历史上蝴蝶效应/混沌理论最伟大的例子是什么？
What are the greatest examples of the butterfly effect / chaos theory in history?
译文简介
朋友，你知道美国标准铁路轨距（铁轨之间的距离）是4英尺8.5英寸吗？
正文翻译
What are the greatest examples of the butterfly effect / chaos theory in history?
历史上蝴蝶效应/混沌理论最伟大的例子是什么？
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Say friend, did you know that the US Standard railroad gauge (distance between the rails) is 4 feet, 8 1/2 inches.
That's an exceedingly odd number. Why was that gauge used?
Because that's the way they built them in England, and the US railroads were built by English expatriates.
I see, but why did the English build them like that?
Because the first railway lines were built by the same people who built the pre-railroad tramways, and that's the gauge they used.
Well, why did they use that gauge in England?
Because the people who built the tramways used the same jigs and tools that they used for building wagons, which used that wheel spacing.
Okay! Why did their wagons use that odd wheel spacing?
Because, if they tried to use any other spacing the wagon wheels would break on some of the old, long distance roads. Because that's the spacing of the old wheel ruts.
So who built these old rutted roads?
The first long distance roads in Europe were built by Imperial Rome for the benefit of their legions. The Roman roads have been used ever since.
And the ruts?
朋友，你知道美国标准铁路轨距（铁轨之间的距离）是4英尺8.5英寸吗？
这是一个非常奇怪的数字。为什么会使用这种轨距？
因为那是他们在英国建造铁路的方式，而美国的铁路是由英国侨民建造的。
我明白了，但为什么英国人要这样建造铁路呢？
因为第一条铁路线是由建造铁路之前的有轨电车的人建造的，他们用的就是这种轨距。
那么，为什么他们在英国使用这种轨距？
因为建造有轨电车的人使用了与建造马车相同的夹具和工具，而马车也使用了这种轮距。
好吧! 为什么他们的马车使用那种奇怪的轮距？
因为，如果他们试图使用任何其他的间距，在一些古老的长距离道路上，马车车轮会断裂。因为那是古老车轮车辙的间距。
那么，是谁建造了这些古老的车辙路呢？
欧洲最早的长距离道路是由罗马帝国为其军团的利益而修建的。罗马的道路一直沿用至今。
那么这些车辙呢？
Thus, we have the answer to the original question. The United States standard railroad gauge of 4 feet, 8 1/2 inches derives from the original specification for an Imperial Roman army war chariot.
And the motto of the story is Specifications and bureaucracies live forever.
So, the next time you are handed a specification and wonder what horse's ass came up with it, you may be exactly right. Because the Imperial Roman chariots were made to be just wide enough to accommodate the back-ends of two war-horses.
So, just what does this have to do with the exploration of space?
最初的车辙是由罗马战车的车轮造成的，其他人因为害怕搞坏了他们的马车而不得不配合这些车辙造自己的轮距。由于战车是为罗马帝国制造或是由罗马帝国制造的，因此它们在车轮间距方面都是相似的。
这样，我们就有了对最初问题的答案。美国的标准铁路轨距为4英尺8.5英寸，来自于罗马帝国军队战车的原始规格。
这个故事的启示是：规格和官僚主义永远存在。
因此，当你下次接到一个规格并想知道是什么马屁股想出来的时候，你可能是完全正确的。因为罗马帝国战车的宽度刚好可以容纳两匹战马的后端。
那么，这与太空探索有什么关系呢？
The railroad from the factory runs through a tunnel in the mountains. The SRBs had to fit through that tunnel. The tunnel is slightly wider than a railroad track, and the railroad track is about as wide as two horses' behinds.
So a major design feature of what is arguably the world's most advanced transportation system was originally determined by the width of a horse's ass.
