智能手机出货量跌至2013年以来的最低水平，这是最大降幅
Smartphone shipments plunge to a low not seen since 2013 — their largest ever decline
译文简介
现在大多数人都有一部不错的智能手机了。买一部新手机是一种不必要的奢侈行为
正文翻译
A total of 1.21 billion smartphones were shipped in 2022, which represents the lowest annual shipment total since 2013 “due to significantly dampened consumer demand, inflation, and economic uncertainties,” IDC said.
国际数据公司IDC表示，2022年智能手机的总出货量为12.1亿部，这是自2013年以来的最低年度出货量，“原因是消费者需求大幅下降、通货膨胀和经济不确定性”。
Apple maintained its position as the number one smartphone maker in the world. The U.S. tech giant shipped 72.3 million iPhones in the fourth quarter, down 14.9% year on year, IDC said.
苹果保持着全球第一智能手机制造商的地位。IDC表示，这家美国科技巨头去年第四季度iphone出货量为7230万部，同比下降14.9%。
苹果保持着全球第一智能手机制造商的地位。IDC表示，这家美国科技巨头去年第四季度iphone出货量为7230万部，同比下降14.9%。
Samsung, the second-largest smartphone player, saw shipments decline 15.6% year on year to 58.2 million units.
第二大智能手机制造商三星的出货量同比下降15.6%，为5820万部。
第二大智能手机制造商三星的出货量同比下降15.6%，为5820万部。
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Most people have a capable smartphone nowadays. Buying a new one is an unnecessary luxury and, if they do upgrade, they'll likely hand down their previous phone on someone who would otherwise be another customer.
There is no such thing as infinite growth because there is a finite market.
现在大多数人都有一部不错的智能手机了。买一部新手机是一种不必要的奢侈行为，如果他们真的要升级手机，他们很可能会把以前的手机转给另一个消费者。
不存在无限增长这种事，因为市场是有限的。
Also, my rent is $400 more than last year and the cost of food has basically doubled.
而且我的房租比去年多了400美元，食品成本也翻了一番。
Mine went up 57%. Also they cut services and have been deferring non critical maintenance of the complex.
我的房租上涨了57%。此外，他们还削减了服务，并推迟了相关的非关键维护。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
My building is two years old, no heat, no package delivery any more, no elevator. No property manager, no maintenance crew.
I'm currently involved in a class action
我住的楼有两年了，没有暖气，没有快递，没有电梯。没有物业经理，没有维修人员。我目前正在参与集体诉讼。
What happens if the land lord starts targeting you after the complaint?
如果诉讼后房东开始针对你怎么办？
Thats illegal and you could sue, but we all know that takes time and money most people don't have.
这是非法的，你可以起诉他，但我们都知道这需要时间和金钱，而大多数人没有。
Yeah. Exactly. That's what happens when no one has money.
大家都没钱了就会发生这种情况。
"inflation is actually only up 8% when you exclude everything that increased in price" - Jeromy Powell, federal reserve
“如果剔除价格上涨的所有因素，通胀实际上只上升了8%” ——美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔
Thats the neat part. Companies raise the price of their products more than double and then blame inflation but they’re really just hiding behind inflation to gain more profit. Food prices didn’t increase by 8%. In my area it went up to 50% and some products even 100%.
各公司将产品价格提高一倍以上，然后归咎于通货膨胀，但实际上他们只是躲在通货膨胀的背后，以获得更多的利润。食品价格不是上涨8%。在我所在的地区，这个比例达到了50%，有些产品甚至达到100%。
It's been a LONG time since phones were making improvements every year that made everyone feel the NEED to upgrade. They kept doing it because they WANTED to. Now, with prices going up, and wages not really going up, people need their "spare" cash to buy groceries, and heat their homes. People are cutting back hard on luxury spending.
很长一段时间以来，手机每年都在改进，这让所有人都觉得有必要升级。他们一直这么做，是因为他们想这么做。现在，随着物价上涨，而工资没有上涨，人们需要“备用”的现金来购买食品杂货，为房屋供暖。人们正在大幅削减奢侈消费。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
I've been upgrading my Samsung phones every 2 years since 2013 and I realized that going from my Note9 to the Note20 didn't come with any genuinely needed upgrades besides the 5G. My N20 is 2.5 years old and won't be replaced until it has to due to malfunction.
