二十年对宏伟计划来说并不算多，但由于变化越来越快，我们可以预期在未来几年会出现一些相当具有颠覆性的技术创新。以下是 2030 年代应该出现的 10 项令人惊叹的未来主义技术。

Two decades is not a lot in the grand scheme of things, but owing to accelerating change we can expect to see the emergence of some fairly disruptive technological innovations in the coming years. Here are 10 mindblowingly futurist technologies that should appear by the 2030s.

作为一个未来学家，我的工作是预测未来。但我绝对讨厌预言时间表，而且你很少会发现我很少预言某种特定的技术会在何时出现。对我来说技术的可行性比什么时候实现更重要。

As a futurist, it’s my job to make predictions. But I absolutely hate timelines, and you’ll rarely find me making claims about when some specific sort of technological wizardry will make an appearance. Feasibility interests me more than dates on a calendar.

但是，对于未来20年内有望看到的东西，我们已经逐渐明晰。我在下面列出的所有技术百分百会实现。
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But the fog is starting to clear on what we can expect to see within the next twenty years. All the technologies I’ve listed below have a better than 50/50 chance of being actualized.

你们中的一些人可能会抱怨我有点保守，没有提及AGI（通用人工智能）、分子组装纳米技术、蜂巢思维、IA（智能增强）、激进的寿命延长技术、强大的航天器推进引擎、有用的量子计算机、意识上传或全人脑模拟--只因我认为这些东西要到很晚才会实现。
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Some of you may complain that I’m being a bit conservative by not including AGI (artificial general intelligence), molecular assembling nanotechnology, hive minds, IA (intelligence augmentation), radical life extension, powerful spacecraft propulsion engines, useful quantum computers, mind uploads, or whole human brain emulations — but I just don’t see these things coming to fruition until much later.

上个月，研究人员在相隔数千英里的两只大鼠的大脑之间建立了电子链接。

Last month, researchers created an electronic lix between the brains of two rats separated by thousands of miles.

好吧，以下是我们在2033年之前应该能实现的东西。


Alright, here’s what we should expect by the year 2033:

顶图：未来城市的概念艺术，作者：罗伯特·D·布朗，来自CG Hub。

Future city concept art by Robert D. Brown, via CG Hub.

1. AI个人助理

1. Artificially Intelligent Personal Assistants

我已经不耐烦地等这项创新有一段时间了。微软的Clippy项目做了一些尝试，这个办公室助手已被证明烦人而无用。更近的例子是苹果公司为其iPhone开发的Siri，也是一个智能助手，可以对特定的语言提示做出反应并访问互联网。但与20年后的产品相比，这俩啥也不是。


I’ve been impatiently waiting for this one for quite some time now. Microsoft got the ball rolling on this concept with Clippy, the office assistant that proved to be more annoying than useful. More recently, Apple developed SIRI for its iPhone, an intelligent assistant that can respond to specific language cues and access the Internet. But this is nothing compared to what’ll be available two decades from now.

展望未来，我们可以期待我们的个人助理对自然语言做出充分的反应，包括口语和我们的个人特质。由于无处不在的计算机（之后再说），我们的个人助理将可以全天候与我们保持联系。
更重要的是，这些代理将表现出令人难以置信的通用智能水平。我们甚至能够与他们进行对话。他们将了解我们的一切，包括我们的行为，我们的倾向，我们的偏好，以及我们对某些情况的典型应对方式。相应地，他们将是我们的虚拟克隆人。从本质上讲，它们将是人类的代理人，通过远程全息化身体的形式在互联网和现实世界中代表我们。他们将为我们写电子邮件，预订约会，执行琐碎的思考任务，甚至预测我们的需求。当然，我们仍将对他们代表人类所做的决定负责--所以我们需要谨慎对待我们给予虚拟克隆人多少自主权。

Looking ahead, we can expect our personal assistants to fully respond to natural language, including colloquialisms and our personal idiosyncrasies. And owing to ubiquitous computing (which we’ll look at next), our personal assistants will be accessible to us 24/7.
What’s more, these agents will exhibit an uncanny level of general intelligence. We’ll even be able to have conversations with them. They will know everything about us, including our behaviors, our tendencies, our preferences, and our typical ways of responding to certain situations. Accordingly, they’ll be our virtual clones. In essence, they’ll be our proxy selves, representing us on the Internet and in the real world by taking the form of telepresent holographic avatars. They’ll write emails for us, book appointments, perform menial thought tasks, and even anticipate our needs. Of course, we’ll still be responsible for the decisions they make on our behalf — so we’ll need to be careful about the degree of autonomy we give our mind clones.

