网友讨论：联合国报告预估，2023年印度就将成为世界第一人口大国
India to take over China''s population in 2023; Poised to become World’s Most Populous country
译文简介
该联合国报告于7月11日发布
正文翻译
NEW DELHI, July 11 (Reuters) - India is set to surpass China as the world's most populous country in 2023, with each counting more than 1.4 billion residents this year, a United Nations report said on Monday, warning that high fertility would challenge economic growth.
The world's population, estimated to reach 8 billion by Nov. 15 this year, could grow to 8.5 billion in 2030, and 10.4 billion in 2100, as the pace of mortality slows, said the report released on World Population Day.
India's population was 1.21 billion in 2011, according to the domestic census, which is conducted once a decade. The government had deferred the 2021 census due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
联合国周一发布的一份报告警告称，2023年，印度将超越中国，成为世界上人口最多的国家。今年，印度人口即将突破14亿，高生育率将为该国的经济增长带来挑战。
世界人口日发布的这份报告称，随着死亡率的降低，预计到今年11月15日，世界人口就将达到80亿，到2030年可能突破85亿，2100年则可能达到104亿。
根据印度十年一次的国内人口普查，2011年印度人口为12.1亿。由于新冠疫情的爆发，印度政府推迟了2021年的人口普查。
In 2021, the average fertility of the world’s population stood at 2.3 births per woman over a lifetime, having fallen from about 5 births in 1950. Global fertility is projected to decline further to 2.1 births per woman by 2050.
"This is an occasion to celebrate our diversity, recognize our common humanity, and marvel at advancements in health that have extended lifespans and dramatically reduced maternal and child mortality rates," UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement.
Still, a growing population was a reminder of a shared responsibility of care for the planet and to "reflect on where we still fall short of our commitments to one another," he said.
2021年，世界人口的平均生育率为每名妇女一生生育2.3个孩子。在1950年这一数字为5个。而预计到2050年时，全球生育率将进一步下降到每名妇女生育2.1个孩子。
联合国秘书长安东尼奥·古特雷斯（António Guterres）在一份声明中说：“这是一个庆祝我们的多样性、承认我们的共同人性、惊叹人类健康进步的机会，这些进步延长了寿命，显著降低了孕产妇和儿童的死亡率。”
尽管如此，不断增长的人口也提醒我们要共同承担起保护地球的责任，并“反思我们在哪些方面仍然没有履行对彼此的承诺，”他说。
"This is an occasion to celebrate our diversity, recognize our common humanity, and marvel at advancements in health that have extended lifespans and dramatically reduced maternal and child mortality rates," UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement.
Still, a growing population was a reminder of a shared responsibility of care for the planet and to "reflect on where we still fall short of our commitments to one another," he said.
2021年，世界人口的平均生育率为每名妇女一生生育2.3个孩子。在1950年这一数字为5个。而预计到2050年时，全球生育率将进一步下降到每名妇女生育2.1个孩子。
联合国秘书长安东尼奥·古特雷斯（António Guterres）在一份声明中说：“这是一个庆祝我们的多样性、承认我们的共同人性、惊叹人类健康进步的机会，这些进步延长了寿命，显著降低了孕产妇和儿童的死亡率。”
尽管如此，不断增长的人口也提醒我们要共同承担起保护地球的责任，并“反思我们在哪些方面仍然没有履行对彼此的承诺，”他说。
Referring to an earlier World Health Organisation report- estimating about 14.9 million deaths relating to the COVID-19 pandemic between January 2020 and December 2021, the UN report said global life expectancy at birth fell to 71 years in 2021 from 72.8 years in 2019, mostly due to the pandemic.
The United Nations said more than half of the projected increase in the global population up to 2050 will be concentrated in eight countries - Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United Republic of Tanzania.
However, the population of 61 countries is projected to decrease by 1% or more between 2022 and 2050, driven by a fall in fertility.
