Farmers say fuel, fertilizer costs are pushing them to brink.

农民们说，燃料和化肥成本正在将他们推向悬崖边缘。

The current state of American family farming mirrors that of our energy industry: a system of highly efficient production and abundance that has now been driven to crisis and shortage by misguided government policies.

美国家庭农业的现状反映了我们能源行业的现状：一个高效的生产和丰富的系统，现在被误导的政府政策推向了危机和短缺的困境。

Farmers are masters at adaptation and managing weather and price fluctuations. But the extreme cost inflation of diesel fuel and fertilizer is taking a severe toll, they say, and will not only continue to drive prices up in grocery stores but could have lasting repercussions in the years to come.

农民是适应和应付天气和价格波动的高手。但他们宣称，柴油和化肥的极端成本膨胀正在造成严重损失，不仅会继续推动杂货店的价格上涨，而且可能在未来几年产生持久影响。

Randy Linton is a fourth-generation farmer and rancher in Oklahoma. “My grandpa owned it, then my dad took over when my grandpa retired, and I helped my dad out wherever I could,” she said.

兰迪·林顿是俄克拉荷马州的第四代农民和牧场主。她说：“我的祖父拥有它，我的祖父退休后，我的父亲接管了它，我曾经尽可能地帮助我父亲。”
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She runs the farm now, and much of her business today is providing grazing fields for other farmers’ cattle. “A stocker will send us cattle from Mississippi, and we take care of them,” Linton explained. “We get paid per pound of gain,” or by the amount 0f weight the cattle put on while grazing in her fields.

她现在经营着农场，她如今的大部分业务是为其他农民的牛群提供放牧地。“一个放牧者会从密西西比州给我们送来牛，我们负责照顾它们”，林顿解释说，“我们按每磅收益获得报酬”，也就是说按牛在她的田里吃草时增加的重量获得报酬。

The fertilizer she uses to grow feed crops used to cost $18 per acre two years ago. “This past year it was $35 per acre, and in this farming season that we’re in right now, it’s going to cost us $75 an acre.” She hopes stocking fees will go up enough to cover her costs, but cattle owners may not be able to afford that, opting to pass her by and corn-feed their cows instead of grazing them.

她用来种植饲料作物的肥料在两年前每英亩要花费18美元。“去年是每英亩35美元，而在我们现在所处的这个农忙季节，每英亩将花费75美元”。 她希望放养费能上涨到足以支付她的成本，但牛主人可能负担不起，选择放弃与她的合作，用玉米喂养他们的牛，而不是放牧牛群。
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“If that happens, then we won’t make any money next year and we will be losing money, putting in this high dollar crop this year,” Linton said. “One bad year like that could bankrupt us and everybody. The small farmer is one bad year from being gone.”

“如果发生这种情况，那么我们明年就赚不到钱了，我们就会亏损，特别是今年投入了这么高价的作物”，林顿说道，“这样的一个坏年头可能会使我们所有人破产。小农户在一个糟糕的年份就会消失”。

Lorenda Overman raises hogs and grows corn, soybeans, and sweet potatoes on her North Carolina farm. Diesel- and fertilizer-price hikes have driven her total costs up from $700 per acre to more than $900 per acre. She’ll earn $825 per acre selling this crop, putting her in the red for all the money she has invested this year.

洛伦达·奥弗曼在她的北卡罗来纳州农场饲养生猪，种植玉米、大豆和红薯。柴油和化肥价格的上涨使她的总成本从每英亩700美元上升到每英亩900美元以上。她每英亩卖出这种作物将获得825美元，这让她今年投入的所有资金都陷入了亏损。
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“You bury all your liquid assets in the ground to plant a crop and then you pray over it and you hope that it comes back out of the ground to you,” said Overman. “But when that hole is so deep, like $900 an acre, and I’ve got a thousand acres to farm, that’s just a huge hole to climb out of.

“你把你所有的流动资产投入到地里种庄稼，然后你为它祈祷，你希望它从地里回来找你”，奥弗曼说道，“但是当这个坑太深了，比如一亩地要花900美元，而我有一千亩地要耕种，那就是一个巨坑了”。
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“I’ve seen years when it wouldn’t rain, and I’ve seen years when prices were really low,” she said. “I’ve seen years when we couldn’t pay the operating loan and we had to roll it over to next year. But I’ve never seen the price of an acre of corn being $900 an acre, and I’ve been doing this for 40 years.”