好吧，关于铁路轨距和马屁股的故事还有一个有趣的延伸。当我们看到一架航天飞机停在发射台上时，主燃料箱两侧附有两枚大型助推火箭。这些是固体火箭助推器，或称SRBs。SRB是由硫基橡胶化学公司在犹他州的一家工厂制造的。设计SRB的工程师们可能更希望把它们做得更胖一些，但SRB必须用火车从工厂运到发射场。
从工厂出发的铁路要穿过山区的隧道。SRB必须适合通过该隧道。隧道比铁轨略宽，而铁轨大约有两匹马的屁股那么宽。
因此，可以说是世界上最先进的运输系统的一个主要设计特点最初是由马屁股的宽度决定的。
I am sorry to have to down vote. This is a great story but unfortunately it has been debunked several times; it’s not true. See Snopes: Railroad Gauges and Roman Chariots
很抱歉不得不给你点个踩。这是一个很棒的故事，但不幸的是，它已被揭穿多次；这不是事实。参见 Snopes的这篇文章：铁路轨距和罗马战车
The role that this beautiful, virtually unknown and completely innocent woman would have in putting into motion the two World Wars of the 20th century.
This is Sophie Chotek. Duchess of Hohenberg.
And I bet that virtually none of you has ever heard of her.
She was the woman that the Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria, heir to the Austro-Hungarian empire, fell in love with and then married.
So what?
She wasn’t royalty. A mere Duchess.
Which meant that in the unbelievably snobbish norms of the day, even the future monarch of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, could not have her, his own wife, accompany him in official royal ceremonies. And he hated that. Can you blame him?
The Archduke was an autocrat, but he had one redeeming quality— he loved his wife deeply.
There was but one exception to that stupid rule. Which is that she could be by his side in public while he was acting in his military capacity as Inspector-General of the Austro-Hungarian Army.
Which was the main reason why the Archduke decided to go inspect the army in Bosnia (an entirely unnecessary and optional choice), so that his wife could ride by his side in public.
这位美丽的、几乎不为人知的、完全是无辜的女人在推动20世纪的两次世界大战方面所起的作用。
这就是苏菲-乔特克。霍恩堡公爵夫人。
我敢打赌，你们中几乎没有人听说过她。
她是奥匈帝国的继承人、奥地利大公斐迪南大公爱上并迎娶了的女人。
所以呢？那又怎样？
她并不是皇室成员。仅仅是一位公爵夫人。
这意味着在当时令人难以置信的势利规范中，即使是奥匈帝国未来的君主，也不能让她--他自己的妻子--陪同他参加正式的皇家仪式。而他讨厌这种情况。你能怪他吗？
大公是一个独裁者，但他有一个可取之处——他深爱着他的妻子。
这个愚蠢的规则只有一个例外。那就是当他以奥匈帝国军队监察长的军事身份行事时，她可以在公开场合出现在他身边。
这就是大公决定去波斯尼亚视察军队的主要原因（这是一个完全没有必要、可有可无的选择），只是这样他的妻子就可以在公开场合坐在他身边。
And he then got assassinated by a Serbian nationalist, Gavrilo Princip who literally ran up to the open-top car and shot both of them at point blank range, killing them instantly.
Austria demanded an unconditional apology from Serbia and was determined to humiliate her.
Serbia considered the assassination to be awful, but had no real official hand in it. So she refused to apologize.
Austria then declared war on Serbia.
Russia as Serbia’s biggest ally, then declared war on Austria.
Germany then as Austria’s ally declared war on Russia.
France and Great Britain then as Russia’s allies declared war on Germany.
It is imperative to note here that except for Austria declaring war on tiny Serbia (which she never imagined would spiral completely out of hand in such spectacular fashion!)…
而且他相当愚蠢地坐在一辆敞篷车上，以便所有人都能看到他们两个人在一起。
然后他被一个塞尔维亚民族主义者加夫里洛-普林西比暗杀了，他冲到敞篷车前，近距离射杀了他们两个，双双当场毙命。
奥地利要求塞尔维亚无条件道歉，并决心羞辱她。
塞尔维亚认为这次暗杀是可怕的，但官方确实没有参与其中。所以她拒绝道歉。
奥地利于是向塞尔维亚宣战。
俄罗斯作为塞尔维亚最大的盟友，随后向奥地利宣战。
德国随后作为奥地利的盟友向俄罗斯宣战。
法国和英国随后作为俄罗斯的盟友向德国宣战。
在此必须指出，除了奥地利对小小的塞尔维亚宣战（她从未想到会以如此壮观的方式完全失控！）......
