全世界都不生孩子了，这次轮到印度-网帖翻译-龙腾网

Alok Goel
Lives in India
Balaji and many authors have given good analysis and covered the answer very well. However I will like to share some aspects that are a lot more different than what has been covered and are futuristic and prudent in planning of population.
Thanks for detailed analysis and the charts by the authors. I have been analyzing the population issue for long and will share some points that are different from the present day thinking on population numbers.

Balaji和许多答主给出了很好的分析，并很好地回复了问题。然而，我想分享一些与所涵盖的内容大不相同，并且在人口规划方面具有前瞻性和审慎性的方面。
感谢作者的详细分析和图表。我长期以来一直在分析人口问题，我将分享一些不同于当今对人口数量的思考的观点。

Population number is not the problem but the population density is.
Urban areas and more so the metros are getting heavily dense whereas the non urban areas getting sparse. In fact in India in the hill states many villages are barren, almost all residents have moved out.
Every nation needs to work out how many people of different age group and gender they need in next 20 years and beyond to be most efficient.
India eg with the current reducing birth rate will suffer by 2080 what Europe and USA are suffering that is aging population without local or native replacement. We then would have to seek import of people.

人口数量不是问题，人口密度才是问题。
城市地区的人口正越来越密集，而非城市地区的人口却越来越稀疏。事实上，在印度的丘陵地带，许多村庄都已荒废，几乎所有的居民都已迁出。
每个国家都需要计算出在未来20年及以后需要多少不同年龄组和性别的人才能发挥最大的效率。
在印度，随着目前出生率的下降，到 2080 年印度将遭受欧洲和美国正在遭受的人口老龄化而没有当地或本地的人口来替代。之后，我们将不得不寻求引进人口。

This is to be noted that in case of calamities and wars it is the males in age group of 18 to 40 that die the most. This is the most productive and critical age group that needs most focus.
Another aspect is that like a crop with say 3 month cycle population is a 20 year cycle to be ready for society.
Population lixed to birth is a social mind set also. Just few decades back our Parents and grand parents used to have 5 to7 or more kids. It reduced to 2 or 3 in our generation and now it is one or none.

值得注意的是，在发生灾难和战争时，18至40岁年龄组的男性死亡最多，这是最有生产力和最需要关注的关键年龄组。
另一个方面是，就像一种具有3个月周期的作物一样，人口需要20年周期才能为社会做好准备。
与出生有关的人口也事关一种社会心态。就在几十年前，我们的父母和祖父母曾经有5到7个或更多的孩子。在我们这一代人中，它减少到了两三个，而现在是一个或没有。

The Niti Aayog and the Govt must consider these issues and we should not find ourselves on the wrong side of the history in future.
Error in population planning is very costly and the nation has to pay a very heavy price. Eg Europe, USA and Japan suffer from aging population now because of wrong policies adopted in 1950s. China has erred by deciding on single child policy and is now trying to undo that.
The solution is to have replacement birth rate and ensure density of population is suitable distributed geographically. That further demands developing suitable infrastructure in non urban areas also.

Niti Aayog和政府必须考虑这些问题，我们不应该在未来发现自己站在历史的错误一边。
人口规划失误的代价是十分高昂的，国家必须付出沉重的代价。由于20世纪50年代采取的错误政策，欧洲、美国和日本现在都面临人口老龄化问题。中国在决定独生子女政策上犯了错误，现在正试图取消这一政策。解决办法是要有更替出生率并确保人口密度在地理上的适当分布，这进一步要求在非城市地区发展适当的基础设施。

Parth Mahour
Trying to Gather Knowledge at Every step of my Life，Lives in Noida, Uttar Pradesh, India2021–present
For Starters, Replacement level mean a level of reproduction in which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next, It's roughly 2.1 Children per Women.
In India it has fallen to 2.0, Which means it's below the replacement level, thus That population will grow older and Decrease in number, Which is not necessarily a Good thing as one might assume;