她说：“我见过不下雨的年份，我也见过价格非常低的年份。我见过我们无法支付运营贷款的年份，我们不得不把它转到明年支付。但是我从来没有见过一英亩玉米的成本是900美元一英亩，而我在这一行当已经干了40年了”。

“Lenders are nervous,” Overman said. “Banks are very nervous about operating loans to get crops in the ground.” Under current conditions, she thinks many family farmers could go under.

“贷款人很紧张”，奥弗曼说，“银行对运作贷款来种植农作物感到非常紧张”。在目前的条件下，她认为许多家庭农场主可能会倒闭。
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“Once the farm is gone, it’s gone,” she said. The years it takes to make farmland productive and the enormous investment required, with combines alone now costing $500,000 or more, will prevent those who lose their farms from ever coming back.

她说：“一旦农场消失，它就回不来了。使农田具有生产力所需的年限和所需的巨大投资——现在仅联合收割机就需要50万美元或更多——将使那些失去农场的人永远无法再回来”。

The crisis farmers face today stems primarily from the crisis in fossil-fuel production. The Biden administration’s antipathy toward fossil fuels and the consequent flatlining of U.S. oil production has been exacerbated by shortages abroad.

农民今天面临的危机主要源于化石燃料生产的危机。拜登政府对化石燃料的反感，以及随之而来的美国石油生产的低迷，已经被国外的短缺所加剧了。

Russia is the world’s third-largest oil producer, after the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, and is the largest exporter of fertilizer, an oil derivative. Although America does produce domestic fertilizer, it is the world’s third-largest importer, leaving U.S. farmers subject to global price hikes at a time of severe worldwide fertilizer shortages.

俄罗斯是全球第三大石油生产国，仅次于美国和沙特阿拉伯，也是石油衍生品——化肥——的最大出口国。虽然美国国内也生产化肥，但它却是世界第三大进口国，在全世界化肥严重短缺的时候，美国农民受到全球价格上涨的影响。

Western sanctions, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, eliminated a critical source of fertilizer. China is also a leading exporter of fertilizer, but it put a moratorium on exports in October. Construction of new fertilizer plants in America normally takes three to five years, but supply-chain disruptions and increased government regulation will slow construction further. And plants would still need oil as an input.

在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之后，西方的制裁剪除了一个关键的化肥来源。中国也是一个主要的化肥出口国，但它在10月份暂停了出口。在美国建设新的化肥厂通常需要三到五年的时间，但是供应链的中断和政府监管的加强将进一步减缓建设。而且工厂仍将需要石油作为投入。

Pennsylvania farmer Ryan Brown said his cost for fertilizer has more than doubled from $400 a ton last year to $900 a ton this year. Despite that, he is optimistic that he’ll do all right in 2022. He runs a direct marketing beef operation that allows him to pass on much of his cost increases to buyers, but he is concerned about what is in store a year or two down the road if costs don’t come down.

宾夕法尼亚州的农民瑞安·布朗说，他的化肥成本从去年的400美元一吨增加到今年的900美元一吨，增加了一倍多。尽管如此，他还是乐观地认为他在2022年可以做得很好。他经营的牛肉直销业务使他能够将大部分成本增长转嫁给买家，但他担心如果成本不下降，一两年后的情况会如何。

With the price of fertilizer skyrocketing, he explained, “guys are going to pull back on how much they use. The more they pull back, they’re mining the soil of what nutrients are there.” Once that happens, “you reduce your yield, you reduce your bushels in the supply chain.”

他解释说，随着化肥价格的飙升，“人们将减少他们的使用量。他们越是缩减使用量，他们就越是要在挖掘土壤中的养分”。一旦发生这种情况，“你就得减少你的产量，你就得减少供应链中的粮食产量”。

Brown said he believes many family farmers will find a way to survive this year, and that next year looks like “a questionable break-even year. But I think 2024 and 2025 is make it or break it. That’s when you’re going to see guys go under, and that’s simply because they’ve mined that soil. They just won’t have the bushels there to sell, to even cover what they’ve put into it.”

