网友讨论：什么样的现实会让俄罗斯结束战争？
What realistically are the broad scenarios that will allow the war to end in russia?
译文简介
今天阅读 BBC 的报道，大约 75% 的 40 岁以上的俄罗斯人支持战争
正文翻译
What realistically are the broad scenarios that will allow the war to end in russia?
什么样的现实会让俄罗斯结束战争？
评论翻译
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The sanctions target the oligarchs of course, but they have enough money that it will not affect their support of the war. Internationally Russia is losing long term revenue from the sale of oil and gas, the international financial system has kicked them out, and they will be weaker than ever before. Yet Russia, to the Russians, is still a part of the international community, since the IOC and other bodies failed to kick them out in protest against their war. The IOC could have sent a strong message had they done so.
It''s clear from international reports that Putin has never veered from his talking points charade of requiring the West to make concessions while never offering any of his own to reduce aggression against Ukraine.
今天阅读 BBC 的报道，大约 75% 的 40 岁以上的俄罗斯人支持战争，而在 40 岁以下的人中这一比例仅为 62%，无论如何，普京没有停止战争的动力，因为他保持着人民的广泛支持。俄罗斯几代人都让其人民承受着可怕的条件，因此尽管有制裁，但对于普通的俄罗斯人来说，并没有真正改变什么。
制裁当然是针对寡头的，但他们有足够的钱，不会影响他们支持战争。在国际上，俄罗斯正在失去石油和天然气销售的长期收入，国际金融体系已将其踢出局，他们将比以往任何时候都更加虚弱。然而，对俄罗斯人来说，俄罗斯仍然是国际社会的一部分，因为国际奥委会和其他机构未能将他们赶出去以抗议他们的战争。如果国际奥委会这么做，他们本可以发出一个强烈的信息。
从国际报道中可以清楚地看出，普京从未改变他的谈话要点，即要求西方做出让步，同时从不提供他自己的任何让步以减少对乌克兰的侵略。
Ukraine amasses superior firepower to the point that they retake their territory from Russia, including the Donbas, but also Crimea. This would make it impossible for Russia to perceive success, but would also force Putin to up the stakes.
The international community, under the leadership of the US, use this opportunity to strengthen the UN''s governing capability. I don''t know what this means, but I see this as key. It would require greater commitment by China which would be loathe to support, but the added pressure would make Putin''s ventures more difficult.
Putin over reaches. With reports that he is to take over Moldova as well as Belarus, and undoubtedly other countries, this could spread his network to thin and force greater fissures. I only hope he has a greater lapse in judgment and goes for it, if he sees Ukraine as impossible.
Putin dies.
I'm curious to know what realistic outcomes there are. Please share your thoughts.
因此，在发生重大转变之前，普京没有动力放弃他失败的战争。这场斗争可能会持续多年，并会在许多不同的总统和总理之间进行。所以我想知道要以广泛但现实且至关重要的方式结束这场战争需要什么？下面是我能想到的：
1. 乌克兰积聚了强大的火力，以至于他们从俄罗斯手中夺回了领土，包括顿巴斯和克里米亚。这将使俄罗斯察觉到无法成功，但也会迫使普京加大赌注。
2. 国际社会在美国的领导下，利用这个机会，加强联合国的治理能力。我不知道这意味着什么，但我认为这是关键。这需要中国做出更大的承诺，而中国是不愿意支持的，但增加的压力会使普京的冒险更加困难。
3. 普京做得过分了。有报道称他打算接管摩尔多瓦和白俄罗斯，毫无疑问还有其他国家，这可能会使他的关系网变得紧张并造成更大的裂痕。我只希望他在判断上有更大的失误并坚持下去，如果他认为获取乌克兰已经是不可能的。
4. 普京...。
我很想知道有哪些现实的结果。请分享你的想法。
The war does still have popular support in Russia and Ukraine and Russia are both still very far away from each other at the negotiating table. Both sides effectively believe they are on track to win and so neither side really has an incentive to give up much.
All of that said I do think it’s a mistake to view “when will the war end” entirely as a political question and not as a military question. 21st century wars can’t be won by flooding the battlefield with mass infantry but instead they require lots of modern weapons and good training and tactics. If Ukraine gets the right weapons in the sufficient quantities then I fully believe they can militarily retake all the captured land which would likely put an end to the war. That said if the west decides to cut off weapons shipments to Ukraine then the war could potentially go on for quite awhile if Ukraine just refuses to sue for peace (which they may).