2. 无处不在但不可见的计算机

2. Computers Are Everywhere — But Unseen

如前所述，普适计算 --也被称为 "普存计算 "和 "遍布式计算"--正在到来。今天，我们的汽车、手机、玩具，甚至冰箱里都已经有了计算机。但这些计算机仍然非常明显，我们要经常拿着它们，或者使用键盘向它们输入信息。


As noted, ubiquitous computing — also known as “pervasive computing” and “everyware” — is coming. Already today we have computers in our cars, our phones, our toys, and even our fridges. But they’re still very obvious. We often have to hold them. Or use keyboards to input information into them.

图片。詹妮弗-达莫尔设计的名为 "Move "的充满传感器的普拉提衬衫。

Image: The sensor-laden pilates shirt called "Move" designed by Jennifer Darmour.

然而，由于如火如荼的微型化革命（比如微机电系统，即MEMES的发展），这些设备正在稳步小型化。在短期内，我们将生活在一个如《Rainbows End》一书描绘的世界里，信息处理设备将几乎无处不在，但完全不可见--与我们的环境融为一体。这些计算机将出现在我们的衣服里，我们的时尚配饰里，甚至是我们的隐形眼镜里。而要使用它们则需要自然语言和触觉技术（即触觉反馈）。或者更进一步，这些设备将被赋予某种程度的 "环境智能"，可以在特定条件下自主运行。
因此，到2030年，我们将完全被计算机包围，但完全注意不到这些计算机的存在。

These devices, however, are getting steadily smaller owing to the miniaturization revolution that’s in full swing (e.g. the shift towards microelectromechanical systems, or MEMS). In short order we’ll be living in aRainbow’s End world, where information processing devices will be virtually everywhere, but completely invisible — absorbed into our surroundings. These computers will be in our clothes, our fashion accessories, and even in our contact lenses. And to use them we’ll use natural language and haptic technologies (i.e. tactile feedback). Or better yet, these devices will be endowed with a certain level of “ambient intelligence” to help them perform autonomously under specific conditions.
So by the 2030s we’ll be completely surrounded by computers, but utterly unaware of their presence.

3. 具有数字化脑的虚拟动物

3. Virtual Animals with Digital Minds

对人类大脑的全脑模拟还很遥远，可能要到21世纪下半叶才能实现。但在这之前，我们将能够模拟更简单的生物体的大脑。今天已经诞生了OpenWorm项目，目的是将线虫的大脑数字化。


Whole brain emulations of human minds are quite a ways off, and likely won’t appear until the second half of the 21st Century. But in the stage leading up to this we’ll be able to emulate the brains of much simpler organisms. Already today there’s the OpenWorm project, an effort to digitize the brain of a nematode worm.

在未来20年内，我们肯定能够模拟其他生物体的大脑，如蚂蚁和蜜蜂。谁知道呢，到那时我们甚至可能开始模拟简单的哺乳动物的大脑，比如小鼠。这样我们将创造出基本上 "生活 "在计算机中的虚拟动物。而有一天，也许甚至就在2030年代，这些数字大脑将被上传到机器人身上。

Within the next two decades, we will most certainly be able to emulate the brains of other organisms, like ants and bees. And who knows, by this point we might even be able to start emulating the brains of simple mammals, like mice. But by virtue of doing so, we will have created virtual animals who essentially “live” inside a computer. And someday, perhaps even by the 2030s, these digital brains will be uploaded to robotic avatars.

4. 第一个被批准的大规模地球工程项目

4. The First Sanctioned Megascale Geoengineering Project

气候变化的影响越来越明显，包括超级风暴、历史最低水平的海冰、猖獗的野火，和创纪录的高温。无论我们喜欢与否，我们将在不久的将来着手进行地球工程项目。而事实上，相关研讨已经开始了。


The effects of climate change are getting increasingly hard to ignore, whether they manifest as superstorms, historically low levels of sea ice, rampant wildfires, or record temperatures. Whether we like it or not, we will embark on geoengineering projects in the near future. And indeed, the conversations have already started.