首先，更替水平是指人口从一代人到下一代人能够完全更替自己的生育水平，大约是每名妇女生育2.1个孩子。
在印度，这一数字已经下降到2.0，这意味着它低于更替水平。因此，印度的人口将会变老，数量将会下降。正如人们可能认为的那样，这不一定是一件好事。

Though Due to the population stabilising currently at 2, We by virtue of our Large Youth base will continue to have a young population for the next 2–3 decades and this will help us in rapid development, Accelerated Economic Growth and Eradicating Poverty as we no longer have to worry about having a Ever increasing Population being redundant to our growth.

虽然由于这一数字目前稳定在2，但凭借我们庞大的年轻人基础，我们在未来20-30年将继续拥有年轻的人口，这将有助于我们实现快速发展、加速经济增长和消除贫困，因为我们不再需要担心不断增长的人口成为我们发展的负担。

We will still Become the Largest Nation by Population, but it would be later than What we Expected and since we would continue to Enjoy a Youthful Population for a Longer time, With Proper Planning and investment of Resources India can be one of the Most Developed Country in the Near future.

我们仍将成为世界上人口最多的国家，但这将比我们预期的要晚，而且由于我们将在更长的时间内继续享有年轻的人口，在适当的规划和资源投资下，印度可以在不久的将来成为最发达的国家之一。

However, Due to the population stabilising, We will see a Increasing Population of Senior Citizens after 2–3 decades, as Indian population grows older it will pose a Challange to our country as many developed countries are facing now;
So We need to Make proper use of the most Important resource we have now:Human Resource and use it to Make India Great Again.

然而，由于人口趋于稳定，20-30年后，我们将看到老年人口增加，随着印度人口的老龄化，这将对我国构成挑战，正如许多发达国家现在面临的那样；
因此，我们需要适当利用我们现在拥有的最重要的资源：人力资源，并利用它使印度再次伟大。

We need to Stop Encouraging People to have less children (But not start to Encourage them to have more!) Which will help us to slow down the decrease in TFR. We don't want to Increase it, Just that it may decrease slowly.
In conclusion I feel that Indian TFR going below Replacement level is a Mixed Bag of opportunities, We need to use it to our Advantage and Grow as a nation to become a World Leader.

我们需要停止鼓励人们少生孩子（但也不要开始鼓励他们多生！），这将帮助我们减缓生育率的下降。我们不想提高它，只希望它能下降得慢点。
总之，我觉得印度的生育率低于替代水平是一个好坏参半的机会，我们需要利用它来发挥我们的优势并作为一个国家成长为世界的领导者。

Jean-Marie Valheur
political aficionado & former journalist，Lives in Paris1987–present
Ravi Vaish
, MA English Literature & History (1990)
It means India is at a crossroads. Countries around it have already found itself in economic peril due to rapidly declining birth rates — South-Korean, Taiwan, China, Japan, all more or less having their future workforces melt away like snow in the sun while the percentage of elderly retired citizens grows larger and larger… India can either harness its natural potential now or go overboard with more ‘family planning incentives’ to further halt the birth rate to drop below replacement levels.

这意味着印度正处在十字路口。由于出生率的迅速下降，韩国、台湾地区、中国、日本等周边地区已陷入经济危机，随着老年退休公民的比例越来越大，它们未来的劳动力或多或少会像阳光下的雪一样融化……印度要么现在就利用其自然潜力，要么采取更多的“计划生育激励措施”来进一步阻止出生率降至更替水平以下。

Choice is yours, really. The moral panic about “muh overpopulation!” is quite absurd and misguided at this point — the decline has actually just began to set in. Middle class Indians have already seen dramatically lowered birth rates for decades now and haven’t been anywhere near “replacement levels” for ages. Muslim birth rates have also gone down significantly and continue to decline. It’s at this point that a smart leader asks himself: “Do I continue whatever it is we’re doing or do I anticipate the inevitable decline and stop spreading panicky doomsday scenarios about overpopulation?”