自2013年以来，我每两年升级一次我的三星手机，后来我意识到，从Note9到Note20，除了5G之外，并没有什么是真正需要升级的。我的Note20已经用了两年半，除非发生故障，否则我不会换了。
Yeah I'm a "techie" who loves new gadgets, and every year or so I'm like... man, I should check out new phones!
And every year I do some research and realize "none of these are better than my s10".
I'll finally have to replace it this year, just because it's battery is really struggling these days. I honestly might just buy a new one if I can find one thats actually new for cheap.
我是一个喜欢新产品的“技术迷”， 每年我都会这样：啊，我应该看看新手机！
每年我都会做一些研究，然后发现“这些手机都比不上我的S10”。
今年我终于要把它换掉了，因为它的电池最近不行了。老实说，我可能会买一部新的，如果我能找便宜的新机。
You could just buy a new battery for your phone, Samsung phones are super easy to change batteries on
你可以直接给手机买一块新电池，三星手机换电池非常容易。
I took it to the "Authorized Samsung Repair" B&M shop earlier this month and got my battery changed in about an hour for like $130. Now I walk out of work with 40% left on my battery rather than 23%
这个月早些时候，我把它拿到 “授权三星维修”店，换了电池大约花了一小时，花了130美元。现在我下班时剩下40%的电量而不是23%。
You can replace the battery without too much hassle fyi.
Taking the back off a phone is nowhere near as difficult as manufacturers would have you believe, most parts are put together like lego and easily pop apart and new batteries are quite cheap.
It'll cost you like 100 bucks top.
If you do end up getting a new phone check out ASUS' offerings. They're really good and not very often considered.
换电池并不太麻烦。
拆下手机后盖并没有制造商想让你相信的那么难，大多数部件都像乐高一样组装在一起，很容易拆开，新电池也很便宜。
大概要花100美元。
如果你最终要买一部新手机，可以看看华硕的产品。它们真的很好，但不常被考虑。
I'm an Asus convert now, same specs at a more reasonable price than Samsung and Apple
我现在是华硕的粉丝，同样的规格，价格比三星和苹果更合理
And most importantly headphone jack.
They have the best cooling on the market for their smart phones, top of the line specs, can cram every single feature you'd want into a compact phone AND fit a headphone jack.
Yet according to apple and Samsung "there's just no room for a headphone jack in our phones anymore sorry :(" such utter bullshit.
最重要的是耳机插孔。
他们的智能手机具有市场上最好的散热性能，顶级的配置，可以把你想要的所有功能塞进一个袖珍手机中，并带有耳机插孔。
然而，根据苹果和三星的说法，“我们的手机里再也没有耳机插孔的空间了，对不起:( ”。 这完全是一派胡言。
rocking s9+ myself, battery not holding charge well, I was almost going to get an s10...but decide to bite the bullet and go with s23 when it comes out.
看着我的S9，电池充电不太行了，我差点就买了S10……但还是决定咬紧牙关，等S23上市的时候再买。
I was also gonna get the s23, but I like "smaller" form factors (since when is 6.1 inches small asking for a friend ) and the s23 has worse resolution than my galaxy s10 does!
You don't get 2k unless you get their fucking tablet that is the s23 ultra. So lame.
我也打算买s23，但我喜欢“更小”的尺寸，而且s23的分辨率比我的galaxy s10还差。
除非你买他们的s23 ultra平板电脑，否则没有2K分辨率。也太没说服力了。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
The reason they stopped offering insane resolutions on phones is basically there was very little difference in noticeable resolution for a HUGE hit to battery life.
You really don't notice the extra 200 pixels per inch but you do notice the 20% less battery at the end of the day.
Once you get up around 600 pixels per inch it's very difficult to notice the increase in pixel density.
By the way if you're looking for a replacement to your s10 strongly recommend the zenfone 9.