举个例子，25位科学家最近宣布，现在是时候开始研究实际的地球工程方案，以扭转猖獗的碳排放的影响。他们的特殊解决方案是云白化--在海洋层积云中播撒大量的微小海水颗粒。他们几乎已经准备好开始了，但他们需要国际支持才能合法地进行实验。而有的人甚至已经开始非法进行地球工程了。

Take, for example, the 25 scientists who recently declared that the time has come to start working on actual geoengineering solutions to reverse the effects of rampant carbon emissions. Their particular solution is cloud whitening — the seeding of marine stratocumulus clouds with copious amounts of tiny sea water particles. They’re pretty much ready to get started, but they’ll need international support to do it legally. Others have even started to do it illegally.

5. 星际互联网

5. An Interplanetary Internet

星际互联网相当简单，但同样意义深刻。到2030年代初，私营企业或政府机构将会造访火星——至少人们期望如此。但无论谁先到达那里，他们首先要做的事情之一就是建立一个与地球的互联网连接。为什么不呢？探险者--（或定居者，如果他们参与了 "火星一号 "项目，）--将需要访问和共享信息。哦，当供应不足时他们也可能想在网上购买一些东西。

This one’s fairly straightforward, but no less profound. Someone from Earth will reach Mars by the early 2030s — whether it be private enterprise or a government agency. At least we freakin’ hope so! But regardless of who gets there first, one of the first things they’ll do is set up an Internet connection with Earth. And why not? The explorers — or settlers, if they’re part of theMars One project — will both want and need to access and share information. Oh, and they’ll probably want to purchase something while they’re there when supplies run low.

6. 第一种真正的抗衰老干预疗法

6. The First True Anti-Aging Intervention

市场上有大量声称 "抗衰老 "的产品，但基本都是化妆品或彻头彻尾的骗局。现在没有任何东西可以减缓或逆转衰老的影响，甚至白藜芦醇药丸或雷帕霉素也不能。
但这种情况将在2030年代发生改变。未来学家和衰老学家并不完全确定干预疗法可能是什么形式。可能是一种基因调整，与辛西娅-凯尼恩（Cynthia Kenyon）在蛔虫身上进行的将其寿命延长一半以上的调整类似。事实上，目前科学家正在努力研究超级百岁老人的基因结构，以分离出长寿基因。具体疗法可能涉及恢复人类端粒长度或修复我们的线粒体，也可以从目前在小鼠身上进行的实验中吸取经验。

There are a crap-ton of products on the market that claim to be “anti-aging,” but each and every one of them is either cosmetic or a total scam. There is nothing available right now that can either slow down or reverse the effects of aging, not even resveratrol pills or rapamycin.
But this is set to change by the 2030s. Futurists and gerontologists aren't entirely sure what form this intervention could take. It could be a genetic tweak, not unlike the one Cynthia Kenyon performed on roundworms to extend their lifespans by more than half. And indeed, there are efforts currently underway to map the genetic constitutions of supercentenarians to isolate the factors that make them so robust. It might involve therapies to restore the length of our telomeres, or replenish our mitochondria. Or it could draw from any number of experiments currently being conducted on mice.

7. 有权自主杀人的机器人

7. Autonomous Robots with a License to Kill

自主杀人机器的崛起是严峻和可怕的前景，但这类几乎肯定会被发明。


The rise of autonomous killing machines is a grim and frightening prospect, but it’s virtually guaranteed to happen.

我们已经在一些武器系统中安装了具有不同程度的自主性的设备，比如巡航导弹和爱国者导弹。海军舰艇上的 "宙斯盾系统 "有一个自主模式，依靠强大的计算机和雷达来跟踪和引导武器摧毁敌方目标。还有三星Techwin的遥控哨兵机器人--目前部署在朝鲜边境的非军事区。而美国的packbot/REDOWL系统可以很容易地进行修改，以自行解决狙击手的问题。
尽管有人呼吁停止开发无需人类操作就能识别目标并杀戮的机器士兵，但只要能减少人类伤亡，军事领袖们将毫不犹豫地使用机器人。更重要的是，这些机器人最终将在一些体能和认知领域超过人类。开发杀人机器人会是即将到来的军备竞赛的一部分。

We already have various levels of autonomy in a number of weapons systems, including cruise and patriot missiles. The Aegis Combat System, which is found aboard naval ships, has an autonomous mode in which it uses powerful computers and radars to track and guide weapons to destroy enemy targets. There’s also Samsung Techwin's remote-operated sentry bot — which is currently deployed in the Korean DMZ. And the U.S. packbot/REDOWL system could be easily modified to take out snipers on its own.
Despite calls to halt the development of machine-soldiers that identify and kill without human input, military leaders will not hesitate to use a robot when a human life can be spared. What’s more, these machines will eventually exceed human capacities across a number of physical and cognitive domains. They may also be developed as part of a pending arm’s race.