根据世界卫生组织早些时候的一份报告——2020年1月至2021年12月期间，与新冠大流行相关的死亡人数约为1490万。联合国报告称，主要由于新冠大流行造成的影响，全球人口出生时预期寿命从2019年的72.8岁，下降到了2021年的71岁。
联合国报告还指出，到2050年，预计全球人口增长的一半以上将集中在八个国家——刚果、埃及、埃塞俄比亚、印度、尼日利亚、巴基斯坦、菲律宾和坦桑尼亚。
然而，由于生育率下降，预计2022年到2050年间，全球有61个国家将出现至少1%的人口减少。
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The United Nations said more than half of the projected increase in the global population up to 2050 will be concentrated in eight countries - Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United Republic of Tanzania.
However, the population of 61 countries is projected to decrease by 1% or more between 2022 and 2050, driven by a fall in fertility.
根据世界卫生组织早些时候的一份报告——2020年1月至2021年12月期间，与新冠大流行相关的死亡人数约为1490万。联合国报告称，主要由于新冠大流行造成的影响，全球人口出生时预期寿命从2019年的72.8岁，下降到了2021年的71岁。
联合国报告还指出，到2050年，预计全球人口增长的一半以上将集中在八个国家——刚果、埃及、埃塞俄比亚、印度、尼日利亚、巴基斯坦、菲律宾和坦桑尼亚。
然而，由于生育率下降，预计2022年到2050年间，全球有61个国家将出现至少1%的人口减少。
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This is dangerous. Bharat must bring the population control Bill and strictly implement it without any bias.
这很危险。印度必须制定人口控制法案并严格执行，不得有任何偏见。
No polygamy and no breeding like rodents.
禁止一夫多妻制，禁止像啮齿动物那样繁殖！
@BLUERAY1611 they should launch citizens on moon
@BLUERAY1611，他们应该把公民送到月球上去
But also if the population is high we don't need a high per capita, even with a $4000-5000 per capita india will be a 8 trillion dollars nominal GDP by 2030. And GDP PPP we will be 30 to 40 trillion dollars by 2030. So our Govt will be rich and our defence budget will be well over $100B, and economic stability will grow. Only thing Govt has to do is to create employment.
但是，如果人口足够多，我们只需要不太高的人均GDP，比如到2030年即使人均GDP只有4000-5000美元，印度的名义GDP也将达到8万亿美元，而我们的购买力平价GDP将达到30至40万亿美元。这样，我们的政府将会很有钱，我们的国防预算将远远超过1000亿美元，经济稳定性也将大大加强。到时政府唯一要做的就是创造就业机会。
@Immanuel Matthew You know there is something called scarcity . From where you get the resources for such a large population. China is 3 times the size of india they have way more resources then us .
@Immanuel Matthew ，有一种叫“资源稀缺”的东西你知道吧。你要从哪里弄到供养这么多人口的资源？中国的国土面积是印度的3倍，他们的资源比我们多太多。
@Jatin Kumar our FX reserves are big and we do a lot of exports and then we can maintain a good economic stability.
@Jatin Kumar，我们有很多外汇储备，我们的出口也很多，这样我们就能保持良好的经济稳定性了。
@Immanuel Matthew lol you must have a phd in economics
@Immanuel Matthew ，哈哈，你必须是个经济学博士
@David Das no bro I'm actually a college dropout, but I'm a stock trader. I know a lot about macroeconomics. I'm self taught.
@David Das，不，兄弟，实际上我大学辍学了。但我是个股票交易员，了解了很多宏观经济学的知识。我属于自学成才。
@Immanuel Matthew China has more natural resources than india, dude china is 3 times size of india and it is currently fourth largest producer of oil and chin is one of the largest producer of rare earth minerals. Now compare with india we don't have these natural resources, we import most of them and our size is also very small, if government cannot able to provide resources and jobs to people then huge riots will occurs in india because of scarcity of resources.
@Immanuel Matthew ，中国的自然资源远比印度丰富，中国的面积是印度的3倍，中国是世界第四大产油国，中国还是最大的稀土生产国之一。现在再来看看印度，我们可没有这些自然资源，我们大部分都要靠进口，我们的国土面积也很小。如果政府不能为这么多人口提供足够的资源和就业机会，那么因为资源匮乏，印度必将爆发巨大的骚乱。
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@Immanuel Matthew your government will not be rich. The living standards will be even more shit then they are now and India will be even further behind. The government will have more people to take care of and more expenses. So no, a larger population is not good. This is nothing to be proud of
the point of a government isn’t to be the biggest and largest for those people like you with ego problems and an inferiority complex. It is there to provide the best quality of life for its people. Your government would not do that. India would be overpopulated, and even more polluted than it is today. The living standards will drop far more than they are now.