选择权在你们手里。当下关于“人口过剩”的道德恐慌是非常荒谬和有误导性的-印度的人口下降实际上早已开始。几十年来，印度中产阶级的出生率已经大幅下降，而且很长时间以来都没有接近“更替水平”。穆斯林的出生率也显著下降，并在继续下降。在这种情况下，一位聪明的领导者会问自己：“我是继续做我们正在做的事情，还是预测到不可避免的人口下降并停止传播关于人口过剩的恐慌性末日情景？”

I don’t think it’s a particularly hard choice to make at this point in time — if you’re on the right track, you’re on the right track. Simple as that. You beat the trends, you beat overpopulation. You still have a decent birth rate, for now, and you better enjoy it while it lasts because when it drops below 2 or even below 1.5 things will get rough. Anticipate that NOW, and not in twenty years when its too late.

我不认为这是一个特别困难的选择，在这个时候-如果你处在正确的轨道上，那么你就走在了正确的道路上，就这么简单。你将战胜趋势，你将战胜人口过剩。目前，你们仍然有一个不错的出生率，你们最好在它还能够持续的时候享受它，因为当它下降到2甚至1.5以下时，事情会变得很艰难。你们最好现在就预见到这一点，不要等到二十年后，到那时已经太晚了。

Balaji Viswanathan
CEO of Invento Robotics，Lives in Bengaluru, Karnataka, India2016–present
Brij Mohan Nandwani
, M,.A. History, Jammu City, Jammu and Kashmir, India (1986) and
Saurabh Sharma
, M.Sc. PGDBM & Science, Symbiosis (2001)
This is an excellent thing. This is what I have been talking about the last decade on Quora — India would achieve birthrate reduction without any forcible population control. Unlike China, this reduction has been gradual and thus any effects from an aging population would not be seen for another 50–60 years. By that time, we would have robots everywhere.

这是一件很棒的事情。这就是我在过去十年里在Quora上所谈论的——印度将在没有任何强制人口控制措施的情况下实现出生率的下降。与中国不同，这一下降是渐进的，因此印度的人口老龄化的任何影响在未来50-60年内都不会出现。而到那时，我们将到处都有机器人。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

This is the projected demographics of India in 2050. India is well-balanced across all age groups and the majority of them would be in the 20–50 age of high productivity. With better fitness and medical advancements, the 50-year-old then might be able to compare with the 35-year-old now. This would be a perfect population mix for us to become a developed nation.

以下是印度2050年的人口统计预测。印度在所有年龄组中都很平衡，其中大多数人都将处于20-50岁的高生产率年龄段。随着身体素质和医疗水平的提高，届时50岁的老人或许可以与现在35岁的人相提并论。这将是我们成为发达国家的完美人口组合。

25 million babies are born in India every year. That is a massive number. We don’t have enough infrastructure to nourish them all and educate them in the best way. With the drop in fertility rates, we can now protect the children and mothers better. We can educate them better, helping them become productive members 20 years from now, aligning with the goal of being a developed nation by 2050.

印度每年有2500万婴儿出生，这是一个巨大的数字，我们没有足够的基础设施来养活他们并以最好的方式教育他们。随着生育率的下降，我们现在可以更好地保护儿童和母亲。我们可以更好地教育他们，帮助他们在20年后成为有生产力的成员，与印度2050年成为发达国家的目标保持一致。

By having fewer children, the women can get to work and that allows for far better family and economic growth. The infrastructure of our cities will also get a breather as they don’t have to serve a constantly increasing population. A stabilizing population would allow us to improve the quality of public facilities.
In all religions other than Muslims, the fertility rate is less than 2. However, improvements are seen even in Muslims. There is progress there too. If the trend continues, their fertility will align with the Hindus. Thus, by 2050 the religious mix of India is likely to be the same as today.

