既痛苦又滑稽的是，媒体似乎完全不知道他们多么迫近一场崩溃——仅仅从他们选择报道事情的方式来看。这些垃圾是如何被推荐给我的，这超出了我的理解，但现在它根本不会停止向我推销这些故事。
Lol
哈哈。
You are Wrong !!! Sector its completly broke again they stole all money and there is need be total reform otherwise whole system, collapse.
你错了!! 这个部门再次彻底崩溃了，他们偷了所有的钱，需要全面改革，否则整个系统就会崩溃。
@Radical Wolf 71 Unless the USA is significantly different, all personal deposit accounts here (Canada) are insured automatically up to something like $250,000 per account. The only people needing to scramble are those with accounts exceeding that amount - such as those startups at SVB.
除非美国截然不同，这里(加拿大)的所有个人存款账户都自动投保，每个账户的保额最高可达25万美元。唯一需要着急的是那些账户超过这个数额的人——比如SVB的那些初创公司。
在2020年代，是不可能让普通公民像囤厕纸一样囤钱的。当你的工资账户是50万美元时，我就会惊慌失措地发工资，因为员工没有工资的话往往会离职。据我所知，SVB就是这种情况。这家银行做了一些高风险投资，试图利用利率上升的机会获利。我明白，我在个人财务上也是这么做的。最好相信你是在以3% +的利率锁定了一些钱，如果可以的话，利率只有1%或更低。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
这里所发生的一切只是一些银行对投资管理不善，当利率发生变化时，他们过于接近风险线。这破坏了他们的稳定。不幸的是，所有的银行都有一些投资，所以人们越着急，他们就越接近不稳定。
这就是你所描述的场景，银行和富人拼命敛财，让普通人一无所有。我们还没到那个边缘。话又说回来，在过去几年的事情之后，我认为人们不免会反应过度。
we really didnt come here to hear anyones hope. we kind of want to hear the truth
我们真的不是来听任何人的希望的。我们想听真相。
Well there’s a lot of speculation and it can go many ways
有很多猜测，可能有很多种方式。
If a bank in Swiss also went bankrupt?
如果瑞士的银行也破产了?
Bad newz.
坏新闻。
The economy is like an overstuffed taxidermy zombie balancing on stilts right now being held together with duct tape and superglue. These are not a "blip" these events are the canary in the coal mine dying.
经济就像一个用胶带和强力胶粘起来的塞得太满的标本僵尸，现在在高跷上保持平衡。这些事件不是“昙花一现”，而是煤矿里即将死亡的金丝雀（PS：曾经煤矿用金丝雀监测瓦斯浓度。）。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
love how she plays with her tongue
喜欢她花言巧语的样子。
The Banking sector is being fed up with Fed
银行业受够了美联储。
The US Government should give $500K per household, instead of helping the banks....the middle and low class are the one depositing the money in the banks, buying cars, buying furniture, etc. Wasn't the lack of "deposits" one of the biggest reasons why SVBank went under????
美国政府应该给每个家庭50万美元，而不是帮助银行……中产阶级和下层阶级把钱存在银行，买汽车，买家具等等。缺乏“存款”难道不是硅谷银行倒闭的最大原因之一吗？
Also State of California is giving $200k(+) per African American that would fall under a certain criteria...(a descendant of a slave from Africa, etc.). And that's fine, but what about other minorities like Chinese who were building roads and railroads all across the US, who were brought to the American soil as slaves or working force that never got paid??? Why would only the state of California do this, California was NEVER a "slave" state (in US history that is).
此外，加利福尼亚州还在向每个符合特定标准的非裔美国人(非洲奴隶的后代等)发放20万美元(+)。这很好，但其他少数民族呢，比如在美国各地修建公路和铁路的华人，他们被带到美国土地上当奴隶或劳动力，从来没有得到过报酬? 为什么只有加利福尼亚州这样做，加州从来都不是一个“蓄奴”州(在美国历史上是这样)。
更有趣的是，旧金山目前正在考虑实施一个有点不同的计划。如果该法案在今年6月获得通过，纽约市将向每个符合一定标准的非裔美国公民发放500万美元。
我认为DW应该研究一下这一点。
Doesnt even pass a smell test here....