@Immanuel Matthew ，你们的政府才不会变得“很有钱”。到时候印度人的生活水平只会比现在更糟糕，印度将更加落后。印度政府将有更多人口要照顾，也就意味着更大的政府开支。所以，不，人口多并不是件好事。这没什么值得骄傲的。
我想告诉你这种既自大又自卑的人，政府存在的意义并不在于“越大越好”，而在于为人民提供尽可能好的生活质量。你们的政府却不会这样做。印度即将人口过剩，它的污染甚至会比今天更严重，生活水平将下降到远比现在更糟糕的水平。
34-DIBYA CHOWDHURY
I think it's a very serious issue we are having here. Being the most populated countries has more disadvantages than advantages. The increase in population is mostly due to the illeterate section of India. Gov. should immediately take some steps to control this rodent like breeding.
我觉得这会是我们正在面对的一个非常严峻的问题。成为人口最多的国家弊大于利。印度人口的增长主要来自于文盲群体。印度政府应该立即采取一些措施来控制这个国家如同啮齿类动物一样的繁殖速度了。
Yes Gov should take immediate action about child birth Control
是的，政府应该立即采取行动控制生育
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everything is serious, highest pollution, illiteracy, poverty and now population
就没有不严峻的问题，最严重的污染、文盲问题、贫困问题，现在人口问题又来了
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Islamophobe!
伊斯兰恐惧症是吧！
@See my About Section "Illiterate section" doesn't mean only muslims. There are illiterate Hindus and of other religions..
@See my About Section，“文盲群体”又不是只有穆斯林。印度教徒里也有文盲，其它宗教也一样……
it's due to Islam marrying 4-5 woman and getting 5-6 children from each!
（但人口问题）是因为伊斯兰教徒娶4~5个女人，每个女人生5~6个孩子！
@NERF ROYALE give the data and show me what percent Muslim men in India have more than 1 wife
@NERF ROYALE，请你提供数据，告诉我到底有百分之几的印度穆斯林男性娶了超过一个妻子的
KevinDean4599
The continent of Africa is where they predict the biggest population gains will happen. kind of scary considering how most people in Africa live now. they predict some cities we've never heard of will swell to 80 million people.
根据他们（联合国）的预测，非洲大陆才是人口增长最多的地区。考虑到大多数非洲人现在的生活状况，这真可怕。他们还预测说，未来可能出现一些人口规模达到8千万的超级城市，而我们现在还从未听说过它们的名字。
Also kind of scary some areas of India that people live now. And South America too!
在印度的一些地区，人们现在生活状况也挺可怕。还有南美洲也是！
No, they won’t, because there won’t be enough food to feed them, and other continents are not going to voluntarily starve so that Africans don’t have to use birth control.
At some point, resource availability makes decisions for you.
不，这不会发生，因为根本没有足够的食物来养活他们。其他大陆也不会主动让自己挨饿，好让非洲人继续不加节制地生育。
在某种程度上，资源的可用性早已决定了你的未来。
They won't, they will just do what they do now, get on a boat and head to Europe.
他们不会（节制生育），他们只会做他们现在做的事，坐船偷渡到欧洲。
People are gonna fight before they starve. That type of environment breeds conquers
人们会在饿死前发动战争。这种环境通常会孕育出征服者。
I mean I didn't know Wuhan was a major for the first month of talking about COVID. I didn't know it was a city of 9 million.
Africa is developing and many Africans will emigrate to other countries.
我想说，新冠疫情爆发的头一个月，我都还不知道武汉这座大城市，也不知道它竟有900万人口。
非洲正在发展，将来还有很多非洲人会移民到其他国家。
I think climate change will throw most estimates out of the window, because it is so unpredictable. Even short term with the grain shortage we could see a lot of civil wars on the african continent.
我认为，气候变化会把大多数此类“预测”变成废纸，因为这类事情本身就有极大的不可预测性。就算只是发生短时间的粮食危机，我们就可能看到非洲大陆上爆发许多场内战。
If history is any guide, mass death and war are frequently outweighed by insanely high fertility rates.
