如果有一天印度尼西亚变得强大,澳大利亚会怎么想?
If someday Indonesia becomes powerful, what will Australia think?译文简介
这不是一个是与否的问题,而是一个时间问题
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If someday Indonesia becomes powerful, what will Australia think?
如果有一天印度尼西亚变得强大,澳大利亚会怎么想?
如果有一天印度尼西亚变得强大,澳大利亚会怎么想?
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Lives in Indonesia
It's not a matter of if but when
Indonesia is well on its way to becoming a powerful force within the Indo-Pacific region. From Canberra's perspective, the rise of Indonesia is both a blessing and a curse for Australia.
If we look at the map of Australia, you’ll notice that Australia is pretty isolated from the rest of the world. This is a blessing for Australia as they are pretty far away from any major power and thus a threat towards the Australian mainland is pretty low, This is where Indonesia comes in. For Australia, there are two things that protected Australia from any foreign threat particularly the major power of Asia like China, Japan, Russia, etc are the Australian Defence Forces and Indonesia.
(生活在印度尼西亚)
这不是一个是与否的问题,而是一个时间问题
印度尼西亚正在成为印太地区的一支强大力量。从堪培拉的角度来看,印尼的崛起对澳大利亚来说既是一种祝福也是一种诅咒。
如果我们看一下澳大利亚的地图,你会发现,澳大利亚与世界其他地区相当孤立。这对澳大利亚来说是件好事,因为他们离任何大国都很远,因此对澳大利亚本土的威胁很低,这就是印尼的作用。对澳大利亚来说,有两样东西可以保护澳大利亚免受任何外国威胁,特别是亚洲的主要大国,如中国、日本、俄罗斯等,那就是澳大利亚国防军和印度尼西亚。
Indonesia is by far the most powerful neighbor Australia has, and this would continue to be the case in the future. A powerful Indonesia would mean that the threat that Australia faces will now be right on their doorstep, instead of several thousand miles away like Japan and China. To make it even worse for Australia there’s nothing between Indonesia and Australia that can protect Australia, unlike between Australia and China or Japan.
从地理角度来看,印度尼西亚是澳大利亚的盾牌,可以抵御来自北方的任何威胁。澳大利亚面临的来自东亚大国的任何威胁都需要经过印度尼西亚。随着印尼作为亚洲大国的崛起,保护澳大利亚免受北方威胁,特别是中国威胁的盾牌(印尼)将更加强大,从而可以更好地保护澳大利亚免受来自北方的任何威胁。但这并不意味着印尼的崛起对澳大利亚来说只是一件喜事。
到目前为止,印尼是澳大利亚拥有的最强大的邻国,而且这种情况在未来还会继续存在。一个强大的印度尼西亚将意味着澳大利亚面临的威胁现在就在他们的家门口,而不是像日本和中国那样在几千英里之外。对澳大利亚来说,更糟糕的是,在印度尼西亚和澳大利亚之间没有任何东西可以保护澳大利亚,而不像澳大利亚和中国或日本之间。
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Worse of all for Australia, around 60% of Australia’s trade flows through Indonesia. In the event of war, Indonesia would be able to disrupt Australia’s trade through the various straits and chokepoints that are within Indonesian territory like the Malacca strait, the Sunda Strait, the Lombok Strait, and the Makassar strait and thus inflict damage to the Australian economy.