连气味测试都没有通过……
Yes - Germany is likely heading towards more hard-times. Olaf Scholz should've never listened to Joe Biden.
是的，德国可能会走向更加艰难的时期。奥拉夫·肖尔茨当初就不该听乔·拜登的话。
Thank you Zelenskyj and Ukraina how stoped oil and gas supplys from Russia bravo stay strong let Europens Economy be totaly slaughtered.
谢谢你，泽连斯基和乌克兰阻止了俄罗斯的石油和天然气供应，加油，保持强大，将欧洲经济彻底屠杀。
You don´t remember energy prices rising even before the war in Ukraine? It was January 2022, I was talking to an energy consultant about how he´s flooded with work, people trying to switch to different energy providers because theirs had raised the prices through the roof.
你不记得乌克兰战争前能源价格就已经上涨了吗? 那是在2022年1月，我和一位能源顾问谈论他是如何被工作淹没的，人们试图切换到不同的能源供应商，因为他们的价格已经提高到屋顶。
Not sure...
A lot of zombie on the market, companies on the debt-ventilator machine, and hard increase of the number of the bankruptcies
不确定……
市场上有很多僵尸，公司上了债务呼吸机，破产的数量也在不断增加。
They're ALL bust, they just keep moving money around from one multinational failed bank to another. Keeps them happy, frightens investors and the public, they're all investing in the advertising world for the next dramatic financial crash.
他们都破产了，他们只是不停地把钱从一家破产的跨国银行转移到另一家。让他们开心，让投资者和公众害怕，他们都在投资广告世界，以应对下一次巨大的金融危机。
Ppl withdraw their cash , the fed printer fills the vacuum, anti cash legislation helps as does closing the bank branches. People left holding worthless paper
人们提取现金，美联储印刷厂填补了这些空白，反现金立法有助于关闭银行分支机构。人们手里拿着一文不值的纸币离开了。
west in general and USA in perticular is unable to sustain high inflation and interest rates for extended period, because they have to much consumer debt which creates a feedback loop that is getting out of hand.
西方，尤其是美国，无法长期维持高通胀和高利率，因为他们有太多的消费者债务，这造成了一个失控的反馈循环。
nice contrarian edgelord handle bro
很好的逆向操作，兄弟。
Agreed. The West does not know to live within it's means, or to be told "no, you cannot have that". I want things to break just enough that the current generations remember a lack, even for short period.
同意了。西方不知道量入为出，也不知道被告知“不，你不能那样”。我希望即将发生的情况足以让当代人记住这种缺憾，即使只能持续很短时间。
Take a shot for every time he says cautiously optimistic...
每次他说谨慎乐观就喝一杯……
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
The collapse have been postponed for a couple of months, will come back around august.
崩溃已经推迟了几个月，将在8月左右重新开始。
We need another recession seen prices of things lately it all needs a reset
我们需要另一场经济衰退，最近物价都需要重新调整。
But otherr news sources say that mid-tier banks can avoid the requirements instituted after 2008
但其他消息来源称，中型银行可以规避2008年后制定的要求。
What about the “risk management officer” ?
那“风险管理官”呢?
This is a panic which is not required. Big banks are well capitalised. buy increasing interest rates can further complicate things .. turbulent times ahead 2023 isnt going to be good for sure
这是一种不必要的恐慌。大银行资本充足。提高利率会使事情进一步复杂化。2023年之前的动荡肯定不会是好事。
What about the fact that Swiss banks are still allowing Russian money to be held there!!!??? Shocking!
瑞士银行仍然允许俄罗斯的资金存在那里，这是怎么回事??? 令人震惊!
Fixing the banking system with massive bail out and printing money will not save the dollar from de dollarisation...