这场战争在俄罗斯确实仍有民众支持，乌克兰和俄罗斯距离上谈判桌还很远。双方实际上都认为自己在获胜的轨道上，所以双方都没有真正的动力来做出很大让步。
综上所述，我确实认为将"战争何时结束"完全视为一个政治问题而非军事问题是错误的。21世纪的战争不可能通过大量步兵涌入战场而获胜，而是需要大量现代武器和良好的训练和战术。如果乌克兰获得足够数量的正确武器，那么我完全相信他们可以在军事上夺回所有被占领的土地，这将可能结束战争。也就是说，如果西方决定切断对乌克兰的武器运输，并且乌克兰拒绝求和（他们可能会这样做），那么战争可能会持续很长一段时间。
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What’s to stop Russia from keep on attacking, even if they are kicked out? As long as they think they have a chance, they will continue to attack.
如何能阻止俄罗斯继续进攻？只要他们认为还有机会，即使他们被暂时赶了出去，也会继续进攻。
If Russia has already been pushed out of all of Ukraine it means they have suffered massive military setbacks and losses. Taking ground when you have 5,000 tanks at your disposal is one thing but taking it when you have 500 tanks is another. The financial cost of the war for Russia at that point would be astronomical and the defeats would be very public. Fighting a losing war amid a economic catastrophe is very difficult to maintain long term.
Once a peace deal is signed that gives Ukraine 100% of it's territory it would likely join NATO very quickly. Once in NATO Russia wouldn't be able to come back without triggering a broad war.
如果俄罗斯已经被赶出了整个乌克兰，这意味着他们遭受了巨大的军事挫折和损失。有5000辆坦克可以使用和只有500辆坦克可以使用的进攻是两回事。到那时，俄罗斯的战争财务成本将是天文数字，失败将不可避免。在经济灾难中打一场失败的战争是很难长期维持的。
一旦签署和平协议，让乌克兰拥有100%的领土，它可能会很快加入北约。一旦加入北约，俄罗斯就无法在不引发广泛战争的情况下卷土重来了。
That's assuming Ukraine would be allowed to join NATO. That's a huge liability for NATO member states.
这是假设乌克兰将被允许加入北约。这对北约成员国来说是一个巨大的负担。
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Not really, it shortens and moves the West’s border with Russia Eastward and since NATO would not invade Russia under any foreseeable circumstances it actually adds to Russia’s security
并非如此，它缩短了西方与俄罗斯的边界并将其向东移动，而且由于北约在任何可预见的情况下都不会入侵俄罗斯，它实际上增加了俄罗斯的安全
Yes really, because a fifth of Ukraine is currently occupied by Russia. It's too volatile of a situation. One slip up and the world ends.
是的，因为乌克兰目前有五分之一的领土被俄罗斯占领。情况太不稳定了。一个失误，世界就完蛋了。
I thought the scenario being discussed assume Ukraine regained all its pre 2014 territory.
我认为正在讨论的情景假设乌克兰收复了 2014 年前的所有领土。
Why is Ukraine a liability?
为什么说乌克兰是一个负担？
If Russia attacked a NATO Ukraine, Ukraine would invoke Article 5 and everyone else in NATO would basically be directly engaged with Russia aka WW3.
如果俄罗斯攻击北约的乌克兰，乌克兰将援引第 5 条，北约的其他所有人基本上都会与俄罗斯直接交战，也就是第三次世界大战。
Which is why Russia hasn’t and wouldn’t attack a member of NATO. That’s the security NATO countries were looking for.
这就是为什么俄罗斯没有也不会攻击北约成员国的原因。这就是北约国家所寻求的安全。
They feel penned in, and they might do something crazy if they feel provoked. The Russian psyche is still paranoid, justifiably, from WW2 when the USSR lost 27 million people to a horrifying war with Germany. We cannot risk global thermonuclear war, even if it means Ukraine's sovereignty. The furthest extent we should be involved is sending support to the Ukrainian military, because MAD applies to everybody.