In conclusion, the rise of Indonesia as a powerful force would be a double-edged sword for Australia. If Australia plays its cards right, Indonesia would be the most powerful shield Australia has, or if Australia took a misstep the shield would turn into a sword right in front of Australia’s doorstep
印度尼西亚在人口和经济方面的巨大规模意味着,印度尼西亚将有足够的资金、工业和人力来对其任何一个邻国发动一场巨大的战争。换句话说,如果两国之间爆发战争,印度尼西亚将能够超过澳大利亚的生产、兵力和支出。
对澳大利亚来说,更糟糕的是,澳大利亚大约60%的贸易都是通过印度尼西亚进行的。一旦发生战争,印尼将能够通过印尼境内的各种海峡和阻塞点,如马六甲海峡、巽他海峡、龙目海峡和望加锡海峡,扰乱澳大利亚的贸易,从而对澳大利亚的经济造成损害。
总之,印度尼西亚作为一支强大力量的崛起,对澳大利亚来说是一把双刃剑。如果澳大利亚正确出牌,印尼将成为澳大利亚最强大的盾牌,或者如果澳大利亚走错了一步,盾牌就会变成一把剑,就悬在澳大利亚的门前。
I've been thinking the same thing for a while now. Indonesia is Australia's first line of defence while also having the potential to be a nightmare situation for defence planners. In 1942 the Japanese steamrolled through the region and started bombing northern Australia, Indonesians generally didn't fight them because why would they? It wasn't their war and the Japanese made promises of independence, that those promises later turned out to be lies was is a different story. But an independent Indonesia would stand and fight hard against any invader, the cost in blood and treasure would likely be more than they can pay. No outside power can truly threaten Australia so long as Indonesia stands.
But as you said having Indonesia for an enemy would be extremely dangerous for Australia, we'd probably need a nuclear weapons program as a final deterrent as we just don't have the numbers to match.
Though I think a war between our nations would be really stupid, we have far more to gain from each other through friendship than conflict. I just hope most people see things the same way.
一段时间以来,我一直在想同样的事情。印度尼西亚是澳大利亚的第一道防线,同时也有可能成为国防规划人员的噩梦。1942年,日本人在该地区横冲直撞,开始轰炸澳大利亚北部,印度尼西亚人普遍不想与他们(日本人)作战,因为他们为什么要这样做?这不是他们的战争,而且日本人做出了独立的承诺,虽然这些承诺后来被证明是谎言,这是另个不同的故事。但是,一个独立的印度尼西亚会站起来与任何入侵者进行激烈的斗争,流血和财富的代价很可能超过他们(入侵者)能够承受的范围。只要印尼还在,就没有外来势力能够真正威胁到澳大利亚。
但正如你所说的,以印尼为敌对澳大利亚来说是非常危险的,我们可能需要一个核武器计划作为最后的威慑,因为我们没有足够的人数来匹配。
虽然我认为我们国家之间的战争将是非常愚蠢的,我们通过友谊比冲突从对方那里获得的东西要多得多。我希望大多数人都能以同样的方式看待问题。
The weird thing about Australia is how uncomfortable they are with the rise of Indonesia, despite the current regime being somewhat western-friendly. The last decent gesture I can remember from the Canberra is their recognition for Indonesia's “territorial integrity" as a response towards Oceania nations questioning about West Papua. It is pathetically significant for a western nation to do just that, but it is pretty meh and widely expected in Asia. So Australia really needs to clearly position themselves as the dog of the west or really trying to find their own place in Asia, or become the boss of Oceania.
澳大利亚的怪异之处在于他们对印尼的崛起感到非常不舒服,尽管目前(印尼)的政权对西方国家比较友好。我记得堪培拉最后一个体面的姿态是他们承认印尼的"领土完整",作为对大洋洲国家质疑西巴布亚的回应。对于一个西方国家来说,这样做是很有意义的,但对于对其具有广泛期待的亚洲来说还不够。因此,澳大利亚真的需要明确自己的定位,到底是西方的狗,还是真正试图在亚洲找到自己的位置,或者成为大洋洲的老大。
Australia is a Western country, no ‘positioning’ required. That is its place in Asia - or rather, to its south.
澳大利亚是一个西方国家,不需要"定位"。这是它在亚洲的定位--或者说,是它的南部的定位。
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Australia may not be a total puppet like Taiwan or Japan but it's strongly under Murican influence. If something is needed for Uncle Sam, Australia will do it even to the detriment of their own national interests.
澳大利亚可能不像台湾(地区)或日本那样是一个完全的傀儡,但它受到美国的强烈影响。如果山姆大叔需要什么,澳大利亚就会去做,甚至不惜损害他们自己的国家利益。
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I’ve worked in Indonesia. They are lovely people and Australia is very lucky to have such people close to us. If we can get Australian politicians who have been there and worked and lived alongside them elected, then Australia would be far better off.