他们之所以停止在手机上提供更高的分辨率，原因是很难看出区别，反而会对电池寿命造成巨大影响。
每英寸多200像素你也看不出区别，但你确实会注意到一天结束时电池电量少了20%。
一旦达到每英寸600像素，就很难再注意到像素密度的增加。
顺便说一句，如果你正在寻找s10的替代品，强烈推荐华硕zenfone 9。
Honestly, if you're perfectly satisfied with it otherwise, ifixit sells everything you need to replace the battery yourself
老实说，如果你很喜欢你的旧手机，在ifxit网站上你能找到自己更换电池所需的一切。
Few people have said this, I honestly might. The only reason I do kinda want a new phone is that cameras have gotten a lot better in the last 4 years and I do take a lot of pics and, honestly, my phone is kinda a mess organization wise. Its not slowing it down or anything its just a bit cumbersome and I know I won't clean it, so getting a new phone is my best option lol.
I'll go play around with an S23 and maybe the zenfone someone else recommended but if I'm not wooed, I'll be happy to get another battery and ride this out 2 more years.
都没听人说过这个网站，我想要一部新手机的唯一原因是，在过去的4年里，相机变得更好了，我拍了很多照片，老实说，我的手机有点乱。它的速度没有变慢，就是有点臃肿，我知道我不会清理它，所以买一部新手机是我最好的选择。
我会试试S23，也许是其他人推荐的zenfone，但如果都不吸引我，我很乐意再买一块电池，再撑两年。
Yep, same position. My S22 is doing just fine for me, and while it's nice to see reports coming out that the next chip is faster and more efficient, I don't have any problems with my current phone that I'm trying to solve.
And since my salary is technically less than it was last year, which was also less than the year before, I don't have a spare $1,000 to throw at a phone that doesn't actually improve my life, so yeah. Keeping mine until it breaks.
我觉得我的S22还行，虽然很高兴看报道说下一代芯片速度更快、效率更高，但我目前的手机没有任何需要解决的问题。
而且严格说来，我的工资比去年少了，去年也比前年少了，所以我没有多余的1000美元去买一部并不能真正改善我生活的手机，所以我会一直用它，直到它坏掉。
Google got rid of unlimited photo storage with the Pixel 6 and above so upgrading from my Pixel 5 would legitimately be a step backwards.
谷歌的Pixel 6和更高版本取消了无限的照片存储空间，所以要我从Pixel 5升级无疑是一种倒退。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Wait, really? I have a pixel 2XL still and have being trying to decide to upgrade to the 7pro. This legit would be so annoying.
等等，这是真的？我还有一部Pixel 2XL，一直在考虑升级到7pro。这下就很烦人了。
Exactly. Phones have been getting stipped back gradually, bit by bit.
Replaceable batteries, headphone jack, expandable storage, included chargers and cables, dedicated finger print readers that were much more reliable, IR blaster on older Samsungs.
Features and hardware keep getting removed, whilst we're basically just offered incremental improvements year on year to mainly the camera and that's it. The designs don't change much, and the prices go up.
They want us to pay more for less and wonder why sales are low
手机逐渐停止了进步。
可更换电池、耳机插孔、可扩展存储、包括充电器和数据线、更可靠的专用指纹读取器、旧款三星的红外线冲击波。
功能和硬件不断被移除，而我们基本上只是每年在对相机进行一点改进，仅此而已。设计变化不大，价格却在上涨。
他们想让我们花更多的钱买更少的东西，现在却好奇销量为什么降低了。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
True, I still use my S10 from 2019, and will keep using it until it stops working.
从2019年开始我一直在用S10，我会继续使用，直到它停止工作为止。
S8 here, still going strong (battery life starting to get weaker, though).
我的是S8，仍然运行得不错（尽管电池寿命开始变弱）。
I totally feel this, used to buy new phones every 2 years or so, because I enjoyed and appreciated the amount of new features they were coming out with.
But Feb 2020 I got a samsung S20 and I havent even looked at newer phones almost 3 years out now.