The Congo gained people at a rapid rate during its civil war. Iraq and Afghanistan gained people during the past 20 years (at rates far higher than any Western country).
Outside of systematic genocide like the holocaust and Rwanda, it is almost impossible for war, slaughter or even moderate famines to bring down the population of a place with 4+ kids per woman.
如果历史有什么指导意义的话，那就是疯狂的生育率往往能胜过大规模死亡和战争。
刚果内战期间人口仍迅速增加。过去20年里，伊拉克和阿富汗的人口也增长了不少（其增长率远远高于任何西方国家）。
除了大屠杀和像卢旺达那样的系统性种族灭绝之外，战争、杀戮甚至一定程度的饥荒几乎不可能使一个每个妇女能生4个以上孩子的地方的人口减少。
k l
South Asia ( i.e. undivided India ) is already the most populous region in the world just imagine if we were never divided, that's some huge challenge for a country to sustain.
南亚（也就是没有分裂的印度）本就已经是世界上人口最多的地区了——试想一下，如果我们从未分裂，这么多人口对一个国家来说是一个多么巨大的挑战。
Terrible idea. We can't handle peacefuls already here.
可怕的想法。我们对如今这种和平的环境都已经处理不好了。
Hahaha that's true, we will become the most unstable country in the world for sure. Most probably we have to see Hindu - Muslim conflicts more often than today.
哈哈哈，没错，（如果不分裂）我们肯定会成为世界上最不稳定的国家。我们很可能会见识到比今天更频繁的印度教徒和穆斯林之间的冲突。
@soren utpal but imagine
If south Asia was ruled by a single party like china
In that way we can handle peacefuls
@soren utpal，但是想一想啊，
如果（统一的）南亚有中国这样的一党统治
这样我们就能和平相处了
@AB PS still a terrible idea. China only has 11million muslims.
@AB PS，仍然是糟糕的想法。中国可只有1千1百万穆斯林。
@AB PS if u like Chinese policies more than Indian constitution
So pls leave india and go to China and stay
@AB PS，如果你喜欢中国胜过喜欢印度宪法，
那就请离开印度，到中国去别回来了。
Sorry, but South Asia ≠ undivided India.
抱歉，南亚可不等于“没有分裂的印度”
uhhhwhatok
India mostly young population might actually be a bad thing for their country. They already have a high youth unemployment and has one of the lowest female labour participation rates in the world. This means a huge chunk of that demographic dividend is not being utilized.
The longer this goes on, the less wealth and productivity these people can achieve, and then becoming a massive drain on the state in a few decades.
印度大量的年轻人口对他们的国家来说实际上可能不是件好事。印度的青年失业率已经很高了，同时它又是世界上女性劳动参与率最低的国家之一。也就是说它所谓的“人口红利”的很大一部分并没有被利用起来。
这种情况持续得越久，这些人所能提供的生产力、能获得的财富就越低；而几十年后他们就会变成国家的巨大负担。
Buddy lol you are speaking as though 600 Million people were gain fully employed. Most of the big countries like USA had low female employment rates until like 80s. Heck Japan has a low female employment rate even today
哈哈，伙计，你说的好像印度另外6亿人（男人）都已经充分就业了似的。直到80年代，像美国这样的大国的女性就业率都还很低。靠，就算是现在，日本的女性就业率也很低。
Dude, India's female labour force participation rate is like 20%. The US has never had a value that low in its records.
伙计，印度的女性劳动参与率大约是20%。美国历史上还从未有过如此低的女性劳动参与率呢。
I just pointed out we don’t have jobs for the 50% of the population who are men. Like what jobs will we give women ? Uh ??
我前面不就说了，我们都没法给50%的男性人口提供足够的工作，你要我们给印度女性什么样的工作？哈？？
Jobs absolutely don’t work like that. Woman entering the workforce gives them income which leads to demand and thus jobs? Otherwise unemployment would be insane in Western countries.
It’s social factors really preventing women in India from entering the workforce than anything else.