亚当-克罗
我曾在印度尼西亚工作过。他们是可爱的人,澳大利亚非常幸运,有这样的人与我们接近。如果我们能让那些去过那里并与他们一起工作和生活过的澳大利亚政治家当选,那么澳大利亚会好得多。
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Over thirty years ago, when I was a student, an Australian military strategist told me that despite public pronouncements about the Soviet unx being the main threat, followed by China (the Cold War was still on), they privately considered Indonesia to be the REAL threat, long-term. It was already obvious to them a generation ago, and much more so now.
30多年前,当我还是个学生时,一位澳大利亚军事战略家告诉我,尽管公开宣称苏联是主要威胁,其次是中国(当时冷战仍在进行),但他们私下认为印度尼西亚才是真正的长期威胁。这在一代人之前就已经很明显了,现在更是如此。
How and why is Indonesia any threat to Australia? At what point has Indonesia had either the capacity or desire to invade Australia in the past 30+ years. Comments like this give the CCP what they want, and that is a wedge between Australia and Indonesia.
印度尼西亚是如何以及为什么对澳大利亚构成威胁的?在过去的30多年里,印尼有什么能力或愿望来入侵澳大利亚。像这样的评论给了中国他们想要的东西,那就是在澳大利亚和印度尼西亚之间制造一个楔子。
As a former Australian infantry soldier I have helped train some of the Indonesian armies soldiers and we have both worked together. As a soldier we certainly have a mutual respect for each other and it is in the interest of both countries to be allies and support each other where and whenever we can. I certainly think that we can achieve a lot as allies helping each other secure the safety of the indo- pacific region along with those other nations that have a vested interest in it. I think that our countries will only become closer both politically and militarily as time goes on. It’s a beneficial friendship for both nations and we do need each other no matter what anyone says
作为一名前澳大利亚步兵,我曾帮助训练一些印度尼西亚军队的士兵,我们都曾一起工作。作为一名士兵,我们当然相互尊重,而且成为盟友并随时随地相互支持符合两国的利益。我当然认为,作为盟友,我们可以取得很大的成就,互相帮助,确保印度洋地区的安全,以及那些在该地区有既得利益的其他国家。我认为,随着时间的推移,我们两国在政治上和军事上只会变得更加紧密。这是一种对两国都有益的友谊,不管别人怎么说,我们确实需要对方。
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Just because a strategist said it didn’t make it true. Perhaps he was influenced by the-then recent memory of Konfrontasi or the turmoil of 1965–66. Strategists assess potential threats from every direction. But Indonesia could never be the ‘real’ threat compared to the Soviet unx or Maoist China, which both had Marxism-Leninism as their official ideology and were avowed enemies of the West. How can you make out that Indonesia was the real threat then and is “much more so now”? I would say that Indonesia was no real threat then and is even less so now.
仅仅因为一位战略家说了这句话,并不意味着它是真的。也许他是受到了当时最近的"近卫军"记忆或1965-66年动乱的影响。战略家们评估来自各个方向的潜在威胁。但是,与苏联或中国相比,印度尼西亚永远不可能成为"真正的"威胁,这两个国家都以马克思列宁主义作为其官方意识形态,并且是西方公开的敌人。你怎么能说印尼在当时是真正的威胁,而现在 "更加如此"呢?我想说的是,印尼在当时并不是真正的威胁,现在更不是。
Indonesia has long been an expansionist power. They threatened Malaysia. They forced the Dutch out of Irian Jaya. The bulldozed their way into East Timor (and then trashed the place, when forced to leave). That gives me little confidence about their long-term peaceful intentions towards Papua New Guinea, Australia, and other neighbours.
Besides, Islam is always in the background. Yes, Indonesian Islam is mostly of a moderate strain. MOSTLY. An extremist minority was already organizing in the 1980s; Suharto kept the lid on it with a heavy hand, but it has grown in strength since his departure.