Theyve run out of things to impress me with :p
我完全感觉到了，过去每隔两年左右我就会买一部新手机，因为我喜欢并欣赏他们推出的大量新功能。
但在2020年2月，我买了一台三星S20，到现在已经快3年了，我都没有看过新款手机。
他们已经没有能给我留下深刻印象的东西了。
How can they fail to impress if you haven't looked?
你都不看怎么可能让你印象深刻？
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
I dont live in a bubble fam, advertising is all around us.
I hear the headlines which typically contain their big features or see their ads on insta.
我又不是生活在泡沫空间里，广告无处不在。
我会看到包含有它们功能的新闻，或者在insta上看到它们的广告。
All that means is companies are going to start making their phones less durable or build them with more planned obsolescence.
这一切意味各公司将开始降低手机的耐用性，或者在制造手机时更多地采用计划性淘汰的方式。
Or simply kill them with flood of nonessential software additions that will eat all the compute power and ram of older phones.
或者干脆用大量不必要的软件来干掉手机，这些软件将消耗旧手机的所有计算能力和内存。
Making phones 1 time use only. Apple markets it as an exclusive feature and not-so-subtly suggests that you should call people poor if they cant keep up with the cost.
It is a roaring success and breaks records profits.
只制造一次性的手机。苹果公司将其作为一项独家功能进行营销，并毫不隐晦地暗示，如果人们无法负担成本，就应该称他们为穷人。
这是一次巨大的成功，打破了利润记录。
If ray tracing wouldnt have been made possible by Nvidia then Id still have no issues gaming on a 1070 for the next years and if my OLED tvs doesnt break (I hich of course it will in a few years for probably some of its cheapest parts failing…) then I dont think I need a new TV for at least a decade.
Technology is in such a great place now we see some plateauing
如果英伟达没有实现光线追踪，那么我在接下来的几年里用1070显卡玩游戏还是没有问题的，如果我的OLED电视机没有坏掉（它当然会在几年内坏掉，可能是最便宜的部件坏掉），那么我认为至少十年内我都不需要一台新电视机。
科技发展到如今的地步，现在开除出现一些停滞了。
Ray tracing isnt even used in most games, not worth upgrading for it. Im still using an 1080 and running games on high or ultra depending on the game.
在大多数游戏中，光线追踪并没有使用，不值得升级。我仍然在用1080，可以开到高或最高，这取决于游戏。
At some point everyone has a cellphone. And all of them are so good, that normal user doesn't NEED to upgrade for at least 3 years, maybe more.
The only thing that manufactures can do is to make batteries fail quicker and not be easily replaceable.
基本上所有人都有一部手机。所有手机都不错，普通用户至少3年甚至更长时间都不需要升级。
制造商唯一能做的就是让电池更快地失效，并且不易更换。
This always happens with technology because the evolution of the 'killer app' is slower than hardware.
Increasingly power hungry games drove the PC market for years, but now that we can get extremely realistic, even VR, performance out of 5yr old machines, it's getting tougher and tougher to sell faster and faster hardware.
We'll see phones settle out until there's something new to do with them. We've already got amazing cameras, 5G, 3D graphics, etc, etc ... why would I buy a new phone?
10 years ago, each new phone could do something the last phone couldn't.
这总是会发生的，因为“杀手级应用”的发展比硬件慢。
多年来，越来越耗电的游戏推动了PC市场的发展，但现在我们可以在5年的老机器上获得非常逼真的，甚至是VR的性能，因此想卖速度越来越快的硬件变得越来越困难。
我们会看到手机性能稳定下来，直到有新的功能需要它们来做。我们已经有了很棒的摄像头、5G、3D图像等等……我为什么还要买新手机？
十年前，每一部新手机都能做上一部手机做不到的事情。
Plus faster and faster hardware of the same class has gotten extremely more expensive. 800$ msrp class card is now 1200 msrp. 300 class card is now 600. etc. GPUs have become unobtainable, that is why most popular card on steam is 1650-1660 class because htey are good enough for 1080/1440p, but dont cost a kidney
此外，同类产品中越来越快的硬件价格也变得非常昂贵。800美元零售价级别的卡现在零售价是1200美元。300级别的卡现在是600。GPU已经快要买不起了，这就是为什么steam上最流行的卡是1650-1660级别的，因为它们运行1080/1440p时足够好，还不用卖肾。
Graphics cards still have a long way to go to get to realistic VR. There's still a huge market for better and faster ones, people just aren't buying them because manufactures jacked the prices to unaffordable levels.