通过少生孩子，妇女可以参加工作，从而实现更好的家庭和经济发展。我们城市的基础设施也将得到喘息，因为它们不必为不断增长的人口服务。稳定的人口将使我们能够提高公共设施的质量。
在除穆斯林以外的所有宗教群体中，他们的生育率都低于2。然而，即使在穆斯林中，生育率也有所改善。如果这种趋势继续下去，他们的生育率将与印度教徒保持一致。因此，到2050年，印度的宗教构成可能与今天一样。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

Overall, the investments in social development the past few years might be bearing fruit.
Life expectancy is up, although pollution is limiting the rise. With more investments in EV, solar etc, air pollution should fall in the next decade and should cause the life expectancy to go up even more.

总的来说，过去几年对社会发展的投资可能正在取得成果。
尽管污染限制了预期寿命的增长，但印度人的预期寿命仍在上升。随着对电动汽车、太阳能等的更多投资，空气污染将在未来十年下降，并将导致预期寿命进一步提高。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

India is slowly fixing its issues one by one. In the next 5 years if it spends substantially more on child development, it will be well set for the future.
I’m just quite amused that most are worried about a population drop. Of all the things India has to worry, this is the last. India has enough people and will have enough people for a long, long time.

印度正在慢慢地一个接一个地解决自己的问题。在未来的5年里，如果政府在儿童发展上投入更多的资金，它将为未来做好准备。
我只是觉得很有趣，因为大多数人都担心人口下降。我认为在印度不得不担心的所有事情中，这是最后一件。印度有足够的人口，而且在很长很长一段时间内都会有足够多的人。

Tyler
Well, like with all upheavals that take place (and thanks for the A2A, btw!), it can be said that catastrophising and panicking about them is unhelpful and unnecessary.
From now on, the government of India will simply have to calmly assess every challenge and obstacle that comes up over time, and respond with the most reasonable and fitting steps, so that the transition into a time of population decline happens smoothly and seamlessly as possible.

就像所有已经发生的剧变一样，可以说，对此感到焦虑和恐慌并没有帮助，也没有必要。
从现在起，印度政府只需冷静地评估随着时间推移而出现的每一个挑战和难题，并以最合理、最恰当的步骤作出回应，以便尽可能顺利、无缝地过渡到人口下降时期。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处

Even with a net decline, there are still going to be births, so there will always be someone to perform essential tasks, of course.
And honestly: we all knew that this day would come eventually.
Some scientists predicted that it wouldn't begin until 2050, while others believed the population of this or that country would not start to actively decline until 2100.
But it is a pretty good chunk of population scientists who have regarded it as a guarantee that the population levels will eventually start to go down.

即使印度出现人口净下降，也仍然会有婴儿出生，因此，总会有人来担负大任。
老实说，我们都知道这一天终将到来。
一些科学家曾经预测这一趋势要到2050年才会开始，而另一些科学家则认为这个或那个国家的人口要到2100年才会开始下降。
但相当多的人口科学家认为人口水平最终必然会开始下降。

Despite this, we have indulged in absolutely absurd levels of panic, with plenty of otherwise reasonable people — even right here on Quora — insisting that failing to remain with a net population growth forever is going to cause society to crumble, the sky to fall, and make the Nazis come back to life riding on the backs of dinosaurs.
In other words, they've been very silly and indulgent.

尽管如此，我们仍沉溺于绝对荒谬的恐慌之中，许多原本理智的人——甚至就在Quora上——坚持认为，如果不能永远保持人口的净增长将导致社会崩溃，届时天塌下来，纳粹将骑在恐龙背上复活。
换句话说，他们非常愚蠢。

Yes, population decline will bring its own host of obstacles, and yet like with everything, it's always simply up to people to remain calm and do what is necessary, in the present, to help themselves and help each other.
In Canada, for example, our government recently started to grant colleges the funding to instruct students in personal support work, because not enough people were enlisting, even with our net population growth.
So now people will sign up to work as personal support workers who never would have taken an interest in that, because our government has made it attractive for people.