Great Britain, France and Russia on the one hand as the Triple Entente, Germany and Austria-Hungary on the other as the Central Powers.
Talk about a chain reaction!
And then ladies and gentlemen, you had World War 1.
Followed by the collapse of the German economy. (No, the Treaty of Versailles was not as punitive as people think.)
The collapse of the German economy brought that lovely SOB, Adolf Hitler to power.
And the rest as they say, is history.
Arguably one of the greatest instances of the “butterfly effect” in all of history. Try topping that.
And it all started with the marriage of an emperor to a relative commoner.
For the sake of love.
所有这些国家之间的其他宣战都不是可以自己控制的"选择"--他们受到安全条约的约束，在发生对其盟友的侵略时，保证会互相救援。
英国、法国和俄罗斯一方面作为协约国，另一方面德国和奥匈帝国作为同盟国。
什么叫连锁反应啊!
然后，女士们、先生们，我们来到了第一次世界大战。
紧接着是德国经济的崩溃。(不，《凡尔赛条约》并不像人们想象的那样具有惩罚性）。
德国经济的崩溃使那个“可爱的”混蛋阿道夫-希特勒上台。
正如他们所说，剩下的就是历史了。
可以说，这是历史上"蝴蝶效应"的最大实例之一。试着去超越它。
而这一切都始于一个皇帝与一个相对平民的婚姻。
为了爱的缘故。
Actually, even if Archduke Ferdinand wasnt assassinated in Sarajevo, WW1 was still inevitable. Pretty much all of the Great European Powers were in complicated alliances and were in the middle of a massive arms race. Not to mention, they ALL viewed each other suspiciously. Even if Archduke Ferdinand wasnt killed, there were still a ton of other sparks just waiting to light up the “powderkeg of Europe”.
And lets not talk about the earlier conflicts involving colonies.
事实上，即使费迪南大公没有在萨拉热窝被刺杀，一战仍然是不可避免的。几乎所有的欧洲大国都处于复杂的联盟之中，并处于大规模的军备竞赛之中。更不用说，他们都对对方抱有怀疑态度。即使斐迪南大公没有被杀，仍有大量的其他火花在等待着点燃 "欧洲火药桶"。
我们更不要谈早期涉及各殖民地的各种冲突了。
26 September 1983. the nuclear early warning system of the Soviet unx reported the launch of multiple USAF Minuteman intercontinental ballistic missiles from bases in the United States. It was the duty of Lieutenant-Colonel Stanislav Petrov of the Soviet Air Defences to immediately radio in the report. The USSR would immediately respond with a nuclear counter strike. So, why did we not all die in the 1983 nuclear holocaust? Stanislav knew the politburo would panic and order an immediate counterstrike. But, he suspected the report was wrong. [he was right. The early warning system misidentified sunlight bursting through clouds as nuclear missiles.] Stanislav was obviously not a fanatical Soviet Socialist. Had someone else been on duty instead, we could have all perished once the US received reports of the Soviet missile strike and also responded in kind.
1983年9月26日。苏联的核预警系统报告说，美国空军从美国的基地发射了多枚民兵洲际弹道导弹。苏联防空部队的斯坦尼斯拉夫-彼得罗夫中校的职责是立即用无线电报告这一情况。苏联将立即进行核反击。那么，为什么我们没有在1983年的核大屠杀中全部死亡？斯坦尼斯拉夫知道政治局肯定会惊慌失措，下令立即进行反击。但是，他怀疑这份报告是错误的。[他是对的。早期预警系统将冲破云层的太阳光误认为是核导弹。］ 斯坦尼斯拉夫显然不是一个狂热的苏维埃社会主义者。如果换成别人来值班，一旦美国收到苏联导弹袭击的报告，也会做出相应的反应，我们就可能全部灭亡。
If anyone deserves a public statue it is Lieutenant-Colonel Stanislav Petrov. Instead, hardly anyone has heard about him and knows what he did, or rather didn’t do.