他们觉得自己被困住了，如果他们被激怒，他们可能会做出疯狂的事情。俄罗斯人的心理仍然偏执，这是有道理的，因为从第二次世界大战开始，当时苏联在与德国的一场可怕战争中损失了 2700 万人。我们不能冒全球热核战争的风险，即使这意味着乌克兰的主权。我们应该参与的最大程度是向乌克兰军方提供支持，因为互相毁灭所有人都逃不掉。
Never forget, Russia helped start WWII as an ally of the Nazi’s. It’s not their paranoia that is the problem, it’s their aggression.
永远不要忘记，俄罗斯作为纳粹的盟友帮助发动了第二次世界大战。问题不是他们的偏执，而是他们的攻击性。
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Russia wanted to enter into a formal alliance with Great Britain to contain Germany and was told no.
俄罗斯想与英国结成正式联盟以遏制德国，但被拒绝了。
They're not "justifiably" paranoid, and they never have been. The USSR started WWII allied with Nazi Germany. They had a deal to carve up Eastern Europe between them, and would have remained allies had Hitler not betrayed Stalin.
What was the last major catastrophe that Russia suffered through no fault of its own? The Mongol invasion? Nearly everything after that was either self-inflicted or brought on them as a direct result of their own imperialist and often genocidal aggression against their neighbors.
We cannot risk global thermonuclear war, even if it means Ukraine's sovereignty.
Ukraine's sovereignty is a critical bulwark against global thermonuclear war. A world in which Ukraine falls to Russia is a world in which every nation across the globe learns that diplomacy and the rules-based international order are meaningless and nuclear weapons are the only real form of security. A Russian victory in Ukraine would lead directly to a new and unprecedented level of nuclear proliferation.
他们的偏执不是“有道理的”，从来都不是。苏联在二战中与纳粹德国结盟。他们之间有一个瓜分东欧的协议，如果不是希特勒背叛了斯大林，他们会一直是盟友。
俄罗斯非因自己的过错而遭受的最后一次重大灾难是什么？蒙古人的入侵？在那之后，几乎所有的事情都是他们自己造成的，或者是由于他们自己的帝国主义和经常对邻国进行种族灭绝的侵略而直接带来的。
“我们不能冒全球热核战争的风险，即使这意味着乌克兰的主权。”
乌克兰的主权是抵御全球热核战争的一个重要堡垒。一个乌克兰落入俄罗斯之手的世界，就是一个全球每个国家都知道外交和基于规则的国际秩序毫无意义，核武器是唯一真正的安全形式的世界。俄罗斯在乌克兰的胜利将直接导致新的和前所未有的核扩散。
It’s really insane how many people disagree with this and want escalation or a never-ending war. The world isn’t fair, people. Justice isn’t always served. This is the rare case where I’d rather have injustice than widespread death.
“我们不能冒全球热核战争的风险，即使这意味着乌克兰的主权。”
这么多的人不同意这一点并希望局势进一步升级或一场永无止境的战争，这真是太疯狂了。世界是不公平的，大家。正义并不总是得到伸张。这是一个罕见的案例，我宁愿存在不公正也不愿看到广泛的死亡。
I guess my question is, where does it end? If countries stop supporting Ukraine because they're afraid of a Russian nuclear threat, doesn't that just encourage Russia, or any country with nuclear weapons, to take territory from their neighbors with impunity?
I'm not an expert and I'm happy to be wrong, but letting Russia take Ukraine without a fight sounds like appeasement, and I'm not convinced Russia will stop there. I've also heard that it demonstrates to China that Taiwan is up for grabs.
Again, I'm just a guy with no foreign policy qualifications, but I see the importance of aiding Ukraine as much as possible.
我的问题是，结束的点在哪里？如果各国因为害怕俄罗斯的核威胁而停止支持乌克兰，这不就是鼓励俄罗斯或任何拥有核武器的国家肆无忌惮地从其邻国夺取领土吗？
我不是专家，我很高兴自己的看法是错的，但让俄罗斯兵不血刃地夺取乌克兰听起来像是绥靖，我不相信俄罗斯会就此罢休。我还听说，这向中国表明，台湾（地区）是可以争夺的。
再说一次，我只是一个没有制定外交政策资格的普通人，但我看到了尽可能多地援助乌克兰的重要性。
You don't have to care one whit about justice to know that appeasement doesn't work. Russia is a predator, and giving predators what they want only encourages them, and not only them but every other predator in world.