“工作”绝对不是这样算的。女性进入劳动力市场后，她们会有收入，从而产生需求，进而创造更多就业机会。要不然，西方国家的失业率将会很疯狂。
阻止印度女性进入劳动力市场的，是社会因素。
Ultima Thule
I don't think there is anything to be poised about this. Ridiculously large population is contributing to the climate change and the endless decline in air quality in India.
我不认为印度就这一局面做好了任何准备。多到夸张的人口正是导致气候问题和印度空气质量无止尽恶化的重要原因。
The reverse would also occur. Air quality in North India may decrease the lifespan of Indian population.
还会反过来产生影响：印度北部糟糕的空气质量恐怕又会让印度人的寿命变短。
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Population control must be implemented. China is about 3 time larger than India with 6 times larger gdp.
必须实施人口控制！要知道中国的GDP是印度的6倍，国土面积则是印度的大约3倍。
Didn't Elon Musk say that human population is really less for our future survival
埃隆·马斯克不是说过，对于我们人类未来的生存而言现在的人口还远远不够吗。
@gotcha He is talking about expanding beyond the planet. The work force required to do that is huge. That has nothing to do with what I have said. If your resources are stagnated or stunted, because of your heafty unskilled population it is counter productive.
@gotcha，他那是在说人类未来要向地外扩张的话，那将需要巨大的劳动力规模。这与我们现在讨论的无关。如果你的资源本就短缺或得不到充分开发，那么大量的非技术人口只会适得其反。
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Sujatha Viswanathan
Wow! What a proud moment for India! Indians should celebrate this momentous event in history! I’m so proud of myself and my fellow country people that we have achieved this prestigious honour! What an achievement ! Bring on the party, guys!
哇！对印度来说，这是一个多么令人自豪的时刻！印度人一定要好好庆祝这一重大历史事件！我为自己和我的同胞们感到骄傲，我们获得了这一崇高的荣誉！这是多大的成就啊！派对开起来，伙计们！
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What honour? Just means more pollution and poverty. Nothing honourable about that. Make more money so you can sustain and support that population. No point in having more people just to live in poverty.
这算什么荣誉？这只是意味着更大的污染和更严重的贫困。这跟荣誉没有一点关系。搞好经济多赚钱，这样你们才能养活这么多人口。越来越多的人口却只能生活在贫困之中，那有什么意义。
@Damien Yuen My comments were dripping with sarcasm. As an Indian, it’s horrific that we have to get this reputation. I’m ashamed of myself that my country will become the most populated one in the world.
@Damien Yuen，我的评论完全是在反讽。作为一名印度人，我只觉得我们注定要得到的这一头衔实在太可怕了。我为自己的国家将成为世界人口最多的国家感到羞耻。
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this is what happens when you decide to make children instead of making money.
这就是你们一心一意生孩子而不是一心一意搞钱的后果。
What a shame for us, china with first largest population is rising to be the largest economy in world and we are stuck here at 5th, we literally have ruined Bharat, sorry to say this..
这真让人羞耻。中国在拥有世界最多人口的时候也在不断崛起为世界最大经济体，而我们现在则卡在第五的位置。很抱歉这么说，但我们真的已经毁了印度……
CHINA has Built Infrastructures to better the Lives of its citizens if India can follow suit it'll help.
中国已经为改善他们人民的生活水平建造了大量基础设施。如果印度能效仿这一做法，中国也会提供帮助。
We can only beat them in population and corruption
我们也只能在人口和腐败方面超越他们了。
We should be ashamed , we never have taken any measures to curb population.China realised and did it in 1979.We still treat single child parents as odd human beings in our society.atleast when it was 84 crores in 1991 we should have brought in One child policy and recognise all those single child parents irrespective of any reason
我们应该感到羞耻，我们从来没有采取过任何措施以控制人口。中国在1979年就意识到了这一点，并采取了措施。而在我们的社会中，我们仍然把独生子女的父母视为古怪的人。至少在1991年印度人口达到8.4亿时，我们就应该引入独生子女政策，并抛弃对所有独生子女父母的偏见，无论他们是出于何种原因。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
During the Bengal famine, Churchill stated that any potential relief efforts sent to India would accomplish little to nothing, as Indians "breeding like rabbits"
And a global famine coming next year too.