如果说有谁值得立一个公共雕像，那就是斯坦尼斯拉夫-彼得罗夫中校。相反，几乎没有人听说过他、知道他做了什么，或者说没有做什么。
Never heard that one before. Doesn’t sound likely - a system that would misinterpret “sunlight bursting through clouds”? That would have to be from below cloud level in the Soviet unx. Radar wouldn’t react to sunlight and an optical system sounds silly (curvature of the planet, too much interference). There is a similar unverified story on the US side. The US built BMEWS (ballistic missle early warning system), a powerful radar system. According to the story, shortly after it was turned on, it detected a massive Soviet missle launch, which turned out to be the rising moon.
以前从未听说过这个故事。听起来也不太可能--一个会误解"阳光冲破云层是核弹"的系统？那苏联这个系统真是烂到家了。雷达不会对太阳光产生反应，而光学系统听起来很傻（地球的曲率，干扰太多）。在美国方面也有一个类似的未经证实的故事。美国建造了BMEWS（弹道导弹预警系统），一个强大的雷达系统。根据这个故事，在它开启后不久，它就探测到了苏联的一次大规模导弹发射，结果只是月亮升起了。
But Andy. A spark is a spark. I’m glad whatever happened happened because of love (and not a million other cliche’d reasons). Although it did surprise me.
The whole thing sounds so Shakespearean. *grin*
但是，安迪。其他的火花也只是火花。我很高兴是因为爱（而不是其他一百万个陈词滥调的理由），无论后面发生了什么。虽然它确实让我感到惊讶。
整个事情听起来很像莎士比亚的故事。*咧嘴一笑*
That's what they said about the Cold War. Neither side trusted each other, both were engaged in an arms race, and everyone at the time was convinced that an atomic (&, later, nuclear) war was inevitable. No matter what happened, the USA and the USSR would be permanent political entities well into the future…
Except everyone was wrong. War was not inevitable, and the USSR imploded.
这就是人们对冷战的评价。双方都不信任对方，都在进行军备竞赛，而且当时每个人都相信，一场原子弹（及后来的核战争）是不可避免的。无论发生什么，美国和苏联在未来都将是永久的政治实体......
只是每个人都错了。战争并不是不可避免的，而苏联也解体了。
That’s a bad example. The Cold War only ended with the fall of the USSR. It was inevitable that the two remaining superpowers after WWII, the US and the USSR, would be in opposition. It’s possible that if nuclear warheads had not been invented, the two countries would have had a direct shooting war at some point. That wasn’t an option since it would have led to the total annihilation of both sides. So instead, they fought proxy wars in Korea, Vietnam, and elsewhere.
那是一个不好的例子。冷战直到苏联解体才结束。二战后剩下的两个超级大国美国和苏联不可避免地对立起来。如果没有发明核弹头，两国可能会在某个时候直接开战。那不是一个选择，因为它会导致双方的彻底毁灭。因此，他们反而在朝鲜、越南和其他地方打了代理人战争。
Of course it was an option. When the North Vietnamese (allies of the USSR) invaded the South (US allies) it could easily have led to nuclear war. But, both the US and the USSR instead avoided using nukes and the war was fought with conventional weaponry as well as chemical weapons. This happened during the Cold War. The Korean War was the same. Soviet Allies against American Allies, and it could have escalated into a nuclear war… But instead, both the US and the USSR actively supported their allies and avoided the use of nuclear weapons. The same happened with… I think you get the point. Wars were still breaking out between US and USSR allies, but both the US and USSR (while avoiding open conflict with each other) supported their allies without using nukes.
当然这是一个选择。当北越（苏联的盟友）入侵南方（美国的盟友）时，很容易导致核战争。但是，美国和苏联都避免使用核武器，战争是用常规武器和化学武器进行的。这发生在冷战时期。朝鲜战争也是如此。苏联盟友反对美国盟友，它本可能升级为核战争……但相反，美国和苏联都积极支持他们的盟友并避免使用核武器。同样的事情发生在……我想你已经明白了。美国和苏联的盟友之间仍在爆发战争，但美国和苏联（同时避免彼此公开冲突）在不使用核武器的情况下支持他们的盟友。
But in every single proxy war, they didnt use nukes which meant nuclear warfare wasnt completely inevitable. Look what happened in the Korean War. Pres Truman fired and denounced MacArthur for suggesting to use nukes because…HE DIDNT WANT TO CAUSE A NUCLEAR WAR.