A world in which every autocrat sees that nuclear weapons allow you to wage wars of aggression with impunity is a world in which every state that can obtain nuclear weapons, will. Either to facilitate aggression or to defend against it. This is a world in which the nuclear Armageddon you're so afraid of is much more likely, not less.
你不需要关心正义，就知道绥靖是行不通的。俄罗斯是一个掠夺者，给掠夺者他们想要的东西只会鼓励他们，而且不仅是他们，还有世界上所有其他的掠夺者。
一个每个独裁者都认为核武器可以让你肆无忌惮地发动侵略战争的世界，就是一个每个能够获得核武器的国家都会尽量这样做的世界。要么是为了便于侵略，要么是为了抵御侵略。在这个世界上，你所害怕的热核大战的可能性要大得多，而不是小得多。
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I’m sorry, but you see what we do to countries that don’t have nukes. We had Gadaffi and Sadam give up the game, and they paid the price for it. Why do you think we leave NK and even Iran alone for the most part? We have shown the world that we will leave you alone if you have nukes, that’s our fault.
不好意思，但你应该看到我们对没有核武器的国家做了什么。我们让卡扎菲和萨达姆退出了游戏，他们为此付出了代价。你认为为什么我们在很大程度上不去理会朝鲜甚至伊朗？我们已经向世界表明，如果你们拥有核武器，我们将放过你们，这是我们的错。
I'm just worried this is going to escalate into war with china
我只是担心这会升级为与中国的战争
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It won't; China has no desire to get involved
不会的，中国无意介入
When a war will end is almost always a political question. Very few wars end with one side taking the entire territory of the other side. It's pretty much impossible at this point for Russia to take over all of Ukraine in this conflict as well, so no matter how things go on the battlefield this war would have to end with a representative of Ukraine sitting down with a representative of Russia and talking about who will concede what.
Military control of territory will inform the political bargaining. It's pretty unlikely that Ukraine would hand over territory that Russia hasn't managed to enter at all and it's pretty unlikely that Russia hands over territory they feel like they can still hold. It won't end the war though, only a mutual agreement that a war is over or the complete destruction of one side could do that, and neither is likely in the near future.
战争何时结束几乎总是一个政治问题。很少有战争以一方完全占领另一方的整个领土而告终。这一次俄罗斯也几乎不可能在这场冲突中占领整个乌克兰，所以无论战场上的情况如何，这场战争都必须以乌克兰代表与俄罗斯代表坐下来讨论谁将作出什么让步什么而结束。
对领土的军事控制将为政治讨价还价提供依据。乌克兰不太可能交出俄罗斯根本无法进入的领土，俄罗斯也不太可能交出他们认为仍然可以控制的领土。但这样不会结束战争，只有双方就战争结束或一方完全毁灭达成共识才能做到这一点，而这在不久的将来都不太可能。、
The war does still have popular support in Russia
My overriding question is how do we actually know this?
For obvious reasons, data coming out of Russia about support for the war is not trustworthy and independent polling that I've seen done generally isn't super clear with how their information is actually gathered. I understand why they may not want to be super upfront about their methods but I haven't seen a ton of information about how people are determining that support for the war in Russia is still high.
“这场战争在俄罗斯仍然得到民众的支持”
我的首要问题是，我们如何真正了解这一点？
由于显而易见的原因，从俄罗斯传出的关于战争支持率的数据是不可信的，而且我所看到的独立民调一般都不太清楚他们的信息究竟是如何收集的。我理解为什么他们可能不想对他们的方法过于坦率，但我没有看到大量关于人们如何确定俄罗斯的战争支持率仍然很高的信息。
Polling in Russia is difficult, due to the authoritarian state. Which is not to say that people don't support the war, but it's hard to know how many and how fervently.
Suffice to say, Putin doesn't have to worry too much about the people at home and how they feel about him and the war.
The only way this war stops is if either Putin/Russia choose to withdraw, or are forced to through superior arms.
Without escalating to something like nuclear attacks on Ukraine, it doesn't seem like Russia has the capability to actually win at this point. And even that is suspect - the US has made it clear they would respond to nuclear weapons in Ukraine with overwhelming conventional force such that Russia deploying nukes would lead to a rapid loss, rather than any gains.