印度尼西亚长期以来一直是一个扩张主义国家。他们威胁着马来西亚。他们迫使荷兰人离开伊里安查亚。他们用推土机推入东帝汶(然后在被迫离开时将该地摧毁)。这让我对他们对巴布亚新几内亚、澳大利亚和其他邻国的长期和平意图缺乏信心。
此外,伊斯兰教总是出现在背景中。是的,印度尼西亚的伊斯兰教大部分是温和的。大致如此。少数极端分子在20世纪80年代就已经组织起来了;苏哈托用强硬手段压制住了他们,但在他离开后,他们的力量越来越大。
“They threatened Malaysia” - Old Order (Sukarno)
“They forced the Dutch out of Irian Jaya” - Old Order and completely understandable, the dutch shouldn't be there anyways
“The bulldozed their way into East Timor (and then trashed the place, when forced to leave)” - New Order (Suharto) and The West actually condone it
“Islam is always in the background” - Are you implying that Islam is a problem and inherently violent? If you can’t differentiate between actual religious people and extremists I’m afraid mutual understanding is just a pipe dream.
Ask yourself this: When has contemporary Indonesia (post-Suharto) ever threatened her neighbors?
"他们威胁着马来西亚"--旧秩序(苏加诺)。
"他们迫使荷兰人离开伊里安查亚"--旧秩序,完全可以理解,反正荷兰人不应该在那里。
"他们用推土机推入东帝汶(然后在被迫离开时将该地摧毁)"--新秩序(苏哈托),而西方实际上是在纵容他们。
"伊斯兰教总是出现在背景中"--你是在暗示伊斯兰教是一个问题,而且本质上是暴力的?如果你不能区分真正的宗教人士和极端分子,恐怕相互理解只是一个空想。
问问你自己吧。当代印度尼西亚(苏哈托之后)什么时候威胁过她的邻国?
According to your previous post,Indonesia was the ‘real’ threat 30 years ago and is even more of a threat now. I see no sign of this. I had an uncle who back in the 60s and 70s helped train Indonesian troops. Indonesia was a friendly country at the time and he was trying to make sure that it remained one. I think those and similar efforts were successful. Yes, we bought the F111s because of past tensions but that was a very long time ago. I’d say our common problem now is China, not each other.
根据你之前的帖子,印度尼西亚在30年前是"真正的"威胁,现在更是一个威胁。我没有看到这种迹象。我有一个叔叔,在60年代和70年代帮助训练印尼军队。印度尼西亚在当时是一个友好国家,他试图确保它仍然是一个友好国家。我认为这些和类似的努力是成功的。是的,我们购买F111战斗机是因为过去的紧张关系,但那是很久以前的事了。我想说我们现在的共同问题是中国,而不是彼此。
thats completely wrong. Indonesia foreign policy doesn't include invading or sacking other countries. In fact, Indonesia's goverment adopts Mandala policy which states that every country around Indonesia is mutual and beneficial. While on the other hand, Indonesia also adopts block-free policy where they position themselves as a neutral power between all others. Indonesia has never had any intention to go to other lands. In school, Indonesian children are never taught about hatred towards their neighbouring countries, the fact is the students will be taught how to value ASEAN countries. Indonesian also was never taught to hate Dutch on these days, even though Dutch has already butchered Indonesian's predecessor for 300 years. Even right now Indonesia and Dutch are having a mutual diplomatic relationship.
这是完全错误的。印度尼西亚的外交政策并不包括入侵或洗劫其他国家。事实上,印尼政府采取的是曼达拉政策,即印尼周围的每个国家都是互利的。而另一方面,印尼也采取了无封锁政策,他们将自己定位为所有其他国家之间的一个中立国。印度尼西亚从来没有想过要怎么其他国家。在学校里,印尼的孩子们从来没有被教导过对邻国的仇恨,事实上,学生们将被教导如何重视东盟国家。在这些日子里,印尼人也从来没有被教导要仇恨荷兰人,尽管荷兰人屠杀了印尼的前身300年。即使是现在,印度尼西亚和荷兰也有相互的外交关系。
I hope that powerful indonesia will stop australia from interferring indonesian internal matter such as papua (or previously east timor). It would be much better to collaborate between neighbour instead of worrying the neighbour.