在（1943年）孟加拉大饥荒期间，丘吉尔曾说，由于印度人“像兔子一样繁殖”，任何对印度展开的救援尝试都将收效甚微。
而明年，一场全球性饥荒又要爆发了。
Nobody can't deny their grandparents contribution from this remarkable achievement. They never took rest before at least 5 work done or out puts.
没有印度人能否定他们的祖父母辈对这一非凡成就所做的贡献。在至少完成5个工作任务或者说“产出”前，他们从来都不休息的。
Another achievement of Modi. While the south is like a lion in reproduction, the north particularly the hindi heartland reproduces like piglets. Obviously this is what the sanghis want as their vote bank becomes more stronger in the uneducated i.e populous states.
这是莫迪的又一项“成就”。如果说印度南方人像狮子那样生孩子，那么印度北方尤其是印地语中心地带就是在像小猪一样繁殖。显然，这是那些国民志愿服务团的支持者们想要的，因为他们在这些教育水平低下而人口稠密的邦的票仓正变得越来越庞大。
Our population would have already crossed that of China, who could count our ever exploding population...and also world population growing is very worrisome as the most destructive animal species exploding is the worst news for other living creatures...fortunately, nature will take care of it much sooner, though much violently, to balance the living planet...!!
我们的人口可能已经超过中国了，谁又能准确统计出我们不断膨胀的人口数量呢……同时，世界人口的增长也非常令人担心，因为最具破坏性的物种大爆炸对其他生物而言就是最坏的消息……幸运的是，为了让这颗充满生命的行星恢复平衡，大自然会很快做出回应的，尽管可能会很凶狠。
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.cn 转载请注明出处
Hey! We should all congratulate ourselves on a job well done. At least, the land of the Kama Sutra is doing one job well, making more and more babies! As an Indian, I’ve never been prouder of my country. Congratulations, India!
Is this a Western conspiracy to defame India yet again now that they are pissed that we are buying Russian oil? No, no, this is a well planned hybrid warfare strategy to attack India and spoil her reputation by all our enemies. But fear not, India will rise and rise to be the most populated country in the world for the next few decades, oops, lone superpower, soon enough.
嘿！我们都应该祝贺自己一番，做的好！至少，这片诞生《卡玛经/印度圣经》的土地在一件事情上干得很棒，那就是生育越来越多的孩子！作为一个印度人，我从未对我的国家感到如此骄傲过。祝贺你，印度！
这次又是西方用来诽谤印度的阴谋吗？就因为他们对我们购买俄罗斯石油感到愤怒？不，不，这次是由我们所有敌人精心策划的一个综合战争策略，目的是攻击印度，破坏我们的声誉。但不必担心，未来几十年里，印度将不断崛起，成为世界第一人口大国以及，哎呀，唯一的超级大国。很快。
The future looks so bleak.
One small segment of the society is living the life king size and the majority are struggling to make the ends meet and rest of them are fighting to put bread on the table or even worse.
And all the governments wants us to be divided and the fights and debates are about Hindu - Muslim, communalism, regionalism.
When would india get things like social security, healthy pay for every individual to maintain a standard of living, good state run establishments etc
印度的未来真是暗淡无光。
我们社会里的一小撮人过着国王般的生活，大多数人只是在努力维持收支平衡，其余一些则在挣扎着糊口，甚至更糟。
所有的（邦？）政府都希望把我们搞得四分五裂，围绕着印度教-穆斯林、地方自治、地区保护主义的争斗和辩论永无休止。
要到什么时候，印度才能实现像社会保障、每个人都能维持一定生活水平的得体收入、运行良好的国营事业等等这些东西？
surpassing China in terms of population is meaningless, since we are going to compare two meaninglessly huge numbers anyway. We won't be having any sort of "lead" in realistic numbers. Hell, we may have surpassed China a decade ago if we consider that our population survey is as inefficient as the rest of our bureaucracy.
在人口方面超过中国是没有意义的，既然我们无论如何都要比较这两个巨大而毫无意义的数字的话——在各种更实际的数据上，我们不会有任何形式的“领先”。见鬼，如果考虑到跟其他官僚机构同样低效无能的印度人口普查，我们可能早在十年前就已经超过中国的总人口了。