The fastest way to stop this war is to give Ukraine the weapons they need to retake and defend all of their territory, including Crimea. Holding back is just going to make the war drag on longer because Ukraine certainly won't surrender, they've made that clear, and Russia shows no signs of giving up
由于是专制国家，在俄罗斯进行民意调查是很困难的。这并不是说人们不支持战争，但很难知道有多少人支持和有多热衷于此。
可以说，普京不必太担心国内的人民以及他们对他和战争的看法。
这场战争停止的唯一途径是，要么普京/俄罗斯选择退出，要么通过扛不住优势武器被迫退出。
在不升级到对乌克兰进行核攻击的情况下，俄罗斯现在似乎没有能力真正获胜。甚至这也是值得怀疑的--美国已经明确表示，他们将以压倒性的常规力量对乌克兰的核武器作出反应，这样俄罗斯部署核武器将导致迅速损失，而不是任何收益。
停止这场战争的最快方式是给乌克兰提供他们需要的武器，以夺回和保卫他们的所有领土，包括克里米亚。退缩只会让战争拖得更久，因为乌克兰肯定不会投降，他们已经明确表示，俄罗斯也没有放弃的迹象。
Crimea is the one that worries me. It absolutely should be returned to Ukraine, but from what I understand many Russians including Putin believe that to actually be Russian proper, not part of Ukraine. They may hit back hard if the peninsula is retaken. Also worrying is Moldova may undergo a Russian backed coup; that's right on the other side of Ukraine across from Crimea, which would button up the south.
克里米亚是让我最担心的地方。它绝对应该归还给乌克兰，但据我了解，包括普京在内的许多俄罗斯人认为，它实际上是俄罗斯本土，而不是乌克兰的一部分。如果半岛被夺回，他们可能会猛烈反击。同样令人担忧的是，摩尔多瓦可能会经历俄罗斯支持的政变；那是在克里米亚对面的乌克兰的另一边，这将动摇乌克兰南部。
Russia is stuck in the Donbas quagmire. They've been besieging Bakhmut, a relatively small city that's right next to the parts of Donetsk under their "control," for months now. If this is the much-feared Russian offensive, it ain't off to a great start.
If they're doing this poorly in the Donbas, with a rumored Ukrainian counter-offensive coming in the spring, there's no way Russia can afford to start anything significant in Moldova. If I'm not mistaken, Russia was said to have over 10 thousand troops in Transnistria before the war started. Taking into account the fact that Russia is trying to avoid sending troops from its Western Military District to the frontline and is instead reassigning troops from other Districts and missions (including Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and even Nagorno Karabakh peacekeepers), I highly doubt they still have that large a force in Transnistria.
Russia can definitely cause some short-term chaos in Moldova, sure. It's small, vulnerable, isolated - much more than Ukraine was pre-war. But anything beyond low-level street violence and maybe a half-assed coup attempt? Nah.
俄罗斯深陷顿巴斯泥潭。几个月来，他们一直在围攻巴赫穆特，这是一个相对较小的城市，紧挨着他们“控制”的顿涅茨克部分地区。如果这是备受关注的俄罗斯攻势，那么它的开局并不顺利。
如果他们在顿巴斯的表现不佳，传闻乌克兰将在春季发动反攻，那么俄罗斯不可能在摩尔多瓦开始任何重大行动。如果我没记错的话，据说俄罗斯在战争开始前在德涅斯特河沿岸有超过一万名士兵。考虑到俄罗斯试图避免从其西部军区派遣部队到前线，而是从其他地区和特派团（包括阿布哈兹、南奥塞梯，甚至纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫维和人员）重新分配部队，我非常怀疑他们是否仍然在德涅斯特河沿岸拥有如此庞大的力量。
当然，俄罗斯肯定会在摩尔多瓦造成一些短期混乱。它很小、很脆弱、孤立——比战前的乌克兰要严重得多。但是，除了低级别的街头暴力和半途而废的政变企图之外，还会有什么？没有了。
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I am skeptical Russia can pull anything off in Moldova, since they seem on top of things. We'll see though.
