Wall Street Bets the Fed Is Bluffing in High-Stakes Inflation Game

华尔街认为美联储在高风险的通胀游戏中是在虚张声势


By Akane Otani
Aug. 18, 2022 9:51 am ET
The Federal Reserve says it is going to keep raising interest rates.

美联储表示会继续加息。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Wall Street thinks it’s bluffing.

华尔街认为FED在虚张声势。

This could spell trouble for both of them.

这可能导致两败俱伤
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处


Markets pummeled by the Fed’s rate increases in the first half of the year are racing upward. The S&P 500 is up 17% from its mid-June low. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, which is used to help set rates on debt such as mortgages and student loans is down more than half a percentage point from its June peak. Even battered cryptocurrencies have jumped.

上半年因为美联储加息下跌的市场正在恢复上涨。标普500从6月中旬低点上涨17%，用于帮助设定住房抵押贷款及学生贷款的美债10年期利率则从6月高点下降超过0.5个百分点。此前暴跌的加密货币也乘此东风开始飙升。

For many investors, the rebound reflects a belief that inflation has peaked, and expectation that the Fed will shift from raising rates to lowering them sometime next year.

对于很多投资者来说，本次美国市场再次上涨说明人们认为通胀已经见顶，并预期从2023年起，美联储会从加息转向降息。

A parade of Fed officials has tried to push back. “There’s a disconnect between me and the markets,” Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said last week.

随后一系列美联储官员试图对此泼冷水。明尼阿波利斯联储银行行长卡什卡利(Neel Kashkari)称，我与市场预计并不相同。

An expectation the Fed will start cutting interest rates in the next six to nine months isn’t realistic, Mr. Kashkari said. It is more likely the Fed will “raise rates to some point, and then we will sit there until we get convinced that inflation is well on its way back down to 2%,” he said.

卡什卡利表示，未来六到九个月认为美联储降息的预期不符合实际，美联储更有可能加息至某一个基点，直到FED看到通胀回落至2%左右才会开启降息。

If the Fed follows that path, markets are likely to face a painful reckoning—one that could unwind much of the recent rally and extend what has been a tumultuous stretch for investors from retail traders to hedge funds to pension funds.

如果美联储真如卡什卡利所言行事，那么市场可能因为押注错误面临重大损失。市场可能因此回吐近期的收益，从散户到对冲基金再到养老基金都可能经历更长时期的动荡。

“We think the market is getting ahead of itself,” said Wei Li, global chief investment strategist at BlackRock Inc.

贝莱德全球首席投资策略分析师李伟成，我们认为市场反应有些超前。
（以下是美国十年期债券收益率表格，过去十几年中每当美联储加息前，10年期美债都会提前见顶，本次加息情况是否会有所不同，投资者们看法不一）

Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist and chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley, is forecasting the S&P 500 will end the year around 3900, down 8.8% from where the broad index closed Wednesday. At Bank of America Corp., Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy, is expecting the S&P 500 to finish 2022 even lower—at 3600, a fall of 16% from Wednesday’s close.

其中摩根士丹利股票策略师兼首席投资官麦克·威尔森就预测，标普500本年度将在3900点收盘，该数值较周三收盘点位下降8.8%。美国银行股票及量化策略负责人赛维塔预测，标普500年底收盘较3900还要低，会跌至3600点附近，这一预期比周三收盘点位低16%。

Skeptics of the rebound say that even if inflation turns out to be peaking, it likely won’t fall fast enough for the Fed to pivot as quickly as the markets expect.

对市场反弹持怀疑论的人表示，即便通胀即将触顶，美联储也不足以能够像市场预期那样迅速调整立场。

A challenge for both sides is that the Fed doesn’t appear to have confidence in its ability to accurately forecast inflation, which makes it difficult to predict when the central bank will stop raising rates.

对投资者和美联储双方而言挑战是，美联储没有信心准确预测通胀，这令投资者也更难预测何时美联储会停止加息步伐。

Economists outside the Fed are divided over how aggressively the central bank should attack inflation. One camp says even if it falls over the next 12 months, it is likely to settle at 4% or higher, a level most Fed officials would consider unacceptably high. That would make it difficult for the central bank to lower rates to the levels that fueled markets in recent years.

美联储之外的经济学家在美联储采取多么激进手段应对通胀领域看法不一。一个阵营认为，即便未来一年通胀回落，数值也将在4%或者更低水平，但是大部分美联储官员会认为这一数值难以接受，仍旧超出美联储预期。这就使得美联储更难以降低近几年推高市场的利率。

Another camp warns that the Fed, embarrassed about waiting too long to pull back its support of a booming economy last year, will compound the error by tightening too much. These economists believe the current surge in inflation is the result of global shocks rather than an overheated U.S. labor market, which would require a much deeper downturn to bring down inflation.

另一派阵营则警告成，美联储拖延太久才收回2021年的经济刺激计划令人尴尬，美联储如果未来过度收紧政策将会错上加错。这部分经济学家认为，目前高企的通胀不是因为美国就业市场过度火热，而是因为全球冲击加剧，而解决后者引发的通胀往往需要更深层次的改革。

For much of this year, the Fed put was in doubt. The central bank raised interest rates in March and signaled it would continue at a brisk pace to attack inflation, which had reached multidecade highs. U.S. stocks suffered their worst first half of a year since 1970. Investment-grade bonds posted their worst first half in history.

今年大部分时间，“美联储看跌期权”都遭到质疑。美联储今年3月上调利率，并暗示将继续快速加息以抗击通胀。美国通胀率已触及数十年来高点。美国股市今年上半年录得1970年以来同期最差表现。投资级债券上半年表现则是历史最差。

“The reality is that right now, the market is enjoying the Fed put, We’re all dealing with a very unpredictable beast.”

现实就是市场还在享受美联储看跌期权红利，现在我们面对的是不可预测的怪兽。