8. 在实验室中培育器官（和肉）。

8. Our Very Own Lab-Grown Organs (and Meat)

我们正经历生物技术革命，它的好处终于开始显现。个性化医疗将在未来几十年内出现，医生将能够根据我们的遗传体质专门开出药物。生物学家也即将可以用我们自己的干细胞培养分化的组织。这最终将使我们能够培育自己的器官，包括心脏--不需要捐赠者，而且几乎不可能有排异反应。

We are in the midst of the biotechnology revolution, the benefits of which are finally starting to appear. Personalized medicine will emerge in the coming decades, where physicians will be able to prescribe medicines tailored specifically to our genetic constitutions. Biologists are also exceedingly close to being able to generate differentiated tissue from our very own stem cells. This will eventually allow us to grow our very own organs, including the heart — no donors needed, and with virtually no chance of rejection.

这些生物技术可能与3D打印结合起来使用。科学家们最近3D打印了一个利用嵌入式电子设备的控制论耳朵。我们甚至可能能够打印人类胚胎干细胞和合成组织。这些打印机已经被用来生产一个功能齐全的人工耳蜗和支架。
哦，我们可以种植和/或打印人造肉的那一天即将到来--最有可能在2030年代。

These biotechnologies may work in tandem with additive manufacturing. Scientists recently 3D-printed a cybernetic ear that utilizes embedded electronics. We may even be able print human embryonic stem cells and synthetic tissue. These printers have already been used to produce a fully functional artificial cochlea and splint.
Oh, and the day is coming — most certainly by the 2030s — when we can grow and/or print artificial meat.

9. 每户一个的个人工厂
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9. Personal Fabricators in Every Home

也许不是每户一个--但个人工厂肯定会成为像今天的DVD播放器和传统2D打印机一样无处不在的东西。毋庸置疑，3D打印机将像技术专家所预测的那样具有颠覆性。
事实上，在自己家里生产自己的产品的能力将打破传统的制造模式。一开始，我们将不得不为这些物品付费，以下载其图纸。但最终，由于开放源码运动，许多项目将被分享和免费提供。
除了日常用品和电子产品外，这些打印机还可以生产手枪（这不是个好主意）、疫苗（大流行期间我们再也不必离开家去接种疫苗了）、自我组装的机器人和仿生人。最终，这些打印机将完全不需要人类指导。

Okay, maybe not every home — but it’s certainly poised to be the kind of thing that may be as ubiquitous as DVD players and traditional 2D printers are today. And there’s very little doubt that 3D printers are poised to be as disruptive as the techno-cognoscenti are predicting.
Indeed, the ability to produce our own products in our very own homes will upset traditional models of manufacturing. At first, we’ll have to pay for these items to download the specs. But eventually, owing to the open source movement, many of these items will be shared and available for free.
And in addition to day-to-day items and electronics, these printers could generate handguns(which is not such a hot idea), vaccines (we won’t have to leave our homes to get inoculated during a pandemic), self-assembling robots, and androids. And eventually, these printers won’t need human guidance at all.

10. 海洋将为世界供水

10. The Oceans Will Quench the World’s Thirst

工业规模的海水淡化有望在 2030 年代成功。由于太阳能技术的进步，即经济实惠且可扩展的光伏电池的发展，我们将能够建造大型集中式太阳能发电厂 (CSP)， 利用余热去除海水中的盐分。专家预测，从 2020 年代开始，最迟可能到 2030 年代，日益增长的淡水资源短缺可能被解决。到 2030年及以后，CSP海水淡化厂的普及可能会减少不可持续的供水，并促进大部分饮用水生产的发展。

Industrial-scale desalination is poised to make an appearance by the 2030s. Owing to advancements in solar power, namely the development of affordable and scalable photovoltaic cells, we will be able to build massive concentrated solar power plants (CSPs) that utilize the residual heat to strip ocean water of its salt. Experts predict that the growing freshwater deficits could be increasingly covered starting in the 2020s, and possibly as late as the 2030s. The spread of CSP desalination plants will likely reduce non-sustainable water supply and inspire the development of most of potable water production by the year 2030 and afterwards.

这篇文章最先发表于io9。作者：乔治，发表于2013年8月10日
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处