没错，人口的下降会带来一系列的难题，然而就像所有事情一样，人们需要保持冷静，做自己该做的事情，在当下需要做的就是帮助自己并互相帮助。
例如，在加拿大，我们的政府最近开始向大学提供资金，以指导学生学习个人护理，因为即使我们的人口还在净增长，也没有足够的人从事这一职业。
因此，原本绝对不会对此感兴趣的人现在会签约成为个人护理员，因为我们的政府已经让它对人们产生了吸引力。

Now we can more comfortably handle population decline in Canada (when it finally arrives here, and it will since if India is soon having theirs, and most of our population increases come from immigration, then once they start to decline, the west will too).
We can better handle it because originally, there would have been like 30% of the Canadian population working in the service industry, and let's say 15% working in the healthcare industry.

现在，我们可以更轻松地应对加拿大的人口下降（它会在印度发生人口下降时发生，因为我们的大多数人口增长来自移民，所以一旦他们开始下降，西方也会如此）。
我们可以更好地应对它，因为大约有30%的加拿大人在服务业工作，让我们假设有15%在医疗行业工作。

But in response to the problem of more and more “old boomers", our government created a circumstance where healthcare work is more alluring to people, so now it will be that many people leave the service industry (which is a wasteful industry anyway) and migrate to the healthcare industry, which is very important and essential.
So this was a good step to take, and shows a good bit of logic for a change.

但是，为了应对越来越多的“老婴儿潮一代”的问题，我们的政府创造了一种医疗保健工作对人们更具吸引力的环境。因此，现在会有许多人离开服务业（无论如何，这是一个浪费性的行业）转而进入医疗保健行业，这是非常重要和必要的。
因此，这是一个很好的步骤，并显示了一个良好的逻辑变化。

Because you see, our government has simply grasped that we were not going to have enough personal support workers in 15–20 years when all the boomers are old — and so our government simply created a solution to prepare for that eventuality.
For once, it did not simply indulge in the usual absurd course of action, which is to keep everything the same, but simply have more babies.
That was always a very crude, barbaric, and stupid answer.

因为你看，我们的政府已经意识到，在15-20年内，当所有的婴儿潮一代都老了的时候，我们将没有足够的个人护理人员，所以我们的政府创造了一个解决方案来为这种情况做准备。
这一次，它并没有简单地沉溺于通常的什么都不做，而是简单的生更多孩子的荒谬的做法。
这一直都是一个非常粗放、野蛮和愚蠢的做法。

Now, a more elegant solution is required, because instead of simply heaping more and more people into the world, so that enough of them will maybe end up enlisting for the jobs needed to keep society functioning, governments simply have to find a way to make everything work with the people we already have.

现在，我们需要一个更优雅的解决方案，因为政府不能简单地把越来越多的人塞进这个世界，以便他们中的足够多的人最终可能会加入维持社会运转所需的工作，而是必须找到一种方法，让我们已经拥有的人能够做任何事情。

Catastrophising is absolutely not necessary, even with population decline, because the simple fact of the matter is that our people must only remain calm, assess what is going on, fathom what problems exist on the horizon, and then leverage our capabilities and taxes and infrastructure and technology (and so on) to greet those issues head on with a victor's readiness.
And so long as our humankind is willing to embrace the challenges with a victor's readiness, then it will always overcome everything, because that's just how it is.

即使人口减少，也绝对没有必要为此感到焦虑，因为一个简单的事实是，我们的人民必须保持冷静，评估正在发生的事情，了解未来存在的问题，然后利用我们的能力、税收、基础设施和技术（等等），以胜利者的心态去迎战这些问题。
只要我们愿意以胜利者的心态去迎接挑战，那么它将永远能够克服一切，因为事实就是这样。

全世界都不生孩子了，这次轮到印度

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