但在每一场代理人战争中，他们都没有使用核武器，这意味着核战争并非完全不可避免。看看朝鲜战争发生了什么。杜鲁门总统解雇并谴责麦克阿瑟建议使用核武器，因为……他不想引发核战争。
The Korean war was not against ”American Allies” but againt an UN alliance.
朝鲜战争不是针对"美国盟友"，而是针对联合国。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Actually the North Koreans were supplied both by equipment and combatants by the Chinese, not so much the USSR.
事实上，朝鲜人的装备和战斗人员都是由中国人提供的，而不是由苏联提供的。
And who was supplying the equipment to the Chinese? The USSR.
谁在向中国人提供设备？苏联。
That’s really a poor analogy. In the Cold War, both sides knew they could not win an actual war. But in 1914 Europe, all these countries believed they could kick everyone else’s ass, and at least four of them were pretty eager to get the hostilities going. They all really, really hated each other.
这真是一个糟糕的比喻。在冷战中，双方都知道他们不可能赢得一场真正的战争。但在1914年的欧洲，所有这些国家都相信他们可以踢别人的屁股，而且其中至少有四个国家非常急切地想让敌对行动开始。他们都非常、非常憎恨对方。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
It does not matter that the USSR failed; Russia will continue being an Enemy to the West since before the Crusades ended the Roman Catholics sacked Constantinople and enabled the collapse of the Byzantine empire into the hands of Islamic jihadi armies.
苏联失败了并不重要；俄罗斯将继续成为西方的敌人，因为在十字军东征结束之前，罗马天主教徒洗劫了君士坦丁堡，使拜占庭帝国崩溃，落入伊斯兰圣战军的手中。
There’s one key difference. We knew what h-bombs could do, and that nuclear war would likely end the world as we know it.
The European powers WANTED a war, because they subscribed to a weird mutant form of Darwinism and thought conflict would make them a better, stronger society.
They thought wrong.
有一个关键的区别。我们知道氢弹的威力如何，而且核战争很可能会终结我们所知道的世界。
欧洲列强在一战时希望发生战争，因为他们认同一种奇怪的变异了的达尔文主义，认为冲突会使他们成为一个更好、更强大的社会。
他们想错了。
Agreed. “Chain-ganging” only acts as a trigger but does not explain the underlying causes.
In a world of 5 major powers, it is best to be in a group of three. Thus Bismarck spent his life maintaining Germany’s alliances with Austria and Russia. When Wilhelm II took power, however, he discontinued Bismarck’s balancing strategy and started to challenge England’s naval superiority. Around the same time, Germany also failed to manage the diverging interests between Austria and Russia and sided with Austria during the Crimean War resulting the disintegration of the Holy Alliance. Without Russia, Germany and Austria were not enough to balance the Triple Entente.
同意。"连锁反应"只能作为一个导火索，但不能解释根本原因。
在一个有5个大国的世界里，最好是三足鼎立的局面。因此，俾斯麦一生都在维护德国与奥地利和俄国的联盟关系。然而，当威廉二世上台后，他中止了俾斯麦的平衡战略，开始挑战英国的海军优势。大约在同一时间，德国也未能处理好奥地利和俄国之间的利益分歧，在克里米亚战争中站在了奥地利一边，导致神圣同盟解体。没有俄国，德国和奥地利就不足以平衡三国协约。
You are right, but still this answer is a beautiful piece of writing - I at least was not aware of the Archduke's love angle!
你是对的，但这个答案仍然是一篇美丽的文章--我至少没有意识到大公的爱情这个角度!
Franz Ferdinand challenged Serbia by attending Austrian military exercises just off the border with Serbia. Completely unnecessarily, he showed the power of Austria and represented the authority of the state who annexed Bosnia early in 1908.
(Gavrilo Princip vas a Serbian from Bosnia).
弗朗茨-费迪南通过参加奥地利在与塞尔维亚交界处的军事演习向塞尔维亚发起挑战。完全没有必要，他展示了奥地利的力量，代表了1908年初吞并波斯尼亚的国家的权威。
(加夫里洛-普林西比是一名来自波斯尼亚的塞尔维亚人）。
It’s generally agreed that WWI was inevitable, i guess. Yet the alliances were there to prevent war, not to start it. The German hawks did think the timing was ideal. So they sent the peace-loving Kaiser on a vacation and did their best to sabotage the British diplomatic efforts. Still they had many opponents, not least the socialists, who were growing in influence. If they had overcome the hawks, the window of opportunity could have passed by without an outbreak, the socialists and pacifists could have grown even stronger and war could have been prevented altogether.