要实现逼真的VR，显卡还有很长的路要走。更好、更快的显卡仍有巨大的市场，大家之所以不买，是因为制造商将价格推高到无法承受的地步。
We came to a realization this year: we upgrade our Samsungs every 2 years for NO reason. Whenever I've sold my 2 year old Samsungs, I've always said it looks new, works fast as new, battery lasts as long as new. Our Galaxy S10s are on year 3, like new, and because we did not upgrade, can get $50 plans with unlimited data + unlimited everything. I've dropped this thing like 50x (probably way more) and it never broke or got a scratch. Hold on to stuff longer put that extra money elsewhere.
今年我们认识到：我们每两年就会无缘无故地升级我们的三星手机。每当我卖掉我用了2年的三星手机时，我总是说它看起来很新，工作速度快，电池寿命长。我的Galaxy s10已经3年了，就像新的一样，因为我没有升级，所以可以获得50美元的套餐，无限流量+无限一切。这东西摔了可能50次（可能更多），它从来没有摔坏或刮伤。还是继续用吧，把钱花到别的地方。
The industry has really not had major innovation in years. I also think people wait for phones to be out for awhile so they can get a better deal.
I have an iPhone 12 and don't see any point of getting the 13 or 14. I'll probably just get my battery replace so it will be good as a new iPhone.
手机行业已经多年没有重大创新了。我认为人们也是在等手机上市一段时间，以便价格降低。
我有一部iPhone 12，看不出有什么必要买13或14。我可能会把电池换掉，这样它就和新iPhone一样好了。
Honestly, how much more can be done to a phone?
The only thing really driving them now is the camera and battery life, and it is hard to justify $1000+ for incremental improvements to those.
老实说，手机还能有多少新功能？
现在唯一推动它们的是摄像头和电池寿命，这点改进卖1000多美元实在是没有说服力。
Not much. They have hit a brick wall.
For me the biggest issue is battery life. If they could make a battery to last over 3 days of moderate use I’d upgrade. That is an issue in the battery Industry as a whole.
新功能不多了。他们碰壁了。
对我来说，最大的问题是电池寿命。如果他们能制造出可以持续3天以上适度使用的电池，那我会升级。这是整个电池行业的问题。
But they don’t want to give you a better battery. They want it to be just enough so that as soon as it degrades, it won’t last all day and then you’ll want a new phone
但他们不想给你更好的电池。他们希望电池刚好够用，这样一旦它退化，就不够你用一天，然后你就会想要一部新手机。
Good point. After two years the battery is terrible so most people just upgrade instead of replacing the battery.
说得好。两年后电池就很糟糕，所以大多数人就升级而不是更换电池。
The issue is they seal phones. Batteries should be swappable and user serviceable.
问题是他们把手机密封起来。电池应该是可以更换的和用户可以维修的。
I’m convinced the next thing is going to be satellite data service. Apple just added it for emergency calls for any new iPhone. T-Mobile claims that they are partnering with starling to add service.
I spend a lot of time in wilderness areas where I would gladly upgrade my 4 year old phone to have this. The only reason I haven’t gone to iPhone 14 with satellite SOS is out of hope that the next iteration will have satellite texting/data.
我相信接下来的新功能将是卫星数据服务。苹果刚刚为所有新iPhone添加了紧急呼叫功能。T-Mobile声称他们正在与starling合作以增加服务。
我经常呆在荒野地区，我很乐意升级我4年的手机来拥有这个功能。我还没有买带有卫星求救功能的iPhone 14的唯一原因，是希望下一代会有卫星短信/数据。
Keeping my phone until it breaks, will change the battery every 2-3 years.