布朗说，他相信许多家庭农场主会找到办法在今年生存下去，而明年看起来是“一个值得怀疑的收支平衡年。但我认为2024年和2025年将是决定成功或失败的一年。那时候你会看到有人倒下，那只是因为他们已经耗尽了地力。他们没有足够的粮食产量来出售，甚至无法弥补他们的投入”。

Jackie Boudin, a Texas farmer and rancher, said he is among those who can’t afford to fertilize his fields. “I talked to a fellow farmer today,” Boudin said. “He has not fertilized this year and I have not either.”

德州农民和牧场主杰基·布丹说，他也是那些无力为其田地施肥的人之一。“我今天和一个农民朋友聊天”， 布丹说，“他今年没有施肥，我也没有”。

“When you sell cattle, the prices used to be good enough,” he said. “And they would be if it weren’t for the crazy prices we’re paying for fertilizer, fuel, and feed. You can’t bring in enough to cover all that.”

“当你卖牛的时候，过去的价格曾经足够好”，他说，“如果不是因为我们为化肥、燃料和饲料支付的疯狂价格，它们还会是这样的。但你的收入不足以支付所有这些开支”。
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The farm has been in his family for a century, but to stay solvent now, Boudin has had to put 200 acres of his land up for sale.

他家的这个农场已经有一个世纪的历史了，但为了保持现在的偿付能力，布丹不得不将他的200英亩土地出售。

“It was land that I inherited, so I’d hoped to pass all of it on to the kids,” he said. “That was the plan and I still hope to pass the majority of it on. It’ll be a smaller herd because there’s less land, but still at least I can get back to a more operative level.”

“这是我继承的土地，所以我希望能把它全部传给孩子们”，他说，“那是我的计划，我仍然希望把它的大部分传给他们。将来的牛群规模将变小，因为土地面积减少了，但至少我仍然可以回归到一个更具操作性的水平上”。
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Despite the inflationary crisis, the Biden administration continues to push a green-energy agenda, impeding fossil-fuel production in favor of wind and solar energy. President Biden lauded oil price hikes as “an incredible transition that is taking place that, God willing, when it’s over, we’ll be stronger and the world will be stronger and less reliant on fossil fuels.”

尽管存在通胀危机，拜登政府继续推动绿色能源议程，阻碍化石燃料生产，支持风能和太阳能。拜登总统称赞油价上涨是“正在发生的令人难以置信的转变，上帝保佑，当它结束时，我们将变得更加强大，世界将变得更加强大，并减少对化石燃料的依赖”。

Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm deemed rising oil prices “an exclamation point” for the need to transition to wind and solar and “build homegrown clean energy.” Granholm pointed out previously that “if you drive an electric car, this would not be affecting you.”

能源部部长珍妮弗·格兰霍姆认为，油价上涨是向风能和太阳能过渡以及“建立本土清洁能源”的必要性的“惊叹号”。格兰霍姆此前指出，“如果你驾驶电动汽车，这不会影响到你”。

Samantha Power, head of the U.S. Agency for International Development, said the problem of fertilizer prices can be solved by “natural solutions like manure and compost, and this may hasten transitions that would have been in the interest of farmers anyway. Never let a crisis go to waste.”

美国国际开发署负责人萨曼莎·鲍尔说，化肥价格问题可以通过“粪便和堆肥等自然解决方案来解决，这可能会加速过渡，而这些过渡无论如何都是符合农民利益的。千万不要将危机白白浪费”。

Despite the dream of a carbon-neutral future, however, fossil fuels today remain a large and essential component of food production. Farmers use vast amounts of diesel fuel and fertilizer, and policies that create shortages for these components undermine America’s ability to feed itself.

然而，尽管有了一个碳中和未来的梦想，今天的化石燃料仍然是粮食生产的一个重要组成部分。农民们使用大量的柴油和化肥，而造成这些成分短缺的政策破坏了美国养活自己的能力。
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Regarding the use of manure as a substitute, Boudin said, “I clean my stalls out twice a day [for it]. But there’s way too much farming and that’s not a drop in the bucket for the amount of fertilizer we need. If you had a little old garden spot, you could probably keep it fertilized like that. You’re not going to keep the fields fertilized with manure.”