我想大家都知道一战是不可避免的。然而，联盟的存在是为了防止战争，而不是为了发动战争。德国的鹰派确实认为时机很理想。所以他们让爱好和平的德皇去度假，并尽力破坏英国的外交努力。但他们仍有许多对手，尤其是社会主义者，他们的影响力在不断增加。如果他们战胜了鹰派，机会之窗就会在没有爆发的情况下过去，社会主义者和和平主义者就会变得更加强大，战争就会被完全阻止。
Two points:
Archduke Franz Ferdinand was not the ruler of the Austro-Hungarian Empire but rather the heir to the throne (technical term: “heir presumptive”).
Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria - Wikipedia
Second point, is there any reason to believe that if Sophie had been allowed to accompany him in a normal state visit, Franz Ferdinand still would have chosen not to visit Sarajevo on that fatidic day? In other words, wouldn’t the murder of Franz Ferdinand alone (without wife) not have created exactly the same repercussions?
有两点：
1/ 弗朗茨-斐迪南大公不是奥匈帝国的统治者，而是王位的继承人（专业术语："准继承人"）。
奥地利大公弗朗茨-斐迪南 - 维基百科
2/ 第二点，是否有理由相信，如果允许苏菲陪同他进行正常的国事访问，弗朗茨-斐迪南就不会在那个致命的日子访问萨拉热窝了吗？换句话说，弗兰茨-费迪南单独被谋杀（没有妻子）难道就不会造成完全相同的反响吗？
I do remember this being used as an analogy in a TV Series wherein Archduke Ferdinand was considered the ‘Lynchpin’ whose demise could trigger a massive war. So ‘some people’ wanted him dead to initiate the series of events that would lead to the world war. If we were to beleive this ‘'conspiracy theory”, then your second point makes sense. He would have been killed anyway.
我确实记得这在一部电视剧中被拿出来用作类比，费迪南大公被认为是"关键"，他的死亡可能引发一场大规模战争。因此，"一些人"希望他死，以引发一系列事件，从而导致世界大战的爆发。如果我们相信这种"阴谋论"，那么你的第二点就有意义了。无论如何，他都会被杀。
He would have still gone to Sarajevo but not travelled in an open car. That could have saved him.
他还是会去萨拉热窝，但不会乘坐敞篷车。这本可以救他一命。
Sophie: ‘Oh Franz, dear, I have my period. Let's not ride today.’
And we wouldn't have had two World Wars.
苏菲：'哦，亲爱的弗朗茨，我大姨妈来了。咱今天就不要出门了'。
这样我们就不会有两次世界大战了。
The incident wasn’t the cause of war, it was a mere excuse. If it hadn’t happened something else would be the cause.
该事件不是战争的原因，它只是一个借口。如果它没有发生，那么也有其他借口。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Ferdinand’s cousin, Crown Prince Rudolf, fell in love with a baroness - but he had already been forced to marry another. Maria Vetsera was 17, he was 30. They were found dead in bed at castle Mayerling and it was assumed they had both committed suicide together. This is what catapulted rude Ferdinand into the position of crown prince. He insulted the Serbs and in a way provoked his own assassination.
Mayerling incident - Wikipedia
Several movies have been made about Rudolf and Maria’s doomed romance, most famously Mayerling
斐迪南的表弟鲁道夫王储爱上了一位女男爵--但他已经被迫娶了另一位。玛丽亚-维泽拉当时17岁，他30岁。他们被发现死在梅耶林城堡的床上，人们认为他们是一起自杀的。这就是将粗鲁的费迪南推上奥地利王储之位的原因。他侮辱了塞尔维亚人，并在某种程度上招致了自己的暗杀。
梅耶林事件 - 维基百科
关于鲁道夫和玛丽亚注定失败的恋情，已经拍了好几部电影，最著名的是《梅耶林》。