通过大规模纾困和印钞来修复银行系统，并不能使美元免于去美元化……
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Gold and silver time, they want to calm everyone down while the rich can acquire the gold and then it can crash, give it a week
黄金和白银的时间，他们想让大家冷静下来，同时富人可以获得黄金，然后崩溃就可以发生了，比如一个星期。
How many times can he say you know?
他能说多少次“你知道”?
Its good news
好新闻。
Funny stories. The Saudis said they wouldn't invest more because that would push their holding to 10% which triggers additional regulation, not because they didn't see value or have confidence, but that gets repeated as a negative comment.
有趣的故事。沙特说他们不会增加投资，因为那样会把他们的持股比例提高到10%，从而引发额外的监管，不是因为他们没有看到价值或没有信心，但这被反复视为负面评论。
Someone has to buy government debt
必须有人购买政府债券。
You’d think, but every country in the world is in debt. Too whom? No idea.
你可能会想，但世界上每个国家都负债累累。至于欠谁的? 不知道。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
What are we smiling over?
你们笑个球啊？
I thought its the Chinese and Russian economy that is in trouble
我还以为陷入麻烦的是中国和俄罗斯的经济呢。
The guy looks and speaks like AI
这家伙的表情和说话的样子就像AI。
This guy doesn't sound convincing. Seems like something big is brewing, not necessarily a big recession, but appears to be very bad
这家伙听起来不可信。似乎有大事情正在酝酿，不一定是大衰退，但看起来非常糟糕。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
It sounds like bank sponsored this video just to avoid people panicking. Their smiles are creepy, totally ruining the credibility of the material
听起来这个视频是银行赞助的，就是为了避免人们恐慌。他们的微笑令人毛骨悚然，完全破坏了材料的可信度。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
A bit bizarre.
有点奇怪。
biden says "The Economy is good"
拜登说了“经济很好”。
Cinemax
Seems Europe and west is suffering more than Russia
似乎欧洲和西方比俄罗斯更惨。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
as if we actually know what's going on with Russia
说的好像我们真知道俄罗斯的情况一样。
Essentially this guy says he knows nothing about credit suisse.. such a pointless interview. He's just hot air
本质上，这家伙说他对瑞士信贷一无所知。如此毫无意义的采访。他只会吹牛。
“我不知道是有问题还是没有问题”，就这样持续了20分钟。
Hahaha top reaction on this news is a BOT , and has 80 likes ... wow who says AI can't take over the internet.
哈哈哈，这条新闻的点赞最多的评论是机器人发的，有80个赞……哇，谁说人工智能不能接管互联网。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
9:26 creepy smile..
令人毛骨悚然的微笑。
This is a problem for people who banked there and nobody else. Boring story.
这只是那些在那里存钱的人的问题。无聊的故事。
The answer to the headline question is NO!
This is yet more chewing gum for the ears.....
Disappointing from DW.
标题问题的答案是没有!
这个视频不值得看……
DW的报道令人失望。
Time for the crypto bull to awaken like never before
是时候让加密牛以前所未有的方式觉醒了。
Crypto are also the caused of this craps.
加密货币也是这坨狗屎的起因。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
we found billions for Ukraine, I'm sure we will find billions of € to help our own citizens, right?
我们为乌克兰找到了数十亿欧元，我相信我们也会找到数十亿欧元来帮助我们自己的公民，对吧?
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Don't worry Zelenskyj and Ukraina will help Europes economy out
别担心，泽连斯基和乌克兰将帮助欧洲经济走出困境。
This guy is clueless
这家伙毫无头绪。
Jas the gews
把犹太人做肥皂。（gas the jews）
Lol
哈哈。
I hope it is serious.
Recession = Demand for oil and energy is tanking = Russia is suffering more than anyone.
我希望情况很严重。
经济衰退 = 对石油和能源的需求下降 = 俄罗斯比任何人都要痛苦。
Not a good idea. Any damage from Recession will have less effect on Russia as it's not in Swift at all. Also Recession = US EU have no money = less support to Ukraine
这不是个好主意。经济衰退带来的任何损害对俄罗斯的影响都较小，因为它根本不在Swift中。经济衰退 = 美欧没钱 = 对乌克兰的支持减少。