关于使用粪便作为替代品，布丹说道：“我每天都要（为此）清理我的马厩两次。但是，有太多的农业生产需求，这对于我们所需要的肥料量来说，根本就是杯水车薪。如果你有一个小的旧花园，你可能可以维持这样的施肥方式。你不可能用粪便来保持田地的肥力”。

“In our part of the country there aren’t enough large dairies or feedlots where we could get manure,” Linton said. “And it’s not that I don’t see how you could run a tractor off of solar energy, I’m sure they have a solar-powered tractor or a tractor that you can plug in, but in our part of the country, we have to run a tractor off of diesel fuel.”

“在我们这个地方，没有足够的大型乳品厂或饲料厂让我们可以获得粪便”，林顿说：“也不是说我不知道你怎么能用太阳能来运行拖拉机，我肯定他们有太阳能拖拉机或可以插电的拖拉机，但在我们这个地方，我们必须用柴油来运行拖拉机”。

While electric farm tractors are currently in development, they are not yet widely available or affordable for most large farmers. As with power generation and our electricity grid, the push to exit fossil fuels has reduced an essential energy source long before wind, solar and electric are capable of reliably filling the gap.

虽然电动农用拖拉机目前正在开发中，但对于大多数大农场主来说，它们还没有被广泛使用或能够负担得起。就像发电和我们的电网一样，在风力、太阳能和电力能够可靠地填补缺口之前，退出化石燃料的推动力已经削减了一种基本的能源。

Amidst the food shortages during the peak Covid days, many progressives expressed a lack of concern, even a disdain, for Americans who had been so “pampered” by abundance. In a Washington Post column titled, “Don’t rant about short-staffed stores and supply chain woes,” Micheline Maynard scoffed that “American consumers, their expectations pampered and catered to for decades, are not accustomed to inconvenience.”

在新冠大流行高峰期的粮食短缺中，许多进步人士对那些被丰收“宠坏了”的美国人漠不关心，甚至不屑一顾。在《华盛顿邮报》的一篇题为《不要对人手不足的商店和供应链的困境大发牢骚》的专栏中，米舍利娜·梅纳德嘲笑说：“美国消费者——他们的期望几十年来都得到了纵容和迎合——不习惯于不便”。

Senator Bernie Sanders stated that he was not troubled by the food lines he routinely saw in the Soviet unx, saying “in other countries, people don’t line up for food, rich people get the food and poor people starve to death.” And in October, then-White House press secretary Jen Psaki spoke dismissively of supply-chain breakdowns as “the tragedy of the treadmill that’s delayed.”

参议员伯尼·桑德斯表示，他对在苏联经常看到的食品排队并不感到困扰，他说：“在其他国家，人们不排队买食物，富人得到食物，穷人饿死”。 而在10月，当时的白宫新闻秘书詹·普萨基不屑一顾地将供应链断裂说成是“被拖延的踏车的悲剧”。

Asked if America could experience more severe food shortages, Linton said, “absolutely not.” Despite everything farmers are going through, she said, “we can sustain ourselves off of American agriculture. If the U.S. would quit trying to eliminate the small American farmer, there’s enough of us out here that we can grow our own food.”

当被问及美国是否会经历更严重的粮食短缺时，林顿说，“绝对不会”。她说，尽管农民正在经历这一切，但“我们可以靠美国的农业来维持自己的生活。如果美国不再试图消灭美国的小农户，我们就有足够多的人在这里，我们可以种植自己的粮食”。

Boudin said he also believed American farms would meet our needs for food. “If there’s a food shortage,” he said, “it’s going to be caused by the government. It’s not going to be a natural thing.”

布丹说，他也相信美国的农场会满足我们对食物的需求。“如果出现粮食短缺”，他说，“那将是由政府造成的。这不会是一个自然的进程”。

“We need to be food independent; that’s a national-security issue to me,” Overman said. “A country that can’t feed itself is a country that can’t protect itself. It’s very scary that we just had to go to Germany to get baby formula.”

“我们需要粮食独立；这对我来说是一个国家安全问题”，奥弗曼说，“一个不能养活自己的国家就是一个不能保护自己的国家。我们刚刚不得不去德国购买婴儿配方奶粉，这非常可怕”。

As for what consumers will see, Boudin said that “prices are going to keep going up at the grocery store. They’ve already gone up, but they’re just going to keep going higher.”

至于消费者将看到什么，布丹说：“杂货店的价格将继续上涨。它们已经上涨了，但它们将继续上涨”。