我希望强大的印尼能阻止澳大利亚干涉印尼的内部事务,如巴布亚(或以前的东帝汶)。与其让邻国担心,不如在邻国之间进行合作。
Even though strong Indonesia is beneficial to Australia. Australia keeps supporting Papua independence. To be honest that’s weird.
尽管强大的印尼对澳大利亚有利。澳大利亚却一直支持巴布亚独立。说实话,这很奇怪。
No, Australia does not support separatism in any part of Indonesia. As long as the Australian government continue to acknowledge and respect Indonesian sovereignty over the Autonomous province of West Papua and Papua, the Australian public support for separatism is little to no concern for Indonesia
不,澳大利亚不支持印度尼西亚任何地区的分离主义。只要澳大利亚政府继续承认并尊重印度尼西亚对西巴布亚和巴布亚自治省的主权,澳大利亚公众对分离主义的支持对印度尼西亚来说几乎没有什么影响。
Honestly I don’t think anyone cares about papua.
The Malaysians, Indonesians, Australians and Americans are only interested in that giant copper mine.
Everything else be damned.
老实说,我认为没有人关心巴布亚。
马来西亚人、印度尼西亚人、澳大利亚人和美国人只对那个巨型铜矿感兴趣。
其他的事情都一边去。
ASIAN COUNTRIES have almost no history to invade others.
THE ANGLO ONES do.
INDONESIANS annexed East Timor under the full blessing of USA and Australia.
INDONESIANS should be aware that today Anglo NEO IMPERIALISTS still want to divide and conquer Indonesia by sowing fake news, sectarian conflicts.
亚洲国家几乎没有侵略他人的历史。
而澳大利亚则有。
印尼人在美国和澳大利亚的庇佑下吞并了东帝汶。
印尼人应该意识到,今天英国的近代帝国主义仍然想通过播撒假新闻和宗派冲突来分裂和征服印尼。
To be fair, we invade East Timor due to our own interests. We are not ordered by the USA or Australia they just gave us the permissions and guarantee that they will not interfere.
Asian countries do have a history of invading other countries but these invasions are different from the Western countries' invasion that is fueled by Capitalism and exploitation.
The Anglo-Saxon countries you’ve mentioned which I presumed to be Britain, the US, and Australia do not want Indonesia to break apart. For Britain and the USA Indonesia is a potentially powerful ally and a potential rival to China within Asia-Pacific. For Australia I’ve already explain in my answer
公平地说,我们入侵东帝汶是出于我们自己的利益。我们没有受到美国或澳大利亚的命令,他们只是给了我们许可并保证他们不会干涉。
亚洲国家确实有入侵其他国家的历史,但这些入侵与西方国家的入侵不同,后者是由资本主义和剥削推动的。
你提到的盎格鲁-撒克逊国家,我推测是英国、美国和澳大利亚,它们不希望印尼解体。对英国和美国来说,印尼是一个潜在的强大盟友,也是中国在亚太地区的潜在对手。对澳大利亚的意义,我已经在我的答案中解释过了
Sorry, this is just completely false. Asia has some of the most bloodiest wars and battles of all history. Please don’t suggest that for the past 4000 odd years Asia has been a passive neutral non war like continent. Every continent has a history of warfare, bloody battles, invasion and conquest. Unfortunately there tends to be a focus on European history over Asian or South American or African history.
对不起,这完全是错误的。亚洲有一些历史上最血腥的战争和战斗。请不要认为在过去的4000多年里,亚洲一直是一个消极中立、不喜欢战争的大陆。每个大陆都有战争、血腥战斗、入侵和征服的历史。不幸的是,人们往往只关注欧洲历史,而不是亚洲、南美或非洲历史。
I agree with a lot of what this answer says (trade disruption/distance etc). I differ in that it has to be ASSUMING the government of Indonesia is stable and moderate, and able to internally control internal tensions - its a good thing for all. The other disagreement is that there is almost no such thing as a war between just Australia v Indonesia. Australia does punch above its weight but a hypothetical one on one its hard to argue that Australia would win. That said, it will never be one on one - it will be Indonesia versus AUKUS, which Indonesia would lose. I highly doubt Indonesia would take on AUKUS by its own - so Indonesia would have to buddy up with China/Russia.