I don't think Russia has the capability to occupy Moldova and then push from there into Ukraine, frankly. They are straight up Not Having A Good Time right now
As for Crimea, they simply won't have much of a choice. I am skeptical they would deploy nukes (against who?) facing the loss of Crimea
我怀疑俄罗斯能否在摩尔多瓦搞出什么名堂来，因为他们似乎失去了控制。我们拭目以待。
坦率地说，我不认为俄罗斯有能力占领摩尔多瓦，然后从那里推到乌克兰。他们现在已经很不好过了。
至于克里米亚，他们根本没有什么选择。我对他们会在失去克里米亚的情况下部署核弹表示怀疑（针对谁？）。
The US has also not-discreetly advertised that if Russia uses nuclear arms, they will not hesitate to completely destroy all of the Russian military in Ukraine as well as their navy with conventional force. The US wouldn't even have to lift a finger to do it -- Ukraine is completely surrounded by capable US/NATO forces.
美国明确地宣称，如果俄罗斯使用核武器，他们将毫不犹豫地用常规力量彻底摧毁俄罗斯在乌克兰的所有军队以及他们的海军。美国甚至不必动一根手指就可以做到这一点——乌克兰完全被强大的美国/北约部队围着。
Ukraine is completely surrounded by capable US/NATO forces.
Hence why Ukraine joining NATO was seen as detrimental to Russian national security.
“乌克兰完全被强大的美国/北约部队围着。”
这就是为什么乌克兰加入北约被视为对俄罗斯国家安全有害。
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I worry that's Putin's do or die point. If he loses Crimea, then I think he really would face being ousted by his own people. He may go all in.
我担心这是普京的生死攸关的时刻。如果他失去了克里米亚，那么我认为他真的会面临被自己的人民赶下台的局面。他可能会不顾一切。
If the front of the war shrinks entirely to just Crimea, I don't think any amount of NATO supported armament would allow Ukraine to take it. It seems very farfetched. I think the only plausible end to the war is either RU keeps Crimea or a North Korea style armistice where RU keeps the separatist regions.
如果战争的前线完全缩小到只有克里米亚，我不认为北约支持的任何数量的军备能让乌克兰拿下它。此举似乎非常牵强。我认为唯一合理的战争结局是，要么俄罗斯保留克里米亚，要么是北朝鲜式的停战，俄罗斯保留分离主义地区。
Russia doesn't have the broad support in Moldova to accomplish anything there. Crimea is an issue because any Russian leader, whether its Putin or not, is going to see Crimea as an opportunity to demonstrate their own strength.
俄罗斯在摩尔多瓦没有得到广泛支持，无法在那里取得任何成就。克里米亚是一个问题，因为任何俄罗斯领导人，无论是不是普京，都会将克里米亚视为展示自己实力的机会。
We can’t really know until the offensives of the spring and summer happen, if Ukraine advances to melitopol and cuts the Russian front in half, then we are looking at the possible retaking of crimea (unless politics gets in the way) At that point we see what Russia does and whether they admit defeat or escalate. Ukraine might also retake svatove and Kremina but history tells us that there is very little chance of them retaking much of the Donbas and former DNR and LPR territory. It’s too built up and defensible. Until this happens, there’s too many variable to predict what the end will look like with any accuracy at all
We can’t know what the territory will look like (and anyone who claims they can is lying) but whatever does happen, a ceasefire followed by negotiations in a neutral county is the most likely end. There might never be a peace settlement, more of a Korea style end.
在春季和夏季的攻势发生之前，我们无法真正知道结局，如果乌克兰推进到马里乌波尔，并将俄罗斯的战线切成两半，那么我们可以考虑夺回克里米亚（除非受到政治阻碍）。到那时，我们看看俄罗斯会怎么做，他们是承认失败还是继续升级。乌克兰也可能夺回斯瓦托夫和克里米纳，但历史告诉我们，他们夺回大部分顿巴斯和前DNR和LPR领土的可能性很小。它的建设和防御太强了。在这种情况发生之前，有太多的变数，根本无法准确地预测结局会是什么样子
我们无法知道领土会是什么样子（任何声称他们能知道的人都在撒谎），但无论发生什么，最有可能的结果是停火，然后在一个中立国家进行谈判。可能永远不会有和平解决，更多的是朝鲜式的结束。