我会一直用我的手机，直到它坏掉，每2-3年更换一次电池。
Because no one wants to pay thousands for incremental upxes. It’s getting insane.
因为没有人愿意为一点改进支付上千美元。这太疯狂了。
I’ve never bought a phone that was $1k+
Regular iPhones are $699. Pixels starts at $599. The prices are still reasonable as long as you don’t get the top of the line and the biggest versions.
我从来没有买过1千美元以上的手机。
普通iphone售价699美元。Pixels起价599美元。只要你不买最好的和最大的版本，价格还是合理的。
$600+ for a phone is still a shit ton.
You can get very functional smartphones for like $100-150. The camera and such on them is honestly only slightly worse for typical u use than ones 3x the price.
The first cellphone I bought was like $60 lol.
600多美元买一部手机还是太贵了。
你可以花100-150美元买到功能强大的智能手机。老实说，它们的摄像头之类的东西，与价格是它们3倍的手机相比只是差一点。
我买的第一部手机好像是60美元，哈哈。
It’s all relative I guess. $600 - $700 phones are priced reasonably for me. It has tons of features. Gets 4-6 years of security upxes. Life span is around that timefrx as well.
Budget phones are good for simple uses though.
我认为这都是相对的。600到700美元的手机对我来说价格是合理的。它有很多功能。有4-6年的安全更新。寿命也在这个时间范围内。
不过，经济型手机在简单使用的时候足够了。
I mean affordabiltiy is relative, I recently got a new phone and it was just over $800. I can afford it, thats fine, but its still very expensive for a phone. Lots of people couldn't afford or justify it. Even I sometimes wonder why I spent so much on a phone, not because of affordability but just because... its so damn much for a phone lol. My justification was that I use it all the time, and it doesn't affect my budget in any way and the last phone I got was like 5 years ago... so whatever... still though it seems excessive lol.
A lot of people are struggling with basic costs, and when a 4 year old and/or $150 phone can do basically 95% of what a $800+ phone can do... then yea theres a reason sales are dropping.
我认为负担能力是相对的。我最近买了一部新手机，价格刚刚超过800美元。我买得起，没关系，但一部手机卖这个价格还是很贵的。很多人都买不起，甚至我有时也会想，为什么我要花这么多钱来买一部手机，不是因为买得起，而是因为……一部手机就TMD这么贵，哈哈。我的理由是我会一直用它，而且它对我的预算没有任何影响，我最后一部手机是5年前买的……所以无论如何是要买了……尽管如此，这好像还是有点过分。
很多人都在为基本成本而犹豫。当一部4年或150美元的手机基本上就可以达到800美元以上手机功能的95%时，那么是的，销量下降是有原因的。
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The phones actually cost a lot of money to make though. It's more of a situation where you buy something to last you a long time. It's not like people need to upgrade their car every year either for the same reason.
然而实际上手机的制造成本很高。现在的情况更像是你买的东西可以用很久。出于同样的理由，人们也不会每年升级他们的汽车。
I mean there’s really no point in upgrading to a new phone year after year for very minor upxed tech. It’s just wasting money in my opinion
我认为，为了一些小的技术更新而年复一年地换新手机真的没有任何意义。在我看来，这只是在浪费钱。
Is this really a surprise? When groceries become unattainable to a lot of folks these luxuries aren’t the priority
这真的值得惊讶吗？当许多人买不起杂货时，这些奢侈品就不是优先考虑的了
I have had my iPhone X since Jan 2018. The battery is struggling but generally lasts well enough. It still does everything I need it to.
So far 5 years and I will probably keep it for 6 or 7.
With high end phones costing AUD1500+ they just aren’t technology that gets upgraded every year or two anymore like the AUD500-AUD700 flagship phones of a decade ago.
我的iPhone X是2018年买的。电池有点问题，但大体上还够用。它仍然能满足我的一切需要。
到目前为止5年了，我可能会再用1-2年。
随着高端手机的价格超过1500澳元，人们不再像十年前的500至700澳元旗舰手机那样每年或两年更换一次了。