我同意这个答案中的很多内容(贸易干扰/距离等)。我的不同之处在于,它必须假设印度尼西亚政府是稳定和温和的,并且能够在内部控制内部紧张局势--这对所有人来说都是一件好事。另一个不同意见是,几乎不会发生只是澳大利亚VS印度尼西亚的战争。澳大利亚的实力确实很强,但假设是一对一的战斗,很难说澳大利亚会赢。也就是说,这永远不会是一对一的战争--这将是印度尼西亚VS AUKUS的战争,印度尼西亚会输。我非常怀疑印尼是否会独自对付AUKUS,所以印尼将不得不与中国/俄罗斯合作。
Australia is not a threat to Indonesia and its clear both countries can and do work well together. So no reason to doubt it wont continue into the future. We are both friendly countries and hopefully have each others back if someone else wants to interfere with either county.
澳大利亚对印尼来说不是一个威胁,而且很明显,这两个国家可以而且确实合作得很好。所以没有理由怀疑这种关系不会持续到未来。我们都是友好国家,如果有人想干涉任何一个国家,都希望能得到对方的支持。
Yes, currently it is within both countries (especially Australia) interest to preserve the excellent relations we have with one another
是的,目前,维护我们之间的良好关系符合两国的利益(特别是澳大利亚)。
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But why would Indonesia be hostile to Australia though?
但为什么印度尼西亚会对澳大利亚有敌意呢?
We’re not hostile with one another, but as I said if Australia took a misstep Indonesia would be a sword right in front of Australia’s doorstep and there’s nothing between Australia and Indonesia unlike between Australia and China
我们之间没有敌意,但正如我所说的,如果澳大利亚走错了一步,印度尼西亚就会成为澳大利亚门前的一把利剑,澳大利亚和印度尼西亚之间没有什么,不像澳大利亚和中国之间。
What kind of Misstep??
什么才叫走错一步?
who knows, we don’t know what the future has in stored for us
谁知道呢,我们不知道未来会发生什么事。
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
espionage to Indonesia's president phones, buying nuclear submarine on no-nuclear zones, supplying Papua's separatist movement (KKB) to get the world currency guarantees, The Gold.
This is like your Aussie neighbor buying all weapons for collection purposes,except the guns are loaded and ready to use.
对印尼总统的电话进行监听,在无核区购买核潜艇,为巴布亚分离主义运动(KKB)提供世界货币担保,即黄金。
这就像你的澳大利亚邻居已经买好了所有的武器说只是用于收集,虽然枪支已经上膛并准备使用。
There would be no way that Indonesia could invade Australia, even if it became a superpower.
Australia besides being a continent, is also an island and islands are notoriously hard to conquer. Heck, even the US couldn’t invade Cuba.
Even if Indonesia successfully invaded northern Australia in a D-Day like fashion, the army would still be thousands of kilometres from the Australian heartland in New South Wales and Queensland. Once, the Indonesian army reached New South Wales, their supply lines would be so thin that they would be easy pickings for the Australians. It would be a logistical nightmare that would put Operation Barborossa to shame!
印度尼西亚不可能入侵澳大利亚,即使它成为一个超级大国。
澳大利亚除了是一个大陆,也是一个岛屿,而岛屿是出了名的难以征服的。嗨,即使是美国也无法入侵古巴。
即使印度尼西亚以类似诺曼底登陆的方式成功入侵澳大利亚北部,其军队离澳大利亚新南威尔士州和昆士兰州的中心地带仍有数千公里之远。一旦印尼军队到达新南威尔士州,他们的补给线将如此稀薄,以至于他们将成为澳大利亚人的猎物。这将是一场让 "巴博罗萨行动"都感到羞愧的后勤方面的噩梦。